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Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Oil Company: Taxpayers Should Help Mitigate Climate Change They Caused

Here's the ultimate hypocrisy from an oil company:
Oil companies seem to think they have the most to gain by denying climate disruption.
Why? Well, carbon pollution caused by burning fossil fuels is a key cause of the climate crisis -- and without action, they'll be free to drill, extract, frack, refine, transport, and burn oil as much as they want. Apparently, it's easy for them to ignore the cascade of problems their polluting behavior creates when they've got profits to be made. But, as it happens, such irresponsible, deeply flawed logic eventually comes full circle.
In Delaware, severe storms are eroding the shoreline and affecting homes and businesses up and down the coast — including the business of an oil refinery. The functioning of the Delaware City Refining Company property just south of New Castle, a division of PBF Energy, is threatened by increasing extreme weather. In other words, climate disruption is hitting the doorstep of its source.
The refinery has tried to get help, submitting an application with the Coastal Zone Management Act seeking shoreline protections due to "tidal encroachment" -- which is one way of saying sea level rise. "The extent of the shoreline erosion has reached a point where facility infrastructure is at risk," says the permit application from the company.
You read that right -- an oil company feels jeopardized by sea level rise. And they're asking for assistance. That's like a cigarette company asking for help paying for ventilators for its executives after they've peddled tobacco for decades.

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

The Climate Dragon's Breath

Jason Box warns on the danger of letting carbon heat our planet. “Dragon Breath”—a warning of catastrophic climate change ahead?
What's the take home message, if you ask me? Because elevated atmospheric carbon from fossil fuel burning is the trigger mechanism poking the climate dragon. The trajectory we're on is to awaken a runaway climate heating that will ravage global agricultural systems leading to mass famine, conflict. Sea level rise will be a small problem by comparison. We simply MUST lower atmospheric carbon emissions. This should start with limiting the burning of fossil fuels from conventional sources; chiefly coal, followed by tar sands [block the pipeline]; reduce fossil fuel use elsewhere for example in liquid transportation fuels; engage in a massive reforestation program to have side benefits of sustainable timber, reduced desertification, animal habitat, aquaculture; and redirect fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy subsidies. This is an all hands on deck moment. We're in the age of consequences.
There are still questions, of course, but the cautionary principle makes clear we have to keep this dragon in the ground.

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Government reports due out Wednesday morning are likely to trigger big moves.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Counting Elliott Waves From the 17th Century

The Stock Market with Elliott Wave Labels from 1693 to Present Day Reveals a Bear Market Formation Since 2000

By Elliott Wave International

The following article was adapted from Robert Prechter's June 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, one of the longest-running investment letters in the business, continuously published monthly since 1979.

Figure 1 shows the stock market's waves from 1693 to the present. The circled Roman numerals denote waves of Grand Supercycle degree, the largest complete waves for which stock market data exist.

Wave I (circled) ended in 1720 at the peak of the South Sea Bubble in England. Wave II (circled) took the form of a zigzag, labeled (a)-(b)-(c); it ended in 1784. Third waves are usually extended, meaning they are longer than wave one and have clear subdivisions. This is exactly how wave III (circled) developed. It ended in 2000.

Wave III (circled) subdivides into five waves. Wave (I) ended in 1835, wave (II) in 1859, wave (III) in 1929, wave (IV) in 1932 and wave (V) in 2000.

Wave (V) subdivides into five waves, as illustrated in Figure 2. Wave I ended in 1937, wave II in 1942, wave III in 1966, wave IV in 1974 or 1982, and wave V in 2000.

The guideline of alternation indicates a high probability that wave IV will be a form other than a zigzag, i.e. a flat or a triangle. Triangles are more common than flats, so our working hypothesis is that wave IV will be a triangle.

"B" waves within flats and triangles often carry beyond the end of the preceding impulse wave. For instance, the S&P Composite index made new highs in 1968 and 1973, but both of those highs occurred within the triangle of 1966-1974 (wave IV), which alternated with the zigzag of 1937-1942 (wave II).

It might seem tempting to believe that wave (V) is still in progress. But there are five reasons to mark its termination in the year 2000.

1) As established in my book Beautiful Pictures, the low of wave four often occurs at a time that subdivides the duration of an entire impulse wave into a Fibonacci section. As shown in Figure 2, waves I through IV lasted 42 years, and wave V at the peak in 2000 lasted 26 years, producing a Fibonacci time ratio of 21/13. Those two durations in turn are related to the total duration of wave (V) by the Fibonacci ratios 21/34 and 13/34.

2) Wave V is best labeled as a completed five waves from 1974 to 2000, as shown in Figure 3. It adheres to a normal channel and peaks at the upper end. Labeling the high in 2000 as the "orthodox top" of wave V -- i.e. the end of the five-wave pattern regardless of ensuing higher highs -- is not just semantics. Elliott wave forms tell you which stock market advances are part of a true bull market and which are bear market rallies.

3) In the past, orthodox peaks of Elliott waves have been registered at extremes in the real value of stocks, not just their nominal value. The insets in Figure 3 show that wave b has not carried to a new high in real terms. In other words, the Dow today buys fewer producer materials, commodities and real money (gold) than it did in 2000, even though its nominal price is much higher. The Dow priced in real money -- gold -- topped in 1999 and has collapsed 84% since then, as shown in the bottom inset in Figure 3.

Had the U.S. maintained honest money, the Dow would be priced at 266 today, not 17,000. Much of the nominal Dow's progress after 1966 -- and all of its net progress since 2000 -- is due not to an increase in corporate values but to a decrease in value for the Federal Reserve's accounting unit (the "dollar"), both by deliberate central-bank policy and by the pyramiding of credit throughout the financial system, much of which has been made possible by the use of force, aka government policy.

4) The year 2000 was the end of the one-way good times. That is when the all-time high was recorded in the major averages' valuation as measured by annual dividend yield, price to book value, and the corporate bond/stock yield spread. Indicators such as Gallup's poll of Economic Confidence peaked then, too, by a wide margin. That year, economists were proclaiming a "New Economy" that would never falter. All of these events support the case that wave V, and therefore wave (V), and therefore wave III, ended in 2000.

5) Finally, even the market top of 2007 was more important than what's happening now.

The year 2007 came on the heels of the all-time high in real estate values in 2006, a time that marked both the seemingly realized American Dream of universal home ownership and its turn toward its dissolution. It was a time of major change in American finances.

The year 2014 has none of these attributes. Real estate, commodities and precious metals are in bear markets, and the economy has stalled. The only thing rising is stocks.

We can therefore make a case that even 2007 was the more important market top for the average American. But we can't credit the year 2014 with anything nearly as grand as what was happening at the tops of 2000 and 2007. This lack of importance fits the b-wave label.

A Bear Market Formation Since 2000

The rest of this report is available only to Robert Prechter's free email subscribers at Elliott Wave International. You will see Prechter's analysis of an epic stock market pattern tracing out right now that has never occurred in recorded stock market history, going back 300 years -- plus its imminent and dangerous implications for investors. Read the report now to be certain your portfolio is ready. Click here.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Getting Off This Rock

Peter Diamandis thinks it's time we got off this rock.
We just celebrated the 45th anniversary of the Apollo 11 Moon landing.
The fact that we went to the Moon with 1960s technology is extraordinary.
The fact that we never went back is shameful.
Should we send another mission to the Moon? Absolutely.
But it should be a private effort -- incentivized by government, but not carried out by the government.
And it should be part of humanity's expansion to Mars and the near-Earth asteroids as well.
Thousands of years from now, it will be these next few decades that are remembered as the moment in time when the human race became a multi-planetary species.
You are alive during these times and it's part of your legacy.
But this time, when we go back to the Moon, it won't be with an Apollo-style program.
Missions this complex now require the kind of cost efficiencies and risk mindset found only in today's commercial industries and entrepreneurial risk takers.
To be affordable and successful, these missions need to use the accelerating (exponential) technologies we are developing today in our labs and commercial companies.
Unfortunately, our traditional NASA approach was to use 20-year-old stuff -- or, in other words, only use technology that has been proven to work time and time again.
Did you know that Curiosity -- the pinnacle of our Mars exploration program roving around the surface of Mars today -- is using a PowerPC processor similar to that in your 1997 PowerBook G3 Laptop... 17 years ago?
The other challenge with our traditional government space programs is their "start-stop-start-stop-CANCEL" cycle. The biggest of programs take a decade to execute (and thereby span several election cycles). As such, time and time again we've seen the most audacious government ventures canceled as Democrats scrap Republican initiatives, and Republicans sideline Democratic programs. Consequently, nothing gets accomplished.
It is only with a commercial mindset and commercial technologies (supported by government incentives) that we will achieve the long-term exploration, commercialization and industrialization of space.
The systems pioneered by a company like SpaceX, with its Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon2 spacecraft (which allows for propulsive landing), is a perfect example of what we need to go back to the Moon and beyond to Mars.
By the way, have you ever heard Elon speak about his plans for Mars? He's publicly committed to providing round-trip human transport to the Red Planet for $500,000 per person in about 15 years.
I for one, wouldn't bet against him.
At the same time, my own company Planetary Resources has a team of 40 engineers up in Redmond, Washington building a new generation of autonomous 'space drones' called the Arkyd-200 and Arkyd-300 spacecraft. These are drones designed to find and prospect near-Earth asteroids for strategic metals and rocket fuel (hydrogen and oxygen).
Finally, I'm very proud of our Google Lunar XPRIZE, which has offered $30M (of Google's money) in purses, plus up to $30 million in additional NASA contracts, to the first private team to build a robot, land it on the Moon, send back photos and videos, and rover (or hop) 500 meters.
In success, all of these commercial projects and initiatives will spark the creation of a cottage industry of exploration companies that will help bring down the cost of accessing the Moon, Mars and the asteroids by 50-fold.
These next few decades represent the window in time when the human race is moving irreversibly off the Earth. Thousands of years from now, when humanity looks back, it will be our generation who took the bold steps beyond the bounds of Earth.
Konstantin E. Tsiolkovsky, the Russian scientist considered the father of modern-day cosmonautics, famously said, "Earth is the cradle of humanity, but one cannot remain in the cradle forever." It's time for us to get out of the cradle and start exploring the boundless resources of space.
All of this is being made possible by exponential technologies. Ultimately we are demonetizing and democratizing access to space and near-Earth resources.
If you'd like to learn more about how this is all happening, considering joining this year at Abundance 360.
In the meantime, when you look up at the Moon at night, know that you and your children will actually have the opportunity to travel there one day soon.
Every weekend I send out a "Tech Blog" like this one. If you want to sign up, go to www.AbundanceHub.com and sign up for this and my Abundance blogs. And if you want my personal coaching on how to similarly drive industry breakthroughs, consider joining my Abundance 360 membership program for entrepreneurs.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Diagonal triangles to new highs are traps!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Message From a Plutocrat: The Pitchforks Are Coming

Nick Hanauer is a Seattle-based entrepreneur and who is a fabulously-wealthy plutocrat, mostly due to his early days investment in Amazon.com. He has an important message for his fellow plutocrats:
Dear 1%ers, many of our fellow citizens are starting to believe that capitalism itself is the problem. I disagree, and I’m sure you do too. Capitalism, when well managed, is the greatest social technology ever invented to create prosperity in human societies. But capitalism left unchecked tends toward concentration and collapse. It can be managed either to benefit the few in the near term or the many in the long term. The work of democracies is to bend it to the latter. That is why investments in the middle class work. And tax breaks for rich people like us don’t. Balancing the power of workers and billionaires by raising the minimum wage isn’t bad for capitalism. It’s an indispensable tool smart capitalists use to make capitalism stable and sustainable. And no one has a bigger stake in that than zillionaires like us.

The oldest and most important conflict in human societies is the battle over the concentration of wealth and power. The folks like us at the top have always told those at the bottom that our respective positions are righteous and good for all. Historically, we called that divine right. Today we have trickle-down economics.

What nonsense this is. Am I really such a superior person? Do I belong at the center of the moral as well as economic universe? Do you?

My family, the Hanauers, started in Germany selling feathers and pillows. They got chased out of Germany by Hitler and ended up in Seattle owning another pillow company. Three generations later, I benefited from that. Then I got as lucky as a person could possibly get in the Internet age by having a buddy in Seattle named Bezos. I look at the average Joe on the street, and I say, “There but for the grace of Jeff go I.” Even the best of us, in the worst of circumstances, are barefoot, standing by a dirt road, selling fruit. We should never forget that, or forget that the United States of America and its middle class made us, rather than the other way around.

Or we could sit back, do nothing, enjoy our yachts. And wait for the pitchforks.

It Could Be Worse Here: It Could Be Australia

Mike Stasse's latest blog from Damn the Matrix: Money Rules reminds us that no matter how bad things are today in America, it's worse in Australia:
Over the past 15 or 20 years, society switched from being a society to being an economy. Today, everything has a price, and nobody does anything anymore unless there's "money in it". Take Universities; fifty years ago, one could go to University, for free, and just learn. that's what Universities were always for. To learn. Today Universities are all about money, and learning how to make money. I clearly remember our son, who at the time was doing his first science degree, coming home from University one night, scathing of the number of people studying business studies' or economics or any number of other money making pursuits on offer at these institutions.
Alex now has two science degrees and a Master.. and can't get work. It was, admittedly, bad timing on his part, Australia has elected an anti-science government that only believes in making money and measuring everything society, oops I mean the economy, does in dollar terms. An economy does not need scientists, it needs bean counters. so funding for Australia's premiere scientific organisation, CSIRO, is being defunded, and is now starting to sack scientists. Just when we need them most.
Continue reading Money Rules

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. One last hurrah for this cycle ahead.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

14 Concepts That Will Be Obsolete After Catastrophic Climate Change

The Washington Post has a great excerpt from The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View From the Future:
It's 2393. A historian is recounting the collapse of Western civilization due to catastrophic climate change. In her anniversary lecture, she explains how the carbon-combustion complex and blind faith in free markets during the late 20th and early 21st centuries conspired to prevent action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, until it was too late to prevent the Mass Migration of 2093 and the inundation of the world's great coastal cities. But first, she has to introduce a few old concepts and terms that may no longer be familiar to her audience:
Bridge to renewables
The logical fallacy, popular in the first decades of the 21st century, that the problem of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil-fuel combustion could be solved by burning more fossil fuels, particularly natural gas. The fallacy rested on an incomplete analysis, which considered only the physical byproducts of combustion, particularly in electricity generation, and not the other factors that controlled overall energy use and net release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere.
Read about 13 more concepts that will be obsolete after catastrophic climate change here..

Climate Deniers Now Using Bad Economics To Slow Switchover To Solar

The era when anyone could reasonably take climate change deniers seriously is quickly passing. Only educationally-deprived individuals truly believe the climate isn't being changed by mankind's burning of fossil fuels. Thus, it appears that we can get on with mitigating the problem and moving completely away from fossil fuels as rapidly as possible.

It seems that the deniers are now clutching at bad economics to make their case, though. Today, we read an article in The Economist which contains ludicrous attempts to deny climate change based upon economics. Now, we know economics isn't really a science—which is why the deniers love it. They've never been big fans of science, of course. But, somehow they have been able to sneak an article in the magazine which makes some obvious errors. Take this introduction for example:

Whereas the cost of a solar panel is easy to calculate, the cost of electricity is harder to assess. It depends not only on the fuel used, but also on the cost of capital (power plants take years to build and last for decades), how much of the time a plant operates, and whether it generates power at times of peak demand. To take account of all this, economists use "levelised costs"—the net present value of all costs (capital and operating) of a generating unit over its life cycle, divided by the number of megawatt-hours of electricity it is expected to supply.
The trouble, as Paul Joskow of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has pointed out, is that levelised costs do not take account of the costs of intermittency.* Wind power is not generated on a calm day, nor solar power at night, so conventional power plants must be kept on standby—but are not included in the levelised cost of renewables. Electricity demand also varies during the day in ways that the supply from wind and solar generation may not match, so even if renewable forms of energy have the same levelised cost as conventional ones, the value of the power they produce may be lower. In short, levelised costs are poor at comparing different forms of power generation.
That's the setup—did it make your eyes blur? That was its intent. They introduce the concept of accounting for costs of intermittency. Well, of course, that's pretty basic stuff. But, then they go on to ignore the obvious advent of cheap energy storage—something we've been telling you about for years here. They simply dismiss it, but it removes the whole problem of intermittency and thereby destroys their whole argument.
If all the costs and benefits are totted up using Mr Frank's calculation, solar power is by far the most expensive way of reducing carbon emissions. It costs $189,000 to replace 1MW per year of power from coal. Wind is the next most expensive. Hydropower provides a modest net benefit. But the most cost-effective zero-emission technology is nuclear power. The pattern is similar if 1MW of gas-fired capacity is displaced instead of coal. And all this assumes a carbon price of $50 a tonne. Using actual carbon prices (below $10 in Europe) makes solar and wind look even worse. The carbon price would have to rise to $185 a tonne before solar power shows a net benefit.
Yes, if you never learned how to think, that's the case. The environmental impact of carbon is, and never will be, $10 per ton. Their estimate of the cost of carbon is ludicrously insane (exactly what you expect of a denier, of course). Solar power plus storage is not just cheaper than coal, it's cheaper than every other energy source, including nuclear. It uses that nuclear power plant that's safely located almost a hundred million miles away. But, the deniers know that by making blatant lies about the cost of carbon and the omission of storage, they will keep their fossil-fuel burning plants alive. Well, it's not going to happen. The price of electricity from solar is actually declining while the price of fossil-fuel energy is increasing. And, guess what? Energy consumers can tell the difference in their utility bills.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Strange Holes Appearing in the Arctic

Large holes are beginning to appear in Siberia. They could be due to melting methane deposits creating natural gas explosions. As the Arctic warms much faster than the rest of the Earth due to Global Warming, we may be seeing just a preview of what's to come.

Russia Beyond the Headlines reports:

The strange holes in the earth found in the northern tundra on Russian territory in July could mean the beginning of irreversible changes in the climate of our planet. According to Russian scientists, the most likely reason for the formation of such holes is the emission of natural gas, which may be caused by global warming.
Over the last month, two strange holes have mysteriously opened up in tundra of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area (YNAO) in the Russian Arctic, causing great excitement among Russia's scientific community.
Researchers are now examining the giant holes in a bid to discover the reason for their sudden appearance.
According to geologist Konstantin Ranks, the emission of natural gas that scholars consider the most likely explanation for the formation of the holes may be a consequence of global warming.
Glaciologists from the sub-Arctic research and study unit in Tyumen say that permafrost temperatures are rising steadily in the region of the Bovanenkovskoye gas field on the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic, near where the first hole was discovered. Forty years ago it was on average about eight degrees below zero, but now in certain areas it is only minus three. "Perhaps this is precisely why the process of releasing methane from crystalline ice traps started in the depths of the northern tundra," wrote Ranks in an article published by the Slon.ru website.
The second large funnel to appear in the last month was discovered in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Area on 21 July, and the finding was subsequently announced on the Rossiya 1 television channel. The hole has a diameter of approximately 15 meters and snow is visible inside it.
Scholars noted that pieces of earth were scattered near the crater and at a distance of 328-394 feet, which indicates that rather than collapsing, rock was in fact ejected. Moreover, traces of charring, scorching, or any other evidence indicating a thermal explosion have not been found, so the possibility of a meteorite can be ruled out. Scientists believe that the frozen earth was smashed outwards by powerful pressure from below; so-called swamp gas can act in a similar fashion.
The video clip depicting the first crater near the village of Bovanenkovo appeared on the internet on 10 July.
The recording immediately attracted the attention of the public (at the moment the total number of views of various videos about the craters that have been found has reached several dozen million).

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Are we there yet? A: We're very close.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Of our two lead dogs, which should you be watching? A: Not NDX

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wait To Buy a New Car

Why wait? Well, in just a few years, your new car will:
  • Be self-driving—leave the driving to it.
  • Be electric—cheap electric cars mean much more economical traveling.

So, how long will you need to wait? Looks like it will be about six years.

Geomagnetic Model Predicts Stock Market High

John Hampson's Geomagnetic Model for the stock market in 2014 is predicting a high for the stock market this week:
Source: S O L A R C Y C L E S

Russia's Achilles Heel

Russia has a huge Achilles Heel: Oil and natural gas sales accounted for 68% of Russia’s total export revenues in 2013:
Russia is a major exporter of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas. Sales of these fuels accounted for 68% of Russia's total export revenues in 2013, based on data from Russia's Federal Customs Service. Russia received almost four times as much revenue from exports of crude oil and petroleum products as from natural gas. Crude oil exports alone were greater in value than the value of all non-oil and natural gas exports.
Europe, including Turkey, receives most of Russia's exports of crude oil and products, as well as virtually all exports of natural gas. Asia (especially China) receives substantial volumes of crude oil and some liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. Recently, Russia finalized a 30-year, $400 billion deal to supply China with natural gas from fields in Eastern Siberia, which will further increase Russian export revenues. North America imports some Russian petroleum products, particularly unfinished oils used in refineries.
Although Russia exports less crude oil and less natural gas than it consumes domestically, domestic sales of crude oil and natural gas are much lower in value than exports because of vertical integration of the oil and natural gas industry and subsidized domestic prices.
Many Russian oil firms are vertically integrated, owning both the oil fields and refineries that process crude oil. These firms can sell crude oil directly to their own refineries at low prices. Domestic natural gas prices are also subsidized, forcing Russian companies like Gazprom to use export revenue to fund investment in new infrastructure and projects. EIA estimates that Russian domestic sales of natural gas and crude oil were about $20 billion in 2013, based on data from IHS Energy.
Although revenue from domestic sales of crude oil and natural gas in 2013 was significantly lower than revenue from exports, Russian domestic sales of petroleum products, particularly motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil, were approximately $102 billion, similar to revenue from product exports.
Oil and natural gas activities make up a large portion of Russia's federal budget. According to the Ministry of Finance, 50% of Russia's federal budget revenue in 2013 came from mineral extraction taxes and export customs duties on oil and natural gas.

EWI Pro Services Open House, July 23-30

We've never done this before.

That's the message we received from our friends at Elliott Wave International regarding a new, one-of-a-kind event that they're hosting.

On July 23-30, for 7 days only, they are "opening the doors" to the entire line of their intensive Pro Services -- free.

Pro Services are the most nimble, opportunity-rich, professional-grade forecasting services at EWI -- covering 48 of the world's top markets, some 24 hours a day, complete with detailed charts and analysis.

Chances are, Pro Services are like nothing you've experienced before.

Why are they "opening the doors"? Previously, Pro Services were reserved mostly for institutional subscribers. Today, everyone can trade the markets only the pros could trade before. They want you to experience the quality of professional-grade market forecasting. We think you'll love it.

Join EWI July 23-30 and get intensive Pro Service forecasts for 5 major market categories:

  1. Stocks (U.S., Europe, Asia)
  2. Currencies (11 biggest forex pairs)
  3. Metals (futures: precious and industrial)
  4. Energy (futures: crude, Brent, nat gas and more)
  5. Interest Rates (futures: bonds in U.S., Europe, Asia)

Whatever market you are into, chances are, Pro Services have a forecast for you.

NOTE -- LIMITED SEATING: Participation in this one-of-a-kind event is limited to the first 5,000 registrants. The sooner you register, the higher your chances to get a seat -- so please reserve your seat now!

Register to get your free seat today -- and help us make this free event worth repeating »

About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Traditional divergences at significant tops are appearing in the stock market.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, July 21, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Consolidation was the name of the game today. A particular pattern which could lead to big profits?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis PDF have been updated on the website. Correction continues despite bounce.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Sliding down the slippery slope is getting popular nowadays in the stock market.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Making Money in Solar (Video)

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Let's look back at the 2007 stock market top today and see how it parallels today.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, July 14, 2014

(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market

(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market
Steve Hochberg on the state of retail money market funds vs. stock market capitalization, filmed at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The article below is adapted from the transcript of the live presentation above, originally recorded at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show. It features Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg. Hochberg is co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, one of EWI's flasgship market letters. Click here for a free excerpt from Hochberg's latest issue.

This chart is a picture of retail money market funds as a percentage of market capitalization.

In other words, when people are super bullish, they don't want to hold any money in money market funds. They want to invest it, right?

Because why hold money aside when you don't think the market's going down, when it can be in the market if you think it's going up?

When people are super bearish, what do they do? They take money out of the market, and they put it into money market funds hoping to wait out what they view as a declining market.

Now look at the upward spikes in this chart.

You can see that there was a high percentage of money in money market funds as a percentage of market cap back in 1982 as the market was bottoming and starting that great bull market.

Shortly after the 1987 crash, people got really scared; and again in 2002 after the market had been down 38%, and also in 2009 after the market declined 58%.

We are now at a new all-time low in the percentage of retail money market funds relative of market cap at just 2.8%. In other words, people are fully invested.

Investors are so optimistic about the future, they see no reason to keep money in money market funds in case the market goes down.

This is a classic warning sign that a reversal is ahead.

For a free excerpt from Steve Hochberg's latest, July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here. For a limited-time, EWI is giving away free access to a big chunk from the latest issue, complete with specific forecasts, analysis and labeled charts.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Another bearish, countertrend rally? Watch that next step down!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thomson-Reuters Predict Solar Power Will Dominate Energy by 2025

You heard it here first, though. We predicted that solar energy will provide 100% of our energy needs by 2027. Now, just over a year since we made that projection, a new study by Thomson-Reuters analysts says that by 2025, solar will provide the majority of our energy. The newly-released study says:
This paper is a compilation of 10 innovation predictions for the world in 2025, based on research done by Thomson Reuters analysts using the company's patent and scientific literature solutions...
In 2025, Solar is the largest source of energy on the planet.
Methods for harvesting, storing and converting solar energy are so advanced and efficient that it becomes the primary source of energy on our planet.
Thanks to improvements in photovoltaic technology, chemical bonding, photocatalysts and three-dimensional nanoscale heterojunctions, the use of the sun as the world's primary source of energy is no longer for the environmentally conscious select; it is for the masses.
The sun's energy will be harvested much more efficiently. Its energy will be stored and used when needed. And the conversion of solar power will be much more efficient. Solar thermal and solar photovoltaic energy (from new dye-sensitized and thin-film materials) will heat buildings, water, and provide energy for devices in the home and office, as well as in retail buildings and manufacturing facilities.
Chemical bonds, a photosynthetic process, will make solar energy available when needed. Increased efficiency of energy conversion will be realized through new materials such as cobalt-oxide and titanium-oxide nanostructures, photocatalysts and 3D nanoscale heterojunctions; while new methods using mesoscopic oxide films sensitized by dyes or quantum dots will contribute to improving the 2014 solar conversion efficiency rate of less than 10 percent.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Countertrend rally time is here.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Death Knell For Fossil Fuels

Bloomberg News reports that Shakeout Threatens Shale Patch as Frackers Go for Broke:
The U.S. shale patch is facing a shakeout as drillers struggle to keep pace with the relentless spending needed to get oil and gas out of the ground.
Shale debt has almost doubled over the last four years while revenue has gained just 5.6 percent, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of 61 shale drillers. A dozen of those wildcatters are spending at least 10 percent of their sales on interest compared with Exxon Mobil Corp.'s 0.1 percent. "The list of companies that are financially stressed is considerable," said Benjamin Dell, managing partner of Kimmeridge Energy, a New York-based alternative asset manager focused on energy. "Not everyone is going to survive. We've seen it before."
Some investors are already bailing out. On May 23, Loews Corp. (L), the holding company run by New York's Tisch family, said it is weighing the sale of HighMount Exploration & Production LLC, its oil and natural gas subsidiary, at a loss.
HighMount lost $20 million in the first three months of the year, after being unprofitable in 2013 and 2012, Loews said it its financial reports. As with much of the industry, HighMount has shifted its focus to oil after natural gas prices plunged and has struggled to find sites worth developing, company records show.
Mary Skafidas, a spokeswoman for Loews, declined comment.
In a measure of the shale industry's financial burden, debt hit $163.6 billion in the first quarter, according to company records compiled by Bloomberg on 61 exploration and production companies that target oil and natural gas trapped in deep underground layers of rock. And companies including Forest Oil Corp. (FST), Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) and Quicksilver Resources Inc. (KWK) racked up interest expense of more than 20 percent.
So much for the Bridge To Nowhere that natural gas represents. By 2020, the fracking boom will be just another big bust. Who will benefit from the bust? Solar power will. By the latter half of the third decade of the twenty-first century, solar will be the dominant source of energy on this planet.

Mike Stasse: The Crash Rachets Up

Mike Stasse writes from Australia:

It’s often been said among Peakniks that ‘the crash’ is not an event that will occur smoothly or suddenly, but rather in steps… so a sudden downturn like what happened when the GFC first hit would hit a low, followed by perhaps another rise at best, or a plateau. Then another sharp downturn would shape the next step down to an even lower plateau. How long these plateaus last of course is anyone’s guess, and they are at the mercy of events. Who can guess what might happen in the Middle East next?

Just such a downturn may now not be far away.

Bank lending, it seems, has been setting new records since mid-2013, especially in the USA. If the last credit bubble – when too many dodgy loans were made by overenthusiastic loan officers before it all blew up in 2008 – was spectacular, this one is even more so….. Based on the loose principle that the US economy can only grow if bank lending balloons, it appears that the lowering ERoEI of the oil industry may be at its core.

This is what the auspicious chart of core bank loans outstanding looks like (via OtterWood Capital Management):

http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/US-Core-bank_loans.png

This time around, economists have been using the borrowing binge as proof that investment was suddenly picking up, that these investments would filter into economic growth, and that after all this time of mirages and sour disappointments, the ever elusive “escape velocity” would finally come……..

It turns out that that jump in investment – powered by bank lending, investment is a code word for debt – that economists have so enthusiastically shown as ‘proof of return to normal’ has been nothing but an illusion. And no, it wasn’t some blogger spouting off pessimistic data, but the Financial Times, quoting such sources as “senior executives” inside major US banks who “are privately warning” that this new lending binge “should not be seen as evidence of an economic recovery.”

Instead, much of the borrowed money was used “to fund payouts to shareholders” via dividends (remember Shell..?) and stock buybacks and to “finance acquisitions,” the source said. None of these activities are productive, in fact, these acquisitions lead companies to boast about synergies and labour efficiencies – that is, redundencies – at either end, as these businesses get consolidated.

And here’s the sting…… Part of that borrowed money is being ploughed into the American fracking boom where drillers on the terrible treadmill that fracking really is have to contend with terribly sharp depletion rates, forcing them to drill ever more wells just to maintain production. And they can never get off that treadmill because production would soon collapse if they did, and with each new well they have to borrow more, and then they require more production just to service the ballooning debt. Revenues have risen 5.6% over the last four years while debt that drillers have piled on has nearly doubled [read... The Fracking Shakeout].

Watch this space, things might get awfully interesting soon…… because as soon as Peak Fracking hits, and that is bound to happen before 2020, all hell will break loose.

We Get the Government We Deserve

Without taking a position on whether GMOs are good or bad, we note that the public gets the government it deserves through the electoral process. Thus, we get this kind of government as reported by NewsMax in Americans Too Stupid for GMO Labeling:
It's pretty rare that members of Congress and all the witnesses they've called will declare out loud that Americans are just too ignorant to be given a piece of information, but that was a key conclusion of a session of the House Agriculture Committee this week.
The issue was genetically modified organisms, or GMOs. Members of the subcommittee on Horticulture, Research, Biotechnology, and Foreign Agriculture, as well as their four experts, say that the genetic engineering of food crops has been a success, and that people who oppose GMOs, or want them labeled, are alarmists who thrive on fear and ignorance.
Entirely missing from the hearing was any suggestion that there are real concerns about the impact of genetically engineered food, such as the growth of pesticide-resistant "super weeds," over-reliance on single-crop factory farming, decreased biodiversity, and the lack of a consistent approval process.
Clearly, Congress' opinion of the electorate matches the electorate's opinion of Congress.

Friday, July 11, 2014

It's All About Storage: Batteries Versus Super Capacitors (Video)

Our energy future will depend upon being able to store renewable energy, which inherently is intermittent energy. Storage is the key. In this video, the difference between a battery and a super capacitor is explained:

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Supermoons All Summer (Video)

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Don't ignore stinky breadth!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Less Work, More Leisure

Peter Diamandis writes in Evidence of Abundance #1: More Leisure, Less Work that:
This first blog in my "Evidence of Abundance" series is about an Increasing Abundance of Leisure. My goal, with your help, is to get the data out as far and wide as possible.
Evidence of Abundance: Work and Leisure
It's easy to forget that for centuries — for millenia — the "workforce" was ALL of us.
A few people lived in luxury, but the vast majority were slaves and serfs who did the work. In 1750, 75 percent of people on the planet worked to support the top 25 percent.
The more interesting question is how we are going to deal with the fact that most jobs are going to disappear. Just today, IBM announced it would be building an artificial human brain. Not only will it have just as many neurons as a human brain, it won't use any more power than a human brain. And, it will think much faster than a human brain because electronic circuits run millions of times faster than a human brain. Remember, this is the company which produced Watson, a computer which defeated the two best Jeopardy champions. It won't be long before the term “labor” will be as obsolete as the horse-drawn carriage. Jobs will be done by computers. We will have leisure, but will we have income to go around?

How Hot Will Your USA City Be in 2100?


If it feels hot to you now in the dog days of this summer, imagine a time when summertime Boston starts feeling like Miami and even Montana sizzles.

The Prosumer Revolution in Energy Heats Up Down Under

One of our favorite bloggers, Mike Stasse, writes about the movement toward going off-grid in Australia. Apparently, the economics are greatly favoring those who have solar installations going off-grid now:
I know I only wrote about The Electricity Industry's Death Spiral just a couple of days ago, but the speed at which things are now moving is almost bewildering. The subject of disconnecting from the grid and moving to battery storage actually made it to the evening news last night I wish I could post a link to this video clip, but it looks like the ABC isn't playing ball. In truth, the owner of the system did such a bad job explaining how it works I doubt installers will be rushed off their feet just yet.
The new government has been simultanously trying to rollback the carbon tax instituted by the previous government and raise energy prices as well. As Mike points out, “So if people in Qld lose what paltry feed in tariff they were getting, what incentive is there to stay connected?” Indeed, the prosumer revolution is alive and well and bound to grow stronger Down Under.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the second shoe about to drop? Sure looks like it will.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Unmistakable Signs of the Current Recession

Government tells us the economy is expanding. But, they lie. John Mauldin has some quotes from Charles Gave:
Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.
...At a moral level, I would also question the validity of a system that no longer allows its weakest members to get by. This is why I contend that the post-2010 policy of ZIRP has had little to do with protecting the health of the capitalist system, but rather has been a ruse to protect the rich. The policy is not only failing to deliver growth, it is also immoral.
...Pretty much every equity bear market in the US over the last 30 years has occurred against the backdrop of the working poor experiencing a decline in living standards (the one exception was 1987 when the market was reacting to over valuation).
When people in the future look back on this era, what will they write? It should be very interesting reading.

Government Lies Expanding

The government lies about inflation, employment and, now, GDP.

After the atrocious drop in Gross Domestic Product in 1Q2014, government apparatchiks are coming up with creative ways to bolster GDP. Their latest gimmick is to reclassify some expenses as income. That moves them to the positive side of the ledger, not in reality, but in the fantasy world of GDP. GDP has always been a very poor way to judge the economy. For instance, if the crime rate goes up, the government hires more police. That's obviously an expense and should subtract from GDP. But, no, government considers that “growth.”

Now, the government has decided that Research & Development expenses should be counted as income when it comes to GDP. From an expenditure to income, government crazies think no one notices that GDP no longer is a gauge of the economy's health. Eventually, they are going to reclassify more expenditures to income and we'll never have another official recession.

Can't wait for that day.

Our take: the economy went into recession in the 1990s and has been in one ever since. The government continually adds to the GDP lies, first by understating inflation (which shows negative growth in GDP for the past few decades), and now by inverting the meaning of “income.”

If you reported your income and expenses on your income tax return the way the government does, you'd be in prison before long. And, you'd be counted as “employed” as well.

Our Moment of Truth Has Arrived

The Deep Decarbonization Report published yesterday makes some very serious points that underline the gravity of climate change:
Our moment of truth has arrived. Twenty-two years ago at the Rio Earth Summit, the world's governments recognized that humanity was changing the climate system profoundly, posing risks for human wellbeing and sustainable development prospects. They adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) two years later, and resolved to protect the planet and promote sustainable development by stabilizing "GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
Yet, more than two decades later, GHG emissions are stil far from stabilizing. In 1994, at the first Conference of the Parties (COP1) of the UNFCCC, CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and direct CO2 emissions from industrial processes were 23 bil ion tons (gigatons or Gt), and the CO2 concentration stood at 358.8 parts per mil ion (ppm). By 2013, at COP19, global CO2 emissions had soared to 36 bil ion tons, and CO2 concentrations stood at 396.5 ppm.
Every country has signed on to fight against human-induced climate change, but the world remains dangerously off course from the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC. There is, as of yet, no prospect of stabilizing GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced climate change. The Parties to the UNFCCC have now had 19 annual meetings since 1994. These COPs have borne the world's hopes and disappointments in our collective inability to date to head off a growing catastrophe.
At the 16th COP held in Cancun in 2010, the world's governments committed to a new and clear target: to keep the global rise in mean surface temperature below 2°C compared with the pre-industrial average. The COP added a proviso that the 2°C limit may be revised downward to 1.5°C in light of available science. The 2°C limit is the world's most explicit, and many climate scientists would say last-ditch, effort to operationalize the goal of avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Pay Me Now Or Pay Me Later

As a species, we have a choice: pay to fix the climate now, or pay much more later (if it's possible to fix the problem at all).

The Daily Climate's Marianne Lavelle writes::
The world lacks not only the will, but the technology to achieve the deep carbon cuts needed to avert catastrophic climate change, according to a report presented to the United Nations today by leading research institutions in 15 countries.
The scientists maintain that limiting global warming to 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels is still achievable — just barely — but will require an international multi-billion dollar commitment to research, development, demonstration, and diffusion of low-carbon technology.
"The deep transformation that is required depends on technology that is not yet operating at scale ... and for which scalability is not yet proven," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), which coordinated the report.
Involving scientists from 30 institutions in 15 countries that together account for 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the report is the first global cooperative effort to identify practical pathways to achieving a low-carbon economy 2050, SDSN said.
The group considers its work an interim document, which it posted publicly for comment this morning after a briefing for United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon.
In a statement, Ban praised the effort, saying the report "shows what's possible."
But the document's key message is sobering. Sachs said the research indicates that commitments for emissions cuts are necessary but alone are insufficient to address the climate crisis. Nations also need to commit to investment in the scientific research that will be needed to carry out any of those pledges.
World carbon emissions, which today average 5 tons per person per year, should be reduced to 1.6 tons per person by the middle of the century, the report concluded. That's the carbon footprint of a typical citizen of Senegal today, according to the World Resources Institute's climate data explorer.
Americans average about 18 tons per person in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, the report said.
To bring emissions down dramatically, the report singled out five key areas where major scientific advances are needed to ensure technology was affordable and widely available: carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage and grid management, advanced nuclear energy, vehicles and advanced biofuels, and so-called "negative" emissions technologies. Major advances are also needed in industrial processes like cement- and steel-making, the authors said.
"The world has been very gimmicky in making announcements [on carbon cuts], but what matters is the carbon arithmetic on this," said Sachs. Negotiators, he added, "have spent 99 percent of their time arguing on allocations" — how much each country should cut emissions — "and only 1 percent of their time talking about 99 percent of the issue" — the practical means for achieving such cuts.
The potential pathways to deep decarbonization mapped out in the report are different for each country, and the technological challenges vary and are greater in some nations than in others.
Jim Williams, chief scientist at the San Francisco-based consulting firm Energy + Environmental Economics (E3), led the development of scenarios for the United States. He said his team made a point of sticking to technologies that already were commercialized or nearly commercial. "We tried to demonstrate that achieving this doesn't necessarily require anything exotic," he said. "These pathways show national and local policymakers, from presidents to mayors, what it takes to decarbonize their economies."
For instance, four potential pathways allow the U.S. to achieve an 85 percent emissions reduction with strong economic growth, his team found. With high deployment of either renewable or nuclear energy, technologies like CCS that are not yet commercialized would not be needed.
In other countries, though, Williams said that the need for technological advances is more urgently felt.
For example, Canada can achieve a 90 percent reduction in emissions while tripling the size of its economy by 2050. That scenario assumes continued expansion of the oil sands, primarily for export to other countries. But the report said that will require "transformative technologies that are not yet commercially available" for mitigating greenhouse gases at every stage of the process, including extraction, processing, and end-use.
Scientists plan to put dollar figures on how much investment is needed in technology research in their final report, due next year. Sachs guessed that the scale of effort needed on just one technology — carbon capture and storage — would approach $50 billion over five to ten years, shared among several nations and public and private sectors. "The real question for CCS is, 'Could China depend on it on large scale? Could India depend on it? Could the United States?' "
Sachs said the climate crisis requires a scientific research effort on the scale of the sequencing of the human genome, the moon shot or the Manhattan Project.
"The U.S. now invests $30 billion in biomedical research through [the National Institutes of Health] but one-tenth of that in low-carbon technology. It's almost absurd, given the stakes."

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Where we found support today was already on our chart.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Attacking the Internet

Cyber criminals are afoot, attacking the internet. And, they're familiar names like Comcast and AT&T.

These corporate raiders think they've bought regulators and can usurp the internet for their own profits. It's time we showed these hooligans the internet is not for sale to the highest bidder. Howard Dean sends this video to the FCC for consideration to that end:

EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.0 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970.
Natural gas working inventories on June 27 totaled 1.93 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 0.67 Tcf (26%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.79 Tcf (29%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). Projected natural gas working inventories reach 3.43 Tcf at the end of October, 0.38 Tcf below the level at the same time last year. EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013, will average $4.77/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.50/MMBtu in 2015.

Monday, July 07, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What's keeping the bubble expanding? We explain it.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Weekly Analysis PDF Now Available

Our weekly analysis of many market is now available on the website for subscribers.

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Have a great Fourth of July weekend!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Technological Unemployment (Video)

Peter Diamandis on Technological Unemployment:

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What goes down, must come back up!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

We Can See What the Dinosaurs Could Not

The dinosaurs were the dominant species—until an asteroid slammed into the Yucatan 65 million years ago and wiped their habitat out. We don't want to be next dinosaurs. That's why the B612 Foundation is building Sentinel.

We Don’t Have to Play Cosmic Russian Roulette With Asteroids Anymore from Singularity University tells us:

In the grand scheme, impacts are pretty common. Impacts like the Tunguska event in 1908 when a suspected asteroid flattened 1,000 square miles of forest in Siberia. Or last year, when a smaller asteroid detonated with a force equivalent to some 440 kilotons of TNT over the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia shattering windows and frightening residents.
In the last decade, the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty system to detect atmospheric nuclear weapons tests hasn't heard a single bomb blast—but it's recorded scores of asteroid explosions. B612 made an animation of 26 of these from 1 to 600 kilotons. (The atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945 was 15 kilotons.)
Most of these events were too high to do serious damage, but they show how often near-Earth asteroids hit. Tunguska was a multi-megaton blast, bigger than the most powerful atomic bombs in existence. Tunguska was a hundred-year event, and there's a 1% chance of a bigger 100-megaton impact in our lifetime (or 0.01% in any given year).
But when it comes to guarding against an asteroid that could level an entire city or more, Lu says, we're trusting to dumb luck. "The first notice you get is a flash in the sky and a sonic boom." How'd NASA learn about Chelyabinsk? Twitter.
Though Sentinel will focus on larger, more dangerous asteroids, it will also detect some Chelyabinsk-sized objects. And NASA's upcoming ATLAS system of small telescopes will provide advance warning for some (but not all) such strikes, so folks can evacuate or at least stay away from windows.
Even so, there's yet a lot more work to be done.
Scientists have only cataloged about 10,000 or 1% of all near-Earth asteroids. It's estimated we've mapped about 90% of the biggest, extinction-level threats. But 10% are missing in action, and we know nothing of the million or so smaller but still immensely destructive asteroids that could take out an area the size of a state or city.
At the current pace, it would take a thousand years to find them all.
Part of the problem is that the telescopes on the ground or in Earth orbit have a limited view. And asteroids are the color of charcoal. The proverbial needle in a haystack—only the needle is black, the hay is black, and the stack is the size of the inner solar system.
There's a relatively straightforward solution, however. Station a telescope near the orbit of Venus to expand its view, turn away from the glare of the sun, and look in the infrared, where the heat of an otherwise dark asteroid makes it easier to spot.
This is precisely the strategy behind B612s $450-million Sentinel telescope. The project is well underway and boasts a talented roster of deep space mission veterans. Ball Aerospace, the firm behind the Kepler Space Telescope and the optics in the James Webb Space Telescope (among other projects including Hubble), will build Sentinel.
Lu says the project's firmly in the "screw level" phase, and raising additional funds—the nonprofit depends on philanthropic contributions—is the most urgent need.
Provided all goes to plan, Sentinel will launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in 2018. The telescope will assume a Venus-like orbit and, looking back to Earth orbit, make repeated infrared observations of the sky in search of moving objects. The data will be sent to Earth, compiled in a public database, and used to calculate asteroid orbits.
According to B612, Sentinel could find over 20,000 new asteroids in its first month—more than all those found in the 30 years we've been looking. Over its 6.5-year mission (and it could be longer), the team believes they'll discover and catalog 90% of all asteroids bigger than 140 meters and many smaller asteroids down to 30 meters.
B612 is confident it can raise the funds to send Sentinel into space. Let's hope humanity proves itself more intelligent than the dinosaurs, for if we don't, we simply don't deserve a fate better than theirs.

Third Try a Charm for CO2 Satellite

NASA had the worst luck trying to launch satellites to study the sources and sinks for CO₂. The first two tries ended with the satellite crashing into the ocean after fairings (shrouds covering the satellite during launch) failed to separate properly.

Today, though, OCO-2 made the third try a charm:

The OCO-2 spacecraft deployed a pair of solar arrays on schedule to begin charging its batteries in orbit about an hour after the launch of the mission aboard a Delta II rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. EDT) Wednesday.
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) raced skyward from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. Approximately 56 minutes after the launch, the observatory separated from the rocket's second stage into an initial 690-kilometer orbit. The spacecraft then performed a series of activation procedures, established communications with ground controllers and unfurled its twin sets of solar arrays. Initial telemetry shows the spacecraft is in excellent condition.
OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth's sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world and a critical component of the planet's carbon cycle.
"Climate change is the challenge of our generation," said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. "With OCO-2 and our existing fleet of satellites, NASA is uniquely qualified to take on the challenge of documenting and understanding these changes, predicting the ramifications, and sharing information about these changes for the benefit of society."
OCO-2 will take NASA's studies of carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle to new heights. The mission will produce the most detailed picture to date of natural sources of carbon dioxide, as well as their "sinks" -- places on Earth's surface where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. The observatory will study how these sources and sinks are distributed around the globe and how they change over time.
"This challenging mission is both timely and important," said Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "OCO-2 will produce exquisitely precise measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near Earth's surface, laying the foundation for informed policy decisions on how to adapt to and reduce future climate change."
Carbon dioxide sinks are at the heart of a longstanding scientific puzzle that has made it difficult for scientists to accurately predict how carbon dioxide levels will change in the future and how those changing concentrations will affect Earth's climate.
"Scientists currently don't know exactly where and how Earth's oceans and plants have absorbed more than half the carbon dioxide that human activities have emitted into our atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era," said David Crisp, OCO-2 science team leader at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. "Because of this we cannot predict precisely how these processes will operate in the future as climate changes. For society to better manage carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere, we need to be able to measure the natural source and sink processes."
Precise measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are needed because background levels vary by less than two percent on regional to continental scales. Typical changes can be as small as one-third of one percent. OCO-2 measurements are designed to measure these small changes clearly.
During the next 10 days, the spacecraft will go through a checkout process and then begin three weeks of maneuvers that will place it in its final 705-kilometer, near-polar operational orbit at the head of the international Afternoon Constellation, or "A-Train," of Earth-observing satellites. The A-Train, the first multi-satellite, formation flying "super observatory" to record the health of Earth's atmosphere and surface environment, collects an unprecedented quantity of nearly simultaneous climate and weather measurements.
OCO-2 science operations will begin about 45 days after launch. Scientists expect to begin archiving calibrated mission data in about six months and plan to release their first initial estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in early 2015.
The observatory will uniformly sample the atmosphere above Earth's land and waters, collecting more than 100,000 precise individual measurements of carbon dioxide over Earth's entire sunlit hemisphere every day. Scientists will use these data in computer models to generate maps of carbon dioxide emission and uptake at Earth's surface on scales comparable in size to the state of Colorado. These regional-scale maps will provide new tools for locating and identifying carbon dioxide sources and sinks.
OCO-2 also will measure a phenomenon called solar-induced fluorescence, an indicator of plant growth and health. As plants photosynthesize and take up carbon dioxide, they fluoresce and give off a tiny amount of light that is invisible to the naked eye. Because more photosynthesis translates into more fluorescence, fluorescence data from OCO-2 will help shed new light on the uptake of carbon dioxide by plants
OCO-2 is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Program mission managed by JPL for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Orbital Sciences Corporation in Dulles, Virginia, built the spacecraft bus and provides mission operations under JPL's leadership. The science instrument was built by JPL, based on the instrument design co-developed for the original OCO mission by Hamilton Sundstrand in Pomona, California. NASA's Launch Services Program at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for launch management. Communications during all phases of the mission are provided by NASA's Near Earth Network, with contingency support from the Space Network. Both are divisions of the Space Communications and Navigation program at NASA Headquarters. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Free Energy To Get $7.7 Trillion Investment

EE News reports:
Global adoption of renewable energy shows no signs of slowing over the next 15 years, with nearly two-thirds of an expected $7.7 trillion in new investment going toward non-fossil power generation, according to new projections by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
In particular, major additions of solar and wind energy will continue to displace coal as a primary source of power generation across many of the world's largest economies, while shale gas will remain a key factor in U.S. energy markets at least through 2024, BNEF said in the latest "2030 Market Outlook," released this morning.
Overall, fossil fuels are expected to lose 20 percentage points in their market share over the next 16 years from 64 percent of global generation in 2013 to 44 percent in 2030, a decline driven mainly by the contraction of coal-fired power in developed countries, the analysis found.
"By 2030, the world's power mix will have transformed: from today's system with two-thirds fossil fuels to one with over half from zero-emission energy sources," Bloomberg analysts said in the report, which relies on modeling of electricity market supply and demand, technology costs, and policy development in regions and countries around the world.

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The broad market outperforms, but for how much longer?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

3D-Printed Organs Will Solve Many Problems

Patrick Cox in Bio-Printing Transplantable Tissues, Organs: Another Step Closer writes:
Researchers have made a giant leap towards the goal of bio-printing' transplantable tissues and organs for people affected by major diseases and trauma injuries, a new study reports.
Scientists from the Universities of Sydney, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT have bio-printed artificial vascular networks mimicking the body's circulatory system that are necessary for growing large complex tissues. "Thousands of people die each year due to a lack of organs for transplantation," says study lead author and University of Sydney researcher, Dr. Luiz Bertassoni. "Many more are subjected to the surgical removal of tissues and organs due to cancer, or they're involved in accidents with large fractures and injuries. "Imagine being able to walk into a hospital and have a full organ printed—or bio-printed, as we call it—with all the cells, proteins and blood vessels in the right place, simply by pushing the print' button in your computer screen.
Read more here.

Emerging Market Stocks and Islamic Extremism

Emerging Market Stocks and Islamic Extremism

By By Mark Galasiewski, editor of Elliott Wave International's monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast

We have for many years observed a relationship between extremism and bear markets in the stock markets of Muslim nations. For example, this chart shows the deadliest Islamic terrorist attacks graphed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since the start of the index on December 31, 1987. Notice that many the attacks occurred near lows in the index.

Islamic extremist groups are mainly based in four of the five regions that make up the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Those regions are Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia. (Latin America is the exception.) Our April 2014 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast showed how stock markets in these five regions have generally followed a similar pattern in recent decades. So the MSCI Emerging Markets Index serves as a good proxy for stock markets in Islamic nations collectively -- and their lows in particular. The chart suggests that the extreme negative sentiment toward the ends of major corrections has influenced the timing of the deadliest Islamic terrorist incidents over the past 25 years.

Terrorist incidents have become a fact of contemporary life in many nations to such a degree that many smaller attacks have no correlation to the index. However, our study focuses on the largest incidents by number of people killed. It also excludes Iraq, where the sectarian violence has been ongoing for about a decade now and shows no consistent relationship to the emerging markets index. It also finds one exception, the 2004 Madrid train bombings (No. 8 on the chart), which occurred near a peak in the index.

The most violent Islamist group by far during the correction in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of the past few years has been Boko Haram of Nigeria. The group turned violent following the 2009 lows in global markets and has accelerated its campaign of violence in recent years. The Wall Street Journal reports that the group has killed 7,000 people over the past two years alone, citing data from the Council on Foreign Relations. As we go to press (June 6), the group still holds hostage more than 275 schoolgirls it kidnapped in April and May.

Boko Haram's most lethal individual attacks followed the 2011 and 2014 lows in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The group slaughtered at least 300 people in a town in the Nigerian state of Borno in early May 2014 and, as we go to press, has reportedly killed hundreds more people in another large attack in the state.

As with other large-degree Islamic terrorist attacks, these most recent attacks appear to have marked the end of a significant correction in emerging markets overall, including emerging Asian markets.


Read more from EWI's international markets expert,
Mark Galasiewski.

On March 23, 2009, Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Editor Mark Galasiewski issued a special interim report to alert subscribers to an amazing opportunity -- the start of a bull market in India that would likely last around 15 years. See how he made such a stunning forecast more than five years ago -- when we were in the depths of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Access this free report now >>