|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Employment Report should be a market force Friday morning. Be very careful.|
Thursday, February 04, 2016
|Scott Adams makes a very good case for the Iowa primary to have been rigged to stop Trump. In News Flash: Cartoonist Gets One Wrong!, Adams says,
Wednesday, February 03, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It was a Wednesday Turnaround for oil and it pulled commodities higher.|
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Monday, February 01, 2016
Sunday, January 31, 2016
|By Ron Paul (Read online at http://bit.ly/1nWPSsg)|
Passage of Senator Mitch McConnell’s authorization for war against ISIS will not only lead to perpetual US wars across the globe, it will also endanger our civil and economic liberties. The measure allows the president to place troops anywhere he determines ISIS is operating. Therefore, it could be used to justify using military force against United States citizens on US territory. It may even be used to justify imposing martial law in America.
|#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Buy signals are popping up like spring flowers.|
Thursday, January 28, 2016
Wednesday, January 27, 2016
Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Monday, January 25, 2016
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Wednesday, January 20, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks are telegraphing they want to bottom soon.|
|When the Fed decided last month to raise the Fed Funds rate from 0% to ¼%, most commentators pointed out the insignificance of a ¼% rate hike. But, when you think about it, that's an infinite percentage increase in the rate. This point is important because the Fed has to drain liquidity from the banking system in order to keep the rate at ¼%. E.D. Skyrm, managing director of Wedbush Securities estimates the Fed needs to drain between $310 billion and $800 billion in liquidity to achieve this.
The Fed does this through “reverse repos,” which means it sells Treasury bonds to banks and receives payment via the bank’s reserves. In short, it amounts to decreasing the amount of liquidity in the banking system.
In other words, the gang of lawyers who run the Fed has decided to suck the lifeblood out of the economy in order to raise interest rates from zero to ¼%. The effect so far is that the stock market is crashing and jobs will follow, circling the drain on the way down. This is exactly the same stupidity the Fed pulled in 1937 in the middle of the Great Depression: they crashed both the stock market and the economy and prolonged the depression for another decade. In fact, their actions almost certainly resulted in Germany starting World War II. That shouldn't have happened and the only we can ensure that we don't go through this cycle again is to END THE FED.
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
Sunday, January 17, 2016
Thursday, January 14, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities approaching a bottom, apparently|
|Bloomberg New Energy reports:
The sun and the wind continue to defy gravity.
Renewables just finished another record-breaking year, with more money invested ($329 billion) and more capacity added (121 gigawatts) than ever before, according to new data released Thursday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
This wasn't supposed to happen. Oil, coal and natural gas bottomed out over the last 18 months, with bargain prices not seen in a decade. That's just one of a handful of reasons 2015 should have been a rough year for clean energy. But the opposite was true.
The momentum toward sustainable energy is too powerful to let cheap fossil fuels derail it now. The majority of our electricity will be generated by solar power by the 2030s. Note that wind power originates in energy pumped into our atmosphere from our fusion power reactor in the sky.
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
The grid has not changed much since the days of Thomas Edison, George Crabtree, senior scientist at Argonne National Laboratory, told PBS's The Good Stuff in the video above. While other industries have made dramatic advances in the last century, he said, the electrical grid has remained largely the same. "Imagine that we brought back Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor of the telephone, and we showed him our cell phones He'd be baffled," Crabtree said. "Now, bring back Thomas Edison and show him the grid as we have it now and he would instantly recognize every feature of that grid," he said. "He'd say Oh, I understand that grid. I know how it works In fact, I could run the grid for you if you'd like.'"
But all that is about to change, Crabtree predicted. "It may be 5 to 10 to 15 years off, but I think it will come," he said.
It's coming alright . . . and much faster than the experts think.
Read more here.
Monday, January 11, 2016
Sunday, January 10, 2016
|One thing investors may not realize is that bear markets generally can have the best rallies. The current bear market has come a long way in a short period of time. We could see a strong rally back this coming week, but a significant seasonal and cycle low is likely to come in later in January.
#WeekendAnalysis PDF report is now ready for subscribers to view on the website.
Saturday, January 09, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We'll be updating the #WeekendAnalyis Report on Sunday.|
David Stockman ferrets out this factoid about the December jobs report released Friday morning: Here's a newsflash that CNBC didn't mention. According to the BLS, the US economy generated a miniscule 11,000 jobs in the month of December.
But on the apparent theory that December is colder than November, and notwithstanding that almost nobody works outside anymore, the BLS fiction writers added 281,000 to their headline number to cover the "seasonal adjustment."
Of course, this December was much warmer, not colder, than average. Likewise, Christmas season bricks and mortar retail is in turmoil and in secular decline due to Amazon and its e-commerce ilk; export based sectors have been thrown for a loop in the last few months by a surging dollar; and construction activity has been so weak in this cycle—-and for the good reason that both commercial and residential stock is vastly overbuilt owing to two decades of cheap credit——that its not remotely comparable to historic patterns.
Thursday, January 07, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Only 21.6% of NYSE stocks remain in uptrends, confirming the bear trend|
|Solar power is heading for dominance by the 2030s, as we've written before. Tam Hunt updates his case for the Solar Singularity Getting Closer:
Conventional solar is silicon-based, but new technologies have the potential to make solar far cheaper if those technologies develop as they appear likely to do so.
Wednesday, January 06, 2016
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed is lying and the economy is not out of recession. They will soon rue the day they starting hiking interest rates.|
|By Alex Kirby, Climate News Network|
The UN’s achievement last month in persuading world leaders to agree on measures to tackle climate change leaves two prominent climate scientists far from convinced.
LONDON, 1 January, 2016 – Within days of the conclusion of the Paris Agreement at the UN talks in mid-December, two leading US scientists have cast serious doubt on its ability to avert dangerous levels of climate change.
One, James Hansen, says that to think world leaders are doing something significant about the problem is “baloney”, and urges the use of nuclear power and every other form of energy which does not involve the release of carbon.
The other, Michael Mann, argues that the world is “closer to the dangerous 2°C warming mark than many experts acknowledge”, and that continuing global carbon dioxide emissions from human activities at present rates will commit the Earth to 2°C in less than three years from now.
Both men differ substantially on the right way to act, and key parts of their proposals appear too unpopular or too impractical to work. But they do agree that the situation is so urgent that it demands immediate action.
Mann writes: “We don’t have a third of our total carbon budget left to expend. . .We’ve already expended the vast majority of the budget for remaining under 2°C. And what about 1.5°C stabilisation? We’re already overdrawn.” Hansen believes that “we need all hands on deck”.
Hansen, the former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Sciences, speaking to the American Geophysical Union, said: “We really have an emergency because of the inertia of the system.”
“A solution is possible, and economic[ally] sensible”, and it’s not being advocated by any nation, said Hansen, who expressed frustration about the outcome of the UN climate conference. The idea that the world is “making good progress” is “baloney.”
His preferred solution is a carbon fee-and-dividend, with all collected fees (taxes) redistributed on an equal per capita basis. Such a system has been backed also by groups such as the Citizens’ Climate Lobby.
Sixty percent of Americans would make money in that system, he says, because it is the rich members of society who emit more than their individual share of carbon dioxide.
Hansen dismisses as “half-assed and half-baked” the idea that a country like India would cap emissions now, nor could the UN force any country to cap its emissions or tax them. So he suggests a carbon duty on imports, which other countries would have to match out of self-interest.
Right to burn
He is also dismissive about carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology, so far unproven at a commercial scale, describing it as “pure unadulterated bull. . .India and China won’t do it. It’s too expensive, and who wants the CO2 underneath them?”
China and India “have, of course, every right to raise their people out of poverty the same way we did, by burning fossil fuels.”
Restating his well-known championship of nuclear power, Hansen says using fossil fuels is very dangerous by comparison with nuclear power plants.
Mann is director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. In a closely-argued article, How close are we to “dangerous” planetary warming?, he says the idea that 2015 was the year in which global average temperatures passed the 1°C milestone, halfway to the danger level, is mistaken.
Half-way point passed
He writes of the many reports that “2015 will be the first year where temperatures climbed to 1°C above the pre-industrial. That might make it seem like we’ve got quite a ways to go until we breach the 2°C limit. But the claim is wrong. We exceeded 1°C warming more than a decade ago.”
The world needs to limit net carbon emissions to about 3,000 Gigatons (three trillion tons) of CO2 to have a chance of staying within 2°C. Yet, Mann writes, “We’ve already burned through about 2,000 Gigatons, i.e. we have expended two thirds of our apparent ‘carbon budget’.”
The more the world delays rapid reductions in fossil fuel burning, he argues, the more it will need to offset additional carbon emissions by sequestering atmospheric carbon, either through massive reforestation projects, or with geo-engineering technology such as direct air capture, which involves literally sucking the CO2 back out of the atmosphere.
Mann says: “We’re already close to 1.2°C net warming for the northern hemisphere relative to a true pre-industrial baseline. . .So what’s the bottom line? Well, we’re actually closer to the dangerous 2°C warming mark than many experts acknowledge. And yet there is still hope for limiting warming to 2°C. . .”
For him and for Hansen, it seems, the Paris Agreement will work only on conditions that millions will find either unacceptable or unachievable. Nuclear power has few supporters, and carbon capture and storage looks unlikely to succeed. – Climate News Network
Tuesday, January 05, 2016
Monday, January 04, 2016
Sunday, January 03, 2016
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Monday, December 28, 2015
Sunday, December 27, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis reports have been updated on the website. Santa brought a January Effect rally last week.|
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
|A White Christmas is rare in Texas, but climate change may be responsible for the first Blue Christmas this year. The state flower—bluebonnets—normally bloom in spring. But, reports are that the bluebonnets are being fooled by global warming and blooming months early this year.
Somebody should tell Ted Cruz. He's a science denier. If the bluebonnets are blooming early, it shows how big changes are happening to our climate.
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa Clause Rally boosts stocks, but pummels bonds. Reversal coming?|
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Monday, December 21, 2015
|By Ron Paul, originally published at Ron Paul Institute|
Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed’s announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.
At her Wednesday press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged continuing “cyclical weakness” in the job market. She also suggested that future rate increases are likely to be as small, or even smaller, then Wednesday’s. However, she also expressed concerns over increasing inflation, which suggests the Fed may be open to bigger rate increases.
Many investors and those who rely on interest from savings for a substantial part of their income cheered the increase. However, others expressed concern that even this small rate increase will weaken the already fragile job market.
These critics echo the claims of many economists and economic historians who blame past economic crises, including the Great Depression, on ill-timed money tightening by the Fed. While the Federal Reserve is responsible for our boom-bust economy, recessions and depressions are not caused by tight monetary policy. Instead, the real cause of economic crisis is the loose money policies that precede the Fed’s tightening.
When the Fed floods the market with artificially created money, it lowers the interest rates, which are the price of money. As the price of money, interest rates send signals to businesses and investors regarding the wisdom of making certain types of investments. When the rates are artificially lowered by the Fed instead of naturally lowered by the market, businesses and investors receive distorted signals. The result is over-investment in certain sectors of the economy, such as housing.
This creates the temporary illusion of prosperity. However, since the boom is rooted in the Fed’s manipulation of the interest rates, eventually the bubble will burst and the economy will slide into recession. While the Federal Reserve may tighten the money supply before an economic downturn, the tightening is simply a futile attempt to control the inflation resulting from the Fed’s earlier increases in the money supply.
After the bubble inevitably bursts, the Federal Reserve will inevitability try to revive the economy via new money creation, which starts the whole boom-bust cycle all over again. The only way to avoid future crashes is for the Fed to stop creating inflation and bubbles.
Some economists and policy makers claim that the way to stop the Federal Reserve from causing economic chaos is not to end the Fed but to force the Fed to adopt a “rules-based” monetary policy. Adopting rules-based monetary policy may seem like an improvement, but, because it still allows a secretive central bank to manipulate the money supply, it will still result in Fed-created booms and busts.
The only way to restore economic stability and avoid a major economic crisis is to end the Fed, or at least allow Americans to use alterative currencies. Fortunately, more Americans than ever are studying Austrian economics and working to change our monetary system.
Thanks to the efforts of this growing anti-Fed movement, Audit the Fed had twice passed the House of Representatives, and the Senate is scheduled to vote on it on January 12. Auditing the Fed, so the American people can finally learn the full truth about the Fed’s operations, is an important first step in restoring a sound monetary policy. Hopefully, the Senate will take that step and pass Audit the Fed in January.
Copyright © 2015 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
Please donate to the Ron Paul Institute
Sunday, December 20, 2015
Friday, December 18, 2015
|Mike Munsell of Greentech Media writes:
A five-year extension to the solar investment tax credit (ITC), which is currently included in the omnibus spending bill under consideration in Congress, would result in 25 gigawatts (GW) of additional solar capacity over the next five years -- a 54 percent increase over a no-extension scenario. According to GTM Research, which just released a preliminary updated state- and segment-level forecasts based on the current omnibus language, ITC extension will foster $40 billion in incremental investment in solar between 2016 and 2020.
"The ITC extension currently written into the omnibus spending bill will result in a 20-gigawatt annual solar market in the U.S. by 2020," said Shayle Kann, senior VP of GTM Research. "At that rate, more solar will be installed each year than was added to the grid cumulatively through 2014."
Compare that projection to the total amount of solar added during 2015: just 3 gigawatts. Clearly, this slow-growth economy has a pocket of high growth within it.
Thursday, December 17, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa is MIA, but our signals are working profitably.|
|Elon Musk explains what it will take to tap into an endless source of free energy in this talk he gave in Paris on December 2nd:|
In an interview on December 15 at the American Geophysical Union meeting, Musk mentioned that if we covered just a corner of Utah or Nevada with solar panels, we could power the entire US, as Nature News' Lauren Morello reported.
Wednesday, December 16, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Long term rates are heading lower, not higher. The TV journalists get it wrong.|
|According to Solar City, their customers have reaped the following benefits by going solar:
Estimated savings by their customers so far: $145,800,888 and |
2,462,014 Tons of CO2 conserved by their customers and counting
Equivalent to not driving a car for 5,827,884,920 miles or avoiding the use of 1,402,645,723 gallons of water.
WASHINGTON, Dec. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity urged Congress to swiftly pass comprehensive legislation that includes an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar. The provision, included in sweeping appropriations and tax bills introduced by House Speaker Paul Ryan today, is the result of weeks-long bipartisan negotiations between Senate and House leaders.
The proposed legislation would follow on the heels of the historic global climate agreement in Paris, where 195 countries committed to tackle climate change and galvanize greater investment in clean energy. Consistent, long-term policies supporting solar energy, along with other clean energy sources, are critical to the growth of a lower-carbon economy. This week, analysts told the National Journal that lifting the ban on crude oil exports would have a negligible impact on U.S. carbon emissions, while greater support and certainty for solar could more than double the nation's total installed solar capacity.
"On behalf of over 15,000 employees here in the U.S. and nearly 300,000 customers, SolarCity applauds the bipartisan agreement that prioritizes the growth of solar in the United States," said SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive. "Using clean energy is the most important step an individual can take to address climate change and protect future generations. Combined with the historic Paris climate agreement, long-term certainty for the ITC sends a strong signal to the marketplace that investment in clean energy is the right way to drive continued economic growth and job creation. We urge Congress to act quickly to enact the measure."
The ITC, which was set to expire at the end of 2016, is a 30% federal tax credit for businesses (under Section 48 of the tax code) and homeowners (under Section 25D) to incentivize installation of solar energy systems, fuel cells, combined heat and power systems, microturbines, small wind systems, and geothermal heat pumps.
Since its creation in 2006, the ITC has delivered job growth, cost reductions, and domestic energy deployment across the country.
SolarCity is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action employer committed to diversity in the workplace. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, protected veteran status, gender identity or any other factor protected by applicable federal, state or local laws.
This release contains forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding projections as to manufacturing timelines, volume and costs. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or results will be achieved, if at all. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward looking statements. You should read the section entitled "Risk Factors" in SolarCity's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and identifies certain of these and additional risks and uncertainties. We do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.
To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/solarcity-urges-swift-passage-of-bipartisan-year-end-tax-package-300193675.html
Tuesday, December 15, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed hikes rates, the economy goes into recession. Will they be blamed?|
Monday, December 14, 2015
|Ben Hunt thinks there's a storm coming in the markets. He published a note today called Storm Warning:
Can everyone saying “a 25 bps rate hike doesn’t change anything” or “manufacturing is a small part of the US economy today, so the ISM number doesn’t mean much” or “trade with China is only a few percent of US GDP, so their currency devaluation isn’t important” just stop? Seriously. Can you just stop? Maybe if you were making these statements back in the ‘80s – and by that I mean the 1880s, back when the US was effectively a huge island in the global economy – it would make some sense, but today it’s just embarrassing.
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Saturday, December 12, 2015
|The investment bank urges investors to focus on solar, wind, LEDs and electric cars for maximum climate impact.
Stephen Lacey of GreentechMedia writes:
Friday, December 11, 2015
|Damn the Matrix stays on top of the accelerating global deflationary trend:
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Wednesday, December 09, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Will Santa Claus(e) appear on Wall St this year? Seasonals say yes.|
Tuesday, December 08, 2015
|The politicians love to think that staying below at 2°C rise in average global temperatures over the years 1800-present will somehow “save the planet.” If you believe that, you have yet to realize politicians lie with the regularity of sunrise.
Two degrees became the default goal almost by happenstance. The number originated with Yale economist William Nordhaus, who back in the 1970s published a paper suggesting that a rise in global temperature of more than 2 degrees would represent temperatures hardly seen over the past several hundred thousand years. Nordhaus’s number was based on preliminary intuition, though climate data has confirmed that during the past 100,000 years, global mean temperatures have rarely, if ever, reached much higher than 2 C above those around 1800.
Monday, December 07, 2015
Sunday, December 06, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. #WeekendAnalysis to follow shortly. Seasonal uptrend in equities persists.|
Saturday, December 05, 2015
Friday, December 04, 2015
|The COP21 Climate Talks in Paris aim to limit global warming to 2°C this century, but James Hansen, who sounded the warming warning way back in 1988 says:
Hansen, who was speaking at a climate summit for the first time, said the planet was out of energy balance. “There is more warming in the pipeline that will take us into real danger. We are on the edge of handing our children a climate system that is out of control, and that could mean losing half our coastal cities.”
Thursday, December 03, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big move in bonds was tipped here first.|
|Rockstar entrepreneur Elon Musk is right most of the time. But, he can certainly be wrong. We've written before that he's wrong about Lithium-ion battery technology as he's betting the future of Tesla on that obsolete technology. We will be proven correct in the long run and Musk may very well snap to the facts. The inventor of Lithium-ion battery technology agrees with us, by the way.
Today, we find that Musk thinks that we can only solve the Climate Change problem with a Carbon Tax. Well, there's another thing Musk is wrong about. What will solve the problem is technology. Strangely enough, we agree with Bill Gates on this point. We read in Fortune that:
This idea that government has to coerce the public into doing the right thing is where conservatives lose patience with environmentalists. We say let the market decide which is the best course of action. Let the technology force the outcome. And, we think the market is going to tell the fossil fuel industry to keep their polluting fuel in the ground. That's because we have an unlimited supply of clean green fuel for our energy coming from 93 million miles in the sky. We can take this free energy and store it in advanced batteries and have it available at any time in the future. We can create electric transportation and store that solar energy to put to use in transporting goods from place to place on the surface of this planet—and in the air as well. It's called solar+storage and it's now cheaper than burning polluting fossil fuel in many parts of the planet. Let the market decide, not government. Tell politicians to keep their greedy hands off the economy. You know that if the politicians pass a tax, they'll find a way to funnel some of those funds into the hands of their sponsors in industry. The public will pay higher taxes and receive no benefits from the tax while some gets funneled into corporate coffers that finds its way back into politicians' pockets.
Wednesday, December 02, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today was a significant change-in-trend day. We're adding significant indicators to our daily chart rotation.|
|The Breakthrough Energy Coalition aims to spur the transition away from fossil fuels to sustainable (and non-polluting energy) via private-public partnerships. See Introducing the Breakthrough Energy Coalition:
The real problem is in commercializing the sustainable energy breakthroughs we already have. Consequently, this part of the initiative will end up being far more important:
Gates speaks to the problems we face:
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
Monday, November 30, 2015
Sunday, November 29, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A choppy week ahead, but seasonals point up in most indices.|
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and open for a half-day session on Friday.|
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Monday, November 23, 2015
On the eve of the most important global climate meeting of our lifetime, hundreds of thousands are hitting the streets worldwide, with love and hope, to show leaders how to lead, and fight for a beautiful, equitable, post-fossil fuel 100% clean energy future. Find your march here: http://globalclimatemarch.org
Sunday, November 22, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Later, we'll have the #WeekendAnalysis PDF updated for subscribers.|
Saturday, November 21, 2015
"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Elon Musk, the entrepreneur who helped create PayPal, built America's first viable fully electric car company, started the nation's biggest solar energy supplier, and may make commercial space travel a reality in our lifetime. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Television offers extensive coverage and analysis of international business news and stories of global importance. It is available in more than 310 million households worldwide and reaches the most affluent and influential viewers in terms of household income, asset value and education levels. With production hubs in London, New York and Hong Kong, the network provides 24-hour continuous coverage of the people, companies and ideas that move the markets.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big picture should make any long term investor quite nervous here.|
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The dead rat bounce continues in the stock market with a buy signal this morning.|
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Monday, November 16, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Saturday, November 14, 2015
How could the UN climate talks in Paris next month ratchet up the national plans (INDCs) and succeed in limiting global warming? Drew Jones of Climate Interactive presents scenarios from the C-ROADS simulation and explores how far these contributions get us, and what more is needed to keep warming to within 2° Celsius (3.6°F) of temperature change above pre-industrial levels.
The C-ROADS simulation, which created the scenarios, is available for download along with all assumptions and equations at climateinteractive.org.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Internals continue to collapse in the stock market. Deja vu all over again?|
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Monday, November 09, 2015
|Last week, the government reported that 271,000 new jobs were created in the month of October, much to the surprise of markets. Stocks and bonds tumbled on the belief that this would give the Fed permission to raise interest rates to slow an overheating economy.
Apparently, no one realized that the Employment Report is one of the most lagging indicators of the economy. The good news on jobs reflects the economy as it was several months ago. It's not unusual to see a high number of new jobs being reported just before the economy dips into recession. Other data series which are more up-to-date show the economy in a position which has led to recession shortly thereafter. That's not to say they are saying we're about to enter recession. But, they are saying that the Fed had better not take the most lagging indicator into consideration when hiking interest rates.
With corporate earnings sliding, many corporations are over-indebted today due to borrowing money to buy back their shares and artificially boost earnings. The JNK ETF reflects a strong downtrend that is a forecast of a falling economy. The last time the Fed hiked rates in 2007 they did so in a declining economy and that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Will they do it again?
Well, when you consider that most of the Fed members are lawyers and not economists, it doesn't look good for the economy or the country.
Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun
By Elliott Wave International
The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."
Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.
Take a look at this chart:
Japan's economy has gone through a very long winter. The nation has experienced deflation for most of the past 25 years.
Here's a September 25 Financial Times headline:
Japan falls back into deflation for first time since 2013
But a change of seasons may be closer than many observers realize. Review this chart and commentary excerpted from a Special Report by Mark Galasiewski in the October issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Global Market Perspective:
Is this sleeping giant ready to offer opportunities for investors?
You can learn now in a new free report from Elliott Wave International, 3 Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks.
You'll get Galasiewski's Special Section on Japan, as presented to Elliott Wave International subscribers in Global Market Perspective.
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Friday, November 06, 2015
|Jules Peck summarizes last week's Guildhall meeting in the city of London discussing climate change in From Business as Usual to Business as Urgent -- City Signs Up for One Way Ticket to the Low Carbon Economy:
A major theme running throughout the event was that of stranded carbon assets, a concept that many leading figures have come out in support of. For example Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England has said that the "vast majority of reserves are unburnable" if global temperature rises are to be limited to below 2C and that this represents "potentially huge losses" to asset managers. Because of this the Bank of England and the G20 are both now examining the risk this issue poses to the global economy.
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said:
In a phrase that was echoed by other speakers Figueres said that "we are not in a world of business as usual, we're in a world of business as urgent" and argued that, while a climate change deal to be agreed in Paris in December will not come up with a global carbon price, this was not relevant because "We already have a strong carbon price signal" in many jurisdictions around the world, with almost 80% of global emissions under some sort of carbon pricing now.
Figeures made it clear that the Paris deal will sketch out a roadmap to a net-zero emission economy in which most reserves booked by fossil fuel companies will not be able to be burnt and will therefore become stranded assets. But she warned that, despite this, the energy industry is still banking on ever-rising demand for its products as if nothing has changed. For Figueres, "these [projections] are pure fiction".
A shift out of carbon assets is rapidly underway:
From other panel discussions it became clear that many investors are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance commented that talk of such litigation risks "is setting off alarm bells that there could be long tail risks" for those not incorporating such issues into their analysis and that "Paris gives us all a non-exchangeable, one-way ticket to a low-carbon economy."
Karmali said that because of this, and the increased risks associated with carbon heavy assets, his bank has now accelerated its shift out of coal stocks to "a very low level" and that Bank of America now have three times the exposure to renewables as they do to coal. Underlining how significant this shift is, he described this as "remarkable for a conservative institution like ourselves".
Mark Lewis of Barclays shook the audience with a cautionary tale that ten years ago, the utility sector ignored the signs of the coming tsunami of renewables and that those utilities lost 60-80% of their value. He also pointed out that sell side analysts completely misread the way the market would shift on renewables. He warned that translating what comes out of the Paris talks for financial analysts will not be straight forward and it will need their clients to be calling for more incorporation of carbon risk in asset mangers investments for this issue to become of focus for most mainstream financial analysis.
Echoing what Figueres had said, Lewis underlined that a huge market shift away from high carbon assets is underway, whether or not analysts are always recognising this, and quoted the CEO of energy company ENEL that "there is a huge tide flowing, you can decide in which direction to swim but the flow is not in your control and nor is the direction it is flowing."
However, despite some city institutions being more and more engaged with these issues, Helena Morrissey, CEO of Newton and chairman of Investment Management Association, warned that the impact of climate policy is still not high enough on agenda of most investment companies and that there is a need for an end to silos and a shift to integrated investing in which climate change becomes fully part of the mainstream way of doing thing for city institutions.
Morrissey warned her peers that "We slept walked into the financial crisis and we have no excuse for sleepwalking into a climate crisis" and called for more sense of urgency from the investment community who should stop delaying tough decisions for lack of a clear enough roadmap from politicians. She also called for more pressure from clients and others to encourage bodies like the Investment Association to take carbon risk more seriously.
Anthony Hobley of Carbon Tracker echoed this idea of sleepwalking into crisis saying that the old energy order is living on borrowed time and compared what is happening today with the inevitable shift away from carbon to the decline of Britain's canals in the mid-19th century when railways burst onto the scene and drove down cargo tolls, destroying the business model.
Giving Kodak and Blockbuster as more recent examples, Hobley pointed out that technology takes no prisoners and to a long graveyard of industries and companies that stuck doggedly to business as usual at key inflexion points and said that "Incumbents invariably fail to see it coming."
Hobley underlined what other speakers had said in terms of the message expected to come from the December Paris climate summit saying that "Most international laws or treaties are not about breaking new ground. They are about codifying what the major powers are doing anyway. The success of Paris will be in codifying what is already happening. For incumbents and for you as investors it will open a window for you to see the transition that is already taking place. It will give the incumbents an opportunity to get on the train before it departs the station."
Thursday, November 05, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The stock market continues to collapse on the inside. It's smaller than it looks from the outside.|
|It's highly likely that fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil will not be allowed, either by the free market or government fiat, to extract all of their reserves in the ground. That means the Carbon Bubble will be popped, sooner or later, and asset prices of fossil fuel companies have a strong future downtrend to contend with.
Since Exxon has done the most research on the subject of Climate Change by their own admission, you would think they had a plan: the handwriting is on the wall. So far, the only part of the plan we've seen them implement is funding climate change deniers. That hasn't worked, obviously. What exactly is their plan?
Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, appeared on Fox Business yesterday, but gave no hint that he even understood the basics of the changes that are already in the pipeline. When asked about the effect of self-driving cars, he answered that it would increase the demand for gasoline because more cars would be sold. That answer shows that he hasn't thought the process through at all. When driverless cars are sold, they are most likely going to be electric cars, not gas-guzzlers, and that will reduce demand for internal combustion cars.
Electric cars have so many advantages over fossil fuel cars that the economics of electrics will trounce fossil fuels. They have far fewer moving parts, they will be much more economical to operate and batteries will drop sharply in the near future. That means driverless cars will be cheaper to own and operate than fossil fuel cars.
This one point reveals that the head of ExxonMobil has no plans on how to deal with the bursting of the Carbon Bubble. If you had to make out a list of the Too Big To Fail companies, ExxonMobil would surely be near the top of the list. That means that when ExxonMobil goes down in flames, it will be the taxpayers who are called on to bail them out of their misery. Just like General Motors in 2008 in fact. That's not only a shame, it's a disgrace for the public, which have been misled and lied to by the fossil fuel companies for several decades.