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Thursday, May 05, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today's buy to cover shorts signal was quickly reversed as weakness continues in equities.

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Opportunity in Chinese Yuan coming up? China in trouble.

Tuesday, May 03, 2016

Scott Adams: "We can make this world as good as we want it"

Scott Adams told us what would happen to Trump last year:

I told you last year that Trump’s rise would change more than your opinion of politics. Trump’s successful use of persuasion will rewrite your entire understanding of reality. While you’re watching the trees, the entire forest is transforming. We’re right in the middle of the greatest awakening in the history of humankind.

We can make this world as good as we want it. We just don’t know it yet.

We’re almost there.


From Say Goodbye To Your Mind.

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. No Tuesday Turnaround today. Have the buyers gone on strike?

Monday, May 02, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A bullish reversal appeared in a tech sector today, but NASDAQ remains bearish.

Sunday, May 01, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Sell in May and walk away? Or, trade for the short term trend?

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. NASDAQ continues to drag the equity markets down.

Solar Power Update: Dominance in 12 Years

We've projected solar power to dominate the energy field in the next couple of decades and the trends remain right on track for that to happen. Ray Kurzweil explained it recently at a medical device trade show in Anaheim, California, written up in Solar Power World. Here are some salient points he made:

Explaining the accelerating rate of technical progress, Kurzweil said technical developments form very predictable trajectories, and those trajectories are exponential. Consider the progress of the computing industry, he said. He spoke about his cell phone, which he said is several billion times more powerful per dollar than the computer he used as an undergraduate at MIT.

“I went to MIT because it was so advanced that it actually had a computer in the late 1960s,” Kurzweil said. “It took up the floor of a building. Still, this cell phone is thousands of times more powerful, and million times less expensive. That’s a several billion-fold increase in price-performance. It’s also a tiny fraction of the size.”

Turning his attention to solar, Kurzweil said four years ago Google founder Larry Page and he were asked by the National Academy of Engineering to study emerging energy technologies. The men selected solar due to its exponential growth. Kurzweil said solar has been around for over 25 years, and its market share has doubled every two years.

“In 2012, solar panels were producing 0.5% of the world’s energy supply. Some people dismissed it, saying, ‘It’s a nice thing to do, but at a half percent, it’s a fringe player. That’s not going to solve the problem,’” Kurzweil said. “They were ignoring the exponential growth just as they ignored the exponential growth of the Internet and genome project. Half a percent is only eight doublings away from 100%.

“Now it is four years later, [and solar] has doubled twice again. Now solar panels produce 2% of the world’s energy, right on schedule. People dismiss it, ‘2%. Nice, but a fringe player.’ That ignores the exponential growth, which means it is only six doublings or [12] years from 100%.”

Two years ago Kurzweil presented this to the Prime Minister of Israel, he said, who had attended his class at the MIT Sloan School in the 1970s. Kurzweil said the prime minster asked him a question.

“Ray, do we have enough sunlight to do this with a doubling seven more times?’” Kurzweil recalled. He said he replied, “’Yes. After we double seven more times, and meeting 100% of the world’s energy needs, we’ll still be using only one part in 10,000 of the sunlight that we have.’”

“It’s not true we’re running out of energy,” Kurzweil said before moving on to another topic. “We’re only running out of resources if we stick with 19th century technologies.”

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The path of least resistance for equities is up at this time of year.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The AAPL bomb went off after-hours, resulting in an 8% drop in the stock.

Monday, April 25, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Fear of Fed hiking rates sent stocks lower on Monday

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Last week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Stocks still maintain an uptrend, but not in a bull market.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Expected weakness in stocks is likely only short term.

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Weakness in stocks should be only temporary here.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is IBM the canary in the coal mine, at least for tech stocks?

Monday, April 18, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is oil resuming its bear market trend? It should act like the dog which caught the bus.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Later in the day, an update to our #WeekendAnalysis.

Friday, April 15, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What will a rally in the dollar do to commodities?

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Which leading index is due for an important change-in-trend on Monday?

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks love it when the Fed buys them.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today's decline fits well with our seasonal pattern for a major opportunity coming up.

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A significant seasonal change-in-trend is coming soon to the equity market.

Friday, April 08, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A significant seasonal low appears to be setting up in the equity market.

Wednesday, April 06, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What a bellwether stock is telling us about the economy.

Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed continues to push asset prices with Fed Juice.

Monday, April 04, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Expected consolidation in equity doesn't preclude a higher high this week.

Sunday, April 03, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Seasonality tells us to expect taxday to be significant for the equity market.

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Employment Report Friday dead ahead. Watch the market react to the report.

Wednesday, March 30, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks remain on track for a significant top coming up in April.

Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Yellen promises a rollback in rates if the economy continues to deteriorate.

Monday, March 28, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks churn sideways, but the canaries in the coal mine are sick.

Saturday, March 26, 2016

The Current Bubble Bursts

Valeant Pharmaceuticals is the latest example of the bubbles on Wall Street. David Stockman describes it in A Scam Called Valeant—Why The Casino Is Going To Blow:

If you need evidence that Wall Street is a financial time bomb waiting for ignition look no further than the recent meltdown of Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX). In round terms, its market cap of $90 billion on August 5th has suddenly become the embodiment of that proverbial sucking sound to the south, having plunged to less than $12 billion by Wednesday’s close.

That’s nearly a 90% haircut and VRX was no microcap penny stock. It was a giant inhabitant of a hedge fund hotel.

Needless to say, the cliff-diving pattern in the graph below provides evidence that the ticking bombs in the casino are of the neutron variety. In this case, the hotel may be still standing but the inhabitants have been ionized. On a single day last week, hedge funds lost $5.3 billion in value.

Condign justice, some might say, for the likes of rank gamblers like William Ackman (Pershing Square) and Jeffrey Ubben (ValueAct Holdings) who lost $700 million each that day. The fact that they have successfully promoted themselves for so long as masters of the universe, however, is the real moral of the story.

The financial markets and media have been so corrupted by central bank bubble finance that they did not even recognize that Valeant was a monumental scam and that Ackman and Ubben are snake oil salesman in $5,000 suits. Presently it will become clear that the hedge fund hotels are heavily occupied by many more of the same.

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stock market rallies ahead of Easter for the 18th time in the last 18 years.

Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks tend to rally during Easter. Was today a setup for that rally?

Global Warming + Atlantic Cooling = UK Storms (Video)

Jason Box explains why the cold pool of water in the North Atlantic (caused by Greenland and Canadian ice melt) is causing storms in the U.K.:

Evolution of Government

Scott Adams explains how government has evolved from a republic to a form of social media in Social Media is the New Government. It's an important point and a nice change from what he calls “Economic Fascism” which is a form of government controlled by the very rich.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks staggered higher, but there's a better shorting opportunity right now in gold.

How Can Global CO2 Levels Soar When Emissions Are Flat?

Joe Romm writes in Climate Progress:

Last year saw the biggest jump in global CO2 levels ever measured, as NOAA reported on March 9. Yet in 2015 the world economy grew while energy-related CO2 emissions were flat — for the second year in a row — according to the International Energy Agency, as ClimateProgress reported last week.

This puzzled more than one reader. One emailed me the following: “the IEA is saying that emissions have gone flat, while, at the same time, NOAA is announcing that we just had the largest-ever jump in CO2 [levels]. Logic would seem to dictate that someone has their figures wrong. Flat emissions should not translate into record CO2 jumps.”

What’s going on? Two things:

  • Annual CO2 emissions are very different from global CO2 levels.
  • CO2 levels tend to have big jumps in El Niño years.

Let’s go through those two, especially since this discussion gets to the heart of what I call “the biggest source of confusion in the public climate discussion” in my recent book, “Climate Change: What Everyone Needs to Know.” It also goes to the heart of why delaying action is so dangerous and costly.

The CO2 Bathtub Analogy

Avoiding catastrophic warming requires stabilizing CO2 concentrations (or levels) in the atmosphere, not annual emissions. Studies find that many, if not most, people are confused about this, including highly informed people, mistakenly believing that if we stop increasing emissions, then global warming will stop. In fact, very deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to stop global warming.

One study by MIT grad students found that “most subjects believe atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized while emissions into the atmosphere continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from it.” The author, Dr. John Sterman from MIT’s Sloan School of Management, notes that these beliefs “support wait-and-see policies but violate conservation of matter” and are “analogous to arguing a bathtub filled faster than it drains will never overflow.”

BathtubEarthEPA

CREDIT: EPA

While atmospheric concentrations (the total stock of CO2 already in the air) might be thought of as the water level in the bathtub, emissions (the yearly new flow into the air) are the rate of water flowing into a bathtub from the faucet. There is also a bathtub drain, which is analogous to the so-called carbon “sinks” such as the oceans and the soils. The water level won’t drop until the flow through the faucet is less than the flow through the drain.

Similarly, carbon dioxide levels won’t stabilize until human-caused emissions are so low that the carbon sinks can essentially absorb them all. Under many scenarios, that requires more than an 80 percent drop in CO2 emissions. And if the goal is stabilization of temperature near or below the 2°C (3.6 °F) threshold for dangerous climate change that scientists and governments have identified, then CO2 emissions need to approach zero by 2100.

So the first key point is that CO2 levels will continue rising if we merely keep annual CO2 emissions flat. In fact, they will keep rising at a faster and faster rate because the land and ocean carbon sinks are weakening (see below).

The Temporary Impact Of El Niño

NOAA reported two weeks ago that the CO2 concentrations “measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015, the largest year-to-year increase in 56 years of research.” That is a big jump compared to the average annual rise at Mauna Loa from 2005 to 2014 of 2.11 ppm per year.

But the second-highest single-year growth rate for CO2 levels was back in 1998, which saw a jump of 2.93 ppm (whereas the average annual rise from 1995 to 2004 was 1.87 ppm per year).

You may notice a pattern here — big jumps during big El Niño years.

“El Niño years tend to be bad years for plant growth, due to things like widespread drought or other extreme weather,” Stefan Rahmstorf, co-chair of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explained in an email. “So the biosphere loses some carbon. You see that happening in 1998 as well. Below is a diagram from the AR5, you see from the squiggly line how variable the land sink is, it dominates interannual variability in the carbon budget.”

Annual manmade CO2 emissions and where they end up. The partitioning is between the ocean sink (dark blue), the atmosphere (light blue) and the land sink (green).

CREDIT: IPCC

A crucial point is that, based on actual observations and measurements, the world’s top carbon cycle experts have determined that the land and oceans are becoming steadily less effective at removing excess CO2 from the atmosphere, as I reported last year. This makes it more urgent for us to start cutting carbon pollution ASAP, since it will become progressively harder and harder for us to do so effectively in the coming decades.

In particular, the defrosting permafrost and the resultant release of CO2 and methane turns part of the land sink into a source of airborne greenhouse gases. Similarly, as global warming increases forest and peatland fires — burning trees and vegetation — that also turns one part of the land carbon sink into a source of atmospheric CO2. So does ever-worsening droughts that scientists are observing in the United States southwest and other parts of the world.

We are destroying nature’s ability to help us stave off catastrophic climate change. “Clearly nature is helping us” deal with atmospheric CO2 right now much more than it will be decades to come, as Dr. Josep (Pep) Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, told me last year. Ultimately this is one more reason why delaying action to cut carbon pollution is a costly and dangerous mistake.

Sunday, March 20, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We will update our #WeekendAnalysis report later today.

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Money managers expect recession, but can't afford to sit on the sidelines in cash.

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Why the precious metals bear market isn't over yet and what will signal it is.

Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Consolidation was the name of the game today in equities.

Sunday, March 13, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Seasonals are a big factor in the markets today.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Crazy volatility is a sure symptom of a top in overvalued/overbought equities.

Energy Storage Poised For a Breakthrough

“It doesn’t always rain when you need water, so we have reservoirs — but we don’t have the same system for electricity,” says Jill Cainey, director of the UK’s Electricity Storage Network. But that may change in 2016, with industry figures predicting a breakthrough year for a technology not only seen as vital to the large-scale rollout of renewable energy, but also offering the prospect of lowering customers’ energy bills. Big batteries, whose costs are plunging, are leading the way. But a host of other technologies, from existing schemes like splitting water to create hydrogen, compressing air in underground caverns, flywheels and heated gravel pits, to longer term bets like supercapacitors and superconducting magnets, are also jostling for position. Read full article.

Wednesday, March 09, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Key resistance lies just overhead in stocks.

Tuesday, March 08, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The rally seems to have eliminated the bearishness and paved the way to the downside.

Monday, March 07, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the commodity bear market over now?

Bring the SAVE Benefits Act to the floor of the United States Senate for a vote

Tens of millions of Americans rely on Social Security for a majority of their income, but this year – for just the fourth time in the history of the program – beneficiaries didn’t receive a cost of living adjustment. Meanwhile, CEO pay has continued to skyrocket.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren has introduced a bill called the Seniors and Veterans Emergency Benefits Act (SAVE Benefits Act)1 that would give seniors, veterans, people with disabilities and surviving spouses who rely on Social Security a one-time payment of $580 to help make ends meet. It would be paid for by closing a loophole that subsidizes excessive CEO pay.

In a few days, Sen. Warren, Sen. Chuck Schumer and progressive groups will be delivering the signatures on this petition to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. Add your name to the petition now to help build pressure on Sen. McConnell to allow a vote on the bill.

Tell Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Allow a vote on the SAVE Benefits Act. Click here to sign the petition.

In October, the Social Security Administration announced that there would not be an automatic increase in Social Security benefits in 2016, as there is in most years.2 Right now, the average Social Security benefit is less than $15,000 per year – and many of the tens of millions of Americans who rely on Social Security to get by desperately need a raise.

Meanwhile, CEO pay at the 350 biggest firms in the U.S. now averages more than $16 million per year – over 1,000 times more than the average Social Security benefit. In 2014, the last year for which data is available, these CEOs saw their pay increase by 3.9 percent. Incredibly, much of this compensation slips through the so-called “performance pay” loophole, which allows corporations to deduct CEO pay from their taxable income as long as it is based on performance.

The SAVE Benefits Act addresses both of these problems at once by providing a one-time $580 Social Security payment that is paid for by eliminating this egregious loophole. It’s a smart bill that will give a much-needed raise to our seniors and veterans instead of wealthy CEOs.

But Sen. McConnell has so far refused to allow a vote on the SAVE Benefits Act. That’s why Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Schumer and progressive groups are organizing a big petition delivery this week. Add your name to our petition now to make sure it is included in the delivery.

Tell Majority Leader Mitch McConnell: Allow a vote on the SAVE Benefits Act. Click here to sign the petition.

Sunday, March 06, 2016

By Century's End, Some Parts of Earth Will Be Uninhabitable

James Hansen, noted climate scientist who warned us decades ago of the dangers of fossil fuels, now suggests that we are on track to make parts of our planet uninhabitable by the end of this century:

The tropics and the Middle East in summer are in danger of becoming practically uninhabitable by the end of the century if business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions continue, because wet bulb temperature could approach the level at which the human body is unable to cool itself under even well-ventilated outdoor conditions. Lesser warming still makes life more difficult and reduces productivity in these regions, because temperatures are approaching the limit of human tolerance and both agricultural and construction work are mainly outdoor activities. Middle latitude countries have a near optimum average temperature for work productivity, while warmer countries such as Indonesia, India and Nigeria are on a steep slope with rapidly declining productivity as temperature rises (see Fig. 2 of Burke et al., 2015).

Warming and climate effects are not uniform within the regions that we illustrate. In the U.S., e.g., warming is largest in the Southwest, consistent with expected amplified warming in dry subtropical regions. Similarly summer warming is amplified in the Mediterranean and Middle East region, where at minimum it intensifies drought conditions such as those of Syria in recent years, if not being a principal cause of the drought.

Results for additional individual nations are available at www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/CO2Emissions/.

Human health is affected by higher temperature via impacts on heat waves, drought, fires, floods and storms, and indirectly by ecological disruptions brought on by climate change including shifting patterns of disease (see Chapter 11 of IPCC, 2014, and references therein). Vector-borne diseases, usually involving infections transmitted by blood-sucking mosquitoes or ticks, can spread to higher latitudes and greater altitudes as global war

In an assembly of 60 quantitative studies covering all major world regions, it is found that interpersonal violence increases by 4% and intergroup conflict by 14% for each standard deviation increase of temperature. Such findings do not constitute natural laws, but they provide a useful empirical estimate of impacts of temperature change.

Human health is affected by higher temperature via impacts on heat waves, drought, fires, floods and storms, and indirectly by ecological disruptions brought on by climate change including shifting patterns of disease (see Chapter 11 of IPCC, 2014, and references therein). Vector-borne diseases, usually involving infections transmitted by blood-sucking mosquitoes or ticks, can spread to higher latitudes and greater altitudes as global warming increases.

National responsibilities for global warming can be assigned because fossil fuel CO2 is the main cause of long-term warming. Deforestation and agricultural activities contribute to airborne CO2, but restoration of soil and biosphere carbon is possible via improved agricultural and forestry practices and, indeed that is required if climate is to be stabilized. In contrast, fossil fuel carbon will not be removed from the climate system for millennia. Other trace gases contribute to climate change, but CO2 causes 80% of the increase of greenhouse gas climate forcing in the past two decades and much of the other 20% is related to fossil fuel mining or fossil fuel use.

Climate change is accurately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions (Fig. 3a). The U.S. and Europe are each responsible for more than a quarter of cumulative emissions, China for about 10% and India 3%. The disparity between developed and developing country emissions is even greater with consumption-based accounting of emissions. Even without consumption-based accounting, the per capita emissions of the U.S. and Europe are at least an order of magnitude greater than most developing countries.

There is thus a striking incongruity between locations of largest climate change and responsibility for fossil fuel emissions. Largest bell curve shifts are in tropical rainforest, Southeast Asia, the Sahara and Sahel, where fossil fuel emissions are very small. Climate change is also large in the Middle East, where emissions are large and rapidly growing, with several nations having higher per capita emissions than the United States (see paper).

Discussion. We conclude that continued business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions will begin to make low latitudes inhospitable. If accompanied by multi-meter sea level rise, resulting forced migration and economic disruption could be devastating.

Even global warming as small as 2°C, sometimes called a safe guardrail, may have large effects. Bell curve shifts shown for 2005-2015 result from global warming of ~0.6°C relative to 1951-80. Thus 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial (1.7°C relative to 1951-1980) will result in bell curve shifts and climate impacts about three times greater than those that have occurred already. Global warming of 2°C is expected to cause sea level rise of several meters, leading to inference that the potential sea level rise this century is dangerous.

The overall message that climate science delivers to society, policymakers, and the public alike is this: we have a global emergency. Fossil fuel CO2 emissions should be reduced as rapidly as practical. We argue that country-by-country goals, the approach of the 21st Conference of the Parties cannot lead to rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions, as long as fossil fuels are allowed to be the cheapest energy. It will be necessary to include a carbon fee that allows the external costs of fossil fuels to be incorporated in their price. Border duties on products from countries without a carbon fee, would lead to most nations adopting a carbon fee.

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis reports have been updated on the website. Correction dead ahead for stocks.

Saturday, March 05, 2016

Danielle Fong: Co-Founder of LightSail Energy


Danielle Fong is passionate about finding a solution to energy sustainability. "I have patience with people but not with systems" and her life choices proves this. With guidance and advice from fellow contemporary innovators like Steve Jobs she continued to follow her vision of finding the missing technology -something she instinctively felt- to conserve energy.

Self-described as ‘a girl from the future’, the 27-year-old Canadian innovator, entrepreneur and eco-pragmatist has been featured in Forbes' 30 under 30 in the category of Energy & Industry, as well as interviewed by Forbes.com in a video entitled "Danielle Fong May Save the World". She has also been named as one of the “Top 35 Innovators under 35” by the MIT Technology Review. Left junior high school at the age of 12 to attend Dalhousie University, graduated with first class honors in computer science and physics, then entered the Plasma Physics Department at Princeton University as a PhD student. She went on to co-found LightSail Energy, where she currently works as “Chief Science Officer” developing a form of compressed air energy storage. Danielle works actively to mentor and inspire entrepreneurship and invention in hard technology, working as a mentor. She tours extensively, speaking on behalf of invention and the environment, and publishes essays at www.daniellefong.com.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

Thursday, March 03, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Overbought stocks have almost reached our price target of SPX 2000.

Tuesday, March 01, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Nice Head and Shoulders patterns point toward reversals to the downside in stocks.

Monday, February 29, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The countertrend rally is getting long in the tooth now.

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. While it's a bear market, a substantial percentage of stocks remain in uptrends.

Friday, February 26, 2016

Electric vehicles could be as cheap as gas-guzzlers soon

Tesla shares have been on a tear lately. Buyers are pouring money into the stock at a great rate as our Money Flow indicator shows: Electric vehicles could be as cheap as gas-guzzlers soon:

With gas prices at less than $2 a gallon, it may be hard to imagine trading in the old combustion engine for an electric vehicle, but according to new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the age of the EV could be just around the corner.

The study published on Thursday predicts that battery prices — which have already fallen 35 percent in the past year — will continue to drop steeply in the coming years. By the 2020s, EVs could be just as affordable as, if not cheaper than, gas-powered vehicles. Sales of EVs, according to the report, will make up nearly 35 percent of market by 2040.

Thirty-five percent is huge growth considering that today EVs sales make up less than 3 percent of the market. Manufacturers are certainly taking notice: Chevy, Nissan, Fiat, Ford, Volkswagen, and Mitsubishi all currently have EVs on the market in the $30,000 range — and if price isn’t your main concern, you can always buy luxury EVs from BMW, Mercedes, or Tesla.

The growth of the electric vehicle does not bode well for the oil market, which is already suffering from crude oil prices as low as $30 a barrel. As Bloomberg News points out, “electric vehicles could displace oil demand of 2 million barrels a day as early as 2023. That would create a glut of oil equivalent to what triggered the 2014 oil crisis.”

But while the death of Big Oil is undoubtedly good for the planet, what exactly are the environmental costs of the electric vehicle? They don’t run on air, after all: The electricity powering your EV has to come from somewhere, and depending on where you live, that “somewhere” could mean coal-fired power plants. The good news is that a 2015 report from the Union of Concerned Scientists found that in U.S., EVs emit less than half the greenhouse gases than gas-guzzlers do on average, even when you account for the manufacturing process. But, as Mother Jones reports, the materials used to make EV batteries introduce other problems: Cobalt mining has been linked to child labor, and lithium mining linked to water pollution and depletion.

So, the electric vehicle can’t entirely assuage the conscientious driver’s guilt. But there’s always another choice beyond either gassing up or hitting the power station every couple hundred miles. It’s not for everyone, but for those of us who can make it work, there is a greater option, a greener option. It’s efficient, inexpensive, and already on the road. That’s right — the humble, old city bus.

Read original ....

Thursday, February 25, 2016

Bloomberg Predicts Electric Cars Will Cause Next Oil Crash

Bloomberg predicts that by 2023, more people will be driving electric, which will cause the demand for oil to drop by 2,000,000 barrels a day. When that happens, it says there will be another crash in oil prices. Read more...

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Why stocks are acting like little puppy dogs now.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Oil leads the way on the downside, then the upside.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Does platinum lead gold? We look at history for evidence tonight.

NIRP Coming Soon? (Video)

Can you imagine a retirement fund that earns less than 0%?

Negative interest rates may soon arrive in the United States—which means you could be “taxed” on previously interest-paying investments, such as CDs, savings accounts, and US government bonds.

Several European countries, the ECB, and now Japan have already established a NIRP (negative interest rate policy).

Fed heads from Janet Yellen to Stanley Fischer have stated they may be in favor of it if the economic situation in the US “warranted” it… which, as we all know, could mean anything.

Two of Mauldin Economics’ top editors—Tony Sagami and Jared Dillian—sat down for a video interview to discuss their thoughts on the possible advent of NIRP:

Monday, February 22, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. NIRP is coming and will bring big changes to the economy, including crminalizing the holding of cash.

Sunday, February 21, 2016

Last week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. More rally ahead for equities this week, but dip first.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Investors, not trusting the stock market, decided to patch up the piggy bank today.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Where are investors pulling funds to buy stocks again? The bond market!

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities get a bid, but can they hold the trend for long?

Monday, February 15, 2016

Elon Musk on the Coming Population Implosion (Video)

What Markets Are Telling Us

By Ron Paul
Last week US stock markets tumbled yet again, leaving the Dow Jones index down almost 1500 points for the year. In fact, most major world markets are in negative territory this year. There are many Wall Street cheerleaders who are trying to say that this is just a technical correction, that the bottom is near, and that everything will be getting better soon. They are ignoring the real message the markets are trying to send: you cannot print your way to prosperity.
People throughout history have always sought to acquire wealth. Most of them understand that it takes hard work, sacrifice, savings, and investment. But many are always looking for that "get rich quick" scheme. Monetary cranks throughout history have thought that just printing more money would result in greater wealth and prosperity. Every time this was tried it resulted in failure. Huge economic booms would be followed by even larger busts. But no matter how many times the cranks were debunked both in theory and practice, the same failed ideas kept coming back.
The intellectual descendants of those monetary cranks are now leading the world's central banks, which is why the last decade has seen an explosion of money creation. And what do the central bankers have to show for it? Lackluster employment numbers that have not kept up with population growth, increasing economic inequality, a rising cost of living, and constant fear and uncertainty about what the future holds.
The past decade has been a lot like the 1920s, when prices wanted to drop but the Federal Reserve kept the price level steady through injections of easy money into the economy. The result in the 1920s was the Great Depression. But in the 1920s prices were dropping because of increased production. More goods being produced meant lower prices, which the Fed then tried to prop up by printing money. Unlike the "Roaring 20s" however, the economy isn't quite as strong today. It's more of a gasp than a roar.
Production today is barely above 2007 levels, while heavily-indebted households already hurt during the financial crisis don't want to keep spending. The bad debts and mal-investments from the last Federal Reserve-induced boom were never liquidated, they were merely papered over with more easy money. The underlying economic fundamentals remain weak but the monetary cranks who run the Fed keep trying to pump more and more money into the system. They fail to realize that easy money is the cause, not the cure, of recessions and depressions. They didn't realize that prices needed to drop in order to clear all the bad debt and mal-investments out of the system. Because they don't realize that, we are on the verge of yet another financial crisis.
Don't be confused by any stock market rallies over the next few months and think that the worst is over. Remember that after Black Tuesday in 1929 the Dow Jones rallied over the next year before it began slowly and steadily to sink again. The central bankers will do everything they can to delay the inevitable. If they had allowed housing prices to fall in 2008 and hadn't bailed out the big Wall Street banks, the economy would have corrected itself. Yes, it would have been a severe correction, but it would have been nothing compared to the inevitable correction that will present itself when the Fed runs out of easy money options. The Fed may try to cut interest rates again, maybe even going negative, or it will do more quantitative easing, but that won't work. Creating more money does not lead to economic growth and well-being. The more money the Federal Reserve creates, the more ordinary Americans will end up suffering.
Copyright © 2016 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit ad a live link are given.

Sunday, February 14, 2016

What We Knew 36 Years Ago

We knew of the problems caused by Global Warming a long time ago:

Clearly, we are making the same mistake Noah warned us about.

BP's Self-Serving Energy Outlook

When you ask a large fossil fuel extractor like BP (didn't they tell us BP stood for “Beyond Petroleum?”) what the future will look like, of course you get what they want you to see. Steve Hanley writes in BP Energy Outlook Sees The World Through Oil Colored Glasses:

The BP report expects renewables to account for only 9% of the world’s total energy needs by 2035. That is far lower than many proponents of alternative energy anticipate. Bloomberg New Energy Finance and the International Renewable Energy Agency both predict renewable energy could supply as much as 30% of global energy demand by 2030, especially if the accords reached in Paris are implemented by major emissions sources like the US, China, and India.

“This is a story of how an oil and gas company predicts the rosy prospects of oil and gas companies,” explained Greg Muttitt of Oil Change International. “BP would like us to believe that government action on climate will fail, that clean technologies will fizzle, and that the future of energy will still be based on the carbon fuels of the past.

“Every year, BP has predicted that the growth in renewable energy will slow down, and each time it has been wrong. This year, again it massively downplays renewables, estimating they will provide a mere 15% of world electricity in 2030 – in spite of wind and solar achieving grid parity in most of the world, and in spite of government action arising from the Paris Agreement.”

“Dressed in a veneer of concern about climate change, in fact BP’s outlook is a public relations exercise, designed to boost fossil fuels and undermine public faith in clean alternatives. Meanwhile it deflects responsibility to government or to coal companies, to distract from its own extraction of oil and gas. This is not a credible view of the future of energy.”

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

A preliminary version of #SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We'll have more later on Sunday.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Entering the Belly of the Epocalypse

David Haggith writes:

Only a couple of weeks ago, I said we were entering the jaws of the Epocalypse. Now we are sliding rapidly down the great beast’s throat toward its cavernous belly. The biggest economic collapse the world has ever seen is consuming everything — all commodities, all industries, all national economies, all monetary systems, and eventually all peace and stability. This is the mother of all recessions.

That’s a big statement to swallow, especially when many don’t see the beast because we’re already inside of it. You need to look down from 100,000 feet up in order to observe the scale of this monster that is rising up out of the sea and to see how rapidly it is enveloping the globe and how the world’s collapse into its throat is accelerating. The belly of this leviathan is a swirling black hole, composed of all the word’s debts, that is large enough to swallow every economy on earth.

Mexican retail billionaire Hugo Salinas Price has looked long into the stomach of this mammoth, and this is what he has seen:

 

[Global] debt [as a percentage of GDP] peaked in August of 2014. I’ve been watching this for 20 years, and I have never seen anything like it. It was always growing, and now something has changed. A big change of this sort is an enormous event. I think it portends a new trend, and that trend will be to get out of debt. Deleverage and pay down debt. That is, of course, a contraction. Contraction means depression. The world is going into a depression. It’s going to get very nasty. (USAWatchdog)

 

So, let’s step back and look at the big picture in order to see how immense this thing is: (One thing that you’ll notice is common in the statements of many sources below is comparisons to 2008, when we first entered the Great Recession. You hear that comparison every day now, which says many people feel that, after piling on trillions of dollars and trillions of euros and trillions of ___ in debt to save ourselves, we are right back where we started … but exhausted from the effort.)

Continue reading...

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What does the dog do after he catches the car he was chasing?

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It's your Crazy Ex-Bull Market, isn't it?

Tuesday, February 09, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. NASDAQ held a key support trendline on Tuesday, but oil remains a bearish force.

Monday, February 08, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the bear market taking any prisoners?

Sunday, February 07, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We will publish our #WeekendAnalysis report later today.

Thursday, February 04, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Employment Report should be a market force Friday morning. Be very careful.

Was the Republican Primary in Iowa Rigged?

Scott Adams makes a very good case for the Iowa primary to have been rigged to stop Trump. In News Flash: Cartoonist Gets One Wrong!, Adams says,

I’m not saying the vote in Iowa was rigged. I’m just saying the result is exactly the same as what one would expect from a well-engineered and rigged election. But that could be a coincidence.

Now consider motive and opportunity. Lots of people in both of the major parties want to stop Trump. And the GOP establishment is probably betting on Rubio as their best hope. Suspects are everywhere.

As for opportunity, the Iowa caucus system was designed and implemented by humans. Wherever you have humans, you have problems. Hedge funds are crooks, priests are molesting kids, and that sort of thing.

As I have said in prior blog posts, the stock market is definitely rigged. I say that with certainty simply because it is possible, the risk of detection is low, and the gains are enormous. Whenever you see that combination, crime is guaranteed.

The Iowa caucus might be an exception to the universal law of human awfulness. We can hope that is the case. But keep in mind that it would only take one player to rig the result.

Now consider that a healthy percentage of the American public believes Donald Trump is literally a Hitler-in-waiting. If an American patriot in Iowa had a chance to take down Hitler and save billions of lives, I hope he or she took the shot. That’s what I expect of my fellow-citizens. 

As a thought experiment, put yourself in the shoes of an Iowan who has the opportunity to rig the Republican caucus vote. You alone might have the power to stop Trump-Hitler. If you don’t, the next Holocaust is on you. 

What do you do?

As an American and a patriot, I hope you rigged the election to save us all from Hitler. If you didn’t take the shot when you had it, why not? If I were in that situation – and I believed in my heart that I could stop Hitler – I would feel obligated to do it. How could you feel otherwise?

And if I were a GOP establishment person who just wanted to keep the military-industrial machine intact, I would have that motive as well. 

I’m not saying the Republican caucus in Iowa was rigged. All I’m saying is that the result looks exactly like it was rigged, and the people who had the opportunity had the best motive in the history of all motives. You might say they had the mother of all motives and a few aunts of motives as well. 

As I was having these thoughts last night, some folks on Twitter mentioned that Republicans were using a new Microsoft app to tally results. Apparently that system was a bit buggy. Microsoft provided the system for free. 

Oh, and Microsoft is Rubio’s biggest donor

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It was a Wednesday Turnaround for oil and it pulled commodities higher.

Tuesday, February 02, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Fossil fuels pulled the plug in the stock market as gasoline plunged below a buck a gallon.

Monday, February 01, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. After Accumulation Lows on many Volume Oscillators, new uptrends are trying to get started in equities.

Sunday, January 31, 2016

Is Congress Declaring War on ISIS…or on You?

By Ron Paul (Read online at http://bit.ly/1nWPSsg)

Passage of Senator Mitch McConnell’s authorization for war against ISIS will not only lead to perpetual US wars across the globe, it will also endanger our civil and economic liberties. The measure allows the president to place troops anywhere he determines ISIS is operating. Therefore, it could be used to justify using military force against United States citizens on US territory. It may even be used to justify imposing martial law in America.

The President does not have to deploy the US military to turn America into a militarized police state, however. He can use his unlimited authority to expand programs that turn local police forces into adjuncts of the US military, and send them increasing amounts of military equipment. Using the threat of ISIS to justify increased police militarization will be enthusiastically supported by police unions, local officials, and, of course, politically-powerful defense contractors. The only opposition will come from citizens whose rights have been violated by a militarized police force that views the people as the enemy.

Even though there is no evidence that the government’s mass surveillance programs have prevented even a single terrorist attack, we are still continuously lectured about how we must sacrifice our liberty for security. The cries for the government to take more of our privacy will grow louder as the war party and its allies in the media continue to hype the threat of terrorism. A president armed with the authority to do whatever it takes to stop ISIS will no doubt heed these calls for new restrictions on our privacy.

Following last year’s mass shooting in California, President Obama called for restricting the Second Amendment rights of any American on the “terrorist watch list.” The president also used the attacks to expand the unconstitutional gun background check system via executive action. Can anyone doubt that President Obama — or a future anti-gun president — will use the absolute power to do whatever is necessary to stop terrorism as a justification for imposing new gun control measures? Using the war on ISIS to justify more gun control will be particularly attractive since even many pro-gun politicians will support gun control measures if they are marketed as part of the war on terror.

As the American economy faces continued stagnation, and as challenges to the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency mount, an increasingly authoritarian government will impose new restrictions on our economic activities and new limits on our financial privacy. In particular, our ability to move assets out of the country will be limited, and new reporting and other requirements will limit our ability to use cash without being treated as criminals or terrorists. Those who carry large amounts of cash will find themselves at increased risk of having the cash confiscated by government agents under civil asset forfeiture laws.

If Senator McConnell’s declaration of perpetual war passes, presidents could use the war on ISIS as a justification to impose new restrictions on our use of cash and our financial privacy via executive action. After all, they will say, the government needs to make sure cash is not being used to support ISIS.

The only way to protect both liberty and security is to stop trying to impose our will on other countries by military force. The resentment created by America's militaristic foreign policy is ISIS’ most effective recruiting tool. Adopting a non-interventionist foreign policy that seeks peace and free trade with all would enable the government to counter legitimate threats to our safety without creating an authoritarian police state.

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Buy signals are popping up like spring flowers.

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Groundhog Day is looking to be a significant change-in-trend day.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Why the most precious metal isn't bullish for a gold bull market yet.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. ABC rally in equities now underway, but now in the middle down part.

Sunday, January 24, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis PDF have been updated on the website. The dead rat bounce should continue!

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks still on track to start a bear market rally next week.

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks are telegraphing they want to bottom soon.

The Fed is Sucking the Lifeblood Out of the Economy

When the Fed decided last month to raise the Fed Funds rate from 0% to ¼%, most commentators pointed out the insignificance of a ¼% rate hike. But, when you think about it, that's an infinite percentage increase in the rate. This point is important because the Fed has to drain liquidity from the banking system in order to keep the rate at ¼%. E.D. Skyrm, managing director of Wedbush Securities estimates the Fed needs to drain between $310 billion and $800 billion in liquidity to achieve this.

The Fed does this through “reverse repos,” which means it sells Treasury bonds to banks and receives payment via the bank’s reserves. In short, it amounts to decreasing the amount of liquidity in the banking system.

In other words, the gang of lawyers who run the Fed has decided to suck the lifeblood out of the economy in order to raise interest rates from zero to ¼%. The effect so far is that the stock market is crashing and jobs will follow, circling the drain on the way down. This is exactly the same stupidity the Fed pulled in 1937 in the middle of the Great Depression: they crashed both the stock market and the economy and prolonged the depression for another decade. In fact, their actions almost certainly resulted in Germany starting World War II. That shouldn't have happened and the only we can ensure that we don't go through this cycle again is to END THE FED.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. When will the Fed recognize a recession has started?

Sunday, January 17, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We'll update the #Weekend Report later today.

Thursday, January 14, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities approaching a bottom, apparently

Solar and Wind Just Did the Unthinkable

Bloomberg New Energy reports:
The sun and the wind continue to defy gravity.
Renewables just finished another record-breaking year, with more money invested ($329 billion) and more capacity added (121 gigawatts) than ever before, according to new data released Thursday by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
This wasn't supposed to happen. Oil, coal and natural gas bottomed out over the last 18 months, with bargain prices not seen in a decade. That's just one of a handful of reasons 2015 should have been a rough year for clean energy. But the opposite was true.

The momentum toward sustainable energy is too powerful to let cheap fossil fuels derail it now. The majority of our electricity will be generated by solar power by the 2030s. Note that wind power originates in energy pumped into our atmosphere from our fusion power reactor in the sky.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities are still collapsing as bond prices soar

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Revolutionizing Battery Storage Key to Fast Tracking Renewables


The grid has not changed much since the days of Thomas Edison, George Crabtree, senior scientist at Argonne National Laboratory, told PBS's The Good Stuff in the video above. While other industries have made dramatic advances in the last century, he said, the electrical grid has remained largely the same. "Imagine that we brought back Alexander Graham Bell, the inventor of the telephone, and we showed him our cell phones He'd be baffled," Crabtree said. "Now, bring back Thomas Edison and show him the grid as we have it now and he would instantly recognize every feature of that grid," he said. "He'd say Oh, I understand that grid. I know how it works In fact, I could run the grid for you if you'd like.'"
But all that is about to change, Crabtree predicted. "It may be 5 to 10 to 15 years off, but I think it will come," he said.

It's coming alright . . . and much faster than the experts think.

Read more here.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Has shipping stopped? The world economy appears to be flat on its back now.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

The Great Bear Market of 2016

One thing investors may not realize is that bear markets generally can have the best rallies. The current bear market has come a long way in a short period of time. We could see a strong rally back this coming week, but a significant seasonal and cycle low is likely to come in later in January.

#WeekendAnalysis PDF report is now ready for subscribers to view on the website.

Saturday, January 09, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We'll be updating the #WeekendAnalyis Report on Sunday.

Whoopee: US economy Creates only 11,000 jobs last month

David Stockman ferrets out this factoid about the December jobs report released Friday morning: Here's a newsflash that CNBC didn't mention. According to the BLS, the US economy generated a miniscule 11,000 jobs in the month of December.
But on the apparent theory that December is colder than November, and notwithstanding that almost nobody works outside anymore, the BLS fiction writers added 281,000 to their headline number to cover the "seasonal adjustment."
Of course, this December was much warmer, not colder, than average. Likewise, Christmas season bricks and mortar retail is in turmoil and in secular decline due to Amazon and its e-commerce ilk; export based sectors have been thrown for a loop in the last few months by a surging dollar; and construction activity has been so weak in this cycle—-and for the good reason that both commercial and residential stock is vastly overbuilt owing to two decades of cheap credit——that its not remotely comparable to historic patterns.

Thursday, January 07, 2016

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Only 21.6% of NYSE stocks remain in uptrends, confirming the bear trend

The Solar Singularity Is Getting Closer

Solar power is heading for dominance by the 2030s, as we've written before. Tam Hunt updates his case for the Solar Singularity Getting Closer:

The “solar singularity” is the point where solar becomes so cheap in a majority of countries around the world that it is established as the default new power source. At this point, solar will very likely go vertical in its growth curve.

GTM Research forecasts solar prices falling steadily through 2020 and a global market of 135 gigawatts per year in the same year, up from 55 gigawatts installed in 2015. (That is enough to power approximately 10 million California homes.) This growth trend through 2020 constitutes about half (yes, half) of all projected new global electrical capacity in each year.

Conventional solar is silicon-based, but new technologies have the potential to make solar far cheaper if those technologies develop as they appear likely to do so.

Renewables provided almost half of all new power generation globally in 2014, according to the International Energy Agency. The agency's executive director, Fatih Birol, summed up the trend: “[Renewables are] no longer a niche. Renewable energy has become a mainstream fuel, as of now.”

Wednesday, January 06, 2016

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed is lying and the economy is not out of recession. They will soon rue the day they starting hiking interest rates.

Double dilemma for Paris climate deal

By Alex Kirby, Climate News Network

The UN’s achievement last month in persuading world leaders to agree on measures to tackle climate change leaves two prominent climate scientists far from convinced.

LONDON, 1 January, 2016 – Within days of the conclusion of the Paris Agreement at the UN talks in mid-December, two leading US scientists have cast serious doubt on its ability to avert dangerous levels of climate change.

One, James Hansen, says that to think world leaders are doing something significant about the problem is “baloney”, and urges the use of nuclear power and every other form of energy which does not involve the release of carbon.

The other, Michael Mann, argues that the world is “closer to the dangerous 2°C warming mark than many experts acknowledge”, and that continuing global carbon dioxide emissions from human activities at present rates will commit the Earth to 2°C in less than three years from now.

Both men differ substantially on the right way to act, and key parts of their proposals appear too unpopular or too impractical to work. But they do agree that the situation is so urgent that it demands immediate action.

“We really have an emergency because of the inertia of the system”

Mann writes: “We don’t have a third of our total carbon budget left to expend. . .We’ve already expended the vast majority of the budget for remaining under 2°C. And what about 1.5°C stabilisation? We’re already overdrawn.” Hansen believes that “we need all hands on deck”.

Hansen, the former director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Sciences, speaking to the American Geophysical Union, said: “We really have an emergency because of the inertia of the system.”

“A solution is possible, and economic[ally] sensible”, and it’s not being advocated by any nation, said Hansen, who expressed frustration about the outcome of the UN climate conference. The idea that the world is “making good progress” is “baloney.”

His preferred solution is a carbon fee-and-dividend, with all collected fees (taxes) redistributed on an equal per capita basis. Such a system has been backed also by groups such as the Citizens Climate Lobby.

Sixty percent of Americans would make money in that system, he says, because it is the rich members of society who emit more than their individual share of carbon dioxide.

Hansen dismisses as “half-assed and half-baked” the idea that a country like India would cap emissions now, nor could the UN force any country to cap its emissions or tax them. So he suggests a carbon duty on imports, which other countries would have to match out of self-interest.

Right to burn

He is also dismissive about carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technology, so far unproven at a commercial scale, describing it as “pure unadulterated bull. . .India and China won’t do it. It’s too expensive, and who wants the CO2 underneath them?”

China and India “have, of course, every right to raise their people out of poverty the same way we did, by burning fossil fuels.”

Restating his well-known championship of nuclear power, Hansen says using fossil fuels is very dangerous by comparison with nuclear power plants.

Mann is director of the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. In a closely-argued article, How close are we to “dangerous” planetary warming?, he says the idea that 2015 was the year in which global average temperatures passed the 1°C milestone, halfway to the danger level, is mistaken.

Half-way point passed

He writes of the many reports that “2015 will be the first year where temperatures climbed to 1°C above the pre-industrial. That might make it seem like we’ve got quite a ways to go until we breach the 2°C limit. But the claim is wrong. We exceeded 1°C warming more than a decade ago.”

The world needs to limit net carbon emissions to about 3,000 Gigatons (three trillion tons) of CO2 to have a chance of staying within 2°C. Yet, Mann writes, “We’ve already burned through about 2,000 Gigatons, i.e. we have expended two thirds of our apparent carbon budget.”

The more the world delays rapid reductions in fossil fuel burning, he argues, the more it will need to offset additional carbon emissions by sequestering atmospheric carbon, either through massive reforestation projects, or with geo-engineering technology such as direct air capture, which involves literally sucking the CO2 back out of the atmosphere.

Mann says: “We’re already close to 1.2°C net warming for the northern hemisphere relative to a true pre-industrial baseline. . .So what’s the bottom line? Well, we’re actually closer to the dangerous 2°C warming mark than many experts acknowledge. And yet there is still hope for limiting warming to 2°C. . .”

For him and for Hansen, it seems, the Paris Agreement will work only on conditions that millions will find either unacceptable or unachievable. Nuclear power has few supporters, and carbon capture and storage looks unlikely to succeed. – Climate News Network

Tuesday, January 05, 2016

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The roller coaster ride continues as the recession becomes more obvious.

Monday, January 04, 2016

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Only 26.9% of NYSE common stocks are above their 200-dma. Sign of the bear?

Sunday, January 03, 2016

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Stocks likely to be weak in 2016.

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds nearing an important buy signal now.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Risk-on returns as oil and stocks bounce and bonds take gas.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Buy bonds" proved profitable on Monday. Has Santa left the building?

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Seasonals Continue This Week in the Energy Markets

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis reports have been updated on the website. Santa brought a January Effect rally last week.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Global Warming Brings a Blue Christmas to Texas

A White Christmas is rare in Texas, but climate change may be responsible for the first Blue Christmas this year. The state flower—bluebonnets—normally bloom in spring. But, reports are that the bluebonnets are being fooled by global warming and blooming months early this year.

Somebody should tell Ted Cruz. He's a science denier. If the bluebonnets are blooming early, it shows how big changes are happening to our climate.

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa Clause Rally boosts stocks, but pummels bonds. Reversal coming?

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A weak DXY helped lift equities today. Bonds could be close to a change-in-trend.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Has volatility been drained from the market? Mahoney has Christmas Day to be a high on his Panic Scale.

Do We Need the Fed?

By Ron Paul, originally published at Ron Paul Institute

Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed’s announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.

At her Wednesday press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged continuing “cyclical weakness” in the job market. She also suggested that future rate increases are likely to be as small, or even smaller, then Wednesday’s. However, she also expressed concerns over increasing inflation, which suggests the Fed may be open to bigger rate increases.

Many investors and those who rely on interest from savings for a substantial part of their income cheered the increase. However, others expressed concern that even this small rate increase will weaken the already fragile job market.

These critics echo the claims of many economists and economic historians who blame past economic crises, including the Great Depression, on ill-timed money tightening by the Fed. While the Federal Reserve is responsible for our boom-bust economy, recessions and depressions are not caused by tight monetary policy. Instead, the real cause of economic crisis is the loose money policies that precede the Fed’s tightening.

When the Fed floods the market with artificially created money, it lowers the interest rates, which are the price of money. As the price of money, interest rates send signals to businesses and investors regarding the wisdom of making certain types of investments. When the rates are artificially lowered by the Fed instead of naturally lowered by the market, businesses and investors receive distorted signals. The result is over-investment in certain sectors of the economy, such as housing.

This creates the temporary illusion of prosperity. However, since the boom is rooted in the Fed’s manipulation of the interest rates, eventually the bubble will burst and the economy will slide into recession. While the Federal Reserve may tighten the money supply before an economic downturn, the tightening is simply a futile attempt to control the inflation resulting from the Fed’s earlier increases in the money supply.

After the bubble inevitably bursts, the Federal Reserve will inevitability try to revive the economy via new money creation, which starts the whole boom-bust cycle all over again. The only way to avoid future crashes is for the Fed to stop creating inflation and bubbles.

Some economists and policy makers claim that the way to stop the Federal Reserve from causing economic chaos is not to end the Fed but to force the Fed to adopt a “rules-based” monetary policy. Adopting rules-based monetary policy may seem like an improvement, but, because it still allows a secretive central bank to manipulate the money supply, it will still result in Fed-created booms and busts.

The only way to restore economic stability and avoid a major economic crisis is to end the Fed, or at least allow Americans to use alterative currencies. Fortunately, more Americans than ever are studying Austrian economics and working to change our monetary system.

Thanks to the efforts of this growing anti-Fed movement, Audit the Fed had twice passed the House of Representatives, and the Senate is scheduled to vote on it on January 12. Auditing the Fed, so the American people can finally learn the full truth about the Fed’s operations, is an important first step in restoring a sound monetary policy. Hopefully, the Senate will take that step and pass Audit the Fed in January.

Copyright © 2015 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
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Sunday, December 20, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Volatility rules in stock and bond markets.

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Booming Solar Market: An Entrepreneurial Opportunity

Mike Munsell of Greentech Media writes:

The ITC extension currently written into the omnibus spending bill will result in a 20-gigawatt annual solar market in the U.S. by 2020.

A five-year extension to the solar investment tax credit (ITC), which is currently included in the omnibus spending bill under consideration in Congress, would result in 25 gigawatts (GW) of additional solar capacity over the next five years -- a 54 percent increase over a no-extension scenario. According to GTM Research, which just released a preliminary updated state- and segment-level forecasts based on the current omnibus language, ITC extension will foster $40 billion in incremental investment in solar between 2016 and 2020.

FIGURE: U.S. PV Installations With and Without ITC Extension, 2010-2020

Source: GTM Research

"The ITC extension currently written into the omnibus spending bill will result in a 20-gigawatt annual solar market in the U.S. by 2020," said Shayle Kann, senior VP of GTM Research. "At that rate, more solar will be installed each year than was added to the grid cumulatively through 2014."

Compare that projection to the total amount of solar added during 2015: just 3 gigawatts. Clearly, this slow-growth economy has a pocket of high growth within it.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa is MIA, but our signals are working profitably.

Sustainable Non-Fossil Fuel Energy Is Within Reach

Elon Musk explains what it will take to tap into an endless source of free energy in this talk he gave in Paris on December 2nd:

In an interview on December 15 at the American Geophysical Union meeting, Musk mentioned that if we covered just a corner of Utah or Nevada with solar panels, we could power the entire US, as Nature News' Lauren Morello reported.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Long term rates are heading lower, not higher. The TV journalists get it wrong.

Solar Savings

According to Solar City, their customers have reaped the following benefits by going solar: Estimated savings by their customers so far: $145,800,888 and
2,462,014 Tons of CO2 conserved by their customers and counting

Equivalent to not driving a car for 5,827,884,920 miles or avoiding the use of 1,402,645,723 gallons of water.

Solar City Urges Congress To Boost Solar and Fight Climate Change

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity urged Congress to swiftly pass comprehensive legislation that includes an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar. The provision, included in sweeping appropriations and tax bills introduced by House Speaker Paul Ryan today, is the result of weeks-long bipartisan negotiations between Senate and House leaders.

The proposed legislation would follow on the heels of the historic global climate agreement in Paris, where 195 countries committed to tackle climate change and galvanize greater investment in clean energy. Consistent, long-term policies supporting solar energy, along with other clean energy sources, are critical to the growth of a lower-carbon economy. This week, analysts told the National Journal that lifting the ban on crude oil exports would have a negligible impact on U.S. carbon emissions, while greater support and certainty for solar could more than double the nation's total installed solar capacity.

"On behalf of over 15,000 employees here in the U.S. and nearly 300,000 customers, SolarCity applauds the bipartisan agreement that prioritizes the growth of solar in the United States," said SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive. "Using clean energy is the most important step an individual can take to address climate change and protect future generations. Combined with the historic Paris climate agreement, long-term certainty for the ITC sends a strong signal to the marketplace that investment in clean energy is the right way to drive continued economic growth and job creation. We urge Congress to act quickly to enact the measure."

BACKGROUND:

The ITC, which was set to expire at the end of 2016, is a 30% federal tax credit for businesses (under Section 48 of the tax code) and homeowners (under Section 25D) to incentivize installation of solar energy systems, fuel cells, combined heat and power systems, microturbines, small wind systems, and geothermal heat pumps.

Since its creation in 2006, the ITC has delivered job growth, cost reductions, and domestic energy deployment across the country.

About SolarCity
SolarCity (SCTY) provides clean energy. The company has disrupted the century-old energy industry by providing renewable electricity directly to homeowners, businesses and government organizations for less than they spend on utility bills. SolarCity gives customers control of their energy costs to protect them from rising rates. The company makes solar energy easy by taking care of everything from design and permitting to monitoring and maintenance. SolarCity currently serves 19 states. Visit the company online at www.solarcity.com and follow the company on Facebook & Twitter.

SolarCity is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action employer committed to diversity in the workplace. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, protected veteran status, gender identity or any other factor protected by applicable federal, state or local laws.

This release contains forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding projections as to manufacturing timelines, volume and costs. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or results will be achieved, if at all. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward looking statements. You should read the section entitled "Risk Factors" in SolarCity's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and identifies certain of these and additional risks and uncertainties. We do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/solarcity-urges-swift-passage-of-bipartisan-year-end-tax-package-300193675.html

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Turnaround Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed hikes rates, the economy goes into recession. Will they be blamed?