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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today's Fed left no doubt about their pedal to the metal policy.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Polar Vortex Excursions Linked To Global Warming

It's pretty obvious that the polar vortex has been behaving badly over the last few years. So, it isn't any surprise that this misbehavior is linked to Global Warming. Phil Plait (Bad Astronomy) fills in the blanks in Polar Vortex Excursions Linked to Global Warming:
Over the past year or so, I've written a few times on how the "polar vortex"—actually, deep meanders or excursions in the usually stable west-to-east direction of the polar cyclonic air stream—may be tied to global warming, but there hadn't been enough research done yet to be sure.
Well, here we go: A team of Korean and American scientists has made the connection. Warmer waters lead to more melting of Arctic ice, which destabilizes the polar jet stream. My Slate colleague Eric Holthaus has an excellent write-up of it, and I wanted to give him a signal boost here. Go read it.
I mentioned at the time the idea that global warming may be affecting weather patterns, and of course the denial Noise Machine kicked into gear; I got a lot of comments and tweets mocking the idea.
Now, though, we have this new research upholding that conclusion. I'm not surprised. We know that global weather patterns depend on a lot of factors, but the amount of available heat—thinking of it as fuel might help—is a critical one. If you crank up the planet's thermostat you don't just make the climate hotter, you make it unstable.
It's like driving a car. A lot of factors have to balance for a safe drive: how much gas you give the engine, friction with the road, road surface conditions, weather, and so on. Step on the gas and you don't just go faster; all those factors play in, and it gets harder to control the vehicle. A small gust, a slick patch of highway, a pothole—their effects all get amplified. When you hit the gas too hard you're in for a very terrifying out-of-control ride.
And here we are, pedal to the metal.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is this a wave 2 bounce?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

NASA: "Climate Change in the Arctic Two To Three Times Faster"

NASA scientists are hard at work on Climate Change, which is happening faster than ever in the Arctic:

Over the past few decades, average global temperatures have been on the rise, and this warming is happening two to three times faster in the Arctic. As the region’s summer comes to a close, NASA is hard at work studying how rising temperatures are affecting the Arctic.

NASA researchers this summer and fall are carrying out three Alaska-based airborne research campaigns aimed at measuring greenhouse gas concentrations near Earth’s surface, monitoring Alaskan glaciers, and collecting data on Arctic sea ice and clouds. Observations from these NASA campaigns will give researchers a better understanding of how the Arctic is responding to rising temperatures.

The Arctic Radiation – IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment, or ARISE, is a new NASA airborne campaign to collect data on thinning sea ice and measure cloud and atmospheric properties in the Arctic. The campaign was designed to address questions about the relationship between retreating sea ice and the Arctic climate.

Arctic sea ice reflects sunlight away from Earth, moderating warming in the region. Loss of sea ice means more heat from the sun is absorbed by the ocean surface, adding to Arctic warming. In addition, the larger amount of open water leads to more moisture in the air, which affects the formation of clouds that have their own effect on warming, either enhancing or reducing it. [image-51]

“ARISE will link clouds and sea ice in a way that improves our computer models of the Arctic,” said Tom Wagner, cryospheric sciences program manager at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Our goal is to better understand both the causes of Arctic ice loss and the connections to the overall Earth system.”

The ARISE campaign, using NASA’s C-130 Hercules aircraft from Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, had its first science flight on Sept. 4 and has already carried out several surveys of sea ice and cloud conditions. The campaign is based in Fairbanks, Alaska.

“We are off to a great start collecting a timely and unique dataset to help better understand the potential influence of clouds on the Arctic climate as sea ice conditions change,” said William Smith, ARISE principal investigator at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.

CARVE, or Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment, is a five-year airborne research campaign that uses instruments aboard NASA aircraft to measure air and surface conditions and concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane. Using NASA’s C-23 Sherpa aircraft, CARVE flies approximately two weeks per month from May to November. Now that the mission is in its fourth year, researchers are building a detailed picture of how the land and atmosphere interact in the Arctic.

In high-latitude areas like Alaska, frozen ground known as permafrost can trap large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane produced by layers of decayed plant and animal matter. As permafrost temperatures have been increasing faster than air temperatures in the Arctic, scientists have questioned whether these heat-trapping gases could be released into the atmosphere, increasing their global concentrations.

“The exchange of carbon between the land and the atmosphere is very important – but uncertain,” said Charles Miller, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and principal investigator of CARVE.

Another area of interest in Alaska is its glaciers. Researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks have been taking airborne measurements of glacier surface height using a laser altimeter, an instrument that bounces a laser off of the ice surface and measures how long it takes to return. These flights are part of NASA’s Operation IceBridge, an airborne campaign that studies changes to land and sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic.

University researchers observe Alaskan glaciers twice a year, before and after the melt season, to determine how much ice they have lost or gained. The scientists have surveyed between 130 and 140 glaciers going back to the mid-1990s. IceBridge’s Alaska flights have found that glaciers across the state are declining rapidly, with those terminating on land and in lakes losing mass faster than expected.

Researchers are also finding that there is considerable variation in mass loss throughout Alaska. “One glacier might be doing better than the one next to it,” said Evan Burgess, University of Alaska Fairbanks scientist and member of the IceBridge Alaska team.

NASA monitors Earth's vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

For more information about NASA's Earth science activities in 2014, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

Monday, September 15, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Did the market bellwether send us a great signal today?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Stocks are making a seasonal high here. The next low is in October.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, September 13, 2014

The Path To Poverty in Scottish Independence

Scotland's people vote on Thursday to determine whether they will secede from Great Britain. Although in the larger scheme of things, Scotland should have taken this action about a century ago, a Yes vote now is likely to leave the new country on a downhill slide into poverty.

The reason? Scotland gets more money from London than it sends to Great Britain. Betting on fossil fuel revenue to make up the difference is simply a fool's agenda. Fossil fuels will not provide the kind of revenue Scotland needs in the future. It's hard medicine to swallow. But, it's simply a fact that the burning of fossil fuels will inevitably be phased out due to their deleterious effects on climate. Even if vast new fields of oil and gas were to be found in the North Sea around Scotland, something that's unknowable at this point in time, governments around the world will be banning the burning of fossil fuels in the future. This will force the price of oil down, not up.

In the cold light of day, Scottish independence seems to be a certain path to poverty for Scotland.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Cyberwar: Attack World Map

China attacks the US. The US attacks China. The ongoing cyberwar in pictures: Norse Cyberwar Map.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Steady as she goes" is the phrase—until the bottom falls out!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Climate Change Heroes

There are too few heroes anymore. But, when it comes to Climate Change, we have two heroes who prove that blocking fossil fuel combustion has its rewards. In How 2 Guys, A Lobster Boat, And A District Attorney Just Made Climate History, we have the seeds of a strategy that could pay huge dividends:
On Monday, outside of the Fall River Justice Center near the border of Rhode Island, Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter addressed a gaggle of eager reporters gathered for what they thought would be a multi-day hearing for two men who blocked a 40,000-ton shipment of coal from reaching New England's largest power station last May. However, Sutter shocked everyone by dropping the charges in under an hour, leaving the group anxious to understand what led to his decision to reduce the conspiracy, disturbing the peace, and two other civil disobedience charges against the climate activists. Having anchored a lobster boat in the freighter's shipping channel, the climate activists delayed the delivery of coal for a day in an effort to delay the impacts of climate change by raising awareness. Facing up to nine months in jail, they were suddenly off the hook. "Climate change is one of the gravest crises our planet has ever faced," Sutter said after explaining that the decision was made with the interests of the people of Bristol County in mind. "In my humble opinion, the political leadership on this issue has been gravely lacking."
The defendants, Jay O'Hara, 32, and Ken Ward, 57, who accepted all charges for blocking the tons of Appalachian coal that the "Energy Enterprise" was bringing to port, had submitted an uncommon and unused defense for their actions: the necessity defense. They argued that they had no choice but to act because the consequences of climate change are so dire. It just so happened that Sutter agreed with them. "As in all instances, I first had to consider the people of Bristol county," Sutter told ThinkProgress on Tuesday. "In addition to that, I had to give strong consideration to the cause that led to the act of civil disobedience. And I agree that climate change is one of the greatest crisis the planet has ever faced and that we have to act more boldly now."
Sutter had emerged from the justice center with a copy of a recent essay by climate author and activist Bill McKibben in hand. He said he found McKibben to be inspirational and that he believes "sand is moving through the hourglass" when it comes to climate change. Having come of age in the 1960s, Sutter said he is "acutely aware" of the acts of civil disobedience that took place in the fights against racial injustice, the Vietnam War, and South African apartheid, and that he placed the actions of Ward and O'Hara in that long and storied history.
Had Sutter allowed the prosecution to continue, McKibben was prepared to testify along with three other witnesses, including NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen, to support the argument of necessity defense. Sutter said he wasn't sure if the lawyers would have been able to meet the burden of proof in front of the judge, which includes meeting four legal standards in what amounts to an emergency situation requiring necessity defense. "I was concerned that they were going to great lengths of preparation and costs and would be thwarted by the judge saying no, you cant present defense," he said. "Fortunately we were able to come up with a negotiated decision."
Civil disobedience worked in the civil rights movement a half-century ago. Maybe it's time to bring it back for an encore.

The New Road Bandits: Police

"Stop and Seize" is the new mantra of the police. According to the Washington Post, Aggressive police take hundreds of millions of dollars from motorists not charged with crimes:
The spread of an aggressive brand of policing that has spurred the seizure of hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from motorists and others not charged with crimes, a Washington Post investigation found. Thousands of people have been forced to fight legal battles that can last more than a year to get their money back.
Behind the rise in seizures is a little-known cottage industry of private police-training firms that teach the techniques of "highway interdiction" to departments across the country.
One of those firms created a private intelligence network known as Black Asphalt Electronic Networking & Notification System that enabled police nationwide to share detailed reports about American motorists — criminals and the innocent alike — including their Social Security numbers, addresses and identifying tattoos, as well as hunches about which drivers to stop.
Many of the reports have been funneled to federal agencies and fusion centers as part of the government's burgeoning law enforcement intelligence systems — despite warnings from state and federal authorities that the information could violate privacy and constitutional protections.
A thriving subculture of road officers on the network now competes to see who can seize the most cash and contraband, describing their exploits in the network's chat rooms and sharing "trophy shots" of money and drugs. Some police advocate highway interdiction as a way of raising revenue for cash-strapped municipalities. "All of our home towns are sitting on a tax-liberating gold mine," Deputy Ron Hain of Kane County, Ill., wrote in a self-published book under a pseudonym. Hain is a marketing specialist for Desert Snow, a leading interdiction training firm based in Guthrie, Okla., whose founders also created Black Asphalt.
Hain's book calls for "turning our police forces into present-day Robin Hoods."
Cash seizures can be made under state or federal civil law. One of the primary ways police departments are able to seize money and share in the proceeds at the federal level is through a long-standing Justice Department civil asset forfeiture program known as Equitable Sharing. Asset forfeiture is an extraordinarily powerful law enforcement tool that allows the government to take cash and property without pressing criminal charges and then requires the owners to prove their possessions were legally acquired.
The practice has been controversial since its inception at the height of the drug war more than three decades ago, and its abuses have been the subject of journalistic exposés and congressional hearings. But unexplored until now is the role of the federal government and the private police trainers in encouraging officers to target cash on the nation's highways since 9/11. "Those laws were meant to take a guy out for selling $1 million in cocaine or who was trying to launder large amounts of money," said Mark Overton, the police chief in Bal Harbour, Fla., who once oversaw a federal drug task force in South Florida. "It was never meant for a street cop to take a few thousand dollars from a driver by the side of the road."
To examine the scope of asset forfeiture since the terror attacks, The Post analyzed a database of hundreds of thousands of seizure records at the Justice Department, reviewed hundreds of federal court cases, obtained internal records from training firms and interviewed scores of police officers, prosecutors and motorists.
When the police turn bad, you know that human society is truly crumbling to dust right before your eyes.

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bearish divergences continue to warn investors of a tsunami coming in stocks.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

New Meaning For B2B: Brain-To-Brain

B2B Means Brain-To-Brain Communication now as researchers have demonstrated over a 5000-mile hookup. The research, published in PLOS ONE (open access):
Human sensory and motor systems provide the natural means for the exchange of information between individuals, and, hence, the basis for human civilization. The recent development of brain-computer interfaces (BCI) has provided an important element for the creation of brain-to-brain communication systems, and precise brain stimulation techniques are now available for the realization of non-invasive computer-brain interfaces (CBI). These technologies, BCI and CBI, can be combined to realize the vision of non-invasive, computer-mediated brain-to-brain (B2B) communication between subjects (hyperinteraction). Here we demonstrate the conscious transmission of information between human brains through the intact scalp and without intervention of motor or peripheral sensory systems. Pseudo-random binary streams encoding words were transmitted between the minds of emitter and receiver subjects separated by great distances, representing the realization of the first human brain-to-brain interface. In a series of experiments, we established internet-mediated B2B communication by combining a BCI based on voluntary motor imagery-controlled electroencephalographic (EEG) changes with a CBI inducing the conscious perception of phosphenes (light flashes) through neuronavigated, robotized transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), with special care taken to block sensory (tactile, visual or auditory) cues. Our results provide a critical proof-of-principle demonstration for the development of conscious B2B communication technologies. More fully developed, related implementations will open new research venues in cognitive, social and clinical neuroscience and the scientific study of consciousness. We envision that hyperinteraction technologies will eventually have a profound impact on the social structure of our civilization and raise important ethical issues.

Gasoline Consumption Declining

The government's EIA reports:
During the first quarter of 2013, gasoline consumption increased by only 6,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) over the same period during 2012. By the fourth quarter of 2013 the year-over-year increase in gasoline consumption had risen to an average 320,000 bbl/d.
This increase in consumption did not persist for long. During first-quarter 2014, consumption averaged 66,000 bbl/d higher than the same period in 2013. (The Federal Highway Administration reports a similar increase of 62,000 bbl/d for the first quarter of 2014.) During the second quarter of 2014, consumption began to show year-over-year declines in May and June, with an average increase for the period of 20,000 bbl/d. EIA expects continuing year-over-year declines during the second half of 2014, averaging 79,000 bbl/d.
The general outlook for motor gasoline is for declining consumption as average new vehicle fuel economy continues to improve. As new cars replace less-efficient older cars, the increase in the average fleet fuel economy is expected to outpace the growth in the driving age population and vehicle miles traveled and put continuing downward pressure on gasoline consumption.

Short-Term Energy Outlook

The US Energy Information Administration reports:
  • Driven in large part by falling crude oil prices, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices fell to an average of $3.49/per gallon (gal) in August, 12 cents below the July average and 21 cents below the average in June. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are projected to continue to decline to an average of $3.18/gal in December, 12 cents lower than projected in last month's STEO. EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.51/gal in 2013, to average $3.46/gal in 2014 and $3.41/gal in 2015, 4 cents lower and 6 cents lower than last month's STEO, respectively.
  • Weakening global demand and increased Libyan oil exports contributed to a drop in the North Sea Brent crude oil spot price to an average of $102 per barrel (bbl) in August, $5/bbl lower than the July average and $10/bbl below the average in June. For the first time in 14 months, average Brent spot prices fell outside the relatively narrow $5/bbl range between $107/bbl and $112/bbl. EIA projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $103/bbl in fourth-quarter 2014 and $103/bbl in 2015, $5/bbl and $2/bbl lower than forecast in last month's STEO, respectively. The WTI discount to Brent, which averaged $11/bbl in 2013, is expected to average $8/bbl in both 2014 and 2015.
  • Total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in August, the highest monthly production since July 1986. Total crude oil production, which averaged 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013, is expected to average 9.5 million bbl/d in 2015, 0.2 million bbl/d higher than projected in last month's STEO. If achieved, the 2015 forecast would be the highest annual average crude oil production since 1970. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.1 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic liquids production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 32% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 21% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1968.
  • Natural gas spot prices fell 15% from an average of $4.59/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in June to $3.91/MMBtu in August even as natural gas stock builds continued to outpace historical norms. Natural gas working inventories on August 29 totaled 2.71 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 0.47 Tcf (15%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.50 Tcf (15%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). Projected natural gas working inventories reach 3.48 Tcf at the end of October, 0.34 Tcf below the level at the same time last year. EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73 per MMBtu in 2013, will average $4.46/MMBtu in 2014 and $3.87/MMBtu in 2015.

Free Market: Eliminating Coal As A Fuel (Other Fossil Fuels Will Follow)

While we don't claim the market is free (just look at the Fed and you know just how unfree the market is), we do claim that market forces are hard at work at eliminating fossil fuels. Take coal for example:



Next, we'll see other fossil fuels on a similar bumpy, but downtrendy, decline to oblivion, replaced by renewables, especially solar.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bulls would call today's selloff "ugly," but was it really a sign of a top?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, September 08, 2014

Climate Change Deniers Are Actually Liberals At Heart

Those who deny climate charge are at heart liberals. They may proclaim themselves conservative, but they are working toward a society they would consciously reject: more government control and less freedom.

It turns out that climate deniers are actually afraid to face reality. Climate scientists tell us that if we don't do something soon, the deteriorating environment on Earth will force governments to restrict freedom to contribute to climate change. By denying the reality of climate change, the deniers are making it more and more likely that government will be taking those negative actions in the future.

Thus, we have the strange situation where the deniers are working to implement the opposite of what they profess to believe: a government which forces restrictions on individual liberty.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Tech indices still strong, but the fruit is ripening on the tree.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

A Drone's Eye View of Richard Branson's Caribbean Island (Video)

Richard Branson recently invested in Chris Anderson's 3D Robotics. Anderson writes in his blog:
Finally, I can talk about what I did this summer! Richard Branson, one of my heroes both as an entrepreneur and aviation pioneer, is a 3D Robotics investor. Not only is it thrilling to be part of his network, but we also got to bring a fleet of drones to his famed Caribbean island, Necker, to tell the story of his life there from an aerial view.

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Did you see the cover on Barron's? They've called a top.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. End of Trend-Time is coming soon to stocks.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Do humans as a group have an IQ higher than monkeys? Probably not.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1

Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1
See how trendlines show you lasting price levels of risk-defining support in this real-world example from this free eBook

By Elliott Wave International

If financial market speculation were easy, then everyone would be well off -- and the legendary investor Warren Buffett would be just a nice rich guy from Omaha with really cool glasses.

The reality is, successfully navigating the near- and long-term trends is exceptionally difficult. Gains can be big, but losses can often be even bigger.

Technical analysis offers you an all-you-can-watch buffet of indicators to help reduce your risk and optimize rewards. You may already be using moving averages or momentum indicators, for example -- and you know how helpful they can be at anticipating trend changes.

Well, let us introduce you to another excellent tool: trendlines.

For the past 15 years, Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has been using trendlines to identify high-probability trade set-ups in close to 20 markets he regularly follows.

You might be familiar with one of those markets, cocoa. In his May 2014 Monthly Commodity Junctures, Jeffrey showed subscribers how to apply trendlines to this volatile market:

So, the forecast was for cocoa to hold above the trendline -- and rally. The next chart shows you how cocoa prices did just that, soaring straight into Jeffrey's cited price target of 3200:

Jeffrey finds trendlines so valuable that he wrote a book about them! Well, an eBook: a 17-pager titled "Trading the Line: 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading."

Here's an excerpt:

Now here's a neat little trick. In Figure 2-9, we use trendlines a different way. By connecting the two lines, we distinguish the breakout point. Later, it provides support when prices revisit the same line (circled).

Or, we can count the highs and take it from an intervening low, as seen in this soybean weekly chart. The reversal that occurred in price at the lower boundary line is circled.

As the title of Jeffrey's eBook states, there are 5 ways trendlines improve your trading:

  1. Trendlines show you the dominant psychology of investors, be it bullish or bearish
  2. They define your support and resistance price levels
  3. They give you advanced warning of potential price breakout points
  4. They help you identify critical moments in time
  5. Trendlines also tell you when the trend has turned

Want to learn how to draw your own trendlines -- and gain an advantage you've never had before?

Right now, our friends over at Elliott Wave International have the entire 17-page eBook on their shelf of FREE trader resources. It's yours for the reading, right now -- at absolutely no cost.

Follow this link for your free instant download of Jeffrey Kennedy's 17-page eBook Trading the Line: 5 Ways You can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading (.pdf).


Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the perpetual motion machine in stocks grinding to a halt?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Is It Time To Sell Energy Stocks Short?

Coal accounts for 43% of the grid energy in the U.S. and, perhaps more importantly 81% in China and 68% in India. Even India though, where growth has long taken precedence over environmental concerns, is looking to reduce coal consumption and since 2008, has adopted a National Action Plan on Climate Change.

Obviously the world is looking to move away from coal as such concerns become more commonplace. At the same time alternative energy sources are becoming more readily available and economically viable, so the end of expansion for the coal industry at least is in sight. It would be reasonable, then to expect coal stocks to be cheap, but many are far from it; in fact some are just downright expensive.

Then, there are the oil companies. Their products are just as doomed. And, the market is valuing them on the value of their inventory in the ground. But, what if the human race suddenly came to its senses and realized that burning fossil fuels is a death sentence for the planet? What if legislatures passed laws prohibiting the oxidation of fossil fuels? The oil in the ground would then only be worth its usage outside of burning, such as for making plastics and fertilizer, for example.

Oil, gas and coal stockholders are definitely “cruisin' for a bruisin'” at some point.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Storage Costs To Hit $100 Per kWh

The cost of electrical storage is expected to plummet to $100 per kWh in the next few years. Currently, it costs between $200 and $250 per kWh according to industry experts.

Elon Musk recently stated that he'd be very disappointed if it took a decade to reach the $100 per kWh milestone.

Storage costs are essential to eliminate the so-called “intermittentcy problem” which tends to keep the mainstream from embracing solar energy. That problem is actually shared with conventional fossil-fuel generators. In fact, conventional fossil-fuel plants have unscheduled outages which last far longer than solar outages. But, the utilities pretend that this intermittency problem should limit the amount of renewables placed on the grid. It's only a plot by these investor-owned corporations to retain their profitability, though. With the addition of storage to solar arrays, the uptime from solar generators will come very, very close to 100% and far outstrip the service record of fossil fuel plants.

Thus, it's very important that storage costs continue dropping. We think $100 per kWh is just a minor milestone toward much lower costs. The additional storage will mean that solar-based microgrids will be feasible to keep the lights on with no intermittency at all.

If we're right, solar will become the predominant source of electricity in the next decade. And, the grid itself will likely fade to insignificance.

Obama Has No Middle East Strategy? Good!

By Ron Paul

Last week President Obama admitted that his administration has not worked out a strategy on how to deal with the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a dominant force in the Middle East. However, as ISIS continues its march through Syria and Iraq, many in the US administration believe it is, in the words of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a threat “beyond anything we have ever seen.”

Predictably, the neocons attacked the president’s speech. They believe the solution to any problem is more bombs and troops on the ground, so they cannot understand the president’s hesitation.

Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Buck McKeon made it clear that fighting ISIS is going to cost a lot more money and will bring US forces back to Iraq for the third time. The post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan peace dividend disintegrates.

Mr. McKeon said last week:
ISIS is an urgent threat and a minimalist approach, that depends solely on FY15 funding or pinprick strikes that leave fragile forces in Iraq and Syria to do the hard fighting, is insufficient to protect our interests and guarantee our safety in time.

What does this mean in practice? If the neocons have their way, the Federal Reserve will “print” more money to finance another massive US intervention in the Middle East. In reality this means further devaluation of the US dollar, which is a tax on all Americans that will hit the poorest hardest.

A new US military incursion will not end ISIS; it will provide them with the recruiting tool they most crave, while draining the US treasury. Just what Osama bin Laden wanted!

McKeon and the other hawks act as if they had only recently become aware of the ISIS. Or if they noticed it, they pretend US policy had nothing to do with its rise.

McKeon also said last week, “ISIS threat was allowed to build and fester over a period of time.”

In fact, US regime change policy in Syria was directly responsible for the rise of ISIS over these past three years. As journalist Eric Margolis observed recently, the emergence of ISIS is the “mother of all blowback.” The neocons who want us to get tougher on ISIS, including a US attack on Syria, are the same ones who not long ago demanded that we support groups like ISIS to overthrow the Assad government in Syria. US-trained and funded “moderates” from the Free Syrian Army joined the Islamist militias including ISIS, taking US weapons and training with them.

Three years of supporting any force that might overthrow the secular government of President Assad has produced a new monster in the Middle East that neocons insist the US must slay.

Why can’t they just admit they were wrong? Why can’t the interventionists just admit that their support for regime change in Syria was a terrible and tragic mistake?

If ISIS is as big a threat as they claim, why can’t they simply ask Assad to help out? Assad has never threatened the United States; ISIS has. Assad has been fighting ISIS and similar Islamist extremist groups for three years.

Why does the US government insist on aligning with theocracies in the Middle East? If there is anything that contradicts the US Constitution and American values it is a theocratic government. I do not believe that a majority in the Middle East wants to live under such a system, so why do we keep pushing it on them? Is that what they call promoting democracy?

A lack of strategy is a glimmer of hope. Perhaps the president will finally stop listening to the neocons and interventionists whose recommendations have gotten us into this mess in the first place! Here’s a strategy: just come home.

Copyright © 2014 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
Please donate to the Ron Paul Institute

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Labor Day on Monday will see cash markets closed all day, but futures will be closed only from 13:00-18:00 ET.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Friday, August 29, 2014

Bill Gates: Wrong On Fossil Fuels

Some people believe Bill Gates is a business genius. Well, if screwing your peer group is a talent, he certains deserves the title of evil genius.

Now, Gates is coming out in favor of tradtional, centralized fossil fuel energy plants as oppposed to renewable energy. This is demonstrating either just how stupid Gates is, or that he's shilling for Big Oil now.

Don't take our word for it. Read Powering the World’s Poorer Economies: A Response to Bill Gates and Jigar Shah. The bottom line:

Can renewables meet industrial as well as household needs? India uses 25 percent of its scarce electrons providing occasional, middle-of-the-night irrigation power --- a purpose for which solar pumps are phenomenally reliable. Solar pumps work when farmers want them to --- during the day. In Chile, solar electrons easily outperform imported LNG for meeting the power needs of copper mines. In the conditions where the poor live, renewable power is more reliable and robust than fossil fuels.
It is striking that in Big Carbon's response to Jigar Shah in a Forbes blog post, the industry was forced to predict fossil fuel's continued global dominance by citing growth trends over the last thirty years. Unsurprisingly, it failed to reveal the cresting competitive edge for distributed renewables. That's akin to looking back 40 years and suggesting that today's dominance of mobile phones is a delusion.
Distributed renewables are about a decade behind telephony, but the arc of the two technologies is the same. The new world will come to small villages in Tanzania before it comes to Chicago --- just as the cell-phone revolution reached Bangkok before it dominated New York.
Bjorn Lomborg may not want to believe Jigar Shah --- or me --- on this. But he ought to base his projections and assumptions on current numbers, not outdated ones.
So, who is right? Well, in the nation with the world's largest energy-deprived population, India, a new, very pro-business and quite conservative prime minister, Narendra Modi, has cast his best with distributed solar. He is promising to give every energy-deprived Indian household solar power within the next five years.
Let's get on with the job.

Austin Ups Solar Goal By 800 Megawatts

Stephen Lacey reports on Austin's new law:
The city of Austin may have just single-handedly propelled the Texas solar market into the top-ten leading states.
Last night, the Austin city council voted in favor of a resolution that would increase the city's rooftop and utility-scale solar targets by 800 megawatts over the coming years.
It creates a plan that would build a small paradise for distributed energy companies, including a utility-scale solar target of 600 megawatts by 2017, a rooftop solar target of 200 megawatts by 2020, explicit language enabling third-party solar ownership, a floor price for the value-of-solar tariff, and a mandatory strategy to procure 200 megawatts of fast-response storage.
The plan builds upon earlier climate goals created and revised since 2010. After Austin Energy signed a power-purchase agreement for 150 megawatts of solar at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour in May, city officials asked if they should require more solar that could provide a hedge against natural gas prices.
A task force convened by the city council took a look at the potential savings offered by solar PV and decided to sharply increase goals. The resolution was written by councilman Chris Riley and championed by energy experts and environmental groups alike.
"The 2014 Task Force found that solar energy represents a cost-competitive means of securing clean peak power hedging against the volatility of fuel-dependent thermal resources, and recommended that solar energy generation should be the new default generation resource through 2024."
Chad Blevins, a financial analyst with The Butler Firm, a law office devoted to renewable energy transactions, watched the proceedings closely. He said there were a lot more serious businesspeople involved in the goal-setting process this time around compared to previous targets. "In the past, the people involved used environmental arguments to justify renewable goals. This time around, the case for renewables was based on economics — operational cost data from the utility, robust dynamic models projecting market prices and the very low PPA rates that we have seen from PV in response to recent RFPs," said Blevins.
That didn't mean that Austin Energy was fully on board. Although the municipal utility is seen as progressive in its support of renewables, executives were not enthusiastic about such a big increase in solar --- mostly because they were worried about managing it all on the grid. That's partly why the requirement for fast-response storage was added.
Advocates of the plan said it would save Austin ratepayers money and keep electricity prices in the range of the 50 percent lowest among Texas utilities.
The consumer advocacy group Public Citizen put together a cost analysis showing that ratepayers could save millions of dollars a year compared to building a new natural gas plant, assuming solar contracts are signed for $50 per megawatt-hour.
Cory Honeyman, a solar analyst with GTM Research, said the new goals will put Texas in the top-ten overall rankings and the top-five utility-scale solar rankings in the coming years.
"This plan cements Texas as an emerging leader in the near future," said Honeyman.
The plan is also representative of a broader shift for utility-scale solar around the country. According to Honeyman, there are now 3 gigawatts of large-scale projects in the pipeline in states like Georgia, North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, and soon, Mississippi.
The surge in solar projects in states without the help of renewable portfolio standards is due to three reasons: price competition with natural gas, the need to fill in closing coal plants, and hedging against natural-gas price volatility.
"All three of the main reasons we see for justifying this goal in Austin is what we're seeing in other states, as well," said Honeyman.

Hawai'i Leads The Way In Renewable Energy

No, not California, but Hawai'i, is leading the way to minimizing fossil fuel burning in favor of renewables. Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) on Tuesday announced their intention to triple the amount of rooftop solar in the state, just one part of a plan that the companies say will make Hawai'i the highest renewable energy-using state in the country. Climate Progress reports:
Hawaiian Electric, Maui Electric and Hawaii Electric Light — known together as HECO — proposed a package of initiatives that they said would help Hawaii generate 65 percent of its electricity from renewable energy and slash electric bills by 20 percent, all within the next 16 years. While admittedly vague on how the initiatives will be implemented and how they will impact prices, the package includes efforts to increase energy storage, develop smart grids, and support community solar projects. "Our energy environment is changing rapidly and we must change with it to meet our customers' evolving needs," Shelee Kimura, HECO’s vice president of corporate planning and business development said in a statement. "These plans are about delivering services that our customers value. That means lower costs, better protection of our environment, and more options to lower their energy costs, including rooftop solar."
Much of HECO’s plans include efforts to ensure the electric grid is stable in the face of more solar being installed. The utility said it would work closely with the solar industry to figure out just how much solar can be built and added to the grid every year without destabilizing it. It also said it would plan technological enhancements to the grid, as well.
If Hawaii can indeed begin getting more of its electricity from sources generated in-state, it is likely the state's electricity costs will decrease. Part of the reason electricity costs are currently so high there is because it is dependent on imported petroleum for 70 percent of its electricity generation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hawaii altogether imported 93 percent of its energy in 2012. At the same time, utility-scale solar generation in 2013 increased nearly six-fold.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Was that the 2014 version of the Flash Crash this morning? Sure looks like it.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Do we have to wait for the 1% to return from their summer holidays to see a trend?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Congressional Budget Office: US GDP Will Grow Only 1.5% in 2014

The slowing US economy will only be able to grow at less than half its historic rate this year as the CBO reports today:
The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by just 1.5 percent in 2014, undermined by a poor performance during the first three months of the year.
The new assessment was considerably more pessimistic than the Obama administration's, which predicted last month that the economy would expand by 2.6 percent this year even though it contracted by an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
The economy did grow by 0.9 percent during the first half of 2014.
Looking ahead, the CBO said it expected the economy to grow by 3.4 percent over 2015 and 2016, and predicted that the unemployment rate would remain below 6 percent into the future.
The economy went into reverse at the beginning of this year, reeling from an unusually harsh winter that disrupted consumer spending, factory production and other business activity.
Growth in the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services, recovered in the second quarter, advancing at an annual rate of 4 percent, according to the government's first estimate. That forecast will be revised on Thursday.

Debunking the Myth That Deleveraging Is Why US Growth Is Poor

Andrew Smithers has debunked the myth that deleveraging is to blame for slow US growth on his blog today. The reason why growth is slow is that the US economy is stuck in a long term decline in growth that predates the last recession. Smithers concludes:
First, the US recovery has been slow because its long-term capacity for growth has slowed, and the recovery cannot therefore be sensibly described as feeble.
Second, the evidence is against the growth of debt in the US being associated with growth of the economy.
And third, growth has not been held back by a wish to deleverage private sector balance sheets.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Finding the Cause and the Cure For Autism (Video)

Too many synapses appear to cause autism. A cure may be upcoming:

Monday, August 25, 2014

Hurricane Sandy: Is a Successor Storm Setting Up? (Video)

The pattern looks similar, but we will know more in the next week as to whether another Hurricane Sandy is setting up. Levi Cowan describes the pattern similarity he sees with Sandy in today's Tropical Tidbits video:

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Where is support in the stock market? It's at a prior wave E low.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wall Street Brokerage Warns It's "Time To Join the Revolution"

Leading investment bank UBS says the payback time for unsubsidized investment in electric vehicles paired with rooftop solar and battery storage will be as low as six to eight years by 2020, potentially triggering a massive shift in the energy industry.
"It's time to join the revolution," UBS wrote in a note to clients, in what could be interpreted as a pointed rejoinder to those governments and corporates that believe centralized fossil-fuel generation will continue to dominate for decades to come.
By 2030, according to UBS analysts, this combination will deliver a payback time of around three years. Right now, the payback is probably around twelve years, enough to encourage the interest of early adopters. (You can read more here on why EVs will make solar viable without subsidies.)

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Ferguson: The War Comes Home

By Ron Paul

America’s attention recently turned away from the violence in Iraq and Gaza toward the violence in Ferguson, Missouri, following the shooting of Michael Brown. While all the facts surrounding the shooting have yet to come to light, the shock of seeing police using tear gas (a substance banned in warfare), and other military-style weapons against American citizens including journalists exercising their First Amendment rights, has started a much-needed debate on police militarization.

The increasing use of military equipment by local police is a symptom of growing authoritarianism, not the cause. The cause is policies that encourage police to see Americans as enemies to subjugate, rather than as citizens to "protect and serve.” This attitude is on display not only in Ferguson, but in the police lockdown following the Boston Marathon bombing and in the Americans killed and injured in “no-knock” raids conducted by militarized SWAT teams.

One particularly tragic victim of police militarization and the war on drugs is “baby Bounkham.” This infant was severely burned and put in a coma by a flash-burn grenade thrown into his crib by a SWAT team member who burst into the infant’s room looking for methamphetamine.

As shocking as the case of baby Bounkham is, no one should be surprised that empowering police to stop consensual (though perhaps harmful and immoral) activities has led to a growth of authoritarian attitudes and behaviors among government officials and politicians. Those wondering why the local police increasingly look and act like an occupying military force should consider that the drug war was the justification for the Defense Department’s “1033 program,” which last year gave local police departments almost $450 million worth of “surplus” military equipment. This included armored vehicles and grenades like those that were used to maim baby Bounkham.

Today, the war on drugs has been eclipsed by the war on terror as an all-purpose excuse for expanding the police state. We are all familiar with how the federal government increased police power after September 11 via the PATRIOT Act, TSA, and other Homeland Security programs. Not as widely known is how the war on terror has been used to justify the increased militarization of local police departments to the detriment of our liberty. Since 2002, the Department of Homeland Security has provided over $35 billion in grants to local governments for the purchase of tactical gear, military-style armor, and mine-resistant vehicles.

The threat of terrorism is used to justify these grants. However, the small towns that receive tanks and other military weapons do not just put them into storage until a real terrorist threat emerges. Instead, the military equipment is used for routine law enforcement.

Politicians love this program because it allows them to brag to their local media about how they are keeping their constituents safe. Of course, the military-industrial complex’s new kid brother, the law enforcement-industrial complex, wields tremendous influence on Capitol Hill. Even many so-called progressives support police militarization to curry favor with police unions.

Reversing the dangerous trend of the militarization of local police can start with ending all federal involvement in local law enforcement. Fortunately, all that requires is for Congress to begin following the Constitution, which forbids the federal government from controlling or funding local law enforcement. There is also no justification for federal drug laws or for using the threat of terrorism as an excuse to treat all people as potential criminals. However, Congress will not restore constitutional government on its own; the American people must demand that Congress stop facilitating the growth of an authoritarian police state that threatens their liberty.

Originally published on Ron Paul's site The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit is given.

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. What do the Dow and the SmallCap Index have in common? The same outlook!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Friday, August 22, 2014

The Grid Is A Dead End

The power grid has failed. Or, at least it has failed for the vast majority of the human population.

India is the best example of this. The country has suffered massive grid failure and it's not an isolated instance. It's a function of the centralized grid to fail with certainty of 1.

The answer people are looking for is the distributed grid, connecting microgrids down to the individual prosumer level. Each microgrid provides power to a small geographical area and feeds its excess to the grid. If the grid has a failure, people don't have to go without energy due to the fact that the microgrid is backed by storage.

Sorry, Bill Gates, But You're Wrong on This Issue notes how wrong Bill Gates is on this issue:

The World Bank's Lighting Africa program clocked a 95 percent CAGR (compound annual growth rate) for solar products being sold beyond the grid in sub Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, the wildly successful IDCOL solar program has installed 3 million solar home systems at a whopping 60% CAGR over the past decade. After much deliberation, even the dispassionate new Prime Minister of India decided against grid extension in favor of using distributed energy to meet his 2019 goal of electrifying every family.
In the meantime, grid extension has proceeded at incredibly marginal rates. Worse, 2.5 billion people who are connected to the grid receive power that is so unreliable that they are considered under-electrified' by current grid extension efforts. The cheap reliable grid is a fallacy that is no longer cheap, nor reliable.
When it comes to energy poverty, Gates is arguing for outdated and ineffective solutions that will keep people energy poor.
It is time that we deploy our 21st century energy solutions and put power directly in the hands of the poor.

Thursday, August 21, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It's definitely a trap for investors, who will give back substantial profits soon.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Coffee Could Be Extinct in 70 Years (Video)

Say it ain't so! But, coffee could be a victim of Global Warming.

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The strongest bearish divergence in stocks we've seen today, in chart form.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

How Global Warming Is Distorting the Jet Stream (Video)

Now that we've been experiencing much more radical changes in our weather since 1980, just how is Global Warming causing these changes? Rutgers' Jennifer Francis explains how the jet stream slows down and increases in amplitude due to the accelerated warming in the Arctic in this video:

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. See the chart that proves that the rats are deserting the sinking ship!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, August 18, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Countertrend rally continues in stocks, giving investors more chances to sell.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have both been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, August 16, 2014

Power To The People

Why are the Germans so good at energy? Well, the reason is pretty obvious: they give power to the people, not corporations.

Instead of letting large utilities decide on building power plants and forcing the people to accept whatever the utilities decide they need—usually whatever creates the most revenue for the utilities themselves—the German way is to let individuals and communities decide. And, that means that Citizens own half of German renewable energy.

We could learn a lot from Germany.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Wall Street is a dry tinderbox, awaiting a stray match to set it on fire.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Did options levitate stocks this week? Yes, indeed, they did.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Poor breadth does not a sustainable rally make!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Could Hemp Outdo Graphene in Supercapacitors?

Is marijuana the next big energy thing? New research into supercapacitors is yielding a surprise finding: hemp can produce an electrode similar to, and perhaps superior to, graphene. Could hemp nanosheets topple graphene for making the ideal supercapacitor? suggests so:
The race toward the ideal supercapacitor has largely focused on graphene—a strong, light material made of atom-thick layers of carbon, which when stacked, can be made into electrodes. Scientists are investigating how they can take advantage of graphene's unique properties to build better solar cells, water filtration systems, touch-screen technology, as well as batteries and supercapacitors. The problem is it's expensive.
Mitlin's group decided to see if they could make graphene-like carbons from hemp bast fibers. The fibers come from the inner bark of the plant and often are discarded from Canada's fast-growing industries that use hemp for clothing, construction materials and other products. The U.S. could soon become another supplier of bast. It now allows limited cultivation of hemp, which unlike its close cousin, does not induce highs.
Scientists had long suspected there was more value to the hemp bast—it was just a matter of finding the right way to process the material. "We've pretty much figured out the secret sauce of it," says Mitlin, who's now with Clarkson University in New York. "The trick is to really understand the structure of a starter material and to tune how it's processed to give you what would rightfully be called amazing properties."
His team found that if they heated the fibers for 24 hours at a little over 350 degrees Fahrenheit, and then blasted the resulting material with more intense heat, it would exfoliate into carbon nanosheets.
Mitlin's team built their supercapacitors using the hemp-derived carbons as electrodes and an ionic liquid as the electrolyte. Fully assembled, the devices performed far better than commercial supercapacitors in both energy density and the range of temperatures over which they can work. The hemp-based devices yielded energy densities as high as 12 Watt-hours per kilogram, two to three times higher than commercial counterparts. They also operate over an impressive temperature range, from freezing to more than 200 degrees Fahrenheit. "We're past the proof-of-principle stage for the fully functional supercapacitor," he says. "Now we're gearing up for small-scale manufacturing."
And that's what leading scientists are smoking these days!

Colliding Atmospheres: Mars vs Comet Siding Spring (Video)

EIA Projects Fossil Fuel Prices

Price Summary
  2012 2013 2014 2015
a West Texas Intermediate.
b Average regular pump price.
c On-highway retail.
d U.S. Residential average.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
94.12 97.91 100.45 96.08
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
111.65 108.64 108.11 105.00
Gasolineb
(dollars per gallon)
3.63 3.51 3.50 3.46
Dieselc
(dollars per gallon)
3.97 3.92 3.89 3.87
Heating Oild
(dollars per gallon)
3.79 3.78 3.83 3.74
Natural Gasd
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
10.69 10.31 11.06 11.35
Electricityd
(cents per kilowatthour)
11.88 12.12 12.46 12.69

Source: Short Term Energy Outlook

Monday, August 11, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Countertrend rally ongoing in stocks, but where will it end?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Are we in a waterfall decline in stocks?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, August 09, 2014

Waterfall Decline in Stock Market Due

Tom McClellan has produced an eye-opening report on how the second year of a President's second term produces a waterfall decline from July to September. We are in that decline right now. Investors should have sold all stocks by now, but it's not too late. In fact, according to the pattern, a brief bounce in the market should give investors one last chance to get out of equities:
The steep drop which began from the July 24 top is happening pretty much on schedule. A brief pause in the decline is due over the next few days, and then a resumption of the decline should appear. The ideal bottom equates to around Sep. 10, although the bottom to go up out of does not appear until a month later.

Forward To the Good Old Days

Our current societal discontent will be seen by historians of the future as the Bad Old Days which preceded the Good Old Days. That's because we are living in an era of unsustainable crimes against nature. We stick straws in the ground and suck fossil fuels out of it. That's when we're not leveling mountains to extract coal. We burn those fossil fuels and expect that we can continue to do so forever on a finite planet. Maybe historians will call these days the Stupid Old Days. Humans are incredibly stupid.

What else can you say when we despoil our nest so badly? We have the technology to eliminate all burning of fossil fuels, but the rich and powerful are fighting tooth and nail to protect their “property.” Who gave them the right to decide whether their fellow humans would die of pollution? Or, in the long run, die of Climate Change? These are the people who will find themselves on the business end of the pitchforks that the people will use to exact justice.

But, this is an optimistic article. The future holds great promise of eliminating fossil fuels used in powering our society. Those fossil fuels, probably better called fossil resources since we won't be burning them, have great uses outside of energy. The reason we will eliminate fossil fuels is not because the politicians will suddenly wake up and realize the burning of fossil fuels is a suicide strategy. No, the politicians won't have anything to do with it. The reason we will stop burning fossil fuels is simply that it won't pay to do so. Alternative energy is available cheaply today and will only get cheaper because the energy is available for free. We simply need to develop the pot to catch all the free energy that's available to us.

Of course, we're talking about the free energy from that fusion reactor that's located 93 million miles away from us in the sun. As much energy as we need in one year falls on the Earth from the sun every hour. All we have to do is to create a pot to catch it. And, we know how to do that already. If we need more free energy, we simply will send more satellites into space to capture the energy that isn't going to land on Earth in the first place. The sun puts out enough energy in one hour to meet human needs for several millenia. And, it will continue to do so for billions of years. Enough time for humanity to destroy itself, of course. At least on Earth. Maybe not on Mars if Elon Musk has his way.

But, historians of the future will definitely see humanity emerging from these Bad Old Days into the sunlight of the coming Good Old Days as long as we delay our inevitable demise due to stupidity.

Friday, August 08, 2014

This Changes Everything: Capitalism Vs. Climate

This Changes Everything: Capitalism Vs. the Climate by Naomi Klein forcefully makes the case that:
Our economic model is at war with life on Earth.
We can’t change the laws of nature, but we can change our broken economy.
And that’s why climate change isn’t just a disaster. It’s also our best chance to demand—and build—a better world.
Change or be changed. But make no mistake… this changes everything.

The publisher says:

Forget everything you think you know about global warming. The really inconvenient truth is that it's not about carbon—it's about capitalism. The convenient truth is that we can seize this existential crisis to transform our failed economic system and build something radically better.
In her most provocative book yet, Naomi Klein, author of the global bestsellers The Shock Doctrine and No Logo, tackles the most profound threat humanity has ever faced: the war our economic model is waging against life on earth.

Non von Neumann Computer Chip Mimics Biological Brain

IBM has introduced a silicon chip which mimics a biological brain. Although it contains only 4096 synaptic cores, it emulates a brain containing one million programmable “neurons,” 256 million programmable “synapses,” and 46 billion “synaptic operations” per second per watt — simulating the function of neurons and synapses in the brain.* Kurzweil Accelerating Intelligence reports:
This radical new cognitive chip architecture is also a departure from the classical von Neumann architecture — the basis of almost every computer today — which inherently creates a bottleneck limiting performance of the system.
Instead, the new "TrueNorth" chip architecture features an digital on-chip, two-dimensional mesh network of 4096 digital, distributed neurosynaptic cores.
Each core module integrates memory, computation, and communication, and operates in an event-driven, parallel, and fault-tolerant fashion.
IBM says it is planning to integrate its neurosynaptic processing into mobile devices to overcome limitations constrained by power, volume and speed.
Eventually, by 2030, chips which exceed the capacity of a human brain are expected to power the coming singularity described by Ray Kurzweil in his book The Singularity Is Near.

Coming Soon From the UK: Skylon Spaceplane Operations (Video)

Which States Will Legalize Marijuana This Decade? (Video)

Thursday, August 07, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. When will the next round of QE be announced? We think it won't be long.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Solar's Rapid Growth

Solar power worldwide is now growing faster than cellphones. This video debunks the myth that a reliable electricity supply from mostly or wholly renewable resources will need giant "baseload" power stations or a breakthrough in cheap electrical storage.

But, cheap electrical storage is coming anyway.

US GDP Growth Rate Trend: 0.7-1.0%

Most economists hope the US growth rate, historically about 3.2%, will soon return to that level. Unfortunately, it appears the trend growth rate for the USA is stuck between 0.7% and 1.0% per annum. Andrew Smithers examines the issue and finds that we are indeed on a slow growth path:
The likelihood that the underlying growth rate of the US economy has declined is shown in the data on investment and capital productivity as well as in the declines in labour supply and productivity.
Investment has fallen as a percentage of GDP. It is currently lower in total than it has been in any year since 1947 and equipment investment is similarly depressed (chart five). The rate of growth of the economy is thus likely to have declined unless investment has become more efficient.
But the efficiency of new capital investment has fallen rather than risen. This is measured by the incremental capital/output ratio ("ICOR"), which is derived by dividing the ratio of investment to GDP by its growth rate. As growth is volatile from year to year, it is usual to calculate ICORs over longer periods and in chart six I do this by measuring investment and growth over the previous 10 years. The more capital it takes to increase GDP, the less efficient it is and, as chart six shows, it has recently taken about twice as much capital for a given rise in GDP as it has on average in the past.
As both capital investment and its efficiency have fallen, a continuation of current trends points to a marked fall in the trend rate of growth of the US economy. However, provided there is no further deterioration in capital efficiency and the level of investment is unchanged, the implied trend growth rate of the US economy is rather better than that suggested by the labour data. The trend growth rate derived by dividing the current total level of investment of 19.1 per cent of GDP by the ICOR derived from the past 10 years, which is 13, indicates a trend growth rate of 1.5 per cent per annum.
Well, there's the good news. We might find GDP growth trending higher at 1.5% per annum. Far less than Wall Street economists are perenially predicting!

"The Economist" Magazine Was Hacked

You may recall that we lambasted The Economist for printing an article full of lies about how solar was inferior to other forms of energy. Now, it appears that the magazine was hacked. Amory B. Lovins explains:
That full-page article highlights a May working paper by Charles R. Frank, Jr. (economics Ph.D. 1963), a nonresident fellow at the nonpartisan and notably debate-friendly Brookings Institution. His background is in international development and finance. I daresay most experts on the economics of energy technologies and climate change had never heard of him—but they have now. As soon as The Economist featured his paper, their inboxes and Twitter feeds lit up with incredulity: could his conclusions possibly be true?
They're not (and yes, I've written The Economist a letter saying so). My detailed critique at RMI.org explains why, and cites two other reviews and a podcast. But for anyone who knows the subject, Dr. Frank's con­clu­sions don't even pass the giggle test. He finds that new wind and solar power are the least, and new nuclear power and combined-cycle gas generation are the most, cost-effective ways to displace coal-fired power—just the opposite of what you'd expect from observing market prices and choices.
How does Dr. Frank reach his contrarian conclusions? By using, apparently unwittingly, obsolete data and incorrect methods. He assumes wind and solar power half as productive and twice as costly as they actually are, gas power twice as pro­duc­­­tive as it actually is (but with no methane leakage or price volatility), and new nuclear power at half its actual total cost and con­struction time and one-fifth its actual operating cost. He also posits a need for new U.S. generating capacity and bulk electricity storage, but no efficiency oppor­tuni­ties worth mentioning. His strange method of assessing reliability suggests little under­standing of how power grids integrate, and their operators analyze, renew­ables.
So are Dr. Frank's odd findings artifacts of errors in his methodology, his data, or both? Both, but there are so many mistakes that just nine data points can carry the whole load. My colleague Titiaan Palazzi reconstructed Dr. Frank's spread­­sheets, reproduced his results, then simply updated the nine most egregiously outdated figures to those in the latest official historical statistics (not forward-looking projections) from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Nuclear Energy Institute, and similarly authoritative sources.
Presto! The conclusions flipped. Instead of gas combined-cycle and nuclear plants' offering the greatest net benefit from displacing coal plants, followed by hydro, wind, and last of all solar, the ranks reversed. The new, correct, story: first hydro (on his purely economic assumptions), then wind, solar, gas, and last of all nuclear—still omitting efficiency, which beats them all.
Beneath Dr. Frank's wrong answer, however, lurks a useful question. He adopts the distinguished economist Prof. Paul Joskow's 2011 valid thesis that the way power-sector investments are chosen—lowest long-run eco­nomic cost—is incomplete, because different technologies generate power at different times, creat­ing different amounts of value. Of course value as well as cost should be con­sidered. But interestingly, this case suggests that if we use correct and up-to-date cost and per­for­mance data, the cost- and value-based calculations yield the same priorities, whether judged from the perspective of financial investment or climate-protection effectiveness. That is, adjusting for different resources' time of genera­tion, though theoretically nice, doesn't change the result; cost-benefit analysis gives the same answer as a simple cost comparison. The resulting best-buys-first sequence would also gain even more value if other hidden costs, risks, and benefits were counted too.
Making a splash—intentional or not—with a flawed analysis that doesn't survive more careful scrutiny is nothing new. My esteemed Stanford colleague Dr. Jon G. Koomey cowrote a 2002 Annual Review of Energy and the Environment paper (here) called "Sorry, Wrong Number: The Use and Misuse of Numerical Facts in Analysis and Media Reporting of Energy Issues." Its abstract says: "Students of public policy sometimes envision an idealized policy process where competent data collection and incisive analysis on both sides of a debate lead to reasoned judgments and sound decisions. Unfortu­nate­ly, numbers that prove decisive in policy debates are not always carefully developed, credibly documented, or correct. This paper presents four widely cited examples of numbers in the energy field that are either misleading or wrong. It explores the origin of those numbers, how they missed the mark, and how they have been misused by both analysts and the media. In addition, it describes and uses a three-stage analytic process for evaluating such statistics that involves defining terms and boundaries, assessing underlying data, and critically analyzing arguments." It's a bracing read, with a nice summary and update.
The diligent Dr. Frank has collected not just one wrong number but a flotilla, together driving a false conclusion that gained a prominent platform in The Econo­mist. The ana­lytic lesson: rapidly changing data quickly pass their sell-by date.
It's too early to guess whether prompt refutations will prevent the distres­sing phenomenon Dr. Koomey describes, whereby media and advocates fond of a false thesis (or who don't know any better) keep repeating it long after it's been de­cis­ive­ly debunked. Time will tell. But your ability to stay well-informed and to exer­cise your critical faculties can help build sound public discourse. If you hear a claim that sounds nutty, maybe it is. If it is, say so. As biologist Prof. E.O. Wilson wrote, "Some­times a concept is baffling not because it is profound but because it's wrong."