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 Add Market Clues Blog to My Yahoo!Links: MyClues Home Page Thermopower, a breakthrough alternative energy, carbon-free and completely clean RSS Feed Market Clues Subscription Information Page Time & Cycles TFNN - Tom O'Brien T Theory - Terry Laundry Elliott Wave International's Market Report My Yahoo! Google News "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." "I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt." --Thomas Jefferson
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
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Sunday, November 22, 2009
"It's the Dollar, Stupid!"
The markets have gotten very, very simple in the last couple of years. If you can figure out where the dollar is going, you know where every other market is going---the opposite direction. Thus, the bottom the dollar has been building out is bearish for the rest of the markets because now "it's the dollar, stupid".
The banks know it. They are hoarding their dollars because they know the financial crisis isn't over by a long shot. Sure, the government has been levitating the economy by printing money. We just finished the worst recession since the Great Depression on the backs of all those dollars that are floating GDP growth. The stock market has soared on government buying. Essentially, the politicians are doing exactly what they always do when faced with a big crisis. That's called "kicking the can down the road". It has "worked" for decades, but not really. All it has done is to pass a bigger problem onto succeeding waves of puppet politicians. Passing the buck forward in time became very popular decades ago. The problem with passing the buck is that, eventually, the end game means that it can't be passed on. The debt level is the ultimate limit to the process of "kicking the can down the road".
Normally, the public would be ebullient after a 60% gain in stock prices, but this time is different. Maybe that's because they have either been laid off and had to take any job they could get, or some of their friends are in the same position. Maybe some of them haven't been able to find any job and are living on the dole.
It's an economy of the haves, those either on the dole or benefitting from stimulus payments, and the have-nots, those who aren't in the "loop" of suckling at the government teats. The politicians are talking about the deficit, which of course is what they always bring up after they've blown the till on boondoggle government payouts to their campaign contributors, never before. The problem is that it really is different this time and the public can see right through their flimsy protestations. The public realizes that a monstrous theft has taken, and is taking, place on the government. And, they're the butt of the joke the Power Elites have played on the little guys.
The ultimate denouement isn't going to be pretty. Bankers and politicians should see it coming---the scarcity of ammunition should be a red flag to the puppets. The "Too Big to Jail" bankers are still playing their outrageous "We're Doing God's Work" charade while the little people are told that if they can't have cake, "let them eat bread".
When you take the long term view, it's easy to see that our civilization, barely beyond our prehistoric customs, is struggling to emerge from its primitive tendencies. We have a legacy of the caveman which has shaped our institutions and manners. That it will collapse is inevitable, for only by collapsing will it be possible to rebuild our civilization on a firmer foundation for the centuries ahead.
The Banking System Is Insolvent
The Fed has put its finger in the dike and is holding the flood back with its reflationary efforts, but how long can they stop the flood? Not for long if home prices continue to decline. Most banks are technically insolvent because most of their capital is backed by underwater mortgages. If everyone with an underwater mortgage simply stopped making payments, the entire banking system would totally collapse within a year. And that may be optimistic.
Think the US Government is backing up all those bank deposits? Think again. The FDIC has been drained dry. Will the Congress bailout bank depositors? Yes, they will try, but can they do it after spending several trillion dollars bailing out the largest banksters on Wall Street? The system is setup like AIG: write "insurance" with so little capital backing the claims that, ultimately, there is nothing backing those deposits. There's a big question about the safety of US bank depositors.
Municipal and state bonds are being held up by the US Government as well. How long can they continue to float the entire financial system? Chances are that most municipal and state bonds will end up in default (a fate that US government bonds will eventually fall into as well). Most states are underwater as well, being held up by "stimulus payments" by the corrupt government in Washington.
Banks have been reducing the credit quality of their loan portfolios for several decades. Shunning business loans in favor of consumer loans, the banks have worked their way out on a long limb---one that has cracked and will soon fall to the ground. This has reflected the process of dismantling the manufacturing sector in the American economy under the tutelage of MBAs whose idea of how to run a business was inculcated by academics who have no idea of how a sustainable economy really works. It is estimated that manufacturing today represents only about 1 part in 100 in the overall economy, with services the 800-kilogram gorilla in the room. Virtually all goods sold in the US today are either manufactured in foreign countries or assembled from parts manufactured outside the US. This means that innovation cannot happen in the US and the US will continue sinking into Third World status.
The vaunted military machine of the US depends almost entirely on parts manufactured by other countries, despite laws on the books which are designed to prohibit the Defense Department from depending upon foreign sources for parts---those laws are simply flaunted by defense contractors. Far from being invincible, the US is extremely vulnerable militarily simply because it requires these imported parts to build and maintain its arsenal. If a foreign power were able to interdict the flow of parts from overseas into the US, it would strangle the American military machine and lead, ultimately, to capitulation by the US to that foreign power.
The whole run of dominoes is falling and it's only a matter of time before the entire financial system cracks up, causing the USA to collapse into the rubbish heap of history.
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138. Secular bear markets bottom with the SPX PE Ratio at 10.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 19 Nov 2009 To 20 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 19 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +29.80% | -0.14% | -14.28 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +30.02% | -0.39% | -39.87 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +64.27% | -0.14% | -14.40 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -52.61% | +0.10% | +10.23 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +35.51% | -0.34% | -35.20 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +35.82% | -0.36% | -36.69 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +75.22% | -0.62% | -64.49 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.52% | +0.49% | +50.64 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +40.06% | -0.47% | -48.15 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +40.66% | -0.38% | -39.52 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +33.92% | -0.10% | -10.69 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +61.72% | -0.04% | -3.85 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.34% | +0.05% | +4.90 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.37% | +0.10% | +10.02 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +34.83% | -0.17% | -17.82 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +35.22% | -0.12% | -12.33 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +63.48% | -0.24% | -24.81 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.10% | +0.21% | +21.22 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +55.23% | -0.50% | -51.28 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +55.36% | -0.50% | -52.06 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +125.60% | -0.87% | -89.85 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -66.14% | +1.09% | +112.42 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +41.54% | -0.56% | -57.54 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +42.18% | -0.53% | -55.24 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +84.26% | -0.95% | -98.07 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -63.83% | +0.97% | +100.60 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +20.92% | +0.19% | +20.13 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +64.59% | -0.88% | -90.47 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +64.57% | -0.55% | -56.62 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +33.63% | +0.57% | +58.88 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +65.81% | +0.99% | +102.55 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -51.89% | -0.93% | -96.36 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +72.95% | +1.48% | +152.41 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -49.19% | -1.64% | -169.26 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +70.04% | +0.89% | +91.66 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +130.14% | -0.39% | -40.21 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -76.48% | +0.24% | +25.26 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +54.83% | -0.38% | -39.40 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +128.97% | -1.01% | -104.60 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -73.45% | +0.90% | +93.24 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +65.97% | -0.54% | -55.50 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -16.77% | -0.02% | -2.17 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -6.01% | -0.01% | -1.13 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +2.05% | +0.04% | +3.93 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +5.84% | -0.47% | -48.53 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.47% | +0.02% | +2.46 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| PROSHARES ULTRA 3000 (UWC) | · | +0.14% | +14.83 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (TWQ) | · | -0.30% | -30.82 |
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -2.93% | +0.10% | +10.08 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +13.66% | +0.22% | +22.59 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -40.24% | +0.43% | +44.92 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -29.48% | +0.11% | +11.69 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -32.82% | +0.33% | +34.60 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -37.13% | +0.51% | +52.93 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.34% | +0.05% | +4.90 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -35.83% | +0.15% | +15.21 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -66.14% | +1.09% | +112.42 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -52.61% | +0.10% | +10.23 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.52% | +0.49% | +50.64 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -63.83% | +0.97% | +100.60 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.37% | +0.10% | +10.02 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.10% | +0.21% | +21.22 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -59.08% | +0.79% | +81.33 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -58.74% | +0.19% | +19.20 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -69.06% | +0.81% | +83.55 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -66.23% | +0.99% | +101.81 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -63.60% | +0.06% | +6.67 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -69.55% | +0.39% | +40.29 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -79.57% | +0.45% | +46.08 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -46.87% | +0.28% | +28.63 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -58.56% | +0.87% | +90.00 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -87.61% | +1.10% | +114.15 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -40.02% | -1.81% | -186.88 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -61.27% | +0.90% | +92.87 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -53.51% | +1.96% | +202.76 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -87.51% | +0.79% | +81.82 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -73.45% | +0.90% | +93.24 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -70.60% | +1.31% | +135.57 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -47.13% | -0.29% | -29.81 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -55.14% | -0.02% | -2.58 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -40.39% | +0.56% | +57.89 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -67.31% | +1.25% | +128.83 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -82.51% | +0.86% | +88.61 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -34.44% | -1.67% | -172.15 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -84.23% | +0.39% | +39.79 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +125.60% | -0.87% | -89.85 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +64.27% | -0.14% | -14.40 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +75.22% | -0.62% | -64.49 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +84.26% | -0.95% | -98.07 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +61.72% | -0.04% | -3.85 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +63.48% | -0.24% | -24.81 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +64.03% | -0.67% | -69.31 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +89.54% | -0.60% | -61.70 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +77.20% | -0.75% | -77.89 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +100.43% | -0.35% | -36.41 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +50.89% | -0.26% | -26.49 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +75.08% | -0.74% | -76.62 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +160.96% | -0.54% | -56.21 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +58.10% | +0.62% | +64.37 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +81.53% | -0.57% | -58.45 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +106.23% | -1.05% | -108.95 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +41.33% | +0.95% | +97.75 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +66.52% | -0.87% | -89.55 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +40.00% | -1.89% | -195.06 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +49.75% | -1.16% | -119.95 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +128.97% | -1.01% | -104.60 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +150.99% | -1.26% | -130.21 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +7.88% | +1.02% | +104.96 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +98.38% | -0.20% | -21.03 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE SHRT ETN (BOM) | -72.18% | -0.30% | -31.29 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +185.99% | +2.26% | +234.02 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -63.80% | +1.43% | +147.65 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +47.06% | -0.37% | -38.13 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +36.50% | -0.76% | -78.78 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -45.19% | -0.30% | -31.17 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +5.64% | -0.23% | -24.12 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SOFTS TR SUB-IDX ET (JJS) | +27.60% | -1.32% | -136.07 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +64.77% | +0.28% | +29.15 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +69.12% | +0.77% | +79.39 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +4.50% | -0.31% | -31.66 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +12.01% | -0.60% | -62.47 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +8.84% | -0.25% | -26.16 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +6.67% | -1.23% | -126.62 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +26.29% | +1.47% | +152.23 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +31.07% | +1.50% | +155.38 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +47.57% | -0.61% | -63.41 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +35.60% | -0.82% | -84.95 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | +3.22% | -1.17% | -121.06 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +107.70% | +0.98% | +101.49 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +97.41% | +0.49% | +50.53 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +49.02% | -1.88% | -194.49 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -28.67% | +0.75% | +77.60 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -6.72% | -0.20% | -20.94 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.12% | +0.40% | +41.61 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +14.36% | -0.46% | -47.16 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | -1.00% | -103.82 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING DWN (DMM) | · | -0.19% | -19.55 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | -0.02% | -1.99 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | -7.90% | -816.75 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | -10.06% | -1039.21 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | -10.68% | -1103.62 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +87.98% | -12.44% | -1285.30 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -75.91% | +0.86% | +88.88 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +93.89% | -15.19% | -1569.26 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -62.79% | +1.61% | +166.60 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +57.91% | -11.82% | -1221.78 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -81.46% | +0.49% | +50.44 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +28.10% | -12.21% | -1261.19 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -72.91% | +1.71% | +176.62 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +96.67% | -1.50% | -154.64 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.73% | +1.78% | +184.13 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +208.90% | -16.07% | -1660.84 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -85.94% | +1.73% | +178.32 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +116.76% | -15.35% | -1585.80 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -83.11% | +1.58% | +163.49 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +277.30% | -15.23% | -1573.34 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.02% | +0.72% | +74.33 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | -0.89% | -91.71 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | +0.77% | +79.54 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Weighing the Dollar Alternatives
Today, a guest article about the alternative to the US Dollar, by Bryan Rich:
 |
The dollar has suffered a landslide of scrutiny and negative sentiment over the past eight months. Yet just nine months ago it was the currency that every investor and central banker in the world wanted to own! The world economy was on the ropes, and the dollar represented safety.
Since then, fear has gradually abated, optimism has returned and this dollar, safe-haven trade has been reversing.
Within this recent retracement of the U.S. currency there has been endless speculation about the future role of the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Moreover, there has even been conjecture that the dollar will no longer exist at some point in the near future.
But the case made for the vulnerability of the dollar falls short when it comes to naming alternatives ...
Sure, if you believe inflation will be a problem at some point in the future, the purchasing power of the dollar will fall. But against what? Against other major currencies? I don't think so.
If the Fed and other central banks around the world fail to remove the emergency stimulus before those measures translate into inflation, then ALL currencies will fall in value relative to hard, tangible assets like gold, real estate and other commodities ... even financial assets like stocks and bonds. That's global inflation.
 |
| The U.S. economic problems are pale in comparison to those of Japan's. |
Is that possible? Certainly is. And that's why the demand for gold, as a hard currency, has been rising. But I'm not arguing about inflation or deflation here today; rather I want to take a look at three of the often-suggested dollar alternatives.
Dollar Alternative #1—
The Japanese yen ...
Japan has one of the highest debt loads in the world, approaching nearly 200 percent of GDP. That's more than twice what is projected in the U.S. And Japan‘s economy has suffered the sharpest contraction of any major economy in 2009 and is expected, again, to underperform the U.S. economy in 2010.
If you don't like the dollar for its fundamental economic challenges, you surely can't like the yen.
 |
| The Brits are flooding their economy with billions of pounds. |
Dollar Alternative #2—
The British pound ...
The UK economy is the most troubled and most volatile major, developed market economy. The money-printing program in the UK has been the most aggressive in the world. In fact, The Bank of England is still expanding its money printing program, as other major economies are winding down.
And while the UK central bank continues injecting billions of pounds into zombie banks, the economy continues contracting. At the same time, other major economies have technically emerged from recession.
This makes the British pound perhaps the least desirable currency for global investors.
Dollar Alternative #3—
The euro ...
First, let's look at the two major drivers of currency values: Economic growth and interest rates ...
The Eurozone is expected to underperform the U.S. in 2009 and 2010. And the interest rate outlook for the Eurozone, as projected this week by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is for rates to move from 1 percent to 2 percent by 2011.
But that's lower, both on an absolute and on a rate-of-change basis, when compared to the United States. In the U.S., the OECD expects rates to normalize to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent by 2011.
So the Eurozone has weaker growth and lower interest rate prospects than the U.S. So the euro falls short of the dollar on both comparisons. Indeed, in terms of purchasing power parity, the dollar should be 26 percent stronger against the euro based on fundamentals.
Clearly the dollar wins over the euro ... the second most widely-held global currency ... from the facts I've laid out above.
The U.S. is ground zero of the financial crisis and is the largest economy in the world, so it's understandable why the world's focus has shifted here during the worst economy since the Great Depression. And that tunnel vision can play a big role in global sentiment toward the U.S. dollar, too.
The U.S. economy has a burgeoning budget deficit, nearly 10 percent of GDP. And the debt load in the U.S. has risen from 65 percent of GDP before the crisis, to a projected 100 percent of GDP by 2011.
These are major issues for the administration to tackle. And these burdens threaten economic growth and recovery for the U.S., as well as the rest of the world, because of the world's heavy reliance on the American consumer.
But in the Eurozone, things aren't so rosy either ...
The common currency in Europe is only in its tenth year of existence. And just eight months ago, there was speculation of a potential breakup of the euro. Italy and Ireland were said to be threatening to withdraw from the euro.
Since the crisis began, the EU's Growth and Stability Pact, which sets the maximum budget deficit for euro member countries, hasn't just been disregarded ... it's been completely blown-out of the water!
Only seven of the sixteen countries are operating within the maximum limit, and some countries are running budget shortfalls three and four times bigger than the ceiling set forth.
These are major problems, both structurally and politically. But even with the stimulative spending programs, many of the weaker EU countries are still deep in recession.
 |
| Weaker euro members are stuck — they can't devalue their currency. |
Plus there's one key issue that threatens the viability of the common currency: These countries would typically turn to currency devaluations to help stem the bleeding in their economies by increasing exports. But remember, as members of the euro, they can't.
Even worse, they're dealing with a currency that's gained 20 percent over the last eight months against the currencies of two of their main trading partners: The U.S. and China.
To add to the challenges of the uneven economic performances within the Eurozone, the banking system in Europe is expected to see more write-downs of bad debt than that of U.S. banks.
So for those who think the euro is positioned to become the new primary world reserve currency — it's not likely.
A better bet, in my opinion, is that the problems in the euro area will fall under the microscope again. And the viability of the euro will, again, be brought into question.
In this era of globalization, economies around the world have proven to be highly correlated and highly interdependent. So while the global economy is piecing together a tepid recovery, when looking for viable dollar alternatives among other major liquid currencies ... there simply aren't any.
This investment news is brought to you by Money and Markets. Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter from Martin D. Weiss and Weiss Research analysts offering the latest investing news and financial insights for the stock market, including tips and advice on investing in gold, energy and oil. Dr. Weiss is a leader in the fields of investing, interest rates, financial safety and economic forecasting. To view archives or subscribe, visit http://www.moneyandmarkets.com.
Friday, November 20, 2009
The FDIC Anesthesia Is Wearing Off
The following article is an excerpt from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist. For more information from Robert Prechter on bank safety, download his free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks.
Perhaps the single greatest reason for the unbridled expansion of credit over the past 50 years is the existence of the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, another government-sponsored enterprise created by Congress. The coming rush of
bank failures is an outcome made inevitable the very day that Congress created the FDIC. The reason is that the creation
of the FDIC allowed savers to believe that their deposits at banks are “insured” against loss.
But the FDIC is not really an insurance company. No enterprise, absent fraud, could possibly insure all
the banking deposits in a nation. Nor does the FDIC do so, despite its claims. The FDIC is like AIG, the company that sold
too many credit-default swaps. It contracted for more insurance than it could pay upon. Because depositors believe the
sticker on the door of the bank, they have abdicated their responsibility to make sure that their banks’ officers
handle their deposits prudently. This abdication allowed banks to lend with impunity for decades until they became saturated
with unpayable debts.
Today, most banks are insolvent, and the FDIC is broke. This condition is deflationary for three reasons: (1) Banks are coming to realize that the FDIC cannot bail them out in a systemic crisis, so they have become highly conservative in their lending policies, as described above. (2) The main way that the FDIC gets its money is to dun marginally healthy banks for more “premiums” (meaning transfer payments) to bail out their disastrously run competitors. The more money the FDIC sucks out of marginally healthy banks, the less money those banks have on hand to lend, which is deflationary. (3) The banks that have to cough up all this money will become more impoverished at the margin, so banks that otherwise might have survived a credit crunch will be thrown even closer to the brink of failure. This is another deflationary risk.
A friend of mine whose family owns a bank told me that the FDIC recently raised its 6-month assessment from
$17,000 to $600,000. In the FDIC’s latest announcement, it is considering requiring banks to pre-pay three years’ worth
of “premiums,” i.e. triple the normal annual fee in a single year. It will be a miracle if the money lasts through
2010. When these funds are gone, the FDIC will have two more options: to issue its own bonds and pressure banks to buy them;
and to tap its “credit line” of up to half a trillion dollars with the U.S. Treasury. It’s the same old
solution: take on more new debt to back up failing old debt. More debt will not cure the debt crisis.
Meanwhile, the FDIC is contributing to the deflationary trend. It has “tightened rules on required capital levels,” which
forces banks’ loan ratios to fall; and it has “extended its extra monitoring of new banks from the first three years
of operation to seven years” (AJC, 11/19), meaning that banks will now have to wait four additional years before they can
go crazy with loans.
For more information from Robert Prechter on bank safety, download his free report, Discover
the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks. You'll learn how to find a safe bank, the critical difference between lending and banking,
tips on international banking, and more.
If Stocks Tank, Shouldn't Gold Soar?
Today, we have a guest article by Jeff Reckseit:
The following article is provided courtesy of Elliott Wave International (EWI). For more insights that challenge conventional financial wisdom, download EWI’s free 118-page Independent Investor eBook.
Large banks and more recently pension funds have suddenly become infatuated with gold. They chant the mantras that gold bugs have known for years: gold is a store of value; owning gold is financial insurance; an ounce of gold will always buy a good suit. The idea is that if the economy continues to weaken and share prices decline, a strategic allocation of the precious metal will hedge and offset some of the losses in the financial sector.
On the surface it seems to make sense and it’s hard to argue with the logic. Even so, logic can sometimes get twisted, whereas facts cannot. The evidence is found in the chart we describe as “All the Same Market.” Gold, stocks, currencies (versus the dollar), oil, grains, meats, softs, all decline in a deflationary environment. As liquidity dries up and credit contracts, people, businesses, and institutions sell everything to get dollars. Cash is once again king. This is bearish for gold.
Looked at another way: as the dollar advances from its lows, things denominated in dollars lose value against the dollar. As long as the dollar remains the global senior currency, assets will depreciate: not just stocks and commodities but residential and commercial property, works of art, collectible cars, pretty much everything. Of course, this outlook presumes a deflationary environment and that’s been our view for quite some time. But that’s another conversation. The topic here is stocks down/gold up - or not.
The long-time editor of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast Short Term Update, Steven Hochberg summed it up succinctly in a recent issue:
“The other important aspect to a dollar bottom is the implication to all the other markets that have been moving opposite to this senior currency. The start of a major dollar rally should roughly coincide with a turn down in stocks, commodities, oil and the precious metals. So there are likely to be important trend reversals across nearly all major markets.”
Don’t fall into the trap of group-think. If investing was that easy we’d all have (insert your own private fantasy).
-------------
For more information, download Robert Prechter’s free Independent Investor eBook. The 118-page resource teaches investors to think independently by challenging conventional financial market assumptions.
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138. Keeping stocks at this level of overvaluation requires intense effort from Wall Street. Some days, it doesn't work at all, such as today.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 18 Nov 2009 To 19 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 18 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +29.98% | -0.90% | -93.87 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +30.53% | -0.86% | -89.75 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +64.50% | -1.67% | -173.85 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -52.66% | +1.71% | +178.56 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +35.98% | -1.34% | -139.98 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +36.30% | -1.30% | -135.87 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +76.32% | -2.64% | -275.46 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.72% | +2.74% | +285.81 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +40.72% | -1.51% | -157.36 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +41.20% | -1.51% | -157.12 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +34.06% | -2.44% | -254.48 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +61.78% | -5.16% | -537.89 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.38% | +2.43% | +253.00 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.41% | +5.13% | +535.14 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +35.06% | -2.41% | -251.39 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +35.38% | -2.49% | -259.96 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +63.87% | -4.98% | -519.33 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.18% | +5.30% | +552.31 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +56.01% | -1.58% | -165.21 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +56.15% | -1.56% | -162.21 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +127.58% | -3.22% | -336.03 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -66.51% | +3.17% | +330.75 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +42.33% | -2.05% | -214.17 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +42.95% | -2.05% | -213.99 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +86.02% | -4.14% | -432.12 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -64.18% | +4.36% | +454.66 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +20.69% | -0.58% | -60.57 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +66.05% | +0.54% | +56.48 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +65.48% | +0.22% | +22.49 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +32.87% | +0.04% | +4.64 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +64.18% | -0.02% | -2.11 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -51.43% | -0.21% | -21.56 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +70.44% | +1.24% | +128.85 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -48.35% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +68.55% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +131.04% | +0.07% | +7.52 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -76.53% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +55.43% | -3.78% | -393.95 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +131.31% | -7.27% | -757.68 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -73.69% | +7.38% | +769.82 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +66.87% | -1.75% | -182.75 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -16.75% | +0.18% | +18.66 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -6.00% | +0.12% | +12.50 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +2.01% | +0.10% | +10.92 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +6.34% | +0.12% | +12.75 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.50% | +0.04% | +3.72 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -3.03% | -0.14% | -14.22 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +13.41% | -0.63% | -65.69 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -40.50% | +1.52% | +158.78 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -29.56% | +0.82% | +85.22 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -33.04% | +1.32% | +137.55 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -37.45% | +2.16% | +225.08 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.38% | +2.43% | +253.00 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -35.93% | +2.48% | +258.36 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -66.51% | +3.17% | +330.75 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -52.66% | +1.71% | +178.56 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.72% | +2.74% | +285.81 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -64.18% | +4.36% | +454.66 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.41% | +5.13% | +535.14 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.18% | +5.30% | +552.31 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -59.39% | +3.06% | +318.63 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -58.82% | +2.34% | +243.53 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -69.31% | +3.63% | +378.61 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -66.56% | +3.48% | +362.94 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -63.62% | +5.16% | +537.58 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -69.67% | +4.91% | +511.84 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -79.66% | +3.46% | +360.77 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -47.01% | +1.62% | +168.84 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -58.92% | +1.54% | +160.73 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -87.75% | +3.47% | +361.96 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -38.91% | +2.53% | +263.39 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -61.61% | +2.94% | +306.16 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -54.40% | +4.43% | +461.49 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -87.60% | +4.62% | +481.21 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -73.69% | +7.38% | +769.82 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -70.98% | +3.33% | +346.97 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -46.97% | +2.54% | +264.40 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -55.12% | +2.27% | +236.60 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -40.72% | +1.82% | +189.24 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -67.71% | +3.67% | +382.29 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -82.66% | +3.55% | +370.38 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -33.33% | +4.81% | +501.66 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -84.29% | +4.28% | +446.64 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +127.58% | -3.22% | -336.03 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +64.50% | -1.67% | -173.85 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +76.32% | -2.64% | -275.46 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +86.02% | -4.14% | -432.12 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +61.78% | -5.16% | -537.89 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +63.87% | -4.98% | -519.33 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +65.14% | -3.16% | -329.63 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +90.68% | -1.97% | -205.31 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +78.54% | -3.92% | -408.70 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +101.13% | -4.09% | -426.36 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +51.28% | -4.97% | -518.27 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +76.39% | -4.63% | -482.97 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +162.38% | -3.37% | -351.41 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +57.12% | -2.72% | -283.34 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +82.56% | -1.33% | -139.02 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +108.42% | -3.56% | -371.11 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +40.01% | -0.89% | -93.31 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +67.97% | -3.04% | -316.77 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +42.69% | -4.53% | -472.63 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +51.51% | -4.44% | -462.66 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +131.31% | -7.27% | -757.68 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +154.19% | -3.43% | -357.41 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +6.80% | -3.24% | -337.60 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +98.79% | -1.64% | -171.13 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE SHRT ETN (BOM) | -72.10% | +2.64% | +275.51 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +179.65% | -1.82% | -189.70 |
| PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS) | -44.91% | +1.51% | +157.77 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -64.31% | +5.28% | +550.69 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +47.60% | -2.02% | -211.09 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +37.55% | -2.49% | -259.69 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -45.02% | +0.91% | +95.22 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +5.89% | -1.72% | -179.42 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SOFTS TR SUB-IDX ET (JJS) | +29.31% | -0.84% | -87.84 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +64.31% | -1.07% | -111.54 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +67.83% | -0.80% | -83.44 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +4.82% | -0.53% | -55.61 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +12.69% | -0.36% | -37.22 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +9.12% | -0.13% | -13.18 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +8.00% | -1.73% | -180.49 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +24.46% | -1.21% | -126.11 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +29.13% | +0.45% | +46.66 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +48.48% | -2.43% | -252.93 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +36.72% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | +4.45% | +1.04% | +108.32 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +105.68% | -1.27% | -132.41 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +96.45% | -2.09% | -217.98 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +51.88% | -0.66% | -69.05 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -29.20% | +0.82% | +85.01 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -6.53% | -0.65% | -68.21 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.47% | +0.31% | +32.76 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +14.89% | -0.21% | -21.92 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | -1.93% | -201.02 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING DWN (DMM) | · | +3.61% | +376.02 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | -0.29% | -30.11 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | -0.40% | -41.21 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | +0.51% | +52.95 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | -1.26% | -131.76 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +114.68% | -4.20% | -437.49 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -76.12% | +4.20% | +438.08 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +128.61% | -5.44% | -566.74 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -63.38% | +5.46% | +569.60 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +79.09% | -7.49% | -780.41 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -81.55% | +7.52% | +784.48 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +45.91% | -6.43% | -670.39 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -73.36% | +6.75% | +703.97 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +99.66% | -5.43% | -565.72 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.77% | +5.08% | +529.96 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +268.06% | -5.13% | -535.35 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -86.18% | +5.14% | +536.03 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +156.06% | -6.04% | -629.82 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -83.37% | +5.83% | +607.56 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +345.07% | -5.81% | -605.68 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.06% | +5.90% | +615.65 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | -3.93% | -409.55 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | +3.95% | +411.60 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Let The Perps Pay For The Recession
Who blew up the economy and sent millions into the unemployment lines? The answer to that question is as obvious as the nose on your face: the private banks are responsible.
Let's make the perpetrators of this recession pay for it.
It's a very simple concept. They caused the recession, so let's make them pay for it. You break it, you pay for it.
Let's assess the banks a special "Recovery Tax" until the recession is paid for. That includes the huge increase in the federal debt, all of the bailout money that's not going to be repaid, all of the unemployment compensation which had to be paid out, all of the lost income tax the government didn't collect, and all of the profits corporations and small business failed to earn due to the downturn. It shouldn't be too hard to tote up the costs. Then, assess the banking system a special tax until all that money is repaid.
In fact, the Fed already calculates how much the recession has cost. It knows how much trend growth we should be seeing. The gap between where the economy is and that trend growth amount is simply the effect of the recession. Take that amount and collect it from the banks as a Recovery Tax until the entire gap has been closed.
Allow banks which loan money to businesses and individuals, rather than locking the money up in Treasury bills, notes and bonds, collectively called "government paper", to be taken as a credit against the Recovery Tax. That would create an incentive to lend money for productive uses to grow the economy and create new jobs. Those banks who simply buy government paper and sit on it rather than putting it to productive use should see their tax bill doubled for every dollar they put into government paper. In other words, if those banks want to suckle at the public teat, let them pay up for the privilege. "Good banks" would then avoid paying the tax, while "Bad Banks" would end up footing most of the bill.
If the Congress and the Obama Administration can't take this simple step toward rebuilding our economy, it will prove exactly one thing:
After the Congress and the current Puppet President refuse to demand that the perps pay for the damage they have caused, we should elect a President and Congress who go after the banks and demand that they pay up for the economic train wreck they caused. If the banks try to refuse, the government should seize their assets, take them over and sell those assets which are marketable, folding the remaining assets into a "Bank of the United States" which is owned by the public and operated in the public interest.
It's time we collected damages from the perps.
The Fed's Airheaded Bubble Strategy
Steven Pearlstein summarizes the reasons why the Fed's airhead bubble strategy is going to blow up the financial system. Some excerpts:
Despite the junk-bond and real estate bubbles of the late 1980s, the tech bubble and Asian financial crises of the 1990s and the credit bubble of recent years, the Fed stubbornly clings to an outmoded way of thinking and talking about the economy and monetary policy. Fed officials tend to give little weight to such "extraneous" factors such as asset prices, currency movements and capital flow, at least in public, and fear that focusing on them will cause them to lose sight of their core inflation-fighting mission. Moreover, like his predecessor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke still believes central bankers aren't smart enough to tell when a bubble has developed -- and even if they could, it would probably cause more harm than good to try to do something about it.
Janet Yellen, the president of the San Francisco Fed, is one of a small number of Fed policymakers who have begun to question the Fed's bubble orthodoxy, but even she declined to stray this week from the official line that the economy and the banks remain so weak that it is premature to even think about raising rates. That might make some sense if all this credit was flowing to worthy households and businesses. The evidence, however, suggests that much of it is going toward short-term financial speculation that is great for boosting bank profits and fattening the bonuses of Wall Street wise guys -- but lousy at producing sustainable long-term growth.
If there is one lesson to be drawn from the recent crisis, surely that is it.
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 17 Nov 2009 To 18 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 17 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +31.16% | -0.11% | -11.11 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +31.66% | -0.04% | -3.99 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +67.29% | -0.16% | -16.66 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.45% | +0.13% | +14.04 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +37.83% | -0.05% | -4.89 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +38.10% | -0.06% | -6.56 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +81.10% | -0.05% | -5.51 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.85% | +0.08% | +8.77 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +42.88% | -0.10% | -10.60 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +43.36% | -0.11% | -11.00 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +37.41% | -0.37% | -39.02 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +70.58% | -0.49% | -51.38 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -35.93% | +0.34% | +35.58 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.29% | +0.62% | +64.25 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +38.40% | -0.36% | -37.95 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +38.84% | -0.20% | -20.78 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +72.46% | -0.27% | -27.71 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.03% | +0.18% | +18.84 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +58.52% | -0.58% | -60.30 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +58.62% | -0.56% | -58.51 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +135.16% | -1.03% | -107.28 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.54% | +1.04% | +108.08 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +45.31% | -0.49% | -50.91 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +45.94% | -0.41% | -42.67 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +94.07% | -0.93% | -96.69 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -65.67% | +0.85% | +89.13 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +21.39% | -0.19% | -20.17 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +65.15% | -1.22% | -126.93 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +65.12% | -1.05% | -109.38 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +32.81% | +0.25% | +26.10 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +64.22% | +0.61% | +63.80 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -51.33% | -0.51% | -53.69 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +68.36% | +1.01% | +105.87 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -48.35% | -0.81% | -84.79 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +68.55% | +0.48% | +50.09 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +130.87% | +1.20% | +124.93 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -76.53% | -2.15% | -224.73 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +61.53% | -0.87% | -90.74 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +149.44% | -1.81% | -188.86 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.50% | +1.64% | +171.35 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +69.85% | +0.70% | +73.29 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -16.90% | -0.59% | -61.18 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -6.11% | -0.25% | -26.10 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +1.90% | -0.21% | -21.82 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +6.21% | -0.33% | -34.25 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.53% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -2.89% | +0.33% | +34.68 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +14.13% | +1.28% | +133.19 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -41.39% | +0.60% | +62.57 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -30.13% | +0.06% | +5.95 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -33.91% | +0.04% | +3.94 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -38.77% | +0.39% | +41.13 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -35.93% | +0.34% | +35.58 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -37.48% | +0.28% | +29.32 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.54% | +1.04% | +108.08 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.45% | +0.13% | +14.04 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.85% | +0.08% | +8.77 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -65.67% | +0.85% | +89.13 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.29% | +0.62% | +64.25 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.03% | +0.18% | +18.84 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -60.60% | -0.49% | -50.94 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -59.76% | +0.85% | +88.62 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -70.39% | +0.63% | +66.01 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -67.68% | +1.21% | +126.29 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -65.40% | -0.10% | -10.61 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -71.09% | +1.20% | +124.83 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -80.34% | +0.93% | +97.21 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -47.86% | -0.12% | -12.23 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -59.54% | +0.51% | +53.02 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -88.16% | -1.54% | -160.98 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -40.42% | -1.06% | -111.01 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -62.71% | +0.89% | +93.19 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -56.34% | +0.83% | +86.26 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -88.15% | -3.65% | -380.84 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.50% | +1.64% | +171.35 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -71.92% | +1.12% | +117.08 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -48.28% | +0.68% | +71.06 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -56.12% | +0.56% | +58.88 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -41.78% | +0.17% | +18.07 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -68.85% | +0.58% | +60.92 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -83.26% | +1.62% | +169.56 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -36.39% | +2.26% | +235.95 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -84.93% | +2.61% | +272.40 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +135.16% | -1.03% | -107.28 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +67.29% | -0.16% | -16.66 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +81.10% | -0.05% | -5.51 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +94.07% | -0.93% | -96.69 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +70.58% | -0.49% | -51.38 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +72.46% | -0.27% | -27.71 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +70.53% | +0.17% | +18.11 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +94.51% | -0.84% | -88.13 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +85.83% | -0.25% | -26.62 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +109.71% | -1.27% | -132.34 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +59.19% | +0.10% | +10.18 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +84.96% | -1.12% | -116.78 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +171.54% | -1.19% | -124.37 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +61.51% | +0.02% | +2.04 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +85.03% | -0.74% | -77.10 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +116.12% | +1.37% | +143.47 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +41.27% | +0.17% | +17.82 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +73.24% | -0.96% | -100.23 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +49.47% | -0.79% | -82.01 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +58.54% | +3.44% | +359.32 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +149.44% | -1.81% | -188.86 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +163.21% | -1.14% | -119.30 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +10.37% | -0.89% | -92.71 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +102.10% | -0.91% | -95.22 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE SHRT ETN (BOM) | -72.82% | +0.05% | +5.41 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +184.84% | -0.93% | -97.55 |
| PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS) | -45.73% | -0.04% | -4.38 |
| PS DB BASE METALS LONG ETN (BDG) | +66.92% | -0.50% | -52.64 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -66.10% | -1.05% | -109.10 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL SHORT ETN (SZO) | -37.50% | -0.58% | -60.33 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +50.65% | +0.66% | +68.37 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +41.06% | +0.64% | +66.38 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -45.52% | -3.03% | -315.82 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +7.75% | -1.06% | -110.57 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SOFTS TR SUB-IDX ET (JJS) | +30.40% | +0.70% | +73.05 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +66.09% | +1.42% | +147.70 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +69.18% | +0.73% | +76.13 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +5.38% | +0.04% | +3.98 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +13.10% | +0.34% | +35.05 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +9.25% | -0.38% | -39.44 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +9.90% | +1.09% | +113.82 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +25.98% | +2.98% | +310.68 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +28.55% | +1.30% | +136.05 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +52.17% | +0.14% | +14.44 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +36.72% | +0.86% | +90.16 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | +3.37% | -0.67% | -70.13 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +108.32% | +0.67% | +70.36 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +100.64% | +0.46% | +48.53 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +52.89% | +2.31% | +241.28 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -29.78% | -1.44% | -149.79 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -5.92% | +0.10% | +10.52 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.73% | -0.36% | -37.34 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +15.13% | +0.28% | +29.34 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | -0.04% | -4.47 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | -0.44% | -46.01 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | +0.88% | +91.56 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | -2.38% | -248.86 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | +2.32% | +242.62 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +124.08% | -0.34% | -35.77 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -77.08% | +0.11% | +11.71 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +141.75% | -1.27% | -132.27 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -65.28% | +1.06% | +110.67 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +93.58% | -0.57% | -59.75 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -82.84% | +0.35% | +36.65 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +55.94% | -1.48% | -154.42 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -75.05% | +1.39% | +144.83 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +111.11% | +2.00% | +208.85 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.88% | -1.99% | -207.98 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +287.98% | -1.57% | -163.77 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -86.86% | +1.43% | +149.41 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +172.52% | -0.78% | -81.89 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -84.29% | +0.74% | +77.47 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +372.52% | -2.32% | -242.31 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.39% | +2.14% | +223.37 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | -0.13% | -14.00 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | +0.05% | +5.57 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Fed's Yellen Declares Stocks Overvalued
Inflation Pressures Rising, But Fed Fails To React
Fed governors are talking about asset bubbles, but, in typical banker code, they are speaking in riddles. San Francisco Fed governor Janet Yellen said, "The stock market is not massively overvalued." When decoded, what she was saying is that the stock market is probably overvalued, but not massively. In other words, like Goldilocks, the porridge is hot, but not quite too hot. Stock prices are high enough to make investors feel wealthy enough to go out and spend money, but not so high that a crash is just around the corner. At least, that's what Yellen thinks.
The latest Producer Price Index figures indicates price pressures are building up in the pipeline. This index tends to warn of future inflation. Apparently, the Fed is quite happy to see inflation coming since their major worry has been deflation. They may be surprised when inflation returns because it's likely it will do so during the next recession, which is due to get started in 2010.
A Central Banker With Sense
No, not the one who heads the Fed. We're referring to European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet. He said Tuesday that several nations are in danger of losing their credibility:
"The success of the recovery in Europe depends on the confidence of investors in the creditworthiness of sovereign issuers."
The comment could easily apply to the US.
Trichet has said that very low interest rates are appropriate at the present time. The Euro has been in a downtrend versus the US Dollar since he made those comments.
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 16 Nov 2009 To 17 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 16 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +31.30% | +0.29% | +30.46 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +31.71% | +0.32% | +32.94 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +67.56% | +0.64% | +66.88 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.52% | -0.73% | -76.42 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +37.80% | +0.02% | +2.44 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +38.19% | +0.12% | +12.17 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +81.20% | +0.21% | +22.03 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.89% | -0.28% | -29.05 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +43.02% | -0.04% | -4.37 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +43.51% | -0.02% | -1.57 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +37.89% | -0.31% | -32.60 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +71.43% | -0.59% | -61.84 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -36.15% | -0.07% | -7.60 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.52% | +0.38% | +39.30 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +38.88% | -0.10% | -10.70 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +39.12% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +72.92% | -0.15% | -15.76 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.09% | +0.25% | +26.37 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +59.37% | +0.22% | +22.40 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +59.51% | +0.31% | +32.77 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +137.60% | +0.53% | +55.62 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.87% | -0.73% | -76.41 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +46.03% | -0.17% | -17.87 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +46.54% | -0.01% | -1.47 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +95.88% | -0.22% | -23.40 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -65.96% | +0.13% | +13.35 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +21.63% | +0.27% | +28.24 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +67.18% | +0.48% | +49.63 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +66.87% | +0.37% | +38.51 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +32.48% | +0.30% | +31.70 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +63.22% | +0.62% | +64.00 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -51.08% | -0.61% | -63.85 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +66.67% | +1.40% | +145.46 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -47.92% | -0.95% | -98.97 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +67.74% | +0.52% | +53.79 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +128.14% | +1.18% | +122.96 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -76.02% | -0.95% | -98.64 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +62.95% | +0.02% | +1.60 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +154.03% | +0.58% | +60.75 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.89% | -0.61% | -63.07 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +68.66% | +0.13% | +13.84 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -16.41% | +0.54% | +55.86 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -5.87% | +0.22% | +22.68 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +2.12% | +0.09% | +8.91 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +6.56% | +0.15% | +15.63 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.53% | +0.02% | +2.48 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| PROSHARES ULTRA 3000 (UWC) | · | -0.31% | -32.31 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (TWQ) | · | -0.12% | -12.11 |
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -3.22% | -0.39% | -40.53 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +12.70% | -0.94% | -97.54 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -41.74% | -0.29% | -29.95 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -30.17% | -0.32% | -33.54 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -33.94% | -0.11% | -11.76 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -39.01% | +0.11% | +11.40 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -36.15% | -0.07% | -7.60 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -37.65% | -0.06% | -6.74 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.87% | -0.73% | -76.41 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.52% | -0.73% | -76.42 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.89% | -0.28% | -29.05 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -65.96% | +0.13% | +13.35 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.52% | +0.38% | +39.30 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.09% | +0.25% | +26.37 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -60.41% | +0.28% | +29.39 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -60.09% | -0.41% | -42.58 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -70.57% | +0.89% | +92.23 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -68.07% | +0.43% | +44.63 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -65.37% | -0.47% | -49.14 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -71.43% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -80.53% | -2.28% | -236.79 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -47.80% | -0.30% | -31.62 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -59.75% | +0.69% | +71.86 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -87.97% | -0.08% | -8.67 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -39.78% | +0.32% | +33.31 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -63.04% | +0.04% | +4.23 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -56.69% | +0.08% | +8.61 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -87.70% | +2.81% | +292.81 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.89% | -0.61% | -63.07 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -72.23% | -1.23% | -128.11 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -48.63% | +0.56% | +57.89 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -56.37% | +0.44% | +45.56 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -41.88% | +0.84% | +87.22 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -69.04% | +1.05% | +108.81 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -83.52% | +0.45% | +47.18 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -37.79% | +1.70% | +176.93 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -85.32% | +0.28% | +28.67 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +137.60% | +0.53% | +55.62 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +67.56% | +0.64% | +66.88 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +81.20% | +0.21% | +22.03 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +95.88% | -0.22% | -23.40 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +71.43% | -0.59% | -61.84 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +72.92% | -0.15% | -15.76 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +70.24% | +0.17% | +18.09 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +96.17% | +0.37% | +38.59 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +86.30% | +0.17% | +17.72 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +112.40% | -0.60% | -62.13 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +59.04% | +0.49% | +51.01 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +87.05% | -0.14% | -14.53 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +174.81% | +2.12% | +220.80 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +61.48% | +0.33% | +34.71 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +86.40% | -1.19% | -123.44 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +113.19% | +0.34% | +35.89 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +41.03% | +0.32% | +33.43 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +74.92% | +0.03% | +3.33 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +50.65% | -0.30% | -30.92 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +53.27% | -2.40% | -249.77 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +154.03% | +0.58% | +60.75 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +166.26% | +1.30% | +135.29 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +11.36% | -0.43% | -44.54 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +103.96% | +0.08% | +8.26 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE SHRT ETN (BOM) | -72.83% | -2.13% | -221.76 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +187.52% | +1.15% | +119.46 |
| PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS) | -45.71% | -0.58% | -60.86 |
| PS DB BASE METALS LONG ETN (BDG) | +67.77% | +2.15% | +224.22 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -65.74% | -0.80% | -83.39 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL SHORT ETN (SZO) | -37.13% | -0.11% | -11.13 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +49.67% | +0.66% | +68.62 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +40.17% | +0.34% | +35.16 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -43.82% | -0.15% | -15.34 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +8.90% | +0.46% | +47.47 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +63.77% | +1.34% | +139.29 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +67.96% | +2.84% | +295.82 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +5.34% | +0.73% | +75.91 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +12.72% | +0.22% | +23.35 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +9.67% | +0.63% | +65.95 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +8.71% | -0.85% | -88.97 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +22.34% | -0.17% | -17.55 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +26.90% | -0.87% | -90.62 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +51.96% | -0.49% | -50.95 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +35.55% | +1.83% | +190.42 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | +4.07% | +1.39% | +144.33 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +106.93% | +0.21% | +21.82 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +99.71% | -0.21% | -21.65 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +49.43% | -0.48% | -49.54 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -28.75% | +1.40% | +145.38 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -6.01% | +0.20% | +21.01 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.43% | +0.63% | +65.57 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +14.80% | -0.59% | -61.79 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | -0.21% | -22.24 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | +0.37% | +38.03 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | -0.32% | -33.09 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | +1.41% | +147.00 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | -1.50% | -156.22 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +124.86% | +0.27% | +28.62 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -77.11% | -0.28% | -29.10 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +144.85% | -0.54% | -56.64 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -65.64% | +0.74% | +76.66 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +94.69% | -0.18% | -19.03 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -82.90% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +58.28% | -0.54% | -56.08 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -75.39% | +0.65% | +67.83 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +106.97% | +0.23% | +23.78 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.84% | -0.26% | -27.22 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +294.16% | +1.93% | +201.37 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -87.04% | -1.91% | -198.33 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +174.68% | -0.23% | -23.76 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -84.40% | +1.30% | +135.16 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +383.75% | -0.78% | -80.97 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.51% | +1.38% | +143.69 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | +0.36% | +37.82 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | -0.27% | -27.70 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Lying Fed Head Claims He Can't Identify an Asset Bubble
The head of the Federal Reserve, the central bank which is owned and operated by the banks, not the government (the "Federal" part is like "Federal Express"), claimed Monday he can't spot an asset bubble. Of course, asset bubbles are exactly why the country is in the mess it's in right now as we try to recover from the worst recession since the Great Depression. In order to get the economy growing, the Fed is pumping money into the banks, which are speculating on all kinds of commodities (Gold, et al) and the stock market, creating the largest asset bubble in history. And, the guy in charge can't spot a bubble? Clearly, this guy is lying through his teeth.
And, our brilliant Congress is poised to reconfirm this incompetent criminal to run the central bank for six more years. Ultimately, by blowing bubbles left and right and transferring our hard-earned taxes directly into the banks, the economy is going to implode. Every "recovery" of the last few decades has come with the Fed printing money which goes into unproductive uses in market speculation. And, each recession has been deeper and has been followed by longer and longer periods of jobless recovery. Shouldn't this send a message? The real economy is suffering simply because the financial machinations orchestrated by the Fed have been diverting investment from productive business into paper-shuffling for enormous profits. At the same time, the government has been encouraging American business to transfer millions of jobs to Asia. We have been sabotaged by our government and savaged by our bankers.
Let's look at the 1990 recession. George Bush was a one-term President because he presided over one of the longest recessions in history, one which did not start producing any new jobs until three years after the recession ended. The Fed printed lots of money, most of which ended up making bankers richer and the public poorer. When Clinton was elected ("It's the economy, stupid!"), he hiked tax rates during the recovery and ended up killing the economy going into the 2000 Election.
Let's look at the 2001 recession. George W. Bush survived to win re-election only because the Fed blew a real estate bubble which artificially inflated home prices and made taxpayers feel richer. Once again, the stage was set for absolute disaster as most loans are based upon the value of real estate. Even the big ratings agencies didn't see what was coming---their computer models didn't even allow for the possibility that real estate prices could go down. When they did, all hell broke loose and the Fed was forced to catch the falling knife of a failed financial system.
So there we have it. The financial system crashed and burned. Right now, it is only appearing to function. It's a zombie system, being kept on life support by the Fed and the government. At the same time, the victim is being raped by the bankers, who are extracting as much cash as they can from the comatose body before the public realizes that everything they own is worthless. The US Dollar, the underpinning for the entire worldwide financial system, is being plundered and the head of the private central bank in charge says he can't recognize an asset bubble?
Ben Bernanke is an abject liar and a thief. He should be incarcerated instead of continuing to head the largest gang of organized criminals on the planet.
Country Heading In The Wrong Direction, American Majority Thinks
Results from a recent University of Texas poll released today show a majority of American adults believes the country is on the wrong track. 51% of the respondents to the survey taken October 13th through the 22nd said the country is on the wrong track. 31% believe it's on the right track. 18% were totally confused and didn't understand where the country is heading.
Now that we're more than a year on from the Presidential Election, it's becoming clear to the majority that Obama is just another deceitful politician who promises what the people want to hear, then delivers their tax money to the fat cat bankers once he's in office. He's an equal-opportunity president: he'll do anything you want if you can meet his price.
Mark Twain defined a good politician as one who stays bought. A bad politician, on the other hand, is one who bites the hand that pays him. According that definition, Obama is a good politician.
Meredith Whitney Sees Next Leg Down Coming
Bankers, flush with ill-gotten cash stolen from Americans, are sitting pretty with trillions of dollars tucked away in their vaults. They're fat and happy now, but maybe they shouldn't be quite so confident they've emerged as winners in this Great Taxpayer Heist. With the economy recently coming out of a long recession, courtesy of massive money printing by the Fed and the transfer of trillions of dollars directly and indirectly to bankers (your children and grandchildren will continue to pay them as well), the signs of another recession are beginning to appear on the horizon. Just as the last recession took the majority of economists by surprise, this next recession will do exactly the same. There's no question it's coming.
One of the very few Wall Street analysts who saw the last crisis coming, Meredith Whitney, today said that the stock market is overvalued and due for another leg down. She sees the second leg down coming in 2010 and recommends no one buy stocks at these levels. She also points out that the housing market isn't finished bottoming and has another round of price declines directly ahead. The bankers don't see it coming, but will be blindsided just as they were in 2008.
Actually, bankers have already cut credit lines to consumers by $1½ Trillion and are just accelerating that process right now, according to Whitney.
Once the next recession begins, they'll say, "No one could have seen this coming---pay up or we'll crater the financial system." Um, sorry, too late, you already did that. "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The next time they try that stunt, they are going out of business as the government will take over the private banks in this country. And, we'll say, "Good riddance, you've been the biggest pain in the ass this country has ever had to deal with."
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 13 Nov 2009 To 16 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 13 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +30.92% | +1.33% | +136.49 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +31.29% | +1.31% | +134.73 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +66.49% | +2.64% | +270.98 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.17% | -2.60% | -267.11 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +37.76% | +1.43% | +147.07 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +38.03% | +1.45% | +148.97 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +80.81% | +2.89% | +296.40 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.77% | -2.90% | -297.90 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +43.08% | +1.65% | +169.08 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +43.53% | +1.61% | +164.92 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +38.32% | +2.82% | +289.45 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +72.45% | +5.57% | +572.27 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -36.10% | -2.61% | -267.71 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.66% | -5.58% | -572.62 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +39.01% | +2.81% | +289.03 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +39.12% | +2.64% | +271.06 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +73.18% | +5.35% | +548.96 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.18% | -5.54% | -568.83 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +58.99% | +1.02% | +104.61 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +59.01% | +1.02% | +105.02 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +136.34% | +2.04% | +209.11 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.63% | -1.92% | -197.22 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +46.28% | +1.76% | +181.06 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +46.56% | +1.62% | +166.22 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +96.32% | +3.41% | +350.22 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -66.01% | -3.35% | -343.76 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +21.30% | +2.42% | +248.71 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +66.39% | +3.12% | +320.41 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +66.26% | +3.13% | +321.86 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +32.08% | +1.72% | +176.88 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +62.22% | +3.30% | +339.30 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -50.78% | -3.46% | -354.85 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +64.37% | +2.76% | +283.90 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -47.42% | -4.27% | -438.72 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +66.88% | +3.16% | +324.95 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +125.47% | +10.33% | +1061.02 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -75.79% | -9.83% | -1009.49 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +62.92% | +2.11% | +216.97 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +152.56% | +4.52% | +464.49 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.75% | -4.37% | -448.73 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +68.44% | +1.13% | +116.46 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -16.85% | +1.17% | +120.29 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -6.08% | +0.54% | +55.13 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +2.03% | +0.24% | +24.48 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +6.40% | +0.47% | +48.44 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.56% | +0.06% | +6.11 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (TWQ) | · | -2.53% | -260.06 |
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -2.84% | -1.10% | -112.73 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +13.76% | -2.42% | -249.01 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -41.57% | -1.05% | -107.99 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -29.95% | -1.33% | -136.40 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -33.86% | -1.50% | -154.31 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -39.08% | -1.72% | -176.96 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -36.10% | -2.61% | -267.71 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -37.61% | -2.61% | -267.83 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.63% | -1.92% | -197.22 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -53.17% | -2.60% | -267.11 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -58.77% | -2.90% | -297.90 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -66.01% | -3.35% | -343.76 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -63.66% | -5.58% | -572.62 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -65.18% | -5.54% | -568.83 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -60.52% | -3.21% | -329.37 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -59.93% | -2.99% | -307.11 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -70.83% | -4.37% | -449.12 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -68.20% | -3.35% | -344.12 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -65.20% | -5.33% | -547.63 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -71.43% | -5.48% | -562.64 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -80.07% | -5.18% | -531.80 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -47.64% | -2.15% | -220.77 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -60.02% | -2.49% | -256.12 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -87.96% | -2.32% | -238.17 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -39.97% | -3.20% | -328.82 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -63.05% | -4.09% | -419.94 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -56.73% | -4.95% | -508.68 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -88.04% | -4.48% | -460.04 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -75.75% | -4.37% | -448.73 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -71.88% | -2.13% | -218.61 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -48.92% | -2.99% | -306.96 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -56.56% | -2.41% | -247.79 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -42.36% | -1.56% | -160.64 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -69.36% | -2.89% | -296.80 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -83.60% | -4.67% | -479.35 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -38.83% | -1.58% | -162.09 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -85.36% | -4.35% | -446.54 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +136.34% | +2.04% | +209.11 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +66.49% | +2.64% | +270.98 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +80.81% | +2.89% | +296.40 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +96.32% | +3.41% | +350.22 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +72.45% | +5.57% | +572.27 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +73.18% | +5.35% | +548.96 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +69.94% | +3.14% | +322.25 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +95.45% | +3.06% | +313.94 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +85.99% | +3.53% | +362.11 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +113.68% | +4.07% | +418.33 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +58.26% | +5.15% | +529.41 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +87.31% | +5.53% | +567.64 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +169.10% | +5.43% | +557.44 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +60.94% | +2.53% | +260.33 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +88.64% | +3.30% | +338.80 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +112.45% | +2.29% | +235.48 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +40.58% | +2.64% | +270.87 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +74.86% | +4.07% | +417.53 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +51.10% | +5.17% | +531.03 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +57.04% | +4.34% | +445.80 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +152.56% | +4.52% | +464.49 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +162.84% | +2.09% | +215.12 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +11.84% | +2.67% | +273.76 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +103.80% | +2.03% | +207.99 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +184.26% | +7.79% | +799.81 |
| PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS) | -45.39% | -3.74% | -384.06 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -65.46% | -6.13% | -630.07 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL SHORT ETN (SZO) | -37.07% | -3.33% | -341.85 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +48.69% | +2.63% | +270.28 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +39.70% | +3.10% | +317.97 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -43.74% | +3.83% | +392.90 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +8.41% | +3.54% | +363.77 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +61.61% | +1.80% | +184.92 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +63.31% | +1.36% | +139.73 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +4.58% | +1.96% | +200.99 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +12.47% | +2.89% | +296.35 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +8.98% | +3.00% | +308.38 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +9.65% | +3.62% | +371.96 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +22.55% | +1.06% | +109.38 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +28.01% | +1.83% | +188.02 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +52.71% | +2.73% | +280.90 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +33.11% | +2.16% | +221.51 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | +2.65% | +3.01% | +308.89 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +106.49% | +4.61% | +472.98 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +100.13% | +4.25% | +436.86 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +50.15% | +4.17% | +428.64 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -29.73% | -0.87% | -88.90 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -6.20% | -1.25% | -128.00 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.96% | -0.45% | -46.01 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +15.49% | +0.46% | +46.85 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | -0.21% | -21.90 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING DWN (DMM) | · | -0.55% | -56.06 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | +2.32% | +238.52 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | -2.12% | -217.36 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | +4.01% | +411.74 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | -3.64% | -373.66 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +124.24% | +4.53% | +464.91 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -77.04% | -4.28% | -439.85 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +146.19% | +5.13% | +526.82 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -65.89% | -5.30% | -544.51 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +95.05% | +7.76% | +796.85 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -82.90% | -7.85% | -806.02 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +59.14% | +6.80% | +697.88 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -75.55% | -6.93% | -711.99 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +106.50% | +3.41% | +350.53 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.83% | -3.34% | -342.70 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +286.68% | +2.94% | +301.46 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -86.79% | -3.11% | -319.39 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +175.31% | +3.22% | +330.79 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -84.60% | -4.44% | -456.17 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +387.54% | +7.11% | +730.57 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.58% | -7.48% | -768.41 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | +4.27% | +438.93 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | -4.35% | -447.11 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Bulls, Be Careful What You Wish For
Stock market bulls are pinning their hopes of a continuously rising market on the idea of a big recovery in the economy, with earnings exploding next year. That's why they tolerate the fact that the current Price/Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 stocks is in nosebleed territory at 138. Historically, that's about 10 times as high as it should be, of course, so the only way prices won't come down will be if earnings pick up sharply over the next few months. And, we have to say, the economy would have to stage a miraculous recovery to pump earnings up to the levels which would justify such multiples as we see today. The other assumption inherent in the market is that the Fed will keep interest rates at zero even if the economy starts recovering. The latter may be the Achilles Heel in the bullish argument.
Paradoxically, if we do get an explosive rise in the economy over the next few months, whether it's due to massive stimulus payments by the Federal government (likely) or organic growth in earnings (not as likely, but possible), it's almost certain that the Fed will start to take the punch bowl of "free money" away---thereby exploding the bullish assumption that rates will stay at zero indefinitely into the future. With the short term rate pegged at zero, banks have had the opportunity to suck money out of the US Treasury like never before. But, if the economy were growing well, the political pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates to cool the free ride for banks will become intense. Ron Paul and over 300 other representatives have signed onto a bill in Congress which is a thinly-disguised "toe in the door" of the Fed ultimately designed to end that institution (Paul is author of the book End the Fed in case you weren't aware). If the Fed were to keep the "free money" for the banks gushing with the economy apparently on the road to recovery, they would very quickly find themselves ripped apart and exposed to the public. And, just as a vampire cannot come out to play in the sun, the private central bank known as the "Fed" cannot operate in the light of public scrutiny. Clearly, the Fed will be quick to raise interest rates should the bulls' estimation of earnings prove correct.
But, current prices are based upon the notion of a Fed keeping money very easy indefinitely. If the Fed were to actually raise rates, that assumption would be dashed and, suddenly, stock prices would need to be revalued downward to adjust to a rising rate environment. It may seem paradoxical, but good news on the economy is really very bad news for stock prices. That's why every piece of bad news, such as the rise in the underemployment rate to 17½%, was treated with such jubilation in the stock market. Paradoxical? No, not really, because bad news keeps the Fed on hold. Good news will change the basic assumption underlying the bullish case---and not toward higher prices.
Economic Cycles Research Institute (ECRI): Future Inflation, Economic Growth Rising
ECRI reported in October that:
The October USFIG [US Future Inflation Gauge] annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, rose to 17.3% from an upwardly revised 12.9% in September.
In addition, ECRI reported:
The JoC-ECRI IPI is a leading indicator of industrial activity and of inflation rates.
The JoC-ECRI index for the week ending Oct. 30 advanced to 98.2185, a record for 2009 and 15 points higher than the index for the same date a year ago.
The growth rate of the JoC-ECRI index, which has been in positive territory for 15 weeks in a row, after 49 weeks of decline, also hit a record high for 2009 of 56.4601.
The new yearly highs for the index and for its growth rate indicate that a global industrial recovery is well under way. The index often foreshadows changes in the Baltic Dry Index of freight rates for dry bulk commodities, which has also been moving upward in recent weeks as China has moved to replenish its stocks of iron ore.
ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan points out that high and rising unemployment is really no impediment to a recovery for businesses. Shedding employees and conserving capital allows fast growth rates, despite the fact that unemployment rate is currently 25% using the same yardstick used to measure unemployment during the Great Depression:
In the spring of 1933 the unemployment rate comparable to the rate today was 25%, yet the economy embarked on a blistering recovery, averaging 10% growth for the next four years, and at the same time the unemployment rate fell 3% in each year.
To put this in perspective, we just had the worst recession since the Depression, so of course we're going to have high and rising unemployment.
Herd On The Street
The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 138. This nosebleed valuation level requires the Fed maintain short term interest rates at zero for a prolonged period of time.
Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 12 Nov 2009 To 13 Nov 2009
| Security | Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 | Percentage Change From 12 Nov 2009 | Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (index) | +29.20% | +0.72% | +73.00 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA) | +29.59% | +0.72% | +73.86 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +62.21% | +1.43% | +146.20 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -51.92% | -1.35% | -137.36 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +35.81% | +0.58% | +59.46 |
| S&P SPDRS (SPY) | +36.06% | +0.54% | +55.18 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +75.74% | +1.10% | +112.28 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.54% | -1.02% | -103.97 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +40.76% | +0.80% | +82.06 |
| ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC) | +41.26% | +0.79% | +80.16 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +34.53% | +0.91% | +92.47 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +63.35% | +1.65% | +168.30 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.39% | -0.73% | -74.36 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.51% | -1.53% | -156.23 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +35.21% | +1.03% | +105.43 |
| ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM) | +35.54% | +0.96% | +98.17 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +64.39% | +1.99% | +203.29 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.14% | -1.98% | -201.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +57.38% | +0.88% | +90.18 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ) | +57.40% | +0.82% | +84.10 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +131.62% | +1.68% | +171.53 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.00% | -1.75% | -177.98 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +43.74% | +0.99% | +100.58 |
| ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH) | +44.23% | +1.03% | +104.76 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +89.85% | +1.90% | +193.27 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -64.83% | -1.94% | -198.33 |
| GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC) | +18.43% | +0.76% | +77.50 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +61.36% | +2.67% | +272.47 |
| MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX) | +61.20% | +2.77% | +282.09 |
| SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD) | +29.84% | +1.41% | +144.18 |
| ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL) | +57.03% | +2.81% | +286.41 |
| ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL) | -49.02% | -2.78% | -283.81 |
| IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM) | +59.95% | +3.77% | +384.27 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ) | -45.08% | -3.38% | -344.98 |
| PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP) | +61.76% | +2.66% | +271.68 |
| ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ) | +104.36% | +2.45% | +250.25 |
| ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL) | -73.15% | -2.50% | -254.94 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +59.55% | +1.20% | +122.16 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +141.63% | +1.53% | +156.08 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -74.64% | -1.49% | -152.27 |
| ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF) | +66.55% | -0.04% | -3.92 |
| ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT) | -17.82% | +0.46% | +46.90 |
| ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF) | -6.58% | +0.08% | +7.83 |
| ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG) | +1.79% | +0.10% | +10.70 |
| ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD) | +5.90% | +0.29% | +29.91 |
| ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY) | -0.61% | +0.02% | +2.43 |
| ProShares ETFs | |||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (TWQ) | · | -1.23% | -125.61 |
| ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST) | -1.76% | -0.21% | -21.56 |
| ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT) | +16.59% | -1.32% | -134.83 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -40.95% | -0.85% | -86.38 |
| SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -29.00% | -0.74% | -75.73 |
| SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH) | -32.86% | -0.55% | -56.43 |
| SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -38.01% | -0.92% | -93.57 |
| SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB) | -34.39% | -0.73% | -74.36 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM) | -35.94% | -1.10% | -112.41 |
| ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID) | -67.00% | -1.75% | -177.98 |
| ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD) | -51.92% | -1.35% | -137.36 |
| ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS) | -57.54% | -1.02% | -103.97 |
| ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ) | -64.83% | -1.94% | -198.33 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD) | -61.51% | -1.53% | -156.23 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM) | -63.14% | -1.98% | -201.63 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 VALUE PRO (SJF) | -59.21% | -1.05% | -106.64 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK) | -58.69% | -1.05% | -106.81 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL) | -69.50% | -1.47% | -149.86 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK) | -67.10% | -1.63% | -166.32 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH) | -63.24% | -2.43% | -247.79 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK) | -69.78% | -1.63% | -165.74 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN) | -78.98% | -1.28% | -130.32 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK) | -46.49% | -1.69% | -171.94 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC) | -59.00% | -2.22% | -226.28 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF) | -87.67% | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD) | -37.98% | -0.36% | -36.73 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ) | -61.48% | -1.42% | -144.84 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG) | -54.47% | -1.17% | -118.85 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS) | -87.48% | -2.93% | -299.27 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG) | -74.64% | -1.49% | -152.27 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW) | -71.27% | -1.85% | -188.92 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP) | -47.34% | -1.51% | -154.25 |
| SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM) | -55.48% | -1.73% | -176.30 |
| SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ) | -41.45% | -1.32% | -134.91 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU) | -68.44% | -2.69% | -273.86 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV) | -82.80% | -3.58% | -365.41 |
| ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV) | -37.85% | -2.23% | -227.50 |
| ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP) | -84.69% | -3.31% | -337.75 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +131.62% | +1.68% | +171.53 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM) | +62.21% | +1.43% | +146.20 |
| ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO) | +75.74% | +1.10% | +112.28 |
| ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV) | +89.85% | +1.90% | +193.27 |
| ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA) | +63.35% | +1.65% | +168.30 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM) | +64.39% | +1.99% | +203.29 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG) | +64.77% | +0.95% | +96.90 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF) | +89.65% | +0.96% | +98.35 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU) | +79.65% | +0.93% | +95.26 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW) | +105.32% | +1.22% | +124.71 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT) | +50.50% | +2.27% | +231.15 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK) | +77.50% | +1.38% | +140.94 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM) | +155.25% | +1.30% | +132.52 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE) | +56.96% | +1.37% | +139.32 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC) | +82.62% | +1.79% | +182.62 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG) | +107.69% | -0.18% | -17.95 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL) | +36.97% | +0.33% | +33.73 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI) | +68.03% | +1.45% | +148.24 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG) | +43.67% | +1.18% | +120.18 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE) | +50.50% | +2.39% | +244.04 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD) | +141.63% | +1.53% | +156.08 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM) | +157.45% | +1.84% | +187.37 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW) | +8.93% | +1.70% | +173.15 |
| Other ETFs | |||
| PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +99.76% | +0.41% | +41.47 |
| PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD) | +163.72% | +1.63% | +165.93 |
| PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS) | -43.27% | -0.80% | -81.35 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO) | -63.21% | +0.76% | +77.28 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL SHORT ETN (SZO) | -34.90% | +0.39% | +40.21 |
| PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO) | +44.88% | -0.37% | -38.19 |
| IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL) | +35.50% | -0.42% | -43.23 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ) | -45.81% | +0.08% | +7.81 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE) | +4.70% | -0.16% | -16.03 |
| MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO) | +58.75% | +0.12% | +12.42 |
| PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG) | +61.12% | -0.24% | -24.42 |
| PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA) | +2.57% | +0.16% | +15.99 |
| IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA) | +9.31% | +0.49% | +49.67 |
| ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA) | +5.80% | +0.39% | +40.09 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO) | +5.82% | +1.21% | +123.70 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB) | +21.26% | -0.36% | -36.79 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL) | +25.71% | +1.27% | +129.98 |
| IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG) | +48.64% | -0.58% | -58.96 |
| IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU) | +30.30% | +0.47% | +47.88 |
| IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG) | -0.35% | -0.18% | -17.86 |
| IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC) | +97.40% | +1.36% | +138.52 |
| IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD) | +91.96% | +0.87% | +89.23 |
| IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN) | +44.13% | +0.54% | +55.08 |
| ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO) | -29.12% | -1.03% | -104.83 |
| ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS) | -5.02% | -1.47% | -150.26 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP) | -14.58% | -2.11% | -214.68 |
| PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN) | +14.97% | +0.64% | +64.81 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING UP (UMM) | · | +0.09% | +8.70 |
| MACROSHS HOUSING DWN (DMM) | · | -1.27% | -129.53 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | |||
| DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD) | · | +0.10% | +10.05 |
| DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO) | · | -0.29% | -30.06 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF) | · | +1.59% | +162.52 |
| DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV) | · | -1.86% | -190.09 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU) | +114.53% | +1.64% | +167.57 |
| DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ) | -76.01% | -1.84% | -187.55 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ) | +134.18% | +2.24% | +228.15 |
| DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN) | -63.98% | -2.42% | -246.43 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA) | +81.01% | +2.89% | +294.60 |
| DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA) | -81.44% | -3.21% | -327.41 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX) | +49.01% | +1.64% | +167.47 |
| DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY) | -73.72% | -1.62% | -165.18 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS) | +99.69% | -0.46% | -46.64 |
| DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ) | -97.76% | +0.30% | +31.03 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH) | +275.65% | +2.93% | +298.36 |
| DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP) | -86.37% | -2.65% | -270.13 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK) | +166.72% | +4.77% | +486.79 |
| DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK) | -83.89% | -3.83% | -390.73 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC) | +355.17% | +5.10% | +519.72 |
| DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ) | -94.14% | -5.03% | -512.52 |
| PROSHARES (UPRO) | · | +1.82% | +185.81 |
| PROSHARES (SPXU) | · | -1.82% | -186.06 |
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