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Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Of our two lead dogs, which should you be watching? A: Not NDX

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wait To Buy a New Car

Why wait? Well, in just a few years, your new car will:
  • Be self-driving—leave the driving to it.
  • Be electric—cheap electric cars mean much more economical traveling.

So, how long will you need to wait? Looks like it will be about six years.

Geomagnetic Model Predicts Stock Market High

John Hampson's Geomagnetic Model for the stock market in 2014 is predicting a high for the stock market this week:
Source: S O L A R C Y C L E S

Russia's Achilles Heel

Russia has a huge Achilles Heel: Oil and natural gas sales accounted for 68% of Russia’s total export revenues in 2013:
Russia is a major exporter of crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas. Sales of these fuels accounted for 68% of Russia's total export revenues in 2013, based on data from Russia's Federal Customs Service. Russia received almost four times as much revenue from exports of crude oil and petroleum products as from natural gas. Crude oil exports alone were greater in value than the value of all non-oil and natural gas exports.
Europe, including Turkey, receives most of Russia's exports of crude oil and products, as well as virtually all exports of natural gas. Asia (especially China) receives substantial volumes of crude oil and some liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. Recently, Russia finalized a 30-year, $400 billion deal to supply China with natural gas from fields in Eastern Siberia, which will further increase Russian export revenues. North America imports some Russian petroleum products, particularly unfinished oils used in refineries.
Although Russia exports less crude oil and less natural gas than it consumes domestically, domestic sales of crude oil and natural gas are much lower in value than exports because of vertical integration of the oil and natural gas industry and subsidized domestic prices.
Many Russian oil firms are vertically integrated, owning both the oil fields and refineries that process crude oil. These firms can sell crude oil directly to their own refineries at low prices. Domestic natural gas prices are also subsidized, forcing Russian companies like Gazprom to use export revenue to fund investment in new infrastructure and projects. EIA estimates that Russian domestic sales of natural gas and crude oil were about $20 billion in 2013, based on data from IHS Energy.
Although revenue from domestic sales of crude oil and natural gas in 2013 was significantly lower than revenue from exports, Russian domestic sales of petroleum products, particularly motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil, were approximately $102 billion, similar to revenue from product exports.
Oil and natural gas activities make up a large portion of Russia's federal budget. According to the Ministry of Finance, 50% of Russia's federal budget revenue in 2013 came from mineral extraction taxes and export customs duties on oil and natural gas.

EWI Pro Services Open House, July 23-30

We've never done this before.

That's the message we received from our friends at Elliott Wave International regarding a new, one-of-a-kind event that they're hosting.

On July 23-30, for 7 days only, they are "opening the doors" to the entire line of their intensive Pro Services -- free.

Pro Services are the most nimble, opportunity-rich, professional-grade forecasting services at EWI -- covering 48 of the world's top markets, some 24 hours a day, complete with detailed charts and analysis.

Chances are, Pro Services are like nothing you've experienced before.

Why are they "opening the doors"? Previously, Pro Services were reserved mostly for institutional subscribers. Today, everyone can trade the markets only the pros could trade before. They want you to experience the quality of professional-grade market forecasting. We think you'll love it.

Join EWI July 23-30 and get intensive Pro Service forecasts for 5 major market categories:

  1. Stocks (U.S., Europe, Asia)
  2. Currencies (11 biggest forex pairs)
  3. Metals (futures: precious and industrial)
  4. Energy (futures: crude, Brent, nat gas and more)
  5. Interest Rates (futures: bonds in U.S., Europe, Asia)

Whatever market you are into, chances are, Pro Services have a forecast for you.

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About the Publisher, Elliott Wave International
Founded in 1979 by Robert R. Prechter Jr., Elliott Wave International (EWI) is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Traditional divergences at significant tops are appearing in the stock market.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, July 21, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Consolidation was the name of the game today. A particular pattern which could lead to big profits?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, July 20, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis PDF have been updated on the website. Correction continues despite bounce.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Sliding down the slippery slope is getting popular nowadays in the stock market.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Making Money in Solar (Video)

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Let's look back at the 2007 stock market top today and see how it parallels today.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, July 14, 2014

(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market

(Video) Retail Money Market Funds Signal Reversal for the Stock Market
Steve Hochberg on the state of retail money market funds vs. stock market capitalization, filmed at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The article below is adapted from the transcript of the live presentation above, originally recorded at the 2014 Las Vegas Money Show. It features Elliott Wave International Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg. Hochberg is co-editor of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, one of EWI's flasgship market letters. Click here for a free excerpt from Hochberg's latest issue.

This chart is a picture of retail money market funds as a percentage of market capitalization.

In other words, when people are super bullish, they don't want to hold any money in money market funds. They want to invest it, right?

Because why hold money aside when you don't think the market's going down, when it can be in the market if you think it's going up?

When people are super bearish, what do they do? They take money out of the market, and they put it into money market funds hoping to wait out what they view as a declining market.

Now look at the upward spikes in this chart.

You can see that there was a high percentage of money in money market funds as a percentage of market cap back in 1982 as the market was bottoming and starting that great bull market.

Shortly after the 1987 crash, people got really scared; and again in 2002 after the market had been down 38%, and also in 2009 after the market declined 58%.

We are now at a new all-time low in the percentage of retail money market funds relative of market cap at just 2.8%. In other words, people are fully invested.

Investors are so optimistic about the future, they see no reason to keep money in money market funds in case the market goes down.

This is a classic warning sign that a reversal is ahead.

For a free excerpt from Steve Hochberg's latest, July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here. For a limited-time, EWI is giving away free access to a big chunk from the latest issue, complete with specific forecasts, analysis and labeled charts.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Another bearish, countertrend rally? Watch that next step down!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thomson-Reuters Predict Solar Power Will Dominate Energy by 2025

You heard it here first, though. We predicted that solar energy will provide 100% of our energy needs by 2027. Now, just over a year since we made that projection, a new study by Thomson-Reuters analysts says that by 2025, solar will provide the majority of our energy. The newly-released study says:
This paper is a compilation of 10 innovation predictions for the world in 2025, based on research done by Thomson Reuters analysts using the company's patent and scientific literature solutions...
In 2025, Solar is the largest source of energy on the planet.
Methods for harvesting, storing and converting solar energy are so advanced and efficient that it becomes the primary source of energy on our planet.
Thanks to improvements in photovoltaic technology, chemical bonding, photocatalysts and three-dimensional nanoscale heterojunctions, the use of the sun as the world's primary source of energy is no longer for the environmentally conscious select; it is for the masses.
The sun's energy will be harvested much more efficiently. Its energy will be stored and used when needed. And the conversion of solar power will be much more efficient. Solar thermal and solar photovoltaic energy (from new dye-sensitized and thin-film materials) will heat buildings, water, and provide energy for devices in the home and office, as well as in retail buildings and manufacturing facilities.
Chemical bonds, a photosynthetic process, will make solar energy available when needed. Increased efficiency of energy conversion will be realized through new materials such as cobalt-oxide and titanium-oxide nanostructures, photocatalysts and 3D nanoscale heterojunctions; while new methods using mesoscopic oxide films sensitized by dyes or quantum dots will contribute to improving the 2014 solar conversion efficiency rate of less than 10 percent.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Countertrend rally time is here.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Death Knell For Fossil Fuels

Bloomberg News reports that Shakeout Threatens Shale Patch as Frackers Go for Broke:
The U.S. shale patch is facing a shakeout as drillers struggle to keep pace with the relentless spending needed to get oil and gas out of the ground.
Shale debt has almost doubled over the last four years while revenue has gained just 5.6 percent, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of 61 shale drillers. A dozen of those wildcatters are spending at least 10 percent of their sales on interest compared with Exxon Mobil Corp.'s 0.1 percent. "The list of companies that are financially stressed is considerable," said Benjamin Dell, managing partner of Kimmeridge Energy, a New York-based alternative asset manager focused on energy. "Not everyone is going to survive. We've seen it before."
Some investors are already bailing out. On May 23, Loews Corp. (L), the holding company run by New York's Tisch family, said it is weighing the sale of HighMount Exploration & Production LLC, its oil and natural gas subsidiary, at a loss.
HighMount lost $20 million in the first three months of the year, after being unprofitable in 2013 and 2012, Loews said it its financial reports. As with much of the industry, HighMount has shifted its focus to oil after natural gas prices plunged and has struggled to find sites worth developing, company records show.
Mary Skafidas, a spokeswoman for Loews, declined comment.
In a measure of the shale industry's financial burden, debt hit $163.6 billion in the first quarter, according to company records compiled by Bloomberg on 61 exploration and production companies that target oil and natural gas trapped in deep underground layers of rock. And companies including Forest Oil Corp. (FST), Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) and Quicksilver Resources Inc. (KWK) racked up interest expense of more than 20 percent.
So much for the Bridge To Nowhere that natural gas represents. By 2020, the fracking boom will be just another big bust. Who will benefit from the bust? Solar power will. By the latter half of the third decade of the twenty-first century, solar will be the dominant source of energy on this planet.

Mike Stasse: The Crash Rachets Up

Mike Stasse writes from Australia:

It’s often been said among Peakniks that ‘the crash’ is not an event that will occur smoothly or suddenly, but rather in steps… so a sudden downturn like what happened when the GFC first hit would hit a low, followed by perhaps another rise at best, or a plateau. Then another sharp downturn would shape the next step down to an even lower plateau. How long these plateaus last of course is anyone’s guess, and they are at the mercy of events. Who can guess what might happen in the Middle East next?

Just such a downturn may now not be far away.

Bank lending, it seems, has been setting new records since mid-2013, especially in the USA. If the last credit bubble – when too many dodgy loans were made by overenthusiastic loan officers before it all blew up in 2008 – was spectacular, this one is even more so….. Based on the loose principle that the US economy can only grow if bank lending balloons, it appears that the lowering ERoEI of the oil industry may be at its core.

This is what the auspicious chart of core bank loans outstanding looks like (via OtterWood Capital Management):

http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/US-Core-bank_loans.png

This time around, economists have been using the borrowing binge as proof that investment was suddenly picking up, that these investments would filter into economic growth, and that after all this time of mirages and sour disappointments, the ever elusive “escape velocity” would finally come……..

It turns out that that jump in investment – powered by bank lending, investment is a code word for debt – that economists have so enthusiastically shown as ‘proof of return to normal’ has been nothing but an illusion. And no, it wasn’t some blogger spouting off pessimistic data, but the Financial Times, quoting such sources as “senior executives” inside major US banks who “are privately warning” that this new lending binge “should not be seen as evidence of an economic recovery.”

Instead, much of the borrowed money was used “to fund payouts to shareholders” via dividends (remember Shell..?) and stock buybacks and to “finance acquisitions,” the source said. None of these activities are productive, in fact, these acquisitions lead companies to boast about synergies and labour efficiencies – that is, redundencies – at either end, as these businesses get consolidated.

And here’s the sting…… Part of that borrowed money is being ploughed into the American fracking boom where drillers on the terrible treadmill that fracking really is have to contend with terribly sharp depletion rates, forcing them to drill ever more wells just to maintain production. And they can never get off that treadmill because production would soon collapse if they did, and with each new well they have to borrow more, and then they require more production just to service the ballooning debt. Revenues have risen 5.6% over the last four years while debt that drillers have piled on has nearly doubled [read... The Fracking Shakeout].

Watch this space, things might get awfully interesting soon…… because as soon as Peak Fracking hits, and that is bound to happen before 2020, all hell will break loose.

We Get the Government We Deserve

Without taking a position on whether GMOs are good or bad, we note that the public gets the government it deserves through the electoral process. Thus, we get this kind of government as reported by NewsMax in Americans Too Stupid for GMO Labeling:
It's pretty rare that members of Congress and all the witnesses they've called will declare out loud that Americans are just too ignorant to be given a piece of information, but that was a key conclusion of a session of the House Agriculture Committee this week.
The issue was genetically modified organisms, or GMOs. Members of the subcommittee on Horticulture, Research, Biotechnology, and Foreign Agriculture, as well as their four experts, say that the genetic engineering of food crops has been a success, and that people who oppose GMOs, or want them labeled, are alarmists who thrive on fear and ignorance.
Entirely missing from the hearing was any suggestion that there are real concerns about the impact of genetically engineered food, such as the growth of pesticide-resistant "super weeds," over-reliance on single-crop factory farming, decreased biodiversity, and the lack of a consistent approval process.
Clearly, Congress' opinion of the electorate matches the electorate's opinion of Congress.

Friday, July 11, 2014

It's All About Storage: Batteries Versus Super Capacitors (Video)

Our energy future will depend upon being able to store renewable energy, which inherently is intermittent energy. Storage is the key. In this video, the difference between a battery and a super capacitor is explained:

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Supermoons All Summer (Video)

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Don't ignore stinky breadth!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Less Work, More Leisure

Peter Diamandis writes in Evidence of Abundance #1: More Leisure, Less Work that:
This first blog in my "Evidence of Abundance" series is about an Increasing Abundance of Leisure. My goal, with your help, is to get the data out as far and wide as possible.
Evidence of Abundance: Work and Leisure
It's easy to forget that for centuries — for millenia — the "workforce" was ALL of us.
A few people lived in luxury, but the vast majority were slaves and serfs who did the work. In 1750, 75 percent of people on the planet worked to support the top 25 percent.
The more interesting question is how we are going to deal with the fact that most jobs are going to disappear. Just today, IBM announced it would be building an artificial human brain. Not only will it have just as many neurons as a human brain, it won't use any more power than a human brain. And, it will think much faster than a human brain because electronic circuits run millions of times faster than a human brain. Remember, this is the company which produced Watson, a computer which defeated the two best Jeopardy champions. It won't be long before the term “labor” will be as obsolete as the horse-drawn carriage. Jobs will be done by computers. We will have leisure, but will we have income to go around?

How Hot Will Your USA City Be in 2100?


If it feels hot to you now in the dog days of this summer, imagine a time when summertime Boston starts feeling like Miami and even Montana sizzles.

The Prosumer Revolution in Energy Heats Up Down Under

One of our favorite bloggers, Mike Stasse, writes about the movement toward going off-grid in Australia. Apparently, the economics are greatly favoring those who have solar installations going off-grid now:
I know I only wrote about The Electricity Industry's Death Spiral just a couple of days ago, but the speed at which things are now moving is almost bewildering. The subject of disconnecting from the grid and moving to battery storage actually made it to the evening news last night I wish I could post a link to this video clip, but it looks like the ABC isn't playing ball. In truth, the owner of the system did such a bad job explaining how it works I doubt installers will be rushed off their feet just yet.
The new government has been simultanously trying to rollback the carbon tax instituted by the previous government and raise energy prices as well. As Mike points out, “So if people in Qld lose what paltry feed in tariff they were getting, what incentive is there to stay connected?” Indeed, the prosumer revolution is alive and well and bound to grow stronger Down Under.

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the second shoe about to drop? Sure looks like it will.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Unmistakable Signs of the Current Recession

Government tells us the economy is expanding. But, they lie. John Mauldin has some quotes from Charles Gave:
Every US recession that I can recall was preceded by a fall in long rates, and I doubt the next will be much different. As such, do not expect the next US downturn to arise from the Federal Reserve pushing rates higher, an overvalued dollar or even mal-investments. Expect it to result from a decline in the income of the working poor. Early warning signs are likely to show up in the shopping aisles of stores such as Walmart, average driving miles, and the price of houses at the cheaper end of the market. I suspect the lesson that will eventually be learnt is that in a modern industrialized economy there are few worse things a central bank can do than deliberately attack the spending power of the poor.
...At a moral level, I would also question the validity of a system that no longer allows its weakest members to get by. This is why I contend that the post-2010 policy of ZIRP has had little to do with protecting the health of the capitalist system, but rather has been a ruse to protect the rich. The policy is not only failing to deliver growth, it is also immoral.
...Pretty much every equity bear market in the US over the last 30 years has occurred against the backdrop of the working poor experiencing a decline in living standards (the one exception was 1987 when the market was reacting to over valuation).
When people in the future look back on this era, what will they write? It should be very interesting reading.

Government Lies Expanding

The government lies about inflation, employment and, now, GDP.

After the atrocious drop in Gross Domestic Product in 1Q2014, government apparatchiks are coming up with creative ways to bolster GDP. Their latest gimmick is to reclassify some expenses as income. That moves them to the positive side of the ledger, not in reality, but in the fantasy world of GDP. GDP has always been a very poor way to judge the economy. For instance, if the crime rate goes up, the government hires more police. That's obviously an expense and should subtract from GDP. But, no, government considers that “growth.”

Now, the government has decided that Research & Development expenses should be counted as income when it comes to GDP. From an expenditure to income, government crazies think no one notices that GDP no longer is a gauge of the economy's health. Eventually, they are going to reclassify more expenditures to income and we'll never have another official recession.

Can't wait for that day.

Our take: the economy went into recession in the 1990s and has been in one ever since. The government continually adds to the GDP lies, first by understating inflation (which shows negative growth in GDP for the past few decades), and now by inverting the meaning of “income.”

If you reported your income and expenses on your income tax return the way the government does, you'd be in prison before long. And, you'd be counted as “employed” as well.

Our Moment of Truth Has Arrived

The Deep Decarbonization Report published yesterday makes some very serious points that underline the gravity of climate change:
Our moment of truth has arrived. Twenty-two years ago at the Rio Earth Summit, the world's governments recognized that humanity was changing the climate system profoundly, posing risks for human wellbeing and sustainable development prospects. They adopted the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) two years later, and resolved to protect the planet and promote sustainable development by stabilizing "GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
Yet, more than two decades later, GHG emissions are stil far from stabilizing. In 1994, at the first Conference of the Parties (COP1) of the UNFCCC, CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and direct CO2 emissions from industrial processes were 23 bil ion tons (gigatons or Gt), and the CO2 concentration stood at 358.8 parts per mil ion (ppm). By 2013, at COP19, global CO2 emissions had soared to 36 bil ion tons, and CO2 concentrations stood at 396.5 ppm.
Every country has signed on to fight against human-induced climate change, but the world remains dangerously off course from the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC. There is, as of yet, no prospect of stabilizing GHG concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced climate change. The Parties to the UNFCCC have now had 19 annual meetings since 1994. These COPs have borne the world's hopes and disappointments in our collective inability to date to head off a growing catastrophe.
At the 16th COP held in Cancun in 2010, the world's governments committed to a new and clear target: to keep the global rise in mean surface temperature below 2°C compared with the pre-industrial average. The COP added a proviso that the 2°C limit may be revised downward to 1.5°C in light of available science. The 2°C limit is the world's most explicit, and many climate scientists would say last-ditch, effort to operationalize the goal of avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Pay Me Now Or Pay Me Later

As a species, we have a choice: pay to fix the climate now, or pay much more later (if it's possible to fix the problem at all).

The Daily Climate's Marianne Lavelle writes::
The world lacks not only the will, but the technology to achieve the deep carbon cuts needed to avert catastrophic climate change, according to a report presented to the United Nations today by leading research institutions in 15 countries.
The scientists maintain that limiting global warming to 2° Celsius above pre-industrial levels is still achievable — just barely — but will require an international multi-billion dollar commitment to research, development, demonstration, and diffusion of low-carbon technology.
"The deep transformation that is required depends on technology that is not yet operating at scale ... and for which scalability is not yet proven," said Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University's Earth Institute and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), which coordinated the report.
Involving scientists from 30 institutions in 15 countries that together account for 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, the report is the first global cooperative effort to identify practical pathways to achieving a low-carbon economy 2050, SDSN said.
The group considers its work an interim document, which it posted publicly for comment this morning after a briefing for United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon.
In a statement, Ban praised the effort, saying the report "shows what's possible."
But the document's key message is sobering. Sachs said the research indicates that commitments for emissions cuts are necessary but alone are insufficient to address the climate crisis. Nations also need to commit to investment in the scientific research that will be needed to carry out any of those pledges.
World carbon emissions, which today average 5 tons per person per year, should be reduced to 1.6 tons per person by the middle of the century, the report concluded. That's the carbon footprint of a typical citizen of Senegal today, according to the World Resources Institute's climate data explorer.
Americans average about 18 tons per person in energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, the report said.
To bring emissions down dramatically, the report singled out five key areas where major scientific advances are needed to ensure technology was affordable and widely available: carbon capture and storage (CCS), energy storage and grid management, advanced nuclear energy, vehicles and advanced biofuels, and so-called "negative" emissions technologies. Major advances are also needed in industrial processes like cement- and steel-making, the authors said.
"The world has been very gimmicky in making announcements [on carbon cuts], but what matters is the carbon arithmetic on this," said Sachs. Negotiators, he added, "have spent 99 percent of their time arguing on allocations" — how much each country should cut emissions — "and only 1 percent of their time talking about 99 percent of the issue" — the practical means for achieving such cuts.
The potential pathways to deep decarbonization mapped out in the report are different for each country, and the technological challenges vary and are greater in some nations than in others.
Jim Williams, chief scientist at the San Francisco-based consulting firm Energy + Environmental Economics (E3), led the development of scenarios for the United States. He said his team made a point of sticking to technologies that already were commercialized or nearly commercial. "We tried to demonstrate that achieving this doesn't necessarily require anything exotic," he said. "These pathways show national and local policymakers, from presidents to mayors, what it takes to decarbonize their economies."
For instance, four potential pathways allow the U.S. to achieve an 85 percent emissions reduction with strong economic growth, his team found. With high deployment of either renewable or nuclear energy, technologies like CCS that are not yet commercialized would not be needed.
In other countries, though, Williams said that the need for technological advances is more urgently felt.
For example, Canada can achieve a 90 percent reduction in emissions while tripling the size of its economy by 2050. That scenario assumes continued expansion of the oil sands, primarily for export to other countries. But the report said that will require "transformative technologies that are not yet commercially available" for mitigating greenhouse gases at every stage of the process, including extraction, processing, and end-use.
Scientists plan to put dollar figures on how much investment is needed in technology research in their final report, due next year. Sachs guessed that the scale of effort needed on just one technology — carbon capture and storage — would approach $50 billion over five to ten years, shared among several nations and public and private sectors. "The real question for CCS is, 'Could China depend on it on large scale? Could India depend on it? Could the United States?' "
Sachs said the climate crisis requires a scientific research effort on the scale of the sequencing of the human genome, the moon shot or the Manhattan Project.
"The U.S. now invests $30 billion in biomedical research through [the National Institutes of Health] but one-tenth of that in low-carbon technology. It's almost absurd, given the stakes."

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Where we found support today was already on our chart.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Attacking the Internet

Cyber criminals are afoot, attacking the internet. And, they're familiar names like Comcast and AT&T.

These corporate raiders think they've bought regulators and can usurp the internet for their own profits. It's time we showed these hooligans the internet is not for sale to the highest bidder. Howard Dean sends this video to the FCC for consideration to that end:

EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. total crude oil production, which averaged 7.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2013, is expected to average 8.5 million bbl/d in 2014 and 9.3 million bbl/d in 2015. The 2015 forecast represents the highest annual average level of oil production since 1972. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.0 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. liquid fuels consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970.
Natural gas working inventories on June 27 totaled 1.93 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 0.67 Tcf (26%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.79 Tcf (29%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). Projected natural gas working inventories reach 3.43 Tcf at the end of October, 0.38 Tcf below the level at the same time last year. EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2013, will average $4.77/MMBtu in 2014 and $4.50/MMBtu in 2015.

Monday, July 07, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What's keeping the bubble expanding? We explain it.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Weekly Analysis PDF Now Available

Our weekly analysis of many market is now available on the website for subscribers.

Thursday, July 03, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Have a great Fourth of July weekend!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Technological Unemployment (Video)

Peter Diamandis on Technological Unemployment:

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What goes down, must come back up!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

We Can See What the Dinosaurs Could Not

The dinosaurs were the dominant species—until an asteroid slammed into the Yucatan 65 million years ago and wiped their habitat out. We don't want to be next dinosaurs. That's why the B612 Foundation is building Sentinel.

We Don’t Have to Play Cosmic Russian Roulette With Asteroids Anymore from Singularity University tells us:

In the grand scheme, impacts are pretty common. Impacts like the Tunguska event in 1908 when a suspected asteroid flattened 1,000 square miles of forest in Siberia. Or last year, when a smaller asteroid detonated with a force equivalent to some 440 kilotons of TNT over the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia shattering windows and frightening residents.
In the last decade, the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty system to detect atmospheric nuclear weapons tests hasn't heard a single bomb blast—but it's recorded scores of asteroid explosions. B612 made an animation of 26 of these from 1 to 600 kilotons. (The atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in 1945 was 15 kilotons.)
Most of these events were too high to do serious damage, but they show how often near-Earth asteroids hit. Tunguska was a multi-megaton blast, bigger than the most powerful atomic bombs in existence. Tunguska was a hundred-year event, and there's a 1% chance of a bigger 100-megaton impact in our lifetime (or 0.01% in any given year).
But when it comes to guarding against an asteroid that could level an entire city or more, Lu says, we're trusting to dumb luck. "The first notice you get is a flash in the sky and a sonic boom." How'd NASA learn about Chelyabinsk? Twitter.
Though Sentinel will focus on larger, more dangerous asteroids, it will also detect some Chelyabinsk-sized objects. And NASA's upcoming ATLAS system of small telescopes will provide advance warning for some (but not all) such strikes, so folks can evacuate or at least stay away from windows.
Even so, there's yet a lot more work to be done.
Scientists have only cataloged about 10,000 or 1% of all near-Earth asteroids. It's estimated we've mapped about 90% of the biggest, extinction-level threats. But 10% are missing in action, and we know nothing of the million or so smaller but still immensely destructive asteroids that could take out an area the size of a state or city.
At the current pace, it would take a thousand years to find them all.
Part of the problem is that the telescopes on the ground or in Earth orbit have a limited view. And asteroids are the color of charcoal. The proverbial needle in a haystack—only the needle is black, the hay is black, and the stack is the size of the inner solar system.
There's a relatively straightforward solution, however. Station a telescope near the orbit of Venus to expand its view, turn away from the glare of the sun, and look in the infrared, where the heat of an otherwise dark asteroid makes it easier to spot.
This is precisely the strategy behind B612s $450-million Sentinel telescope. The project is well underway and boasts a talented roster of deep space mission veterans. Ball Aerospace, the firm behind the Kepler Space Telescope and the optics in the James Webb Space Telescope (among other projects including Hubble), will build Sentinel.
Lu says the project's firmly in the "screw level" phase, and raising additional funds—the nonprofit depends on philanthropic contributions—is the most urgent need.
Provided all goes to plan, Sentinel will launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in 2018. The telescope will assume a Venus-like orbit and, looking back to Earth orbit, make repeated infrared observations of the sky in search of moving objects. The data will be sent to Earth, compiled in a public database, and used to calculate asteroid orbits.
According to B612, Sentinel could find over 20,000 new asteroids in its first month—more than all those found in the 30 years we've been looking. Over its 6.5-year mission (and it could be longer), the team believes they'll discover and catalog 90% of all asteroids bigger than 140 meters and many smaller asteroids down to 30 meters.
B612 is confident it can raise the funds to send Sentinel into space. Let's hope humanity proves itself more intelligent than the dinosaurs, for if we don't, we simply don't deserve a fate better than theirs.

Third Try a Charm for CO2 Satellite

NASA had the worst luck trying to launch satellites to study the sources and sinks for CO₂. The first two tries ended with the satellite crashing into the ocean after fairings (shrouds covering the satellite during launch) failed to separate properly.

Today, though, OCO-2 made the third try a charm:

The OCO-2 spacecraft deployed a pair of solar arrays on schedule to begin charging its batteries in orbit about an hour after the launch of the mission aboard a Delta II rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California.
NASA successfully launched its first spacecraft dedicated to studying atmospheric carbon dioxide at 2:56 a.m. PDT (5:56 a.m. EDT) Wednesday.
The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) raced skyward from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, on a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket. Approximately 56 minutes after the launch, the observatory separated from the rocket's second stage into an initial 690-kilometer orbit. The spacecraft then performed a series of activation procedures, established communications with ground controllers and unfurled its twin sets of solar arrays. Initial telemetry shows the spacecraft is in excellent condition.
OCO-2 soon will begin a minimum two-year mission to locate Earth's sources of and storage places for atmospheric carbon dioxide, the leading human-produced greenhouse gas responsible for warming our world and a critical component of the planet's carbon cycle.
"Climate change is the challenge of our generation," said NASA Administrator Charles Bolden. "With OCO-2 and our existing fleet of satellites, NASA is uniquely qualified to take on the challenge of documenting and understanding these changes, predicting the ramifications, and sharing information about these changes for the benefit of society."
OCO-2 will take NASA's studies of carbon dioxide and the global carbon cycle to new heights. The mission will produce the most detailed picture to date of natural sources of carbon dioxide, as well as their "sinks" -- places on Earth's surface where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. The observatory will study how these sources and sinks are distributed around the globe and how they change over time.
"This challenging mission is both timely and important," said Michael Freilich, director of the Earth Science Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. "OCO-2 will produce exquisitely precise measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations near Earth's surface, laying the foundation for informed policy decisions on how to adapt to and reduce future climate change."
Carbon dioxide sinks are at the heart of a longstanding scientific puzzle that has made it difficult for scientists to accurately predict how carbon dioxide levels will change in the future and how those changing concentrations will affect Earth's climate.
"Scientists currently don't know exactly where and how Earth's oceans and plants have absorbed more than half the carbon dioxide that human activities have emitted into our atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial era," said David Crisp, OCO-2 science team leader at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. "Because of this we cannot predict precisely how these processes will operate in the future as climate changes. For society to better manage carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere, we need to be able to measure the natural source and sink processes."
Precise measurements of the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide are needed because background levels vary by less than two percent on regional to continental scales. Typical changes can be as small as one-third of one percent. OCO-2 measurements are designed to measure these small changes clearly.
During the next 10 days, the spacecraft will go through a checkout process and then begin three weeks of maneuvers that will place it in its final 705-kilometer, near-polar operational orbit at the head of the international Afternoon Constellation, or "A-Train," of Earth-observing satellites. The A-Train, the first multi-satellite, formation flying "super observatory" to record the health of Earth's atmosphere and surface environment, collects an unprecedented quantity of nearly simultaneous climate and weather measurements.
OCO-2 science operations will begin about 45 days after launch. Scientists expect to begin archiving calibrated mission data in about six months and plan to release their first initial estimates of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in early 2015.
The observatory will uniformly sample the atmosphere above Earth's land and waters, collecting more than 100,000 precise individual measurements of carbon dioxide over Earth's entire sunlit hemisphere every day. Scientists will use these data in computer models to generate maps of carbon dioxide emission and uptake at Earth's surface on scales comparable in size to the state of Colorado. These regional-scale maps will provide new tools for locating and identifying carbon dioxide sources and sinks.
OCO-2 also will measure a phenomenon called solar-induced fluorescence, an indicator of plant growth and health. As plants photosynthesize and take up carbon dioxide, they fluoresce and give off a tiny amount of light that is invisible to the naked eye. Because more photosynthesis translates into more fluorescence, fluorescence data from OCO-2 will help shed new light on the uptake of carbon dioxide by plants
OCO-2 is a NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder Program mission managed by JPL for NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington. Orbital Sciences Corporation in Dulles, Virginia, built the spacecraft bus and provides mission operations under JPL's leadership. The science instrument was built by JPL, based on the instrument design co-developed for the original OCO mission by Hamilton Sundstrand in Pomona, California. NASA's Launch Services Program at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida is responsible for launch management. Communications during all phases of the mission are provided by NASA's Near Earth Network, with contingency support from the Space Network. Both are divisions of the Space Communications and Navigation program at NASA Headquarters. JPL is managed for NASA by the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena.

Free Energy To Get $7.7 Trillion Investment

EE News reports:
Global adoption of renewable energy shows no signs of slowing over the next 15 years, with nearly two-thirds of an expected $7.7 trillion in new investment going toward non-fossil power generation, according to new projections by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
In particular, major additions of solar and wind energy will continue to displace coal as a primary source of power generation across many of the world's largest economies, while shale gas will remain a key factor in U.S. energy markets at least through 2024, BNEF said in the latest "2030 Market Outlook," released this morning.
Overall, fossil fuels are expected to lose 20 percentage points in their market share over the next 16 years from 64 percent of global generation in 2013 to 44 percent in 2030, a decline driven mainly by the contraction of coal-fired power in developed countries, the analysis found.
"By 2030, the world's power mix will have transformed: from today's system with two-thirds fossil fuels to one with over half from zero-emission energy sources," Bloomberg analysts said in the report, which relies on modeling of electricity market supply and demand, technology costs, and policy development in regions and countries around the world.

Tuesday, July 01, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The broad market outperforms, but for how much longer?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

3D-Printed Organs Will Solve Many Problems

Patrick Cox in Bio-Printing Transplantable Tissues, Organs: Another Step Closer writes:
Researchers have made a giant leap towards the goal of bio-printing' transplantable tissues and organs for people affected by major diseases and trauma injuries, a new study reports.
Scientists from the Universities of Sydney, Harvard, Stanford, and MIT have bio-printed artificial vascular networks mimicking the body's circulatory system that are necessary for growing large complex tissues. "Thousands of people die each year due to a lack of organs for transplantation," says study lead author and University of Sydney researcher, Dr. Luiz Bertassoni. "Many more are subjected to the surgical removal of tissues and organs due to cancer, or they're involved in accidents with large fractures and injuries. "Imagine being able to walk into a hospital and have a full organ printed—or bio-printed, as we call it—with all the cells, proteins and blood vessels in the right place, simply by pushing the print' button in your computer screen.
Read more here.

Emerging Market Stocks and Islamic Extremism

Emerging Market Stocks and Islamic Extremism

By By Mark Galasiewski, editor of Elliott Wave International's monthly Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast

We have for many years observed a relationship between extremism and bear markets in the stock markets of Muslim nations. For example, this chart shows the deadliest Islamic terrorist attacks graphed against the MSCI Emerging Markets Index since the start of the index on December 31, 1987. Notice that many the attacks occurred near lows in the index.

Islamic extremist groups are mainly based in four of the five regions that make up the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Those regions are Africa, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia. (Latin America is the exception.) Our April 2014 Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast showed how stock markets in these five regions have generally followed a similar pattern in recent decades. So the MSCI Emerging Markets Index serves as a good proxy for stock markets in Islamic nations collectively -- and their lows in particular. The chart suggests that the extreme negative sentiment toward the ends of major corrections has influenced the timing of the deadliest Islamic terrorist incidents over the past 25 years.

Terrorist incidents have become a fact of contemporary life in many nations to such a degree that many smaller attacks have no correlation to the index. However, our study focuses on the largest incidents by number of people killed. It also excludes Iraq, where the sectarian violence has been ongoing for about a decade now and shows no consistent relationship to the emerging markets index. It also finds one exception, the 2004 Madrid train bombings (No. 8 on the chart), which occurred near a peak in the index.

The most violent Islamist group by far during the correction in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of the past few years has been Boko Haram of Nigeria. The group turned violent following the 2009 lows in global markets and has accelerated its campaign of violence in recent years. The Wall Street Journal reports that the group has killed 7,000 people over the past two years alone, citing data from the Council on Foreign Relations. As we go to press (June 6), the group still holds hostage more than 275 schoolgirls it kidnapped in April and May.

Boko Haram's most lethal individual attacks followed the 2011 and 2014 lows in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The group slaughtered at least 300 people in a town in the Nigerian state of Borno in early May 2014 and, as we go to press, has reportedly killed hundreds more people in another large attack in the state.

As with other large-degree Islamic terrorist attacks, these most recent attacks appear to have marked the end of a significant correction in emerging markets overall, including emerging Asian markets.


Read more from EWI's international markets expert,
Mark Galasiewski.

On March 23, 2009, Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast Editor Mark Galasiewski issued a special interim report to alert subscribers to an amazing opportunity -- the start of a bull market in India that would likely last around 15 years. See how he made such a stunning forecast more than five years ago -- when we were in the depths of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Access this free report now >>

Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Do we get to see Window Undressing as well?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

The Rise of the Prosumer

SunPower CEO Tom Werner is betting on a future grid filled with solar and batteries, and believes the shift will be even more dramatic for a subset of consumers: "In the next five years, customers are going to decide what they pay the utility," he said.
It's clear that a surge in distributed technologies that empower the customer -- creating so-called "prosumers" — are set to throw the traditional power delivery model into disarray. But predicting where the utility-customer relationship is headed is still a guessing game.

Sunday, June 29, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Which index sports a PE Ratio of 84.14?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Recession Indicator

In John Mauldin's latest Thoughts From the Front Line, we have this thought from Rich Yamarone (aka Darth Vader):
According to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, there has never been a time in history that year-over-year gross domestic income has been at its current pace (2.6 percent) without the U.S. economy ultimately falling into recession. That’s more than 50 years of history, which is about as good as one could ever hope for in an economic indicator.

The Rise of Renewables

A few facts put the astounding rise of renewable energy in perspective.
  • Over the past five years, solar generating capacity has increased 16 times.
  • Austin Energy signed a power purchase agreement to buy solar energy at a price considerably lower than any competing energy source (less than 5¢/kWh).
  • Solar is such a strong competitor that coal companies are going bankrupt.
  • Electric utilities may never recover their investment in fossil fuel generating facilities. Wall Street firms are warning investors not to buy utility bonds.
  • A new solar thermal plant in Nevada will produce electricity night and day via an energy storage component, eliminating the biggest argument against solar—that it's intermittent.
  • Coal plant subsidies are in danger of elimination while solar subsidies are being phased out. A level playing field favors solar substantially more than fossil fuels. At the same time, coal is being forced to pay for its pollution for the first time in history.
  • In 2009 the Energy Information Administration predicted that it would take more than two decades for USA wind capacity to reach 40 gigawatts. It has already passed 60 gigawatts.
  • The cost of solar photovoltaic panels has dropped more than 99% in the last 40 years, from $75 per watt to 60¢ per watt. The trend will continue until solar panels are as ubiquitous as smart phones.
  • A new solar power system is now installed on an American roof every three minutes.
  • The boom in solar is turning families and business owners into prosumers who sell electricity back to the utilities, upending their business models and threatening to eventually push them into bankruptcy.
  • NRG Energy CEO David Crane says the utilities are dinosaurs, clinging to obsolete business models. “They’re fighting a classic rearguard action against the inevitable conquest of clean distributed energy,” he says. “But when you have something better and cheaper, it can go viral fast.”
The net result: electricity bills will be dropping over time.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Behind the Scenes at Planetary Resources (Video)

Peter Diamandis gives us a peek in the Planetary Resources lab in Redmond, Washington, at a spacecraft which will explore the solar system at a cost that's two orders of magnitude lower:

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today, a look at what the NASDAQ is telling us right now.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Inside Look: Check out this Unprecedented Bear Market Formation Since 2000

Inside Look: Check out this Unprecedented Bear Market Formation Since 2000
Think the current conditions in the stock market are normal? Think again. Here are 3 characteristics you should expect to see in wave b.

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's Note: Below you will find a sneak peek from the just-published issue of Robert Prechter's Theorist. It provides you an opportunity to see some of the research, analysis and forecasts that Elliott Wave International's subscribers are enjoying inside their latest issue.

Figure 4 (below) is a diagram from Chapter 2 of Elliott Wave Principle. It displays a typical progression of prices and psychology in a bear market. We can apply this picture to the stock market since 2000. The real-life pattern is a bit more complex than this picture, because wave a itself was a flat correction, which ended in 2009. The dashed line in Figure 4 represents what the market has been doing since then: rallying to a new high in a b-wave. The entire formation has been tracing out an "expanded flat" correction (see text, p.47) of Supercycle degree.

Per Figure 4, among the characteristics we should expect to see in wave b are: "Technically weak," "Aggressive euphoria and denial" and "Fundamentals weaken subtly." The volume contraction in the stock market has now lasted over five years, which is extreme technical weakness, albeit only in that indicator. The 30+ charts we have shown of market sentiment reveal historically high levels of optimism regarding stocks. No doubt bulls would dismiss the idea that investors today exhibit "aggressive euphoria and denial." But look at Figure 5.

It shows that the yield on junk bonds has just reached its lowest level ever. Junk bonds did not even exist prior to 1989. In 2009, investors were deathly afraid of them. Now they cannot get enough of them. They are thinking only about yield; they are ignoring risk to principal. That's denial. Finally, fundamentals have not just weakened a bit but rather are awful. The economy is flat, the amount of debt is at a record high, and as shown in the June issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast the quality of debt is at a record low.

There has never been an expanded flat pattern as large as Supercycle degree in recorded stock market history, going back 300 years. It's a first. So, we are getting commensurate expressions of stupendous optimism, which will prove worthy of the record books. People think today's market conditions are normal, because a benign present is always considered normal. But it's not normal. It's unprecedented.

Would you like to see the rest of the issue for free? For more details, the complete wave count, and EWI's forecast for how they believe it will all play out, continue reading Prechter's 10-page June Theorist now, completely risk-free. Learn more here.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Inside Look: Check out this Unprecedented Bear Market Formation Since 2000. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Fourth of July Holiday Schedule for Globex Equity Futures

Here's the upcoming holiday schedule for the futures (all times are EDT):

Thursday, July 3: Early close at 13:15. Regular opening at 18:00 for trade date Monday, July 7th.

Friday, July 4: Early close at 13:00.

Sunday, July 6: Regular opening at 18:00 for trade date Monday, July 7th.

The Disconnect Between the Stock Market and the Economy

Andrew Smithers explains the disconnect between the stock market and the economy in his FT.com blog (free registration required):
The declared aim of modern pay structures is to align the interests of management and shareholders. The result has been the opposite. Modern incentives have increased the difference between the short-term interests of management and the long-term interests of shareholders. This is because the value of bonuses and options depends on the volatility of the profits to which they are related rather than their growth. Modern incentive structures are thus contrary to the interests of long-term shareholders, if not necessarily of those investors who share the short-term time horizon of managers ...
In neither the UK nor the US is productivity likely to recover unless its cause is understood, and the lack of public debate is holding back understanding. The management incentives that we have today, at least in Anglophone economies, are perverse. They are contrary to both the long-term interests of shareholders and to the current health and long-term growth potential of the economy. This will continue until the incentives are changed and they will not be changed until the issue is understood. The first step to doing this is to get the problem widely discussed.
This is the reason why stocks continue to advance while the economy has fallen back into recession. And, you know it's not going to end well. We've had two 50% or more “corrections” since 2000. The next one is going to be much bigger.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Solar Rising Fast in California

Solar is becoming ever more dominant in California. At this point, it's a trend that cannot be ignored. And, once storage becomes economical (it will in the next couple of years), solar will accelerate into an exponential uptrend in usage. The following chart from EIA illustrates just how much the solar component in midday electrical energy is growing:


Note: This graph does not include off-grid solar, which is estimated to be about 700 MW of power.

Economy Still in Recession

Well, it's getting really hard for government to continue to pull the wool over citizens' eyes: the economy remains in recession. The latest report from the government shows that the economy is shrinking at a -3% rate.

Over the last couple of decades, the truth is that the economy has spent most of its time in recession. The government lies about the rate of inflation, which has the effect of turning a decline into an advance when you do the math. But, when the downturn gets too strong, even the government backs off its lies. Apparently, we have reached that point now.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Apex spike reversal today came in like clockwork.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, June 23, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The market bellwether continues to climb as money flow hits new highs.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

The Cold Truth About Coal vs. Solar

The cold, hard truth about coal is that it simply cannot compete pricewise with solar.

The latest confirmation comes from Utah, which heretofore has relied upon cheap coal to produce its electricity. The latest power purchase agreements in the state show that the price of electricity from solar is now at grid parity in the Beehive State. And, prices are not going to stop going down—if anything, solar prices are accelerating to the downside.

Read more here.

Study: Concentrated Solar Plants Could Meet 80% Energy Needs

In a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, Stellenbosch University, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) have calculated for the first time that connecting ‘concentrating solar power’ (CSP) plants could supply a significant amount of current electricity demand, alleviating concerns over the reliability and intermittency of renewable power.

CSP technology uses mirrors to reflect and concentrate light from the sun, which it converts into heat to power a turbine and produce electricity.

Of course, what we really need is cheap storage. Combine that with micro-grids connected on the Energy Internet and we have a winning combination that replaces fossil fuels the old-fashioned way—it undercuts them in price!

Read more here.

The Coming Climate Crash

By: Henry M. Paulson Jr.

The New York Times

Sunday, June 22, 2014

THERE is a time for weighing evidence and a time for acting. And if there’s one thing I’ve learned throughout my work in finance, government and conservation, it is to act before problems become too big to manage.

For too many years, we failed to rein in the excesses building up in the nation’s financial markets. When the credit bubble burst in 2008, the damage was devastating. Millions suffered. Many still do.

We’re making the same mistake today with climate change. We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

This is a crisis we can’t afford to ignore. I feel as if I’m watching as we fly in slow motion on a collision course toward a giant mountain. We can see the crash coming, and yet we’re sitting on our hands rather than altering course.

Continue reading here.

Sunday, June 22, 2014

Global Warming Alarmist Call Comes True

From Heatstroke: Nature in an Age of Global Warming by Anthony D. Barnosky :
[A] major hurricane . . . coming out of the Caribbean ... of near-record intensity ... [would] ... hit ... with storm tides as high as 4 meters (12 feet), bringing devastation.... Advance warning and prompt evacuation [would] keep loss of life to less than a hundred, but property damage [would be] in excess of $1 billions.
That was a scenario offered by climatologist Stephen Schneider in a book he published in 1989 to raise awareness on the climate change issue. Think of Schneider as the Bob Dylan of climate science. Just as Dylan was writing songs and rousing the civil rights crowds in the 197os, Schneider was studying how to calculate the probabilities of specific kinds of climate events, and reaching out to policy makers with his conclusion: namely, that global warming was a threat whose effects would become increasingly evident in the next couple of generations. And, just as Dylan worked his crowds in the ensuing decades, so did Schneider in congressional halls and meeting rooms where national climate policy was discussed at the highest levels, such as at that Senate committee hearing in 1988.
Seventeen years later, in fact, Schneider's scenario proved overly optimistic. The prediction was pretty close on the storm tides (4.3 meters versus 4), but when Hurricane Katrina destroyed New Orleans (not to mention entire communities in Mississippi), there was no prompt evacuation, nearly 2,000 people were killed, and property damage was in excess of $81 billion-all from that one storm. Debate ensued in the scientific literature as to whether or not the record number of hurricanes that year-28-was attributable to global warming, but a couple of facts were indisputable: warmer ocean waters fuel more-extreme storms, and the ocean, as well as the rest of the earth, had been getting on average warmer and warmer for five decades, and especially the preceding decade. The ten warmest years that thermometers had ever measured occurred from 1990 to 2005. While there were some year-to-year ups and downs, on average each year was successively warmer than the last, with 1998 claiming the dubious honor of the hottest year ever known, and 2002, 2003, and 2001 taking second, third, and fourth place, respectively. In short, by 2005 global warming had not only arrived, it had literally taken the world by storm and had given us a dramatic sneak preview of what to expect from a different Earth.

Obama Fights The Only Good War: The War on Climate Change (Video)

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. The diver has climbed the ladder and is contemplating the waters far below.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A seasonal high appears to represent an inversion of the market.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

RMI: Going Big on Solar (Video)

This video from Rocky Mountain Institute explains how we're driving the costs of installing solar much lower:

Your Future As a Prosumer Looks Very Bright

A prosumer is both a consumer and a producer. In terms of energy, an prosumer generates energy as well as consumes it. If they generate more energy than they can utilize, they sell the excess to whomever needs energy. While the buildout of the Energy Internet is still in the future, those consumers who purchase solar arrays will be able to turn a tidy return on their investment in the future when it will be easy to earn a living by selling energy.

Some have raised questions about whether or not the average consumer would want to deal with the complications of running their own energy company in their homes. Similar questions were raised about new tech products in the past:

  • Refrigerators were a new technology in the past. Many thought that having blocks of ice delivered to their homes would make owning a refrigerator undesirable—but, they were wrong.
  • TV was a new technology in the early Twentieth Century. Many thought that radio and going out to the theater were superior to TV. But, once again, the naysayers were wrong.
  • Computers once needed huge rooms with massive air conditioners to operate. Most thought that no one in their right mind would ever want a computer in their home. Today, we carry around computers a million times more capable in our pockets.
  • Many more products were considered impractical, yet today, they occupy a valued place in our lives.

The age of owning your own utility plant right in your home is here. Oh, it's much more expensive today than it will be in the future, so you might want to wait for prices to come down. They're already plummeting, but that's just the beginning. They're on a long slide toward near zero marginal cost. In Hawai'i, solar beats grid energy on a non-subsidized price basis and that situation will be the norm within a few years everywhere in the USA.

Don't wait too long, though. After you've installed solar-plus-storage, the system will have paid for itself in just a few years. After that, you'll be generating energy at near zero marginal cost, but selling it to the Energy Internet at a nice profit.

A huge leap forward in storage technology is coming on the scene in the next couple of years. When that happens, there will be a land rush by consumers to buy it and become prosumers, generating profits from the sun every day.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Our favorite spread has an inverted trend now.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Coal-free By 2016

Climate Progress reports that the electric utility serving El Paso will be coal-free by 2016:
Thanks to new investments in natural gas and utility-scale solar energy, El Paso Electric, a Texas utility with nearly 400,000 customers, announced on Monday that its electricity mix will be free from coal by 2016.
Thanks to successive investments in large solar projects, EPE has doubled its utility-scale solar portfolio in less than one year. "Our west Texas and southern New Mexico region has the right kind of sun for optimal solar energy production, making this region the goldilocks' in terms of climate, humidity and heat characteristics that allow us to expand our renewable portfolio with cost-effective technologies and reliable energy resources," said Tom Shockley, Chief Executive Officer at El Paso Electric, said in a statement.
The utility signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with the massive Macho Springs solar plant in New Mexico, a 50 megawatt (MW) facility with the capacity to power more than 18,000 homes. According to the agreement, signed last year, EPE would buy solar power from Macho Springs for 5.79 cents a kilowatt-hour — less than half the 12.8 cents per kilowatt-hour average price for electricity from new coal plants, according to Bloomberg.
In February, EPE signed a 30-year power purchase agreement with Newman Solar to build a 10 MW solar facility in El Paso that is expected to come online by the end of 2014 and power an additional 3,800 homes.
Deciding "it is in the best interest of its 395,000 customers," EPE plans to sell off its seven percent stake in the Four Corners coal plant, located on Navajo Nation land near Farmington, New Mexico. The plant came in at number 15 on Environment America's list of the nation's top 100 dirtiest power plants, emitting 13.8 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year.
Of course, a significant portion of EPE's electricity is derived from natural gas and the utility came under fire last year for its proposal to build a new natural gas power plant in a low-income neighborhood. The company agreed not to expand beyond the four planned units and will establish a fund for residents to improve the energy efficiency of their homes. "While we wish the plant was not in our neighborhood, we are very pleased with the settlement agreement, particularly EPE's agreement not to build additional turbines and possibly install solar panels at the plant," Ralph Carrasco, the citizens group's executive director, said in a statement.
El Paso Energy's announcement that it is "well-positioned" for the Environmental Protection Agency's new regulations aimed at cutting the carbon pollution from the nation's existing fossil fuel-fired power plants came on the same day Texas governor Rick Perry joined eight other Republican governors saying the rule will cost millions of jobs and slow economic growth. Such claims, trumpeted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, among others, have been widely debunked.
Texas is the top carbon emitter in the country and, as the Texas Tribune points out, "Texas officials and politicians have long refused to regulate greenhouse gases." However, the regulations will have a less dramatic effect on Texas than on other states that rely more heavily on coal, particularly considering the state already has a diverse electricity mix. "In 2013, natural gas (41 percent) outpaced coal (37 percent) in powering the electric grid covering most of the state," the Tribune reported, citing the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. "Meanwhile, the state's wind sector (10 percent) is booming, thanks in large part to multibillion-dollar investments in infrastructure under Perry, while shifting economics has increased interest in Texas' long-untapped solar power potential."