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Tuesday, May 05, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Volatility within a range continues. It's a sign of a long term top building in equities.

Monday, May 04, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The progression and divergences continue as equities may have entered a bear market.

Going Off-Grid in Hawaii

Electricity from the local utility in Hawaii is so expensive that customers can save money by cutting the cord. According to Siddharth Dalal, SolarCity Fires Warning Shot At Hawaii Utility: The Future Is Here:
As the Tesla Gigafactory progresses and prices drop further, it will make solar plus storage a very compelling solution. Any utilities making noises about eliminating net metering will soon have to face a behind-the-meter solution that will significantly reduce consumption from the utility and the utility will lose the solar power provided by the consumer.
It is a lose-lose proposition for the utility. For places like Hawaii, where power is very expensive and the utility was delaying solar connections to the grid, going off grid is now a viable proposition. Maybe they knew exactly what was coming when they approved all the delayed applications recently. Now SolarCity has fired their first warning shot directly at the Hawaiian utility inviting customers to go off grid starting next year.

Sunday, May 03, 2015

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. When projective indicators disagree, coincident ones shine.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The downtrend continues into our projected cyclic low date in May.

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The market takes no prisoners as bears have been having trouble getting the downtrend rolling.

US Economy Likely Mired in Recession Now

Today's government report of First Quarter GDP growth should be taken with a large helping of salt. That's because the government has a horrible record at tracking the economy.

For instance, in 2008, with the economy a half-year into the worst recession since the Great Depression, the government reported the economy was growing at a +0.6% rate. After numerous revisions over the next 64 months, they finally decided that the economy was declining at a -2.7% rate!

That's why the government's report that the economy grew in the first quarter could just as easily be revised to a huge decline over the next 64 months. As it is, the government tells us that GDP was growing at a +0.25% rate. Garbage in, garbage out.

China's Stock Market Bubble

Harry Dent calls it what it is in The Curse Of The 'Mini' Bubble: China's Period Of Worsening News.

As you can see, we've hit a ceiling on the trendline connecting the 2005 and 2008 bear market lows:

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is Wall Street engineering a panic to forestall the Fed's raising rates?

Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The troops continue the retreat while the generals advance in the face of enemy fire.

The Real War on the Middle Class

By Ron Paul

One of the great ironies of American politics is that most politicians who talk about helping the middle class support policies that, by expanding the welfare-warfare state, are harmful to middle-class Americans. Eliminating the welfare-warfare state would benefit middle-class Americans by freeing them from exorbitant federal taxes, including the Federal Reserve’s inflation tax.

Politicians serious about helping middle-class Americans should allow individuals to opt out of Social Security and Medicare by not having to pay payroll taxes if they agree to never accept federal retirement or health care benefits. Individuals are quite capable of meeting their own unique retirement and health care needs if the government stops forcing them into one-size-fits-all plans.

Middle-class families with college-age children would benefit if government got out of the student loan business. Government involvement in higher education is the main reason tuition is skyrocketing and so many Americans are graduating with huge student loan debts. College graduates entering the job market would certainly benefit if Congress stopped imposing destructive regulations and taxes on the economy.

Politicians who support an interventionist foreign policy are obviously not concerned with the harm inflicted on the middle-class populations of countries targeted for regime change. These politicians also disregard the harm US foreign policy inflicts on Americans. Middle- and working-class Americans, and their families, who join the military certainly suffer when they are maimed or killed fighting in unjust and unconstitutional wars. Our interventionist foreign policy also contributes to the high tax burden imposed on middle-class Americans.

Middle-class Americans also suffer from intrusions on their liberty and privacy, such as not being able to board an airplane unless they submit to invasive and humiliating searches. Even children and the physically disabled are not safe from the Transposition Security Administration. These assaults are justified by the threat of terrorism, a direct result of our interventionist foreign policy that fosters hatred and resentment of Americans.

Some “military Keynesians” claim that middle-class workers benefit from jobs in the military-industrial complex. Military Keynesians seem to think that the resources spent on militarism would disappear if the Pentagon’s budget were cut. The truth is, if we reduced spending on militarism, those currently employed by the military-industrial complex would be able to find new jobs producing goods desired by consumers. Even those currently employed as lobbyists for the military-industrial complex may be able to find useful work.

Few things would benefit the middle class more than ending the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies erode middle-class families’ standards of living while benefiting the financial and political elites. Middle-class Americans may gain some temporary benefits from Federal Reserve created booms, but they also suffer from the inevitable busts.

As I write this, the dollar still reigns as the world’s reserve currency. However, there are signs that other economies are moving away from using the dollar as the reserve currency, and this trend will accelerate as the Federal Reserve continues to pump more fiat currency into the economy and as resentment toward our foreign policy grows. Eventually, international investors will lose confidence in the US economy, the dollar will lose its reserve currency status, and the dollar bubble will burst.

These events will cause a major economic downturn that may even be worse than the Great Depression. The main victims of this crisis will be average Americans. The only way to avoid this calamity is for the American people to force Congress to free them from the burdens of the warfare state, the welfare state, taxation, and fiat currency.
Copyright © 2015 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
Please donate to the Ron Paul Institute

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Troops retreating while generals advance. Where have we seen this before?

Saturday, April 25, 2015

The Shape of Things To Come

Some of the critical climate issues that need to be headed off within the next 20 to 30 years if massive impacts are to be avoided:
  • The loss of all summer sea ice in the Arctic;
  • The large-scale triggering of the melt of peri-Arctic permafrost (likely irreversible once started);
  • The mobilisation of the melt of Arctic ocean permafrost and clathrates;
  • The melt, destabilisation and loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet;
  • The destruction of the bulk of the world's coral reefs;
  • The acidification of the Arctic Ocean and the Southern Ocean to the point where organisms with calcified shells cannot survive;
  • The flooding and disruption of the small island states;
  • The spread of the Sahara into Southern Europe and the Middle East and the large-scale extension of many desert systems globally;
  • The large-scale conversion of the Amazon forest to grasslands;
  • A severe ramping up of extreme weather events;
  • Extreme food shortages;
  • Very large-scale refugee movements; and
  • Serious risk of climate wars.

Source: Safe Climate Restoration Scenarios

Traitors In Charge of the USA Cutting Research Funding

The USA won't fall to terrorists. No, the USA is being destroyed from within by traitors in charge.

Don't believe it? Just read the latest report from MIT entitled “The Future Postponed: Why Declining Investment in Basic Research Threatens a U.S. Innovation Deficit" to be released Monday, April 27th.

KurzweilAI reports:

U.S. competitors are increasing their investment in basic research. The European Space Agency successfully landed the first spacecraft on a comet. China developed the world’s fastest supercomputer and has done research in plant biology uncovering new ways to meet global food demand and address malnutrition. Meanwhile, U.S. investment in basic plant-related research and development is far below that of many other scientific disciplines, despite the fact that the agricultural sector is responsible for more than 2 million U.S. jobs and is a major source of export earnings.

The report, entitled “The Future Postponed: Why Declining Investment in Basic Research Threatens a U.S. Innovation Deficit,” highlights opportunities in basic research that could help shape and maintain U.S. economic power and benefit society.

In the report, MIT faculty members provide examples of critical fields in which investment is required, highlighting potential opportunities and areas where U.S. government support is needed. The authors explain that the FDA has approved 19 new cancer drugs in the past two years, thanks to more than four decades of basic research on the biology of cancer.

The report was prepared by the MIT Committee to Evaluate the Innovation Deficit to examine how research cutbacks will affect the future of scientific research in the U.S.

Delusional Human Race Doomed to Extinction

As we all know, the human race is delusional. We push asset prices in the stock market to the sky and never expect them to collapse. Yet, in the last 15 years, that has happened twice. Why would we expect the third time to avoid a collapse?

But, crashing stock markets are just a minor blip on the radar compared to Climate Change. The deniers have kept us from taking any meaningful action to avoid a collapse of life on this planet. It may be too late to avoid that collapse right now.

The politicians have set an unreasonable goal for warming—2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. That goal, which we are not on target to stay below, may actually be too high to avoid catastrophe. At the present time, with temperatures having warmed by just below 1°C so far, we are seeing Arctic ice gradually disappear, superstorms like Sandy hitting northern latitudes, seas rising and flooding coastal communities, and many more. The effects are obvious. They are facts, not debatable. Yet we have done nothing to stop Global Warming. It's as if we're in a car racing down the highway with no working brakes.

David Spratt makes it clear what action we should be taking:

The catastrophic and irreversible consequences of 2°C of warming demand a strong risk-management approach, with a low rate of failure. We should not take risks with the climate that we would not take with civil infrastructure.

There is no carbon budget available if 2°C is considered a cap or upper boundary as per the Copenhagen Accord, rather than a hit-or-miss target which can be significantly exceeded; or if a low risk of exceeding 2°C is required; or if positive feedbacks such as permafrost and other carbon store losses are taken into account.

Effective policy making can only be based on recognising that climate change is already dangerous, and we have no carbon budget left to divide up. Big tipping-point events irreversible on human time scales such as in West Antarctica and large-scale positive feedbacks are already occurring at less than 1°C of warming. It is clear that 2°C of climate warming is not a safe cap.

In reality, 2°C is the boundary between dangerous and very dangerous climate change and 1°C warmer than human civilisation has ever experienced.

In the lead up to the forthcoming Paris talks, policy makers through their willful neglect of the evidence are in effect normalising a 2.5–3°C global warming target.

This evidence in "Recount: It's time to 'Do the math' again" demonstrates that action is necessary at a faster pace than most policy makers conceive is possible.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Why Renewables Can’t Be Stopped

Energy Gang podcast this week:

In 2014, after a two-year dip in global clean energy spending, the world saw a record $310 billion invested in solar, wind, storage and energy efficiency.

Although yearly investment levels are still below what IEA estimates are needed to address climate change, the increase shows that appetite for funding projects and companies is increasing. Some say the investment figures prove that fossil fuels in the electricity sector have already lost the long-term race to renewables.

This week, we’ll talk with Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, about what the global numbers tell us.

Then, we’ll look at how renewables are factoring into the upcoming parliamentary elections in the U.K.

Finally, we’ll talk about why the White House’s Quadrennial Energy Review is so important for planning the future grid.

Making Batteries Obsolete: Why Tesla's Gigafactory is Doomed To Fail

The future is in capacitors, not batteries. By the time the Tesla Gigafactory is up and running, it will be obsolete.

The future will see capacitors replace batteries everywhere. A hint of what's coming is given by the fact that researchers at UCSD have tripled the capacity of graphene in Charged holes in graphene increase energy storage capacity:

Engineers at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD) have discovered a method to increase the amount of electric charge that can be stored in graphene, a two-dimensional form of carbon, which could increase battery storage capacity.

The research, published in the journal Nano Letters, may provide a better understanding of how to improve the energy storage ability (energy density) of capacitors for potential uses in cars, wind turbines, and solar power. Capacitors charge and discharge very fast (have high power density), so they are useful for quick large bursts of energy, such as in camera flashes, but they store less energy than batteries.

Punching holes in graphene

The industrially viable solution to increasing charge capacity, found in the lab of mechanical engineering professor Prabhakar Bandaru at the Jacobs School of Engineering at UCSD, was to take advantage of defects — holes corresponding to missing carbon atoms — in graphene material.

To do that, the team used argon-ion based plasma processing to bombard graphene samples with positively charged argon ions. That knocked out carbon atoms, leaving behind “holes” containing positive charges, which increased the capacitance of the materials three-fold. These “armchair” and “zigzag” defects are named based on the configurations of the missing carbon atoms.

Why 2 of U.S. Dollar's Recent Bottoms Have 1 Thing In Common

Why 2 of U.S. Dollar's Recent Bottoms Have 1 Thing In Common
In 2009 and 2014, a simple chart pattern enabled us to turn bullish the dollar, just in time for HUGE rallies. Learn to use this pattern now.

By Elliott Wave International

Imagine you're on an airplane, mid-air, when the intercom from the cockpit accidentally turns on. You and the entire cabin crew overhear the pilot say this to his copilot:

"I know we're heading northeast at 430 mph. But... I have no idea when or where I'm supposed to land."

That's when you cough up your bag of peanuts!

Dramatic? Sure. Imaginary? Yes. But it also highlights the real limits of mainstream financial analysis, which has no trouble identifying the current trend in a financial market -- but has little idea as to when or where that trend will end.

This is where the Wave Principle really can help you. Elliott wave analysis recognizes about a dozen distinct price patterns in financial markets. Each pattern conforms to clear, objective rules and guidelines that help you -- the investor or trader -- determine,

  1. Exact price levels where each wave should end
  2. Fibonacci price levels to help you further fine-tune price targets
  3. Support and resistance price levels -- to manage your risk
  4. And, ultimately, where the entire pattern will end -- and the next opportunity will begin

One Elliott wave pattern above all else signals the trend will soon end: the aptly named, Ending Diagonal. It only forms in the final position of a wave sequence -- i.e., wave 5 of a 5-wave impulse, or wave C of a correction, just as the trend is about to turn.

Most importantly, when this pattern ends, it's followed by a swift and powerful reversal that retraces the entire length of the diagonal. Here's an idealized depiction, in bull and bear markets:

To fully appreciate the wonder of ending diagonals you have to see them in a real-world market -- like the U.S. dollar, where this pattern precipitated not one, but two of the most dramatic turning points in the buck's recent history.

First, 2009, the year the music of the world's main monetary unit was supposed to die:

  1. The U.S. dollar circles the drain of a 15-month low
  2. Global central banks accumulate the lowest proportion of new U.S. dollar reserves on record (Nov. 6, 2009 Time Magazine)
  3. And, the UN calls for a "new global currency to replace the dollar, proposing the biggest overhaul of the world's monetary system since World War II." (Sept. 8, 2009 Telegraph.co.uk)

Lo and behold, all the mainstream "pilots" could see was the dollar's descent continuing into total oblivion:

"Dollar Slump Persisting As Top Analysts See No Bottom... As long as the Fed maintains interest rates at historical lows, the EUR-USD should return on a bullish trend." (Nov. 23, 2009 Reuters)

Of course, you know that the Fed has kept interest rates at the same low levels, near zero, since 2009, for 6 long years -- yet EURUSD did the opposite of what the mainstream pundits expected.

On the other hand, thanks to the ending diagonal Elliott wave pattern, you knew of the coming bullish reversal in the dollar/ bearish reversal in the EURUSD ahead of time. Elliott Wave International's October 21, 2009 Short Term Update wrote:

"The [U.S. Dollar Index] still has not 'spiked beneath 74.92, the lower trendline of the fifth-wave ending diagonal that we've been discussing. Absent this price behavior, a rally above 77.48 would be another signal that a significant low is in place. Until then, we patiently wait for the current wave structure to complete."

Reinforcing the bullish outlook was Elliott Wave International's October 2009 Elliott Wave Theorist (notice the ending diagonal on the dollar's price chart):

"The dollar sentiment remains bleak as night... and the wave count once again appears terminal. The coming advance in the dollar should be exceptionally powerful."

Result: As the ending diagonal pattern suggested, soon after the U.S. dollar index took off in a powerful rally to a one-year high against the euro.

Now, flash ahead to May 2014: Once again, U.S. dollar "doom talk" is back. Against the euro, the dollar stands at a 2.5 year low, near $1.40.

This time, Elliott Wave International's June 2014 European Financial Forecast saw a bearish ending diagonal on the EURUSD price chart, suggesting another greenback comeback ahead:

"The wave labels on the chart denote the pertinent legs of the rally...Wave C of (4) traced out an ending diagonal to complete the advance. Last month, prices broke below the diagonals lower boundary, confirming the end of the large degree rally. The decline should be the first of many down waves that carry the euro lower over the remainder of 2014."

Result: From that May 2014, the U.S. dollar soared (and the euro slid) in the fastest rise in 40 years, ascending to a 12-year high against its European foil by March 2015.

This is why ending diagonals are one of the most high-confidence Elliott wave patterns. But it's just one of many. Imagine how much knowing other patterns could help you with your markets.


Trader Education Week

Free "Trader Education Week"

Register now, 100% free, and get instant access to 3 insight-packed introductory trading lessons.

Then each day through April 28 we will email you more free trading lessons that you can apply to your trading immediately.

Register now, 100% free -- and access 3 intro lessons instantly >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Why 2 of U.S. Dollar's Recent Bottoms Have 1 Thing In Common. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Watch that next step down!

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds plunged today and boosted stocks, which is why we currently favor the third alternative.

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Volatility declines as the day of reckoning approaches.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We have two very significant turn dates ahead for equities.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Calm before the storm this week?

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Launch, Land and Re-Launch

SpaceX Launch You Up (Uptown Funk Parody) from Cinesaurus on Vimeo.

Solar Bonds

Solar City is offering bonds with up to a 5¾% yield based upon solar energy. They write:
Solar Bonds are open to everyone. They offer attractive returns and you can invest directly with no fees. Best of all, you’re helping to support the growth of clean solar energy.
It's yet another way to “Get Paid By the Sun.”

Thursday, April 16, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Watch that next step down: it could be a very big one.

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Internal deterioration in the stock market at new all-time highs bodes ill.

Professor Steve Keen on why the recovery is doomed

Why are we back in recession? Professor Steve Keen explains what economists in general simply don't understand:

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Running out of momentum, stocks could be in trouble very soon now.

Tech bubble: Different this time

Tech bubble: Different this time?

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: This article is from Elliott Wave International's brand-new investment report, "U.S. Investors Face a Giant, Historic Bubble." It originally appeared in the April issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, published March 27, 2015. For a limited-time, EWI has agreed to give our readers exclusive free access to the full report. Please click here to read it now.

In March, we covered the return to a popular fascination with technology.

The striking resemblance to 2000's technology mania is not going unnoticed. How can it? With the NASDAQ's much heralded return to 5000 and magazine covers proclaiming "Google Wants You To Live Forever," concern about an "asset bubble" is being raised. But this is actually another throwback to early March 2000, when the NASDAQ reached its all-time high and the Financial Forecast remarked on a "public ambivalence toward warnings of any kind."

The March issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist explains that while people may remember some of the details, they "forget their prior mood and rationalize present extremes into normality."

This March 7 headline from a major financial paper offers a perfect example of how this "normalization" works: "Forget 2000. It's a Different Investing Ballgame." Really? Yeah, really. "It really is different this time," says another. "The crazy valuations seen at the turn of the millennium -- when silly concepts, such as collecting eyeballs, attracted billions of dollars from breathless speculators wanting to get in on the new, new thing -- are absent."

There's just one problem with this assessment, it's not accurate. Here's the reality, or should we say surreality, as depicted in Bloomberg on March 17:

The Fuzzy, Insane Math That's Creating
So Many Billion-Dollar Tech Companies

The article discloses how companies are shooting to "astronomical valuations," mostly with Internet ideas that capture people's bullish imaginations and, as in 2000, cause them to look beyond mundane things such as cash flow and profits. Once again, such stone-age metrics are less important than "the number of people using the product" and "whether they pay for it. Investors salivate over what's called 'hockey-stick' growth curves, indicating massive uptake. Costs, especially operations costs, are largely ignored."

As in 2000, the fever has been spreading fast. According to Bloomberg, start-ups with billion-dollar valuations were once dubbed "unicorns" because of their rarity. Now, Bloomberg counts more than 50 of them. Many have expanded ten-fold, so a new buzzword, "decacorn," now applies to those with capitalizations of more than "$10 billion, which includes Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, Snapchat and Uber."

Of course, the driving force behind many of these investments is the same--a fear of missing out (FOMO).

"A severe case of FOMO can cause some to do crazy things to get into the hottest deals," says Bloomberg. This is exactly what the Financial Forecast said in March 2000, when we explained why people fail to heed ample warnings in the final throes of a mania: "Acting on such an opinion might mean missing something on the upside. 'The average person must ride it out,' says [a] Nobel Prize winner. Quotes such as these will deserve preservation in bronze when the bear market is mature." Clearly, that time still lies ahead.

For compelling Elliott wave evidence of a culmination of the Mania Era, see the five-wave advance in the share price of the current technology leader, Apple Inc., on page 3 of the March Elliott Wave Theorist. As the Theorist notes, after rising more than 14,500% over the past 12 years, S&P Dow Jones Indices added the stock to the Dow Jones Industrial Average on March 19.

This is one more remarkable parallel to the prior technology mania, as Microsoft was added to the Dow Industrials just prior to its January 2000 top. Here's how EWFF interpreted its addition in November 1999:

The ultimate concession to technology is due November 2, when Microsoft will be inducted into the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For most of the bull market, the world's most dominant stock was excluded from the world's premier blue-chip average. But just as RCA was added to the Dow in October 1928 (and removed in 1932), Microsoft has assumed its rightful place at the head of the pack, in time to lead the way down.

Apple has just been acknowledged in the same way and for the same reason. The pressure to pile onto the technology bandwagon has proved irresistible to the Dow's purveyors. This has generally happened when the most important stock market reversals were at hand.

Editor's note: This article is from Elliott Wave International's brand-new investment report, "U.S. Investors Face a Giant, Historic Bubble." It originally appeared in the April issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, published March 27, 2015. For a limited-time, EWI has agreed to give our readers exclusive free access to the full report. Please click here to read it now.


Monday, April 13, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. More puts likely to be on fire and subject to extinguishment this week.

US Economy in Recession

The US economy is now firmly in recession despite what the TV Talking Heads tell us.

More evidence of this fact comes from the National Association of Credit Management (NACM), whose latest report reveals:

"We now know that the readings of last month were not a fluke or some temporary aberration that could be marked off as something related to the weather," said NACM Economist Chris Kuehl. "These readings are as low as they have been since the recession started and to see everything start to get back on track would take a substantial reversal at this stage."

The combined score of 51.2 is moving dangerously close to contraction zone. The index of favorable factors dropped to 55.4 while the unfavorable factors drastically fell to 48.5--a place this index has not seen since after the end of the recession. "The signal this sends is that many companies are not nearly as healthy as it has been assumed and that there is considerably less resilience in the business sector than assumed," said Kuehl.

Most categories showed decreases this month, but the real damage occurred in the unfavorable changes categories. According to Kuehl, the most disturbing drop happened in the rejection of credit applications category, which fell from 48.1 to an even weaker 42.9. The accounts placed for collection fell to 49.8, disputes improved slightly to 49, dollar amount beyond terms fell to 45.5, and dollar amount of customer deductions dropped to 48.7.

"The year-over-year trend remains miserable and seems to be getting worse and thus far nearly all the blame can be laid at the feet of credit access," Kuehl said. "There is just not a lot of confidence in those that are doing the credit offerings these days."

Get Ready For GFC II

The global financial crisis of 2008 (GFC) is gearing up for another appearance. Get ready to hand the Too Big To Fail banks more of your hard-earned cash to compensate them for failure.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank, whose role as Big Daddy Warbucks protects the Little Orphan Annie banks from failure, the banks passed their latest stress test with flying colors. But, the Fed is making the same mistake it did last time and that's overcounting the value of derivatives. According to Thomas Hoenig, vice chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and former Fed governor, capital at the TBTF banks averaged only 4.97% at the end of 2014. The Fed itself, however, calculates that capital level at 12.9%.

The difference is substantial. In fact, a similar discrepancy occured just before the GFC. The late Fed governor Edward Gramlich warned of a similar discrepancy of capital—and was ignored. Will history repeat itself? Maybe not. But it could certainly rhyme. Will the Congress bow down to the TBTF banks again? We suspect that the fury of the taxpayer will eliminate another bailout.

But, if the banks truly own the government, we should expect the same result, unfortunately.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

Short Term Energy Outlook

The deal with Iran could drop prices by $5-15/bbl according to the US government agency EIA. That's according to notes in their Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). They say:

On April 2, Iran and the P5+1 reached a framework agreement to guide the next three months of negotiations, which will target a comprehensive agreement by June 30. Under the framework, U.S. and European Union nuclear-related sanctions (which includes oil-related sanctions) will be suspended after the International Atomic Energy Agency verifies that Iran has complied with key nuclear-related steps. If a comprehensive agreement that results in the lifting of Iranian oil-related sanctions is reached, then this could significantly change the STEO forecast for oil supply, demand, and prices. However, the timing and order that sanctions could be suspended is uncertain. In addition, the pace and volume at which more Iranian oil can re-enter the market is uncertain and depends on how quickly Iran can move oil out of storage and ramp up production.

In this STEO, EIA's forecast of oil supply, demand, and price is mostly unchanged from last month. Given the preliminary nature of the recent developments, EIA has not changed its short-term projection for Iranian production, which assumes that production will stay close to the current level. However, if a comprehensive deal is reached, the re-entry of more Iranian barrels could result in a $5-$15/bbl lower baseline STEO price projection in 2016 compared with the current STEO.

Iran is believed to hold at least 30 million barrels in storage. It is possible that Iran will attempt to move oil out of storage more quickly sometime during the second half of 2015 in preparation to increase production if discussions on sanctions show progress. As a result, the global market may see incremental increases in Iran's crude oil exports before seeing a substantial increase to Iran's production, but the pace at which oil in storage could be withdrawn is uncertain.

EIA believes that Iran has the technical capability to ramp up crude oil production by at least 700,000 bbl/d by at least the end of 2016, of which 600,000 bbl/d represents capacity that was previously shut in and 100,000 bbl/d is new capacity. EIA's current STEO projects that growth in global inventories declines from 1 million bbl/d in 2015 to 100,000 bbl/d in 2016. If Iran ramps up production by 700,000 bbl/d by at least the end of 2016, then this could result in an annual average growth of about 500,000 bbl/d in global inventories in 2016, which would stress storage capacity limits and put downward pressure on prices. The potentially large inventory build in 2016 implies that production growth outside of Iran could be lower or that global consumption growth could be higher than projected in the current STEO.

Although the timing and volume of Iran's exports remain uncertain, the market perception surrounding increased future supplies will apply downward price pressure to near-term crude oil prices. Overall, North Sea Brent crude oil prices could be lower by about $1-$3/bbl in 2015, decreasing the 2015 annual Brent price from the current projection in the high $50/bbl range. If and when significantly increased volumes of Iranian barrels start entering the market, the price effect could be greater. The uncertainty of the impact lies in the secondary effects on production outside of Iran, including in the United States, as well as any increases in global consumption as a response to lower oil prices, among other factors.

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. One more week of put extinguishment?

Thursday, April 09, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Liquidity pouring into the stock market may have only a few more days to run.

Record Low Arctic Sea Ice

The North Polar Cap is melting. At the end of winter this is, of course, exactly what you would expect to happen. The problem is that the ice is at a record low level already. That means it's on track to break the previous low ice extent recorded in 2012:

Will this be the first year that all Arctic sea ice melts? Indeed, it could be. Stay tuned.

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A slow grind to the upside could wear out the bears.

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

USA: Vulnerable to Energy Terrorism

The USA produces the most energy on Earth, surpassing even Saudi Arabia and Russia now. But, in terms of energy infrastructure, the electrical system which Thomas Edison built was never intended to keep going this long.

On Tuesday, a metal part fell off an electrical transformer, knocking out power to Washington, DC. As the Washington Post describes it:

A dozen people were trapped in stalled elevators, passengers were left searching for exits in darkened underground Metro stations, and a building full of Department of Energy employees and the main campus of the University of Maryland closed their doors. Thousands of visitors at Smithsonian museums on the Mall had to leave for hours. While the outage caused little more than a blip for many others, it took most of the afternoon to fully restore electricity.
The outage immediately caught the attention of national security officials, who have heightened their scrutiny of vulnerabilities of the U.S. electricity grid after recent reports that nations such as China and Iran have infiltrated U.S. power company networks.
Homeland security officials concluded Tuesday that terrorism had played no part in an outage that was quickly blamed on the failure of a simple piece of transmission equipment in southern Maryland.
Energy experts cast Tuesday's event as a mundane occurrence that happens daily on a small scale.
Rarely, and memorably, it occurs on a larger scale, said Michael J. Assante, an electric power industry expert and director at the SANS Institute, a cybersecurity training organization. One example: the 2003 power outage in the Northeast that resulted in 50 million people losing electricity for up to two days — the biggest blackout in North American history.
It's definitely a wakeup call to terrorists about just how vulnerable the USA is to minor outages. A concerted effort to simultaneously create these outages will likely be coming in the future and will be far more serious than Tuesday's accidental outage.

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It's time for a seasonal low in a favorite security.

Monday, April 06, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. We expected a rally and got it. But, what's coming just over the horizon?

Sunday, April 05, 2015

First Solar Teams With Clean Energy Collective For Distributed Solar Energy

Two of the nation’s leading solar companies are joining forces to offer customers the most affordable solar available—making solar power accessible to more Americans than ever before.

Clean Energy Collective (CEC), the nation’s leading community solar developer, has partnered with First Solar, the leading global provider of photovoltaic (PV) solar systems, to broaden the availability of clean, affordable energy for residential and commercial customers. Together, the companies will combine their expertise and pursue community solar opportunities throughout the U.S. to meet the growing consumer demand for more renewable options.

First Solar’s financial support, engineering technology and project management experience will enable CEC to develop a higher volume of community solar facilities that provide greater value for consumers. For example, recent developments in First Solar’s PV panel technology will increase efficiency levels, requiring fewer raw materials and reducing manufacturing costs. When CEC utilizes First Solar’s high-quality, PV panels in its community solar arrays, the savings will translate into lower prices for consumers.

The residential market potential for community solar in the U.S. is enormous. Unlike traditional rooftop solar, where only 22 to 27 percent of homes are able to host an on-site array, community solar is available to anyone with a utility bill. This means, according to the 2013 U.S. Census, that the community solar market encompasses nearly 133 million households—about five times the market potential of rooftop solar. For any residential or commercial customer who has spoken with SolarCity, Vivint Solar or other rooftop providers and were told they can’t go solar—now there’s a way.

The partnership between First Solar and CEC is also anticipated to create more American jobs, as the rapid expansion of community solar arrays will require an increase in panel manufacturing and greater assistance with facility construction and ongoing maintenance. With access to First Solar’s PV recycling plant, CEC will be able to accelerate the deployment of community solar projects in a socially responsible manner—recycling up to 95 percent of each PV panel at the end of its lifecycle.

With a combination of renowned technology, financial backing and environmental responsibility, this partnership provides for a superior product for consumers, taking us one step closer toward a clean energy future.

A Better Way: Distributed Solar Energy

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Why obliterating put values happens.

Thursday, April 02, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Employment Report out at 8:30 may be mostly garbage, but tends to move the markets short term.

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Beginning of month deployment of investor cash gave dip-buyers excuses on the dip.

The Global Warming Hoax


(April Fool!)

Global Warming Accelerates

Despite what the numb-nuts at Fox say, Global Warming is not only alive and well, it's accelerating.

Decoded Science writes:

Persistent Temperatures Far Above Normal in Many Locales

As the earth warms, the weather, at least judging by recent years, has become more stagnant. Snowy places stay snowy longer (ask a Bostonian), and hot places stay hot longer. The following are just a few examples of recent persistent warmer-than-normal weather:

  • Nairobi, Kenya has been above normal every day since January 1 and is forecast to stay above normal until at least early May.
  • North Pole: Temperatures above 80 degrees north latitude, as measured by the Danish Meteorological Institute, have been above normal all winter.
  • Mumbai, India, where the average March temperature is 85 degrees, has been above normal every day since March third, twice topping 100.
  • Los Angeles, California has been above normal every day since March 4, setting or tying high temperature records on four days.

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Goes Up — and Up — and Up

CO2 measurements on Mount Mauna Loa are increasing, and the rate of increase is increasing. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.

CO2 measurements on Mount Mauna Loa are increasing, and the rate of increase is increasing. Graphic courtesy of NOAA.

The average weekly CO2 reading for March 22-28, 2015 on Mount Mauna Loa in Hawaii was over 400 parts per million (ppm) for that week for the first time.

At 401.75 for the week, atmospheric carbon dioxide is now five percent higher than it was on the comparable week ten years ago. Carbon dioxide concentrations peak annually in May; Saturday’s reading of 402.94 is at the level of last May and going up at an increasing rate.

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The equity downtrend resumed today after a brief intermission rally.

Global Warming Hole

Jim Hansen writes:

We wondered about possible relation of temperature patterns with the “global warming hole” in the North Atlantic south of Greenland, noted in the scientific literature by Drijfhout et al. (2012). Rahmstorf et al. (2015) note that this warming hole, at least on longer time scales, is probably related to a slowdown in ocean heat transport. In climate simulations with increasing meltwater from Greenland we have noted a cooling in that area and a tendency for atmospheric blocking there, which provides another hypothesis to account for a fixed location of Arctic cold air outbreaks. More about that later.

You can take consolation in realizing that it really was as cold as it seemed. Unless you are more than 80 years old, February was the coldest February of your life in New York City (Fig. 2a). In fact, it was the 2nd coldest month in the past 80 years, only January 1977 being colder.

Fig. 2(b) is to remind you that local temperature anomalies dwarf global anomalies. So why do we care about global anomalies that are much smaller than local natural variability? A lot of reasons, but our next paper will, I think, make that story clearer.

Wait a minute! Does this large local “noise” mean that we have a good chance for a cooler than average summer? Eh, not so much. First, summers are much less noisy than winters – for good reasons, such as the much weaker equator to pole temperature gradient in the summer. Think of the “bell curve” for summer temperature anomalies (Hansen et al. 2012) – the summer bell curve has shifted far to the right. Waggles in the jet stream – largely unforced, i.e., natural variability – that affect regional climate are important in the summer, as well as in other seasons, but chances of having a summer warmer than it was several decades ago are high. And thus so too are the extreme events embedded within a hotter than normal summer.

Monday, March 30, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Retracement rally sets up next leg down... and soon.

Friday, March 27, 2015

Deflation Watch: Key Economic Measures Turn South

Deflation Watch: Key Economic Measures Turn South
A developing deflationary trend hinders the economic "recovery"

By Elliott Wave International

Lots of media stories say the Federal Reserve is weighing signs of economic strength to see if the economy is ripe for higher interest rates.

In truth, economic weakness has appeared on various fronts.

Such as, for example, the financial health of U.S. companies.

Profits for US companies are expected to decline over two consecutive quarters for the first time in six years... .

Not since the aftermath of the financial crisis have S&P 500 companies recorded two straight quarters of falling profits on a year-over-year basis.

Financial Times, March 6

Elliott Wave International released the March issue of the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. It discussed signs of economic weakness, via these charts and commentary:

Corporate Profits are [a] key measure that turned down months ago... . In addition to trailing off ahead of market downturns in 2000 and 2007, the chart shows that in mid-2013 corporate profits completed a five-wave advance from 1990. The reversal from that all-time high of $1.67 trillion should continue and eventually move below the wave 4 low of $793 billion in late 2008.

In January, Real Retail and Food Service Sales fell 0.8%. A breakdown shows the declines ranged well beyond energy expenses, as furniture sales fell 8.7%, clothing was down 9.5% and sporting goods, hobby, book and music sales fell 31.7%. The year-over-year change in Real Retail and Food Service Sales has actually been angling lower since February 2011. Note how this measure reversed in much the same manner ahead of the stock price peaks in 2000 and 2007 and the recessions that followed. ... U.S. Total Construction peaked in June 2006, a year and three months ahead of the October 2007 high in the Dow Industrials. U.S. Hourly Wages are weaker still. At 2.5%, the most recent peak rate-of-wage-growth is well below the prior highs of 4.3% in May 1998 and 4.2% in December 2006.

Also, the "recovery" in employment has gained back only about 40% of the jobs lost during the recession (despite new highs in the stock market). The data also suggests that over half of those new jobs are due to government borrowing.

Mind you, all these economic indicators have turned south despite unprecendented stimulus from the Fed.

Why?

The January Elliott Wave Theorist says "deflation is starting to win."

Oil is down 61% in seven months. Bitcoin is down 86% in thirteen months. Commodities have made new lows for the past five years. Gold and silver made their highs over three years ago. The inflation rate is negative in Europe. And interest rates just went negative in Switzerland. But remember what ... inflation forecasters have insisted all along: central banking guarantees that deflation is impossible.

Since that issue of the Theorist published, it's been revealed that January brought a year-over-year decline of 0.1% in U.S. consumer prices. It was the first fall into negative territory since October 2009. On a monthly basis the decline was 0.7%, the largest since December 2008.

Want to read more? Take a look below for details on how to get a free report from Elliott Wave International.


U.S. Economy Still on Life Support

For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly. But that's not ALL the government is hiding from you. From foodstuffs, to crude oil prices, to GDP, the numbers and analysis reported by the government and mainstream financial press are misleading at best, downright falsehoods at worst.

Get the hidden truth in this free two-part report from now >>

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. This leg down should be finished soon.

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Panic hit the market today and could be growing in coming days. Dow 16,700 ahead?

Electric vehicle batteries 'already cheaper than 2020 projections'

Simon Evans writes in Electric vehicle batteries 'already cheaper than 2020 projections':

The cost of electric vehicle battery packs is falling so rapidly they are probably already cheaper than expected for 2020, according to a new study in Nature Climate Change.

Electric vehicles remain more expensive than combustion-engine equivalents, largely because of battery costs. In 2013 the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimated cost-parity could be reached in 2020, with battery costs reaching $300 per kilowatt hour of capacity.

But market-leading firms were probably already producing cheaper batteries last year, says today's new research. It says its figures are "two to four times lower than many recent peer-reviewed papers have suggested".

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A supportive downtrend could help equities levitate a bit longer.

USA: A Government Led By Traitors

While it may not come as a surprise to most citizens, the lies our government tells are eventually revealed. Ron Paul reveals this about the invasion of Iraq:
We recently gained even more evidence that the initial war was sold on lies and fabrications. The CIA finally declassified much of its 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, which was the chief document used by the Bush Administration to justify the US attack. According to the Estimate, the US Intelligence Community concluded that:
'[W]e are unable to determine whether [biological weapons] agent research has resumed...' And: 'the information we have on Iraqi nuclear personnel does not appear consistent with a coherent effort to reconstitute a nuclear weapons program.'
But even as the US Intelligence Community had reached this conclusion, President Bush told the American people that Iraq, "possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons" and "the evidence indicates that Iraq is reconstituting its nuclear weapons program."

Likewise, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s “bulletproof” evidence that Saddam Hussein had ties with al-Qaeda was contradicted by the National Intelligence Estimate, which concluded that there was no operational tie between Hussein’s government and al-Qaeda.

Even National Security Advisor Condolezza Rice’s famous statement that the aluminum tubes that Iraq was purchasing "are only really suited for nuclear weapons programs, centrifuge programs," and "we don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud," was based on evidence she must have known at the time was false. According to the NIE, the Energy Department had already concluded that the tubes were "consistent with applications to rocket motors" and "this is the more likely end use."

It is hard to believe that in a society supposedly governed by the rule of law, US leaders can escape any penalty for using blatantly false information – that they had to know at the time was false – to launch a pre-emptive attack on a country that posed no threat to the United States. The fact that they got away with it simply makes it all the easier for Washington’s interventionists to try the same tricks again. They already did with Libya and Syria. It is likely they are also doing the same with claims of a Russian “invasion” of Ukraine.

Last week President Obama correctly blamed the current chaos in Iraq on the Bush Administration’s decision to invade. He said, “… ISIL is a direct outgrowth of al Qaeda in Iraq that grew out of our invasion. Which is an example of unintended consequences. Which is why we should generally aim before we shoot.”

However, if the US intervention in Iraq created the “unintended consequences” of ISIS and al-Qaeda, how is it that more US intervention can solve the problem?

A war based on lies cannot be fixed by launching another war. We must just march home. And stay home.
And, we must recognize that the greatest enemies of the USA are not the terrorists themselves, but the elected leaders of this country who are committing treasonous acts in office. They are war criminals, plain and simple, and should be facing the consequences of their treasonous perfidity.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. There's no question about the future, intermediate-term direction of stock prices now.

Overcoming Loss of Jobs In Texas Due to Oil Price Crash

While the crashing price of oil means the loss of oil production jobs in Texas, all is not bleak for energy jobs in the Lone Star state.

The solar industry is growing jobs at the rate of 68% per annum in Texas.

The Solar Foundation reports in its 2014 Census of Solar Jobs in Texas:

The Census found that the solar industry employed 6,965 people in Texas in 2014, a figure that includes the addition of 2,829 new solar jobs over the previous year. This represents 68 percent growth in solar industry employment since November 2013. Additionally, Texas solar employment grew nearly 25 times faster than overall employment growth in the state during the same period.

“Texas’s solar industry has once again proven to be a powerful engine of economic growth thanks to phenomenal new solar job creation,” said Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director of The Solar Foundation. “Texas solar jobs have grown 68 percent in the last year, adding approximately 2,830 new jobs. It also shows that the solar industry is attracting highly-skilled, well-paid professionals in Texas. That growth is putting people back to work and strengthening Texas’s economy.”

“Solar has played—and will continue to play—a major role in diversifying our State’s energy mix. It’s an inexhaustible resource; lower production costs, greater dependability and ease of use have led to a wider deployment of this technology,” said Texas State Senator Troy Fraser. “We’re very proud that Texas significantly grew its solar jobs in 2014, and ranked sixth in solar jobs nationally. Going forward, solar has tremendous potential to be a major source of quality jobs in Texas.”

“Texas’s abundant land, ample sunshine, and extensive transmission network make the state one of the top solar industry growth markets in the U.S.,” said Arno Harris, CEO of Recurrent Energy. “In addition, years of decreasing costs and growing scale are now enabling solar power to successfully compete against conventional energy to meet the growing demand in ERCOT. The pieces are all in place for an incredible 68 percent increase in Texas solar employment.”

“Our company has doubled in size each year since 2012 in a market—Houston—that has no state or utility incentives. Barring any changes that could have a negative impact on our industry, we feel there is a very good chance we’ll stay on this trajectory for the next few years,” said Cal Morton of Texas Solar Outfitters. “Adding needed electricity capacity with zero emissions, while creating thousands of well-paid, skilled positions—it’s a win-win for Texas.”

Texas solar employers are also optimistic about 2015, expecting the total number of solar jobs to climb to 9,129 by the end of this year.

The National Solar Jobs Census 2014—of which the Texas and other state Census reports are an offshoot—was conducted by The Solar Foundation and BW Research Partnership with support from The George Washington University. The national report, derived from data collected from more than 7,600 U.S. businesses, measured employment growth in the solar industry between November 2013 and November 2014. The margin of error of this data set is &plumn;-2.03%, which is significantly lower than any similar national industry study.

“The study shows both aggressive hiring and clear optimism among solar companies,” said Philip Jordan, Vice President at BW Research Partnership. “Of particular interest was the continued high wages among solar installers nationwide. Additionally, we found that the U.S. installation sector is generally more diverse than other energy sectors; the industry employs many returning veterans and African-Americans and Latinos are hired at a faster rate than in the oil, gas, coal and construction sectors.”

The full National Solar Jobs Census and State Solar Jobs Census reports with district level jobs for California, Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Texas, and New York are available at www.TSFcensus.org. Job numbers and rankings of economic indicators for all 50 states are available in The Solar Foundation’s updated State Solar Jobs Map at www.SolarStates.org.

 

About The Solar Foundation:

The Solar Foundation® (TSF) is an independent 501(c)(3) nonprofit whose mission is to increase understanding of solar energy through strategic research that educates the public and transforms markets. Since 2010, TSF has published its annual National Solar Jobs Census, which established the first credible solar jobs base line for the U.S. The Solar Foundation is considered the nation’s authority on the solar workforce and advises many organizations on the topic. TSF is the leading nonprofit technical assistance provider for local governments through its work with the U.S. Department of Energy. In addition, TSF chairs the National Solar Schools Consortium, a group of stakeholders seeking to make solar a larger part of the national K-12 system. More at www.TheSolarFoundation.org

About BW Research Partnership:

BW Research is widely regarded as the national leader in labor market analysis for emerging industries and clean energy technologies. BW Research provides high quality data and keen insight into economic and workforce issues related to renewable energy, energy efficiency, transportation, recycling, water, waste, and wastewater management, and other environmental fields. The principals of the firm are committed to providing research and analysis for data-driven decision-making. More at http://www.bwresearch.com/

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. After profiting from last week's rally, where's the next speed bump?

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Mitch McConnell: Advocate For Big Government Now?

The leading Senate Republican, Mitch McConnell, is a big government man.

What? We thought Republicans were against big government. Say it ain't so!

Yes, indeed, as McConnell’s anti-EPA plan: Convince Republicans to welcome big-government climate regulation tells us:

Mitch McConnell is a coal man. During his hard-fought 2014 reelection campaign, McConnell promised voters in Kentucky coal country that he would do anything and everything he could to battle back against Barack Obama's "war on coal." If it dirtied the air he'd be for it. If it polluted aquafers he'd support it. Coal ash in every stream and two black lungs in every chest cavity! Vote McConnell!
McConnell's promise was that by taking on Obama and fighting the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed regulations mandating steep reductions in carbon emissions, he'd help bring back Kentucky's withering coal industry. What he conveniently overlooked is the fact that the Kentucky coal business owes its long, slow demise to simple economics: increased automation has drastically reduced the demand for labor; cheaper fuels, like natural gas, are steadily eating away at the overall demand for coal; and what coal remains in Kentucky is difficult to mine after over a century's worth of enthusiastic digging. Rolling back a few EPA regulations won't do much to change the industry's grim economic outlook.
But that doesn't mean McConnell isn't a man of his word. He's taking the fight to the EPA, but instead of going through Congress he's leading an unusual effort to appeal to the states directly, encouraging them to resist implementation of the carbon regulations. McConnell's campaign is strange not just because he's forgoing legislation, but also because he's straight-up asking the states to screw themselves over.
The EPA's climate regulations ask states to submit their own plans for meeting emissions goals. If those plans aren't in by next summer, the EPA will impose a federal plan on the noncompliant states. The thinking is that if a state develops its own proposal, it will be better tailored to the specific needs and unique characteristics of that state, whereas the federal plan will allow for far less flexibility and be more disruptive. McConnell's plan is to encourage states to simply refuse to comply, subject themselves to the federal regulatory regime, and trust that the EPA's climate plan will be invalidated by the courts.

This reminds us that the Republican Party is split right down the middle on climate change. It also reminds us that all their talk of downsizing government and privatizing government functions to the free market is mostly a lot of talk. In Texas, we call that “all boots and no cattle.” It's a losing battle the climate deniers are fighting. Ultimately, they are wrong and will lose the war. By the time the public rejects the deniers, anyone who supported them will have lost all credibility. It's amazing to see the Republicans self-destructing, but that's the ultimate end to this charade they're trying to maintain.

Friday, March 20, 2015

Securities and Exchange Commission: Job-Killers

Obama's SEC has proven it's good at just one thing: killing jobs.

Years ago, the Congress passed the JOBS Act, which promised to kickstart jobs in America.

Since then, the SEC has continually dragged its feet at issuing regulations. This is an abominable government bureaucracy who knew that Bernie Madoff was defrauding investors for decades and refused to stop him. It's an agency which goes after small investors in the name of protecting them. And, it's a job-killing agency which has proven it has no reason to exist.

Now, it seems that the majority party in DC (Republicans) are fed up. Let's hope they not only force the SEC to change its irrational stance on the JOBS Act. Let's hope they do the right thing and let the free market make the decision on investments in general.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Our favored part of the stock market continued to rise today.

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed proves the market and the bears wrong again.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Having our cake and eating it too could start to become a welcome habit.

2015Q1 GDP Barely Positive

The Atlanta Fed has a model which tries to track what GDP for the US economy is doing currently. That model is called GDPNow. So, what does the Atlanta Fed think the economy is doing now?

GDP growth for the first quarter has fallen to 0.3%. That's basically recession territory. This is yet another reason to suspect that the Fed is not data-dependent as they claim to be. If this model is correct, raising interest rates is exactly wrong. If the Fed goes ahead and raises rates, it will be signaling that they actually want the economy to go into recession. Perhaps they do, if only to pop the various financial bubbles they themselves have created.

This is just one more reason why the Fed is a total disaster for the economy and should be ended.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Confluence of timing indicators points to how long the current trend in stocks will last.

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A major trend change in currencies is coming soon!

Thursday, March 12, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Sellers cover shorts ahead of options expiration next week.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Europe soars while US corrects. Catch-up or catch-down. Only your friendly QE banker knows!

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What will WWW (Weird Wolly Wednesday) bring tomorrow?

Monday, March 09, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It was a case of bellwether blues on Monday.

Sunday, March 08, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Correction accelerates, but did the market misinterpret the Employment Report?

Friday, March 06, 2015

Unemployment Report a Head Fake For Markets

Today's Employment Report released by the government was a head fake for markets.

According to Harry Dent, “Of the 288,000 private jobs added in February, more than 27% fell to industries that pay below an average hourly wage of $15.83. These jobs are typically in restaurants, gas stations, grocery and general merchandise stores. While it is encouraging that we are adding people to the employment rolls, it’s important to note that retail and low-level service jobs do not pay well enough for workers to increase their spending and push the economy forward.”

We should also note that more than 300,000 jobs were lost in the month, more than the number of jobs supposedly created. This was due to shrinkage of the labor force as the number of people actually holding jobs shrank to the lowest level in decades.

Thursday, March 05, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. May 8th is an important time target in the equity markets.

Wednesday, March 04, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What security has gained almost $10,000 per share since mid-January? How much more to go?

Storage: Great For Oil and Electricity

Driving the marginal cost of energy toward zero is happening.

Oil is plunging and storage is filling up. The Energy Dept reports that:

Crude oil inventory data for the week ending February 20 show that total utilization of crude oil storage capacity in the United States stands at approximately 60%, compared with 48% at the same time last year. Most U.S. crude oil stocks are held in the Midwest and Gulf Coast, where storage tanks were at 69% and 56% of capacity, respectively, as of February 20. This capacity use calculation reflects only crude oil stored in tanks or underground caverns at tank farms and refineries.

And, in electricity, the storage of which can save consumers substantially, we are finding costs are diving. A Comprehensive Look At Tesla's Home Batteries shows:

When attached to solar panels, home batteries store energy that can be used in emergencies, such as power outages, or on a regular basis. Continuous battery use slashes utility bills by reducing dependence on the "grid." Grid electricity is expensive during power spikes, which occur when motors in major appliances are turned on, and during peak demand periods. Home batteries could significantly cut into the generator market with revenues of $16 billion, but more importantly, they seem to be the ultimate solution for storage of excess energy harnessed by solar panels.

However, the author concludes that Tesla's product just won't cut it in this market:

Musk's other companies, including SolarCity, are poised to benefit from a transition to independence from utilities, but it seems that Tesla will not. The promise of a Tesla Model S home battery may hold sway over investors, but is unlikely to hold sway over consumers who can purchase less expensive alternatives from other car companies and affordable power storage system companies.

The Fed Can't Raise Interest Rates

No matter how much Janet Yellen would like to, she simply cannot raise interest rates. The reason? The obvious decline of the US economy into recession. This chart makes that decline abundantly clear:
It will soon be obvious even to the FOMC that raising rates is exactly the wrong thing to do.

Our Government Our Enemy

The government doesn't want the bad guys to get strong encryption. In other words, our nanny government thinks it has the right to sleep in our beds. That's why they banned export of strong encryption over a decade ago.

Now that stupidity has come back to haunt us. Even the government has fallen victim to weak encryption on websites. It took one Amazon Web Services user just seven hours to crack the encryption on government web sites like WhiteHouse.gov, FBI.gov and NSA.gov (the latter website is, at this moment, an open house for crackers). A survey of websites shows that almost half of sites claiming to be secure are simply not up to the task and can be cracked into fairly easily.

Thus, our government proves to be our enemy. Once again. It's time we took back our government and fixed it. That means eliminating both Democrats and Republicans, the enemies of the people.

Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities found a key support line and bounced today.

Monday, March 02, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The watchword for NASDAQ is now "exhaustion" after a run back to 5000.

Miami: Drowning As It Sinks Into The Ocean

Sometimes reality is far stranger than fiction. The Guardian points an accusatory finger at America's climate deniers:
Low-lying south Florida, at the front line of climate change in the US, will be swallowed as sea levels rise. Astonishingly, the population is growing, house prices are rising and building goes on. The problem is the city is run by climate change deniers.
Sounds like a short-selling opportunity for properties soon to be underwater.

Sunday, March 01, 2015

Rapid Global Warming Beginning Now

The so-called “hiatus” in global warming is over. In fact, it was never there at all.

What was happening was the excess heat generated by human burning of fossil fuels was being absorbed by the oceans, mostly the Pacific Ocean. This left air temperatures stable for about a decade and a half. And, gave the criminal deniers chances to declare global warming a hoax.

But, now, the true source of the false-hiatus is known: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation was the reason why air temperatures have been relatively stable. And, now, the PDO is ending and it's sending global air temperatures higher. 2014 was the hottest year on record. And, January 2015 was the second warmest January on record as well.

Warmth is being rapidly pumped into the air over the Pacific Ocean. The rate of temperature rise on the planet is likely to double over the next several decades, making it impossible for the world to stay below the 2° warming it had set as a limit to catastrophic warming.

What we need to do now is to shutdown all fossil fuel burning as soon as possible. It's not getting any cooler in here and we're set to really cook the planet in the years ahead.

Heroin Creator: We'll Sue Over Bee Pesticides

Bayer, the inventor of heroin, is threatening to sue environmental organizations over their opposition to bee pesticides. SumOfUs.org reports, “We’ve just received a letter from a major corporate agribusiness firm threatening legal action unless we stop our campaign to save the bees.” Apparently, SumOfUs's campaign against pesticides which are killing bees is making headway.

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A dip to refresh? Yes.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Batteries Need To Triple Capacity

For batteries to make sure electric vehicles eliminate fossil fuel ones, Stanford's Yi Cui says that:
Right now, batteries cost about $300 per each kiloWatt-hour of capacity. For the two largest use cases (electric vehicles and on-grid storage), we need that figure to drop to about $100 per kW-hr in order for the technology to compete with fossil-fuel-powered cars and generating facilities. For the grid, where the batteries are stationary, it doesn't matter how much they weigh. But for a more effective electric vehicle, we'd like to see the energy density rise from its present 200 W-hr/kg to about 600 W-hr/kg.
That's tripling the capacity while cutting the price by two-thirds. A pretty tall order.

Not too tall. Batteries with even higher capacity are on the way. Stay tuned. ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) are dinosaurs soon to be scrapped and mostly forgotten. Along with oil companies, auto manufacturers (most of them) and many other relics of the technological past. We're approaching a new Golden Age of Cheap Energy.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The leader of the leader bears watching as it heads for our measured move target price.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Signs of equity weakness continue to setup the next buying opportunity—as bonds bounce.

Will Apple Buy Tesla?

On first glance, it doesn't seem likely. But, there are actually some great arguments in favor of this deal happening.

First of all, Apple has a cash war chest that needs to be invested in the next big product after iPhone. Otherwise, the stock could be hitting a wall where margins fall due to market saturation.

Where are we heading in terms of the next big product out of Silicon Valley? As we've written in recent articles, the autonomous electric car is the next big thing. So, while Apple could certainly build a car company from scratch, buying an existing company really makes a lot of sense—and timing could be critical since many other auto manufacturers are working on their own autonomous cars. Whoever gets to market first with a complete product is going to take home all the marbles.

Elon Musk has stated that his shares in Tesla would be the last to be sold. But, if he feels that the future of autos is safe in Apple's hands, then he might just recommend that Tesla's shareholders sell to Apple. Certainly, Tesla is going to need a huge war chest to scale up production. And, it's going to need the best and brightest to engineer the first truly autonomous car. Apple has been poaching Tesla's designers by offering to boost their salaries by 60% and include a quarter-million-dollar signing bonus. Joining forces could ease the salary pressure on both companies.

It all comes down to Elon's assessment of whether Apple could carry the torch to the ultimate goal.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The equity uptrend is getting very weak now. Will the bubble leader peak out?

Apple Paying Up To Poach Tesla Employees

Elon Musk reveals how much Apple is offering Tesla employees to jump ship reports that Apple is offering Tesla employees a 60% increase in pay and a quarter million dollar signing bonus to jump ship and build a car for Apple.

This illustrates just how important it has become to be a leader in the new era of electric, autonomous cars. In fact, Apple is betting that they will be able to repeat the success of the iPhone in automobiles.

It also points up the price of failure. Any existing car maker that isn't going full bore into electric, autonomous cars is simply going out of business in the long term.

Monday, February 23, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Equities in stasis, but the biggest moth is moving close to a candle!

Sunday, February 22, 2015

As Battery Costs Fall, Australia Is a Test Case for Grid Defection

Jason Deign writes:
Australia has some of the highest electricity prices in the world due to an overbuild of network infrastructure. Could falling battery costs cause increasing numbers of customers to abandon the system altogether?
Solar power installers in the country say the cost of batteries is the only thing holding back more widespread consumer grid defection in the residential sector.
Australia is already in the midst of a rooftop solar boom as grid customers look to offset the rising cost of utility power.
Almost one-fifth of Australian households now use solar panels for electricity or hot water, tempted by three- to four-year payback times and national rebates that reduce the upfront cost of a PV system.
The rebate is one of a number of renewable energy support systems under threat from the current administration.
An elimination of the PV subsidy could add a couple of thousand dollars to the price of a typical residential solar power system, which currently costs between around AUD $5,000 (USD $3,890) and $10,000 (USD $7,790) for a 5-kilowatt setup.
For now, attempts to cut back on Australia's renewable energy commitments have been met with spirited opposition, leading utilities to resort to other measures to keep customers on the grid.
...
"Once the battery technology improves and becomes more readily available, then I think there will be a certain tipping point. I'm convinced of it," said Paul Thompson, who runs an installation business called Green Sun Solar in Perth. "I speak to a lot of people, and they would be extremely happy if they could give the middle finger to the power companies. I think people would love to go completely off-grid or hybrid, but it boils down to [battery] price," he said.
Thompson said he sees a lot of interest from consumers, but once they find out the price, "they back off a bit."
Nevertheless, he said, even the elimination of solar power subsidies likely would not be enough to halt Australia's growing trend toward reducing grid-based consumption, and possibly grid defection.
Even as the economics of batteries and solar improve, the lifestyle adjustment needed to defect from the power system may be too great for consumers. But some analysts are warning utilities in Australia that they should expect some consumers to consider the option.

The Falling Solar Price Curve

In 1931, Thomas Edison said, “I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

Here we are, 84 years later. Let's take a look at the solar price curve. In 1970, 39 years after Edison's remark, the cost of solar cells needed to produce one watt of electricity cost $100. By 2013, the cost had dropped to 65¢/W. By 2020, the cost is expected to drop to 22¢/W. In other words, within five years from today, solar arrays will have improved their cost basis by 455 times. At the same time, fossil fuels will have become more expensive to extract and are still today, even after the drop of the last year, five times more expensive than they were at the close of the last century. And, remember, once the solar array has paid back its installation and maintenance costs, the marginal cost of electricity is zero—solar power is essentially free for the remaining lifetime of the array (about 50 years).

When investors sell solar stocks just because oil and gasoline have been halved in price, they should consider that gasoline would have to drop well below 1¢ per gallon in order for it to regain its 1970 competitive edge compared to solar power.

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A bigger pothole lies ahead in equities.

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Let's Make BP Pay

British Petroleum (BP) caused at least $18 Billion in damages when its Deepwater Horizon exploded and gushed oil for months into the Gulf of Mexico. Now, BP says it can't afford to pay for the damages.

As you know the oil industry will be out of business within the next 15 years. We need to demand that BP pay up now because if they drag this debt into the future, there will not be any money left to pay for the damages. Last year, BP distributed $23 Billion in dividends to its shareholders. Obviously, they have the money. Now it's time to pay. If we let BP wriggle off the hook, they will eventually not have to.

Sign the petition now!