|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds remain the favorite flight-to-quality market.|
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Monday, November 23, 2015
On the eve of the most important global climate meeting of our lifetime, hundreds of thousands are hitting the streets worldwide, with love and hope, to show leaders how to lead, and fight for a beautiful, equitable, post-fossil fuel 100% clean energy future. Find your march here: http://globalclimatemarch.org
Sunday, November 22, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Later, we'll have the #WeekendAnalysis PDF updated for subscribers.|
Saturday, November 21, 2015
"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Elon Musk, the entrepreneur who helped create PayPal, built America's first viable fully electric car company, started the nation's biggest solar energy supplier, and may make commercial space travel a reality in our lifetime. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Television offers extensive coverage and analysis of international business news and stories of global importance. It is available in more than 310 million households worldwide and reaches the most affluent and influential viewers in terms of household income, asset value and education levels. With production hubs in London, New York and Hong Kong, the network provides 24-hour continuous coverage of the people, companies and ideas that move the markets.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big picture should make any long term investor quite nervous here.|
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The dead rat bounce continues in the stock market with a buy signal this morning.|
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Monday, November 16, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Saturday, November 14, 2015
How could the UN climate talks in Paris next month ratchet up the national plans (INDCs) and succeed in limiting global warming? Drew Jones of Climate Interactive presents scenarios from the C-ROADS simulation and explores how far these contributions get us, and what more is needed to keep warming to within 2° Celsius (3.6°F) of temperature change above pre-industrial levels.
The C-ROADS simulation, which created the scenarios, is available for download along with all assumptions and equations at climateinteractive.org.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Internals continue to collapse in the stock market. Deja vu all over again?|
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Monday, November 09, 2015
|Last week, the government reported that 271,000 new jobs were created in the month of October, much to the surprise of markets. Stocks and bonds tumbled on the belief that this would give the Fed permission to raise interest rates to slow an overheating economy.
Apparently, no one realized that the Employment Report is one of the most lagging indicators of the economy. The good news on jobs reflects the economy as it was several months ago. It's not unusual to see a high number of new jobs being reported just before the economy dips into recession. Other data series which are more up-to-date show the economy in a position which has led to recession shortly thereafter. That's not to say they are saying we're about to enter recession. But, they are saying that the Fed had better not take the most lagging indicator into consideration when hiking interest rates.
With corporate earnings sliding, many corporations are over-indebted today due to borrowing money to buy back their shares and artificially boost earnings. The JNK ETF reflects a strong downtrend that is a forecast of a falling economy. The last time the Fed hiked rates in 2007 they did so in a declining economy and that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Will they do it again?
Well, when you consider that most of the Fed members are lawyers and not economists, it doesn't look good for the economy or the country.
Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun
By Elliott Wave International
The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."
Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.
Take a look at this chart:
Japan's economy has gone through a very long winter. The nation has experienced deflation for most of the past 25 years.
Here's a September 25 Financial Times headline:
Japan falls back into deflation for first time since 2013
But a change of seasons may be closer than many observers realize. Review this chart and commentary excerpted from a Special Report by Mark Galasiewski in the October issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Global Market Perspective:
Is this sleeping giant ready to offer opportunities for investors?
You can learn now in a new free report from Elliott Wave International, 3 Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks.
You'll get Galasiewski's Special Section on Japan, as presented to Elliott Wave International subscribers in Global Market Perspective.
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Friday, November 06, 2015
|Jules Peck summarizes last week's Guildhall meeting in the city of London discussing climate change in From Business as Usual to Business as Urgent -- City Signs Up for One Way Ticket to the Low Carbon Economy:
A major theme running throughout the event was that of stranded carbon assets, a concept that many leading figures have come out in support of. For example Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England has said that the "vast majority of reserves are unburnable" if global temperature rises are to be limited to below 2C and that this represents "potentially huge losses" to asset managers. Because of this the Bank of England and the G20 are both now examining the risk this issue poses to the global economy.
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said:
In a phrase that was echoed by other speakers Figueres said that "we are not in a world of business as usual, we're in a world of business as urgent" and argued that, while a climate change deal to be agreed in Paris in December will not come up with a global carbon price, this was not relevant because "We already have a strong carbon price signal" in many jurisdictions around the world, with almost 80% of global emissions under some sort of carbon pricing now.
Figeures made it clear that the Paris deal will sketch out a roadmap to a net-zero emission economy in which most reserves booked by fossil fuel companies will not be able to be burnt and will therefore become stranded assets. But she warned that, despite this, the energy industry is still banking on ever-rising demand for its products as if nothing has changed. For Figueres, "these [projections] are pure fiction".
A shift out of carbon assets is rapidly underway:
From other panel discussions it became clear that many investors are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance commented that talk of such litigation risks "is setting off alarm bells that there could be long tail risks" for those not incorporating such issues into their analysis and that "Paris gives us all a non-exchangeable, one-way ticket to a low-carbon economy."
Karmali said that because of this, and the increased risks associated with carbon heavy assets, his bank has now accelerated its shift out of coal stocks to "a very low level" and that Bank of America now have three times the exposure to renewables as they do to coal. Underlining how significant this shift is, he described this as "remarkable for a conservative institution like ourselves".
Mark Lewis of Barclays shook the audience with a cautionary tale that ten years ago, the utility sector ignored the signs of the coming tsunami of renewables and that those utilities lost 60-80% of their value. He also pointed out that sell side analysts completely misread the way the market would shift on renewables. He warned that translating what comes out of the Paris talks for financial analysts will not be straight forward and it will need their clients to be calling for more incorporation of carbon risk in asset mangers investments for this issue to become of focus for most mainstream financial analysis.
Echoing what Figueres had said, Lewis underlined that a huge market shift away from high carbon assets is underway, whether or not analysts are always recognising this, and quoted the CEO of energy company ENEL that "there is a huge tide flowing, you can decide in which direction to swim but the flow is not in your control and nor is the direction it is flowing."
However, despite some city institutions being more and more engaged with these issues, Helena Morrissey, CEO of Newton and chairman of Investment Management Association, warned that the impact of climate policy is still not high enough on agenda of most investment companies and that there is a need for an end to silos and a shift to integrated investing in which climate change becomes fully part of the mainstream way of doing thing for city institutions.
Morrissey warned her peers that "We slept walked into the financial crisis and we have no excuse for sleepwalking into a climate crisis" and called for more sense of urgency from the investment community who should stop delaying tough decisions for lack of a clear enough roadmap from politicians. She also called for more pressure from clients and others to encourage bodies like the Investment Association to take carbon risk more seriously.
Anthony Hobley of Carbon Tracker echoed this idea of sleepwalking into crisis saying that the old energy order is living on borrowed time and compared what is happening today with the inevitable shift away from carbon to the decline of Britain's canals in the mid-19th century when railways burst onto the scene and drove down cargo tolls, destroying the business model.
Giving Kodak and Blockbuster as more recent examples, Hobley pointed out that technology takes no prisoners and to a long graveyard of industries and companies that stuck doggedly to business as usual at key inflexion points and said that "Incumbents invariably fail to see it coming."
Hobley underlined what other speakers had said in terms of the message expected to come from the December Paris climate summit saying that "Most international laws or treaties are not about breaking new ground. They are about codifying what the major powers are doing anyway. The success of Paris will be in codifying what is already happening. For incumbents and for you as investors it will open a window for you to see the transition that is already taking place. It will give the incumbents an opportunity to get on the train before it departs the station."
Thursday, November 05, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The stock market continues to collapse on the inside. It's smaller than it looks from the outside.|
|It's highly likely that fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil will not be allowed, either by the free market or government fiat, to extract all of their reserves in the ground. That means the Carbon Bubble will be popped, sooner or later, and asset prices of fossil fuel companies have a strong future downtrend to contend with.
Since Exxon has done the most research on the subject of Climate Change by their own admission, you would think they had a plan: the handwriting is on the wall. So far, the only part of the plan we've seen them implement is funding climate change deniers. That hasn't worked, obviously. What exactly is their plan?
Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, appeared on Fox Business yesterday, but gave no hint that he even understood the basics of the changes that are already in the pipeline. When asked about the effect of self-driving cars, he answered that it would increase the demand for gasoline because more cars would be sold. That answer shows that he hasn't thought the process through at all. When driverless cars are sold, they are most likely going to be electric cars, not gas-guzzlers, and that will reduce demand for internal combustion cars.
Electric cars have so many advantages over fossil fuel cars that the economics of electrics will trounce fossil fuels. They have far fewer moving parts, they will be much more economical to operate and batteries will drop sharply in the near future. That means driverless cars will be cheaper to own and operate than fossil fuel cars.
This one point reveals that the head of ExxonMobil has no plans on how to deal with the bursting of the Carbon Bubble. If you had to make out a list of the Too Big To Fail companies, ExxonMobil would surely be near the top of the list. That means that when ExxonMobil goes down in flames, it will be the taxpayers who are called on to bail them out of their misery. Just like General Motors in 2008 in fact. That's not only a shame, it's a disgrace for the public, which have been misled and lied to by the fossil fuel companies for several decades.
|Bill McKibben, author of "The End of Nature" and head of 350.org, talks about efforts to bring awareness to climate change and global warming. He speaks with Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
Wednesday, November 04, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. How will the upward wedge on the SPX break? Two possibilities present themselves.|
Tuesday, November 03, 2015
Monday, November 02, 2015
Sunday, November 01, 2015
Leading scientists, business figures, academics and MPs have called on world leaders to adopt the Global Apollo Program (GAP) by the time of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, in December 2015.
The GAP plan for internationally coordinated RD&D (research, development and demonstration) into renewable energy technology aims to make renewable energy cheaper than fossil fuels.
This can be achieved by increasing governments spending on research to $15bn a year for the next 10 years.
That compares to almost $100 billion currently invested in defence R&D globally each year.
For more information visit www.globalapolloprogram.org or follow us on Twitter @global_apollo.
Climate change is the greatest threat to global stability and prosperity. By 2035 the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will exceed the critical level consistent with a temperature rise of less than 2˚C.
There is no shortage of energy on earth. The sun delivers 5000 times more power to the surface of the earth than humanity needs. The cost of renewables has been falling. But not fast enough. Renewable energy gets less than 2% of the world’s publicly funded RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration).
The Global Apollo Program’s aim is to accelerate the decarbonisation of the world economy through more rapid technical progress, achieved through an internationally-coordinated program of research and development over a 10-year period.
The Program will focus on several key areas: generation from renewables, electricity storage, grid management, the electrification of transport, and the use of hydrogen.
The results of all research will be made public but patentable intellectual property will be protected and remain with those who made the discoveries.
This strategy is about making energy cheaper and cleaner. It is an optimistic, pro-growth, pro-technology, pro-business solution.
This is the greatest scientific challenge in the world today but it is solvable. We can create a world powered by limitless clean energy.
Official Website: The Global Apollo Program To Combat Climate Change
Saturday, October 31, 2015
|The upcoming Paris Climate Conference (COP21) is just less than a month away. And, while we've seen little progress in reaching even the 2°C maximum global warming temperature boundary—already about 0.5°C too high to avoid serious climate problems—some optimism about the problem is being heard that have changed the views of many political and business leaders.
That change is a swerve away from regarding climate change mitigation as a retardation of growth to one where climate change represents a business opportunity. Ben Willis reports on one aspect of that change of heart in OP21: Political support growing for global clean energy R&D push, says UK climate envoy:
The UK government's special representative on climate change has spoken of his optimism that plans for a concerted international push on clean energy research will be given additional impetus by the climate talks in Paris in December.
Speaking to PV Tech, Sir David King, one of the co-promoters of a so-called "Global Apollo Programme" on clean energy R&D, said he believed the plan was gaining political traction and would be accelerated in the run-up to COP21 at the end of the year.
Launched in June, the Apollo programme set out plans for a 10-year, US$150 billion international R&D initiative aimed at making clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide by 2025.
The programme boasts an impressive list of co-authors, including the UK's former cabinet secretary Gus O'Donnell, the London School of Economics' climate economist Nicholas Stern and the former President of the Royal Society Martin Rees. It has also gained the backing of host of luminaries including the naturalist Sir David Attenborough and Professor Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Sir David, the UK's former chief scientific advisor and now the UK foreign secretary's special representative on climate change, told PV Tech the initiative was now also coming to the attention of energy ministers in the G7 group of industrialised countries and beyond, referring to a communiqué issued after a G7 meeting in June, in which leaders committed to decarbonising the global economy this century. "The second part of the statement was a major thrust in R&D demonstration in renewable energy technology so that we can roll out cheap energy around the world," he said. "So that's got the blessing of the G7 heads of government — they've asked for their energy ministers to report back to the next meeting of the G7, which will be next year... So it's rolling. And it's rolling in another sense because of Paris. And so there's a useful means of accelerating the process because everyone's trying to get things in before Paris."
Sir David added: "It's already with the right people — it's got the attention of the heads of government; that was the whole point of taking it through the G7. I think that all I can say at this stage is watch out for announcements. The IEA [International Energy Agency] has an energy ministerial meeting coming up in November, there's a G20 meeting in late November; these are all opportunities for heads of government and ministers of energy to develop the elements of the programme into something before Paris."
Sir David has already publicly stated his belief that solar offers perhaps the most realistic solution to the climate change problem.
In the interview with PV Tech, he added that storage technology should be a key beneficiary of the proposed R&D programme as it has not enjoyed the same support as PV from public subsidies. "The sun doesn't shine anywhere in the world at night, so energy storage and smart grids have become a part of rolling out base-load electricity from that source. And energy storage and smart grids got no benefits from feed-in tariffs," he said.
Asked what he felt would happen at the COP21 talks, Sir David said he believed a deal would be reached, but that issues such as the flow of funds from the developed to developing worlds to fund climate mitigation and adaptation activities would be a big issue for negotiators to overcome.
Concluding, Sir David said the global shift to clean energy was not a possibility but a necessity: "It's going to happen — we have to do it. So when the G7 heads of government announced they are going to decarbonise the world's economy by the end of the century, they mean it. And I believe we have, frankly, no option."
For the complete interview, click here.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds broke a key trendline, but remain near a seasonal low in price.|
|The Prince of Wales weighed in on the Carbon Bubble yesterday in a video address to leading figures from international finance in London, just weeks before the Paris climate talks begin.
Prince Charles said that climate change is an increasing source of risk to the finance community. He said that business leaders should divest from a fossil fuel industry increasingly on the skids:
There are therefore two factors to consider: firstly, whether to divest from sectors, especially those directly involved in fossil fuels, which will be severely impacted by any agreement to limit global temperatures to a two-degree rise. Secondly, whether to invest in sectors which support the low carbon economy and are therefore better positioned in terms of risk and opportunities.
Some investors, such as philanthropic trusts and foundations, will also have to consider whether continuing to invest in high carbon assets represents a significant conflict to their overall mission and objectives.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A market that's in the home stretch and it's key.|
Weakest economic recovery in seven decades gets weaker |
By Elliott Wave International
Most people extrapolate present trends into the future. But yesterday's trend can look like day vs. night when tomorrow arrives.
Almost no one expected deflation when the December 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist said:
Inflation has raged, but deflation is next.
What followed was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the weakest economic recovery since World War II.
The American economy remains weak. Growth is at the lowest level in more than three decades. ... Wages have been rising at the slowest pace since the 1980s. ... This is the weakest recovery since World War II ... . (U.S. News & World Report, August 23)
A co-founder of AOL and the chairman of Quicken Loans just graded the U.S. economy: They scored its performance near the bottom of the class.
Grading the U.S. economy, the rosiest scores from two billionaires on [October 23] would average about 68, equal to a D+ on a report card. (CNBC, October 23)
Deflationary pressures are increasingly evident.
U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1% in August. Producer prices have been even weaker. The nation's PPI fell 2.9% in August, and it's declined every month since December 2014.
These charts are from our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby:
The graphs show several key economic measures that reflect years of broad-based distress, despite historic monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The chart above of real mean and median U.S. personal income shows another long-term reversal that is hitting most Americans in their pocketbook. While the mean measure shows, on average, that personal income peaked with the real estate boom in 2006, the median measure shows that half of all U.S. citizens are earning less money in real terms than they were in 2000. The five-wave form of the rise in mean income is further Elliott wave evidence that the decline is about to accelerate.
Our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said, "Deflation is just getting started." The October Financial Forecast provided a reminder of that warning and added that deflation "is already deeply entrenched in many flagship quarters of the global economy."
Get the full picture of what we see as a worldwide deflationary trend in our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby.
Here's what you will learn:
Just recall how swiftly the 2007-2009 financial crisis unfolded. We anticipate that the next global financial crisis could be even more sudden and severe.
Bursting the Carbon Bubble: Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change
|Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change:
Oil, gas and coal companies face the mounting risk of legal damages for alleged climate abuse as global leaders signal an end to business-as-usual and draw up sweeping plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Bank of America has warned.
Investors in the City are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exhorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. "It is setting off alarm bells that there could be these long tail risks," said Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance.
Fossil fuel companies have known for decades of the risk that their underground reserves were being overvalued.
Now, it seems the movement to keep those resources in the ground is unstoppable.
While the exact contours are still unclear, Paris is likely to sketch a way towards zero net emissions later this century. It implies that most fossil fuel reserves booked by major oil, gas and coal companies can never be burned.
A deal would also send a moral signal with legal ramifications. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank England, warned last month that by those who had suffered losses from climate change may try to bring claims on third-party liability insurance.
He specifically mentioned the parallel of asbestos claims in US courts, which have mounted over the years to $85bn and devastated some Lloyd's syndicates.
Mr Carney said it would be "premature to draw too close an analogy with climate risks" and acknowledged that previous carbon lawsuits have failed, but he warned that the risk is "significant, uncertain and non-linear". The UN has already floated ideas on compensation.
This is a far bigger problem for the fossil fuel companies than asbestos and tobacco ever were.
It's the bursting of the biggest financial bubble in history, the bursting of the Carbon Bubble.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
Austin, Texas just might become the most solar powered city in America. About two weeks ago, it approved the development of a new round of 288 MW of solar power projects. Even more recently, it approved an additional 162 MW, bringing the total to 450 MW, and that is just for new projects. If these new…
Monday, October 26, 2015
Sunday, October 25, 2015
Thursday, October 22, 2015
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Big reversal today could upset some portfolios if they aren't using stop orders.|
|The Carbon Bubble came about because much of the fossil fuels in the ground can never be burned because doing so would doom our civilization. Yet, the stock market valuation of public fossil fuel companies reflect that investors think that all fossil fuels can be ultimately extracted and burned. Thus, we have yet another stock market bubble in the stocks of fossil fuel companies that will crater at some point in the future.
Kenny Ausubel writes in Epic Change -- Part 1:
In 1979 Exxon intern Steve Knisely was tasked with analyzing how global warming might affect future fuel use. Knisely projected that by 2010 there would be 400ppm of CO₂ in the atmosphere and "noticeable temperature changes." He foresaw the fossil fuel industry might need to leave 80% of its recoverable reserves in the ground.
By 1981 Exxon scientists and researchers had concluded that rising CO₂ levels could create catastrophic impacts within the first half of the 21st century. Yet starting in 1989, the same year as the Exxon Valdez spill, the company began arguing that the uncertainty inherent in computer models makes them useless for important policy decisions.
Exxon knowingly ramped up the fossil fuel industry despite the calamitous probabilities. Call it racket science. This is criminal behavior on the scale of a psychopathic James Bond cartoon villain.
In 2013, Richard Heede, a scientist at the Climate Accountability Institute, gathered a group of lawyers. He showed them that nearly 2/3 of the world's CO₂ and methane emissions dating back to the birth of the industrial era were the responsibility of just 90 companies.
The resulting lawsuits against these "carbon majors" are radical because they shift the culpability from developed countries to corporations. The lawsuits assign blame and name names. Big Carbon is taking it very seriously because a federal appeals court found that US cities and individuals suffering economic and other damages have standing to sue under the National Environmental Policy Act. The companies are also vulnerable to fraud and civil conspiracy charges for funding climate-deniers while internally acknowledging the science.
But isn't it time for a sentence of corporate death — capital punishment for crimes of capital?
Tuesday, October 20, 2015
Monday, October 19, 2015
Sunday, October 18, 2015
|Kent Moors covers the energy field and writes in Why 2015 Is the Year of the Battery, and How You Can Profit From It:
Renewable power is on the rise. U.S. wind power capacity grew by 8.3% in 2014, and total renewable electric power will grow by 5.5% in 2016.
Utility-scale solar power capacity alone is expected to increase by 100% over 2015 and 2016. And in Europe, renewable power generation increased by 84% from 2003 to 2013.
But the great stumbling block for solar energy, as well as wind power and electric vehicles, has always been storage. The sun doesn't always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow. And we don't always need power when they do.
Batteries can bridge this gap by storing renewable power for when its needed, but conventional batteries, even the most high-tech ones, are inefficient and expensive, and don't last more than a few years.
But in 2015, that's all changing.
Recently, researchers at Ohio State University announced a breakthrough battery that's 20% more efficient and 25% cheaper than anything else on the market.
That's just one of the battery breakthroughs that could transform the energy industry and create some of the most exciting opportunities I've seen.
Because whoever figures out the "holy grail" of energy storage is going to make an absolute fortune, and not just in the energy industry. The implications are far-reaching across almost every industry you can imagine (and some you can't)....(more)
Saturday, October 17, 2015
|Despite the massive loss in value of fossil fuel companies like Chevron and Exxon Mobil over the last 14 months, these stocks are still in bubble valuation territory. Many are headed for eventual bankruptcy. Thus there is a fossil fuel stock market bubble.
This is because true costs of carbon dioxide in intensifying global warming are not taken into account in a company's stock market valuation. Currently the price of fossil fuels companies shares is calculated under the assumption that all fossil fuel reserves will be consumed. An estimate made by Citi puts the loss in value of the fossil fuel companies due to the impact of the growing renewables industry at $100 trillion. According to the UK's Committee on Climate Change, overvaluing companies that produce fossil fuels and greenhouse gases poses a serious threat to the economy. The committee warned the British government and Bank of England of the risks of the carbon bubble in 2014.
The stranding of carbon assets will come about because of the free market. Of course, many fossil fuel companies will lobby government to avoid this outcome, but that's a rear guard action which will ultimate fail to prevent fossil fuels from being phased out. Already, many renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar, are more economical than fossil fuels. In 2014, for the first time, wind and solar were cheaper than coal and gas in the USA, Australia and China. Switching to electricity based transportation like electrical vehicles from fossil fuel based transportation will reduce and eliminate the demand for fossil fuels, particularly petroleum.
Once the investment world realizes that fossil fuels are becoming obselete, the value of those companies will trend toward zero. Thus, those who are buying those stocks with the expectation that fossil fuels will rebound as they have in the past are subjecting themselves to severe financial risk.
Thursday, October 15, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bearish investors big put premiums to a new all-time high despite today's rally.|
Wednesday, October 14, 2015
Tuesday, October 13, 2015
Monday, October 12, 2015
|Paul Craig Roberts recognizes Obama has come to his senses:|
|We've written about the huge opportunity of marrying storage to solar power. When the sun isn't shining, storage kicks in and fills the gap. This allows energy storage during the day to be utilized during the night hours. And, it avoids drawing power from the grid, which can be a big power savings.
Enphase says Asia-Pacific is going to be one place where it's going to profit hugely from storage:
The company plans to sell the products, which combine solar power, storage and energy management technologies, in Australia in the second quarter of 2016, Chief Executive Officer Paul Nahi said in an interview in Sydney. Enphase said on Oct. 6 that it's joining with SA Power Networks in South Australia and Genesis Energy Ltd. in New Zealand to test the systems.
Enphase expects Asia-Pacific to become a "multi-hundred-million-dollar-a-year" market for the company in the coming years and aims to get half of its revenue from outside the U.S., according to Nahi. Tesla Motors Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are among companies jumping into an Australian storage market that Morgan Stanley estimates could be worth A$24 billion ($17 billion) after a surge in the use of solar power in the country. "The fact that Australia is leading the global charge for storage has really reinforced our decision to invest heavily in this area," Nahi said.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Thursday, October 08, 2015
Wednesday, October 07, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A change-in-trend is close at hand. Watch NASDAQ for hints Thursday.|
Tuesday, October 06, 2015
Monday, October 05, 2015
Sunday, October 04, 2015
Friday, October 02, 2015
|Ion Yadigaroglu makes a good case for a different kind of punishment for Volkswagen in the Guardian today: To punish Volkswagen for its emissions scandal, make it build electric cars:
The EPA should mandate that Volkswagen exclusively produce electric vehicles within five years for the US market. This would remove the emissions from millions of cars, not only health pollutants like nitrous oxide but also more essentially the other greenhouse gases that threaten our whole planet. The company is well on its way to commercializing electric vehicles, and the $10bn fine could be put to better use by building a battery factory in the US to supply those electric models, creating jobs along the way. Add in an obligation for VW to equip US highways with electric charging stations and we'll have changed the transportation landscape of this country for the better.
Thursday, October 01, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Monthly Employment Report will set the tone for trading on Friday morning.|
Wednesday, September 30, 2015
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
Monday, September 28, 2015
Sunday, September 27, 2015
Thursday, September 24, 2015
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Markets rested on Wednesday, but with cyclic lows coming up, it's just the eye of the hurricane.|
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Monday, September 21, 2015
Sunday, September 20, 2015
Friday, September 18, 2015
If you invest in U.S. stocks, please stop what you're doing, sit down and pick up Robert Prechter's Aug. 19 investment forecast. Prechter published one of the most widely read investment letters of the 1980s, and he remains one of the most widely known market technicians in the world. On Aug. 19, before the latest spike in volatility, he warned of "pandemonium in the stock market" and a "stunning decline in US stock prices." Now you can read his complete, subscriber-level report that predicted what you see today.
Thursday, September 17, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the Fed waiting for the SPX to recover before hiking rates? You'd better believe it!|
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
Monday, September 14, 2015
Sunday, September 13, 2015
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Wednesday, September 09, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Investors continue to buy overpriced puts, expecting equities to crash.|
Tuesday, September 08, 2015
Sunday, September 06, 2015
Thursday, September 03, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Nearing the end of the pattern, the market continues to want to break and retest 8/24 lows.|
Wednesday, September 02, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A volatile trading range pattern with an important change-in-trend approaching now.|
Tuesday, September 01, 2015
Monday, August 31, 2015
Sunday, August 30, 2015
Thursday, August 27, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Upcoming cycle lows in equities should correspond to a selling opportunity in bonds.|
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Monday, August 24, 2015
Saturday, August 22, 2015
|The utilities would like for you to believe that they can do solar cheaper than you. But, it's not true.
Questioning Solar Energy Economies of Scale, 2014 Edition points out that while installing solar arrays is cheaper in quantity, the cost of delivering that power to consumers eats up all of the cost savings over residential solar. Undoubtedly, the utilities are fighting for their lives with customers defecting from the grid more and more by installing solar+storage on their rooftops and cutting the cord. Utilities want to convince politicians that they know what's best for consumers and make it illegal for individuals to switch to distributed generation of electricity. And, they're going to lie to protect their monopoly.
Yet more reason that consumers should demand government subsidies to help install their own solar panels and batteries to cut the cord with the electric utilities.
|Everybody has their conspiracy theories. Like, for instance, why the government is lowballing the odds of climate change wiping out life on earth.
Last week, the EPA released a report which lowballed the effect methane gas has on Global Warming. According to How The EPA And New York Times Are Getting Methane All Wrong by Joe Romm, the 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) of methane is 34, but the government tells us it's just 25, a figure that's 20 years out-of-date. He shows that the EPA knows that figure is out of date and uses it anyway. That means the government is underplaying the potential for methane gas to exacerbate the problems caused by CO2 in warming the planet.
The big question is whether the EPA is protecting the oil and gas industry by lowballing the facts? It certainly looks like it. Put that possibility on the table, along with the fact that Shell has been recently permitted to resume its Arctic Ocean drilling operations and the fact is that the government is not trying to limit the damage from greenhouse gasses—it's trying to protect the big polluters who are likely bribing government bureaucrats.
And, once again, the truth is that the government is not the solution to climate change. It's part of the problem. It will be up to private citizens to act to end climate change, not the public officials who are secretly being enriched by the 1%.
Friday, August 21, 2015
In this just-released report, you'll see new excerpts from our two flagship monthly publications, The Elliott Wave Theorist and The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Get valuable insight into the volatility we saw in the markets this week. We think you'll come away better prepared than most investors.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Gold miners continue to rise as we're early days in a new intermediate term T.|
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Crazy intraday volatility in equities as the bond market heads for a significant turn.|
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
Monday, August 17, 2015
Saturday, August 15, 2015
|Ramez Naam writes in How Cheap Can Solar Get? Very Cheap Indeed “If current rates of improvement hold, solar will be incredibly cheap by the time it’s a substantial fraction of the world’s electricity supply.” He concludes:
If solar electricity continues its current learning rate, by the time solar capacity triples to 600GW (by 2020 or 2021, as a rough estimate), we should see unsubsidized solar prices of roughly 4.5¢ / kWh for very sunny places (the US southwest, the Middle East, Australia, parts of India, parts of Latin America), ranging up to 6.5¢ / kWh for more moderately sunny areas (almost all of India, large swaths of the US and China, southern and central Europe, almost all of Latin America).
And beyond that, by the time solar scale has doubled 4 more times, to the equivalent of 16% of today's electricity demand (and somewhat less of future demand), we should see solar at 3¢ per kWh in the sunniest areas, and 4.5¢ per kWh in moderately sunny areas.
If this holds, solar will cost less than half what new coal or natural gas electricity cost, even without factoring in the cost of air pollution and carbon pollution emitted by fossil fuel power plants.
As crazy as this projection sounds, it's not unique. IEA, in one of its scenarios, projects 4¢ per kWh solar by mid century.
Fraunhofer ISE goes farther, predicting solar as cheap as 2 euro cents per kWh in the sunniest parts of Europe by 2050.
Obviously, quite a bit can happen between now and then. But the meta-observation is this: Electricity cost is now coupled to the ever-decreasing price of technology. That is profoundly deflationary. It's profoundly disruptive to other electricity-generating technologies and businesses. And it's good news for both people and the planet.
Friday, August 14, 2015
These excerpts from Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave Theorist highlight the flaws in the conventional approach to forecasting oil prices -- and show you why oil fooled almost everyone.
Thursday, August 13, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Everyone out of the pool" is the message. Where it's coming from is key.|
Wednesday, August 12, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today's reversal in stocks and bonds came just where seasonals called for.|
Tuesday, August 11, 2015
|Every time you buy pizza at Papa Johns, you're supporting the Koch empire of climate denial. We are going up against the greatest challenge to the continued existence of life on Earth, folks. Support for the climate deniers is simply insanity in action. We must boycott any climate denier and Papa Johns is the latest denier which must be boycotted. For more information, see American Family Voices.|
Monday, August 10, 2015
Sunday, August 09, 2015
Thursday, August 06, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What will the central banks do when the stock market finally crashes? There's the rub.|
Wednesday, August 05, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Rats Deserting the Sinking Ships" accurately describes Disney and the Dow Industrials.|
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
Monday, August 03, 2015
Sunday, August 02, 2015
Friday, July 31, 2015
This eye-opening complimentary report, which represents more than 10 years of research, goes beyond the Fed's history and government mandate; it digs into the Fed's real motivations for being the United States' "lender of last resort."
Thursday, July 30, 2015
Wednesday, July 29, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It's been a nice rally, especially in the Dow. What's next?|
|The inexorable Law of Supply and Demand is at work. Robert Scribbler writes in Climate Change Changes Everything — Massive Capital Flight From Fossil Fuels Now Under Way:
|One of the biggest problems is the availability of clean water. A group in Egypt may have found an answer which uses free energy from space—the sun, in other words.
Innovative System to Extract Water from Air Using Solar Energy describes a way to extract water from the air using free energy from space. It works by adsorbing water during the day out of the air and collecting it in a tank at night. It costs about $100 to build and just works to produce up to 2.3 L of water per square meter.
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
Monday, July 27, 2015
|The Democratic candidates for the 2016 Presidential campaign seem to be coming together to make Global Warming the main issue. ThinkProgress reports:
If the Democrats make Global Warming the central issue in the campaign, the Republican Party will be facing very strong headwinds, making their hold on Congress tenuous at best. And, recapturing the White House for the GOP virtually impossible.
The biggest worry, though: Getting a Democratic sweep of the Congress and the Presidency and then seeing a replay of the Clinton-Gore Administration, which dropped the ball on Global Warming. They weren't even as effective as the Bush-Cheney Republican Administration which followed them in office.
|By Ron Paul, originally published at Ron Paul Institute For Peace and Prosperity.
Last week, Retired General Wesley Clark, who was NATO commander during the US bombing of Serbia, proposed that “disloyal Americans” be sent to internment camps for the “duration of the conflict.” Discussing the recent military base shootings in Chattanooga, TN, in which five US service members were killed, Clark recalled the internment of American citizens during World War II who were merely suspected of having Nazi sympathies. He said: “back then we didn’t say ‘that was freedom of speech,’ we put him in a camp.”