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Monday, September 29, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Big trend change is coming in equities.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

National Science Foundation: California Drought Linked to Man-Made Global Warming

Climate deniers will hate it. But, they'll have to live with it. The reality of the climate change crisis is not deniable by any rational person—but, of course, the deniers aren't rational and will never accept the proven fact that climate change is caused mostly by humans burning fossil fuels. Now, the National Science Foundation tells us:
The atmospheric conditions associated with the unprecedented drought in California are very likely linked to human-caused climate change, researchers report.
Climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University and colleagues used a novel combination of computer simulations and statistical techniques to show that a persistent region of high atmospheric pressure over the Pacific Ocean--one that diverted storms away from California--was much more likely to form in the presence of modern greenhouse gas concentrations.
The result, published today in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is one of the most comprehensive studies to investigate the link between climate change and California's ongoing drought.
"Our research finds that extreme atmospheric high pressure in this region--which is strongly linked to unusually low precipitation in California--is much more likely to occur today than prior to the emission of greenhouse gases that began during the Industrial Revolution in the 1800s," says Diffenbaugh.
The exceptional drought crippling California is by some measures the worst in state history.
Combined with unusually warm temperatures and stagnant air conditions, the lack of precipitation has triggered a dangerous increase in wildfires and incidents of air pollution across the state.
The water shortage could result in direct and indirect agricultural losses of at least $2.2 billion and lead to the loss of more than 17,000 seasonal and part-time jobs in 2014 alone.
Such effects have prompted a drought emergency in the state; the federal government has designated all 58 California counties as natural disaster areas.
"In the face of severe drought, decision-makers are facing tough choices about the allocation of water resources for urban, agricultural and other crucial needs," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.
"This study places the current drought in historical perspective and provides valuable scientific information for dealing with this grave situation. "
Scientists agree that the immediate cause of the drought is a particularly tenacious "blocking ridge" over the northeastern Pacific--popularly known as the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, or "Triple R"--that prevented winter storms from reaching California during the 2013 and 2014 rainy seasons.
Blocking ridges are regions of high atmospheric pressure that disrupt typical wind patterns in the atmosphere.
"Winds respond to the spatial distribution of atmospheric pressure," says Daniel Swain of Stanford, lead author of the paper.
"We have seen this amazingly persistent region of high pressure over the northeastern Pacific for many months, which has substantially altered atmospheric flow and kept California largely dry."
The Triple R was exceptional for both its size and longevity.
While it dissipated briefly during the summer months of 2013, it returned by fall 2013 and persisted through much of the winter, California's wet season.
"At its peak in January 2014, the Triple R extended from the subtropical Pacific between California and Hawaii to the coast of the Arctic Ocean north of Alaska," says Swain, who coined the term "ridiculously resilient ridge" to highlight the persistent nature of the blocking ridge.
Like a large boulder that has tumbled into a narrow stream, the Triple R diverted the flow of high-speed air currents known as the jet stream far to the north, causing Pacific storms to bypass not only California, but also Oregon and Washington.
As a result, rain and snow that would normally fall on the West Coast were instead re-routed to Alaska and as far north as the Arctic Circle.
An important question for scientists and decision-makers has been whether human-caused climate change has influenced the conditions responsible for California's drought.
Given the important role of the Triple R, Diffenbaugh and colleagues set out to measure the probability of such extreme ridging events.
The team first assessed the rarity of the Triple R in the context of the 20th century historical record.
Analyzing the period since 1948, for which comprehensive atmospheric data are available, the researchers found that the persistence and intensity of the Triple R in 2013 were unrivaled by any previous event.
To more directly address the question of whether climate change played a role in the probability of the 2013 event, the team collaborated with scientist Bala Rajaratnam, also of Stanford.
Rajaratnam applied advanced statistical techniques to a large suite of climate model simulations.
Using the Triple R as a benchmark, Rajaratnam compared geopotential heights--an atmospheric property related to pressure--between two sets of climate model experiments.
One set mirrored the present climate, in which the atmosphere is growing increasingly warmer due to human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
In the other set of experiments, greenhouse gases were kept at a level similar to those that existed just prior to the Industrial Revolution.
The researchers found that the extreme heights of the Triple R in 2013 were at least three times as likely to occur in the present climate as in the preindustrial climate.
They also found that such extreme values are consistently tied to unusually low precipitation in California, and to the formation of atmospheric ridges over the northeastern Pacific.
"We've demonstrated with high statistical confidence that large-scale atmospheric conditions similar to those of the Triple R are far more likely to occur now than in the climate before we emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases," Rajaratnam says.
"In using these advanced statistical techniques to combine climate observations with model simulations, we've been able to better understand the ongoing drought in California," Diffenbaugh adds.
"This isn't a projection of 100 years in the future. This is an event that is more extreme than any in the observed record, and our research suggests that global warming is playing a role right now."
The research was also supported by the National Institutes of Health. Rajaratnam was also supported in part by DARPA, the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the UPS fund.

An Epic Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Bear Market

An Epic Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Bear Market

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

Recent weeks brought the biggest confrontation with Moscow since the Cold War, a race riot, a new low in the popularity of President Obama and grisly beheadings at the hands of religious terrorists amidst a major re-escalation of the war in Iraq.

If this sounds a lot like 1968, when Russia invaded Czechoslovakia, President Johnson bowed out of the presidential race as his popularity plummeted and the Vietnam war took a decisive turn for the worst, there's a perfectly logical Wave Principle basis for it; both periods contain the end of high degree B-wave rallies. This week there was also a cyber attack on major banks and a report of the lowest summer box office in 30 years.

Near the beginning of Grand Supercycle wave III (circled) (Elliott wave labels not shown), not even the United States rated designation as a functioning democracy. But a broadening of suffrage laws in the 1810s and 1820s made it the lone liberal democracy by the end of Supercycle wave I in 1835.

The negative news causes some observers to insist that investors are in a dark mood and that stocks are climbing a "wall of worry." At last week's San Francisco Money Show, for instance, a subscriber noted that one pundit was bullish because "everyone is bearish." This contrary position would stand every chance of panning out, if it were true. But it's not even close.

Investors Intelligence recorded just 15.1% bearish advisors in their current weekly survey, which, except for December of last year, matches the lowest total since 1987. The bullish plurality in the weekly American Association of Individual Investors poll, a cautious group in general, jumped to 32.7%, the highest extreme for the year and the third highest in eight years. The percentage of sentiment indicators tracked by SentimenTrader.com that are "bullish for stocks" is zero. On the other hand, optimistic extremes, which are "bearish for stocks," have been featured in virtually every 2014 issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. These measures depict an epic optimism that doesn't just disappear; it can be reversed only by a huge bear market.

According to Freedom House, the total number of functioning democracies is 88, down from a peak of 90 in 2007. The current total remains historically high, but it's back to where it was in 1998.

Such confidence has been showing up everywhere, from the eager buying of junk bonds to elevated M&A activity, which the Financial Forecast showed in July. This month, Burger King's bid for Tim Hortons, a Canadian coffee shop chain, and other merger deals put the U.S. on pace to possibly "top the all-time record set in 2007."

According to CNNMoney, the latest big deals, are "good news because they signal growing confidence. People and businesses don't spend big amounts of money unless they are optimistic about the future."

"We've got a steadily improving economy, there aren't issues out there that will derail things," says an investment banker. This kind of supreme confidence is the hallmark of a major stock market peak.

As the events at the top of this article attest, there are increasing manifestations of negative social mood. But as the Financial Forecast discussed last month, optimism is so entrenched that even bad news is perceived as good for stocks. An example that we cited last month was the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and its enemies, which investors quickly labeled as an opportunity to buy stocks. Not so. The August issue of the Financial Forecast included a chart that shows similar outbreaks accompanying most of the major stock market tops since 1929.

Negative economic news is also cropping up, but every bad number simply evokes a cry of "Buying opportunity!" from investors. When word hit on August 13 of an unexpected stall in July U.S. retail sales, investors saw "the silver lining."

"Shockingly bad economic data in Europe" says a Bloomberg article, "is being treated as good news by the markets."

Many of these calls are rooted in the belief in an omnipotent U.S. Federal Reserve.

"Investors who say, 'It's up too much, you can't buy it' have been playing a fool's game," said a money manager. "The Fed's not about to rein in the economy any time soon."

Under the headline, "Markets Rarely Crater in Periods of Carefulness," The Wall Street Journal on August 14 noted that "stocks are heavily dependent on Fed support."

We'll stick with our unpopular and contrary view on this one: Unbridled faith in central bankers and their money printing efforts is not "careful," it's cavalier. Believing in the Fed's omnipotence is the biggest and most dangerous investment myth of all time, and it will end unhappily for bullish investors.

To continue reading Hochberg and Kendall's 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here to join EWI's free Investors Open House now.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Inside Look: An Epic Optimism that Can Be Reversed Only by a Huge Bear Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Sunday, September 28, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. The next wave up is getting started as the economy rolls over.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Made In Space: 3D Printing On The Space Station

The first 3D printer arrived on the International Space Station last week. It promises to revolutionize transportation of objects into space by transmitting instructions from Earth to the ISS and executing them on the printer. Up to 30% of the items needed on the ISS can be printed on a 3D printer. A report on the new printer explains the process.
I'm pretty jaded when it comes to start-ups suggesting that their product will "disrupt" everything, but, as hyperbolic and cliche as it might sound, the Zero-G Printer arriving to the ISS really is "only the beginning". In the short term, the Made In Space machine can produce tools on the ISS. Whether in the case of an Apollo 13-style emergency or run-of-the-mill astronaut activities, crew members will be able to manufacture, on demand, components critical or quotidian. According to the company, 30% of the spare parts currently aboard the ISS can be manufactured with their 3D printer. With a single shipment of filament, the space station would no longer need to await parts flown up to them, costing valuable weight and space on a given spacecraft that could be used for other items. As 3D printing technology improves, including the variety of materials, the potential for what types of object can be printed will increase the usefulness of a printer in space greatly.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

Rockefellers Dump Fossil Fuel Investments

Last week, Rockefeller heirs dumped their investments in fossil fuels in favor of renewable energy. The fortune built by John D. Rockefeller was based upon oil and now it has come time to change to clean energy.

Rockefeller's great grandson said:

John D Rockefeller, the founder of Standard Oil, moved America out of whale oil and into petroleum.
We are quite convinced that if he were alive today, as an astute businessman looking out to the future, he would be moving out of fossil fuels and investing in clean, renewable energy.

How To Tell Iran Is Lying About Nuclear Power

Some people believe Iran when they say their nuclear program is aimed at peaceful production of electrical energy. There's a good reason that you should not believe them and that's the simple fact that nuclear is far inferior to solar.

There's a good reason why we aren't building any new nuclear plants anymore. That reason is that nuclear simply cannot compete with solar. As we have said many times, solar will become the predominant source of energy in the next decade.

Here's what Ray Kurzweil has to say:

Solar power has been doubling every two years for the past 30 years — as costs have been dropping. He says solar energy is only six doublings — or less than 14 years — away from meeting 100 percent of today's energy needs. Energy usage will keep increasing, so this is a moving target. But, by Kurzweil's estimates, inexpensive renewable sources will provide more energy than the world needs in less than 20 years. Even then, we will be using only one part in 10,000 of the sunlight that falls on the Earth.
In places such as Germany, Spain, Portugal, Australia, and the Southwest United States, residential-scale solar production has already reached “grid parity” with average residential electricity prices. In other words, it costs no more in the long term to install solar panels than to buy electricity from utility companies. The prices of solar panels have fallen 75% in the past five years alone and will fall much further as the technologies to create them improve and scale of production increases. By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world. Within the next decade, it will cost a fraction of what fossil fuel-based alternatives do.
It isn't just solar production that is advancing at a rapid rate; there are also technologies to harness the power of wind, biomass, thermal, tidal, and waste-breakdown energy, and research projects all over the world are working on improving their efficiency and effectiveness. Wind power, for example, has also come down sharply in price and is now competitive with the cost of new coal-burning power plants in the United States. It will, without doubt, give solar energy a run for its money. There will be breakthroughs in many different technologies, and these will accelerate overall progress.
Thus, it's not hard to tell that Iran is lying about nuclear power. It doesn't take a weatherman to smoke out the lies Iran would have you believe about their nuclear program.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Wave 3 down had more to come, surprising the buy-the-dippers.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Nice dip and traders made a lot money today.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Elliott Wave International's Open House Starts Thursday at Noon

EWI is, for the first time, set to open up all of their services for free to the public this Thursday at noon Eastern. The Open House will end next Wednesday, so sign up today: SIGNUP HERE and obtain access to a preview video right now.

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A trend reversal is nearing. Will you capture your open position profits in time?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Punk Economics: Tomorrow's Ireland -DoneDeal - Farming Report (Video)

Hedge Funds Surpass 2007 Leverage; New Era of 'Permanent Investigations' Confirms Imminent Reversal

Hedge Funds Surpass 2007 Leverage; New Era of 'Permanent Investigations' Confirms Imminent Reversal

By Elliott Wave International

Editor's note: The following article was republished here with permission from the co-editors of the September issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a publication of Robert Prechter's Elliott Wave International, the world's largest financial forecasting firm. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 1, EWI is throwing open the doors to all of its investor services 100% free. Click here to join EWI's free Investor Open House now.

Hedge funds are further out on the same limb they occupied in 2007, right before the collapse shown on this chart of the HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index.

According to Eurekahedge, a global hedge fund monitoring service, hedge funds' gross assets hit 170% of capital in January, which surpasses the previous peak of 168% in 2007.

Leverage at many of the largest hedge funds is far higher.

For instance, in April, the New York Post noted that Citadel Investment Group, one of the 25 biggest US hedge funds, had implied leverage of about 8.8 times its total investment capital. The Post also noted that Citadel's "leverage last came under scrutiny in 2008, when it had to unwind a leverage of 8.2 times as the financial crisis unfolded."

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast asserted in April that hedge funds will be even more of a focal point for losses in the next wave down. The chart of the HFRX Index shows that global hedge fund performance has been essentially flat since 2011. The A-B-C rally from 2009 has now retraced 63% (5/8) of the decline from 2007-2008, so an even more precipitous downtrend seems near for hedge funds.

The U.S. Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations confirms the imminence of a reversal.

In July, Congress opened a major probe into the inner workings of the hedge fund industry. A report from one set of hearings is titled "Abuse of Structured Products: Misusing Basket Options to Avoid Taxes and Leverage Limits." The subcommittee recommended that regulators "take steps to examine complex financial arrangements."

It never fails. When a mania ends, the instruments of the uptrend are often subject to recrimination and "reform."

In the early 1930s, there was the Pecora Commission, which led to the Glass-Steagall Banking Act of 1933. This is a bigger peak, so the politicians will extract more than just their average pound of flesh.

To continue reading Hochberg and Kendall's 10-page issue of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, click here to join EWI's free Investors Open House now.


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Hedge Funds Surpass 2007 Leverage; New Era of 'Permanent Investigations' Confirms Imminent Reversal. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The Coming Era of Free Energy

We've explained many times that the future will bring us virtually free energy. The argument is sound, but most people simply can't accept the fact that we already have a running fusion reactor which is providing us with 10,000 times as much energy as we currently use.

Of course, the trick is in capturing that energy, converting it into a usable form and storing it. We're talking about our nuclear reactor at the heart of our local region of the Milky Way Galaxy—our Sun. It's an all-natural fusion reactor which is safely located almost a hundred million miles away.

The coming era of unlimited — and free — clean energy presents an analogy involving a well-known and ubiquitous product you may own:

In the 1980s, leading consultants were skeptical about cellular phones. McKinsey & Co. noted that the handsets were heavy, batteries didn't last long, coverage was patchy, and the cost per minute was exorbitant. It predicted that in 20 years the total market size would be about 900,000 units and advised AT&T to pull out.
McKinsey was wrong, of course. There were more than 100 million cellular phones in use in 2000; there are billions now. Costs have fallen so far that even the poor, all over world, can afford cellular phones.
The analogy is apt. As the technology progresses, we will bring the cost of energy down to zero. The “energy deniers” have been telling us that we are running out of cheap energy and present graphs of oil to prove their point. Well, of course, we are running out of cheap energy from oil. That's absolutely certain. But, barring a major catastrophe on the Sun, we look forward to having billions of years' worth of free energy raining down. All we need is a way to capture it and use it.

Or, as Robert Heinlein wrote in his speculative fiction novel Friday:
Those who spoke of "energy scarcity" and of "conserving energy" simply did not understand the situation. The sky was "raining soup"; what was needed was a bucket in which to carry it.

Monday, September 22, 2014

Google Doing Evil

Apparently, Google has admitted it has been funding climate deniers, the lowest form of humanity, constituting pure evil, something Google pledged never to do. Well, admission is the first step toward recovery. But, are they defunding climate deniers now, or simply admitting they are evil?
Google's controversial decision to fund the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) was a "mistake," company chairman Eric Schmidt admitted on Monday, saying the group is spreading lies about global warming and "making the world a much worse place."
In an interview on NPR's Diane Rehm show, Schmidt said the free-market lobbying group's anti-climate and anti-clean energy positions are harmful to future generations, and a bad investment idea for the company. "Everyone understands climate change is occurring and the people who oppose it are really hurting our children and our grandchildren and making the world a much worse place," Schmidt said. "And so we should not be aligned with such people — they're just, they're just literally lying."
Schmidt did not say that Google had officially cut ties with the group, but did say that the "consensus within the company was that [the investment] was some sort of mistake and so we're trying to not do that in the future."
The fact that Google is affiliated with the group has been confusing to many, considering its large investments in clean energy. The company has invested more than $1 billion into wind and solar projects that in total generate more than 2 gigawatts of power, and has set a goal to eventually power its data centers with 100 percent renewable energy. With purchased offsets, Google claims its carbon footprint is zero.
Cutting ties with ALEC will not get Google off the hook for funding climate deniers, though. According to Forecast the Facts, the company has contributed $699,000 to candidates for political office who deny the science of human-caused climate change.
So, is Google simply saying that they've done evil and now they plan to continue to do evil?

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. One soaring security is due to top this week and tumble sharply lower.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, September 21, 2014

China Hits Australian Dirty Coal Hard

China is setting ash limits on coal, hitting Australian coal companies very hard:

Read more . . .

This is the wave of the future. It won't be long before dirty fuels will not be burned anymore. Clean, sustainable energy will dominate worldwide.

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have both been updated on the website. Bearish indicators abound.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, September 20, 2014

Texas Science Deniers Censor Science Textbooks

Texas isn't known for its overall intelligence, but when the Texas Board of Education approves textbooks on science which deny students the facts about Global Warming it dumbs down the entire nation. It's time for intelligent Americans to tell the Lone Star state not to mess with science facts!

Sign Petition

Friday, September 19, 2014

Scotland Decides UK is OK

The financial argument won the day in Scotland yesterday as voters just said “No” to seceding from the union.

However, secession is a serious option for some voters elsewhere, including America. Angry with Washington, 1 in 4 Americans open to secession reports:

(Reuters) — The failed Scottish vote to pull out from the United Kingdom stirred secessionist hopes for some in the United States, where almost a quarter of people are open to their states leaving the union, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Some 23.9 percent of Americans polled from Aug. 23 through Sept. 16 said they strongly supported or tended to support the idea of their state breaking away, while 53.3 percent of the 8,952 respondents strongly opposed or tended to oppose the notion.
The urge to sever ties with Washington cuts across party lines and regions, though Republicans and residents of rural Western states are generally warmer to the idea than Democrats and Northeasterners, according to the poll.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What is familiar about the current progression in the stock market?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today's Fed left no doubt about their pedal to the metal policy.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Polar Vortex Excursions Linked To Global Warming

It's pretty obvious that the polar vortex has been behaving badly over the last few years. So, it isn't any surprise that this misbehavior is linked to Global Warming. Phil Plait (Bad Astronomy) fills in the blanks in Polar Vortex Excursions Linked to Global Warming:
Over the past year or so, I've written a few times on how the "polar vortex"—actually, deep meanders or excursions in the usually stable west-to-east direction of the polar cyclonic air stream—may be tied to global warming, but there hadn't been enough research done yet to be sure.
Well, here we go: A team of Korean and American scientists has made the connection. Warmer waters lead to more melting of Arctic ice, which destabilizes the polar jet stream. My Slate colleague Eric Holthaus has an excellent write-up of it, and I wanted to give him a signal boost here. Go read it.
I mentioned at the time the idea that global warming may be affecting weather patterns, and of course the denial Noise Machine kicked into gear; I got a lot of comments and tweets mocking the idea.
Now, though, we have this new research upholding that conclusion. I'm not surprised. We know that global weather patterns depend on a lot of factors, but the amount of available heat—thinking of it as fuel might help—is a critical one. If you crank up the planet's thermostat you don't just make the climate hotter, you make it unstable.
It's like driving a car. A lot of factors have to balance for a safe drive: how much gas you give the engine, friction with the road, road surface conditions, weather, and so on. Step on the gas and you don't just go faster; all those factors play in, and it gets harder to control the vehicle. A small gust, a slick patch of highway, a pothole—their effects all get amplified. When you hit the gas too hard you're in for a very terrifying out-of-control ride.
And here we are, pedal to the metal.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is this a wave 2 bounce?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

NASA: "Climate Change in the Arctic Two To Three Times Faster"

NASA scientists are hard at work on Climate Change, which is happening faster than ever in the Arctic:

Over the past few decades, average global temperatures have been on the rise, and this warming is happening two to three times faster in the Arctic. As the region’s summer comes to a close, NASA is hard at work studying how rising temperatures are affecting the Arctic.

NASA researchers this summer and fall are carrying out three Alaska-based airborne research campaigns aimed at measuring greenhouse gas concentrations near Earth’s surface, monitoring Alaskan glaciers, and collecting data on Arctic sea ice and clouds. Observations from these NASA campaigns will give researchers a better understanding of how the Arctic is responding to rising temperatures.

The Arctic Radiation – IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment, or ARISE, is a new NASA airborne campaign to collect data on thinning sea ice and measure cloud and atmospheric properties in the Arctic. The campaign was designed to address questions about the relationship between retreating sea ice and the Arctic climate.

Arctic sea ice reflects sunlight away from Earth, moderating warming in the region. Loss of sea ice means more heat from the sun is absorbed by the ocean surface, adding to Arctic warming. In addition, the larger amount of open water leads to more moisture in the air, which affects the formation of clouds that have their own effect on warming, either enhancing or reducing it. [image-51]

“ARISE will link clouds and sea ice in a way that improves our computer models of the Arctic,” said Tom Wagner, cryospheric sciences program manager at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “Our goal is to better understand both the causes of Arctic ice loss and the connections to the overall Earth system.”

The ARISE campaign, using NASA’s C-130 Hercules aircraft from Wallops Flight Facility in Virginia, had its first science flight on Sept. 4 and has already carried out several surveys of sea ice and cloud conditions. The campaign is based in Fairbanks, Alaska.

“We are off to a great start collecting a timely and unique dataset to help better understand the potential influence of clouds on the Arctic climate as sea ice conditions change,” said William Smith, ARISE principal investigator at NASA’s Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia.

CARVE, or Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment, is a five-year airborne research campaign that uses instruments aboard NASA aircraft to measure air and surface conditions and concentrations of gases like carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane. Using NASA’s C-23 Sherpa aircraft, CARVE flies approximately two weeks per month from May to November. Now that the mission is in its fourth year, researchers are building a detailed picture of how the land and atmosphere interact in the Arctic.

In high-latitude areas like Alaska, frozen ground known as permafrost can trap large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane produced by layers of decayed plant and animal matter. As permafrost temperatures have been increasing faster than air temperatures in the Arctic, scientists have questioned whether these heat-trapping gases could be released into the atmosphere, increasing their global concentrations.

“The exchange of carbon between the land and the atmosphere is very important – but uncertain,” said Charles Miller, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and principal investigator of CARVE.

Another area of interest in Alaska is its glaciers. Researchers at the University of Alaska Fairbanks have been taking airborne measurements of glacier surface height using a laser altimeter, an instrument that bounces a laser off of the ice surface and measures how long it takes to return. These flights are part of NASA’s Operation IceBridge, an airborne campaign that studies changes to land and sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic.

University researchers observe Alaskan glaciers twice a year, before and after the melt season, to determine how much ice they have lost or gained. The scientists have surveyed between 130 and 140 glaciers going back to the mid-1990s. IceBridge’s Alaska flights have found that glaciers across the state are declining rapidly, with those terminating on land and in lakes losing mass faster than expected.

Researchers are also finding that there is considerable variation in mass loss throughout Alaska. “One glacier might be doing better than the one next to it,” said Evan Burgess, University of Alaska Fairbanks scientist and member of the IceBridge Alaska team.

NASA monitors Earth's vital signs from land, air and space with a fleet of satellites and ambitious airborne and ground-based observation campaigns. NASA develops new ways to observe and study Earth's interconnected natural systems with long-term data records and computer analysis tools to better see how our planet is changing. The agency shares this unique knowledge with the global community and works with institutions in the United States and around the world that contribute to understanding and protecting our home planet.

For more information about NASA's Earth science activities in 2014, visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/earthrightnow

Monday, September 15, 2014

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Did the market bellwether send us a great signal today?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Stocks are making a seasonal high here. The next low is in October.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Saturday, September 13, 2014

The Path To Poverty in Scottish Independence

Scotland's people vote on Thursday to determine whether they will secede from Great Britain. Although in the larger scheme of things, Scotland should have taken this action about a century ago, a Yes vote now is likely to leave the new country on a downhill slide into poverty.

The reason? Scotland gets more money from London than it sends to Great Britain. Betting on fossil fuel revenue to make up the difference is simply a fool's agenda. Fossil fuels will not provide the kind of revenue Scotland needs in the future. It's hard medicine to swallow. But, it's simply a fact that the burning of fossil fuels will inevitably be phased out due to their deleterious effects on climate. Even if vast new fields of oil and gas were to be found in the North Sea around Scotland, something that's unknowable at this point in time, governments around the world will be banning the burning of fossil fuels in the future. This will force the price of oil down, not up.

In the cold light of day, Scottish independence seems to be a certain path to poverty for Scotland.

Friday, September 12, 2014

Cyberwar: Attack World Map

China attacks the US. The US attacks China. The ongoing cyberwar in pictures: Norse Cyberwar Map.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Steady as she goes" is the phrase—until the bottom falls out!

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Climate Change Heroes

There are too few heroes anymore. But, when it comes to Climate Change, we have two heroes who prove that blocking fossil fuel combustion has its rewards. In How 2 Guys, A Lobster Boat, And A District Attorney Just Made Climate History, we have the seeds of a strategy that could pay huge dividends:
On Monday, outside of the Fall River Justice Center near the border of Rhode Island, Bristol County District Attorney Sam Sutter addressed a gaggle of eager reporters gathered for what they thought would be a multi-day hearing for two men who blocked a 40,000-ton shipment of coal from reaching New England's largest power station last May. However, Sutter shocked everyone by dropping the charges in under an hour, leaving the group anxious to understand what led to his decision to reduce the conspiracy, disturbing the peace, and two other civil disobedience charges against the climate activists. Having anchored a lobster boat in the freighter's shipping channel, the climate activists delayed the delivery of coal for a day in an effort to delay the impacts of climate change by raising awareness. Facing up to nine months in jail, they were suddenly off the hook. "Climate change is one of the gravest crises our planet has ever faced," Sutter said after explaining that the decision was made with the interests of the people of Bristol County in mind. "In my humble opinion, the political leadership on this issue has been gravely lacking."
The defendants, Jay O'Hara, 32, and Ken Ward, 57, who accepted all charges for blocking the tons of Appalachian coal that the "Energy Enterprise" was bringing to port, had submitted an uncommon and unused defense for their actions: the necessity defense. They argued that they had no choice but to act because the consequences of climate change are so dire. It just so happened that Sutter agreed with them. "As in all instances, I first had to consider the people of Bristol county," Sutter told ThinkProgress on Tuesday. "In addition to that, I had to give strong consideration to the cause that led to the act of civil disobedience. And I agree that climate change is one of the greatest crisis the planet has ever faced and that we have to act more boldly now."
Sutter had emerged from the justice center with a copy of a recent essay by climate author and activist Bill McKibben in hand. He said he found McKibben to be inspirational and that he believes "sand is moving through the hourglass" when it comes to climate change. Having come of age in the 1960s, Sutter said he is "acutely aware" of the acts of civil disobedience that took place in the fights against racial injustice, the Vietnam War, and South African apartheid, and that he placed the actions of Ward and O'Hara in that long and storied history.
Had Sutter allowed the prosecution to continue, McKibben was prepared to testify along with three other witnesses, including NASA climatologist Dr. James Hansen, to support the argument of necessity defense. Sutter said he wasn't sure if the lawyers would have been able to meet the burden of proof in front of the judge, which includes meeting four legal standards in what amounts to an emergency situation requiring necessity defense. "I was concerned that they were going to great lengths of preparation and costs and would be thwarted by the judge saying no, you cant present defense," he said. "Fortunately we were able to come up with a negotiated decision."
Civil disobedience worked in the civil rights movement a half-century ago. Maybe it's time to bring it back for an encore.

The New Road Bandits: Police

"Stop and Seize" is the new mantra of the police. According to the Washington Post, Aggressive police take hundreds of millions of dollars from motorists not charged with crimes:
The spread of an aggressive brand of policing that has spurred the seizure of hundreds of millions of dollars in cash from motorists and others not charged with crimes, a Washington Post investigation found. Thousands of people have been forced to fight legal battles that can last more than a year to get their money back.
Behind the rise in seizures is a little-known cottage industry of private police-training firms that teach the techniques of "highway interdiction" to departments across the country.
One of those firms created a private intelligence network known as Black Asphalt Electronic Networking & Notification System that enabled police nationwide to share detailed reports about American motorists — criminals and the innocent alike — including their Social Security numbers, addresses and identifying tattoos, as well as hunches about which drivers to stop.
Many of the reports have been funneled to federal agencies and fusion centers as part of the government's burgeoning law enforcement intelligence systems — despite warnings from state and federal authorities that the information could violate privacy and constitutional protections.
A thriving subculture of road officers on the network now competes to see who can seize the most cash and contraband, describing their exploits in the network's chat rooms and sharing "trophy shots" of money and drugs. Some police advocate highway interdiction as a way of raising revenue for cash-strapped municipalities. "All of our home towns are sitting on a tax-liberating gold mine," Deputy Ron Hain of Kane County, Ill., wrote in a self-published book under a pseudonym. Hain is a marketing specialist for Desert Snow, a leading interdiction training firm based in Guthrie, Okla., whose founders also created Black Asphalt.
Hain's book calls for "turning our police forces into present-day Robin Hoods."
Cash seizures can be made under state or federal civil law. One of the primary ways police departments are able to seize money and share in the proceeds at the federal level is through a long-standing Justice Department civil asset forfeiture program known as Equitable Sharing. Asset forfeiture is an extraordinarily powerful law enforcement tool that allows the government to take cash and property without pressing criminal charges and then requires the owners to prove their possessions were legally acquired.
The practice has been controversial since its inception at the height of the drug war more than three decades ago, and its abuses have been the subject of journalistic exposés and congressional hearings. But unexplored until now is the role of the federal government and the private police trainers in encouraging officers to target cash on the nation's highways since 9/11. "Those laws were meant to take a guy out for selling $1 million in cocaine or who was trying to launder large amounts of money," said Mark Overton, the police chief in Bal Harbour, Fla., who once oversaw a federal drug task force in South Florida. "It was never meant for a street cop to take a few thousand dollars from a driver by the side of the road."
To examine the scope of asset forfeiture since the terror attacks, The Post analyzed a database of hundreds of thousands of seizure records at the Justice Department, reviewed hundreds of federal court cases, obtained internal records from training firms and interviewed scores of police officers, prosecutors and motorists.
When the police turn bad, you know that human society is truly crumbling to dust right before your eyes.

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bearish divergences continue to warn investors of a tsunami coming in stocks.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

New Meaning For B2B: Brain-To-Brain

B2B Means Brain-To-Brain Communication now as researchers have demonstrated over a 5000-mile hookup. The research, published in PLOS ONE (open access):
Human sensory and motor systems provide the natural means for the exchange of information between individuals, and, hence, the basis for human civilization. The recent development of brain-computer interfaces (BCI) has provided an important element for the creation of brain-to-brain communication systems, and precise brain stimulation techniques are now available for the realization of non-invasive computer-brain interfaces (CBI). These technologies, BCI and CBI, can be combined to realize the vision of non-invasive, computer-mediated brain-to-brain (B2B) communication between subjects (hyperinteraction). Here we demonstrate the conscious transmission of information between human brains through the intact scalp and without intervention of motor or peripheral sensory systems. Pseudo-random binary streams encoding words were transmitted between the minds of emitter and receiver subjects separated by great distances, representing the realization of the first human brain-to-brain interface. In a series of experiments, we established internet-mediated B2B communication by combining a BCI based on voluntary motor imagery-controlled electroencephalographic (EEG) changes with a CBI inducing the conscious perception of phosphenes (light flashes) through neuronavigated, robotized transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), with special care taken to block sensory (tactile, visual or auditory) cues. Our results provide a critical proof-of-principle demonstration for the development of conscious B2B communication technologies. More fully developed, related implementations will open new research venues in cognitive, social and clinical neuroscience and the scientific study of consciousness. We envision that hyperinteraction technologies will eventually have a profound impact on the social structure of our civilization and raise important ethical issues.

Gasoline Consumption Declining

The government's EIA reports:
During the first quarter of 2013, gasoline consumption increased by only 6,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) over the same period during 2012. By the fourth quarter of 2013 the year-over-year increase in gasoline consumption had risen to an average 320,000 bbl/d.
This increase in consumption did not persist for long. During first-quarter 2014, consumption averaged 66,000 bbl/d higher than the same period in 2013. (The Federal Highway Administration reports a similar increase of 62,000 bbl/d for the first quarter of 2014.) During the second quarter of 2014, consumption began to show year-over-year declines in May and June, with an average increase for the period of 20,000 bbl/d. EIA expects continuing year-over-year declines during the second half of 2014, averaging 79,000 bbl/d.
The general outlook for motor gasoline is for declining consumption as average new vehicle fuel economy continues to improve. As new cars replace less-efficient older cars, the increase in the average fleet fuel economy is expected to outpace the growth in the driving age population and vehicle miles traveled and put continuing downward pressure on gasoline consumption.

Short-Term Energy Outlook

The US Energy Information Administration reports:
  • Driven in large part by falling crude oil prices, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices fell to an average of $3.49/per gallon (gal) in August, 12 cents below the July average and 21 cents below the average in June. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are projected to continue to decline to an average of $3.18/gal in December, 12 cents lower than projected in last month's STEO. EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $3.51/gal in 2013, to average $3.46/gal in 2014 and $3.41/gal in 2015, 4 cents lower and 6 cents lower than last month's STEO, respectively.
  • Weakening global demand and increased Libyan oil exports contributed to a drop in the North Sea Brent crude oil spot price to an average of $102 per barrel (bbl) in August, $5/bbl lower than the July average and $10/bbl below the average in June. For the first time in 14 months, average Brent spot prices fell outside the relatively narrow $5/bbl range between $107/bbl and $112/bbl. EIA projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $103/bbl in fourth-quarter 2014 and $103/bbl in 2015, $5/bbl and $2/bbl lower than forecast in last month's STEO, respectively. The WTI discount to Brent, which averaged $11/bbl in 2013, is expected to average $8/bbl in both 2014 and 2015.
  • Total U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.6 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in August, the highest monthly production since July 1986. Total crude oil production, which averaged 7.5 million bbl/d in 2013, is expected to average 9.5 million bbl/d in 2015, 0.2 million bbl/d higher than projected in last month's STEO. If achieved, the 2015 forecast would be the highest annual average crude oil production since 1970. Natural gas plant liquids production increases from an average of 2.6 million bbl/d in 2013 to 3.1 million bbl/d in 2015. The growth in domestic liquids production has contributed to a significant decline in petroleum imports. The share of total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 32% in 2013. EIA expects the net import share to decline to 21% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1968.
  • Natural gas spot prices fell 15% from an average of $4.59/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in June to $3.91/MMBtu in August even as natural gas stock builds continued to outpace historical norms. Natural gas working inventories on August 29 totaled 2.71 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), 0.47 Tcf (15%) below the level at the same time a year ago and 0.50 Tcf (15%) below the previous five-year average (2009-13). Projected natural gas working inventories reach 3.48 Tcf at the end of October, 0.34 Tcf below the level at the same time last year. EIA expects that the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $3.73 per MMBtu in 2013, will average $4.46/MMBtu in 2014 and $3.87/MMBtu in 2015.

Free Market: Eliminating Coal As A Fuel (Other Fossil Fuels Will Follow)

While we don't claim the market is free (just look at the Fed and you know just how unfree the market is), we do claim that market forces are hard at work at eliminating fossil fuels. Take coal for example:



Next, we'll see other fossil fuels on a similar bumpy, but downtrendy, decline to oblivion, replaced by renewables, especially solar.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bulls would call today's selloff "ugly," but was it really a sign of a top?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Monday, September 08, 2014

Climate Change Deniers Are Actually Liberals At Heart

Those who deny climate charge are at heart liberals. They may proclaim themselves conservative, but they are working toward a society they would consciously reject: more government control and less freedom.

It turns out that climate deniers are actually afraid to face reality. Climate scientists tell us that if we don't do something soon, the deteriorating environment on Earth will force governments to restrict freedom to contribute to climate change. By denying the reality of climate change, the deniers are making it more and more likely that government will be taking those negative actions in the future.

Thus, we have the strange situation where the deniers are working to implement the opposite of what they profess to believe: a government which forces restrictions on individual liberty.

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Tech indices still strong, but the fruit is ripening on the tree.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

A Drone's Eye View of Richard Branson's Caribbean Island (Video)

Richard Branson recently invested in Chris Anderson's 3D Robotics. Anderson writes in his blog:
Finally, I can talk about what I did this summer! Richard Branson, one of my heroes both as an entrepreneur and aviation pioneer, is a 3D Robotics investor. Not only is it thrilling to be part of his network, but we also got to bring a fleet of drones to his famed Caribbean island, Necker, to tell the story of his life there from an aerial view.

Sunday, September 07, 2014

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Did you see the cover on Barron's? They've called a top.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Thursday, September 04, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. End of Trend-Time is coming soon to stocks.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, September 03, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Do humans as a group have an IQ higher than monkeys? Probably not.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1

Here's Why Trendlines Are Your New Best Friend, Part 1
See how trendlines show you lasting price levels of risk-defining support in this real-world example from this free eBook

By Elliott Wave International

If financial market speculation were easy, then everyone would be well off -- and the legendary investor Warren Buffett would be just a nice rich guy from Omaha with really cool glasses.

The reality is, successfully navigating the near- and long-term trends is exceptionally difficult. Gains can be big, but losses can often be even bigger.

Technical analysis offers you an all-you-can-watch buffet of indicators to help reduce your risk and optimize rewards. You may already be using moving averages or momentum indicators, for example -- and you know how helpful they can be at anticipating trend changes.

Well, let us introduce you to another excellent tool: trendlines.

For the past 15 years, Elliott Wave International's chief commodity analyst Jeffrey Kennedy has been using trendlines to identify high-probability trade set-ups in close to 20 markets he regularly follows.

You might be familiar with one of those markets, cocoa. In his May 2014 Monthly Commodity Junctures, Jeffrey showed subscribers how to apply trendlines to this volatile market:

So, the forecast was for cocoa to hold above the trendline -- and rally. The next chart shows you how cocoa prices did just that, soaring straight into Jeffrey's cited price target of 3200:

Jeffrey finds trendlines so valuable that he wrote a book about them! Well, an eBook: a 17-pager titled "Trading the Line: 5 Ways You Can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading."

Here's an excerpt:

Now here's a neat little trick. In Figure 2-9, we use trendlines a different way. By connecting the two lines, we distinguish the breakout point. Later, it provides support when prices revisit the same line (circled).

Or, we can count the highs and take it from an intervening low, as seen in this soybean weekly chart. The reversal that occurred in price at the lower boundary line is circled.

As the title of Jeffrey's eBook states, there are 5 ways trendlines improve your trading:

  1. Trendlines show you the dominant psychology of investors, be it bullish or bearish
  2. They define your support and resistance price levels
  3. They give you advanced warning of potential price breakout points
  4. They help you identify critical moments in time
  5. Trendlines also tell you when the trend has turned

Want to learn how to draw your own trendlines -- and gain an advantage you've never had before?

Right now, our friends over at Elliott Wave International have the entire 17-page eBook on their shelf of FREE trader resources. It's yours for the reading, right now -- at absolutely no cost.

Follow this link for your free instant download of Jeffrey Kennedy's 17-page eBook Trading the Line: 5 Ways You can Use Trendlines to Improve Your Trading (.pdf).


Tuesday, September 02, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the perpetual motion machine in stocks grinding to a halt?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Is It Time To Sell Energy Stocks Short?

Coal accounts for 43% of the grid energy in the U.S. and, perhaps more importantly 81% in China and 68% in India. Even India though, where growth has long taken precedence over environmental concerns, is looking to reduce coal consumption and since 2008, has adopted a National Action Plan on Climate Change.

Obviously the world is looking to move away from coal as such concerns become more commonplace. At the same time alternative energy sources are becoming more readily available and economically viable, so the end of expansion for the coal industry at least is in sight. It would be reasonable, then to expect coal stocks to be cheap, but many are far from it; in fact some are just downright expensive.

Then, there are the oil companies. Their products are just as doomed. And, the market is valuing them on the value of their inventory in the ground. But, what if the human race suddenly came to its senses and realized that burning fossil fuels is a death sentence for the planet? What if legislatures passed laws prohibiting the oxidation of fossil fuels? The oil in the ground would then only be worth its usage outside of burning, such as for making plastics and fertilizer, for example.

Oil, gas and coal stockholders are definitely “cruisin' for a bruisin'” at some point.

Sunday, August 31, 2014

Storage Costs To Hit $100 Per kWh

The cost of electrical storage is expected to plummet to $100 per kWh in the next few years. Currently, it costs between $200 and $250 per kWh according to industry experts.

Elon Musk recently stated that he'd be very disappointed if it took a decade to reach the $100 per kWh milestone.

Storage costs are essential to eliminate the so-called “intermittentcy problem” which tends to keep the mainstream from embracing solar energy. That problem is actually shared with conventional fossil-fuel generators. In fact, conventional fossil-fuel plants have unscheduled outages which last far longer than solar outages. But, the utilities pretend that this intermittency problem should limit the amount of renewables placed on the grid. It's only a plot by these investor-owned corporations to retain their profitability, though. With the addition of storage to solar arrays, the uptime from solar generators will come very, very close to 100% and far outstrip the service record of fossil fuel plants.

Thus, it's very important that storage costs continue dropping. We think $100 per kWh is just a minor milestone toward much lower costs. The additional storage will mean that solar-based microgrids will be feasible to keep the lights on with no intermittency at all.

If we're right, solar will become the predominant source of electricity in the next decade. And, the grid itself will likely fade to insignificance.

Obama Has No Middle East Strategy? Good!

By Ron Paul

Last week President Obama admitted that his administration has not worked out a strategy on how to deal with the emergence of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a dominant force in the Middle East. However, as ISIS continues its march through Syria and Iraq, many in the US administration believe it is, in the words of Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a threat “beyond anything we have ever seen.”

Predictably, the neocons attacked the president’s speech. They believe the solution to any problem is more bombs and troops on the ground, so they cannot understand the president’s hesitation.

Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Buck McKeon made it clear that fighting ISIS is going to cost a lot more money and will bring US forces back to Iraq for the third time. The post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan peace dividend disintegrates.

Mr. McKeon said last week:
ISIS is an urgent threat and a minimalist approach, that depends solely on FY15 funding or pinprick strikes that leave fragile forces in Iraq and Syria to do the hard fighting, is insufficient to protect our interests and guarantee our safety in time.

What does this mean in practice? If the neocons have their way, the Federal Reserve will “print” more money to finance another massive US intervention in the Middle East. In reality this means further devaluation of the US dollar, which is a tax on all Americans that will hit the poorest hardest.

A new US military incursion will not end ISIS; it will provide them with the recruiting tool they most crave, while draining the US treasury. Just what Osama bin Laden wanted!

McKeon and the other hawks act as if they had only recently become aware of the ISIS. Or if they noticed it, they pretend US policy had nothing to do with its rise.

McKeon also said last week, “ISIS threat was allowed to build and fester over a period of time.”

In fact, US regime change policy in Syria was directly responsible for the rise of ISIS over these past three years. As journalist Eric Margolis observed recently, the emergence of ISIS is the “mother of all blowback.” The neocons who want us to get tougher on ISIS, including a US attack on Syria, are the same ones who not long ago demanded that we support groups like ISIS to overthrow the Assad government in Syria. US-trained and funded “moderates” from the Free Syrian Army joined the Islamist militias including ISIS, taking US weapons and training with them.

Three years of supporting any force that might overthrow the secular government of President Assad has produced a new monster in the Middle East that neocons insist the US must slay.

Why can’t they just admit they were wrong? Why can’t the interventionists just admit that their support for regime change in Syria was a terrible and tragic mistake?

If ISIS is as big a threat as they claim, why can’t they simply ask Assad to help out? Assad has never threatened the United States; ISIS has. Assad has been fighting ISIS and similar Islamist extremist groups for three years.

Why does the US government insist on aligning with theocracies in the Middle East? If there is anything that contradicts the US Constitution and American values it is a theocratic government. I do not believe that a majority in the Middle East wants to live under such a system, so why do we keep pushing it on them? Is that what they call promoting democracy?

A lack of strategy is a glimmer of hope. Perhaps the president will finally stop listening to the neocons and interventionists whose recommendations have gotten us into this mess in the first place! Here’s a strategy: just come home.

Copyright © 2014 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
Please donate to the Ron Paul Institute

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Labor Day on Monday will see cash markets closed all day, but futures will be closed only from 13:00-18:00 ET.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Friday, August 29, 2014

Bill Gates: Wrong On Fossil Fuels

Some people believe Bill Gates is a business genius. Well, if screwing your peer group is a talent, he certains deserves the title of evil genius.

Now, Gates is coming out in favor of tradtional, centralized fossil fuel energy plants as oppposed to renewable energy. This is demonstrating either just how stupid Gates is, or that he's shilling for Big Oil now.

Don't take our word for it. Read Powering the World’s Poorer Economies: A Response to Bill Gates and Jigar Shah. The bottom line:

Can renewables meet industrial as well as household needs? India uses 25 percent of its scarce electrons providing occasional, middle-of-the-night irrigation power --- a purpose for which solar pumps are phenomenally reliable. Solar pumps work when farmers want them to --- during the day. In Chile, solar electrons easily outperform imported LNG for meeting the power needs of copper mines. In the conditions where the poor live, renewable power is more reliable and robust than fossil fuels.
It is striking that in Big Carbon's response to Jigar Shah in a Forbes blog post, the industry was forced to predict fossil fuel's continued global dominance by citing growth trends over the last thirty years. Unsurprisingly, it failed to reveal the cresting competitive edge for distributed renewables. That's akin to looking back 40 years and suggesting that today's dominance of mobile phones is a delusion.
Distributed renewables are about a decade behind telephony, but the arc of the two technologies is the same. The new world will come to small villages in Tanzania before it comes to Chicago --- just as the cell-phone revolution reached Bangkok before it dominated New York.
Bjorn Lomborg may not want to believe Jigar Shah --- or me --- on this. But he ought to base his projections and assumptions on current numbers, not outdated ones.
So, who is right? Well, in the nation with the world's largest energy-deprived population, India, a new, very pro-business and quite conservative prime minister, Narendra Modi, has cast his best with distributed solar. He is promising to give every energy-deprived Indian household solar power within the next five years.
Let's get on with the job.

Austin Ups Solar Goal By 800 Megawatts

Stephen Lacey reports on Austin's new law:
The city of Austin may have just single-handedly propelled the Texas solar market into the top-ten leading states.
Last night, the Austin city council voted in favor of a resolution that would increase the city's rooftop and utility-scale solar targets by 800 megawatts over the coming years.
It creates a plan that would build a small paradise for distributed energy companies, including a utility-scale solar target of 600 megawatts by 2017, a rooftop solar target of 200 megawatts by 2020, explicit language enabling third-party solar ownership, a floor price for the value-of-solar tariff, and a mandatory strategy to procure 200 megawatts of fast-response storage.
The plan builds upon earlier climate goals created and revised since 2010. After Austin Energy signed a power-purchase agreement for 150 megawatts of solar at 5 cents per kilowatt-hour in May, city officials asked if they should require more solar that could provide a hedge against natural gas prices.
A task force convened by the city council took a look at the potential savings offered by solar PV and decided to sharply increase goals. The resolution was written by councilman Chris Riley and championed by energy experts and environmental groups alike.
"The 2014 Task Force found that solar energy represents a cost-competitive means of securing clean peak power hedging against the volatility of fuel-dependent thermal resources, and recommended that solar energy generation should be the new default generation resource through 2024."
Chad Blevins, a financial analyst with The Butler Firm, a law office devoted to renewable energy transactions, watched the proceedings closely. He said there were a lot more serious businesspeople involved in the goal-setting process this time around compared to previous targets. "In the past, the people involved used environmental arguments to justify renewable goals. This time around, the case for renewables was based on economics — operational cost data from the utility, robust dynamic models projecting market prices and the very low PPA rates that we have seen from PV in response to recent RFPs," said Blevins.
That didn't mean that Austin Energy was fully on board. Although the municipal utility is seen as progressive in its support of renewables, executives were not enthusiastic about such a big increase in solar --- mostly because they were worried about managing it all on the grid. That's partly why the requirement for fast-response storage was added.
Advocates of the plan said it would save Austin ratepayers money and keep electricity prices in the range of the 50 percent lowest among Texas utilities.
The consumer advocacy group Public Citizen put together a cost analysis showing that ratepayers could save millions of dollars a year compared to building a new natural gas plant, assuming solar contracts are signed for $50 per megawatt-hour.
Cory Honeyman, a solar analyst with GTM Research, said the new goals will put Texas in the top-ten overall rankings and the top-five utility-scale solar rankings in the coming years.
"This plan cements Texas as an emerging leader in the near future," said Honeyman.
The plan is also representative of a broader shift for utility-scale solar around the country. According to Honeyman, there are now 3 gigawatts of large-scale projects in the pipeline in states like Georgia, North Carolina, Utah, Kentucky, and soon, Mississippi.
The surge in solar projects in states without the help of renewable portfolio standards is due to three reasons: price competition with natural gas, the need to fill in closing coal plants, and hedging against natural-gas price volatility.
"All three of the main reasons we see for justifying this goal in Austin is what we're seeing in other states, as well," said Honeyman.

Hawai'i Leads The Way In Renewable Energy

No, not California, but Hawai'i, is leading the way to minimizing fossil fuel burning in favor of renewables. Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) on Tuesday announced their intention to triple the amount of rooftop solar in the state, just one part of a plan that the companies say will make Hawai'i the highest renewable energy-using state in the country. Climate Progress reports:
Hawaiian Electric, Maui Electric and Hawaii Electric Light — known together as HECO — proposed a package of initiatives that they said would help Hawaii generate 65 percent of its electricity from renewable energy and slash electric bills by 20 percent, all within the next 16 years. While admittedly vague on how the initiatives will be implemented and how they will impact prices, the package includes efforts to increase energy storage, develop smart grids, and support community solar projects. "Our energy environment is changing rapidly and we must change with it to meet our customers' evolving needs," Shelee Kimura, HECO’s vice president of corporate planning and business development said in a statement. "These plans are about delivering services that our customers value. That means lower costs, better protection of our environment, and more options to lower their energy costs, including rooftop solar."
Much of HECO’s plans include efforts to ensure the electric grid is stable in the face of more solar being installed. The utility said it would work closely with the solar industry to figure out just how much solar can be built and added to the grid every year without destabilizing it. It also said it would plan technological enhancements to the grid, as well.
If Hawaii can indeed begin getting more of its electricity from sources generated in-state, it is likely the state's electricity costs will decrease. Part of the reason electricity costs are currently so high there is because it is dependent on imported petroleum for 70 percent of its electricity generation. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Hawaii altogether imported 93 percent of its energy in 2012. At the same time, utility-scale solar generation in 2013 increased nearly six-fold.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Was that the 2014 version of the Flash Crash this morning? Sure looks like it.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Do we have to wait for the 1% to return from their summer holidays to see a trend?

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Congressional Budget Office: US GDP Will Grow Only 1.5% in 2014

The slowing US economy will only be able to grow at less than half its historic rate this year as the CBO reports today:
The Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday forecast that the U.S. economy will grow by just 1.5 percent in 2014, undermined by a poor performance during the first three months of the year.
The new assessment was considerably more pessimistic than the Obama administration's, which predicted last month that the economy would expand by 2.6 percent this year even though it contracted by an annual rate of 2.1 percent in the first quarter.
The economy did grow by 0.9 percent during the first half of 2014.
Looking ahead, the CBO said it expected the economy to grow by 3.4 percent over 2015 and 2016, and predicted that the unemployment rate would remain below 6 percent into the future.
The economy went into reverse at the beginning of this year, reeling from an unusually harsh winter that disrupted consumer spending, factory production and other business activity.
Growth in the gross domestic product, the economy's total output of goods and services, recovered in the second quarter, advancing at an annual rate of 4 percent, according to the government's first estimate. That forecast will be revised on Thursday.

Debunking the Myth That Deleveraging Is Why US Growth Is Poor

Andrew Smithers has debunked the myth that deleveraging is to blame for slow US growth on his blog today. The reason why growth is slow is that the US economy is stuck in a long term decline in growth that predates the last recession. Smithers concludes:
First, the US recovery has been slow because its long-term capacity for growth has slowed, and the recovery cannot therefore be sensibly described as feeble.
Second, the evidence is against the growth of debt in the US being associated with growth of the economy.
And third, growth has not been held back by a wish to deleverage private sector balance sheets.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.

Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Stock Market Performance Table

Finding the Cause and the Cure For Autism (Video)

Too many synapses appear to cause autism. A cure may be upcoming:

Monday, August 25, 2014

Hurricane Sandy: Is a Successor Storm Setting Up? (Video)

The pattern looks similar, but we will know more in the next week as to whether another Hurricane Sandy is setting up. Levi Cowan describes the pattern similarity he sees with Sandy in today's Tropical Tidbits video: