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Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Fairy Tales About Inflation
The US Government produced another in a long line of fairy tales about inflation again this month. The tooth fairy found a gas station where gasoline prices were actually going down in April, which was great news for consumers who are tired of paying double the price they paid just last year. Unfortunately, to find this gas station, consumers are going to have scramble down Alice in Wonderland's rabbit hole and haul the gas out in cans one at a time.
With no pretense of even trying to cover their tracks, government statisticians have simply gone bonkers with the numbers, making them up as their managers dictate. Want lower gas prices this month? No problemo, we just find the highest price gasoline reached in March anywhere in the country and the lowest price it reached anywhere in April and, viola! we now have a month-to-month decline in fuel costs to report for gasoline. Just what the pointy-haired bosses wanted. Repeat for other goods and report to the gullible public. The Fed talking heads can point to the new "tame" Consumer Price Index as evidence that recent outbreaks of inflation were simply hallucinations consumers sometimes think they see. Surely, they say, memories of prices they saw last week were higher, not lower, prices?
But, despite the "good news" the government provided, few traders actually believed it. In fact, the bond market priced in a higher, not lower, inflation premium into so-called TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). This indicates the market is seeing through government lies, finally.
Stocks initially rallied and, although some journalists were fooled into thinking the rally was the market's celebration due to the fictional inflation numbers, the huge reversal late in the day showed that the rally was simply short-covering before the next big leg down. The smart money has been selling all month long to the gullible trading public and is heading for the Hamptons for the summer:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.52% | +66.20 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.48% | +60.99 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.01% | +129.97 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.03% | -132.24 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.40% | +51.40 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.23% | +30.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.52% | +67.28 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.48% | -61.43 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.29% | +36.80 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.29% | +37.12 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.03% | +4.29 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.20% | +25.10 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.81 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.20% | -26.27 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.10% | -13.06 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.12% | -15.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +43.72 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.24% | -31.43 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.22% | -28.68 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.87% | -111.00 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.78% | +99.53 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.20% | +25.69 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.14% | +17.77 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.38% | +48.96 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.28% | -35.49 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.65% | -82.91 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.61% | -206.33 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.48% | -189.58 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.22% | -28.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.46% | +58.81 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.55% | -70.54 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.23% | +157.28 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.69% | +216.72 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.96% | -251.44 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.80% | +103.29 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.04% | +5.62 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.03% | -4.37 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.15% | +18.97 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.06% | +7.33 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.07% | -9.28 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.15% | +18.81 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.51% | -65.64 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.45% | -57.19 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.41% | -52.80 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.81 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.25% | +31.49 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.78% | +99.53 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.03% | -132.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.48% | -61.43 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.28% | -35.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.20% | -26.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +43.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.88% | -112.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.67% | -214.86 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.19% | -152.92 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.86% | -110.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.56% | +71.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.06% | +7.39 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.14% | +17.52 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.85% | -109.00 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.78% | -227.93 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.27% | -163.36 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.08% | -138.19 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.46% | -58.71 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.82% | +233.47 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.30% | -167.34 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.96% | -251.44 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.65% | -83.61 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.89% | -113.64 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.17% | -21.93 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.16% | -20.81 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.33% | -42.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.80% | -102.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.78% | -228.61 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.44% | -184.85 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.87% | -111.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.01% | +129.97 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.52% | +67.28 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.38% | +48.96 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.20% | +25.10 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.68% | +86.65 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.80% | +102.50 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.95% | +378.15 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.22% | +27.97 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.17% | -150.08 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.52% | -66.44 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.21% | +27.49 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.78% | +100.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.96% | +250.91 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.40% | +179.78 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.17% | +149.75 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.41% | +52.32 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.04% | -261.95 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.04% | +133.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.69% | +216.72 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.63% | +80.69 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.06% | +135.61 |
The latest data confirms that corresponding quarter-over-quarter (i.e., 2Q2008 compared to 2Q2007) withholding tax receipts into the US Treasury are declining on an absolute basis (in a non-recessionary environment they typically will grow at an average rate of 5%). This fact continues to confirm that the economy is in recession. This is absolute, unadjusted cash figures. It would be hard for the government to lie about how many dollars they are collecting, or seasonally-adjust them, or create "Birth/Death" adjustment, or convert them to owner-equivalent rent, et cetera. They represent the flow of tax money which is directly related both to employment and to hours worked and the picture is that of an economy in a recession which continues to worsen.
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wal-Mart Warns
Wal-Mart reported earnings Tuesday, but confirmed the current recession is driving customers to bargain-hunt at the super-retailer. Traders seem to have been in denial about the current recession and the warning caused them to dump the stock in a typical display of irrational reaction (apparently, the crowd hates to be reminded of the facts). In fact, this may be another case of the sailor mistaking the harbormaster's tulip bulb for an onion and eating his whole estate. The value of tulip bulbs plummeted thereafter.
In the market, bearish divergence is the big theme of the month as the smart money sells and goes away:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.34% | -44.13 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.32% | -41.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.64% | -82.01 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.78% | +100.93 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.04% | -4.95 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.01% | -0.92 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -3.46 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.04% | -4.56 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.08% | -10.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.02% | -2.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.76% | +97.85 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.63% | +209.41 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.76% | -97.40 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.65% | -212.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.49% | +63.57 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.57% | +74.01 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.12% | +144.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.98% | -126.70 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.18% | +23.15 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.26% | +34.10 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.73% | +94.48 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.69% | -89.26 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.61% | +78.26 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.58% | +74.72 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.31% | +169.25 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.52% | -195.40 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.22% | -156.89 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.12% | -144.59 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.37% | -176.43 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.84% | -236.83 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +3.88% | +499.12 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.66% | -471.16 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.79% | +101.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.54% | +198.74 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.47% | -188.67 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.11% | -142.61 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.09% | -140.81 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.83% | -107.21 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.57% | -73.18 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.57% | -73.13 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.17% | -21.69 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.29% | -37.64 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.28% | +36.22 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.03% | +4.10 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.39% | -50.57 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.76% | -97.40 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.61% | -78.50 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.69% | -89.26 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.78% | +100.93 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.04% | -4.56 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.52% | -195.40 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.65% | -212.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.98% | -126.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.62% | -79.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.77% | -99.05 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -3.31% | -426.16 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.85% | -109.74 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.80% | -102.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.24% | -159.28 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.55% | -199.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.05% | -135.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.19% | -24.85 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +2.45% | +315.37 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.97% | +125.53 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.78% | -229.15 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.31% | -297.94 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.75% | -97.21 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.47% | -188.67 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.47% | -60.93 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.17% | +21.87 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.68% | -87.45 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.28% | -36.43 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.99% | +127.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.61% | -78.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.10% | +12.36 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.14% | -404.69 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.73% | +94.48 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.64% | -82.01 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -3.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.31% | +169.25 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.63% | +209.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.12% | +144.19 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.87% | +241.14 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.70% | +89.63 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.62% | -79.91 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.16% | +278.49 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.09% | +269.06 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.21% | +155.89 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.89% | +243.99 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.70% | +348.23 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.64% | +211.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.31% | -297.63 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.17% | -150.79 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.89% | +372.73 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.42% | +311.60 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.94% | +121.51 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.54% | +198.74 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.62% | +79.58 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.08% | -10.20 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, May 12, 2008
Dip Buyers Finding Bargains
Stock dip buyers flocked into the market Monday as they were determined not to let a good bargain in stocks pass them by. Having missed buying when the buying was good, they are convinced that the only path of the market is higher now. This crowd is showing definite signs of pathological behavior in the face of the evidence, but when has that ever stopped a mania? Eventually, the last of the dip-buyers will be invested. At that time, the market will resume its natural trend.
Indeed, the mania called the Oil market hit yet another record high on Monday. And, the top-pickers were quick to sell it. It seems that the oil bulls are playing a cat-and-mouse game. First, they push the market up on 7× leverage using the flimsiest of news excuses which has no real impact upon supply-and-demand fundamentals (any old news will do as long it is relates to an oil-producing country), then when the newsroom goes cold, they stop buying and take profits. The oil bears (an endangered species, but there are still a few of them around) then come in to put on short positions and ride the day-trend lower. That, in fact, happened Monday and energized the stock bounce. There is little doubt that the oil bulls will be back to force those shorts to buy at their expense on the next item of "news" that comes along.
It was reported on Friday that the highest percentage of traders (96%) in history were bullish on Oil. With that level of bullishness, the dips are going to be bought very quickly. The brave bears are definitely fighting a major uptrend in this market. Eventually, they will be proven correct as oil heads rapidly toward zero, but until the trend changes, trying to short a mania is just not healthy.
About the only thing that the government could do to stop the mania would be to impose restrictions on the oil market, such as requiring a larger deposit of margin funds to buy oil futures (right now, the buyer only has to put up 13% of the total value of the oil futures bought, four times the leverage of a regular 50%-margined stock investor). Or, it could impose position size limits on the number of contracts which can be held (the ICE Exchange on which oil trades is unregulated and has no position limits on speculators, unlike all other US futures exchanges). But, of course, the current bush Administration would never consider actually stopping a mania and helping consumers/taxpayers, despite the fact that, at current prices for energy, the entire so-called tax rebate -- all $168,000,000,000 of it -- is likely to end up being transferred straight into OPEC bank accounts. What's even more amazing is that even the Democrats running for President are not calling for this solution to the problem. Perhaps Obama isn't so much for change as he says he is? Perhaps he, too, is on the payroll of OPEC? Given the behavior of politicians, it wouldn't surprise us to find that every one of them is on the take from OPEC.
The exchanges claim that raising margin requirements would only drive speculators to foreign exchanges where the margin requirements are even less. However, that problem is easily solved the same way that money laundering is regulated: seize funds from speculators when they try to bring them back into the country. Also, many foreign countries cooperate with the IRS in sharing bank account information for US citizens. Just the threat of such action would dissuade the vast majority of speculators, most of whom already have "skeletons in the closet" they would prefer the IRS not discover concerning their foreign income (many try to shield their foreign income from taxes in sham foreign corporations).
Is this something unprecedented? No, it is not. In fact, 38 years ago, the runup in Silver was reversed by a set of rule changes which forced speculators to liquidate their positions. Silver fell from $50/ounce to less than $3/ounce. There's nothing that would prevent oil from undergoing a similar transformation today. Except for the fact that the politicians appear to be on the take from powerful oil interests.
Let's look at the hard evidence. Oil prices soared forty years ago as OPEC cutoff shipments of crude oil to the US. Alternative energy bills were passed by Congress and it appeared the nation could not afford to continue relying upon imported oil. But, in the years since, despite clear evidence that the country was vulnerable to oil terrorists from the MidEast (remember 9/11 terrorists were straight out of the MidEast), the government eliminated all of the alternative energy projects it had paid billions to create -- think the Raiders of the Lost Ark scene where the Ark is hidden in a cavernous warehouse. One of these projects we have knowledge of would have provided gasoline from waste plant material -- not food -- at just 75¢ per gallon! Yet, the project was not only shelved, but the reports produced from it were removed from public view (which, in itself, is a violation of Federal law). Although we don't claim to have a smoking gun, this can't have been an accident.
We are left with the conclusion that our government is the best government money can buy. And, foreign interests have bought it. Lock, stock and barrels of oil.
Market mania continued unabated on Monday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.02% | +130.43 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.98% | +124.95 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +236.49 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.05% | -261.77 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.11% | +140.86 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.10% | +140.33 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.27% | +289.08 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.13% | -271.94 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.96% | +122.98 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.85% | +108.54 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.62% | +206.26 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.92% | +372.16 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.64% | -208.98 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.04% | -387.42 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.75% | +222.61 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.20% | +279.87 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.04% | +387.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.86% | -492.61 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.81% | +230.96 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.83% | +232.66 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.51% | +447.75 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.54% | -451.38 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.16% | +147.77 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.20% | +152.70 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.25% | +287.20 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -226.52 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.55% | -69.87 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.21% | -26.94 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.26% | -33.18 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.49% | -62.69 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +1.00% | +126.93 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.05% | -133.59 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.16% | +147.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.46% | +313.55 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.68% | -213.87 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.61% | +204.69 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.15% | -19.29 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.17% | -21.47 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.18% | -22.44 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.09% | -12.05 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.19% | -24.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.74% | -221.97 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.95% | -121.17 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.01% | -128.56 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.11% | -142.05 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.64% | -208.98 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.64% | -208.92 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.54% | -451.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.05% | -261.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.13% | -271.94 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -226.52 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.04% | -387.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.86% | -492.61 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.27% | -162.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.03% | -259.34 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.37% | -302.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.12% | -397.50 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.46% | -440.90 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.62% | -333.77 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.50% | -191.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -3.77% | -480.73 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.38% | -430.38 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.39% | -177.51 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.52% | -321.61 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.64% | +81.73 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -4.65% | -592.73 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.68% | -213.87 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.41% | -307.37 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.58% | -201.26 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.45% | -184.83 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.23% | -29.13 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.19% | -278.61 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.36% | -300.35 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.50% | -64.36 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.03% | -3.74 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.51% | +447.75 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +236.49 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.27% | +289.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.25% | +287.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.92% | +372.16 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.04% | +387.28 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.69% | +88.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.84% | +234.92 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12745.88 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.67% | +212.26 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.74% | +476.68 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.75% | +477.91 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.58% | +329.48 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.09% | -12.01 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.39% | +304.36 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.10% | +395.69 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.51% | +192.84 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.15% | +146.03 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.66% | -84.48 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.42% | +563.37 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.46% | +313.55 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +2.53% | +323.07 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.11% | +141.19 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Lies TV Tells You
Financial TV is entertaining (sometimes), but it often repeats falsehoods without correcting them. Reporters often fail to correct or contradict their guests with the facts, hoping not to create a confrontational situation. Of course, that means they are deluding their viewers with wrong information. However, it does keep the advertisers coming back, and that's what really counts in a capitalist system, even if it doesn't benefit the consumer of the service. The definition of recession is one of those falsehoods we constantly hear repeated in the financial media.
It's a lie to say that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. It's a flat-out lie. The official definition of a recession is done by the Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. That definition is:
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
Note that it is very possible that the start of the current recession will be dated as of December 2007, despite the fact that both the Fourth Quarter of 2007 and the First Quarter of 2008 showed small positive gains in GDP. Those gains were due to the fact that exports were a huge part of gains in GDP. The weak Dollar has boosted exports to the extent that export gains represent the largest part of growth in the economy, pushing consumers to the bottom of the list. In the First Quarter, consumer spending grew only 0.6% (we think the gain was due to rising food and gas prices as the government statisticians seem to be lying about the extent of the inflation problem), but exports grew at a 5.5% pace. And, what's even more worrisome is that private sector investment actually fell at a 2.5% pace excluding residential (the latter dropped through the floor). This suggests that looking only at GDP is not the right way to determine the question of whether or not a recession has started. We suspect that the Dating Committee will eventually point to December as the "peak of activity" in the economy. Almost every other measure of economic activity has been declining, with minor "bumps," since then. That puts the current recession at six months of age right now.
Those who are buying stocks based upon the idea that stocks discount the end of a recession by 6-9 months is yet another trap and a falsehood often repeated by brokers who want investors to pay their commissions now, rather than waiting.
That second falsehood is easily shown to be the case with a counterexample. The last recession ended in November 2001. The stock market continued lower for the next 17 months, with the final bear market low in the NYSE Composite Index being put in place in March 2003. So, for 17 months the economy was expanding out of the recession, yet stocks continued to fall. Anyone who bought in November 2001 at the end of the recession had to watch numbly as the value of the market dropped 36% over the next 17 months. Of course, there are probably a few investors who did just that. But, they would have had to wait until Christmas of 2003, or 25 months later, before their investment finally broke into the black.
Of course, those who started buying on the installment plan, putting a small amount into stocks in November 2001 and continuing to invest a little bit a month, did very well over the longer term. This "scale-in" strategy works very well for those whose investment horizon is measured on the scale of several years or decades.
Scaling-in involves buying peaks and valleys. Friday's market provided an opportunity for that strategy:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.94% | -120.90 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.64% | -82.22 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.28% | -164.81 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.28% | +165.09 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.69% | -88.84 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.18% | -23.11 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.44% | -56.35 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.42% | +53.79 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.65% | -83.01 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.57% | -73.13 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.01% | -1.69 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.34% | +43.22 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.32% | -40.64 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.11% | -14.34 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.03% | +3.22 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.29% | -37.68 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.19% | +152.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.67% | -86.35 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.36% | -46.90 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.39% | -50.51 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.20% | -25.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +25.54 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.08% | +10.86 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.06% | +7.56 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.22% | +28.89 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.51% | -66.05 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.52% | +195.98 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.19% | -24.52 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.13% | +16.77 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.21% | +26.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.38% | -48.42 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.29% | +36.88 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.32% | -40.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.09% | -11.29 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.67% | -86.65 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.87% | -112.13 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.37% | +47.47 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.11% | +14.47 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.04% | +5.04 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.04% | +4.64 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.22% | +27.78 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.68% | +87.05 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.55% | +71.37 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.54% | -69.15 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.32% | -40.64 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.38% | -49.53 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +25.54 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.28% | +165.09 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.42% | +53.79 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.51% | -66.05 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.11% | -14.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.67% | -86.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.11% | +142.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.59% | +76.08 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.22% | -28.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.08% | -9.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.89% | -114.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.65% | -84.22 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.35% | +301.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.02% | +131.31 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.43% | +55.49 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.73% | +93.51 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.98% | +126.51 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.08% | +139.01 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.44% | +56.70 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.90% | +115.70 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.67% | -86.65 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.83% | +106.50 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.06% | -264.55 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.65% | +83.06 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.74% | +95.84 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.43% | +184.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +1.45% | +186.90 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.82% | +362.93 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.34% | +429.48 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.20% | -25.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.28% | -164.81 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.44% | -56.35 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.22% | +28.89 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.34% | +43.22 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.19% | +152.73 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -2.35% | -302.21 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.25% | -32.35 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.52% | +66.92 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.10% | +12.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.45% | +58.16 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.94% | -249.12 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.12% | -143.90 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.78% | -100.73 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.62% | -80.19 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.84% | -108.01 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.55% | -70.59 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.93% | -119.42 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.22% | -157.44 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.09% | -11.29 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.93% | -119.24 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.92% | +117.84 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Investors Overly-Bullish
Crowd sentiment, as measured by the AAII Sentiment Survey, shows that they are just about as bullish today as they were back in mid-October, just before the market tumbled. Although the short term traders have turned bearish on this week's dip, that longer term sentiment measure suggests that another leg down in stocks is setting up. "Sell in May and go away" is looking better and better by the day, despite Thursday's pitiful bounce:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.41% | +52.43 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.09% | -11.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.10% | +13.14 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.18% | +22.46 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.26% | +32.94 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.25% | -32.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.53% | -68.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.54% | +69.57 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.53% | +67.33 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.70% | +89.81 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.25% | +31.48 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.71% | +91.51 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.15% | +19.39 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.17% | -21.38 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.46% | +58.68 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.21% | +26.86 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.16% | -19.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.49% | +62.22 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.52% | +66.52 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.75% | +96.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.36% | +45.70 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.47% | -60.13 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.76% | +97.15 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.66% | +84.89 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.57% | +201.11 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.07% | -137.37 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.68% | +86.92 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.98% | +510.50 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.48% | +446.44 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.65% | +212.03 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.31% | -423.90 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +3.46% | +443.40 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.57% | +72.53 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.70% | +217.35 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.75% | -96.35 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.98% | -125.33 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.90% | +115.04 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.65% | +82.66 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.26% | +32.69 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.45% | +57.21 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.08% | +10.78 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.87% | -111.99 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.18% | -23.22 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.33% | -42.51 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.48% | -62.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.15% | +19.39 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.32% | -40.70 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.47% | -60.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.18% | +22.46 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.54% | +69.57 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.07% | -137.37 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.17% | -21.38 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.49% | +62.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.23% | +285.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.01% | -128.85 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.22% | -28.15 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.02% | -130.84 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.28% | +35.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.35% | -172.40 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.78% | -613.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | ||