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dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
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Sunday, December 30, 2007
End of Year Volatility
The markets were volatile and mostly directionless Friday, with Soybeans and Gold major exceptions to that statement. Soybeans plunged sharply lower, perhaps following the trend in many commodity markets which appear to have entered bear markets. Gold, however, was an exception to the rule as it thrust higher out of a contracting triangle. Contracting triangles always occur as the penultimate pattern within a trend, making the thrust the final gasp of the bull trend before that market turns down into a bear trend.
Stocks rallied, then plunged on unsurprisingly weak new home sales data, then rallied back to close virtually unchanged. Clearly, the market was dominated by daytraders while the professionals are on holiday until next year:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.05% | +6.26 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.20% | -26.98 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.29% | -38.65 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.08% | +10.83 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.14% | +19.18 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.25% | -33.47 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.26% | -34.89 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.36% | +47.86 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.25% | +33.59 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.03% | -4.47 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.05% | -7.04 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.33% | -43.73 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.80% | +107.41 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.25% | -32.88 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.23% | -31.26 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.07% | -143.28 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.87% | -116.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.33% | +177.87 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.03% | -4.12 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.13% | -18.01 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.28% | -36.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.40% | +54.06 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.06% | -7.89 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.01% | -1.56 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.72% | -96.66 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.37% | +49.64 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.00% | +401.34 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.75% | +367.99 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.77% | +235.87 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.22% | -29.26 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.95% | -127.25 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.06% | +142.07 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.69% | -92.10 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.51% | -68.62 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.39% | +52.47 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.53% | +71.27 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.22% | +29.26 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.80% | +107.41 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.25% | +33.74 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.40% | +54.06 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.08% | +10.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.36% | +47.86 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.37% | +49.64 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.25% | -32.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.33% | +177.87 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.48% | +64.23 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.54% | +72.12 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.86% | +115.43 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.22% | -29.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +1.72% | +229.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.41% | -55.00 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.25% | +33.58 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.18% | +23.70 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.15% | -20.51 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.20% | +159.84 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.37% | +49.70 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.04% | -4.82 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.43% | -191.33 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.74% | +366.02 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.06% | +142.07 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.35% | -46.19 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.52% | -69.21 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.60% | -79.62 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.87% | -116.09 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.23% | -298.16 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.70% | -93.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.75% | -100.81 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.29% | +39.05 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.28% | -36.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.29% | -38.65 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.26% | -34.89 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.72% | -96.66 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.33% | -43.73 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.87% | -116.41 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.32% | -42.28 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.01% | +1.83 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.53% | +70.65 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.04% | -138.44 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.35% | +46.50 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -0.33% | -43.73 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.96% | -128.10 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.20% | -160.33 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.66% | -222.39 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.18% | -24.13 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.50% | -66.56 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.55% | +206.54 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.21% | -161.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.95% | -127.25 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.43% | -58.11 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.14% | +152.52 |
Sentiment of option traders remained mostly neutral. However, intermediate term investors remained solidly bearish, a sign that the correction has done its job of convincing the majority that the market trend will be down in the future. Although it's always possible that this time will be different, such solidly bearish sentiment has always marked bottoms in stock prices in the past.
Our Long Term Common Stock Advance-Decline T points toward a top in stocks in 2008, however. The last Long Term T nailed the 2000 top perfectly. In this weekend's Notes (for subscribers only), we discuss what to look for in the coming year, a year of opportunity for swing traders, it appears.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Pakistan Event Weighs on Market
The market headed lower Thursday after news of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in Pakistan broke. A retracement after a week of strong rally was to be expected, but the event caused an avalanche of selling and most indices lost almost half of their rally gains:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.42% | -192.08 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.28% | -174.13 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.61% | -354.29 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.47% | +334.92 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.35% | -183.41 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.26% | -170.36 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.60% | -352.50 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.65% | +359.32 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.16% | -157.31 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.48% | -201.06 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.61% | -354.28 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.20% | -704.39 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.55% | +209.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.35% | +725.43 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.92% | -395.31 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.70% | -366.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.56% | -753.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.17% | +700.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.40% | -190.00 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.09% | -147.13 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.78% | -376.98 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.69% | +364.13 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.54% | -208.12 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.86% | -252.33 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.73% | -370.00 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.06% | +415.14 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.45% | -61.43 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.66% | -89.00 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.05% | +6.65 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.82% | -246.11 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.96% | -537.18 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.29% | +580.79 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.92% | -396.24 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.27% | +172.30 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.74% | +100.24 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.86% | +116.22 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.68% | +227.49 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.55% | +209.43 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.84% | +385.18 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.69% | +364.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.47% | +334.92 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.65% | +359.32 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.06% | +415.14 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.35% | +725.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.17% | +700.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.92% | +260.08 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.68% | +227.67 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.72% | +233.09 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +2.48% | +335.85 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +5.44% | +737.83 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +5.72% | +775.57 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.24% | +439.65 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.28% | +308.50 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.47% | +334.53 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.53% | +614.38 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +2.95% | +400.43 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.54% | +208.67 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +4.44% | +602.36 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.29% | +580.79 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.66% | +496.52 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.64% | +86.96 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.38% | +323.07 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.67% | +90.32 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.51% | +205.30 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +4.53% | +613.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.48% | +336.08 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +6.98% | +945.69 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.78% | -376.98 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.61% | -354.29 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.60% | -352.50 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.73% | -370.00 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.20% | -704.39 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.56% | -753.79 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.80% | -243.86 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.85% | -386.11 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.97% | -401.82 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.33% | -857.67 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -5.37% | -727.75 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.49% | -337.95 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.26% | -170.49 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.36% | -48.11 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.21% | -570.00 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.10% | -283.94 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -2.65% | -358.97 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.06% | -279.58 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -5.66% | -767.22 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.96% | -537.18 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.29% | -446.50 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.60% | -217.25 |
The "Santa Claus" Rally came right on time this year. But, it did turn option traders slightly bullish before Thursday morning's news. Rebuilding the "Wall of Worry," speculators in the OEX Index in Chicago bought puts (bets that the market will decline substantially by expiration Friday in January) by almost a 2:1 ratio on Thursday. These speculators, who are fairly consistently wrong on market direction, are likely to be wrong once again as the market should turn up again very soon and rally into January as the "January Effect" rally sends stocks higher, with the small stock Russell 2000 Index likely to lead the way.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Never Short a Dull Market
Stocks traded in a narrow range Wednesday, Boxing Day, as the great rally which began last week slipped into a consolidative trading range. Consolidations are the market breathing after a brisk sprint as it prepares for the next lap to the upside. The bears have all given up now and have retreated into their cozy, warm bear caves to hibernate through the cold bull market winter. Dreams of falling stock prices are only a pleasant bear dream right now.
The Russell 2000 Index, one of the favorite short sales of the bears, is now racing toward its all-time high record last set in mid-July at 856.48. That index closed Wednesday at 797.03, up 1.3% for the year. Was it really just last week when that index was showing a sizeable loss for the year? The blue chips are showing far more than that, of course, proving that the bears were too weak to make a dent in the overall uptrend. The S&P 500 Index is currently showing a gain of 5.6%, the Dow Industrials +8.7% and the NASDAQ-100 a whopping 21.7% advance in 2007.
Now, admittedly, when the value of the US Dollar is considered, those nominal advances don't look so hot. In constant dollars, the Russell 2000 is down 5.9%, the S&P 500 -1.9%, the Dow up only 1% and the NASDAQ-100 +13%. The year has not been kind to the US Dollar, but had the dollar been in a rally this year, the stock market gains would have been magnified far more as a consequence. Perhaps 2008 will see both the dollar and stocks advance together, keeping the bears in hibernation.
Boxing Day results were very quiet indeed:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.02% | +2.36 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.08% | +11.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.01% | +1.53 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.56% | +76.41 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.03% | +4.53 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.21% | +29.06 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.06% | -7.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.12% | -15.72 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.21% | +28.37 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.20% | +26.86 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.06% | +8.62 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.12% | +16.84 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.05% | -6.20 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.32% | +43.32 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.47% | +63.32 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.97% | +131.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.78% | -105.50 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.39% | +52.58 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.50% | +67.43 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.02% | +137.86 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.93% | -126.42 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.25% | -33.90 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.11% | -15.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.04% | -141.54 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.83% | +112.48 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.46% | +333.55 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.05% | +412.62 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.72% | +233.32 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.02% | +2.59 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.40% | -53.68 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.93% | -126.16 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.42% | -56.95 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.06% | -7.83 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.40% | +53.82 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.50% | -68.01 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.40% | +53.59 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.20% | -27.31 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.93% | -126.42 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.56% | +76.41 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.12% | -15.72 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.83% | +112.48 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.05% | -6.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.78% | -105.50 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.03% | +3.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.27% | -35.96 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.31% | +42.66 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.10% | -13.07 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.56% | -75.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.05% | -142.65 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.08% | +10.56 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.15% | -20.09 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.20% | +162.60 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.88% | +119.67 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.24% | +32.81 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.34% | -316.94 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.59% | +215.32 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.93% | -126.16 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.38% | -51.07 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.36% | +184.51 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.18% | -159.60 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.04% | -5.64 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.04% | -5.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.44% | -194.95 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.46% | -197.61 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.09% | +11.56 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.02% | +137.86 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.01% | +1.53 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.06% | -7.83 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.04% | -141.54 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.12% | +16.84 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.97% | +131.35 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.38% | +51.17 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.47% | +63.43 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.63% | +85.52 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.06% | +279.20 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.91% | +123.35 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.26% | +171.08 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.10% | +14.07 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.42% | -192.17 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.62% | -84.02 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.11% | -14.73 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.53% | +343.19 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.31% | -313.42 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.40% | -53.68 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.49% | +66.82 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.67% | -91.34 |
The old saying goes, "Never short a dull market." This one definitely qualifies as a dull market.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
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Sunday, December 23, 2007
Santa Claus Arrives at Broad and Wall Streets
He certainly took his time coming. On the way, he was buffetted by a fierce geomagnetic storm which slowed his navigation system to a crawl. No doubt, the services of Rudolph's red nose were pressed into emergency service to guide the way. But, arrive he did, in grand style, routing the bears from the street and bestowing gifts of rising stock prices on all the little traders of Wall Street.
After a two-year trading range, Santa promised the good boys and girls of better times ahead. And, in appreciation, the elves in charge of Quadruple Witching Day sent the market soaring higher:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.55% | +205.01 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.28% | +169.67 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.39% | +316.79 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.64% | -349.20 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.68% | +222.98 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.91% | +120.00 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.29% | +435.15 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.88% | -381.45 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.72% | +228.04 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.69% | +223.26 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.37% | +314.22 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +3.70% | +490.66 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.24% | -296.50 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.31% | -438.30 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.26% | +299.76 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.29% | +303.39 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.76% | +498.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.19% | -555.56 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +2.00% | +264.89 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.87% | +247.22 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.47% | +459.53 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.32% | -440.14 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.56% | +206.22 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.36% | +180.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.99% | +396.19 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.85% | -244.84 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.77% | +632.09 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.97% | +658.11 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.82% | +240.77 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.40% | +52.40 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.55% | +337.78 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -3.15% | -416.71 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.76% | +233.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.76% | -232.73 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.47% | -194.59 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.43% | -189.69 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.39% | -184.40 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.24% | -296.50 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.44% | -190.46 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.32% | -440.14 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.64% | -349.20 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.88% | -381.45 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.85% | -244.84 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.31% | -438.30 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.19% | -555.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.64% | -349.61 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -3.80% | -503.42 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.54% | -71.77 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.84% | -509.29 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -4.85% | -642.21 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -4.36% | -578.13 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -5.28% | -698.80 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.14% | -283.27 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.73% | -361.94 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.62% | -478.85 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -4.22% | -559.22 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -4.67% | -619.15 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.20% | -423.67 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -3.15% | -416.71 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.35% | -443.60 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.76% | -232.70 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.88% | -380.99 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.13% | -149.15 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -3.39% | -449.33 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -6.07% | -804.07 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.33% | -441.52 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -5.08% | -672.87 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.47% | +459.53 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.39% | +316.79 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.29% | +435.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.99% | +396.19 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +3.70% | +490.66 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.76% | +498.57 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +4.41% | +583.66 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +3.40% | +449.85 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -6.61% | -875.56 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.87% | +380.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.94% | +521.68 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +5.51% | +729.42 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +4.44% | +588.33 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +2.69% | +355.69 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +3.07% | +406.97 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +4.86% | +643.49 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +3.04% | +403.03 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.55% | +337.78 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +3.03% | +400.84 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.87% | +247.20 |
The Grinch wasn't pleased with all the excitement in the stock market, but took delight in the pain in the bond market as bond prices plunged on the good news from stocks. You see, the Grinch is short bonds and looking to double his money in that hugely overvalued market.
At the end of the day, you might say both the stock bulls and the bond bears got exactly what they wished for.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Thursday, December 20, 2007
Market Indices Are Bearishly Biased
Stocks continued to rally Thursday, with most of the action concentrated in the broad market and tech stocks. These are the leadership stocks and it's nice to see them taking the upper hand. It was these stocks which turned up first at the 2003 bottom to the current bull market and led the blue chips higher. For most of this year, the broad market has been hanging back, warning of problems which the blue chip indices did not see ahead. Could this be a sea change where the broad list is detecting a light at the end of the tunnel?
Several mutual funds are issuing capital gains distributions and dividends at this time of year, causing their nominal share prices to fall as a direct result of this disbursement. A casual observer might see that as a bearish sign if they didn't know of the disbursement, but it simply means that some of the profits gained by the fund have been returned to the investor. This is a legal requirement, by the way, as Congress has seen fit to require funds to disburse their profits at least every year, rather than hold onto them. This allows the government to tax that return of capital as income and penalize mutual fund shareholders. Interestingly, stockholders can defer capital gains on their shares until the position is closed out. Clearly, mutual fund shareholders are treated as second-class investors by the government for its own tax advantage. This is where a tax-exempt account (e.g., Roth IRA) really can pay off for a long term investor, since taxes are not taken out of the distribution and can continue to stay on the job working for long term gains.
Stock indices are affected by dividend distributions as well. When a company issues a dividend, its stock price usually drops to reflect that disbursement of cash and if that company is part of a stock index, the index itself drops as a result. Of course, the total value of all shares did not change, but the index drops, so it reflects a more bearish view of the market than the actual market. Thus, unless the index is adjusted to add those dividends back in, there is a bearish bias for the index. Over a period of time, this bearish bias can amount to a considerable amount. Studies have shown that, over the long term, dividends can represent half of a stock's return. Applied to an index like the S&P 500, which has barely made it back to its 2000 Bubble Top, this creates the impression that the market has not made any net progress in the last eight years. But, nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, even with dividends subtracted, the broad market indices have doubled in value since their 2000 highs. And, that's even after you adjust them lower due to the drop in value of the US Dollar!
The bears should be happy that stock indices don't reflect the true returns in stocks. Otherwise, they'd have yet another disadvantage stacked against them.
The performance table below reflects changes in nominal value without regard for possible distributions on Thursday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.29% | +38.37 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.33% | +43.93 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.75% | -495.70 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.17% | -286.44 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.59% | +77.44 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.63% | +83.29 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.35% | -442.56 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.66% | -351.25 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.38% | +49.87 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.26% | +34.45 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.33% | +176.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.59% | -210.63 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.27% | -299.84 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.71% | -490.04 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.42% | +188.12 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.60% | +211.30 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.89% | +249.98 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.77% | -498.25 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +2.44% | +322.22 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.04% | +270.08 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.17% | -154.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -5.30% | -700.29 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.18% | +155.44 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.50% | +198.24 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.29% | -302.58 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.52% | -596.73 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.15% | -19.74 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.42% | -55.22 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.72% | -95.00 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.35% | +178.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.39% | -316.17 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -3.15% | -415.98 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.10% | -12.61 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -2.90% | -383.51 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.53% | -202.04 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.76% | -232.79 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.65% | -349.38 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.27% | -299.84 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.00% | -263.82 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -5.30% | -700.29 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.17% | -286.44 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.66% | -351.25 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.52% | -596.73 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.71% | -490.04 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.77% | -498.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.13% | +17.11 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.63% | -82.79 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.39% | -580.04 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.01% | -133.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.07% | -405.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -2.85% | -376.53 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.97% | -656.19 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.85% | -243.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -3.70% | -489.21 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.40% | +52.83 | 0.00 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.87% | -246.46 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.10% | -410.00 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.13% | -17.58 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -3.15% | -415.98 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.19% | -421.00 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.62% | -81.24 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.56% | -74.14 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.11% | -147.06 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.11% | -145.99 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.67% | -88.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.65% | -218.15 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.32% | -306.06 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.17% | -154.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.75% | -495.70 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.35% | -442.56 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.29% | -302.58 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.59% | -210.63 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.89% | +249.98 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.09% | -144.46 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.26% | -165.86 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +10.65% | +1406.93 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.34% | -176.43 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.60% | +211.97 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -3.45% | -455.28 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.17% | -22.80 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.36% | -443.41 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.87% | -246.53 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.74% | -230.03 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -5.22% | -688.84 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.21% | -160.32 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.39% | -316.17 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.57% | +74.86 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -5.19% | -684.84 |
To see details of ProShares distributions, visit this page. Note that QLD had a $5.08765 per share distribution on Thursday!
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Bargain Buying By SWF's
The SWF's are on a buying spree in the stock market. With US stocks at bargain basement prices due to the subprime mortgage credit crisis and the US Dollar at a multiyear low, Sovereign Wealth Funds are finding the US stock market a discount center for cheap equities. And, they're putting their excess dollars to work buying shares.
On Wednesday, the government of the People's Republic of China, ostensibly a communist country, became the proud owner of $5 Billion worth of shares in Morgan Stanley. SWF's from nations with excess dollars are finding stock bargains to buy with prices on sale. China's purchase of a US public company's shares is one of its first forays in the US stock market, but China's no stranger to buying US assets. For years, the communists have been big buyers of US government bonds, which is one reason those bonds are selling for a huge premium to their intrinsic value. But, with the dollar down in value and interest rates on those bonds too low to offset the ravages of inflation, these SWF's are looking for alternative investments which will have a positive return after inflation. And, they're finding those alternatives in the US stock market.
But, except for the SWF's, most Americans seemed to have little interest in buying shares on Wednesday as apparently the continuing geomagnetic storm left them little appetite for investment:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.19% | -25.20 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.21% | -27.95 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.72% | -95.34 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.35% | +46.70 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.10% | -13.00 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.15% | +20.19 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.38% | +50.12 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.17% | -22.71 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.29% | -38.91 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.16% | +21.42 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -9.63% | -1274.60 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.38% | -314.59 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.68% | -90.63 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.31% | +40.71 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.61% | +80.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.63% | +84.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.93% | -123.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.18% | +23.60 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.02% | -2.65 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.92% | +121.83 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.76% | -100.86 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.07% | -9.69 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.20% | +26.64 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.32% | -42.47 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.25% | +32.78 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.94% | -124.60 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.85% | -112.76 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.01% | -1.67 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.13% | +17.17 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.30% | +171.38 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.12% | -147.82 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.11% | +14.05 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.07% | -9.60 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.27% | +35.30 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.18% | +23.58 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.13% | +17.31 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.38% | -314.59 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.42% | -55.89 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.76% | -100.86 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.35% | +46.70 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.38% | +50.12 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.25% | +32.78 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.68% | -90.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.93% | -123.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.30% | +39.55 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.22% | +29.10 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.25% | -32.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.17% | +21.93 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.02% | -2.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.07% | -142.08 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.91% | +120.62 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.31% | -41.64 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.42% | +187.93 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.35% | -46.32 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.60% | +79.77 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.63% | -83.64 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.00% | -264.65 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.12% | -147.82 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.88% | -117.06 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.34% | +44.78 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.01% | -133.06 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.78% | +103.77 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.12% | +147.91 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.23% | -295.65 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.69% | +223.96 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.49% | -197.01 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.92% | +121.83 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.72% | -95.34 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.15% | +20.19 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.32% | -42.47 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -9.63% | -1274.60 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.63% | +84.02 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.10% | -13.56 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.30% | -40.05 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.30% | +39.83 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.55% | +72.27 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.91% | +120.01 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.33% | +43.66 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.84% | +111.51 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.17% | +154.67 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.85% | -112.25 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.96% | +392.07 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.21% | +27.30 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.60% | -211.66 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.34% | +177.30 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.19% | +289.19 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.30% | +171.38 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.51% | +67.19 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.40% | -53.14 |
The transfer of ownership of US companies to foreigners has its advantages and its disadvantages. But, it does illustrate just how attractively-priced many companies' shares are today after a five-year bear market in the US Dollar and a couple of years in a stock market trading range. At November's lows, the major stock indices, in terms of constant US Dollars, were trading at the same price they were trading at in June 2005, making this year's retracement a real correction of the last 2½ years of advance.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Turning the Tide
Stocks rallied in a tradtional Tuesday turnaround after the European central bank injected half a trillion dollars into the credit markets to thaw them. Although the geomagnetic storm continued to rage, it lessened in intensity to some extent. Traditionally wrong short term traders of the OEX continued to make wrong-way bets as the market turned up after successfully testing the August-November lows. By the end of the day, market momentum was solidly positive:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.50% | +65.27 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.47% | +61.88 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.90% | +118.15 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.41% | -54.00 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.50% | +65.29 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.56% | +73.52 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.27% | +167.43 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.14% | -150.27 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.78% | +102.09 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.02% | +133.87 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.55% | +204.45 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +14.83% | +1952.18 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.57% | +74.70 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.13% | -412.35 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.06% | +270.63 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.79% | +235.35 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.07% | +535.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.02% | -529.61 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.43% | +56.43 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.32% | +42.36 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.18% | +24.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.07% | +9.72 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.72% | +95.06 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.62% | +81.59 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.41% | +186.27 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.29% | -170.17 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.97% | +259.10 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.04% | +269.22 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.43% | +188.75 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.22% | +29.40 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.82% | +107.91 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.34% | -175.91 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.15% | +19.61 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.27% | -35.72 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.40% | -52.48 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.66% | -86.88 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.50% | -66.40 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.57% | +74.70 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.08% | -274.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.07% | +9.72 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.41% | -54.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.14% | -150.27 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.29% | -170.17 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.13% | -412.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.02% | -529.61 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.55% | -203.82 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.73% | -96.49 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.37% | -49.30 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.82% | -239.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.94% | -518.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.13% | -412.67 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.23% | -293.39 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.22% | +29.07 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.62% | -213.64 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.05% | +6.40 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.48% | -63.68 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.89% | -116.88 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.56% | -337.37 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.89% | -248.27 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.34% | -175.91 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.93% | -122.46 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.28% | -168.21 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.54% | -334.49 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.06% | -139.16 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.85% | -243.56 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -4.17% | -549.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.65% | -348.45 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -9.43% | -1241.41 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.18% | +24.02 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.90% | +118.15 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.27% | +167.43 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.41% | +186.27 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +14.83% | +1952.18 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.07% | +535.75 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.74% | +97.38 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.64% | +215.43 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.30% | +39.75 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.24% | +163.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.67% | +219.69 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.95% | +520.49 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.65% | +217.13 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.67% | -87.86 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.05% | +137.94 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.49% | -64.70 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.99% | +129.84 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.94% | +123.17 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.41% | +317.75 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.56% | +205.37 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.82% | +107.91 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.67% | +220.50 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.99% | +393.28 |
Several short term trading indicators indicated agreement with the reversal of fortune the market exhibited. With the geomagnetic storm still expected to rage for a few more days, the market isn't out of the woods yet. Expect more irrational fears to overcome otherwise rational investors and provide additional buying opportunities.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, December 17, 2007
Geomagnetic Storm Unnerves Investors
Buyers were absent on Monday as investors around the world reacted with nervousness and sold stocks. Carry traders unwound positions in the Euro and other formerly strong carry-trade currencies as a minor geomagnetic storm raged over their heads and raised their stress levels. This decline was in line with our expectation that the retracement which started four days ago would continue this week.
The Joint USAF/NOAA (US Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) report said late Monday that:
"The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The field was initially quiet but became disturbed after a sudden impulse was observed at 0300Z. The sudden impulse was preceded by a weak shock in the solar wind observed (at a satellite) at 0204Z. The shock was followed by an increase in velocity and magnetic field at (the satellite) consistent with a corotating interaction region which was then followed by a high speed stream. Active to minor storm conditions prevailed from 0600-1200Z, followed by mostly active conditions. As of forecast issue time the solar wind velocity remains elevated with values around 550-600 km/s."
The Federal Reserve Bank has determined that major geomagnetic storms often cause investors to sell stocks. The NOAA forecast calls for more geomagnetic activity in the days ahead:
"Geomagnetic activity is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days (18-20 December), due to continued influence of the high speed stream."
In an uptrend, such geomagnetic stress-induced selling represents a buying opportunity. It sent the market plunging on Monday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.29% | -172.65 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.14% | -151.94 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.45% | -326.66 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.42% | +322.82 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.48% | -197.47 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.43% | -190.35 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.19% | -425.12 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.94% | +391.77 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.75% | -233.42 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.84% | -245.32 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.83% | -243.67 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.03% | -404.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.59% | +345.70 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.37% | +450.15 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.93% | -257.14 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.53% | -204.54 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.77% | -502.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.31% | +441.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.45% | -326.87 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.43% | -324.53 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.58% | -611.52 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.42% | +589.53 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.68% | -224.77 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.55% | -206.58 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.20% | -426.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.19% | +425.51 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.49% | -465.05 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.97% | -529.86 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.50% | -66.26 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.58% | -210.34 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.01% | -535.37 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.58% | +610.38 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.14% | -151.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.39% | +318.67 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.33% | +177.33 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.54% | +204.89 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.55% | +207.16 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.59% | +345.70 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.90% | +253.89 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.42% | +589.53 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.42% | +322.82 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.94% | +391.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.19% | +425.51 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.37% | +450.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.31% | +441.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.81% | +375.47 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.04% | +405.02 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.96% | +395.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.52% | +602.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.56% | +341.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.46% | +595.20 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +5.85% | +780.26 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.14% | +285.75 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.14% | +285.56 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.79% | +239.09 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +2.56% | +341.15 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.68% | +491.10 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +4.43% | +590.29 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +4.98% | +664.30 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.58% | +610.38 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.33% | +577.50 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.52% | +202.28 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +4.44% | +592.88 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.22% | +295.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +4.24% | +565.88 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +8.45% | +1126.97 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +5.59% | +745.50 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +11.54% | +1539.98 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.58% | -611.52 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.45% | -326.66 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.19% | -425.12 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.20% | -426.77 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.03% | -404.11 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.77% | -502.25 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -2.40% | -320.23 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -4.08% | -543.97 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -3.21% | -428.75 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -4.28% | -570.54 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.70% | -227.42 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -4.28% | -571.47 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -6.18% | -824.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.59% | -345.12 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.35% | -313.65 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.37% | -316.54 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.89% | -519.14 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.47% | -595.78 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -4.74% | -632.69 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.01% | -535.37 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.50% | -599.94 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.19% | -292.28 |
On the bright side, we are about to enter the strongest period of the year from a seasonal perspective. Historically, the market is typically exceptionally strong from Christmas Eve to New Year's Eve. The rally is called the "Santa Claus Rally." The current irrational dip, triggered literally by "celestial forces," is a perfect setup for this seasonal rally.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Major Rally Warming Up in the Wings
Stocks continued to retrace the 27 November - 10 December rally by about halfway as the bricks in the Wall of Worry are carefully mortared into place. Much of the selling pressure we're seeing is tax-related as investors sell their losers to offset gains from winning trades. This is the origin of the famous "January Effect" rally which usually starts in November or December and causes the stock market to soar into January. In most of the last few years, investors have had few losers to sell for tax purposes, but 2007 is one of those years where most portfolios are littered with losers. This has caused unusual weakness this year. But, that weakness is exactly what is setting up as an opportunity.
Last week's decline also had a lot to do with Quadruple Witching options and futures expiration, which occurs at the end of this coming week. Investors had driven indices well above both key prices we identifed in our Options Analysis Report. We told subscribers to expect that the market would gyrate between those prices last week and that's exactly what we saw. Index option writers were able to buy back their short puts at the top of the range, then buy back their short calls at the bottom of the range, collecting a nice paycheck for the month of December in the process.
Friday's session saw the market dip to near the bottom of the trading range:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.32% | -178.11 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.15% | -155.21 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.46% | -333.09 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.35% | +318.23 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.37% | -185.82 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.27% | -171.40 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.90% | -392.61 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.95% | +398.49 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.68% | -227.36 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.61% | -217.74 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.10% | -283.79 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.39% | -728.78 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.82% | +246.06 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.59% | +620.62 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.04% | -275.47 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.95% | -263.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.88% | -524.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.97% | +536.12 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.10% | -149.07 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.03% | -139.12 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.53% | -207.26 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.96% | +265.61 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.58% | -213.90 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.75% | -236.83 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.34% | -451.29 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.30% | +581.88 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.13% | -288.59 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.64% | -222.05 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.03% | +3.44 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.61% | -217.43 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.29% | -444.50 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +3.08% | +416.12 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.72% | -231.91 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.18% | +159.57 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.35% | +182.11 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.53% | +206.31 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.03% | +139.90 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.82% | +246.06 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.01% | +271.82 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.96% | +265.61 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.35% | +318.23 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.95% | +398.49 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.30% | +581.88 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.59% | +620.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.97% | +536.12 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.87% | +387.74 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.63% | +220.70 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.19% | +161.52 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.83% | +246.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.78% | +646.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.15% | +426.22 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.82% | +516.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.47% | +198.83 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.96% | +400.46 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.11% | +556.05 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +2.60% | +351.02 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.29% | +309.49 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.73% | +774.47 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +3.08% | +416.12 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.02% | +272.78 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.92% | +394.16 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.48% | +335.85 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.64% | +356.68 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +5.47% | +739.41 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +4.78% | +646.63 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +4.46% | +603.03 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +5.78% | +781.47 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.53% | -207.26 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.46% | -333.09 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.90% | -392.61 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.34% | -451.29 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.39% | -728.78 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.88% | -524.02 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -2.33% | -314.73 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.91% | -257.91 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.28% | -308.00 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.10% | -553.92 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.82% | -111.09 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.82% | -381.40 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.28% | -173.49 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.63% | -490.71 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.31% | -177.27 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.60% | -216.23 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -3.06% | -413.48 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -6.29% | -850.53 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.29% | -444.50 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.95% | -262.99 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -3.25% | -439.38 |
Some folks have turned bearish for a reason which on the surface appears to be a valid argument. That argument says that when the market goes down on higher volume than it went up, it indicates a bear trend. When you look at market history, though, you will find that one characteristic which all bull markets share is that declines typically show higher volume than advances! There's a very simple explanation for this phenomenon and that has to do with the difference between greed and fear.
Greed is a diffuse and longer lasting emotion than fear. When investors experience fear, their typical reaction is to say to their broker (these days, they say to their computer): "Get me out at any price!" Panic selling raises volume. But, in a bull market, advances take a much larger percentage of the time and investors don't rush to buy all at once, resulting in lower volume on a daily basis, but much higher volume over a period of time. Day by day, the market trends higher on lower volume. This is a characteristic of a sustainable advance. When you see declines on large volume on a chart, you will see that they typically occur near the end of a corrective phase as the last weak, but stubborn, hands are shaken loose from their shares.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Tail Wags the Dog
Stocks gyrated in a trading range Thursday. Although some observers saw the market's reaction to the Fed rate cut and credit market bailout moves as bearish, the real answer to why the market was stuck in a trading range was much simpler: it's activity associated with options expiration next week. The market normally will enter into a period about a week before expiration where large moves up and down are generated by options activities. Option sellers look forward to a trendless market in order to buy back their puts near the top of the range, then buy back their calls near the bottom of the range. This market is giving them exactly what they most desired, which is a trading range allowing them the opportunity to maximize their profits.
The side-effect of this activity is that the market is building out a base and turning the crowd bearish at the same time. What more could you ask for?
The day's trading results were very mixed as you can see:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.33% | +44.06 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.54% | +73.20 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.06% | -8.27 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.18% | +24.20 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.21% | -27.96 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -4.51 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.32% | +43.42 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.58% | -77.90 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.00% | +0.01 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.38% | -51.84 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.20% | -27.08 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.46% | -62.45 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.18% | +158.42 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.29% | -39.28 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.55% | -73.58 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.53% | -71.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.80% | +107.73 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.48% | -64.57 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.54% | -72.86 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.47% | -198.48 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.27% | +171.60 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.02% | -2.64 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.21% | -27.90 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.16% | -22.06 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.37% | -50.46 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.03% | -408.91 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.53% | -476.06 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.47% | -333.12 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.12% | -150.99 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.40% | -188.45 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.55% | +209.37 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.44% | -59.61 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.19% | +25.29 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.44% | -59.48 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.20% | -26.77 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.62% | +83.73 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.46% | -62.45 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.18% | +24.33 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.27% | +171.60 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.06% | -8.27 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.32% | +43.42 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.37% | -50.46 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.18% | +158.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.80% | +107.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.09% | -12.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.29% | -173.72 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.39% | +52.77 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.21% | +27.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.35% | +47.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.12% | -16.09 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.42% | -191.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.15% | +19.85 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.40% | +54.50 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.05% | -6.94 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -100.00% | -13473.90 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.53% | -341.02 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.52% | -70.54 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.35% | +182.34 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.55% | +209.37 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.11% | +15.41 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.58% | -212.40 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.10% | +282.92 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.15% | +289.76 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.47% | +467.31 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +4.60% | +619.93 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +4.29% | +578.50 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +6.41% | +863.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.47% | -198.48 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.54% | +73.20 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -4.51 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.16% | -22.06 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.20% | -27.08 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.53% | -71.14 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.34% | -46.23 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.25% | -33.60 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -13473.90 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.40% | +189.07 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.80% | -107.88 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -2.63% | -353.99 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.83% | +111.41 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.80% | +108.07 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.05% | -141.34 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.55% | -74.36 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.90% | -121.50 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.07% | -9.79 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +0.98% | +132.37 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.48% | -199.03 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.40% | -188.45 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.13% | -17.45 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.59% | +214.27 |
Subscribers will see that today's trading range neatly swept across a range of prices we've identified for several days as a key range for option sellers. This sweeping action allowed index option sellers to buy back both calls and puts at a profit.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Fed Moves to Bolster Credit Markets
In a move timed to take place when both European and US markets were open and trading, the Fed announced Wednesday that, in conjunction with several other central banks, they would be providing additional money to banks outside the normal discount window process. This announcement followed up their statement released yesterday on interest rate policy and relieved the market of their fears that the Fed was "behind the curve." In choosing not to use the blunt instrument of interest rate cuts to solve a narrowly-focused credit market problem, the Fed's insistence on keeping its attention on inflation was shown to be not just a whim, but an overriding concern. And, while the new mechanism is just that (too new to judge), it could be a big part of the solution to the headwinds currently buffeting the economy.
Stocks rebounded sharply from the trauma they suffered late Tuesday and regained the high ground. But, the trauma left the market unsettled and it closed closer to the lows of the day than to Tuesday's high. The market is likely to be continue its convalescence after a rough start to the week:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.31% | +41.13 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.45% | +59.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.63% | +85.19 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.65% | -87.37 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.62% | +83.72 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.99% | +132.59 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +236.60 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.84% | -247.46 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.85% | +113.84 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.17% | +22.27 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.50% | +67.12 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.06% | +142.72 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.55% | +73.98 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.11% | -148.48 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.69% | +93.08 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.76% | +102.07 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.31% | +176.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.17% | -157.32 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.79% | +106.43 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.90% | +120.40 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.34% | +180.09 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.75% | -234.62 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.34% | +45.90 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.82% | +110.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.96% | +128.46 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.40% | -188.49 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.70% | +228.73 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.68% | +225.20 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.09% | +281.13 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.57% | +76.17 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.55% | +208.13 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.36% | -316.52 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.68% | -91.97 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.65% | -87.68 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.15% | +20.56 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.33% | -44.33 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.33% | -44.97 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.55% | +73.98 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.72% | -96.34 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.75% | -234.62 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.65% | -87.37 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.84% | -247.46 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.40% | -188.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.11% | -148.48 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.17% | -157.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.85% | +113.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.96% | +128.95 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.86% | +116.09 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.78% | +104.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.68% | +91.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.45% | +60.42 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.04% | -408.67 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.00% | -134.94 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.42% | +56.17 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.13% | +421.11 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.38% | +51.12 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.53% | +71.70 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.90% | -523.79 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.47% | +63.47 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.36% | -316.52 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.33% | -312.56 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.94% | -126.39 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.38% | -319.70 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.95% | -262.46 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -3.53% | -473.90 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -4.82% | -647.10 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.46% | -195.78 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.76% | -505.21 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.34% | +180.09 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.63% | +85.19 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +236.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.96% | +128.46 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.06% | +142.72 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.31% | +176.37 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.03% | -4.39 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.51% | +202.23 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.32% | -42.97 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.21% | -28.50 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.52% | +204.38 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.64% | +220.58 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.64% | +354.21 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.18% | +24.37 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.52% | -70.09 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.09% | -281.23 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.13% | -17.79 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.16% | +156.33 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +4.81% | +646.72 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.33% | -178.31 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.55% | +208.13 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +2.77% | +372.27 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.59% | +79.09 |
Fed Humor
Barry Ritholtz had a good summary of the Top 10 Things You May Not Have Known About the FOMC, although he later modified #10 slightly. Barry is one of the few truly informed and informative guest hosts on CNBC, a network best characterized as a desolate wasteland of worthless drivel.
Market Warming Up For a Big Move
The current volatility is due to the big money shaking the tree hard to get the weak hands to sell out. All big moves start this way.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Rebuilding the Wall of Worry, Brick by Brick
The announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee that they had cut the Federal Funds target rate by ¼% was exactly what the market expected. However, the market had also expected that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would cut the discount rate by ½% and instead they simply tracked the FOMC's ¼% cut, leaving the discount rate above the Fed Funds rate. That disappointment, combined with overly-bullish sentiment, saw the market give back half of its gain of the last couple of weeks in a matter of minutes.
Was the market right to have expected the Fed to cut the discount rate by ½%? Actually, it made a lot of sense that that cut should have been at least that if the Fed's goal is to unfreeze the credit markets and avert a downturn in the economy. Since the credit tightening of 2007 began, the Fed has simply reacted with overnight lending rate cuts to that tightening and has left the discount rate at a premium to Fed Funds instead of a true discount as it historically has been. By keeping the discount rate above the Fed Funds rate, the Fed is simply telling the markets that it will not bail out those who have taken on too much debt. By not lowering the rate below the Fed Funds rate, the message has been that they are far more concerned with inflation. In fact, one could conclude by the Fed's actions (and not their statements) that they would welcome a recession, with its necessary bankruptcies of weak financial entities, to quell those rising inflation pressures. This is a no-nonsense Fed which is willing to butt heads together, it seems. The market certainly developed a splitting headache on Tuesday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.14% | -294.26 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.18% | -299.72 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.31% | -591.77 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.02% | +551.40 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.55% | -349.43 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.74% | -376.39 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -5.29% | -726.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.58% | +765.91 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.63% | -361.58 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.53% | -347.46 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.02% | -414.83 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.54% | -898.03 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.50% | +343.77 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.43% | +882.98 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.08% | -422.12 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.51% | -482.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -7.09% | -973.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.89% | +946.19 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.26% | -310.82 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.32% | -318.75 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.31% | -592.00 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.72% | +648.31 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.96% | -406.76 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -3.17% | -434.70 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.98% | -821.28 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.11% | +839.11 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.20% | -438.97 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.98% | -408.85 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.45% | -199.04 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.08% | -285.18 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.75% | -515.17 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.53% | +622.44 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.03% | -690.08 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.37% | +324.96 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.92% | +264.07 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.19% | +300.93 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.77% | +380.19 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.50% | +343.77 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +3.31% | +453.79 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.72% | +648.31 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.02% | +551.40 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.58% | +765.91 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.11% | +839.11 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.43% | +882.98 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.89% | +946.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.66% | +502.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.87% | +531.26 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +5.95% | +816.98 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.56% | +488.23 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +5.47% | +750.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.32% | +592.53 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +8.04% | +1103.72 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +3.68% | +504.99 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.99% | +685.32 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +8.86% | +1216.44 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.64% | +225.69 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +5.62% | +771.36 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +3.17% | +434.65 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +11.53% | +1582.64 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.53% | +622.44 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.31% | +591.73 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +4.41% | +605.44 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.99% | +547.90 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.45% | +336.06 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +5.32% | +730.68 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +7.63% | +1047.37 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +4.93% | +676.67 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +9.52% | +1306.36 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.31% | -592.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.31% | -591.77 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -5.29% | -726.83 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.98% | -821.28 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.54% | -898.03 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -7.09% | -973.71 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -4.80% | -659.56 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -4.92% | -674.70 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -6.37% | -874.78 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -5.13% | -703.67 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.25% | -858.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -6.39% | -877.54 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -7.17% | -983.63 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.71% | -508.79 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -4.53% | -622.46 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -9.92% | -1361.29 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.74% | -376.59 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -5.14% | -705.10 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.57% | -627.05 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -10.19% | -1399.02 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.75% | -515.17 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.54% | -623.24 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -4.36% | -597.97 |
The market had forced the Fed into a cut, but the fact that the Fed took this "baby step" is a clear message that the Fed has the backbone to stand up for what it believes in. Whether you think the Fed is "behind the curve" or not, you just have to admire this "John Wayne" Fed. It's certainly a welcome change from the previous Bubble Blowing Fed.
The markets reacted poorly to the Fed's move. But, sometimes a little bit of discipline is necessary to keep the players in line. The pain of lower stock prices is probably worth it if the Fed can continue to keep inflation on a downward trajectory.
By the way, the Fed doesn't believe the inflation figures they get from the government. "Once burned, twice shy" describes their attitude to the bean counters in the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A few years ago, the government told the Fed that the inflation rate was in danger of dipping into negative territory (deflation), causing the Fed to cut short term rates to 1%, something it hadn't done since the last Depression. Years later, the government admitted the figures were in error and that the Fed shouldn't have cut rates so low. This Fed clearly doesn't believe the rosy scenario being fed them by the government inflation figures. It knows inflation is almost out of control and that it may be the last defense against inflation getting completely out of control.
Be very glad we have a Fed with a backbone strong enough to keep the government honest and inflation under control.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, December 10, 2007
Skating on Thin Ice
The market has made its mind up: the Fed will be easing rates and taking care of the danger of recession. If only it were that simple. The last few rate cuts really were offsets to credit market tightening and didn't really free up the system to function normally. But, with the Administration working to bail out the mortgage holders and a loose Fed, equities are looking on the bright side for a change.
Sentiment, which had been extremely bearish at the late November lows, has done a complete flip-flop now. Although the market has had a good short term rally, this is not a great sign and suggests that we may be in for considerable volatility and soon.
Monday's party continued for the bulls:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.74% | +101.45 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.74% | +100.90 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.50% | +204.04 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.54% | -209.89 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.81% | +111.05 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.78% | +105.64 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.22% | +166.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.66% | -226.39 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.81% | +109.84 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.91% | +124.41 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.72% | +97.58 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.80% | +245.09 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.49% | -66.73 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.73% | -235.28 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.70% | +95.23 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.96% | +130.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.31% | +314.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.49% | -202.46 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.32% | +44.22 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.40% | +54.68 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.59% | +79.81 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.54% | -73.99 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.80% | +109.25 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.82% | +111.07 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.05% | +279.36 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.85% | -251.55 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.39% | +189.46 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.03% | +276.04 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.78% | +242.70 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.74% | +100.98 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.64% | +223.74 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.58% | -215.21 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.03% | +276.59 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.48% | -64.72 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.86% | -117.06 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.92% | -125.21 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.51% | -69.96 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.49% | -66.73 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.76% | -104.04 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.54% | -73.99 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.54% | -209.89 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.66% | -226.39 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.85% | -251.55 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.73% | -235.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.49% | -202.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.50% | -204.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.02% | -139.04 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.30% | -177.66 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.06% | -281.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.66% | -226.05 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.14% | -155.89 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.62% | -220.31 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.00% | -135.96 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.33% | -44.29 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.77% | -514.20 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.06% | +8.79 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.46% | -199.34 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.21% | -164.21 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -4.48% | -610.31 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.58% | -215.21 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.28% | -174.99 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.56% | -76.47 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.10% | -13.63 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.64% | -87.73 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.18% | -296.76 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.09% | -12.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.31% | -42.35 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.95% | +128.85 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.59% | +79.81 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.50% | +204.04 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.22% | +166.24 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.05% | +279.36 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.80% | +245.09 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.31% | +314.92 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.55% | +210.85 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.53% | +208.55 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.58% | +351.16 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.18% | +160.95 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.69% | +230.12 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.80% | +245.09 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.79% | +379.62 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.33% | +180.92 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.14% | +18.75 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +4.10% | +558.03 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.80% | +109.68 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.12% | +152.11 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.49% | +203.22 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.39% | +598.49 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.64% | +223.74 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.91% | +123.90 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.45% | +61.08 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, December 09, 2007
Recession Chances Fading
Recession fears abated last week as the markets found that the economy was far stronger than had earlier appeared to be the case. The Economic Cycle Research Institute said that their model, the best predictor of recessions, was not yet forecasting a recession despite the current dip in the indicator. Backing up that assessment, both major Employment Reports (ADP and BLS) showed that, despite declines in employment in construction, manufacturing and the financial sector, jobs were still being created in the rest of the economy. Even the government's BLS Employment Report showed that the number of persons employed in the US grew by 696,000 in November while the number unemployed dropped by 78,000. Although labor statistics are a lagging indicator, these kinds of numbers strongly suggest there is no danger of a recession starting right now.
Wages also showed a sharp uptick as well, indicating that wage inflation was alive and well, a statistic which caused long term interest rates to rally. With jobs plentiful and wages rising, the economy is in no immediate danger of recession due to the fact that consumers make up over half of the economy.
Stocks reflected the growing confidence in the economy, as the rise since the closing low of November 26th shows:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +6.92% | +882.14 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +7.01% | +892.82 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +14.23% | +1813.42 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -12.67% | -1614.65 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +6.90% | +879.22 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +7.07% | +900.49 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +14.18% | +1806.91 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -13.30% | -1694.86 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +6.75% | +860.60 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +6.72% | +855.87 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +6.57% | +837.35 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +13.71% | +1746.94 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -5.86% | -746.56 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -13.00% | -1656.40 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +6.87% | +874.97 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +7.31% | +931.94 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +13.30% | +1695.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -13.61% | -1734.02 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +7.03% | +896.17 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +6.84% | +871.59 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +13.23% | +1686.36 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -12.62% | -1608.42 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +7.82% | +996.11 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +8.08% | +1029.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +16.16% | +2059.07 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -14.59% | -1858.77 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.63% | -80.10 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.40% | -178.72 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -3.32% | -423.21 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +6.64% | +846.29 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +19.14% | +2439.38 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -17.66% | -2250.77 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +10.93% | +1392.76 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -6.34% | -807.38 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -6.28% | -800.31 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -6.19% | -788.97 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -7.12% | -907.50 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -5.86% | -746.56 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -6.50% | -828.90 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -12.62% | -1608.42 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -12.67% | -1614.65 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -13.30% | -1694.86 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -14.59% | -1858.77 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -13.00% | -1656.40 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -13.61% | -1734.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -13.62% | -1735.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -11.78% | -1500.78 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -13.28% | -1692.09 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -12.86% | -1638.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -12.81% | -1632.80 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -13.12% | -1672.31 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -21.87% | -2786.47 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -9.43% | -1201.60 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -10.80% | -1375.83 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -19.43% | -2476.68 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -8.80% | -1121.00 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -12.86% | -1638.94 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -11.06% | -1409.48 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -19.55% | -2491.82 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -17.66% | -2250.77 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -12.74% | -1624.10 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -9.82% | -1251.65 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -11.56% | -1473.74 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -4.53% | -577.90 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -8.75% | -1115.34 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -22.80% | -2905.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -9.02% | -1149.76 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -25.77% | -3284.19 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +13.23% | +1686.36 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +14.23% | +1813.42 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +14.18% | +1806.91 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +16.16% | +2059.07 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +13.71% | +1746.94 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +13.30% | +1695.27 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +15.42% | +1964.82 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +13.29% | +1693.43 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +13.22% | +1684.35 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +16.22% | +2067.27 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +13.59% | +1731.34 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +13.21% | +1683.65 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +24.60% | +3134.96 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +8.09% | +1031.18 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +11.12% | +1417.56 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +21.71% | +2766.75 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +9.72% | +1238.04 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +13.57% | +1729.62 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +12.87% | +1639.94 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +22.95% | +2924.91 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +19.14% | +2439.38 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +13.11% | +1670.22 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +11.01% | +1402.52 |
Although the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to vote to reduce the overnight lending rate by ¼% on Tuesday, such a preemptive rate cut here may be enough to push the economy into boom mode late next year and into 2009. The cuts so far have not done the job in unfreezing the credit markets, where banks have been uneasy lending funds to each other and have kept rates well above the Fed Funds target. But, the cuts have brought the target Fed Funds rate down to the point which is consistent with an overall CPI inflation rate (not the real inflation rate, mind you) into the 1-2% target range. Any further lowering of the nominal rate runs the risk of pushing inflation higher, which will require tightening moves next year. And, given the effects to date on the interbank lending rate, further cuts may not help unfreeze the credit markets. In fact, the moves by the Treasury to prevent foreclosures in the housing market may actually be the medicine the markets need more than a cut by the FOMC. Still, the markets are expecting a rate cut and the markets usually get what they expect from the FOMC.
One thing is clear: the bond market does not like what is happening. A major long term bottom in bond rates is likely to be at hand, which suggests that anyone wanting to lock in low rates should do so very soon. This is the last train out of the station for low rates. This also suggests that traders in bonds are going to have a field day shorting that market. Remember, rising rates mean lower bond prices. Long term bond investors are also likely to see losses from rising inflation eating away at their returns, although there the principal and coupon are fairly secure. In fact, at current rates of real inflation (not CPI inflation), bond investors are losing money now. That slow drip of losses is almost certain to accelerate in the future.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, December 06, 2007
Hope Pushes Stocks Higher
The market sensed a solution to the credit freeze-up is near and continued the rally on Thursday. Since last week's low, the Dow has soared almost 900 points as it led the market out of the depths of despair engendered by the fear that the credit crisis would cause the economy to crash into a recession. Although it's usually not a good sign to see the Dow in the lead, it often is the first sign of recovery after a long bear market. Note that if you take into consideration the drop in value of the trade-weighted dollar, US stocks have indeed suffered through a long bear market. Compared to many other world stock markets, US stocks are considerably undervalued and thus very attractive for investors if a recession can be averted.
Since the current Buying Spree got started on the 27th of November, here's what we've seen:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +6.88% | +876.45 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +6.76% | +861.83 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +14.13% | +1801.06 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -12.38% | -1577.58 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +7.07% | +901.05 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +7.09% | +903.21 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +13.91% | +1772.04 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -13.13% | -1673.51 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +6.82% | +869.42 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +6.83% | +870.65 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +6.81% | +867.66 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +14.18% | +1807.26 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -5.79% | -737.92 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -13.05% | -1663.06 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +7.00% | +892.48 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +7.16% | +912.74 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +13.56% | +1728.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -12.72% | -1621.15 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +6.81% | +867.73 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +6.82% | +868.99 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +12.48% | +1589.96 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -11.89% | -1514.70 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +7.69% | +979.67 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +7.77% | +990.10 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +16.37% | +2085.90 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -14.55% | -1854.58 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.17% | -21.67 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.59% | -75.82 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.37% | -302.52 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +6.60% | +841.22 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +20.08% | +2558.28 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -17.72% | -2258.48 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +11.82% | +1506.15 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -6.42% | -818.72 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -6.36% | -810.57 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -6.55% | -834.92 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -7.06% | -899.39 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -5.79% | -737.92 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -6.77% | -862.59 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -11.89% | -1514.70 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -12.38% | -1577.58 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -13.13% | -1673.51 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -14.55% | -1854.58 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -13.05% | -1663.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -12.72% | -1621.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -13.85% | -1764.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -11.82% | -1506.42 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -12.56% | -1600.78 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -10.67% | -1359.23 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -12.78% | -1628.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -13.59% | -1732.22 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -19.75% | -2516.49 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -9.62% | -1226.55 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -11.21% | -1428.41 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -20.80% | -2650.41 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -8.53% | -1087.26 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -12.30% | -1566.97 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -11.43% | -1455.98 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -20.36% | -2595.03 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -17.72% | -2258.48 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -13.05% | -1662.47 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -9.99% | -1273.15 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -12.64% | -1610.65 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -4.75% | -605.75 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -9.71% | -1237.78 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -24.57% | -3131.57 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -10.34% | -1317.93 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -30.81% | -3925.97 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +12.48% | +1589.96 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +14.13% | +1801.06 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +13.91% | +1772.04 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +16.37% | +2085.90 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +14.18% | +1807.26 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +13.56% | +1728.64 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +15.49% | +1974.11 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +13.41% | +1708.29 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +12.37% | +1576.00 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +15.21% | +1938.56 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +12.30% | +1567.40 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +12.96% | +1652.01 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +23.10% | +2943.62 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +8.02% | +1022.47 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +25.13% | +3202.23 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +10.07% | +1283.42 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +13.04% | +1661.60 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +13.48% | +1717.48 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +24.15% | +3077.85 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +20.08% | +2558.28 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +13.36% | +1702.15 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +10.71% | +1364.77 |
After such a sprint, the market couldn't be faulted for taking a rest here and consolidating the gains.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Excellent Employment Report Turns Market Up
A surprisingly upbeat employment report from ADP released Wednesday morning showed job creation has not been impacted by the credit freeze-up of the last few months. While the report may keep the Fed sidelined as far as rate cuts are concerned, the stock market reacted to the good news as a harbinger that a recession will be avoided next year:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.48% | +196.23 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.53% | +202.09 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.12% | +413.56 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.68% | -354.69 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.49% | +197.35 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.67% | +221.78 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.11% | +412.49 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.36% | -444.83 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.43% | +189.21 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.45% | +192.38 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.35% | +178.31 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.38% | +182.36 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.78% | -102.80 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.92% | -387.29 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.81% | +239.41 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.92% | +254.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.47% | +459.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.76% | -498.19 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.90% | +252.16 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.78% | +235.32 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.54% | +469.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.83% | -507.37 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.46% | +193.56 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.31% | +173.98 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.23% | +294.81 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.64% | -349.65 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.73% | -96.72 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.61% | -80.30 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.97% | -128.48 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.45% | +324.43 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.68% | +752.89 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.35% | -841.89 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.91% | +253.29 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -2.32% | -307.54 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.45% | -192.68 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.61% | -213.62 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.21% | -159.65 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.78% | -102.80 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.73% | -229.69 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.83% | -507.37 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.68% | -354.69 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.36% | -444.83 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.64% | -349.65 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.92% | -387.29 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.76% | -498.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.70% | -225.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -4.48% | -593.79 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.99% | -263.70 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.43% | -189.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.84% | -508.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.51% | -465.59 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.87% | -512.99 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.28% | -170.18 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.13% | +17.73 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.96% | -524.00 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.46% | -192.88 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.13% | -282.23 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.49% | -462.35 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -5.68% | -752.93 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.35% | -841.89 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -5.32% | -705.32 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -3.32% | -439.76 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -3.46% | -457.85 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.54% | -204.08 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.37% | -314.61 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -7.77% | -1029.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.70% | -490.42 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -11.65% | -1543.54 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.54% | +469.02 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.12% | +413.56 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.11% | +412.49 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.23% | +294.81 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.38% | +182.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.47% | +459.22 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +7.26% | +962.28 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +1.99% | +263.00 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.31% | +305.59 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.55% | +470.84 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +3.61% | +478.26 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.01% | +134.43 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.92% | +518.97 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +2.87% | +379.76 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.84% | +243.35 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.60% | +477.20 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +5.69% | +753.34 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.68% | +752.89 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +5.44% | +720.50 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.55% | +338.03 |
Sentiment continued to be supportive as Jeff Walker's Low-Risk Sentiment Survey continued to show more bearish traders than bullish ones. It appears that the Wall of Worry has been very effectively built for stocks to climb. Certainly, if the market does enter a bear market, it will be different this time: most investors are bearish according to the individual sentiment surveys. When the crowd is bearish, it's time to be a buyer.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, December 04, 2007
Deer Caught in the Headlights
The market struggled to maintain at current levels after the bears came back to sell the rallies once again. Sentiment was poor as the OEX trading crowd was trying to buy the dip, not a good sign overall. However, it is unmistakable that the overall trend is lacking here and the market is basically just in a wait-and-see mode now. The first thing it will look at Wednesday morning is the ADP Employment Report, which will give us a preview of the government's BLS Employment Report due out Friday morning. As if that weren't important enough, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next Tuesday to determine what kind of short term interest rate cuts it can make to unfreeze an icebound credit market. Thus, it's entirely possible that the market is on "hold" until the results of that meeting are announced next Tuesday afternoon.
For this Tuesday, however, the market strayed very little from unchanged levels:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.49% | -65.84 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.65% | -86.90 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.05% | -272.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.58% | +210.33 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.69% | -91.24 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.89% | -119.01 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.43% | -189.88 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.81% | +241.10 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.65% | -86.14 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.62% | -82.76 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.72% | -95.69 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.13% | -283.64 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.29% | +171.92 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.69% | +225.10 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.03% | -137.71 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.99% | -131.83 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.02% | -268.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.25% | +300.18 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.46% | -61.37 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.41% | -54.95 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.96% | -127.32 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.84% | +112.37 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.36% | -47.53 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.23% | -31.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.17% | -22.38 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.54% | +72.10 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.20% | -159.36 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.32% | -176.31 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.43% | +190.50 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.80% | -107.16 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.00% | -132.73 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.31% | +307.52 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.64% | -218.07 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.41% | +54.18 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.47% | +62.61 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.75% | +100.50 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.41% | +55.17 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.29% | +171.92 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.00% | +132.96 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.84% | +112.37 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.58% | +210.33 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.81% | +241.10 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.54% | +72.10 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.69% | +225.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.25% | +300.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.69% | +225.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.48% | +63.79 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.06% | +141.21 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.94% | +124.80 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.28% | +436.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.92% | +255.75 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.40% | +53.86 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.86% | +114.28 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.49% | +65.11 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.01% | +401.20 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.41% | +54.41 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.98% | +130.40 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.46% | +194.30 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.07% | +675.28 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.31% | +307.52 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.04% | +138.00 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.45% | -192.70 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.23% | -30.97 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.88% | +116.61 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.30% | +173.33 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.07% | +8.98 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.37% | +183.07 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.81% | -108.07 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.96% | -127.32 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.05% | -272.38 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.43% | -189.88 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.17% | -22.38 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.13% | -283.64 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.02% | -268.69 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.78% | -103.26 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.59% | -212.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -2.52% | -335.73 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -2.28% | -303.45 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.23% | -163.79 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.40% | -53.48 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.37% | -448.31 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.41% | -187.26 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.63% | -84.31 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.76% | -234.29 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -4.42% | -587.97 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.00% | -132.73 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.15% | -153.14 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.81% | +241.51 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Monday, December 03, 2007
Retracing the Rally
After a vigorous five-wave impulse rally last week, the market is "breathing" here as the longs take profits and the shorts lick their wounds. This is normal for a market which has a big surge rally as we had last week. Our intraday indicators started flashing sell indications early Friday right at the top of the impulse, so traders were able to get out with most profits intact. Now, we are looking for the market to come back to form another base from which to rally.
The Broad Dollar Index continued to advance slightly, which puts a firm undertone underneath the market. However, the traditional Dollar Index which the crowd watches drooped and that psychologically was a negative for investors and probably supplied a bit of selling pressure for stocks. And, the Japanese Yen, one of the main funding currencies for the Carry Trade, found chart support and bounced, putting further pressure on stocks. These daily fluctuations provide volatility, but cannot change the overall trend in the market.
Here are Monday's market returns on major stock indices and ETFs:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.43% | -57.15 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.64% | -85.72 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.36% | +48.71 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.22% | +29.48 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.66% | -87.73 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.66% | -88.15 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.74% | -232.36 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.39% | +185.37 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.46% | -61.02 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.39% | -51.75 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.91% | -121.39 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.75% | -99.79 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.24% | +31.98 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.40% | +187.20 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.91% | -121.84 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.08% | -144.93 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.68% | -224.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.02% | +269.81 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.12% | -149.16 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.84% | -112.06 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.83% | -244.71 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.30% | +307.88 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.40% | -53.91 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.60% | -80.84 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.57% | -76.63 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.28% | +171.12 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.05% | +140.02 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.99% | +132.68 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.24% | +166.02 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.10% | +12.90 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.14% | -18.23 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.35% | -180.55 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.15% | -153.68 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.05% | +139.97 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.69% | +92.72 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.63% | +83.90 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.37% | +48.94 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.24% | +31.98 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.87% | +116.24 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.30% | +307.88 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.22% | +29.48 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.39% | +185.37 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.28% | +171.12 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.40% | +187.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.02% | +269.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.71% | +95.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.87% | +116.31 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.24% | +32.68 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.35% | +47.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +1.14% | +152.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.60% | +213.87 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.00% | +133.53 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.24% | +32.56 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.81% | +108.77 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.48% | +465.40 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.86% | +114.47 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.22% | +163.33 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.48% | -63.68 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.46% | +194.73 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.35% | -180.55 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.67% | +223.51 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.18% | -157.19 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.63% | +84.69 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.23% | +30.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.47% | +62.73 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.65% | +87.17 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.42% | +55.77 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.08% | +411.47 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.83% | -244.71 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.36% | +48.71 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.74% | -232.36 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.57% | -76.63 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.75% | -99.79 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.68% | -224.34 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.64% | -85.32 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.24% | +32.26 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.05% | +7.19 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.45% | -59.53 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.75% | -234.64 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.33% | -177.96 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.39% | +51.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.30% | -39.73 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.52% | -70.09 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.91% | -388.58 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.13% | -150.86 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.64% | -218.83 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +0.72% | +95.83 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.72% | -230.07 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.14% | -18.23 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.70% | -226.78 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.10% | +281.28 |
Monday's minor pullback helps add support to the "Wall of Worry," which had been getting weakened by a flood of new bulls into the market.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Saturday, December 01, 2007
Strengthening Dollar Stokes Stock Rally
The bear market in US stocks may be just about over. If you don't believe we've been in a bear market, consider that from high to low, the most liquid and dynamic part of the stock market, composed of the 2000 stocks in the Russell Index, dropped 18.63% from its early 2007 high water mark (after adjusting for changes in the value of the US Dollar). That's more than a correction, it has definitely been a bear market. But, why would this be the end of the bear market now? The answer has everything to do with the dollar itself.
The US Dollar bounced off its long term support trendline last week shown on our Dollar Index chart. This rebound in the dollar sent the US stock market soaring. Tagging along for the ride, other world markets joined in on the rally, proving once again that the US stock market continues to be the "lead dog" for the planet. Although we may not have seen the absolute low in the Dollar (Ray Merriman points to the Bush-Clinton dollar cycle to suggest that the next big turn in the dollar may coincide with the election of Hillary next year), the five-year bear market in the dollar is probably over and a trading range bottoming pattern in the currency will help bolster confidence in the US markets and draw money back from foreign markets which had exited the country during the bear market. A turn in the currency flows from foreign markets, which are overbought and overvalued, should be enough to send US share prices, mired in an oversold and undervalued state, soaring in a new bull market.
Actually, if you think this is just a hopeless permabull fantasy, you must realize it's not a hypothetical situation at all. It happened exactly 13 years ago in fact! In 1994, the stock market underwent a 13% correction (dollar-adjusted) as the dollar dropped sharply lower all year, keeping stocks in a trading range in nominal terms, just like 2007. Several months before the absolute low in the dollar bear market, stocks started a rally which carried them 313% higher. Part of those gains came from the rise in the value of the dollar as foreigners recognized that US stocks were on sale and that, even if stock prices remained unchanged, the rising value of the dollar would generate substantial profits in their own currency. And, for the middle part of that bull market, European investors in particular were seeing 60% per year annual returns from the fact that both stock prices and the dollar were rising in tandem.
Last week, the Dow Industrials rose 742 points in non-dollar-corrected (i.e., in nominal price) points. But, when you take the rise in the dollar into consideration, the rise was actually 796 points. Clearly, US stocks are a far better bargain than foreign stocks. The latter have benefitted from the falling dollar for the past half-decade. But, with the dollar cycle close to its bottom, the worm is turning.
Here are Friday's results, not corrected for dollar fluctuations:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.45% | +59.99 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.74% | +98.96 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.62% | +82.80 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.52% | -69.00 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.81% | +107.42 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.01% | +133.86 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.14% | +285.04 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.02% | -268.78 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.85% | +113.41 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.53% | +71.03 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.45% | +59.35 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.23% | +31.12 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.07% | -9.36 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.37% | -49.26 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.14% | +18.42 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.49% | +64.63 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.08% | +10.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.95% | -126.51 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.56% | -75.16 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.75% | -100.42 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.74% | -98.98 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.71% | +94.71 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.68% | +90.46 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.80% | +106.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.23% | +164.10 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.97% | -262.42 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.91% | -253.62 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.40% | -186.85 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.23% | -163.25 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.32% | -175.23 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.36% | -313.74 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.72% | +228.53 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +3.08% | +410.03 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.70% | +92.70 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.74% | -98.32 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.80% | -106.84 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.64% | -85.81 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.07% | -9.36 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.01% | +1.84 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.71% | +94.71 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.52% | -69.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.02% | -268.78 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.97% | -262.42 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.37% | -49.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.95% | -126.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.67% | -354.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.34% | -44.88 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -2.20% | -292.74 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.52% | -202.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.32% | +43.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.07% | -9.76 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.12% | -149.37 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.68% | -90.15 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.41% | -320.22 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -5.86% | -780.13 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.41% | -54.64 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.35% | -46.96 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.47% | -63.09 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.30% | -438.68 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.72% | +228.53 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.44% | +324.56 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.56% | -75.21 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.62% | -81.97 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.01% | +1.88 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.42% | -56.53 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.35% | -180.13 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.12% | +15.33 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.69% | -224.55 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.74% | -98.98 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.62% | +82.80 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.14% | +285.04 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.23% | +164.10 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.23% | +31.12 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.08% | +10.75 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.60% | +346.37 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.69% | -92.13 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.90% | +385.60 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.33% | +44.12 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.92% | +122.02 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.16% | -420.06 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.88% | +116.65 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.53% | +70.88 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +3.40% | +452.14 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +6.32% | +840.68 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.55% | +73.75 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.84% | +111.48 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +0.63% | +84.33 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.54% | +603.94 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.36% | -313.74 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.88% | -250.41 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.07% | -9.12 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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