Market Clues
News from Market Clues
 Add Market Clues Blog to My Yahoo!Links: MyClues Home Page Thermopower, a breakthrough alternative energy, carbon-free and completely clean RSS Feed Market Clues Subscription Information Page Time & Cycles TFNN - Tom O'Brien T Theory - Terry Laundry Elliott Wave International's Market Report My Yahoo! Google News "The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." ---John Maynard Keynes "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ---Thomas Jefferson "I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt." ---Thomas Jefferson
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
|
|
| Sign up now for a 3-month free trial to Market Clues! Just click the PayPal button below to start your subscription with a three-month free trial period. |
Thursday, January 31, 2008
504-Point Intraday Swing in the Dow Industrials
The market had a very volatile trading range session on Thursday. Initially, starting sharply lower, the market soared hundreds of points higher, then dropped sharply into the close. When the dust had settled, the Dow had moved 504 points intraday. This extreme volatility was probably due to the fact that more than half of the shares traded on the NYSE are part of program trading (so-called basket trading). With the short-sale uptick rule eliminated, program traders can swing the market several hundred points at will. And, they certainly do on any whim of a news item. The NYSE has turned into a daytrading casino and don't let anyone try to convince you otherwise.
Just like the securitization of debt which led to the fiasco of a debt crisis we're undergoing right now, Wall Street's casino-ization of stocks is destroying the free flow of capital from speculators to entrepreneurs. Eventually, this type of activity will force new companies to seek more stable sources of capital in other countries (a process which is ongoing and accelerating as the program trading gamers take control of the casino). According to ProgramTrading.com, a site which specializes in tracking program trading activity, "Program Trading is over 60% of the volume every day." Indiscriminate buying and selling of shares with no regard to either fundamental or technical attributes means that your stocks may be subject to huge volume swings with no linkage to any inherent change in the company those shares are related to.
Thursday was one of those days where you were either program trading, or being run over by it:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.67% | +207.53 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.79% | +223.16 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.93% | +489.12 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.67% | -456.32 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.17% | +145.83 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.82% | +226.89 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.34% | +415.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.33% | -414.63 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.46% | +182.21 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.48% | +184.67 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.69% | +334.48 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.76% | +965.93 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.51% | -312.69 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.79% | -719.90 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.56% | +318.63 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.48% | +309.18 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +5.80% | +721.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -5.17% | -643.64 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.40% | +49.74 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.71% | +213.13 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.32% | +288.38 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.47% | -307.29 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.24% | +278.57 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.12% | +263.36 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.53% | +563.08 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.32% | -537.42 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.19% | -272.72 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.37% | -170.62 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.72% | -89.21 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.05% | +6.59 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.93% | +240.03 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.21% | -150.97 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.80% | +348.85 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.45% | -180.62 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.65% | -205.42 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.73% | -215.50 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -3.39% | -422.15 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.51% | -312.69 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.66% | -330.95 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.47% | -307.29 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.67% | -456.32 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.33% | -414.63 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.32% | -537.42 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.79% | -719.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -5.17% | -643.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -5.78% | -719.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.95% | -367.42 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.02% | -500.50 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.53% | -314.40 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -5.79% | -720.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.12% | -388.14 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.35% | -293.00 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.44% | -303.53 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -6.23% | -774.81 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -5.31% | -660.31 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.90% | -111.53 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.49% | -434.23 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.18% | +22.20 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.43% | -427.23 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.21% | -150.97 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.97% | -245.01 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -3.23% | -402.24 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.85% | -230.51 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.69% | -85.46 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.35% | -292.11 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.80% | -348.12 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.19% | -397.06 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.79% | -222.19 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.32% | +288.38 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.93% | +489.12 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.34% | +415.24 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.53% | +563.08 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.76% | +965.93 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +5.80% | +721.18 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.06% | +256.38 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.18% | +146.99 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.18% | +22.82 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.72% | +338.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +5.24% | +651.64 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.71% | +461.12 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.46% | +305.79 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.61% | +324.92 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +6.84% | +851.37 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +6.77% | +842.31 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +3.50% | +435.09 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +3.86% | +480.69 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +0.45% | +55.61 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.09% | +508.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.93% | +240.03 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -5.93% | -737.69 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.32% | +288.20 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Fed Panics, Cuts Rates 1¼% in Last 8 Days
It's something for the record books. The Fed has slashed overnight lending rates by 125 basis points (1¼%) just in the last eight days. This is a sign that the Bernanke Fed, which deliberately held rates too high for far too long last year, has finally realized that they have pushed the economy close to recession and they have now hit the panic button. Last year, the Fed, by its own formula, set rates at a level which was designed to push the economy into recession. Apparently, they either ignored their own formula in a misguided attempt to quell commodity price inflation or simply didn't believe keeping rates too high would actually cause a recession. Last year, in several meetings, they pointedly stated that the Fed staff's projection of a slowing economy in 2007 and into 2008 was completely wrong and proceeded to ignore their own internal staff reports. Well, that tactic has now backfired on the economy and they are being forced to slash rates very rapidly to avoid a repeat of the 1930 experience. The Fed pulled a similar stunt then and pushed the economy into a Depression. Admitting publically that the Fed was responsible for the Depression and promising never to repeat that experience, Bernanke is now desperate to avoid doing it again. The results of this miscalculation could end up eliminating the Federal Reserve System itself. What Congress gives, it can take away. The hue and cry for Bernanke's head may soon be heard in the halls of Washington.
Upon hearing the news of the rate cut, the stock market rallied modestly, while bonds fell. Apparently, the initial reaction was wrong as late day selling sent stocks tumbling to losses and bonds recovered. During the last hour of Wednesday's session, stock traders finally realized that the Fed had panicked and they started an avalanche of selling which sent the Dow tumbling by 267 points just in that last hour. Bonds recovered from their losses as flight-to-safety buying pushed long term rates lower. By the close there were substantial losses in major stock indices, but our recommended trading position, which seeks to profit from a steepening yield curve, continued to advance relentlessly higher:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.30% | -37.47 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.61% | -76.16 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.57% | -195.50 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.41% | +175.44 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.57% | -71.09 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.74% | -91.83 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.26% | -157.08 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.28% | +284.92 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.57% | -71.13 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.60% | -75.46 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.12% | -140.38 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.60% | -448.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.63% | +203.13 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.53% | +440.67 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.24% | -154.50 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.26% | -156.67 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.77% | -470.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.95% | +492.62 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.25% | -31.00 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.09% | -11.24 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.12% | -15.30 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.24% | +29.90 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.07% | -133.97 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.93% | -116.65 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.54% | -316.92 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.27% | +408.09 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.89% | +111.43 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.69% | +86.16 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.00% | +124.60 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.25% | +31.73 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.35% | -43.85 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.41% | -50.80 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.22% | -152.56 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.57% | +70.85 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.47% | +59.15 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.99% | +123.38 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.90% | +112.12 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.63% | +203.13 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.64% | +204.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.24% | +29.90 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.41% | +175.44 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.28% | +284.92 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.27% | +408.09 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.53% | +440.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.95% | +492.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.79% | +223.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.03% | -3.30 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.28% | +159.48 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.28% | +159.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.78% | +347.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.05% | +381.14 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.81% | +101.58 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.42% | +176.93 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.93% | +241.27 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +2.37% | +296.08 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +2.37% | +295.69 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.31% | -38.42 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.99% | +123.68 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +3.26% | +407.29 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.41% | -50.80 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.46% | +181.65 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.41% | +51.67 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.56% | +194.10 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.58% | -72.60 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.55% | +193.10 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +2.65% | +331.08 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.31% | +38.90 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +9.39% | +1171.51 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.12% | -15.30 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.57% | -195.50 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.26% | -157.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.54% | -316.92 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.60% | -448.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.77% | -470.58 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.54% | -191.68 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.80% | -224.51 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.48% | +310.12 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.59% | -198.52 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.80% | -225.09 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.52% | -439.15 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -0.87% | -108.80 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.29% | -160.85 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.72% | -214.45 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.90% | -236.81 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.87% | -358.50 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.17% | -20.93 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.78% | -222.01 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.64% | -453.83 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.35% | -43.85 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.61% | +75.70 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.58% | +72.23 |
Although there was substantial selling during regular trading hours, the selloff continued in the night session, with the S&P 500 futures trading almost 16 points below fair value by 10pm EST Wednesday evening. Clearly, the market is thinking the Fed has made a huge blunder and is in panic mode trying to fix the problem before the economy comes unraveled. In that situation, stock traders are getting out while they can.
The market had been hoping for a 50 basis point (½%) rate cut Wednesday. They got it and probably regret it now.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
A Relentless Advance
The stock market continued to move relentlessly higher on Tuesday as the market looks forward to further rate cuts from the Fed on Wednesday. The rally off last week's lows has been a thousand points on the Dow (and even more than that on the broad market indices).
Although the market has made good gains in the past week, it's very rare for a "V" bottom to occur, so further tests of the lows are likely ahead. But, on Tuesday, such a decline was nowhere to be found:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.78% | +96.41 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.82% | +101.25 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.55% | +191.95 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.56% | -193.06 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.54% | +66.59 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.50% | +61.35 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.65% | +81.09 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.38% | -170.83 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.75% | +93.25 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.58% | +72.30 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.62% | +77.16 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.25% | +154.38 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.87% | -107.22 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.38% | -170.95 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.43% | +52.89 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.26% | +31.88 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.75% | +93.11 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.81% | -100.57 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.10% | -12.49 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.18% | +22.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.47% | +57.60 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.14% | +17.33 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.73% | +90.63 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.83% | +102.52 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.55% | +192.36 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.25% | -155.28 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.89% | -110.02 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.00% | -123.33 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.65% | -80.98 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.51% | -63.34 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.17% | +145.02 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.08% | -134.00 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.29% | +160.12 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.24% | -30.06 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.17% | -145.01 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.60% | -74.88 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.19% | -22.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.87% | -107.22 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.69% | -85.09 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.14% | +17.33 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.56% | -193.06 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.38% | -170.83 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.25% | -155.28 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.38% | -170.95 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.81% | -100.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.18% | -269.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.01% | -1.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -3.60% | -445.91 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.91% | -236.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.95% | -117.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.29% | -160.20 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.74% | -91.71 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.26% | -32.62 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.47% | -182.15 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.74% | -339.76 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.12% | +15.28 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.43% | -176.64 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.00% | -124.25 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.60% | +73.81 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.08% | -134.00 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.41% | -51.04 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.08% | -133.90 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.34% | -41.80 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.68% | -83.99 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.88% | -232.58 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.50% | +61.73 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.02% | -374.35 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.26% | +156.50 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.47% | +57.60 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.55% | +191.95 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.65% | +81.09 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.55% | +192.36 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.25% | +154.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.75% | +93.11 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +4.21% | +521.20 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.33% | +164.56 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +4.68% | +579.27 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.99% | +246.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.44% | +54.57 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.01% | +125.42 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.22% | +151.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.96% | +118.42 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.40% | +173.14 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.07% | +379.63 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.25% | +31.53 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.04% | +252.34 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.56% | +193.23 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.22% | -275.20 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.17% | +145.02 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.25% | +31.38 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.92% | +113.93 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, January 28, 2008
Rebound Continues, But Retracement/Retest Likely
The market continued to advance off last week's mini-panic bottom Monday. However, the deeply-oversold bounce is likely to need a retest of the lows before establishing a lasting uptrend and this week should bring one.
But, Monday's market showed excellent breadth and volume characteristics as our intraday indicators confirmed the upmove early in the trading day. By the close, they had moved off their best levels, indicating that trees do not grow to the sky even in an oversold park.
One of the most bullish of indicators appeared finally on Monday. That indicator was the "80% Up Volume Day." The market tends to be near a bull move when up volume represents more than 80% of the total of up and down volume. That occured on Monday, along with good breadth (the advance-decline ratio on the NYSE was an excellent 3.34) and a diminishing number of new lows (28). Overall, the broad market was somewhat stronger than the blue chips, which is always a bullish indication:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.45% | +176.72 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.10% | +133.87 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.61% | +318.46 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.64% | -322.67 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.59% | +194.25 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.65% | +201.86 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.66% | +446.71 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.16% | -386.10 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.71% | +208.74 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.57% | +191.52 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.05% | +250.82 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.27% | -154.94 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -6.39% | -779.53 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.87% | -472.82 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.80% | +219.69 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.12% | +258.51 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.21% | +513.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.31% | -526.68 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.64% | +77.97 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.77% | +94.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.53% | +186.50 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.15% | -262.67 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.32% | +283.25 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.03% | +247.44 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.36% | +532.17 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.83% | -589.96 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.52% | +185.33 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.57% | +191.27 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.61% | +196.02 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.48% | +180.44 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.31% | +282.07 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.43% | -296.71 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +3.11% | +379.28 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.55% | +67.53 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.84% | -102.06 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.53% | -64.25 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.58% | -314.42 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -6.39% | -779.53 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.64% | -200.14 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.15% | -262.67 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.64% | -322.67 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.16% | -386.10 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.83% | -589.96 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.87% | -472.82 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.31% | -526.68 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -4.21% | -514.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.34% | -164.19 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -2.42% | -295.96 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.60% | -440.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -5.44% | -663.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.21% | -392.20 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.58% | -559.39 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.32% | -405.71 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -3.02% | -368.32 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -6.23% | -760.17 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -3.40% | -415.53 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.12% | -380.46 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.88% | -473.53 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -5.36% | -654.68 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.43% | -296.71 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.30% | -36.32 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.54% | -309.91 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.95% | +115.53 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.67% | -82.23 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -3.19% | -389.41 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -4.14% | -505.92 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.06% | +129.09 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.83% | -223.86 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.53% | +186.50 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.61% | +318.46 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.66% | +446.71 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.36% | +532.17 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.27% | -154.94 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.21% | +513.46 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +3.56% | +434.63 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.37% | +289.53 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +3.13% | +382.51 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.12% | +259.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.47% | +423.60 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +2.85% | +347.89 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.81% | +220.83 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.34% | +285.94 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +3.13% | +381.81 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +5.85% | +713.65 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +3.15% | +384.67 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.81% | +343.59 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.42% | +417.67 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +7.07% | +863.64 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.31% | +282.07 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.46% | +55.93 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.12% | +137.00 |
Time cycles suggest a retracement or retest of the lows is coming. But, the market is clearly on its way in recovery mode now.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Turnaround Week Sees Profit-Taking
Stocks ended the week on a down note after a huge rally midweek. The week's lows were reached early on after a US trading holiday Monday caused a mini-crash outside the US in the wake of forced liquidation from a French bank. This type of events (large bankruptcies and rogue trading scandals) tend to culminate bear markets and this one seems to have put a firm bottom into the market, although the possibility of a retest is ever-present. The cathartic selling we saw in the first half of the week hit all of the resting sell stops and cleaned the market of the remaining weak hands.
The selloff in stocks has more than discounted a recession. In fact, it has discounted almost a depression. Stocks are yielding twice as much as bonds, which makes them hugely undervalued. When consumer goods go on sale, shoppers line up before dawn to snatch bargain buys. When stock markets go on sale, those same consumers flood their brokers with sell orders. The herd mentality plays right into the hands of savvy long term investors who buy for the long term uptrend in stocks.
Friday's session, as expected, saw some inevitable profit-taking in stocks which was telegraphed on Thursday by relative weakness in the broad list compared to blue chips:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.38% | -171.44 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.00% | -124.36 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.46% | -304.87 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.52% | +311.63 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.56% | -192.72 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.44% | -178.82 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.19% | -394.35 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.05% | +378.02 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.28% | -158.90 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.18% | -146.57 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.63% | -78.55 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +3.24% | +400.58 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +5.71% | +707.07 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.20% | +148.26 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.53% | -66.12 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.72% | -89.74 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.50% | -186.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.55% | +192.46 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.04% | -252.67 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.05% | -253.58 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.38% | -542.49 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.84% | +599.13 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.89% | -110.62 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.77% | -95.76 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.21% | -150.11 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.76% | +217.96 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.39% | -48.22 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.14% | +17.21 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.24% | +30.23 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.82% | -224.90 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.38% | -541.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.42% | +547.44 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.03% | -250.75 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.87% | -107.81 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.16% | +143.46 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.42% | +52.34 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.93% | +114.79 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +5.71% | +707.07 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.54% | +66.98 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.84% | +599.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.52% | +311.63 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.05% | +378.02 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.76% | +217.96 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.20% | +148.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.55% | +192.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.62% | +448.04 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.85% | +228.84 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.92% | +114.22 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.25% | +402.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.47% | +305.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +2.43% | +301.04 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.06% | -131.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.67% | +330.41 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.91% | +484.48 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.61% | +570.96 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.90% | +235.58 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.30% | +160.38 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.87% | +354.77 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.29% | +159.41 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.42% | +547.44 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.79% | +469.66 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +3.04% | +376.78 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.81% | -100.70 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.29% | +35.62 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.06% | +379.19 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.39% | +419.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.12% | -386.08 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.41% | +50.95 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.38% | -542.49 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.46% | -304.87 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.19% | -394.35 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.21% | -150.11 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +3.24% | +400.58 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.50% | -186.03 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -4.08% | -505.35 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.63% | -449.37 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -3.54% | -438.73 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.17% | -20.70 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.43% | -53.07 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.22% | -151.40 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.31% | +38.20 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.52% | -311.69 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.78% | -467.66 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -5.25% | -649.61 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -3.15% | -389.60 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.68% | +83.71 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.60% | -321.83 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.61% | -446.69 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.38% | -541.94 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.36% | -416.14 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.74% | -215.53 |
Although we can't definitely say the bull market has started, we can confidently look forward to some base-building to launch that next bull market in the very near future.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Friday, January 25, 2008
Blue Chips Advance, But Broad Market Retreats
Stocks continued to advance Thursday following the huge rally Wednesday, but the strength was in the blue chip sectors and the broad market consolidated gains. Without follow-through to the upside, this rally is looking more like an oversold rebound in a bear market.
Upside volume lagged downside volume in the Russell 2000 Index of small stocks, but was positive in the S&P 500 and NYSE Composite Index. A sustainable rally would see the Russell 2000 continue to lead the way higher. However, outside of small stocks, the market did show some strength and that could help push indices higher in coming days. But, unless the small stocks pick up the pace, the rally is unlikely to forestall a retest of recent lows.
Here are Thursday's results:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.88% | +108.44 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.59% | +73.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +227.89 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.62% | -198.38 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.27% | +155.37 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.84% | +103.58 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.49% | +183.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.80% | -221.15 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.55% | +190.30 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.73% | +211.79 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.12% | +14.24 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.20% | -24.31 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.61% | -74.41 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.19% | -23.70 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.01% | +0.88 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.07% | -8.89 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.10% | -12.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.68% | +82.94 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +3.01% | +369.23 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.02% | +248.08 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.91% | +357.19 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.25% | -399.27 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.19% | +146.35 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.16% | +142.43 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.71% | +209.55 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -217.71 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.88% | +598.95 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.48% | +549.98 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.49% | +305.74 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.50% | +306.53 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.85% | +717.40 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.77% | -708.44 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.63% | +77.91 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.59% | -194.76 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.39% | -47.86 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.69% | -84.65 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.05% | -129.20 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.61% | -74.41 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.40% | -49.21 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.25% | -399.27 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.62% | -198.38 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.80% | -221.15 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -217.71 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.19% | -23.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.68% | +82.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.21% | -271.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.15% | -263.48 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.63% | -200.23 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -4.05% | -496.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +1.07% | +130.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.16% | -19.27 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -10.94% | -1342.77 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.83% | -102.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.06% | +7.86 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.83% | -101.84 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.73% | +90.09 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.48% | -304.70 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -6.09% | -746.88 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +3.29% | +403.41 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.77% | -708.44 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -6.40% | -785.36 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +4.74% | +581.47 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.54% | -311.32 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -2.81% | -344.65 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -5.44% | -667.86 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -3.57% | -437.69 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.41% | -295.78 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.17% | +143.88 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.91% | +357.19 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +227.89 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.49% | +183.24 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.71% | +209.55 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.20% | -24.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.10% | -12.45 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.21% | +270.76 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.75% | +336.89 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +8.72% | +1070.38 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.38% | +168.75 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +7.60% | +932.33 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.16% | +19.09 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +11.19% | +1372.52 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.13% | +15.37 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.53% | -65.13 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.14% | +262.41 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.62% | -75.60 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.21% | +25.74 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +5.45% | +668.17 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.40% | -416.86 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.85% | +717.40 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +6.76% | +829.18 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -4.32% | -529.78 |
Given the positive news background of a rebate check for taxpayers to stimulate the economy, the lack of small stock participation in Thursday's rally casts doubt on the staying power of this rally.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Sharp Trend Reversal to the Upside
Stocks reversed sharply higher Wednesday, turning the trend higher after testing long term support levels. From an intraday low of 11,644, the Dow soared 626 points to close at 12,270. That's still almost 2000 points below its all-time high record set on October 11th, but it's a very good start after an 18% haircut.
Stocks in general had been on sale for the past few months. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks had been slashed 24% from high to low by Tuesday's intraday low. That's definitely in the zone for an average bear market.
Wednesday's results:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +2.50% | +298.98 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +2.92% | +349.44 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.29% | +513.94 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -5.39% | -644.83 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +2.13% | +254.50 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +2.40% | +287.56 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +5.11% | +611.15 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -5.07% | -607.39 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.67% | +199.74 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.53% | +182.62 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +3.28% | +393.10 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +6.32% | +756.55 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -3.06% | -366.85 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -7.24% | -866.19 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +3.25% | +389.31 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +3.42% | +408.96 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +6.69% | +800.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.03% | -841.98 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.21% | -25.07 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.36% | -43.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.88% | +105.63 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.59% | -70.84 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.26% | +270.55 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.31% | +276.36 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.55% | +544.23 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -5.73% | -686.47 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.13% | -255.12 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.65% | -316.81 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.32% | -38.02 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.23% | +147.24 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +6.45% | +772.69 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -7.19% | -860.26 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +6.44% | +770.73 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.63% | +195.05 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -2.61% | -312.83 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -2.59% | -309.55 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.34% | -279.63 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -3.06% | -366.85 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.81% | -336.83 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.59% | -70.84 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -5.39% | -644.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -5.07% | -607.39 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -5.73% | -686.47 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -7.24% | -866.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.03% | -841.98 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -5.32% | -636.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -4.19% | -501.54 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -5.56% | -665.32 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -4.66% | -558.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -7.74% | -926.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -5.95% | -712.67 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.53% | +63.58 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.22% | -385.71 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.94% | -711.33 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -13.66% | -1634.83 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.32% | +158.32 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.96% | -474.17 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.96% | -115.37 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -16.92% | -2025.32 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -7.19% | -860.26 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.14% | -136.83 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -5.95% | -712.06 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.87% | -104.22 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.82% | +98.33 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.31% | -156.69 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.02% | -241.68 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.26% | -151.00 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -6.41% | -767.38 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.88% | +105.63 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.29% | +513.94 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +5.11% | +611.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.55% | +544.23 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +6.32% | +756.55 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +6.69% | +800.67 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +4.68% | +560.60 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.50% | +298.75 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.02% | -2.83 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +4.18% | +500.46 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +4.21% | +504.56 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.21% | +144.67 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.59% | +309.62 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +6.90% | +825.97 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +13.00% | +1556.36 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.94% | -112.41 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +4.73% | +566.40 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.09% | -10.43 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +17.70% | +2118.68 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +6.45% | +772.69 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.66% | -79.11 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +5.31% | +635.31 |
Despite the reversal, this market has to prove itself before the average investor will get back into the water. On Wednesday, 321 new 52-week lows on the NYSE Exchange were recorded before the rally began. Thursday, the market will need to do considerably better than that. Once the market proves it can sustain a new uptrend, cash which has been sidelined in fear of a recession is likely to come gushing back into the market.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Fed Slashes Interest Rates 75 Basis Points
The Fed reacted to world stock market turmoil and slashed overnight rates by ¾% before regular Tuesday stock and bond market trading began. Although the cash stock market opened hundreds of points down from Friday's close, program traders soon pushed the market solidly higher. Some of the buying was from hedge funds covering short sales, some from mutual funds loading the boat with cheap shares, and a spattering of retail investors looking for bargains. The latter were mostly cautious, waiting for a retest of the lows to buy. They have the cash and the shopping list, but are waiting for the clearance sale on the merchandise.
The session ended with the Dow having rallied 458 points off the low of the day to its high point. The market closed 121.53 points down from the high of the day:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.06% | -128.11 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.12% | -135.47 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.08% | -251.75 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.06% | +249.18 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.46% | -176.19 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.01% | -122.77 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.16% | -261.58 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.40% | +290.56 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.52% | -183.91 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.38% | -166.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.02% | -2.76 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.15% | +139.22 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.33% | +39.47 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.97% | +117.68 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.23% | -27.85 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.71% | -86.40 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.22% | -26.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.58% | +69.76 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -4.11% | -496.86 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.58% | -312.15 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.44% | -657.81 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.36% | +648.72 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.47% | -57.12 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.50% | -61.04 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.61% | -73.56 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.08% | +130.64 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.17% | +262.91 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.40% | +290.34 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.86% | +103.80 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.89% | -350.13 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.09% | -494.89 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.58% | +554.67 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.26% | +272.85 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.80% | +339.10 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.12% | +135.70 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.63% | +197.61 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.47% | +57.15 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.33% | +39.47 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.39% | +47.34 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.36% | +648.72 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.06% | +249.18 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.40% | +290.56 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.08% | +130.64 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.97% | +117.68 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.58% | +69.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.61% | +73.82 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +4.66% | +563.68 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.40% | -48.75 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.30% | +399.33 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -2.23% | -269.87 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +2.35% | +284.19 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.37% | +408.06 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +3.57% | +431.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.79% | -337.63 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -5.28% | -639.26 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +5.97% | +722.42 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.41% | +49.13 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +5.91% | +714.66 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -7.42% | -897.86 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.58% | +554.67 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +6.82% | +824.79 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +6.54% | +791.86 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.21% | +388.06 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +3.01% | +363.64 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +8.22% | +993.99 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +5.05% | +611.17 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +7.25% | +876.74 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +12.07% | +1460.26 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.44% | -657.81 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.08% | -251.75 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.16% | -261.58 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.61% | -73.56 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.15% | +139.22 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.22% | -26.13 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.54% | +185.75 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.80% | -339.27 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.74% | +89.30 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.75% | -212.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.66% | +200.26 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.95% | -235.59 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.48% | -299.94 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.28% | -275.42 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.90% | +229.45 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +5.42% | +655.49 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -5.61% | -679.13 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.94% | -113.42 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.44% | -536.95 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +5.58% | +675.14 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.09% | -494.89 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -5.74% | -694.22 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -5.89% | -712.51 |
Although the market rallied nicely, a retest of the lows is almost guaranteed, considering that the NYSE registered 947 new lows (NASDAQ had 838).
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Wall Street Panics on Bond Insurance Insolvency Fears
This year's sharp plunge in stock values appears to be sending a message that Wall Street has lost confidence in the power of the Fed, the Congress and the Administration to stem the tide of red ink which is washing over the banking system. Whether the market is correct or not will be determined in the fullness of time, of course. The market, despite what some pundits say, is not always right (of course, it never pays to argue with a market which is wrong since it can persist in its wrong position far longer than you can).
Last week, just as the concern over banks was dying down, new fears that insurance companies which had guaranteed mortgage bonds were heading rapidly for insolvency plunged the market through the bottom of the trading range. Up to that time, the market had been moving sideways, apparently waiting to see whether the monetary and fiscal authorities in Washington would finally rein in the credit meltdown. Last week, the market decided that time was up. Washington had proven incapable of addressing the problems. Fed Chairman Bernanke had talked about rate cuts, but failed to deliver on that promise with an inter-meeting rate cut. President Bush mouthed general principles, but offered nothing more than a tax rebate that had virtually no chance of preventing a recession. And, Congress proved so clueless than one member confused the Fed Chairman for the Treasury Secretary. It would have been funny if the financial foundations of the economy weren't at stake now.
Most observers now are convinced that a bear market has started and that a recession is not only inevitable, but has already begun. The week was painted red in the stock market:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -4.02% | -507.00 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -4.45% | -561.43 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -8.07% | -1017.03 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +9.45% | +1191.65 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -5.40% | -680.96 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -5.77% | -727.68 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -11.47% | -1446.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +12.70% | +1600.73 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -5.91% | -745.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -6.12% | -771.06 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.82% | -482.06 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -8.79% | -1107.49 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +3.87% | +488.02 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +7.96% | +1003.58 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -4.50% | -566.67 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -4.27% | -538.58 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -9.92% | -1250.82 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +9.80% | +1235.46 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -3.71% | -467.39 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -3.61% | -455.49 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -8.07% | -1016.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.65% | +964.51 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -5.02% | -633.46 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -5.07% | -638.74 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -10.25% | -1292.05 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +11.38% | +1434.17 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -8.12% | -1023.20 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -7.78% | -981.18 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.31% | -165.09 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.26% | +158.87 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -10.54% | -1328.95 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +9.53% | +1201.22 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -7.43% | -936.63 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +4.13% | +520.27 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +4.28% | +539.23 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +5.73% | +722.34 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +5.45% | +686.72 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +3.87% | +488.02 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +4.24% | +535.11 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.65% | +964.51 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +9.45% | +1191.65 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +12.70% | +1600.73 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +11.38% | +1434.17 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +7.96% | +1003.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +9.80% | +1235.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +13.36% | +1684.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +9.97% | +1257.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +12.47% | +1572.39 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +10.90% | +1374.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +8.55% | +1077.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +9.76% | +1230.86 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +14.81% | +1867.39 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +9.87% | +1244.53 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.93% | +496.02 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +17.25% | +2174.01 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +10.66% | +1344.13 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +8.89% | +1120.69 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +17.53% | +2210.45 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +8.86% | +1117.26 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +9.53% | +1201.22 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +6.34% | +798.85 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +15.57% | +1962.27 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +7.40% | +932.67 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +4.75% | +598.63 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +9.27% | +1169.16 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +15.53% | +1957.95 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.98% | +501.11 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +17.17% | +2164.72 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -8.07% | -1016.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -8.07% | -1017.03 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -11.47% | -1446.00 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -10.25% | -1292.05 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -8.79% | -1107.49 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -9.92% | -1250.82 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -13.55% | -1707.95 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -10.29% | -1297.59 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -11.89% | -1499.43 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -10.43% | -1315.06 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -8.51% | -1072.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -8.72% | -1099.68 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -15.06% | -1898.71 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -9.71% | -1224.00 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.37% | -425.37 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -15.06% | -1899.06 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -9.22% | -1162.93 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -8.09% | -1020.14 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -16.32% | -2057.12 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -7.85% | -989.40 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -10.54% | -1328.95 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -7.53% | -949.72 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -14.57% | -1837.31 |
Late in the week, some were calling for a "Resolution Trust Corporation"-type bailout by the government which would takeover bond insurance and stabilize the system. If the bond insurers go under, it could prevent banks from lending, and cause a tsunami of business failures to ripple through the economy.
It's important that the Democrats and Republicans stop pointing fingers at each other for causing this problem and come up with a workable solution. For the last year, the market has been in turmoil. That should have been plenty of time for a long term solution to have been devised and implemented. Instead, what we have is a financial system which is spinning out of control and the Powers-That-Be in Washington seem to have no understanding either of the causes of the problem or any real solutions.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Wall Street Demands Easy Money
The stock market sent a wake-up call to politicians Thursday by plunging 300 points on the Dow. That call basically said, "Feed me easy money." Despite the lack of rational evidence from any objective econometric model that the economy is entering a recession (all the available evidence points to a minor, mid-cycle slowdown, to be followed by an acceleration in growth later this year), Wall Street threw one of its usual temper tantrums when fear of recession overtakes it. This is the origin of the famous aphorism about the stock market about how it has correctly forecast the last nine of five recessions.
While the evidence points toward an economic recovery very soon from the current slowdown, this "sale on stocks" presents an excellent opportunity to clear-headed investors to load up on relatively-cheap shares to hold for the coming reversal to the upside. As is usually the case during these "sales" (known as "bear markets"), the average investor stops buying on the way down and often simply sells out when the pain of declining asset prices gets too intense. But, a simple "back of the envelope" calculation clearly shows that these temporary dips in prices are an excellent time to perform dollar-cost-averaging. We published a study in 2005 which showed that if an investor had started buying, on a regular monthly basis, shares in an S&P 500 index fund right at the 2000 bubble top with a fixed amount of dollars, they would have outperformed most mutual funds through the last bear market and bull market recovery. That's because buying a fixed dollar amount of index funds means you buy more on the way down.
In fact, the S&P 500 Index was one of the poorest performers in both the last bear market and the last bull market. If you had dollar-averaged purchases in the Russell 2000 over the same period of time, your portfolio would have trounced most other strategies with outstanding profits. But, we're in a different part of the cycle now and with the US Dollar considerably lower in value today, the S&P 500 Index makes a good one to dollar-average into.
So, instead of ruing the vagaries of the market, blaming the PPT or selling in disgust, it's time to step up to the plate and invest with the best of them if you're an investor. This isn't rocket science, by the way. On the day of the October 1987 Crash in the stock market, investors lined up at our local Fidelity Investments office. The line stretched outside. But, it wasn't investors trying to sell their stocks who couldn't get through on the phones, which were totally swamped with calls. It was investors who saw the crash for what it was: an excellent buying opportunity. History shows that they were right. The Dow bottomed at 1738 that day and proceeded to resume the uptrend, peaking recently at 14,198, a gain of 716%.
The carnage on the street Thursday was partially due to index option writers hedging their short positions in puts by selling the futures short. In any case, long term investors send their thanks for the opportunity to obtain cheaper shares:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.46% | -306.95 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.31% | -288.03 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.69% | -584.90 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.97% | +620.00 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.78% | -346.60 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.59% | -323.08 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -5.55% | -691.32 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.46% | +681.19 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.80% | -349.63 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -3.10% | -386.24 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.62% | -326.70 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.49% | -560.30 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.69% | +335.83 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.22% | +525.92 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.66% | -331.82 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.43% | -302.83 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.40% | -673.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.80% | +598.73 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.33% | -166.06 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.39% | -173.25 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.75% | -342.70 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.05% | +379.87 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.90% | -361.27 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.87% | -357.32 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.40% | -673.02 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.54% | +690.88 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.20% | -273.74 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.88% | -234.87 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.23% | -28.76 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.59% | -198.82 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.93% | -490.20 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.91% | +237.66 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -4.33% | -539.78 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.53% | +190.69 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.46% | +306.17 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.68% | +333.91 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.83% | +352.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.69% | +335.83 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.52% | +314.54 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.05% | +379.87 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.97% | +620.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.46% | +681.19 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.54% | +690.88 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.22% | +525.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.80% | +598.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +6.86% | +855.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +8.18% | +1020.32 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +6.26% | +780.52 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +6.08% | +757.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.69% | +459.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.55% | +567.77 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +11.01% | +1372.06 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +3.65% | +455.47 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.12% | +389.17 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +5.58% | +695.45 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +3.95% | +492.78 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +8.79% | +1096.05 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +7.39% | +921.29 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.99% | +123.99 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.91% | +237.66 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.31% | +413.18 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +8.25% | +1028.95 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.30% | +411.30 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.71% | +212.93 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.19% | +398.10 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +6.48% | +807.69 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.52% | +314.46 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +4.13% | +514.91 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.75% | -342.70 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.69% | -584.90 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -5.55% | -691.32 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.40% | -673.02 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.49% | -560.30 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.40% | -673.25 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -6.74% | -840.76 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -4.75% | -591.88 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -4.58% | -570.63 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -6.02% | -750.81 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.33% | -788.80 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -5.65% | -704.22 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -10.31% | -1284.71 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.18% | -396.81 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.95% | -492.67 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -8.11% | -1011.24 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -3.56% | -443.26 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -7.27% | -906.84 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -7.75% | -966.37 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.49% | -434.82 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.93% | -490.20 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.10% | -385.84 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -7.43% | -926.50 |
Wall Street is certain get the easy money. When it does, they'll find a way to send stocks back up the hill. You can count on it.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Market Frustrates Bearish Majority
Just when the crowd was waiting for the crash, the market decided to dig in its heels like a stubborn mule. Lately, even the slightest hint of a disappointment from a company insider seems to cause billions of dollars of market value to disappear. So, when Intel took a $14 Billion haircut Tuesday evening, it would have been reasonable to expect the market to dip on Wednesday. Yes, it dipped, but came fighting right back to the incredulity of the bears. And, although the headline blue chips did end very slightly lower on the day, the broad market actually advanced on the session. That's definitely not a sign of weakness:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.28% | -34.95 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.52% | -64.85 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.90% | -112.61 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.53% | +190.94 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.55% | -69.16 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.86% | -107.67 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.32% | -165.07 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.64% | +204.56 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.08% | -134.58 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.79% | -98.31 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.42% | +52.93 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.40% | -49.75 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.59% | -74.04 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.36% | -44.91 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.32% | +39.61 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.04% | +5.39 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.42% | +52.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.24% | +29.94 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.97% | -120.91 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.07% | -134.28 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.94% | -367.23 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.22% | +26.88 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.48% | -59.85 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.73% | -90.92 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.45% | -181.40 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.59% | +199.17 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -4.31% | -538.27 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -4.65% | -580.99 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.47% | -183.28 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.66% | +82.83 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -9.55% | -1193.86 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +11.04% | +1379.99 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.25% | +155.76 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.76% | +220.26 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.73% | +91.79 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.70% | +87.20 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.84% | +105.55 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.59% | -74.04 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.04% | -4.75 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.22% | +26.88 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.53% | +190.94 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.64% | +204.56 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.59% | +199.17 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.36% | -44.91 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.24% | +29.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.01% | +126.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.27% | +33.44 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.39% | +48.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +2.01% | +251.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.11% | -138.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.18% | +147.55 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +8.07% | +1008.25 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.22% | +152.90 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.38% | -297.41 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.77% | -220.89 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.35% | -168.31 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.91% | +113.90 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.78% | +847.79 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.54% | -316.96 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +11.04% | +1379.99 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.40% | +549.46 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.92% | +365.44 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.89% | +485.72 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.79% | +223.84 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.86% | +481.96 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +8.42% | +1052.53 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.23% | +403.59 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +6.49% | +811.80 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.94% | -367.23 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.90% | -112.61 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.32% | -165.07 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.45% | -181.40 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.40% | -49.75 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.42% | +52.15 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.30% | -38.10 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.50% | -312.23 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.93% | -365.87 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.34% | -167.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.23% | +403.47 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.37% | -46.59 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -7.78% | -972.70 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.44% | -55.53 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.97% | +371.55 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.88% | +359.74 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.72% | +89.89 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.24% | +29.59 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.66% | -832.20 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.80% | -99.49 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -9.55% | -1193.86 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.32% | -540.04 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.37% | -296.82 |
Bonds initially rallied on stock market weakness, but reversed and closed the day on a sour note. Lately, bonds have benefitted from the falling stock market. But, when stocks rally, bonds fall. And, on Wednesday, bonds fell in what may be a new bearish trend that's developing.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Market Tumbles on Disappointing Layoffs
The always fickle stock market tumbled Tuesday, mostly on disappointment that more employees weren't being terminated at Citigroup. Although this is exactly what the market was expected to do, that rationale was only the latest in a series of excuses the market has used to express its disappointment with the outlook for stocks.
Although the market tested the bottom of the recent trading range (and extended it on the blue chips), the broad market showed uncommon strength as volume declined on the selloff. This is a bullish indication that the bears are running out of force to the downside. The market did pretty much exactly what we told subscribers it would do, however, as it continues to follow the script we've been laying out:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.17% | -277.04 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.73% | -221.47 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.66% | -468.01 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.09% | +395.32 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -3.14% | -401.68 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.20% | -281.29 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.71% | -601.69 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.36% | +557.68 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.83% | -361.67 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.84% | -362.43 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.98% | -253.03 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.99% | -382.28 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.14% | +273.91 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.71% | +474.56 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.16% | -275.48 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.78% | -227.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.67% | -469.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.15% | +402.52 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -4.66% | -595.85 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.76% | -352.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.57% | -583.61 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.17% | +915.88 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.37% | -302.77 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.28% | -291.57 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.49% | -573.70 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.70% | +600.11 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.84% | -490.61 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.96% | -505.66 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.73% | -221.20 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -3.15% | -401.93 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.11% | -780.36 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.27% | +800.62 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.49% | -445.34 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.78% | +354.95 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.87% | +238.94 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.40% | +306.27 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.34% | +299.13 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.14% | +273.91 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.98% | +252.69 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.17% | +915.88 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.09% | +395.32 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.36% | +557.68 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.70% | +600.11 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.71% | +474.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.15% | +402.52 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.74% | +477.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +4.29% | +547.74 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +4.40% | +562.25 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.51% | +576.30 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.88% | +495.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.12% | +526.23 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +7.06% | +901.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +3.03% | +387.22 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.62% | +462.08 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +7.13% | +911.47 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +2.60% | +332.74 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +4.50% | +574.39 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.94% | +886.25 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.30% | +677.29 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.27% | +800.62 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.77% | +354.10 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.06% | +263.55 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +4.80% | +613.15 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +3.41% | +435.48 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +6.76% | +864.07 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +8.63% | +1103.02 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +6.58% | +840.86 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +15.90% | +2031.41 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.57% | -583.61 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.66% | -468.01 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.71% | -601.69 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.49% | -573.70 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.99% | -382.28 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.67% | -469.46 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.90% | -498.21 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -4.02% | -513.15 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.80% | -230.53 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -100.00% | -12778.15 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -3.49% | -445.42 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.96% | -505.45 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.95% | -760.93 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.00% | -383.60 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.08% | -393.57 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -5.88% | -751.04 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.27% | -290.10 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -5.26% | -672.53 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.92% | -884.01 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.53% | -195.92 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.11% | -780.36 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.56% | -582.69 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.89% | -369.41 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, January 14, 2008
Options Expiration Week Starts With a Rally
As is often the case in the week preceding options expiration (always the week containing the third Friday of the month), stocks got a lift. Some months, the pressure of expiring options is up, as this month is. Other months, the pressure is downward, such as December was. Although options aren't the predominant force acting upon the market, they often create a pull, like gravity, which draws the market toward their central tendency. Such appears to be the case this month, much as it has in most other months with the trend dead neutral.
Thus it was that IBM's pre-announcement of much better-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter of 2007 shocked the market before the opening Monday morning. Few short sellers had expected good news on earnings from the tech sector, but there it was: IBM was reaping the benefits of the cheap dollar in spades. And, that caused a scramble to buy the tech stocks. Although much of the buying pressure was from the hapless bears who were short the tech stocks, there was a genuine lift given the market from this unexpectedly good news. If the central pivot prices given by our January index options are any indication, there is more to come by Friday. And, it could create a short covering panic shortly (S&P 500 options expire on Thursday at Friday's opening index value calculated using opening prices of its component shares; other index options expire on the close Friday).
Another thing the shorts should keep in mind: the Federal Reserve's last surprise rate cut occured early on the morning of options expiration, creating a huge opening gap up which turned to dust many of the puts which appeared to be in-the-money at expiration. It also created profits of several thousand percentage points in call options which had been given up for dead the night before. If the Fed wants to make a statement to the market, they could do it again and do it this week. Remember the old phase, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me." The crowd is as bearish now as they were at the end of the last bear market. That suggests that we could be very near an explosive short-covering panic.
Monday's rally retraced much of last week's decline, but while the shorts did cover initially, they appeared to be at work again, selling into the close:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.36% | +171.85 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.05% | +131.87 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.96% | +247.70 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.87% | -236.04 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.03% | +130.11 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.81% | +101.64 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +221.31 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.33% | -167.37 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.98% | +123.90 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.83% | +104.48 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.13% | +142.13 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.70% | +88.21 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.89% | -111.73 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.70% | -213.95 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.19% | +150.38 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.83% | +104.13 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.67% | +210.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.45% | -182.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.77% | +222.82 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.74% | +219.71 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.61% | +329.40 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.93% | -369.45 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.03% | +129.51 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.08% | +136.65 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.15% | +271.42 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.29% | -289.23 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.37% | +172.34 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.72% | +216.44 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.08% | +136.62 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.04% | +383.29 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +7.20% | +907.57 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.95% | -875.82 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.80% | +100.45 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.78% | -224.22 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.47% | -185.80 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.10% | -138.53 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.93% | -117.72 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.89% | -111.73 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.38% | -173.55 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.93% | -369.45 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.87% | -236.04 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.33% | -167.37 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.29% | -289.23 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.70% | -213.95 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.45% | -182.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.41% | -52.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.24% | -282.23 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.18% | -148.26 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.26% | -284.59 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.98% | -249.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -2.37% | -299.27 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -7.18% | -905.31 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.17% | +20.84 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.45% | -56.25 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.11% | -140.22 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.74% | +219.95 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.30% | -290.26 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.22% | -405.41 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.12% | -14.83 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.95% | -875.82 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.51% | -442.29 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.34% | -42.77 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.24% | -282.17 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.42% | -178.42 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -3.13% | -394.92 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.63% | -332.14 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.61% | -328.42 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.39% | +49.24 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.61% | +329.40 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.96% | +247.70 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +221.31 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.15% | +271.42 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.70% | +88.21 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.67% | +210.92 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.70% | +88.30 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.06% | +134.23 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12606.30 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -100.00% | -12606.30 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.09% | +264.09 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.32% | +166.90 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +7.24% | +912.36 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.32% | -166.18 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.85% | +107.05 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.12% | +141.57 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.78% | -98.04 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.89% | +364.61 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.47% | +438.03 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.71% | -89.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +7.20% | +907.57 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +4.05% | +510.21 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.42% | +53.34 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Basing Action
Last week, the market held support in the price area it had to hold support in. The NYSE Composite Index formed a low just above a key and rising support trendline, while the S&P 500 also held above a key trendline. Although the market did retest the lows on Friday, they held on the retest, proving they are strong. This is exactly how a bull market corrects, forms a base and prepares to launch its next foray to new highs. That the vast majority of investors are bearish (and many are short) testifies to the power of momentum to wrong-foot investors at major turning points.
The market dipped on Friday, but held above key support levels:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.92% | -246.79 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.28% | -163.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.94% | -378.22 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.87% | +240.40 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.36% | -174.74 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.81% | -103.71 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.87% | -239.75 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.63% | +208.99 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.51% | -194.05 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.39% | -179.01 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.03% | -261.48 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.83% | -364.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.74% | +223.28 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.46% | +444.89 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.11% | -271.62 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.02% | -260.04 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.58% | -460.50 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.49% | +448.57 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.06% | -264.94 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.96% | -251.76 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.76% | -355.03 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.04% | +391.10 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.41% | -181.27 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.39% | -178.91 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.53% | -325.16 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.46% | +316.74 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.90% | +115.67 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.77% | +98.83 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.37% | +48.06 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.39% | -307.01 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.89% | -628.63 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.32% | +683.16 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.26% | -33.09 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.97% | +253.49 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.55% | +198.64 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.35% | +173.83 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.13% | +145.67 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.74% | +223.28 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.43% | +312.14 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.04% | +391.10 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.87% | +240.40 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.63% | +208.99 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.46% | +316.74 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.46% | +444.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.49% | +448.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.39% | +178.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.91% | +373.96 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.74% | +95.00 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.67% | +471.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.22% | +542.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.52% | +581.27 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.00% | +256.77 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +4.33% | +556.11 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.04% | +519.39 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.62% | -337.29 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.11% | -14.52 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.16% | +406.40 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +3.43% | +441.10 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.79% | +101.61 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.32% | +683.16 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.65% | +469.48 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.50% | +192.65 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.12% | +401.49 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.91% | +246.04 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +4.02% | +516.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +5.43% | +697.99 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.62% | +465.90 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +7.27% | +933.99 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.76% | -355.03 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.94% | -378.22 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.87% | -239.75 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.53% | -325.16 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.83% | -364.11 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.58% | -460.50 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.95% | -250.88 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.56% | -328.57 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12853.09 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -3.18% | -408.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.28% | -549.65 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.75% | -482.36 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.92% | -246.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.79% | -487.27 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -4.26% | -547.23 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.14% | -146.18 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.35% | -44.65 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -4.85% | -622.80 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -3.16% | -406.46 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.24% | -30.36 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.89% | -628.63 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.31% | -425.74 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.94% | -248.88 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Rate Cuts Assured By Fed If Needed
Fed Head Ben Bernanke made assurances that, although the Fed doesn't expect a recession to occur, they would be quick to slash interest rates to stimulate the economy should incoming data point toward a downturn. The market rallied fitfully on that statement, but bears were quick to seize the rally as an opportunity to sell short.
Investors are convinced that a recession is not only inevitable, it has already begun. This is shown by the sentiment gauges, which show that the public is almost as bearish now as they were at the bottom of the 1990 recession. That was after stocks had precipitously fallen 20% in two months. The broad market then proceded to gain over 350% in the next eight years. Will history repeat? It certainly could happen, since fundamentally stocks are more undervalued now than they were 18 years ago.
Thursday's gains followed on the heels of a rally Wednesday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.92% | +117.78 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.68% | +86.27 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.90% | +242.58 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.74% | -93.64 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.54% | +68.51 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.66% | +83.47 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.55% | +197.68 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.85% | -235.68 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.70% | +89.28 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.16% | +148.29 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.84% | +106.64 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.50% | +190.41 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.72% | -92.21 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.62% | -205.76 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.21% | +153.80 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.33% | +169.25 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.56% | +325.86 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.52% | -320.65 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.10% | -13.13 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.15% | +18.60 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.06% | +7.43 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.16% | -20.52 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.90% | +114.56 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.92% | +116.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.24% | +157.52 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.47% | -187.16 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.01% | +256.22 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.74% | +221.68 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.96% | +250.14 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.11% | -13.69 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.64% | -80.93 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.04% | +5.17 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.16% | +275.27 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.86% | -108.94 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.61% | -78.24 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.55% | -70.53 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.72% | -91.55 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.72% | -92.21 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.06% | -134.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.16% | -20.52 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.74% | -93.64 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.85% | -235.68 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.47% | -187.16 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.62% | -205.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.52% | -320.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.01% | -256.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.41% | -179.87 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.29% | -163.97 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.68% | -341.55 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -2.48% | -315.84 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -2.14% | -272.66 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.77% | -352.57 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.04% | -132.37 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.64% | -336.21 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.02% | -257.12 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.01% | -128.17 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.55% | -197.23 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.01% | +129.05 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.08% | -392.25 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.04% | +5.17 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.75% | -95.18 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.24% | +31.03 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.22% | -154.76 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.08% | +10.31 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.43% | +54.36 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.29% | -292.07 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.87% | +238.43 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.54% | -195.65 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.06% | +7.43 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.90% | +242.58 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.55% | +197.68 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.24% | +157.52 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.50% | +190.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.56% | +325.86 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +3.65% | +465.23 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.37% | +301.91 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +4.53% | +577.14 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.17% | +276.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.65% | +209.54 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +2.18% | +277.10 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +3.13% | +398.72 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.13% | +144.02 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +6.74% | +857.94 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +4.09% | +520.47 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.66% | +83.93 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +4.13% | +526.11 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.98% | -125.23 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +3.49% | +444.82 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.64% | -80.93 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.09% | -11.19 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.36% | +45.67 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Too Many Bears on the Bus
Stocks reversed course on Wednesday as the bears piling on the bus made it clear that there were no others willing to sell. The market did what it had to do in this situation: it went up. We do a daily calculation based upon the level of open interest in some of the index options (SPX, OEX, etc.) and it has been showing that the market was getting very deeply oversold. One statistic which is very useful is something we call "Central Pivot Price," which represents the strike price at which the sum of call and put dollar values would be at a minimum at expiration of the regular monthly options (always the third Friday of each month). When the market moves too far from that strike price, it builds up a great deal of "tension" due to the imbalance between the two sides of the option trade (the writer and the buyer). As expiration approaches, there is a great deal of pressure for that imbalance to be corrected.
Another measure we use is something we call the "Minimum Difference Price," which is the strike at which the absolute difference between call and put values at expiration is minimized. This is similar to CPP, but is sometimes the more important attractor as expiration approaches.
Now, this month in the SPX index options, we have CPP at 1450 and MDP at 1460. At Wednesday's low point, SPX traded at 1378.75, which was 71.25 points below CPP and 81.25 points below MDP. That's a pretty substantial differential and suggests that the tendency will be for the market to correct that imbalance. Wednesday's rally was a pretty good start in that direction, as the SPX closed at 1408.27, up almost 30 points, +2.14%, from the low of the day:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.16% | +146.24 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.88% | +111.04 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.44% | +180.78 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.63% | -204.88 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.30% | +163.73 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.05% | +132.32 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.25% | +282.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.80% | -226.68 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.06% | +133.07 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.47% | +58.91 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.05% | +132.73 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.07% | +261.09 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.74% | -93.76 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.35% | -296.39 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.06% | +133.77 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.01% | +127.65 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.92% | +241.91 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.99% | -250.05 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.86% | +233.75 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.13% | +268.31 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.20% | +403.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.19% | -401.12 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.47% | +59.73 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.57% | +71.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.76% | +95.99 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.57% | -197.94 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.72% | +90.88 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.65% | +81.78 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.27% | -33.37 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.34% | +42.81 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.89% | +237.35 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.20% | -276.54 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.40% | +176.65 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.24% | -156.28 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.06% | -132.92 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.36% | -170.95 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.79% | -99.54 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.74% | -93.76 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.17% | -147.86 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.19% | -401.12 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.63% | -204.88 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.80% | -226.68 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.57% | -197.94 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.35% | -296.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.99% | -250.05 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.16% | -271.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.93% | -242.68 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.34% | +43.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.88% | +236.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.86% | -108.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.48% | -186.21 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.36% | -44.81 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.59% | -199.89 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -2.29% | -288.10 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.89% | -363.91 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -3.41% | -429.28 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.98% | -123.55 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.23% | -406.10 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.78% | -476.09 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.20% | -276.54 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -4.52% | -569.54 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.93% | -243.16 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -3.19% | -401.05 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.67% | -84.35 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.92% | -241.18 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -6.72% | -846.18 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -4.43% | -557.69 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -12.80% | -1611.50 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.20% | +403.02 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.44% | +180.78 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.25% | +282.77 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.76% | +95.99 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.07% | +261.09 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.92% | +241.91 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.09% | +11.80 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.22% | +153.00 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.53% | -318.88 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.29% | +36.67 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.97% | +121.74 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.12% | +15.74 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.81% | +101.92 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.17% | +147.55 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.69% | -338.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.72% | +342.61 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +3.03% | +382.07 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.06% | -132.92 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.47% | +310.32 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +3.54% | +446.19 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.89% | +237.35 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +5.22% | +657.58 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.19% | +275.29 |
A related market we mentioned to subscribers yesterday also reversed course on Wednesday and this was the final piece of the puzzle in getting the turnaround in stocks going. Its five-wave pattern only needed two more waves to finish on Wednesday. Once those final two waves were in, the direction for stocks was set.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Panic Selling in Stocks
Stocks held up well for most of the day Tuesday, but the afternoon brought a turnaround to the downside as news reports about a possible mortgage banking bankruptcy filing and a vague report about consumers divorcing Ma Bell combined to send the market tumbling into the close. Traders had been repeatedly attempting to push the market lower to set off sell stops, but had been unsuccessful until the last hour of the session. As has been the case many times in recent days, once the range was broken to the downside, buyers pulled bids and sell stops were triggered, sending the market careening lower into the close:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.86% | -238.42 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.73% | -221.37 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.54% | -453.91 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.58% | +458.90 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.78% | -228.89 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.61% | -207.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.44% | -441.47 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.06% | +392.32 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.44% | -184.59 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.21% | -155.65 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.64% | -339.25 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.88% | -625.50 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.75% | +353.07 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.31% | +809.27 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.65% | -340.55 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.09% | -395.92 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.12% | -656.29 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.17% | +791.88 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.21% | -284.08 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.59% | -332.87 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.60% | -590.57 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.98% | +639.12 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.29% | -294.36 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.27% | -290.96 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.08% | -523.20 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.30% | +679.60 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.50% | +448.56 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.55% | +454.95 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.37% | +304.16 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.66% | -341.73 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.86% | -622.90 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.49% | +703.69 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.42% | -438.21 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.38% | +305.69 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.02% | +259.61 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.76% | +226.15 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.54% | +326.30 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.75% | +353.07 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +3.30% | +422.90 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.98% | +639.12 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.58% | +458.90 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.06% | +392.32 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.30% | +679.60 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.31% | +809.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.17% | +791.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +4.63% | +593.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.92% | +375.17 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.55% | +327.17 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.83% | +106.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.99% | +640.21 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.18% | +536.27 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.25% | +288.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.78% | +100.66 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.55% | +584.23 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +7.62% | +977.39 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.58% | -74.77 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +5.01% | +642.41 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.11% | +270.41 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +7.87% | +1009.88 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.49% | +703.69 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +6.64% | +851.43 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.52% | +66.76 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.12% | +144.03 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.27% | +34.47 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.60% | +205.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +2.01% | +258.40 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.73% | +94.07 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +2.32% | +297.94 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.60% | -590.57 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.54% | -453.91 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.44% | -441.47 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.08% | -523.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.88% | -625.50 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.12% | -656.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.75% | -481.52 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.54% | -325.31 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -3.63% | -465.80 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -3.49% | -447.59 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -2.91% | -373.65 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.08% | -395.17 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.76% | -226.21 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.32% | +41.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.32% | -297.93 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -7.08% | -907.62 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.99% | +127.47 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.13% | -401.09 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -3.55% | -455.06 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -7.59% | -973.21 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.86% | -622.90 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -5.70% | -730.66 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.11% | -142.45 |
A related market which has been moving opposite the stock market is forming a terminal pattern which is a definite marker for a trend change. This terminal pattern is an unmistakable precursor to this trend change for both markets. Subscribers can read about it on our Notes page linked below.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, January 07, 2008
Stocks Hold Support At Important Levels
The stock market found a floor and held support Monday. This evening, in our Notes for subscribers only, we take a look at a pattern many have been expecting the market to trace out, but one which many have also given up hope upon, but which we find forming an almost ideal representation. We also will look at a chart of the market where the fluctuations in the value of the dollar are removed, a chart which presents not only a surprisingly bullish pattern, but also a logical reason for that pattern which is hidden by the varying value of the broad trade-weighted dollar against other currencies. In today's marketplace, with currency values which fluctuate widely against each other, the underlying rationale for stock prices to find support and resistance is sometimes hidden by the "noise" introduced by that fluctuating currency. Our chart eliminates that "noise." The picture that emerges makes perfect sense from a technical perspective.
The market consolidated on Monday as we expected it would:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.21% | +27.31 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.09% | -10.99 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.20% | +25.84 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.48% | -62.03 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.28% | +36.15 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.08% | -10.87 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.61% | +77.44 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.32% | +41.00 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.21% | +26.68 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.38% | +48.64 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.07% | +9.54 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.23% | +29.28 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.31% | -39.51 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.39% | +50.56 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.22% | +28.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.01% | -129.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.04% | -4.91 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.56% | -71.62 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.48% | -60.83 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.29% | -165.37 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.83% | +105.66 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.27% | -33.98 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.26% | -33.05 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.45% | -57.35 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.00% | +128.43 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.60% | -205.05 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.68% | -215.47 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.42% | -54.13 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.33% | -42.57 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.15% | -274.61 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.98% | +253.27 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.36% | +46.04 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.39% | +49.90 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.23% | +29.31 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.17% | -22.32 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.26% | +32.64 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.23% | +29.28 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.32% | -40.38 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.83% | +105.66 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.48% | -62.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.61% | +77.44 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.00% | +128.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.31% | -39.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.04% | -4.91 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.51% | +65.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.41% | +308.25 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.13% | -16.94 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.23% | +413.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.71% | -219.07 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.58% | +74.18 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.56% | +455.32 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.93% | -374.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.74% | -94.67 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.81% | -103.04 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -2.85% | -364.36 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.62% | +207.37 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.71% | +346.42 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.18% | -150.89 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.98% | +253.27 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.59% | +331.64 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -3.55% | -454.68 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.78% | -100.16 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.16% | +20.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.59% | -75.45 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.44% | -184.09 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.37% | +47.91 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -4.51% | -577.10 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.29% | -165.37 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.20% | +25.84 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.45% | -57.35 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.07% | +9.54 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.01% | -129.65 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.07% | -9.23 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.05% | -134.64 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.73% | +93.64 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.48% | -189.77 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.51% | +65.04 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.55% | -70.50 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -4.09% | -523.55 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.26% | +289.50 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.09% | -140.15 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.42% | +181.61 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +4.00% | +512.38 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.20% | -409.17 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.03% | -131.48 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.19% | +279.79 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.15% | -274.61 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -2.16% | -276.60 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +4.33% | +554.15 |
Option speculators proved bearish on Monday, and that helps confirm the important support levels the market has found. Details in our Notes page for subscribers only.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 06, 2008
Weak Hands Flee the Market as Unemployment Skyrockets Higher
The weak hands dumped stocks on the release of the always-wrong government Employment Report, which showed the economy might be in recession right now. Traders panicked as the BLS reported that the unemployment rate had leapt from 4.7% to 5.0% in just one month. This was the largest increase in the unemployment rate since the last recession.
We won't reiterate the myriad reasons why the government is always wrong on employment (you've heard them many times in this space before). Yes, there is a minor slowdown in the economy occuring right now which, if continued for two straight quarters, would constitute a very mild recession. But, the employment numbers are not only mostly wrong, they are backward-looking as well. Looking forward, earnings are expected to grow in 2008. And, while the Fed has been too tight, they are gradually easing interest rates and will continue to do so (at least four rate cuts lie ahead). Although the crowd offers inflation and the value of the currency as counter-arguments to this hypothesis, those two arguments are easily countered.
First, inflation. The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has an excellent inflation model which has accurately predicted the course of future inflation for several decades. They call it their Future Inflation Gauge and it had been rising a year ago, correctly predicting a cyclical turn up in inflation. Right now, though, it has turned down and is forecasting a declining rate of inflation. Much of the recent inflation has been due, in fact, to the rise in the prices of various commodities. But, you know how to tell when commodity prices are about to decline, don't you? It's when CNBC starts recommending investors buy commodities. In other words, commodity prices will trend lower, leading to a declining rate of inflation.
Second, the dollar. The US Dollar has bottomed and will be heading higher for several years to come, according to our read of the Real Fed US Dollar Index (not the fake one which is widely quoted).
Of course, the market itself is saying the Fed will be cutting interest rates pretty severely in the near future. Eurodollar futures are a good proxy for the path of Fed policy in the future and they are saying that short term rates are heading for 3% in the coming year. Lower interest rates are a big boost to the economy.
But, the weak hands were falling all over themselves to exit the market on Friday, and on the flimsy excuse of a disappointment with the government's idea of jobs. You'll recall, of course, that the government missed counting a million new jobs just a couple of years ago. Anyone who invests using government numbers should remember the phrase, "Garbage in, garbage out." Here are Friday's numbers:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.96% | -256.54 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.97% | -256.66 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.67% | -479.29 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.22% | +550.37 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.38% | -311.27 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.45% | -319.97 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.74% | -618.68 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.76% | +621.86 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.32% | -302.85 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.31% | -301.34 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.24% | -422.96 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.54% | -854.54 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.24% | +292.82 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.83% | +760.62 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.15% | -411.15 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.01% | -393.48 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.47% | -713.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.66% | +870.09 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -4.01% | -523.86 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -4.39% | -572.62 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -8.65% | -1129.96 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +9.00% | +1174.77 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.86% | -373.43 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.85% | -372.74 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.90% | -770.67 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.56% | +726.01 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.65% | -215.32 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.66% | -216.15 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.51% | -67.14 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.71% | -615.31 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -11.61% | -1516.22 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +11.70% | +1528.02 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.78% | -362.45 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +3.92% | +512.17 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.71% | +223.77 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.34% | +305.07 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.97% | +387.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.24% | +292.82 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.67% | +348.93 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +9.00% | +1174.77 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.22% | +550.37 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.76% | +621.86 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.56% | +726.01 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.83% | +760.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.66% | +870.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.57% | +335.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.65% | +476.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +5.14% | +670.55 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +5.25% | +685.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +5.87% | +766.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +6.23% | +813.12 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +5.00% | +652.35 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.87% | +375.17 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.58% | +597.37 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.98% | +649.77 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.88% | +245.83 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +5.60% | +731.01 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.36% | +830.61 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +6.32% | +824.70 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +11.70% | +1528.02 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +7.90% | +1031.90 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.14% | +17.67 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.72% | +355.77 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.27% | +296.54 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +4.81% | +627.76 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +6.09% | +795.11 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +5.61% | +732.92 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.01% | +392.84 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -8.65% | -1129.96 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.67% | -479.29 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.74% | -618.68 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.90% | -770.67 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.54% | -854.54 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.47% | -713.76 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.53% | -461.12 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -5.06% | -661.22 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -5.31% | -693.41 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -6.93% | -904.76 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.58% | -858.84 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -5.96% | -777.74 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.92% | -772.68 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.61% | -340.39 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -5.69% | -742.85 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -5.91% | -771.00 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.32% | -302.61 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -5.68% | -742.02 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -5.66% | -738.47 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -8.10% | -1057.32 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -11.61% | -1516.22 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -8.35% | -1090.47 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.23% | -30.18 |
A few months ago, most were shocked to read here that we thought the Federal Reserve Bank was forcing this credit crisis in order to eliminate their competition in banking. Since then, that competition has been given a name by the media and that name is the "Shadow Banking System." Formed by a group of Wall Street investment banks who do not belong to the Federal Reserve Banking System (in other words, traditional banks), this shadow competition has come under intense pressure from the credit collapse which we believe was engineered by the Fed itself to expand their dominion over the economy. And, now, the regulators and Congress are gearing up to tighten the thumbscrews on the competition, accomplishing exactly what the Fed intended. The first set of indictments should come this quarter. And, expansion of Fed powers to encompass and conquer the Shadow Banking System is sure to follow.
It wasn't hard to see this coming. The Fed did exactly the same thing in the late 'Twenties. There were a number of holdout banks who refused to join the then newly-formed Federal Reserve system. They paid their dues by going under in the Great Depression, a central bank-induced economic contraction which current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has admitted publically was engineered by the Fed (he promised never to do it again). This time, former Fed Chairman Greenspan's endorsement of Adjustable Rate Mortgages and the financial "innovations" which followed that endorsement set the stage for both the explosion of credit and its inevitable implosion, which we are witnessing now. There is no other reasonable explanation for the Fed to urge consumers to enter into adjustable rate mortgages with fixed rates at historic lows, as they were at the time, then rachet rates higher than necessary. When seemingly good intentions fly in the face of reasonableness, an intelligent observer cannot rationalize the deed as a "mistake" or "bad judgement." It was deliberate and it worked just as it was intended to work. It has driven the Shadow Banking System to its knees and given the Fed the excuse to seize even more power over the financial system than it already had. Machiavelli would have been proud.
The Fed, once the seeds of destruction were planted, did the deed by raising rates too high, keeping them there too long and being far too slow in lowering them to a proper level. According to the Fed's own internal formula for setting rates, they kept rates far too high for far too long. The only members of the Shadow Banking System who have a chance of surviving will be the ones who accept the new powers of the central bank, and that will soon be mandated by Congress.
Of course, as a side-effect, the Fed has shoved the economy into recession. It was worth it from their point of view, no doubt, certainly not for anyone who loses their job due to in-fighting at the top levels of the financial food chain.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Market Awaits Government Employment Report for December Due Out Friday Morning
The market has been fairly quiet so far this week, but that's because it has been waiting for the Employment Report to be released Friday morning. Although the report is heavily revised and the jobs figures only provide a very imprecise view of the jobs market, traders love to use the news as a starter's pistol for taking positions. In reality, the real new jobs picture is running along at low ebb, with large companies shedding jobs and small- and medium-sized companies doing all of the hiring. Manufacturing jobs continue to be shed as productivity gains are due to machines, not people, while service jobs continue to grow. The ADP Employment Report, which was released Thursday morning and showed about 40,000 jobs being created last month in the private sector, gives a truer picture of the employment situation than the BLS Report from the government to be released Friday morning at 8:30am EST, but is discounted by traders because it can't forecast the fantasy jobs figures the government invents. A "hot number" from the government would be bad news for the bond market as it might suggest the Fed won't ease again. The stock market would probably welcome good news on the employment front.
Ahead of the number, stocks stayed in a narrow range all day:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.10% | +12.76 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.08% | +10.98 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.95% | -124.06 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.25% | -32.86 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.01% | +1.35 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.05% | -6.30 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.04% | -4.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.18% | +23.67 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.09% | +11.49 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.27% | +35.51 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.08% | -141.33 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.86% | -242.88 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.28% | +167.23 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.97% | +257.08 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.18% | -153.54 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.10% | -144.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.05% | -266.93 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.80% | +235.25 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.23% | +30.36 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.34% | +43.95 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.57% | +74.69 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.51% | -66.72 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.71% | -92.03 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.81% | -105.09 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.34% | -174.64 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.38% | +179.74 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.09% | +403.53 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.05% | +397.36 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.84% | +109.14 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.37% | -178.86 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.84% | -501.24 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +3.39% | +441.73 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.87% | -113.06 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.22% | +28.89 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.17% | -21.67 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.21% | +27.57 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.53% | +68.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.28% | +167.23 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.09% | +142.38 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.51% | -66.72 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.25% | -32.86 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.18% | +23.67 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.38% | +179.74 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.97% | +257.08 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.80% | +235.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.79% | +103.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.70% | -90.93 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.57% | +204.27 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.05% | +5.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.05% | +397.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.91% | +249.31 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.29% | -168.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.18% | +24.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.15% | +410.37 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.92% | +250.92 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.24% | -31.48 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.17% | -282.84 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +7.35% | +959.37 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +3.39% | +441.73 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.03% | +134.62 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.67% | -87.66 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.65% | -84.75 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.25% | +32.40 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.08% | -10.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.66% | -216.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.86% | -112.46 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.41% | +183.30 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.57% | +74.69 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.95% | -124.06 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.04% | -4.83 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.34% | -174.64 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.86% | -242.88 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.05% | -266.93 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.21% | +27.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.37% | +48.56 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.14% | -148.87 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.29% | +37.69 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -2.85% | -372.36 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.91% | -248.54 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.97% | +257.31 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.10% | -12.72 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.71% | -223.24 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.94% | -252.87 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.33% | +172.89 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.05% | +137.16 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.82% | +237.52 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -6.32% | -824.60 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.84% | -501.24 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.04% | -136.22 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.49% | +63.79 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
Dow Leads Market Lower Wednesday
The venerable Dow Industrials led the market to the downside on Wednesday as the new year got off to an inglorious start for the bulls. But, the flip side of that observation is that the broad market was actually stronger than the generals of the Dow, which is a bullish indication that the market won't stay down for long:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.67% | -220.86 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.45% | -192.14 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.48% | -328.62 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.85% | +378.01 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.39% | -184.56 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.88% | -116.13 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.09% | -277.15 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.73% | +230.14 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.95% | -126.41 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.11% | -147.32 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.20% | -158.79 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.56% | -340.01 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.48% | +196.98 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.80% | +370.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.71% | -226.84 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.00% | -132.79 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.14% | -416.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.49% | +330.06 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.59% | -210.91 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.50% | -199.41 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.19% | -423.80 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.95% | +391.17 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.24% | -164.46 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.64% | -84.33 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.09% | -144.96 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.90% | +251.56 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +7.07% | +937.92 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +7.44% | +986.97 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.91% | +386.07 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.77% | -367.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.54% | -866.88 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +8.14% | +1080.05 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.95% | -259.27 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.82% | +241.81 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.43% | +189.98 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.20% | +159.34 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.52% | +202.19 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.48% | +196.98 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.65% | +218.93 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.95% | +391.17 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.85% | +378.01 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.73% | +230.14 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.90% | +251.56 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.80% | +370.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.49% | +330.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.26% | +299.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.12% | +413.20 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +3.51% | +465.60 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.07% | +540.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.73% | +362.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.16% | +419.27 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.76% | +101.16 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.72% | +360.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.97% | +526.87 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.62% | +612.24 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.06% | +405.32 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.31% | -173.28 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.64% | +85.02 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +8.14% | +1080.05 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.68% | +355.11 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.74% | +363.74 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.90% | +252.49 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.37% | +49.61 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.84% | +111.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.07% | +406.64 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.39% | +52.19 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +2.76% | +365.83 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.19% | -423.80 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.48% | -328.62 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.09% | -277.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.09% | -144.96 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.56% | -340.01 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.14% | -416.31 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.35% | -444.77 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.70% | -358.51 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -3.44% | -455.79 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -3.62% | -480.06 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.64% | -483.02 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -0.75% | -99.14 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.61% | -479.02 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -4.69% | -621.47 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.40% | -584.23 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.55% | -205.09 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -2.46% | -326.17 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.72% | +227.54 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.42% | -188.40 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.54% | -866.88 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.09% | -542.93 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.86% | -246.71 |
Although a cycle low was due to push the market higher, news in the form of the ISM Manufacturing Index (a big disappointment which showed the manufacturing sector barely growing) and the release of the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Meeting Minutes (also a disappointment due to the Fed's perceived lack of ability and skill in righting a foundering economy) dissuaded stock buyers, leaving the market free to fall from relatively light selling pressure. Buyers have been conditioned by this very long trading range market to wait patiently for the knife to not only stop falling and stick in the ground, but to stop quivering as well before stepping up to the plate.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 01, 2008
2007 Goes Out With a Whimper
December's tradtional seasonal strength was sorely lacking in the last week of the year. OEX option traders were leaning to the bearish case on Monday, while QQQ traders remain bullish. Historically, the OEX crowd usually leans the wrong way, while the QQQ crowd tends to be right more often than wrong on overall market direction.
Stocks closed modestly lower Monday as the last of calendar year 2007 tax loss selling appears to have continued right up to the closing bell. With the slate cleared for a new year, the market looks forward to the Employment Report which will be released on Friday morning. Here are the results for the last trading day of the Old Year, 2007:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.76% | -101.05 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.64% | -86.16 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.16% | -155.11 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.62% | +216.54 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.69% | -91.58 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.74% | -98.91 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.46% | -195.64 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.78% | +238.54 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.65% | -86.67 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.52% | -70.10 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.72% | -96.38 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.35% | -179.97 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.71% | +95.18 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.71% | +228.87 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.73% | -98.20 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.84% | -111.73 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.45% | -193.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.54% | +206.49 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.97% | -130.20 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.23% | -164.95 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.83% | -244.65 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.04% | +272.92 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.57% | -76.34 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.12% | -149.37 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.26% | -302.32 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.50% | +200.38 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.58% | -211.63 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.72% | -229.31 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.65% | -86.96 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.48% | -63.57 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.05% | -139.71 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.32% | +42.91 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.53% |