Market Clues
News from Market Clues
 Add Market Clues Blog to My Yahoo!Links: MyClues Home Page Thermopower, a breakthrough alternative energy, carbon-free and completely clean RSS Feed Market Clues Subscription Information Page Time & Cycles TFNN - Tom O'Brien T Theory - Terry Laundry Elliott Wave International's Market Report My Yahoo! Google News "The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." ---John Maynard Keynes "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ---Thomas Jefferson "I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt." ---Thomas Jefferson
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
|
|
| Sign up now for a 3-month free trial to Market Clues! Just click the PayPal button below to start your subscription with a three-month free trial period. |
Monday, March 31, 2008
Fed Gets a Pat on the Back by Administration
The First Quarter of 2008 came to an end Monday. And, the Bush Administration proposed putting the Federal Reserve in charge of the markets. One door closes and another falls off its hinges. :)
As several observers noted, "That's like putting the fox in charge of the henhouse."
It won't happen. The whole scheme appears to be a transparent attempt to consolidate all markets under the Fed and is doomed to fail. The lame duck Republicans should simply admit that "resistance is useless" against a Democrat-controlled Congress and drop the plan before we waste any more time discussing it. It was a "dead on arrival" type of scheme.
Of course, one should never take the news at face value, but look instead at how the market reacts to the news. According to Monday's very dull and listless trading, the market decided it was an irrelevant piece of a political dog-and-pony show that will never make it through Congress.
The geomagnetic field was also quiet Monday after a rough week last week. Although the Fed study found that the effects of geomagnetic storms lasted up to a week after the storm ended (which it did last Thursday), this one seems to have worn off after a quiet weekend.
The market yawned its way through a sleepy Monday after a quarter which came in like a lion and went out like a lamb:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.38% | +46.49 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.20% | +24.98 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.15% | +18.89 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.12% | +15.03 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.40% | +49.39 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.25% | +30.64 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.56% | +68.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.34% | -41.65 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.40% | +49.03 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.31% | +38.04 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.73% | +88.76 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.77% | +215.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.21% | -25.68 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.44% | -53.47 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.80% | +97.37 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.15% | +17.91 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.04% | -5.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.12% | -14.79 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.70% | +85.67 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.53% | +64.61 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.42% | +50.83 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.48% | -58.58 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.91% | +111.18 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.03% | +125.42 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.80% | +219.37 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.19% | -145.66 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.85% | -226.16 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.40% | -293.58 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.81% | -343.49 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.60% | -195.45 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +2.90% | +354.30 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.19% | -389.89 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.37% | +167.79 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.35% | +287.48 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.49% | -303.87 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.77% | +93.47 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.36% | +43.47 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.17% | +21.36 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.16% | -19.01 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.27% | +32.60 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.02% | +2.90 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.68% | -82.62 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.38% | -45.97 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.34% | -41.88 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.99% | -121.21 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.21% | -25.68 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.59% | -72.30 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.48% | -58.58 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.12% | +15.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.34% | -41.65 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.19% | -145.66 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.44% | -53.47 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.12% | -14.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.47% | -301.96 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.64% | -77.59 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.55% | -189.90 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.87% | -106.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.70% | -207.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.41% | +50.04 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.66% | +81.03 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.89% | -108.64 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.63% | -76.66 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.86% | -227.33 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.57% | +191.44 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.63% | -199.37 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -0.95% | -115.69 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.94% | -114.49 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.49% | -303.87 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.47% | -179.73 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.24% | -273.78 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.60% | -72.72 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.47% | -57.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.71% | -86.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.82% | -100.09 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.01% | +123.37 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.91% | +233.07 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.42% | +50.83 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.15% | +18.89 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.56% | +68.77 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.80% | +219.37 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.77% | +215.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.04% | -5.18 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.93% | +113.54 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.00% | +122.06 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.68% | +82.58 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.45% | +176.63 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.99% | +121.36 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.80% | +98.19 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -0.39% | -47.60 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.60% | +72.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.82% | +344.76 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.23% | +150.10 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.72% | -88.44 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.17% | +142.70 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.21% | +147.55 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.09% | +133.20 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.35% | +287.48 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.04% | +126.91 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.83% | +101.69 |
Back in bubble-land, the commodity markets continued to gyrate with crazy volatility. Before this is all over, there will be quite a few traders who will rue the day they ever heard of commodities.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Are Pandering Politicians Spooking Markets?
Stocks failed to follow through on the cycle low which occured on Thursday and continued to decline on Friday. While that might be considered bearish (the failure to respond to a bullish cycle), the real explanation has more to do with psychology than fundamentals.
While pandering politicians continued to turn off prospective voters (this campaign started early enough, and has now exposed all of the candidates as liars to various degrees, that they may have to pay disgusted voters to vote this Fall for any one of the sorry lot), that wasn't the real reason stocks declined last week.
Last week, the sun unleashed powerful bursts of charged particles called CMEs (no relation to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME stands for "Coronal Mass Ejection"). These clouds of powerful particles rushed by Earth, missing our planet by a nice margin of safety. You would certainly have known it had they hit our planet, however. Your cell phones and power would have gone on the blink, most likely, had any of the clouds hit the Earth. As it was, we simply got a glancing blow from the storms.
That glancing blow, though, turns out to have been enough to unnerve traders and cause them to continue selling. After two weeks' worth of gains which sent the market near the top of the recent trading range, who can blame them for taking profits? In any case, most did not even realize they were responding to the sun's input into their sell decisions. Most probably thought that banking profits was a great idea. And, the act of selling made them feel much better, so who can argue with that? As the brokers say, "No one ever went broke taking a profit." Of course, that self-serving advice is also good for the brokerage bottom line.
If the month of March had closed Friday, it will have been pretty much flat:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.41% | -49.99 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.67% | -82.72 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.33% | -163.32 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.32% | -161.71 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.20% | -147.53 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.69% | -207.16 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.68% | -451.18 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.09% | +11.42 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.24% | -274.19 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.38% | -292.31 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.48% | -58.35 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.36% | -289.62 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.70% | -86.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.88% | -107.95 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.53% | -64.89 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.97% | -119.35 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.79% | -219.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.97% | -241.60 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.05% | +128.85 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.26% | +154.22 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.40% | +171.31 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.96% | -607.96 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.03% | -249.37 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.15% | -263.61 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.47% | -671.14 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.98% | +365.78 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -6.79% | -832.80 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -7.65% | -938.75 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -7.61% | -932.91 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -4.47% | -548.40 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +9.44% | +1157.87 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -9.02% | -1106.49 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.52% | -309.08 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.43% | -175.50 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.09% | -256.94 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.59% | -440.74 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.40% | +171.83 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.85% | +104.07 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.09% | -10.73 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.28% | -156.97 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.04% | +4.37 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.11% | -136.73 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.28% | +34.72 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.74% | +90.25 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.05% | +128.66 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.70% | -86.43 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.55% | -67.58 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.96% | -607.96 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.32% | -161.71 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.09% | +11.42 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.98% | +365.78 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.88% | -107.95 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.97% | -241.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.75% | +214.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.46% | -56.54 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.72% | +210.65 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.21% | +393.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.46% | -424.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -2.58% | -316.74 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.13% | -15.63 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -4.16% | -510.89 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.33% | +39.90 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.03% | +3.09 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +6.37% | +781.13 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.92% | -480.85 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +5.57% | +682.76 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -10.61% | -1301.96 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.09% | -256.94 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.01% | +124.37 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.48% | +59.19 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.64% | +323.72 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.33% | -40.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.33% | -163.07 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +6.51% | +798.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.73% | -212.65 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.07% | +376.90 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.40% | +171.31 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.33% | -163.32 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.68% | -451.18 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.47% | -671.14 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.36% | -289.62 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.79% | -219.77 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -4.52% | -554.19 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.88% | -352.84 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -5.49% | -672.91 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -6.06% | -743.01 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.19% | +145.43 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -4.31% | -528.79 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -14.67% | -1799.70 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.92% | +358.73 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -5.05% | -619.65 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -8.41% | -1031.47 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -7.44% | -912.43 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.36% | +289.52 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -10.67% | -1308.55 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +5.25% | +643.48 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.43% | -175.50 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.72% | -210.92 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.26% | -277.23 |
The shifts in leadership from the table above shows that tech was generally a winner, while commodities were losers. That's certainly not the mainstream opinion, but those are the facts. The biggest winner, not surprisingly, was the double short Gold ETF with an advance equivalent to 1158 Dow Industrials' points. The Ultrashort Oil and Gas ETF only gained about half that amount (683 Dow points). Emerging markets were big gainers, though, but only if you were short them (798 points). Strangely enough, real estate was a winner for the month (643 points). Health care was a good sector, but only on the short side (781 points).
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Commodities Dancing To An Interest Rate Drumbeat?
A year ago, anyone who made a case for commodities to move higher was standing on firm fundamental ground. The Asian growth engine was running strong, echoed by strong economies around the world. However, today, even China's growth rate is slipping and the case for higher commodity prices based upon fundamentals depends to a large extent on faith that a recovery is in sight.
With deteriorating economic news, commodity prices have accelerated higher, at least until the Fed decided not to raise short term rates by a full percentage point a couple of weeks ago. A good case can be made that the commodity bull market was running on the fumes of lower interest rate speculations. In fact, that's exactly the case James Hamilton, an adviser to the Fed for twenty years, makes in Commodity Prices Now Driven By Interest Rates. The Fed's rapid lowering of rates had sparked the commodity bubble to unsustainable heights (at least, unsustainable in the short run). A simple matter of an omitted ¼% cut in rates caused a minor collapse in prices.
The Fed was forced, to some extent, to lower rates due to the fact that the markets had already factored the cut into them. But, according to the Fed's own model, interest rates are too low right now. And, the problems in the banking system, something we have called the "Bankers' Panic of 2008," are not that there isn't enough money available. The problems resolve around fears that counterparties are insolvent. Lowering rates may help in the long run, but they only exacerbate the commodity bubble in the short run.
Hamilton had urged even more restraint for the Fed at its March 18 meeting. As he points out,
"The Fed would like to stimulate more, but it also has to be realistic about what it is capable of accomplishing through manipulation of the fed funds target. Bernanke also needs to be mindful that one of his most valuable assets, if he hopes to be able to accomplish anything through adjustments of the fed funds rate, is the confidence on the part of the public in the Fed's long-run inflation-fighting resolve."
That's why it's very likely that the Fed is finished lowering rates as of the last meeting. And, if the Fed hints that it may take back some of those cuts due to the economy recovering? Look out below in the commodity pits.
Stocks were weak Thursday as the cycle low hit right on schedule:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.97% | -120.40 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.47% | -58.23 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.12% | -139.54 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.02% | +127.33 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.08% | -133.94 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.32% | -39.18 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.71% | -88.48 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.68% | +84.76 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.72% | -90.05 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.20% | -24.52 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.74% | -216.17 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.60% | -447.41 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.56% | +317.58 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.81% | +349.69 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.38% | -171.63 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.79% | -98.11 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.09% | -259.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.70% | +211.22 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.92% | -238.71 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.21% | -275.14 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.97% | -244.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.94% | +240.48 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.18% | -146.93 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.80% | -99.97 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.22% | -152.08 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.33% | +164.82 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.27% | -33.34 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.68% | -208.71 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.46% | -181.56 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.36% | -45.03 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.63% | +77.92 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.98% | -121.45 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.44% | -178.62 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.55% | -565.13 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.26% | +653.83 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.80% | -223.97 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.70% | -87.34 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.13% | -16.33 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.04% | +4.84 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.61% | -75.72 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +13.30 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.20% | +148.96 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.81% | +100.82 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.59% | +73.24 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.12% | +139.30 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.56% | +317.58 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.35% | +167.14 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.94% | +240.48 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.02% | +127.33 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.68% | +84.76 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.33% | +164.82 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.81% | +349.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.70% | +211.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.91% | -112.99 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.60% | +322.80 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.31% | +38.44 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.78% | +96.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.46% | +305.78 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +2.35% | +292.36 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.02% | +250.67 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.49% | +61.48 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.12% | +263.25 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.72% | +461.60 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.86% | -106.62 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.17% | +145.26 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.89% | +110.28 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.52% | +188.75 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.26% | +653.83 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.46% | +554.06 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.21% | -150.33 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.66% | +82.45 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.38% | -47.42 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.41% | +50.80 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.02% | +3.02 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.49% | +60.47 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.88% | -233.70 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.97% | -244.67 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.12% | -139.54 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.71% | -88.48 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.22% | -152.08 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.60% | -447.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.09% | -259.39 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -2.01% | -250.07 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.03% | -251.96 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12422.86 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.87% | -232.03 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -2.84% | -353.40 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -2.45% | -304.83 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.09% | -259.88 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -100.00% | -12422.86 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.45% | -304.18 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.58% | -445.08 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.05% | +6.67 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.90% | -235.82 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.06% | -132.02 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.97% | -245.19 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -4.55% | -565.13 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -4.47% | -554.97 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.02% | +127.05 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Market Retraces After a Solid Week
Our Trading Page indicators, which turned bearish on Tuesday, were proven right on the mark as the stock market pulled back on Wednesday.
Option traders once again proved their ability to guess wrong on market direction. Over the past couple of weeks of uptrend, a majority of money has gone into put purchases. On Wednesday, that changed as the crowd suddenly decided to pour twice as much money into calls instead. And, the call buying continued throughout the day, which is a warning that the market could be in a precarious position near term.
Every so often option traders are right. But, most of the time they are wrong. And, when they are buying calls on dips, you have to be extra cautious. That's the kind of action we saw after the first decline off the March 24, 2000, top. It was a warning that the crowd had gotten far too bullish. But, after just one day of being overly-bullish, it may be too early to say that this kind of sentiment is a strong indicator.
After over a week of trending higher, stocks pulled back in a mild correction on Wednesday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.88% | -109.74 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.10% | -138.24 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.97% | -247.39 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.13% | +266.99 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.16% | -144.96 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.21% | -151.54 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.45% | -306.60 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.49% | +311.84 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.61% | -76.69 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.94% | -117.91 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.45% | -55.95 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.44% | -54.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.55% | -69.48 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.33% | +166.14 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.46% | -57.22 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.83% | -103.52 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.36% | -170.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.53% | +192.32 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.36% | -170.83 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.29% | -36.34 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.84% | -230.35 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.91% | +239.34 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.82% | -102.73 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.22% | -153.38 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.67% | -334.58 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.34% | +293.17 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.96% | +120.72 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.18% | +273.04 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.04% | +256.03 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.15% | +144.61 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -2.37% | -297.37 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +2.42% | +303.25 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.41% | -176.95 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.34% | -293.30 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.63% | +329.52 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.18% | -398.66 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.42% | -52.38 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.08% | +9.62 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.29% | -36.56 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.12% | +15.54 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.21% | +26.88 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.25% | +156.32 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.00% | +124.88 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.26% | +157.30 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.88% | +110.26 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.55% | -69.48 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.32% | +40.66 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.91% | +239.34 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.13% | +266.99 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.49% | +311.84 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.34% | +293.17 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.33% | +166.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.53% | +192.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.55% | +319.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.56% | +194.95 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.39% | +299.90 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.75% | +219.52 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +1.65% | +207.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.75% | +94.34 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.67% | -209.90 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.55% | +194.52 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.40% | +426.06 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +6.47% | +811.12 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.29% | +161.87 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.71% | +214.12 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -4.01% | -502.56 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +4.82% | +604.23 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.63% | +329.52 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.49% | +563.07 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.16% | -145.89 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.68% | +85.35 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.03% | +3.19 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.09% | -11.70 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +2.16% | +270.42 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.01% | +126.33 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +4.15% | +519.50 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.84% | -230.35 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.97% | -247.39 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.45% | -306.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.67% | -334.58 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.44% | -54.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.36% | -170.41 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.74% | -217.85 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.39% | -174.18 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.76% | -94.84 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.01% | -252.30 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.03% | -128.59 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.76% | -95.06 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.39% | +174.64 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.40% | -175.26 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.55% | -445.25 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -6.47% | -810.23 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.69% | -86.91 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.92% | -240.63 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +4.04% | +506.15 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -6.20% | -776.92 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.34% | -293.30 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -2.27% | -284.11 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.25% | +156.90 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
The New Year Ahead
Until sometime in the 16th century, March 25th was the first day of the new year and the beginning of a week of celebration ending on April 1st. That's the origin of April Fool's, since after the changeover to a January 1st start to the year, those who still celebrated the new year from March 25-April 1 were subject to "April Fool" pranks. So, Happy New Year to all the April fools still out there!
Pessimistic People
Some of us could use a little lightening up.
Americans are as pessimistic today as they were at the depths of the last recession. That startling message kept the markets under pressure on Tuesday at chart resistance points, keeping stocks from going up. The problem is that the public is having a hard time deciding whether to spend or save. Perhaps they should learn a lesson in saving. As Gerard Jackson of BrookesNews.com says,
"Although entrepreneurship is what drives an economy it is savings that fuel it. Without savings an economy will eventually regress and living standards will fall. So are Americans putting enough away to satisfy their future material aspirations? I honestly don't know. However, the lesson that Asians understand and many Americans now need to relearn is that savings and not consumption underpin living standards. And this is why the Democrats' proposed tax increase could sink the US economy."
This year's election gives Americans a choice between a rock and a hard place: the Republican candidate promises a return to the days of Herbert Hoover-style economic depression, while the Democrats offer massive tax increases. It's no wonder Americans are depressed about the future!
This may explain why the market could not move on Tuesday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.13% | -16.04 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.11% | -14.03 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.75% | -93.66 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.04% | -4.61 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.13% | +15.90 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.01% | +1.86 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.23% | -29.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.55% | -69.00 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.86% | +108.52 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.85% | +106.70 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.56% | +70.17 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.38% | -47.69 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.78% | -97.66 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.48% | -185.42 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.57% | +71.40 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.33% | +41.24 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.73% | +90.99 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.94% | -117.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.37% | +46.96 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.56% | +70.37 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.69% | +86.01 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.35% | -168.87 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.00% | +126.05 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.66% | +82.87 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.77% | +221.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -221.81 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +2.88% | +361.42 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.70% | +589.54 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.30% | +540.13 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.92% | +366.29 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -4.98% | -625.15 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +6.34% | +796.12 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.06% | +7.83 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.58% | +72.59 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.75% | -220.21 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.45% | -55.95 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.42% | +52.67 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.35% | +44.18 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.19% | +23.22 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.45% | +56.49 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.07% | +8.98 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.99% | -123.98 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.30% | -38.20 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.20% | -24.92 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.53% | -192.19 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.78% | -97.66 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.63% | -79.30 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.35% | -168.87 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.04% | -4.61 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.55% | -69.00 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -221.81 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.48% | -185.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.94% | -117.63 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.63% | -79.50 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -3.02% | -378.62 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.97% | -247.32 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.93% | -368.07 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.35% | -169.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.92% | -240.87 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -5.85% | -733.68 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.14% | -143.04 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.07% | -8.50 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.52% | +65.41 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.78% | -97.42 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.40% | -176.16 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.33% | -291.83 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.49% | -187.49 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.75% | -220.21 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.20% | -401.45 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.74% | -93.35 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.73% | -217.09 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.73% | -216.60 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.93% | -368.24 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.90% | -364.15 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.81% | -352.32 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -9.30% | -1166.61 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.69% | +86.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.75% | -93.66 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.23% | -29.00 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.77% | +221.50 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.38% | -47.69 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.73% | +90.99 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.66% | -82.20 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.30% | +163.75 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.23% | -154.48 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.02% | +253.03 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.06% | +133.14 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.02% | -2.50 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.35% | -169.45 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.21% | +26.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.08% | +10.50 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.71% | -88.68 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.23% | +29.07 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.40% | +175.83 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -3.16% | -396.04 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.86% | +233.05 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.58% | +72.59 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.39% | +48.65 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.74% | -92.41 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, March 24, 2008
Market Rallies As Nervous Bears Buy
The stock market showed considerable strength Monday as it rallied due to panicking bears buying to cut losses. Although that kind of buying can't last and we'll have a retracement before long, this show of strength is making the remaining bears who are still short very nervous.
However, many bears are using the 55-day moving average (1360) in the S&P 500 Index, as a key marker for selling the market. In fact, the index was able to just reach the 1360 level intraday and closed 10 points below that key level, showing that the forces of darkness were active at that price. The market likely needs to pull back and build up a good oversold level before it can push through that level with strength.
Sentiment remains incredibly bearish. Some say this is indicative of just how bad things are in the real economy, but we think it's more a case of the media whipping the public into a bearish frame of mind. This causes the public to build a big short position, indicated by the very heavy volume in the inverse and double inverse ETFs which have recently gotten so popular with the public. Several are shown in the table below, in fact. When the market rises, those shares plunge in price, forcing the holders to sell, which causes short-covering, which cause the market to rise some more, and so on. With so many of those shares being held by the casual trading public, the fuel for a huge conflagration to send the market soaring is building.
And, when the bears are loudly saying, "A Crash is Ahead," you realize that they've gone confidently out on a tree limb which is destined to crack under their own weight.
Monday's move, though, was just a mild preview of what the bears have to look forward to; namely, some heavy short-covering:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.52% | +187.32 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.68% | +207.73 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.39% | +419.03 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.39% | -418.77 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.50% | +185.67 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.99% | +246.01 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.98% | +491.93 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.92% | -484.08 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.63% | +201.43 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.06% | +130.85 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.67% | +330.62 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.19% | +888.71 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.96% | -365.37 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.77% | -713.03 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.71% | +335.42 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +3.72% | +459.79 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +7.63% | +943.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.59% | -937.73 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +3.40% | +419.95 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +3.46% | +427.44 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +7.80% | +964.50 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -7.72% | -954.14 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.29% | +283.08 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +3.06% | +378.61 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +6.02% | +744.29 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.38% | -788.51 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +2.54% | +314.04 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.24% | -152.92 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.59% | -196.99 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.21% | +26.12 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.58% | -71.50 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.45% | +55.09 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.71% | +458.61 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.67% | +700.93 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.49% | -678.99 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.52% | +63.92 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.93% | -239.14 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -1.76% | -217.76 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.73% | -90.84 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.19% | -23.64 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.42% | -51.38 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -4.18% | -516.84 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.33% | -164.17 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.77% | -218.88 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.43% | -300.40 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.96% | -365.37 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -3.53% | -436.75 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -7.72% | -954.14 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.39% | -418.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.92% | -484.08 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.38% | -788.51 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.77% | -713.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.59% | -937.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.33% | -287.54 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -4.18% | -516.92 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.59% | -567.22 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -4.94% | -610.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -5.11% | -631.91 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -6.95% | -859.09 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -5.59% | -690.83 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.70% | -333.95 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.50% | -680.29 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.92% | -361.39 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.64% | -202.28 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -4.01% | -495.79 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.16% | -266.47 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -4.87% | -602.38 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.49% | -678.99 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -5.46% | -675.35 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.78% | +96.62 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -3.69% | -455.54 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -2.42% | -298.74 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -4.53% | -560.24 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -7.87% | -972.28 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -4.69% | -579.92 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.91% | -235.89 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +7.80% | +964.50 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.39% | +419.03 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.98% | +491.93 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +6.02% | +744.29 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.19% | +888.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +7.63% | +943.24 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.44% | +301.62 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +3.30% | +407.81 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +4.45% | +550.65 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +6.16% | +762.02 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +4.35% | +538.12 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +8.23% | +1017.21 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +5.93% | +732.76 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.74% | +338.90 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +5.68% | +702.22 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.35% | +290.59 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.94% | +240.31 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +4.08% | +504.78 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.78% | +343.69 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.60% | +568.93 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.67% | +700.93 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +5.63% | +695.54 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.59% | -73.52 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, March 23, 2008
That Was The Week That Was ... And It Was Great!
Last week was probably one of the most exciting weeks the markets have seen in many years. The stock market tested long term support trendlines successfully and soared, Our forecast for a bursting of the commodity bubble (and, most especially, the current "tulip mania" called the oil market) started looking very prescient by the middle of the week as commodities tumbled sharply lower. The week was volatile in all markets, but that's exactly what you expect to see as another major bubble pops, this time the commodity bubble. Now, maybe we can get back to the business of starting a new uptrend in some of the markets which have been trending lower, while bear markets maul the commodity, currency and bond markets. Certainly, the coming 90% decline in the price of oil will do a lot to really help out on the inflation front and in the average citizen's bottom line.
Stock bears got no satisfaction last week as their last chance at salvation was backstopped by the Federal Reserve. While some of the bears have arguments which make sense on the surface, underneath they are hollow and empty arguments. They presuppose that human progress can be contained within a five-wave move to the upside which ends that progress for a very long time. Instead, that five-wave move is really the first step in a journey of a thousand miles. They are always saying, "Wait a year and you'll see, I'll be proven right!" Well, we've been waiting for the newest "Great Depression" for a very long time now and, guess what? It's not going to happen.
And, you ask, "Why are you so certain it's not going to happen?" Our answer is that the human spirit cannot be held down by the foolishness of the greedy and the ignorant (qualities which describe the bear camp pretty accurately). Innovation will always win over stupidity. We will solve all of the major problems we are facing, whether they are the deleveraging of the financial system, the climate change issues which have confronted us, and the pollution problems which come with a rapidly-expanding and energy-hungry technological civilization. Ingenuity and entreprenurial efforts will be rewarded in the end and, although the doomsayers will continue to walk around with placards on their chests proclaiming the end of the world is near, they will suffer in their own private hells until they leave this mortal coil, just as they always have throughout history. Still, the fearful among us will be drawn to their apocalyptical words and side with them, learning too late that they have been the latest pawns in the bears' acrid haze of delusional thinking.
That was the week that was, for sure:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.77% | +215.58 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.39% | +168.95 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.11% | +377.94 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.95% | -480.04 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.03% | +124.74 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.35% | +42.42 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.20% | +145.82 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.38% | -289.27 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.24% | -150.81 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.91% | -110.91 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.21% | +25.87 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.53% | -63.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.29% | -34.69 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.69% | -83.97 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.24% | +29.30 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.59% | -71.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.07% | -130.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.92% | -111.30 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.02% | -2.01 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.12% | +14.11 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.63% | -76.69 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.63% | -76.10 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.73% | -88.65 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.25% | -152.27 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.71% | -328.83 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.50% | +181.75 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -12.09% | -1468.20 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -14.71% | -1786.17 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -14.27% | -1733.55 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -8.57% | -1041.17 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +19.02% | +2309.99 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -16.39% | -1991.10 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.64% | -321.11 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.78% | -216.26 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.07% | -8.05 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +6.94% | +843.35 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +3.56% | +432.30 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +1.94% | +235.50 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +1.27% | +154.62 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +1.54% | +187.47 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.15% | +18.78 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.11% | +13.43 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -2.01% | -244.61 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.48% | -179.56 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.39% | +47.85 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.29% | -34.69 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.27% | -33.15 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.63% | -76.10 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.95% | -480.04 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.38% | -289.27 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.50% | +181.75 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.69% | -83.97 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.92% | -111.30 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -3.83% | -465.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.08% | -9.40 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.68% | +82.48 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.69% | +205.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -2.52% | -306.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.62% | +75.56 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +14.35% | +1743.29 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.35% | -407.25 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.04% | -612.58 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -14.45% | -1754.58 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.67% | -81.89 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.95% | -358.77 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +10.98% | +1333.38 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -10.66% | -1294.44 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.07% | -8.05 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.43% | -52.25 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +3.06% | +371.38 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +4.79% | +582.05 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +3.51% | +426.60 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +6.37% | +774.22 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +9.58% | +1163.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.16% | +383.79 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +12.08% | +1467.48 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.63% | -76.69 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.11% | +377.94 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.20% | +145.82 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.71% | -328.83 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.53% | -63.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.07% | -130.24 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.27% | +275.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.44% | -53.62 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.14% | -137.86 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -4.31% | -522.97 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.82% | +220.95 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.49% | -180.89 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -14.56% | -1767.97 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.82% | +342.38 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +3.98% | +482.93 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +12.32% | +1496.63 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.60% | -72.39 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.99% | +241.51 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -11.92% | -1447.57 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +14.51% | +1762.42 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.78% | -216.26 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.43% | -51.68 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -3.00% | -364.73 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
The Mouse Ran Down!
If you have been trading the stock market lately, you are probably thinking that this market is simply playing out the old nursery rhyme:
Hickory Dickory Dock
Three mice ran up the clock
The clock struck one
The other two escaped with minor injuries
Hickory Dickory Dock,
An elephant ran up the clock.
The clock is currently being repaired.
Hickory dickory dock,
Two mice ran up the clock,
The clock struck one and the other one ducked.
No, not that one: this one!
But, if the stock market's manic trips from the bottom of the trading range to the top and down again are making you feel like the mouse the clock struck, don't feel all alone. The market is making everyone feel a little "clocked" these days.
But, the stock market's rangebound trade is nothing compared to the crash in the commodity markets. Considered a "safe refuge" by some ("Everyone knows China is buying everything, right?"), the commodity markets have been crumbling. For instance, a market we called "The Canary in the Mineshaft" (Sugar) has plunged to lose virtually all of its gains this year in the last 2½ weeks. Even oil has plunged this week, threatening to break the $100 mark from above, while Gold has fallen to the middle $900 range.
Call it "long liquidation" or whatever term you can, it's time for the bulls to squeeze through the exit door and some are getting trampled. Even as the stock market gyrates within a relatively modest range and bonds push toward their old highs in a flight-to-quality bid, the US Dollar is showing some strength. Bob Prechter says "it's all one market" and it's something we agree with him on. Everything is revolving around the fluctuations in the US Dollar. And it appears that we are undergoing the kind of volatile transition that takes place at a major inflection point in the markets. Once we emerge from this inflection point, trends will have reversed course.
On Wednesday, though, the mouse ran down the clock:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.36% | -293.00 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.24% | -277.39 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.58% | -567.53 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.34% | +538.14 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.37% | -293.63 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.53% | -313.41 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.86% | -602.82 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.98% | +616.91 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -3.14% | -388.83 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -3.15% | -390.90 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.58% | -320.29 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.12% | -510.62 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.43% | +300.64 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.39% | +544.31 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.34% | -290.22 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.57% | -318.69 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.32% | -659.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.20% | +644.58 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.41% | -298.65 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.47% | -306.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.19% | -643.78 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.29% | +655.30 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.48% | -307.95 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.47% | -306.17 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.17% | -641.17 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.16% | +762.77 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -5.11% | -633.47 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -6.63% | -821.11 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -6.01% | -745.12 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -3.59% | -444.34 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +6.35% | +787.24 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -6.19% | -767.05 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.29% | -532.24 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.56% | -813.13 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +7.65% | +947.94 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.55% | -192.45 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.66% | +205.33 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.86% | +106.95 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.30% | +37.39 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.43% | +53.83 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +13.25 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.57% | +318.78 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.36% | +292.17 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.57% | +318.00 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.20% | +273.01 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.43% | +300.64 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.17% | +269.07 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.29% | +655.30 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.34% | +538.14 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.98% | +616.91 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.16% | +762.77 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.39% | +544.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.20% | +644.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +5.58% | +691.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +4.15% | +513.74 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +4.45% | +551.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +5.73% | +710.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.41% | +545.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.31% | +410.73 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +12.03% | +1491.38 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.83% | +103.26 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.26% | +279.63 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.07% | +380.43 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.88% | +108.62 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +4.10% | +508.58 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +9.29% | +1150.70 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.88% | +232.47 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +7.65% | +947.94 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +5.32% | +659.71 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +4.48% | +555.54 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +6.03% | +746.70 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +3.34% | +414.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +7.01% | +869.17 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +11.59% | +1436.77 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +5.54% | +686.81 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +12.97% | +1607.90 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.19% | -643.78 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.58% | -567.53 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.86% | -602.82 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.17% | -641.17 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.12% | -510.62 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.32% | -659.89 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -4.00% | -495.09 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.49% | -432.79 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -3.20% | -396.57 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -4.72% | -584.65 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -3.20% | -396.41 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -4.77% | -591.64 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -12.42% | -1539.61 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.47% | -58.25 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.97% | -119.65 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.18% | -394.44 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.66% | -81.32 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -4.33% | -536.86 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -9.92% | -1229.04 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.07% | -256.80 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -6.56% | -813.13 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -5.58% | -691.34 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -3.67% | -455.40 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
A Very Bad Week for the Bears
Although the Fed came in with less of a rate cut than the market expected, it didn't faze the bulls a bit. They took the bears to the woodshed for a thrashing for the second time in a week and taught them a lesson about getting in front of a freight train. Yes, it was a short-covering rally almost identical to last Tuesday's. This might get to be a habit.
After last week's disappointment for Bear (Stearns) shareholders, who lost almost all of their investment in the Fed's weekend raid on the bank, the market has not been able to break the January lows, something most of the hapless bears thought was a foregone conclusion. Apparently, the credit market isn't going down the drain soon enough for those dour denizens of dark corners.
While there are some who don't agree with the Fed's actions, it is actually a very healthy move to keep the credit market afloat. In fact, this is exactly what the government did during the 'Eighties in Texas. When oil prices dropped to $8/bbl from near $50 just a few years before, Texas real estate took it on the chin and put savings and loans in a credit squeeze. But, liquidity wasn't the problem at the time. Those savings and loans were actually bankrupt. Once the Feds realized this, they swooped in, shut down those banks and sold their assets to the highest bidder.
History repeats now, and on a larger scale. The Feds are in the process of triaging the banking system. For those who are walking dead, like Bear, they are simply taking over and selling them off to competitors (leaving shareholders with a miniscule portion of their investment as a souvenir). For those which can be saved, they are providing a loan facility to get the markets moving. The only real question the market faces is how many are in the walking dead category? The loan facility will, in time, save those banks.
In any case, the market has realized that the end of the crisis is in sight. On Tuesday, they put an exclamation point on that conclusion:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +3.51% | +420.41 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +3.41% | +408.71 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +6.77% | +810.11 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -6.66% | -796.82 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +4.14% | +495.17 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +4.22% | +505.07 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +8.25% | +987.92 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -8.31% | -994.67 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +3.97% | +475.34 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +3.47% | +415.15 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +4.53% | +542.05 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.84% | +938.80 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -4.17% | -499.78 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -8.25% | -988.12 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +4.60% | +550.32 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +4.60% | +550.22 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +9.19% | +1099.78 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -9.49% | -1136.23 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +4.49% | +537.66 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +4.46% | +533.96 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +8.96% | +1072.99 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -8.92% | -1068.08 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +4.03% | +481.90 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +4.04% | +483.34 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +7.29% | +872.49 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -8.51% | -1018.91 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.25% | +149.56 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -4.63% | -553.85 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -4.69% | -561.91 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.69% | -322.33 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +7.02% | +840.16 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -5.48% | -656.61 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.82% | +457.83 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +6.72% | +804.26 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.77% | -811.06 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +7.38% | +883.68 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.39% | -46.27 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.68% | -81.83 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.23% | -27.90 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.18% | -21.92 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.35% | -42.50 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -4.22% | -505.64 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -3.38% | -404.51 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -4.24% | -507.52 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -3.77% | -451.59 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -4.17% | -499.78 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -4.44% | -531.08 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -8.92% | -1068.08 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -6.66% | -796.82 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -8.31% | -994.67 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -8.51% | -1018.91 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -8.25% | -988.12 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -9.49% | -1136.23 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -8.65% | -1035.74 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -6.75% | -807.76 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -6.26% | -749.50 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -8.33% | -997.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -8.61% | -1031.40 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -8.43% | -1009.80 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -6.37% | -762.14 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -5.37% | -643.45 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -7.41% | -886.83 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -15.06% | -1803.25 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -3.89% | -465.57 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -7.99% | -957.07 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -6.74% | -806.69 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -9.61% | -1150.38 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.77% | -811.06 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -9.25% | -1107.04 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -3.89% | -466.13 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -5.17% | -619.38 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -3.17% | -379.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -6.01% | -719.23 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -10.29% | -1232.21 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -5.55% | -664.47 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -8.91% | -1066.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +8.96% | +1072.99 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +6.77% | +810.11 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +8.25% | +987.92 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +7.29% | +872.49 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.84% | +938.80 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +9.19% | +1099.78 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +7.15% | +855.92 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +6.49% | +777.51 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +7.36% | +881.39 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +7.73% | +925.16 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +7.59% | +909.12 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +9.11% | +1090.67 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +6.93% | +829.35 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +5.14% | +615.38 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +6.96% | +833.08 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +15.45% | +1849.48 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +4.10% | +490.70 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +6.43% | +769.30 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +7.38% | +884.05 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +10.78% | +1290.92 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +6.72% | +804.26 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +7.57% | +905.84 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.65% | +317.40 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, March 17, 2008
Crash Dead Ahead?
No, not stocks. Oil. Is a crash in oil dead ahead? It certainly seems likely that it is.
First, a word about crashes. You do not have to sell top tick to profit from a crash. In fact, trying to sell top tick in a bubble (which the oil market is in) can be deadly to your account. The time to sell a bubble short is after the first leg down and following the first oversold and failed rally back.
A good example is the Crash of 1987 in stocks. The market registered top tick on 25 August 1987 and dropped into late September. It then rallied back to within a few dozen points of its all-time high in early October. From that high, it quickly crashed, losing 36% in a matter of weeks. The lesson there is that those who had repeatedly tried to sell "the top" in mid-1987 were faced with sadly-depleted funds by the time the real McCoy showed up in October.
In the Oil market, prices have recently hit the $110 mark, so it's too early to sell Oil short. But, it's not too early to look forward to what is likely to be the biggest commodity crash of the century. With almost universal bullishness, traders lick their chops to buy dips, confident that the price of Oil is a one-way ticket to Financial Heaven.
Technically, the Oil market went through a decades-long basing pattern known as a contracting triangle. That triangle ended in December 1998 with cash Crude Oil tagging the $10.80/bbl level. From that low, cash prices have risen as high as $110.21 this month. Along the way, the rally has traced out a clear five-wave thrust which has taken the form of a diagonal triangle. That's a pattern which is always completely retraced to its base. It's only a matter of time before the Great Bull Market in Oil is consigned to the dust heap of history and Oil falls back to $10. Patience.
In stocks, the market continued to be volatile, but directionless, on Monday, awaiting the FOMC rate cut (likely, 100 basis points, or 1%, in the overnight Federal Funds rate). Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan with the assistance of the taxpayer, who is now on the hook for $30 Billion in considerably impaired mortgage debt. And, of course, shareholders were left with virtually nothing in this government gift to JPM. It's nice to have friends in high places.
The results of the stock market day were trendless as the lows of January continued to be tested and held:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.18% | +21.16 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.07% | +7.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.25% | +29.64 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.61% | -73.31 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.91% | -108.40 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.97% | -115.37 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.91% | -227.73 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.01% | +240.50 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.70% | -202.79 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.22% | -145.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.73% | -206.67 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.59% | -309.36 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.45% | +172.74 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.34% | +398.98 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.69% | -201.63 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.63% | -195.15 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.48% | -415.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.77% | +450.53 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.40% | -167.74 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.82% | -217.81 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.05% | -364.36 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.21% | +383.61 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.10% | -251.56 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.39% | -285.71 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.19% | -501.05 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.74% | +566.39 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -4.92% | -588.09 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.32% | -277.29 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.28% | -271.95 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.47% | +55.69 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.13% | -134.75 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.81% | +96.91 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.45% | -53.30 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.22% | -26.09 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.62% | -193.15 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.57% | -187.04 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.77% | +91.84 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.50% | +59.94 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.43% | +51.28 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.82% | +97.51 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.23% | +26.93 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.27% | +151.87 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.18% | -21.88 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.67% | +79.52 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.18% | +260.66 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.45% | +172.74 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.59% | +189.65 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.21% | +383.61 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.61% | -73.31 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.01% | +240.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +4.74% | +566.39 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.34% | +398.98 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.77% | +450.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.07% | +127.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.81% | +336.08 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.69% | +321.81 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +5.61% | +670.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.17% | +259.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.46% | +533.02 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +4.65% | +555.16 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.56% | +186.61 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.06% | +366.12 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.91% | +467.62 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.01% | +121.20 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.80% | +95.95 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.12% | +731.13 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.44% | +291.70 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.62% | -193.15 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.11% | +371.27 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.18% | +140.85 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.52% | +301.50 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.98% | +236.54 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.17% | +378.88 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +5.00% | +597.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.11% | +132.82 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +2.57% | +307.56 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.05% | -364.36 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.25% | +29.64 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.91% | -227.73 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.19% | -501.05 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.59% | -309.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.48% | -415.81 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.16% | -138.15 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.07% | -367.39 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -4.14% | -494.80 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -5.34% | -638.55 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.59% | -189.55 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -4.42% | -528.31 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.27% | -629.57 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.78% | -93.76 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.89% | -345.29 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -3.58% | -427.75 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.75% | -90.03 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.14% | +17.30 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.35% | -758.64 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.00% | -119.35 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.22% | -26.09 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.25% | -149.55 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.47% | -55.86 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Stagflation or Just Stagnant Inflation?
The trained monkeys working for the government tell us inflation is stagnant, or at least as close to dead as their pointy-haired bosses would like to see it. On Friday, Consumer Prices were reported to be unchanged in February. And, if you believe that, you need to understand that sometimes governments manipulate the numbers for their own purposes. Yes, Virginia, they do.
The market celebrated the "good news" on inflation until the crowd realized that one of the biggest investment banks in the world (Bear Stearns) was technically bankrupt. A run on the bank on Thursday afternoon caused Bear's net worth to go up in smoke, something all the banks have been afraid would happen if they were to value their assets at current market prices (in other words, valued at the price the last buyer paid for those assets, which is an entirely different thing than real value). The Fed injected money into Bear to keep the system afloat, knowing that a run on the banks must be prevented at all costs. And, it's very likely that this same medicine will be needed for the rest of the "too large to fail" banks which are bankrupt on paper. This is a result of the insane accounting rule called "mark-to-market," which values the price the very last buyer paid for a security as if that were the true value of the security. In a rational market, mark-to-market would be rational. In the real world of irrational markets, mark-to-market is a formula for utter disaster.
Until the banks can unwind their leverage, though, this kind of action is likely to continue. The stock market didn't like the news, but it had better get used to the idea that the Fed will continue to bail out whatever banks need cash as long as they need cash. Whether that's a process which takes 28 days or 28 years doesn't matter. There are banks which are too large to fail. And, until the market can price securities rationally, the only backstop is the Fed.
This coming week, the Fed's Open Market Committee will meet and decide to lower overnight lending rates another 100 basis points (1%). This will satisfy Wall Street's desire for reflation. There will be pundits who say that the Fed is "pushing on a string." That means they don't think lower interest rates will help. Note that these same pundits say exactly the same time at each significant pivot point in the economy. For instance, this is exactly what they said in 2002, which marked the end of a deep bear market in stocks. Of course, the Fed was not pushing on a string and the economy rebounded well thereafter.
Stocks continued to gyrate within the trading range they've been stuck within all year in the week just past. Both the bears and the bulls were out of luck as the market's weekly results were tepid, but mostly positive:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.48% | +57.40 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.92% | +109.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.18% | +140.44 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.41% | -167.19 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.33% | -39.55 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.17% | -20.17 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.77% | -91.08 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.21% | -24.41 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.46% | -55.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.36% | -43.28 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.32% | +38.16 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.26% | +30.36 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.73% | -86.83 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.80% | -213.57 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.99% | +117.19 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.27% | +32.46 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.25% | +148.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.29% | -272.20 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.33% | +39.84 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.43% | +50.89 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.57% | +67.46 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.71% | -203.70 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.04% | +4.38 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.34% | +40.76 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.23% | +27.23 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.09% | -129.34 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.17% | +20.22 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +5.72% | +680.22 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +5.24% | +623.06 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.73% | +324.29 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -5.30% | -630.10 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +5.32% | +632.54 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.75% | -208.46 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.80% | +214.13 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.54% | -183.39 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.92% | -109.46 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +3.00% | +357.21 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +1.28% | +152.36 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.94% | +111.21 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.11% | -132.52 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.18% | +21.20 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.49% | -58.69 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.16% | -138.13 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.30% | +36.24 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.37% | -44.25 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.73% | -86.83 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.96% | -114.16 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.71% | -203.70 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.41% | -167.19 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.21% | -24.41 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.09% | -129.34 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.80% | -213.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.29% | -272.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.17% | +20.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.23% | +26.82 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.75% | -89.14 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.12% | +14.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.36% | -400.11 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.89% | -105.66 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -5.82% | -691.89 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.60% | +71.86 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.43% | +170.03 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.91% | -107.93 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +5.59% | +664.58 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.82% | -217.01 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.75% | -446.20 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -7.32% | -870.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.54% | -183.39 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.74% | -88.52 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.45% | -53.52 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.12% | +133.20 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.69% | -81.82 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.91% | -108.59 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.82% | +98.11 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.70% | +83.02 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +6.67% | +792.91 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.57% | +67.46 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.18% | +140.44 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.77% | -91.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.23% | +27.23 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.26% | +30.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.25% | +148.67 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.41% | -49.08 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.74% | -88.57 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.14% | +16.81 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.39% | -46.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.14% | +254.73 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.40% | -47.61 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +5.76% | +685.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.10% | -130.74 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.20% | -261.09 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.28% | -152.81 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -5.18% | -615.92 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.83% | +98.39 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.30% | +392.54 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +3.60% | +428.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.80% | +214.13 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.52% | +61.60 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.12% | -14.33 |
Commodities moved closer to their inevitable crash last week. Wheat, the most bubblicious of them all, is poised to pull the rest of the commodities down with it. Speculators own the 2007 crop and much of the 2008 crop. The current year's crop looks to be in the bumper category. Without a major disaster, the speculators are going to be eating some very expensive bread before long.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Wrong Way Options Traders Caught Looking Down
Stocks showed considerable strength on Thursday as the overnight session sent the futures sharply lower. However, after a brief dip to partially retrace Tuesday's big rally, stocks were off to the races on the upside once again. OEX options traders, who are mostly wrong and had one of their rare winning days on Tuesday's rally, had been buying puts into the hole. Of course, the reversal left them with big losses by the end of the day. This goes to show that contrary sentiment works most, but not all, of the time. The crowd is always wrong at important turning points. They are sometimes right in the middle of a move, however.
We have not watched CNBC since finding that Bloomberg TV has a free broadband stream available on the Internet via TVU networks. Although Bloomberg TV isn't perfect, it's a breath of fresh air compared to CNBC. Rick Santelli, the former pit trader in Chicago, is probably the only good reason to ever watch CNBC (and, half the time, Liesman talks over him, blathering on about some arcane economic point and obliterating Rick's pit-savvy words of wisdom). But, we did see an excerpt on another NBC network of an on-air argument today between a couple of CNBC-paid journalists, one from Forbes and the other from the Wall $treet Journal. It was almost a Saturday Night Live parody on business television. Maybe the inanity of CNBC might be a good sentiment measure, perhaps? Do they go completely nuts at the bottom of a bear market? Well, someone else can monitor them and let us know.
In any case, the stock market showed real strength in coming back from its early deficit. It's no 90-pound weakling any more (note that the smaller stocks outperformed the Dow by about an 8:1 ratio!):
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.29% | +35.50 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.12% | +14.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.20% | +24.14 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.10% | -12.37 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.51% | +62.09 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.30% | +35.97 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.61% | +74.07 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.54% | -65.78 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.52% | +63.34 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.24% | +28.46 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.10% | +253.76 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +4.14% | +500.76 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.06% | -249.47 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -4.33% | -524.92 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.86% | +225.03 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.04% | +247.59 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.44% | +416.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.11% | -377.00 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.88% | +106.22 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.77% | +93.57 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.58% | +191.48 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.37% | -165.55 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.28% | +155.15 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.36% | +165.00 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.17% | +262.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -216.12 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.65% | +78.26 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.82% | +462.89 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.63% | +439.92 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.37% | +166.03 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -2.84% | -344.27 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +2.33% | +281.63 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.16% | +140.00 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.88% | +348.22 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.96% | -358.38 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.46% | +55.32 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.78% | -94.75 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.53% | -63.70 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.43% | -51.95 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.09% | -131.41 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.05% | -5.76 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.81% | -98.66 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.31% | -37.41 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.40% | -48.15 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.95% | -114.52 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.06% | -249.47 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.48% | -179.11 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.37% | -165.55 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.10% | -12.37 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.54% | -65.78 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -216.12 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -4.33% | -524.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.11% | -377.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.84% | -101.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.24% | -149.62 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.68% | -82.91 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.04% | -247.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.83% | -463.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -4.62% | -558.93 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.86% | -588.46 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.22% | -26.57 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.69% | -84.04 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.46% | -176.98 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.61% | -195.10 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.34% | -161.76 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.17% | -383.41 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.43% | -294.72 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.96% | -358.38 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.48% | -58.54 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.39% | -47.59 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.72% | +87.06 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.28% | +33.75 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.62% | -74.78 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +1.49% | +180.79 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.33% | -161.41 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +4.91% | +594.41 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.58% | +191.48 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.20% | +24.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.61% | +74.07 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.17% | +262.50 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +4.14% | +500.76 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.44% | +416.39 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.41% | +171.11 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.20% | +266.64 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +1.31% | +158.76 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +3.07% | +371.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.34% | +403.99 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.46% | +418.51 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +4.38% | +530.28 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.36% | +44.02 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.58% | +69.99 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.86% | +225.50 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.78% | +215.94 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.76% | +91.70 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.15% | +381.11 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.58% | -70.05 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.88% | +348.22 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.57% | +69.10 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.33% | +39.54 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Commodities Still Bubbling
Stocks retraced a small percentage of their big Tuesday rally on Wednesday. But, the big story continues to be the bubble in commodities, the largest since the housing bubble burst. All bubbles end in pain for those still in denial and the crowd continues to pour into commodities via futures or ETFs. Futures prices for staples like Wheat are running considerably higher than cash prices. For example, December 2008 Wheat futures closed at $12.575 per bushel in Chicago on Wednesday. But, cash prices for Wheat closed at just $10.485 per bushel. When the futures price gets so far ahead of cash prices, you just have to realize that those prices are destined to come back together at some point in the future. Usually, but not always, the futures price will come down to meet the cash price.
Another big bubble is the bond market, where prices are reflecting a rate so low that an investor buying US Treasury bonds who holds those bonds to maturity is actually guaranteed to lose money to taxes and inflation over the life of the bond. Contrast this to 1981, when the 30-year Treasury Bond offered a yield of 13% per year. That bond returned a magnificent sum in coupon payments and the price of the bond rose over its entire lifetime, so an investor could have sold it at a profit at any time (although a guaranteed 13% per year return is nothing to sniff at). We advised investors to buy bonds then. Right now, we're looking forward to the day when we can advise investors to sell bonds short.
One thing is certain: when the bubble ends, everyone will be asking themselves, "How could I have been so stupid?"
In any case, stocks are looking very attractive at current prices. That doesn't mean it's time to buy-and-hold. It does mean that we're getting very close to that point in time. Wednesday's session was tame compared to commodities (and, someday, commodity investors will be coming back to stocks looking for a respite from the "action"):
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.38% | -46.57 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.52% | -63.78 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.92% | -111.47 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.17% | +142.33 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.94% | -113.96 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.06% | -128.26 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.01% | -244.08 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.06% | +250.85 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.69% | -84.48 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.38% | -46.44 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.05% | -127.73 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.60% | -194.33 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.39% | +169.28 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.07% | +252.08 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.00% | -121.42 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.16% | -140.90 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.09% | -253.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.04% | +248.16 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.39% | -47.27 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.28% | -34.06 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.89% | -229.51 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.77% | +215.47 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.48% | -58.78 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.62% | -75.97 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.78% | -216.33 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.03% | +125.25 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.68% | +82.54 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.36% | +44.20 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.37% | +45.46 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.06% | +129.18 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.64% | -199.95 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.90% | +231.42 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.54% | -187.62 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.17% | +20.75 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.46% | +177.75 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.00% | -242.70 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.93% | +234.52 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +1.15% | +140.15 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +1.02% | +124.54 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +1.21% | +146.50 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.32% | +39.15 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.69% | +84.38 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.73% | +88.89 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.19% | +144.92 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.15% | +18.28 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.39% | +169.28 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.04% | +126.12 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.77% | +215.47 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.17% | +142.33 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.06% | +250.85 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.03% | +125.25 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.07% | +252.08 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.04% | +248.16 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.45% | +176.54 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.76% | +92.05 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.83% | +222.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.14% | +139.04 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.39% | +291.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.96% | +238.37 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.52% | +184.52 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.45% | +55.26 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.32% | +161.05 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.66% | +566.88 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.25% | +30.32 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.53% | -307.56 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.64% | +321.18 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +3.20% | +388.57 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.46% | +177.75 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.97% | +239.68 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.88% | +350.20 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.83% | +222.48 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.79% | -96.26 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.47% | +422.14 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.31% | +38.16 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +7.45% | +906.09 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.89% | -229.51 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.92% | -111.47 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.01% | -244.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.78% | -216.33 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.60% | -194.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.09% | -253.49 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.79% | -96.64 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.14% | -259.80 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.55% | -66.74 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.41% | -49.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.13% | -136.84 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.43% | -174.08 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.18% | -143.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.57% | -68.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.98% | -119.65 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.89% | -594.08 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.15% | +17.90 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.25% | +151.45 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.78% | -338.35 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -4.27% | -518.74 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.17% | +20.75 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.27% | -154.10 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.85% | -224.90 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
The Empire Strikes Back
The Fed moved boldly to strike at the heart of the frozen banking system. Early Tuesday morning, the Fed announced an initiative to open up the floodgates and encourage banks to begin lending money by offering to accept non-government paper in return for Treasury securities. Since Treasury securities are backed by the full faith and credit of the US government, this should eliminate some of the panicky fears of the bankers and grease the financial wheels of the economy.
It's clear that the Bernanke Fed is serious about getting the bankers into line and marching off to work. The bankers' jobs are to lend money to keep the economy going and they now have their orders.
While the markets have been assuming the Fed would continue slashing short term interest rates, that assumption is being called into question by the latest Fed move. According to the Fed's own model of where short term rates should be set, the current level of Fed Funds is actually set commensurate with the upper part of an inflation zone of 1-2%, the Fed's target band. First of all, were the Fed to ease the 75 basis points (¾%) which the markets are calling for, it would move the Fed Funds rate into a target inflation band of 2-3%, which is something the Fed is loathe to do. Secondly, previous reductions in short term rates have not caused longer term rates to decline, but rise instead. Mortgage rates have actually risen. So, there are two strikes against the Fed lowering short term rates. Those rates should stay in the proper band. The Fed got burned last year by keeping rates outside of their proper band (they were too tight according to the formula and pushed the economy toward recession). Once burned, twice shy, and they may be very reluctant to take another step in the same direction.
Those two strikes and today's announcement of additional tools to fight the recession suggest to us that the Fed will either not cut rates at next week's meeting or will cut them only a minimal 25 basis points. The problem the economy has is with the banks refusing to lend money, not that rates are too high. In fact, a study released Tuesday and reported on Bloomberg TV suggested that the current series of rate cuts have actually hurt business confidence, rather than helping (this aspect was covered on Bloomberg's On the Economy program hosted by Kathleen Hays -- note to those who don't receive Bloomberg TV on their local cable providers, the network is now available free on the Internet via the TVU Networks streaming video service for broadband users, channel 10085).
The bond market sold off hard on the news, but stocks soared:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +3.55% | +416.66 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +3.50% | +411.43 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +6.78% | +795.76 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -7.01% | -823.28 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +3.66% | +430.10 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +3.75% | +440.60 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +7.33% | +860.97 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -7.52% | -882.77 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +3.61% | +424.12 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +3.40% | +399.37 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +3.82% | +448.57 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.04% | +827.03 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -4.12% | -483.31 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.28% | -737.49 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +4.50% | +528.51 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +4.34% | +509.65 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +8.08% | +948.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -8.50% | -997.85 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +4.34% | +509.88 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +3.81% | +446.73 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +8.98% | +1054.18 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -8.91% | -1045.61 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +3.29% | +386.61 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +3.11% | +365.65 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +7.68% | +901.85 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.41% | -752.49 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.67% | +195.84 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.95% | +463.78 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.25% | +498.90 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.13% | +14.69 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.29% | -33.69 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.55% | +64.20 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.18% | +373.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.85% | +569.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -7.47% | -876.47 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +6.92% | +812.55 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.85% | -100.35 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -1.09% | -127.44 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.61% | -71.26 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.14% | -134.22 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.50% | -58.52 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -4.20% | -493.24 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -3.77% | -442.89 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -3.96% | -465.37 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.92% | -342.68 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -4.12% | -483.31 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -4.73% | -555.30 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -8.91% | -1045.61 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -7.01% | -823.28 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -7.52% | -882.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.41% | -752.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.28% | -737.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -8.50% | -997.85 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -7.72% | -906.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -5.03% | -590.94 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -7.79% | -914.70 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -6.17% | -724.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -9.58% | -1124.83 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -8.97% | -1052.59 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -11.17% | -1311.20 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.76% | -441.97 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.59% | -656.25 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -13.58% | -1594.60 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.23% | -144.58 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -5.12% | -601.51 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -8.75% | -1027.40 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -12.22% | -1435.17 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -7.47% | -876.47 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -7.77% | -911.89 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -6.09% | -715.07 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -6.95% | -815.43 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -2.50% | -293.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -5.87% | -688.74 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -13.83% | -1623.47 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -5.68% | -666.89 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -18.81% | -2208.60 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +8.98% | +1054.18 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +6.78% | +795.76 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +7.33% | +860.97 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +7.68% | +901.85 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.04% | +827.03 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +8.08% | +948.03 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +7.34% | +862.12 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +6.37% | +747.68 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +5.20% | +610.17 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +5.33% | +626.01 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +8.28% | +971.69 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +9.19% | +1079.17 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +11.88% | +1394.80 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +3.82% | +448.23 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +5.51% | +646.40 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +13.51% | +1586.62 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.40% | +164.37 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +6.46% | +758.59 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +9.05% | +1062.40 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +13.66% | +1603.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.85% | +569.94 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +7.13% | +837.00 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +5.18% | +607.96 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
The Bankers' Panic of 2008
The bankers are in a state of panic today. They are acting irrationally and their actions are putting the entire economy into a potential depressionary spiral. In fact, if Osama were planning to destroy the US economy using financial weapons of mass destruction, he would do exactly what the bankers are doing right now: namely, calling in perfectly good loans and forcing businesses to sell assets at fire sale prices. These margin calls that bankers are sending out to businesses are precipitating massive stock selling by money managers, which is putting downward pressure on stock prices. It's a perfect terrorist scenario which hits the US economy at its weakest point.
It's also putting upward pressure on mortgage rates which are heading higher despite lower short term rates, thus undoing the easing the Fed is trying to implement with short term interest rate cuts. Higher mortgage rates will make it more likely that home loans can't be refinanced and more homes will go into foreclosure, bumping up the supply of houses and sending prices of all homes plunging. This odious feedback loop will eventually swallow up the whole economy if the bankers continue on their path of "mutually assured destruction" (MAD).
Will the Bush Adminstration sit idly by and watch the economy crumble? That's the 64 Trillion Dollar question. This is the time for the Republican Party, who are clearly responsible for this mess, to act to avert disaster or simply give up and cede the reins to those more skillful at running the economy than themselves. It's not clear that the Democrats would be any better, but they would probably not be any worse than the Republicans have been. Certainly, there will be no Republicans elected this Autumn if this country falls into a depressionary spiral before the Election. So, it's now crucial for the Fed and the US Treasury to step in and take whatever action is necessary to stop this downward spiral or they will rue the day they stood back and watched Rome burn.
According to some, Bernanke (Fed Head) and Paulson (Treasury Head) will come to the rescue of the economy. Maybe they will. They do say to buy when blood is running in the Street and that does seem to be the case today. We should probably expect some kind of dramatic bailout plan to be announced very soon.
Stocks sank under the weight of forced liquidation caused by the banking panic on Monday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.29% | -153.54 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.91% | -108.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.01% | -238.75 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.09% | +248.84 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.66% | -197.83 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.40% | -165.97 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.83% | -336.42 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.93% | +348.69 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.64% | -194.48 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.52% | -180.57 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.13% | -253.28 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.28% | -508.54 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.81% | +215.57 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.54% | +301.75 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.18% | -258.71 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.21% | -263.26 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.18% | -378.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.86% | +458.85 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.13% | -253.85 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.93% | -229.00 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.88% | -461.31 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.84% | +456.71 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.09% | -248.88 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.82% | -216.34 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.43% | -527.01 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.63% | +431.70 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.50% | -178.57 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.47% | -412.27 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -4.02% | -478.42 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.23% | -27.23 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.16% | +19.54 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.62% | -73.87 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.42% | -168.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.64% | -76.67 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.11% | +250.87 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.55% | -302.89 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.47% | +175.38 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.72% | +85.38 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.53% | +63.21 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.02% | -2.29 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +12.72 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.04% | +242.09 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.75% | +89.70 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.39% | +165.67 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.98% | +235.43 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.81% | +215.57 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.97% | +234.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.84% | +456.71 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.09% | +248.84 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.93% | +348.69 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.63% | +431.70 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.54% | +301.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.86% | +458.85 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.41% | +405.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.78% | +330.75 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.78% | +330.77 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.18% | +497.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.15% | +374.08 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +6.22% | +739.65 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +6.97% | +829.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.29% | +153.30 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.19% | +379.02 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.96% | +590.49 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +4.94% | +587.00 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.98% | +473.94 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +3.06% | +363.46 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.99% | +355.45 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.11% | +250.87 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.33% | +276.63 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.59% | +189.24 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.30% | +273.81 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.25% | +29.22 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.98% | +116.35 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +4.15% | +493.30 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.04% | +123.88 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +4.18% | +496.74 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.88% | -461.31 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.01% | -238.75 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.83% | -336.42 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -4.43% | -527.01 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.28% | -508.54 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.18% | -378.44 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.28% | -390.08 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.32% | -395.30 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.10% | -249.36 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -4.24% | -504.52 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -3.13% | -372.29 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -6.14% | -729.97 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -6.31% | -750.44 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.92% | -109.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.29% | -391.64 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.14% | -492.39 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -4.34% | -516.10 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -4.61% | -547.90 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.70% | -321.52 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.64% | -432.81 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.64% | -76.67 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.92% | -228.81 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.70% | -202.41 |
The commodity bubble may be bursting. Considering how far prices have gone into bubble land, the fallout could be felt as far as China. The "growth engine" of the world may be feeling some pain before long.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Stocks Retest January Lows
Last week, the credit market freeze continued to chill the stock market. Margin calls on debt securities which have only an infinitesimal chance of defaulting demonstrated how utterly irrational bankers are at the present time. When things get crazy, the inmates are put in charge of the asylum.
The cries for a government bailout are growing and even those who last year decried the idea are beginning to advance limited bailout schemes. This is a positive step, although it sows the seeds of the next great asset bubble. Undoubtedly, there will eventually be a government bailout scheme (taxpayers, get your checkbooks out and be ready for the call for cash that's coming). With the value of homes falling nationwide and expected to fall further (30% or more seems like a reasonable target for the haircut home values will take eventually), the most likely bailout scheme will involve forcing mortgage debt creditors to writeoff that decline in value, thus forgiving the debtor from owing more than the home is worth. If this isn't done, there is nothing to prevent the debtor from dumping the mortgage, and the house, back on the creditor, who then has to sell the house into a market with huge oversupply, resulting in even larger losses than they would have taken on the writedown. Thus, it's a win-win situation for both creditor and debtor. The taxpayer, of course, picks up the tab on the taxes forgiven.
One twist to the scheme: once the real estate market recovers (and, it will in time) and the home is sold, if the sales price allows recapture of some or all of the amount written down, a check will be issued to the creditor for some or all of the writedown.
So, there's the light at the end of the tunnel. Now, all it will take is for the financial professionals (you know them: they're the ones who are so afraid to take risks that they are issuing margin calls on holders of government agency paper with no chance of default) to work out the details. And, of course, for Congress and the President to pass a law enabling this scheme.
Meanwhile, in the stock market, the frozen credit markets and the subsequent fallout into the
economy was an ever-present Sword of Damocles hanging over the Street last week. The icing on
the cake was the BLS Phantasy Jobs Report (sometimes referred to as the Monthly Employment
Report), which showed two straight months of job losses. Actually, John Mauldin makes a cogent
case that the real job loss figure was 2,500,000, not the measly 63,000 that was reported, but
that's like arguing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. The BLS, the Keystone
Cops of the government, also cheerfully pointed out that, despite the job losses, the unemployment
rate actually dropped 0.1% last month. Well, that's great news, isn't it? The gang that
can't count straight is telling us the unemployment rate is still close to its multi-decade low.
Those who have lost their jobs are going to be encouraged by that news — not!
A note to all those clueless economists who go on Bloomberg/CNBC/etc and show charts of the unemployment rate going back several decades: The government redefined unemployment in the last decade and your charts may purport to show a long term decline in unemployment, but it isn't so. The current unadjusted unemployment rate, if you use the definition of "unemployment" used before the redefinition, is actually 9.5%. That's about double the current Keystone Cops headline rate.
The retest of the prior lows left the market down for the week:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -3.04% | -372.70 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -3.37% | -413.60 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -6.03% | -740.07 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +6.12% | +751.09 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.91% | -357.05 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -3.07% | -376.74 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -6.23% | -763.95 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.82% | +713.49 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -3.19% | -391.73 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -3.10% | -380.30 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.16% | -387.87 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.73% | -825.06 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +3.67% | +449.75 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.99% | +857.49 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.86% | -473.19 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -4.21% | -516.59 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -8.33% | -1022.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +8.88% | +1088.66 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.40% | -293.95 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.05% | -251.33 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.11% | -626.35 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.34% | +654.55 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -3.51% | -430.91 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -3.52% | -432.07 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -7.31% | -896.09 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +8.52% | +1044.53 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.14% | -17.35 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.30% | +36.59 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.62% | +76.20 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.09% | -11.48 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.37% | +45.51 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.27% | -33.24 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.99% | -120.88 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.47% | -303.14 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.30% | +281.70 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.63% | -690.30 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -2.12% | -260.35 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.23% | -28.38 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -1.29% | -158.50 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -2.04% | -250.45 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.02% | -2.91 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +3.26% | +400.42 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +4.25% | +520.74 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +3.48% | +427.30 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +3.64% | +446.53 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +3.67% | +449.75 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +4.37% | +536.06 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +5.34% | +654.55 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +6.12% | +751.09 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +5.82% | +713.49 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +8.52% | +1044.53 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +6.99% | +857.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +8.88% | +1088.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +6.62% | +812.04 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +5.14% | +630.04 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +6.18% | +757.82 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +6.98% | +856.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +7.54% | +924.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +8.33% | +1022.20 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +5.99% | +734.42 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.38% | +291.70 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +5.70% | +698.91 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +11.80% | +1447.04 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +5.81% | +712.44 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +5.32% | +652.45 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +8.75% | +1073.85 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +7.95% | +975.10 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.30% | +281.70 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +4.50% | +551.99 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.08% | +9.87 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +4.47% | +548.58 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.83% | +347.10 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +5.43% | +666.32 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +12.00% | +1471.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +7.90% | +969.40 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +13.97% | +1713.18 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.11% | -626.35 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -6.03% | -740.07 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -6.23% | -763.95 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -7.31% | -896.09 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -6.73% | -825.06 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -8.33% | -1022.20 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -7.14% | -875.82 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -4.59% | -563.26 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -6.48% | -794.52 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -6.53% | -801.55 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.13% | -752.42 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -8.99% | -1102.26 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -9.91% | -1215.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.74% | -335.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -5.95% | -730.11 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -12.41% | -1522.27 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -6.18% | -758.30 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -4.27% | -523.80 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.24% | -765.40 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -8.10% | -993.38 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.47% | -303.14 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.17% | -388.89 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.05% | +5.54 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Marking to Market
The flaws of the mark-to-market model of portfolio pricing were clearly evident Thursday. With trading frozen in many credit derivative markets, many investments have not been marked to market (last trade) but marked to model. But, when a security which has no chance of going bad gets sold at distressed prices far from "fair value," other holders of such securities suddenly become exposed to the myth of the market being the ultimate arbiter of value. When this mispricing of instruments happens, those other holders of similar paper receive margin calls from their bankers due to the "drop" in value of those securities and then have to liquidate whatever securities they have on hand to meet those margin calls.
That process is fundamentally flawed, of course, as can be clearly proven. A rational investor would simply ignore the mispricing of the market. But, in today's topsy-turvy credit markets, there are no rational investors (or bankers) and the new price causes an avalanche of forced selling. That forced selling no doubt causes additional margin calls and the whole strange feedback loop continues until prices are so bent out of shape that blood is figuratively running in the streets. Perhaps it's the flip side of manic debt creation, but the mania is just as extreme, maybe more so, on the downside as it was on the upside.
Little did Alan Greenspan know (or, did he?) what chaos he was creating when, in the early 'Naughties, just before the Fed started gradually quintupling interest rates, he recommended that home buyers take out Adjustable Rate Mortgages. At the time, long term fixed mortgage rates were near historic lows. Was there an ulterior motive for that seemingly irrational advice? We'll probably never know. But, we do know the ultimate result of that statement: utter chaos in the credit markets as the mountain of explosive and unstable debt created by the Maestro comes home to roost on the market today.
Now, Bernanke gets the job of cleaning up the mess and he apparently can't, or won't, take the logical step of seizing illiquid bank assets and auctioning them off to the highest bidder on the open market. Sure, that would leave shareholders of those banks with nothing to show for their investment. But, it would certainly solve the problems in exactly the same way the government solved the problem with the Texas real estate bust in the 'Eighties. Ultimately, it was great for real estate buyers and for the real estate market itself. Many properties were purchased at 50¢ on the dollar and zoomed higher within a few months, recovering most of their value and creating great wealth for those who purchased properties at auction. The market made a very quick recovery after this forced liquidation and the economy mounted a strong rebound. Apparently, Washington doesn't have the sense to take action and continues to watch, paralyzed, as the whole economy disappears down the mousehole of this Alice in Wonderland nightmare.
The nightmare made its typical visit to Wall Street, pulling stocks down to the low of the week, on Thursday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.75% | -214.60 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.68% | -206.46 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.85% | -471.48 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.41% | +417.83 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.15% | -263.90 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.07% | -253.65 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.26% | -521.95 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.50% | +551.41 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.20% | -269.39 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.20% | -269.49 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.49% | -304.82 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.17% | -633.63 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.27% | +277.80 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.77% | +707.43 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.09% | -378.72 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.33% | -408.20 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -6.85% | -839.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.91% | +846.36 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.25% | -275.14 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.20% | -270.00 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.09% | -624.28 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.80% | +588.44 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.75% | -336.79 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.82% | -344.99 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.39% | -660.93 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.92% | +726.01 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.75% | -213.87 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.06% | -6.89 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.16% | +20.17 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.25% | -153.00 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +2.03% | +248.52 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -2.29% | -281.04 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.63% | -322.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.37% | -290.04 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.47% | +547.94 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.57% | -437.62 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.53% | +65.54 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.80% | +98.57 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.15% | -18.12 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.13% | -16.42 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.30% | +36.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.78% | +340.20 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.19% | +268.71 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.64% | +201.50 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.61% | +319.81 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.27% | +277.80 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.87% | +352.15 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.80% | +588.44 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.41% | +417.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.50% | +551.41 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +5.92% | +726.01 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.77% | +707.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +6.91% | +846.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +4.85% | +593.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.43% | +297.25 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +4.83% | +592.11 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.66% | +570.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +6.47% | +792.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +6.21% | +761.64 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.11% | +258.68 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.28% | +279.69 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.81% | +589.24 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +7.76% | +950.61 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +4.46% | +547.13 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.81% | +466.64 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +4.37% | +535.54 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +9.64% | +1181.07 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +4.47% | +547.94 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.98% | +242.53 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +3.85% | +471.50 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.00% | +367.36 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.47% | +180.72 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.77% | +339.09 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +6.74% | +826.54 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.53% | +187.78 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +7.46% | +913.84 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -5.09% | -624.28 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.85% | -471.48 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.26% | -521.95 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -5.39% | -660.93 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.17% | -633.63 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -6.85% | -839.77 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -4.69% | -574.53 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.95% | -361.25 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -4.67% | -572.33 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -5.31% | -650.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.21% | -515.86 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -6.31% | -773.00 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.34% | -286.48 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.22% | -271.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -4.31% | -527.59 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -7.40% | -907.48 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -4.26% | -522.44 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.17% | -387.89 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.28% | -524.90 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -9.77% | -1197.58 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.37% | -290.04 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.71% | -454.62 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -4.20% | -514.22 |
As the table above shows, stocks weren't the only asset class to be hit on Thursday. The commodity complex is in trouble now, too. Some say that the Fed is responsible for the dotcom bubble of the 'Nineties, then the real estate bubble that followed. Has the Fed created yet another bubble in commodities? And, if it has, how much longer can the commodity bubble continue? Some very respected analysts who have been following commodity markets for many years are now saying that a collapse in commodity prices is near at hand. Traders in Gold now have a double inverse gold ETF to play with (DZZ in the table above). That may just be the straw that breaks the commodity bubble's back.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
Market Continues Short Term Uptrend
The stock market continued to advance Wednesday despite continuing bombshells from the bond insurance sector. The advance is not technically strong, but price action suggests that it could continue.
Breadth was mediocre, showing advances ahead of declines by only 1073 issues, for an overall advance/decline ratio of 1.44. It was a 61% up volume day for the NYSE. To confirm a new intermediate uptrend would require at least successive 80% up days. Cycles point up until Friday and the Elliott Wave count would support further price rally even on these kinds of internals. Despite an intraday dip on bad news on a bond insurer, the market closed strong:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.34% | +41.19 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.38% | +46.90 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.17% | +142.44 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.53% | -65.18 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.50% | +61.50 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.63% | +77.15 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.26% | +154.40 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.28% | -155.82 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.80% | +97.49 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.86% | +104.76 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.28% | +34.07 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.60% | +73.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.13% | +15.84 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.87% | -106.26 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.28% | +34.62 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.96% | +117.09 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.42% | +173.93 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.88% | -229.44 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.70% | +85.39 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.49% | +59.77 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.92% | +234.19 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.05% | -128.45 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.61% | +74.04 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.60% | +73.23 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.87% | +228.07 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.20% | -146.79 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.89% | +230.97 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.68% | +448.89 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.68% | +449.19 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.67% | +325.94 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.02% | +124.14 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.52% | +185.06 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.03% | -247.64 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.57% | -69.56 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.20% | -146.20 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.43% | -52.98 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.64% | -77.76 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.70% | -85.91 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.06% | -7.27 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.17% | -21.28 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.76% | -93.02 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.64% | -78.70 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.13% | +15.84 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.33% | -40.88 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.05% | -128.45 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.53% | -65.18 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.28% | -155.82 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.20% | -146.79 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.87% | -106.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.88% | -229.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.89% | -108.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.64% | -78.39 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.86% | -105.11 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.64% | -200.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.55% | -66.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.53% | -186.87 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.77% | -583.07 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.50% | -60.88 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.54% | -188.08 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.44% | +175.36 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.01% | -1.60 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.03% | -248.35 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.92% | -356.05 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.03% | -247.64 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.41% | +49.53 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.47% | -57.19 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.72% | -210.29 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.31% | -159.53 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.19% | -267.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -3.91% | -477.58 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.34% | -42.07 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.57% | -436.57 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.92% | +234.19 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.17% | +142.44 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.26% | +154.40 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.87% | +228.07 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.60% | +73.87 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.42% | +173.93 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.66% | +80.19 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.89% | +108.33 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +1.89% | +231.38 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.52% | +185.77 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.27% | -155.45 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.35% | +164.78 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +4.72% | +576.33 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.22% | +149.56 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.24% | +29.43 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.66% | -202.50 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.08% | -10.16 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.65% | +201.22 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.85% | +348.68 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.77% | +93.45 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.52% | +185.06 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.15% | +141.02 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.88% | +108.01 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
A Bullish Day on Wall Street
Stocks ended their four-day decline on Tuesday, the prototypical "Turnaround Day" for the stock market. Although the market finished below Monday's closing levels, the Dow ended up 181 points from its very significant intraday low. More importantly for the bulls, the tech-heavy market leading NASDAQ-100 Index gained ten points on the day and that's the traditional sign of an "all-clear" signal for the bulls.
The market may be paying a lot of attention to today's voting in the Texas Presidential primary. Early results show McCain winning enough delegates to carry the Republican torch all the way to the Election in November. Democratic stategists worry that if Obama wins the Democratic nomination, McCain has a good chance of winning the Presidency. That's because polls of Clinton voters show that in a head-to-head competition between Obama and McCain, about 15% of those Clinton voters would vote for McCain. This suggests that, once again, the Democrats are on track to lose the Executive Office. If the Democrats gain a solid majority in Congress, as does seem probable, this would be very bullish for the stock market. The stock market typically likes a divided government, so a Republican White House and a Democratic Congress would be the best of all possible world for the stock market. But, there are a lot of twists and turns on the way to the Inauguration and it's very hard to predict how this election will turn out. Still, the market seems to be recognizing that the potential for a very good outcome is likely.
In any case, the Tuesday Turnaround left the market virtually unchanged:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.37% | -45.10 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.08% | -10.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.99% | -121.09 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.47% | +57.25 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.35% | -43.18 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.38% | -46.83 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.40% | -49.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.01% | +123.71 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.88% | -107.88 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.83% | -101.30 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.40% | -49.58 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.34% | -41.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.12% | +14.33 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.73% | +89.27 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.43% | -52.14 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.59% | -71.90 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.07% | -131.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.37% | +167.56 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.56% | +69.17 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.56% | +68.95 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.82% | +100.26 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.02% | -125.32 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.58% | -71.40 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.42% | -51.39 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.29% | -158.72 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.06% | +129.55 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.34% | -163.86 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.46% | -424.09 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.42% | -419.70 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.12% | -259.70 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.81% | +98.99 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.65% | +80.12 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.12% | -15.32 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.84% | -103.12 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.97% | -119.13 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.38% | -46.18 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.43% | -52.61 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.59% | -71.82 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.02% | -2.92 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -2.24% | -275.16 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.48% | +59.35 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.10% | -12.81 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.56% | +68.08 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.12% | +14.33 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.56% | +68.78 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.02% | -125.32 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.47% | +57.25 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.01% | +123.71 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.06% | +129.55 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.73% | +89.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.37% | +167.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.88% | +108.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.22% | +27.36 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.50% | +184.49 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.31% | +160.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.71% | +86.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.57% | +191.93 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.86% | +473.46 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.31% | +37.46 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.21% | +148.46 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.47% | +179.60 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.10% | +12.85 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.85% | -104.06 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.89% | +354.57 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.27% | +155.87 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.12% | -15.32 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.56% | -69.20 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.42% | -296.07 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.12% | +260.25 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.09% | +134.12 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.49% | +304.89 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.76% | +460.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.75% | +459.98 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +8.23% | +1009.17 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.82% | +100.26 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.99% | -121.09 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.40% | -49.03 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.29% | -158.72 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.34% | -41.87 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -1.07% | -131.46 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -100.00% | -12258.90 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.17% | -21.28 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12258.90 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.13% | -15.70 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.10% | -12.72 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.07% | +131.15 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -4.33% | -531.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.16% | +142.12 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.86% | +105.63 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.09% | -134.02 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.03% | -4.08 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.91% | -111.39 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.83% | -347.39 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -3.03% | -371.72 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.65% | +80.12 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.71% | +86.86 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.88% | +229.93 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, March 03, 2008
Buying the Dip
Although the market was initially weak due to currency considerations (unwinding of carry trades which were underwater likely contributed to the initial selloff), threats of central bank intervention to push the Yen lower and bargain hunting worked their magic on stocks Monday. Our leading indicators flashed bullish intraday indicators which proved to be right by the close as the market recovered from its midday losses to close virtually unchanged:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.06% | -7.49 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.47% | -57.80 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.31% | -37.43 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.29% | +36.17 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.07% | -8.47 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.24% | -29.33 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.07% | -131.22 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.09% | -11.42 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.09% | +10.85 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.05% | +5.97 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.05% | -6.41 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.25% | -153.33 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.48% | +59.22 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.42% | +51.69 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.29% | -35.04 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.96% | -117.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.92% | -112.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.57% | +192.12 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.98% | -119.67 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.65% | -79.97 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.17% | -265.88 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.16% | +265.55 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.17% | +20.38 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.10% | +12.48 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.50% | -61.35 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.10% | +134.97 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.58% | +194.32 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.12% | +382.92 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.82% | +346.38 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.10% | +135.19 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.73% | -89.87 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.50% | -61.16 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.95% | +116.09 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.99% | -121.13 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.63% | -76.80 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.56% | -68.93 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.39% | -47.67 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.42% | -51.94 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.19% | -23.31 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.87% | +351.58 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.68% | +82.93 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.56% | +68.15 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.02% | -1.89 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.48% | +59.22 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.44% | +53.76 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.16% | +265.55 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares ( | ||