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 Add Market Clues Blog to My Yahoo!Links: MyClues Home Page Thermopower, a breakthrough alternative energy, carbon-free and completely clean RSS Feed Market Clues Subscription Information Page Time & Cycles TFNN - Tom O'Brien T Theory - Terry Laundry Elliott Wave International's Market Report My Yahoo! Google News "The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." ---John Maynard Keynes "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ---Thomas Jefferson "I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt." ---Thomas Jefferson
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
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Friday, May 30, 2008
Defying Gravity
Stocks continued to advance Thursday following the path of least resistance (at least, on the short term). Government attempts to bolster confidence with an obviously faked GDP Report did probably provide some support for the rally (it certainly caused a nervous breakdown in the bond market). Nowadays, the government can cook up any growth rate it wishes simply by understating inflation by a requisite amount. The reported GDP number, called "real GDP" is obtained by taking the gross GDP number and subtracting an estimate of the inflation rate from it. An unrealistically low inflation estimate can result in a positive real GDP number. For instance, the government statisticians estimated inflation was 3½%, which is clearly a lie designed to make the real GDP number positive. Using methodology for measuring inflation which predates the Reagan Administration, the inflation rate would have been nearly 12%, resulting in a contraction in real GDP, otherwise popularly known as a "recession." The current bush in the White House, however, has decreed that there shall be no recession and the chefs in the kitchen have duly delivered a positive number.
In any case, the stock market continued to rachet higher as the crowd in the OEX market, apparently as skeptical as we are, continued to buy puts on the idea that a recession might cause earnings to decline:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.41% | +52.19 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.17% | +21.99 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.53% | +66.87 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.34% | -42.75 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.52% | +65.74 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.47% | +58.74 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.88% | +110.26 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.99% | -125.19 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.08% | +10.13 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.10% | +13.14 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.81% | +102.36 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.01% | +253.66 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.00% | -126.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.72% | -217.14 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.95% | +119.04 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.02% | +128.23 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.03% | +255.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.70% | -214.28 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.20% | +151.63 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.89% | +112.51 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.82% | +229.32 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.82% | -228.86 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.34% | +42.55 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.39% | +49.21 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.67% | +84.20 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.56% | -70.43 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -2.70% | -340.38 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.35% | -422.44 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.64% | -458.60 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.95% | -371.58 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +6.20% | +781.23 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -5.44% | -685.47 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.41% | -51.18 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.35% | -169.47 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.37% | +172.92 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.61% | +203.15 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.72% | -90.61 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.47% | -59.06 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.28% | -34.95 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.48% | -60.96 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.04% | -4.56 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.93% | -117.53 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.31% | -38.81 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.58% | -73.52 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.24% | -30.41 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.00% | -126.49 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.02% | -128.83 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.82% | -228.86 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.34% | -42.75 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.99% | -125.19 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.56% | -70.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.72% | -217.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.70% | -214.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.46% | -309.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.30% | -164.19 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -100.00% | -12594.03 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.62% | -204.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -2.05% | -257.86 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.83% | -229.85 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +4.08% | +513.95 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.05% | -258.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.93% | -242.59 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.85% | -358.71 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -3.40% | -428.27 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.34% | -43.37 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +4.96% | +624.72 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.47% | -310.53 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.37% | +172.92 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.20% | -151.54 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.92% | -115.27 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.49% | -61.22 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.11% | +13.62 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.52% | +65.27 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.59% | -74.81 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.39% | -300.60 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.16% | -397.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.82% | +229.32 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.53% | +66.87 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.88% | +110.26 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.67% | +84.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.01% | +253.66 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.03% | +255.36 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.92% | +242.15 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.34% | +168.70 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12594.03 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.44% | +55.14 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.62% | +455.95 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +2.66% | +335.24 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -3.22% | -405.29 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.20% | +277.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.70% | +339.81 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.12% | +392.62 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +3.43% | +431.41 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.25% | +157.47 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.79% | -603.13 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.44% | +307.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.35% | -169.47 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.18% | +149.13 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.02% | +129.04 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Is the Market Climbing a Wall of Worry?
Another early rally was snuffed by sellers, leading many options players to buy puts. However, late in the session, stocks rallied back to challenge those early highs once again. This suggests that the market may be climbing a very large "Wall of Worry" right now. As worried as the crowd is right now, the unwinding of bearish positions may be exactly what is helping push the market up. In fact, we've heard exasperated traders refer to the market as a beach ball: attempts to hold it underwater for long seem to produce a quick pop to the surface.
The end result seems to be that, although the upside progress is slow, progress is nevertheless in the upward direction:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.36% | +45.68 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.42% | +53.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.82% | +102.44 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.93% | -117.21 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.44% | +54.89 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.45% | +56.08 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.99% | +124.82 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.83% | -104.17 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.54% | +67.79 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.54% | +67.28 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.48% | +60.13 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.14% | +143.51 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.58% | -72.36 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.80% | -100.89 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.49% | +61.00 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.46% | +58.19 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.89% | +112.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.26% | -157.67 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.30% | +37.92 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.41% | +51.17 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.26% | +157.61 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.15% | -144.90 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.86% | +108.00 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.69% | +87.12 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.72% | +215.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -221.57 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.50% | +62.98 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.04% | +129.97 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.19% | +148.71 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.25% | -30.89 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.90% | +112.84 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.87% | -109.02 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.32% | +40.37 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.03% | -4.22 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.59% | +74.28 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.57% | -71.66 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.89% | -111.51 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.75% | -94.02 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.46% | -58.18 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.64% | -80.87 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.18% | -22.69 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.18% | -22.92 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.42% | -52.69 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.39% | -49.30 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.89% | -111.56 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.58% | -72.36 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.54% | -68.09 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.15% | -144.90 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.93% | -117.21 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.83% | -104.17 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.77% | -221.57 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.80% | -100.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.26% | -157.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.74% | +92.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.18% | -148.19 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -100.00% | -12548.35 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.34% | -293.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.18% | -148.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.52% | -191.25 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -7.12% | -893.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.13% | +142.04 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.29% | -161.49 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.35% | +43.85 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.07% | +9.39 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.77% | -347.21 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -3.20% | -401.69 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.15% | -18.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.59% | +74.28 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.07% | -133.78 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.02% | -127.86 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.01% | +1.70 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.04% | +5.00 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.44% | -306.20 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.19% | +274.21 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +0.33% | +41.53 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.26% | +157.61 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.82% | +102.44 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.99% | +124.82 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.72% | +215.77 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.14% | +143.51 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.89% | +112.02 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.62% | -78.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.95% | +118.97 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.47% | -59.11 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.27% | +284.96 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.46% | -57.97 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.75% | +94.23 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +6.51% | +816.82 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.43% | -179.81 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.62% | +328.74 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.71% | -89.63 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.34% | -42.39 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.91% | +239.85 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.39% | +425.81 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.76% | +94.80 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.03% | -4.22 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.73% | +91.26 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.09% | +11.26 |
Clearly, there is a weak uptrend here. Like the worm climbing a greased pole, every two centimeters progress sees a one centimeter (or more) slide back down the pole as the worm rests. Still, higher highs and higher lows does constitute the definition of an uptrend however short term that trend may be.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Profits Taken, Market Turns
The runup from March took a breather last week just as we expected it woould. And, the character of the profit-taking that took place tells us a lot about just how healthy the market really is.
As the market digests last week's losses, we get to see which parts of the market are able to resist the selling pressure best and which ones are not. In Tuesday's market, many of the sectors which were strong during the preceding advance were still strong on a relative basis. This suggests that the current correction does not represent a major rotation between sectors just yet. On the other hand, sector rotation is a key aspect of a long-lived bull market, so we do expect to see some of that in the future if this uptrend is to remain on firm footing.
Tuesday's session showed that traders brought their buy lists to work:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.55% | +68.72 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.66% | +82.10 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.19% | +148.73 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.20% | -149.72 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.67% | +83.52 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.81% | +101.57 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.66% | +206.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.70% | -212.17 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.02% | -2.36 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.07% | -8.72 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.36% | +169.13 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.32% | +289.80 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.14% | -142.29 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.69% | -335.51 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.30% | +162.27 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.54% | +191.83 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.07% | +382.74 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.85% | -356.02 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.91% | +237.97 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.76% | +220.08 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.44% | +429.92 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.47% | -432.78 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.83% | +103.21 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.85% | +106.31 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.99% | +248.25 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.89% | -235.42 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.83% | -227.89 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.27% | -407.98 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.81% | -350.21 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.05% | -255.80 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +5.14% | +641.92 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.91% | -488.00 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.70% | +211.95 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.43% | +303.07 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.45% | -305.71 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.73% | +91.65 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.68% | -84.31 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.49% | -60.62 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.56% | -69.78 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.60% | -75.17 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.11% | -13.52 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.93% | -241.41 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.56% | -70.14 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.78% | -97.30 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.70% | -86.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.14% | -142.29 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.34% | -167.02 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.47% | -432.78 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.20% | -149.72 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.70% | -212.17 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.89% | -235.42 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.69% | -335.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.85% | -356.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.95% | -118.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.51% | -188.51 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.18% | -147.85 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.36% | -169.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -2.31% | -288.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.20% | -399.49 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.30% | +162.51 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.89% | -111.65 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.99% | -248.17 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.19% | -148.05 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.02% | -127.80 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.75% | -218.26 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.20% | +149.40 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.25% | -405.24 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.45% | -305.71 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.46% | -432.40 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.15% | -144.13 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.14% | +17.69 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.27% | +33.85 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.59% | +73.43 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.12% | +15.24 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.14% | -17.57 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.67% | -208.35 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.44% | +429.92 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.19% | +148.73 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.66% | +206.83 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.99% | +248.25 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.32% | +289.80 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.07% | +382.74 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.69% | +85.75 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.06% | +257.35 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +1.62% | +201.61 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.43% | +178.14 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.10% | +261.95 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.00% | +374.62 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.50% | -187.53 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.93% | +116.45 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.28% | +34.65 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.17% | +146.01 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.06% | +132.31 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.90% | +237.67 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.22% | -152.59 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.26% | +282.09 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.43% | +303.07 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +3.59% | +447.51 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.23% | +153.85 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Sunday, May 25, 2008
The Bankrupt Concept of Free Markets
Definition of cornering a market: "to purchase enough of the available supply of a commodity or stock in order to manipulate its price."
--Investor's ABC
Commodity index funds ("indicers") have been buying up baskets of commodities, including food and energy, in order to take advantage of increased demand for real goods and have now reached the stage of cornering many of these markets. Normally, this kind of speculation is prevented by position size limits set by the government. For example, the Hunt brothers illegally cornered the Silver market in 1980, sending Silver prices soaring to $50/ounce. Once the government stepped in to break up the corner, Silver prices then plunged to less than $3/ounce. There were quite a few speculators who found that, although they had profits on paper, they were not able to sell on the way down. They got crushed, along with their brokers.
The moral of the story: those who participate in trying to corner a market take on exceptional risks. When the government determines that a corner exists, it will be crushed without mercy as it is antithetical to society as a whole. In other words, markets are not free for a very good reason.
Are things different now? Indicers are the big money interests who often get their way in a capitalistic system. Like the process by which laws are created in Congress and the Presidency, these big money speculators have essentially bribed the government to allow them unlimited position sizes in the markets. Thus, for example, they have bought up the entire Wheat crop for the next two years. Now, if the richest man in America, for example, had decided to illegally buy up, say, all of the milk supply in the US and bribe Congress and the bush in the White House to look the other way, he could certainly do it with his gargantuan wealth. But, consumers, faced with the prospect of paying hundreds of dollars per gallon of milk (which the rich guy would certainly try to charge to maximize returns for his shareholders), would quickly rebel and find ways to smuggle milk into the country to break the market.
Unfortunately, when the time comes when indicers have bought up all of the food on the planet, and all of the oil, there won't be another source from which to smuggle to consumers. At some point, something has to give and we suspect decisions would ultimately be made at the point of a gun pointed at those in Washington who let bribery outweigh integrity. Of course, the politicians know this and will certainly put on a show of indignation and outrage that the big money has been allowed to get away with this scheme (ignoring the campaign contributions they willingly took before the scandal broke, of course). This is the ultimate proof of the bankruptcy of the ideal of free markets which so many cling to with such fervor. And, another reminder that the US has the best form of government money can buy.
The stock market did exactly what it needed to do Friday, as it did for the week. That is, drop hard:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -3.91% | -507.17 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -3.89% | -504.69 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -7.63% | -990.99 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +8.10% | +1052.00 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -3.46% | -449.95 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -3.57% | -463.23 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -7.17% | -931.26 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +7.59% | +985.83 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.99% | -388.44 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.60% | -337.38 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.35% | -304.67 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.47% | -580.72 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.36% | +306.83 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.61% | +599.09 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.25% | -292.11 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.35% | -305.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.06% | -657.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.88% | +633.28 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -3.64% | -472.66 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -3.62% | -470.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -7.41% | -961.83 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.74% | +1005.12 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.85% | -369.62 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.88% | -373.87 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -6.14% | -797.62 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.26% | +812.84 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.05% | +136.94 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.94% | +121.93 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.74% | +95.89 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.39% | +310.46 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -5.30% | -688.41 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +4.50% | +584.35 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -5.05% | -655.39 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -9.94% | -1291.23 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +9.34% | +1212.47 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.44% | -706.46 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.08% | -9.90 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.08% | +10.28 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.03% | +3.82 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.02% | -132.73 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.06% | +7.82 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +3.87% | +502.56 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +4.03% | +522.86 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +3.59% | +465.69 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.92% | +378.96 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.36% | +306.83 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.31% | +300.53 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +7.74% | +1005.12 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +8.10% | +1052.00 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +7.59% | +985.83 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.26% | +812.84 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.61% | +599.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.88% | +633.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +7.60% | +987.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +6.31% | +819.63 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +6.32% | +821.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +7.00% | +908.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.42% | +574.11 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +5.35% | +695.04 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +9.55% | +1239.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +4.34% | +563.81 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +8.80% | +1143.25 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +11.83% | +1536.56 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.38% | +178.68 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +7.52% | +976.85 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +4.11% | +533.18 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +10.46% | +1358.80 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +9.34% | +1212.47 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +8.18% | +1062.75 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.37% | +47.67 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +4.12% | +534.65 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +2.43% | +315.70 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +4.73% | +614.78 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +8.57% | +1113.09 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +4.20% | +544.85 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +12.55% | +1629.55 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -7.41% | -961.83 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -7.63% | -990.99 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -7.17% | -931.26 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -6.14% | -797.62 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -4.47% | -580.72 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.06% | -657.02 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -6.89% | -894.90 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -6.32% | -820.24 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -7.18% | -932.78 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -7.65% | -994.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.03% | -523.23 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -4.42% | -573.79 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -8.91% | -1156.70 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -4.26% | -553.04 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -8.05% | -1045.68 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -10.97% | -1424.41 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.45% | -188.58 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -7.27% | -943.52 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.58% | -594.45 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -8.98% | -1166.78 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -9.94% | -1291.23 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -7.69% | -998.85 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.41% | -53.71 |
Now, if the people demand that the indicers disgorge their commodity corners, it might actually cause a flood of cash into buying stocks in the stock market as those funds seek a happier home. Bears beware!
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Thursday, May 22, 2008
Energy Crisis
"Our country's dependence on others for energy sources is an urgent national security issue and this problem needs to be immediately and aggressively addressed! In fact, the U.S. needs to quickly develop both new transportation-based (for cars, trains, buses, planes, etc.) and fixed-based (for electricity used in homes, businesses and industry) energy sources to prevent US and global economic chaos."HT3R Project Office, University of Texas Permian Basin
While the political morons in Washington blame OPEC for not pumping enough oil, speculators continue to push oil prices to the sky. What's sad about the whole situation is that it was so preventable if the country had only learned the lessons the environmentalists had been trying to teach since the 'Sixties. There is no sustainability in the mad, incessant draining of fossil fuels from the planet. Instead, we ignored the handwriting on the wall in the Arab Oil Embargoes of the 'Seventies and the various unsuccessful, but eventually successful, bombings of the World Trade Center and are now paying a very high price for dumb ignorance and pure laziness.
As the economy moves closer to the brink of total collapse, we observe that the markets are not the answer, they are part of the problem. An economy built on cheap energy cannot continue to grow with energy costs shooting higher month after month. It's like watching a train wreck in slow motion. But, we have to be content with the realization that people do eventually make good decisions in crises. And, we are in the midst of an energy crisis right now.
You wouldn't know it from watching the stock market. After a half-thousand-point plunge this week, the Dow Industrials treaded water sideways on Thursday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.19% | +24.43 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.04% | -5.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.15% | -18.35 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.02% | -2.38 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.22% | +27.73 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.10% | +12.65 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.07% | +8.61 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.02% | -2.20 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.39% | +48.70 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.30% | +37.85 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.67% | +84.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.49% | +188.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.59% | -73.89 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.11% | -139.47 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.62% | +78.51 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.72% | +90.19 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.29% | +162.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.86% | -108.78 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.25% | +30.91 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.35% | +44.46 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.13% | +16.44 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.12% | -15.69 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.32% | +40.60 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.24% | +30.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.51% | +64.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.41% | -52.05 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.50% | -188.84 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.06% | -133.92 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.30% | -163.25 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.07% | -134.29 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +2.62% | +329.70 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.82% | -229.91 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.72% | +91.32 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.70% | +87.99 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.95% | -119.32 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.83% | +104.14 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.18% | -148.55 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.65% | -82.39 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.60% | -75.24 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.09% | -137.67 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.28% | -34.86 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.22% | -27.13 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.07% | +8.19 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.05% | -5.97 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.22% | -28.04 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.59% | -73.89 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.60% | -76.23 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.12% | -15.69 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.02% | -2.38 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.02% | -2.20 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.41% | -52.05 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.11% | -139.47 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.86% | -108.78 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.55% | -69.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.53% | -67.23 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.26% | -33.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.03% | -4.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.39% | -174.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.36% | -171.41 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.38% | +47.83 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.23% | -155.42 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.22% | -153.69 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.60% | -201.56 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.55% | -195.28 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.07% | +8.95 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.23% | +280.86 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.99% | +125.24 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.95% | -119.32 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.99% | -125.28 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.67% | -84.72 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.13% | -16.31 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.76% | -95.88 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.02% | -254.52 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.37% | -172.78 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.44% | -181.53 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.81% | -102.30 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.13% | +16.44 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.15% | -18.35 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.07% | +8.61 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.51% | +64.50 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.49% | +188.11 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.29% | +162.10 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.61% | +77.17 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.06% | +7.85 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.85% | -106.95 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.30% | -37.92 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.82% | +229.76 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.46% | +57.57 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.03% | -129.32 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.93% | +117.79 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.60% | +201.15 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.53% | +192.22 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.46% | +184.52 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.11% | -14.16 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.00% | -252.06 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.40% | -176.54 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.70% | +87.99 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.12% | +140.82 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.68% | +85.83 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Fed Loses Credibility on Inflation
The Federal Reserve has lost all of its inflation-fighting credibility.
With inflation in the US now hitting 12%, there's no reason to hide the fact that the government inflation numbers are bogus. In fact, when the Consumer Price Index was released last week, traders in the pits donned chef's hats, a symbolic gesture indicating that they knew the numbers were "cooked."
And, it should not have been a surprise that this would happen, either. The Fed publishes a weekly summary of the markets called Monetary Trends which contains a chart showing exactly what inflation rate the Fed is targeting in setting its overnight rate. Last year, before the credit crisis hit, we warned that the Fed was far too tight in its monetary policy. The chart at the time showed that the Fed was targeting a negative inflation rate of between -1 and -2 per cent. Last year's deflationary monetary policy tipped the economy over into a recession (we believe the Fed deliberately caused the recession for reasons we've explained before). Now, with the government CPI inflation rate only showing a rate of about four per cent, the real inflation rate, as calculated using the government's own methodology (up until the Reagan Administration ordered the CPI lie), is hitting 12%. Corroborating that inflation estimate is the Fed's own chart, which shows that their overnight interest rate is now consistent with a 12% inflation target for monetary policy.
Most apologists for the government claim that before workers start demanding their pay be increased to account for their loss of purchasing power due to inflation, the inflation rate will come down. In fact, that may be the case as workers appear to be far more concerned that they may lose their jobs. However, should the economy recover from the current recession, inflation could explode higher, requiring the Fed to clamp down as hard as it did in the late 'Seventies. That would send interest rates soaring and create a double-dip recession next year.
In any case, the government lies about low inflation are causing rippling waves of inflation to sweep over the economy and influence Fed policy in ways which distort economic indicators. For example, because the government inflation estimate is too low, GDP figures show the economy is growing, albeit at a very low rate. However, if the government told the truth about inflation, it would be obvious that the economy is in a deep recession right now and further action would clearly be indicated. As it is, policymakers think that the pitifully-poor stimulus payments will turn the economy up out of recession. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Stocks continued to pull back on Wednesday as the market appears to be starting to understand the true plight of the economy:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.77% | -227.49 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.78% | -228.74 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.57% | -458.46 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.60% | +461.39 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.58% | -203.13 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.73% | -221.53 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.42% | -438.40 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.49% | +447.65 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.46% | -186.97 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.33% | -171.07 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.16% | -149.33 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.80% | -358.68 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.14% | +146.73 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.28% | +292.33 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.23% | -158.17 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.42% | -182.77 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.80% | -358.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.45% | +314.77 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.03% | -260.66 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.21% | -283.81 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.45% | -571.42 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.47% | +574.02 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.54% | -197.48 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.49% | -191.41 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.34% | -428.42 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.33% | +427.62 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.40% | +179.95 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.34% | -43.77 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.18% | -23.70 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.17% | +149.60 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -2.70% | -345.81 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.99% | +255.78 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.25% | -159.95 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.04% | -389.77 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.57% | +329.95 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.41% | -308.89 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.02% | +2.78 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.24% | -30.30 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.14% | -17.56 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.44% | -57.03 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.11% | -13.87 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.16% | +277.45 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.60% | +205.55 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.64% | +210.04 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.90% | +243.91 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.14% | +146.73 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.21% | +155.34 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +4.47% | +574.02 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.60% | +461.39 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.49% | +447.65 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +3.33% | +427.62 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.28% | +292.33 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.45% | +314.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.24% | +415.96 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.80% | +487.16 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +3.13% | +401.62 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +2.66% | +341.12 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.00% | +257.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.66% | +469.96 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +5.73% | +734.81 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.35% | +301.55 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.59% | +460.24 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.95% | +635.20 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.47% | +188.82 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.00% | +384.84 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.79% | +357.58 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.02% | +644.63 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.57% | +329.95 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.99% | +512.23 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.10% | +12.70 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.05% | +134.20 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.00% | +128.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.20% | +282.35 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.07% | +393.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.63% | +336.97 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.27% | +162.99 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -4.45% | -571.42 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.57% | -458.46 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.42% | -438.40 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.34% | -428.42 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.80% | -358.68 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.80% | -358.58 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.15% | -404.24 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.14% | -402.53 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.46% | -316.19 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -3.31% | -424.35 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.97% | -252.81 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -2.34% | -299.94 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.27% | -676.49 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.46% | -315.79 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.62% | -464.85 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.99% | -640.40 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.43% | -182.91 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.46% | -443.51 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.50% | -320.82 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -5.56% | -712.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.04% | -389.77 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.95% | -506.15 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.43% | -54.78 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Peak Oil
Stocks continued the selloff they started on Monday as oil heads toward significant Fibonacci resistance just above current prices. Our intraday indicators which flashed sell signals on stocks indicated a temporary bottom may already be in place for a brief rebound before the down cycle ends next week. This down cycle may end when oil hits that fib resistance price, most likely next week.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.53% | -199.48 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.44% | -186.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.91% | -379.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.94% | +382.72 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.86% | -112.42 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.84% | -109.27 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.65% | -214.71 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.67% | +217.93 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.70% | -90.59 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.51% | -66.48 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.54% | -70.59 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.60% | -77.92 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.30% | +38.75 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.89% | +115.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.38% | -49.58 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.37% | -47.56 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.57% | -73.85 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.88% | +114.36 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.70% | -90.96 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.77% | -99.71 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.56% | -203.50 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.59% | +206.58 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.15% | -20.11 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.11% | -14.82 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.17% | +22.60 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.47% | +61.19 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.03% | +134.63 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.52% | +327.70 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.31% | +300.95 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.69% | +220.08 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.71% | -483.74 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +2.92% | +380.21 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.80% | -364.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -5.60% | -729.09 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.54% | +722.14 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.90% | -247.10 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.52% | +68.00 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.30% | +39.68 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.22% | +28.08 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.04% | +4.93 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.14% | +18.81 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.72% | +93.80 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.51% | +196.60 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.09% | +141.63 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.21% | -27.21 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.30% | +38.75 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.44% | +56.97 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.59% | +206.58 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.94% | +382.72 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.67% | +217.93 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.47% | +61.19 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.89% | +115.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.88% | +114.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.12% | +275.59 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.80% | +103.89 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.24% | +161.05 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.04% | +135.29 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.47% | +60.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.06% | -7.57 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.30% | -168.89 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.97% | +256.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.54% | +331.20 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.07% | +530.69 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.20% | +26.28 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.09% | +402.91 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.69% | -220.07 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.41% | +314.17 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.54% | +722.14 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.97% | +387.40 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.67% | -87.09 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.70% | +221.37 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.84% | +109.98 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.88% | +244.96 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.73% | +486.14 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.87% | +243.84 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +7.04% | +917.18 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.56% | -203.50 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.91% | -379.38 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.65% | -214.71 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.17% | +22.60 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.60% | -77.92 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.57% | -73.85 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.64% | -213.77 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.98% | -258.14 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.57% | -205.07 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.94% | -122.53 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.23% | -29.79 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.73% | -94.64 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.02% | +132.77 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.26% | -294.12 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.41% | -313.99 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.26% | -554.39 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.30% | -38.87 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.94% | -252.87 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.44% | +188.12 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.23% | -289.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -5.60% | -729.09 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -2.90% | -378.00 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.62% | +80.68 |
Certainly, the index option players were not that bearish on the market, looking upon the dip as an opportunity to buy calls. Still, they ended the day spending a few cents more on puts than calls, so it is not a danger signal just yet. In fact, it reinforces our idea that the "eye" of the hurricane is still in place, which would allow a drift sideways overall for some time to come.
As far as peak oil is concerned, according to an article in the Financial Times, the US may have peaked in its imports of oil. With falling demand, increased energy conservation and alternative fuels becoming viable competitors, total imports of foreign oil into the US are likely to have passed their highs.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, May 19, 2008
Eye of the Hurricane
Hurricanes are very destructive storms which contain within themselves a peculiar quiet zone, the "eye," at their centers. Those who come out of their shelters after the storm has died down and assume the storm has abated have often found that the storm was only biding its time to return later with as much destructive force as it had before. Such is the analog in nature to the stock market and this bear market rally.
The stock market is in the "eye" of the storm right now. However, Monday's rally and reversal may have found the eyewall approaching rapidly:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.32% | +41.36 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.47% | +61.08 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.95% | +123.47 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.84% | -108.83 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.10% | +12.39 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.27% | +34.58 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.47% | +60.96 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.49% | -64.14 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.00% | -0.31 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.05% | +5.89 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.22% | -29.14 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.70% | -90.74 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.50% | +64.69 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.33% | +42.52 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.41% | -53.62 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.03% | +3.51 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.47% | -61.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.04% | -5.60 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.61% | -79.52 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.72% | -93.49 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.07% | -139.04 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.99% | +128.24 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.31% | -39.68 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.37% | -48.57 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.86% | -111.67 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.16% | +21.25 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.79% | -102.71 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.44% | +56.71 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.46% | +60.28 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.33% | +42.27 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.64% | -83.73 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.69% | +89.44 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.79% | -102.25 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.50% | -64.46 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.78% | +101.87 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.53% | -69.14 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.13% | +16.97 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.23% | +29.37 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.17% | +21.66 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.02% | +2.46 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +14.08 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.78% | +101.48 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.37% | -47.73 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.45% | -58.74 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.38% | +49.92 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.50% | +64.69 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.21% | +26.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.99% | +128.24 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.84% | -108.83 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.49% | -64.14 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.16% | +21.25 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.33% | +42.52 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.04% | -5.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.57% | -74.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.69% | +89.68 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.22% | -28.97 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.36% | +47.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.72% | +92.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.92% | +119.97 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.57% | +204.25 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.15% | +19.24 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.16% | +150.94 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.87% | +113.15 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.78% | -100.71 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.27% | -164.42 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.35% | -304.68 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.15% | -19.34 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.78% | +101.87 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.09% | +142.18 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.74% | -225.81 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.13% | -17.25 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.38% | +48.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.56% | +72.76 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.48% | -62.44 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.32% | +41.91 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.48% | -62.04 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.07% | -139.04 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.95% | +123.47 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.47% | +60.96 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.86% | -111.67 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.70% | -90.74 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.47% | -61.45 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.26% | +33.23 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.51% | +65.62 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.04% | -4.81 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.26% | -163.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.00% | -129.34 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.65% | -84.58 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.50% | -194.36 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.25% | +32.87 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.59% | -76.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.64% | -83.55 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.90% | +117.29 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.64% | +83.41 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.28% | +295.64 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.65% | +84.55 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.50% | -64.46 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.25% | -162.56 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.26% | +293.71 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, May 18, 2008
US Inflation Soars to 11.6%
Anyone arguing that the government is telling the truth about inflation is a fool, a liar, or both.
A trend we've observed over the past couple of decades has been an increasingly obvious tendency for the US government to lie to achieve its objectives. From WMDs to economic statistics, the government has "come out of the closet" and simply produced bald-faced reports which are filled with ever more transparent lies.
Last week, the latest in a long line of incredible (meaning, unbelievable) statements was produced by those inveterate liars at the US Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics: the Consumer Price Index. The liars in government will never tell us the true inflation rate. Since the politicians started mandating that government agencies lie about the true inflation rate, radical changes to the way the CPI is calculated have produced a much lower number than the real number. If we used the methodology for calculating CPI inflation last used in 1983, the current inflation rate is 11.6%. After 1983 and before further changes in 1998, the current rate would be 7.3%. The government liars now tell us the rate is just "4.0%."
Inflation is clearly out of control right now. For example, the government tells us that the price of gasoline fell in April. The wholesale price of gasoline, in fact, rose 28.32¢ from the end of March to the end of April, constituting a rise of 10.8% in just one month, based upon actual prices recorded in nearby gasoline futures traded in the open market. Where is the reality in the government report? Does the government actually want the public to disbelieve everything they say? It certainly looks that way. It's so obvious that the government is deliberately lying that we seriously wonder what strategy it is that they're following.
But, the stock market continues to believe those reports. Or, does it really believe them? The obvious answer that the stock market rallied on the "low inflation number" may not be the correct answer. Perhaps, the real answer is that the government itself is buying stocks to reflate Wall Street firms and to boost trader confidence. It certainly wouldn't be the first time that the government has gone on a concerted campaign in the stock market to boost share prices to bolster confidence.
Evidence, however, that the government is at work boosting stocks is circumstantial, technical evidence. Stocks have been rallying on extremely low volume, which means there was little force pushing the market higher. And, the rally failed to push the larger stocks, ones which it would have taken substantially more money to move, even back to their May Day highs. That's very suspicious and suggests that the explanation of government manipulation in the stock market is viable. Of course, since no one involved in this manipulation would ever admit it, we'll probably never know for sure. Still, a few others have noticed that this market is rising on fumes, not real buying power. Some say it's the central banks who are buying. And, if we look at the money the Fed has been injecting into the market, it's well over three times the normal amount and has been this high for exactly as long as this rally in the stock market has been in progress. Certainly, it's plausible to suggest that the excess cash is going directly into the stock market, but the evidence only points to the criminal being seen at the scene of the crime. There are no eyewitnesses.
The market has come a long way on fumes, and Friday was a typical day in the life of a government-driven market:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.05% | -5.86 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.32% | -41.94 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.15% | -19.47 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.16% | +20.77 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.14% | +17.89 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.11% | +13.67 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.20% | +25.46 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.24% | -30.82 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.52% | +67.31 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.47% | +60.71 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.12% | -15.55 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.10% | -13.60 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.01% | +1.85 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.49% | +64.12 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.30% | -39.50 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.54% | +70.66 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.29% | -37.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.40% | +52.54 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.01% | +1.54 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.08% | +10.40 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.12% | +15.79 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.11% | -13.85 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.29% | +37.60 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.39% | +50.26 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.66% | +85.14 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.65% | -84.49 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.86% | +111.31 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.67% | +347.07 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.58% | +334.59 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.41% | +313.62 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -5.36% | -695.88 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +5.07% | +658.09 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.46% | +60.36 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.05% | +136.44 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.00% | -130.42 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.10% | -142.78 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.41% | -53.54 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.17% | -22.00 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.24% | -31.79 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.13% | -17.19 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.02% | +3.13 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.11% | -14.49 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.08% | +10.50 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.23% | -29.45 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.01% | +1.85 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.37% | +48.21 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.11% | -13.85 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.16% | +20.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.24% | -30.82 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.65% | -84.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.49% | +64.12 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.40% | +52.54 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.12% | -146.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.43% | -56.09 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.52% | -67.84 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.37% | +47.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.89% | +115.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.04% | -5.71 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.02% | -391.76 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.46% | -59.41 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.35% | +175.84 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +2.38% | +309.51 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.51% | -66.29 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.06% | -7.25 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -5.24% | -681.45 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.90% | +117.15 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.00% | -130.42 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.39% | -50.43 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.62% | -209.92 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.94% | -121.55 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.59% | -206.04 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.30% | -298.68 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.52% | -327.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.94% | -122.72 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.02% | -133.10 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.12% | +15.79 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.15% | -19.47 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.20% | +25.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.66% | +85.14 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.10% | -13.60 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.29% | -37.72 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.27% | +35.72 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.19% | +25.15 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.37% | +48.28 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.09% | +141.65 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.14% | -148.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.25% | -31.94 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.82% | +366.97 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.45% | +58.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.08% | -269.85 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.36% | -307.04 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.46% | +60.10 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.61% | +78.70 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +5.39% | +700.52 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.23% | -160.40 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.05% | +136.44 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.20% | +25.35 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.40% | +182.18 |
As long as the government thinks it's necessary, they will continue to push stock prices higher. The problems come when they stop buying.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Thursday, May 15, 2008
Complacency Reigns
Despite the fact that most stocks have remained closer to their lows of the last year than to their highs, the trading crowd has driven the volatility index, VIX, down to levels last seen in October 2007. Yes, right at the all-time highs on many stock market indices. A few soothing weeks of rebound is all it takes to put the crowd in a relaxed state of complacency. On the day before May options are due to expire, here's how the market settled the day:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.73% | +94.28 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.89% | +115.02 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.61% | +207.91 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.69% | -217.93 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.05% | +134.87 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.23% | +158.46 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.38% | +307.06 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.37% | -305.63 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.23% | +158.63 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.22% | +157.73 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.03% | +133.09 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.70% | +219.74 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -107.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.02% | -260.80 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.94% | +121.44 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.20% | +26.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.98% | +255.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.04% | -262.79 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.72% | +222.41 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.75% | +225.87 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.89% | +502.01 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.77% | -486.42 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.18% | +152.26 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.28% | +164.98 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.48% | +320.33 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.52% | -324.50 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.06% | +7.62 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.44% | +444.11 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.42% | +441.69 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.11% | +272.50 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.88% | -500.13 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +4.17% | +537.97 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.05% | +264.37 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.96% | +769.06 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.78% | -745.73 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.10% | +141.81 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.91% | +117.14 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.56% | +71.73 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.53% | +68.54 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.67% | +85.90 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.08% | +10.89 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.54% | -198.26 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.71% | -91.99 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.10% | -142.28 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.26% | -162.09 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -107.43 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.06% | -136.81 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.77% | -486.42 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.69% | -217.93 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.37% | -305.63 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.52% | -324.50 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.02% | -260.80 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.04% | -262.79 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.73% | -94.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.39% | -178.97 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.71% | -220.10 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.29% | -424.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.88% | -242.55 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.83% | -235.70 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.89% | -501.33 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.55% | -200.40 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.83% | -236.42 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -2.89% | -373.28 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.55% | +71.01 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.20% | -154.14 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.93% | -378.34 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.31% | -298.24 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.78% | -745.73 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -4.11% | -530.38 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.02% | +2.45 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.38% | -307.37 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.00% | -129.18 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.84% | -366.96 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -4.14% | -533.52 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -3.98% | -512.91 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.38% | -307.58 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.89% | +502.01 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.61% | +207.91 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.38% | +307.06 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.48% | +320.33 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.70% | +219.74 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.98% | +255.39 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.66% | +213.89 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.35% | +302.71 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.03% | +261.64 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.58% | +332.58 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.71% | +220.16 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +2.21% | +284.73 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +3.54% | +456.14 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.56% | +201.81 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.76% | +227.17 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +2.64% | +340.58 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.25% | -32.05 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.55% | +71.58 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.12% | +402.61 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.78% | +358.00 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.96% | +769.06 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +4.29% | +552.98 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.25% | -32.04 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Fairy Tales About Inflation
The US Government produced another in a long line of fairy tales about inflation again this month. The tooth fairy found a gas station where gasoline prices were actually going down in April, which was great news for consumers who are tired of paying double the price they paid just last year. Unfortunately, to find this gas station, consumers are going to have scramble down Alice in Wonderland's rabbit hole and haul the gas out in cans one at a time.
With no pretense of even trying to cover their tracks, government statisticians have simply gone bonkers with the numbers, making them up as their managers dictate. Want lower gas prices this month? No problemo, we just find the highest price gasoline reached in March anywhere in the country and the lowest price it reached anywhere in April and, viola! we now have a month-to-month decline in fuel costs to report for gasoline. Just what the pointy-haired bosses wanted. Repeat for other goods and report to the gullible public. The Fed talking heads can point to the new "tame" Consumer Price Index as evidence that recent outbreaks of inflation were simply hallucinations consumers sometimes think they see. Surely, they say, memories of prices they saw last week were higher, not lower, prices?
But, despite the "good news" the government provided, few traders actually believed it. In fact, the bond market priced in a higher, not lower, inflation premium into so-called TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). This indicates the market is seeing through government lies, finally.
Stocks initially rallied and, although some journalists were fooled into thinking the rally was the market's celebration due to the fictional inflation numbers, the huge reversal late in the day showed that the rally was simply short-covering before the next big leg down. The smart money has been selling all month long to the gullible trading public and is heading for the Hamptons for the summer:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.52% | +66.20 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.48% | +60.99 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.01% | +129.97 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.03% | -132.24 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.40% | +51.40 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.23% | +30.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.52% | +67.28 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.48% | -61.43 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.29% | +36.80 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.29% | +37.12 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.03% | +4.29 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.20% | +25.10 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.81 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.20% | -26.27 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.10% | -13.06 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.12% | -15.71 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +43.72 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.24% | -31.43 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.22% | -28.68 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.87% | -111.00 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.78% | +99.53 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.20% | +25.69 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.14% | +17.77 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.38% | +48.96 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.28% | -35.49 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.65% | -82.91 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.61% | -206.33 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.48% | -189.58 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.22% | -28.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.46% | +58.81 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.55% | -70.54 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.23% | +157.28 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.69% | +216.72 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.96% | -251.44 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.80% | +103.29 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.04% | +5.62 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.03% | -4.37 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.15% | +18.97 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.06% | +7.33 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.07% | -9.28 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.15% | +18.81 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.51% | -65.64 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.45% | -57.19 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.41% | -52.80 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.81 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.25% | +31.49 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.78% | +99.53 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.03% | -132.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.48% | -61.43 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.28% | -35.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.20% | -26.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +43.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.88% | -112.53 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.67% | -214.86 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.19% | -152.92 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.86% | -110.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.56% | +71.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.06% | +7.39 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.14% | +17.52 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.85% | -109.00 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.78% | -227.93 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.27% | -163.36 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.08% | -138.19 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.46% | -58.71 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.82% | +233.47 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.30% | -167.34 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.96% | -251.44 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.65% | -83.61 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.89% | -113.64 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.17% | -21.93 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.16% | -20.81 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.33% | -42.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.80% | -102.55 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.78% | -228.61 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.44% | -184.85 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.87% | -111.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.01% | +129.97 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.52% | +67.28 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.38% | +48.96 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.20% | +25.10 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.26% | -33.16 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.68% | +86.65 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.80% | +102.50 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.95% | +378.15 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.22% | +27.97 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.17% | -150.08 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.52% | -66.44 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.21% | +27.49 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.78% | +100.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.96% | +250.91 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.40% | +179.78 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.17% | +149.75 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.41% | +52.32 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.04% | -261.95 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.04% | +133.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.69% | +216.72 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.63% | +80.69 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.06% | +135.61 |
The latest data confirms that corresponding quarter-over-quarter (i.e., 2Q2008 compared to 2Q2007) withholding tax receipts into the US Treasury are declining on an absolute basis (in a non-recessionary environment they typically will grow at an average rate of 5%). This fact continues to confirm that the economy is in recession. This is absolute, unadjusted cash figures. It would be hard for the government to lie about how many dollars they are collecting, or seasonally-adjust them, or create "Birth/Death" adjustment, or convert them to owner-equivalent rent, et cetera. They represent the flow of tax money which is directly related both to employment and to hours worked and the picture is that of an economy in a recession which continues to worsen.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wal-Mart Warns
Wal-Mart reported earnings Tuesday, but confirmed the current recession is driving customers to bargain-hunt at the super-retailer. Traders seem to have been in denial about the current recession and the warning caused them to dump the stock in a typical display of irrational reaction (apparently, the crowd hates to be reminded of the facts). In fact, this may be another case of the sailor mistaking the harbormaster's tulip bulb for an onion and eating his whole estate. The value of tulip bulbs plummeted thereafter.
In the market, bearish divergence is the big theme of the month as the smart money sells and goes away:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.34% | -44.13 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.32% | -41.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.64% | -82.01 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.78% | +100.93 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.04% | -4.95 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.01% | -0.92 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -3.46 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.04% | -4.56 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.08% | -10.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.02% | -2.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.76% | +97.85 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.63% | +209.41 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.76% | -97.40 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.65% | -212.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.49% | +63.57 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.57% | +74.01 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.12% | +144.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.98% | -126.70 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.18% | +23.15 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.26% | +34.10 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.73% | +94.48 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.69% | -89.26 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.61% | +78.26 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.58% | +74.72 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.31% | +169.25 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.52% | -195.40 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.22% | -156.89 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.12% | -144.59 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.37% | -176.43 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.84% | -236.83 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +3.88% | +499.12 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.66% | -471.16 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.79% | +101.89 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.54% | +198.74 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.47% | -188.67 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.11% | -142.61 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.09% | -140.81 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.83% | -107.21 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.57% | -73.18 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.57% | -73.13 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.17% | -21.69 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.29% | -37.64 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.28% | +36.22 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.03% | +4.10 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.39% | -50.57 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.76% | -97.40 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.61% | -78.50 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.69% | -89.26 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.78% | +100.93 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.04% | -4.56 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.52% | -195.40 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.65% | -212.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.98% | -126.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.62% | -79.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -0.77% | -99.05 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -3.31% | -426.16 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.85% | -109.74 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.80% | -102.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.24% | -159.28 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.55% | -199.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.05% | -135.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.19% | -24.85 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +2.45% | +315.37 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.97% | +125.53 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.78% | -229.15 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.31% | -297.94 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.75% | -97.21 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.47% | -188.67 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.47% | -60.93 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.17% | +21.87 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.68% | -87.45 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.28% | -36.43 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.99% | +127.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.61% | -78.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.10% | +12.36 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.14% | -404.69 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.73% | +94.48 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.64% | -82.01 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.03% | -3.46 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.31% | +169.25 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.63% | +209.41 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.12% | +144.19 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.87% | +241.14 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.70% | +89.63 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.62% | -79.91 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.16% | +278.49 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.09% | +269.06 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.21% | +155.89 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.89% | +243.99 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.70% | +348.23 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.64% | +211.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.31% | -297.63 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.17% | -150.79 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.89% | +372.73 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.42% | +311.60 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.94% | +121.51 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.54% | +198.74 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.62% | +79.58 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.08% | -10.20 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, May 12, 2008
Dip Buyers Finding Bargains
Stock dip buyers flocked into the market Monday as they were determined not to let a good bargain in stocks pass them by. Having missed buying when the buying was good, they are convinced that the only path of the market is higher now. This crowd is showing definite signs of pathological behavior in the face of the evidence, but when has that ever stopped a mania? Eventually, the last of the dip-buyers will be invested. At that time, the market will resume its natural trend.
Indeed, the mania called the Oil market hit yet another record high on Monday. And, the top-pickers were quick to sell it. It seems that the oil bulls are playing a cat-and-mouse game. First, they push the market up on 7× leverage using the flimsiest of news excuses which has no real impact upon supply-and-demand fundamentals (any old news will do as long it is relates to an oil-producing country), then when the newsroom goes cold, they stop buying and take profits. The oil bears (an endangered species, but there are still a few of them around) then come in to put on short positions and ride the day-trend lower. That, in fact, happened Monday and energized the stock bounce. There is little doubt that the oil bulls will be back to force those shorts to buy at their expense on the next item of "news" that comes along.
It was reported on Friday that the highest percentage of traders (96%) in history were bullish on Oil. With that level of bullishness, the dips are going to be bought very quickly. The brave bears are definitely fighting a major uptrend in this market. Eventually, they will be proven correct as oil heads rapidly toward zero, but until the trend changes, trying to short a mania is just not healthy.
About the only thing that the government could do to stop the mania would be to impose restrictions on the oil market, such as requiring a larger deposit of margin funds to buy oil futures (right now, the buyer only has to put up 13% of the total value of the oil futures bought, four times the leverage of a regular 50%-margined stock investor). Or, it could impose position size limits on the number of contracts which can be held (the ICE Exchange on which oil trades is unregulated and has no position limits on speculators, unlike all other US futures exchanges). But, of course, the current bush Administration would never consider actually stopping a mania and helping consumers/taxpayers, despite the fact that, at current prices for energy, the entire so-called tax rebate -- all $168,000,000,000 of it -- is likely to end up being transferred straight into OPEC bank accounts. What's even more amazing is that even the Democrats running for President are not calling for this solution to the problem. Perhaps Obama isn't so much for change as he says he is? Perhaps he, too, is on the payroll of OPEC? Given the behavior of politicians, it wouldn't surprise us to find that every one of them is on the take from OPEC.
The exchanges claim that raising margin requirements would only drive speculators to foreign exchanges where the margin requirements are even less. However, that problem is easily solved the same way that money laundering is regulated: seize funds from speculators when they try to bring them back into the country. Also, many foreign countries cooperate with the IRS in sharing bank account information for US citizens. Just the threat of such action would dissuade the vast majority of speculators, most of whom already have "skeletons in the closet" they would prefer the IRS not discover concerning their foreign income (many try to shield their foreign income from taxes in sham foreign corporations).
Is this something unprecedented? No, it is not. In fact, 38 years ago, the runup in Silver was reversed by a set of rule changes which forced speculators to liquidate their positions. Silver fell from $50/ounce to less than $3/ounce. There's nothing that would prevent oil from undergoing a similar transformation today. Except for the fact that the politicians appear to be on the take from powerful oil interests.
Let's look at the hard evidence. Oil prices soared forty years ago as OPEC cutoff shipments of crude oil to the US. Alternative energy bills were passed by Congress and it appeared the nation could not afford to continue relying upon imported oil. But, in the years since, despite clear evidence that the country was vulnerable to oil terrorists from the MidEast (remember 9/11 terrorists were straight out of the MidEast), the government eliminated all of the alternative energy projects it had paid billions to create -- think the Raiders of the Lost Ark scene where the Ark is hidden in a cavernous warehouse. One of these projects we have knowledge of would have provided gasoline from waste plant material -- not food -- at just 75¢ per gallon! Yet, the project was not only shelved, but the reports produced from it were removed from public view (which, in itself, is a violation of Federal law). Although we don't claim to have a smoking gun, this can't have been an accident.
We are left with the conclusion that our government is the best government money can buy. And, foreign interests have bought it. Lock, stock and barrels of oil.
Market mania continued unabated on Monday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.02% | +130.43 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.98% | +124.95 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +236.49 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.05% | -261.77 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.11% | +140.86 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.10% | +140.33 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.27% | +289.08 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.13% | -271.94 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.96% | +122.98 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.85% | +108.54 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.62% | +206.26 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.92% | +372.16 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.64% | -208.98 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.04% | -387.42 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.75% | +222.61 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.20% | +279.87 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.04% | +387.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.86% | -492.61 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.81% | +230.96 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.83% | +232.66 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.51% | +447.75 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.54% | -451.38 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.16% | +147.77 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.20% | +152.70 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.25% | +287.20 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -226.52 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.55% | -69.87 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.21% | -26.94 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.26% | -33.18 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.49% | -62.69 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +1.00% | +126.93 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.05% | -133.59 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.16% | +147.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.46% | +313.55 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.68% | -213.87 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.61% | +204.69 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.15% | -19.29 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.17% | -21.47 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.18% | -22.44 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.09% | -12.05 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.19% | -24.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.74% | -221.97 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.95% | -121.17 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.01% | -128.56 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.11% | -142.05 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.64% | -208.98 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.64% | -208.92 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.54% | -451.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.05% | -261.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.13% | -271.94 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.78% | -226.52 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.04% | -387.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.86% | -492.61 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.27% | -162.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.03% | -259.34 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.37% | -302.44 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.12% | -397.50 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.46% | -440.90 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.62% | -333.77 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.50% | -191.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -3.77% | -480.73 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.38% | -430.38 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.39% | -177.51 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.52% | -321.61 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.64% | +81.73 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -4.65% | -592.73 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.68% | -213.87 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.41% | -307.37 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.58% | -201.26 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.45% | -184.83 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.23% | -29.13 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -2.19% | -278.61 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.36% | -300.35 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.50% | -64.36 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.03% | -3.74 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.51% | +447.75 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.86% | +236.49 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.27% | +289.08 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.25% | +287.20 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +2.92% | +372.16 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +3.04% | +387.28 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.69% | +88.29 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.84% | +234.92 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -100.00% | -12745.88 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.67% | +212.26 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +3.74% | +476.68 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.75% | +477.91 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.58% | +329.48 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.09% | -12.01 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +2.39% | +304.36 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.10% | +395.69 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.51% | +192.84 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.15% | +146.03 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.66% | -84.48 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +4.42% | +563.37 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.46% | +313.55 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +2.53% | +323.07 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.11% | +141.19 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Lies TV Tells You
Financial TV is entertaining (sometimes), but it often repeats falsehoods without correcting them. Reporters often fail to correct or contradict their guests with the facts, hoping not to create a confrontational situation. Of course, that means they are deluding their viewers with wrong information. However, it does keep the advertisers coming back, and that's what really counts in a capitalist system, even if it doesn't benefit the consumer of the service. The definition of recession is one of those falsehoods we constantly hear repeated in the financial media.
It's a lie to say that a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. It's a flat-out lie. The official definition of a recession is done by the Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research. That definition is:
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
Note that it is very possible that the start of the current recession will be dated as of December 2007, despite the fact that both the Fourth Quarter of 2007 and the First Quarter of 2008 showed small positive gains in GDP. Those gains were due to the fact that exports were a huge part of gains in GDP. The weak Dollar has boosted exports to the extent that export gains represent the largest part of growth in the economy, pushing consumers to the bottom of the list. In the First Quarter, consumer spending grew only 0.6% (we think the gain was due to rising food and gas prices as the government statisticians seem to be lying about the extent of the inflation problem), but exports grew at a 5.5% pace. And, what's even more worrisome is that private sector investment actually fell at a 2.5% pace excluding residential (the latter dropped through the floor). This suggests that looking only at GDP is not the right way to determine the question of whether or not a recession has started. We suspect that the Dating Committee will eventually point to December as the "peak of activity" in the economy. Almost every other measure of economic activity has been declining, with minor "bumps," since then. That puts the current recession at six months of age right now.
Those who are buying stocks based upon the idea that stocks discount the end of a recession by 6-9 months is yet another trap and a falsehood often repeated by brokers who want investors to pay their commissions now, rather than waiting.
That second falsehood is easily shown to be the case with a counterexample. The last recession ended in November 2001. The stock market continued lower for the next 17 months, with the final bear market low in the NYSE Composite Index being put in place in March 2003. So, for 17 months the economy was expanding out of the recession, yet stocks continued to fall. Anyone who bought in November 2001 at the end of the recession had to watch numbly as the value of the market dropped 36% over the next 17 months. Of course, there are probably a few investors who did just that. But, they would have had to wait until Christmas of 2003, or 25 months later, before their investment finally broke into the black.
Of course, those who started buying on the installment plan, putting a small amount into stocks in November 2001 and continuing to invest a little bit a month, did very well over the longer term. This "scale-in" strategy works very well for those whose investment horizon is measured on the scale of several years or decades.
Scaling-in involves buying peaks and valleys. Friday's market provided an opportunity for that strategy:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.94% | -120.90 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.64% | -82.22 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.28% | -164.81 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.28% | +165.09 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.69% | -88.84 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.18% | -23.11 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.44% | -56.35 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.42% | +53.79 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.65% | -83.01 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.57% | -73.13 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.01% | -1.69 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.34% | +43.22 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.32% | -40.64 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.11% | -14.34 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.03% | +3.22 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.29% | -37.68 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.19% | +152.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.67% | -86.35 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.36% | -46.90 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.39% | -50.51 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.20% | -25.91 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +25.54 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.08% | +10.86 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.06% | +7.56 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.22% | +28.89 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.51% | -66.05 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.52% | +195.98 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.19% | -24.52 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.13% | +16.77 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.21% | +26.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.38% | -48.42 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.29% | +36.88 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.32% | -40.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.09% | -11.29 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.67% | -86.65 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.87% | -112.13 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.37% | +47.47 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.11% | +14.47 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.04% | +5.04 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.04% | +4.64 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.22% | +27.78 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.68% | +87.05 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.55% | +71.37 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.54% | -69.15 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.32% | -40.64 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.38% | -49.53 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +25.54 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.28% | +165.09 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.42% | +53.79 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.51% | -66.05 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.11% | -14.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.67% | -86.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.11% | +142.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.59% | +76.08 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.22% | -28.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.08% | -9.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.89% | -114.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -0.65% | -84.22 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.35% | +301.73 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.02% | +131.31 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.43% | +55.49 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +0.73% | +93.51 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.98% | +126.51 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +1.08% | +139.01 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.44% | +56.70 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.90% | +115.70 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.67% | -86.65 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.83% | +106.50 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.06% | -264.55 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.65% | +83.06 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.74% | +95.84 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.43% | +184.49 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +1.45% | +186.90 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.82% | +362.93 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.34% | +429.48 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.20% | -25.91 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.28% | -164.81 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.44% | -56.35 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.22% | +28.89 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.34% | +43.22 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.19% | +152.73 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -2.35% | -302.21 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.25% | -32.35 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.52% | +66.92 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.10% | +12.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.45% | +58.16 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.94% | -249.12 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.12% | -143.90 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.78% | -100.73 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -0.62% | -80.19 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.84% | -108.01 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.55% | -70.59 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.93% | -119.42 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.22% | -157.44 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.09% | -11.29 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.93% | -119.24 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.92% | +117.84 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Investors Overly-Bullish
Crowd sentiment, as measured by the AAII Sentiment Survey, shows that they are just about as bullish today as they were back in mid-October, just before the market tumbled. Although the short term traders have turned bearish on this week's dip, that longer term sentiment measure suggests that another leg down in stocks is setting up. "Sell in May and go away" is looking better and better by the day, despite Thursday's pitiful bounce:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.41% | +52.43 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.09% | -11.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.10% | +13.14 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.18% | +22.46 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.26% | +32.94 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.25% | -32.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.53% | -68.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.54% | +69.57 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.53% | +67.33 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.70% | +89.81 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.25% | +31.48 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.71% | +91.51 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.15% | +19.39 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.17% | -21.38 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.46% | +58.68 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.21% | +26.86 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.16% | -19.92 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.49% | +62.22 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.52% | +66.52 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.75% | +96.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.36% | +45.70 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.47% | -60.13 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.76% | +97.15 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.66% | +84.89 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.57% | +201.11 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.07% | -137.37 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.68% | +86.92 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.98% | +510.50 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.48% | +446.44 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.65% | +212.03 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.31% | -423.90 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +3.46% | +443.40 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.57% | +72.53 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.70% | +217.35 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.75% | -96.35 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.98% | -125.33 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.90% | +115.04 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.65% | +82.66 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.26% | +32.69 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.45% | +57.21 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.08% | +10.78 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.87% | -111.99 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.18% | -23.22 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.33% | -42.51 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.48% | -62.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.15% | +19.39 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.32% | -40.70 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.47% | -60.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.18% | +22.46 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +0.54% | +69.57 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.07% | -137.37 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.17% | -21.38 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.49% | +62.22 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.23% | +285.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.01% | -128.85 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.22% | -28.15 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.02% | -130.84 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.28% | +35.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.35% | -172.40 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.78% | -613.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.23% | +29.13 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.21% | +26.94 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +3.02% | +387.62 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.80% | -102.83 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.17% | -150.28 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.96% | -379.37 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +1.12% | +143.41 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -0.75% | -96.35 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.02% | -131.23 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.68% | +86.85 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.57% | -73.31 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.79% | -101.58 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.67% | -214.13 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.52% | -323.20 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.59% | -75.08 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.49% | -191.52 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.36% | +45.70 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.10% | +13.14 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -0.53% | -68.03 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.57% | +201.11 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.71% | +91.51 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.16% | -19.92 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.24% | +158.44 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.39% | +50.54 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.20% | +25.53 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.42% | +54.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.17% | +21.42 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.49% | +191.04 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +4.31% | +552.27 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.16% | -19.87 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.90% | -115.11 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.99% | -383.50 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.52% | +66.72 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.08% | +138.47 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +3.83% | +490.44 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.77% | -99.01 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.70% | +217.35 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.21% | +155.09 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.80% | +102.64 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Detailed Comments . . . .
Politics Blamed For Stock Selloff
Obama appears to be the Democrats' choice for a Presidential candidate after Tuesday's primary results were finally in early Wednesday. The stock market selloff was blamed on the idea that the Democrats are going to sweep both branches of government in the Fall, bringing with them huge increases in taxes.
Actually, we suspect the Republicans are going to keep the White House, but if the market is going to selloff because it hates higher taxes, so be it. Certainly, the technical indicators have been pointing toward a selloff. Those who believed the recession was almost over haven't been paying attention. The market screamed lower on Wednesday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.59% | -206.48 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.47% | -191.76 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.12% | -405.99 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.86% | +372.99 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.76% | -229.80 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.77% | -230.03 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.49% | -455.01 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.50% | +455.50 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.80% | -234.80 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.81% | -235.96 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.48% | -192.82 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.59% | -467.14 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.85% | +110.18 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.14% | +408.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.86% | -242.29 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.78% | -232.32 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.34% | -435.25 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.24% | +422.48 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.89% | -246.08 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.82% | -236.84 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.76% | -490.03 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.74% | +487.07 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.17% | -152.12 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.03% | -134.16 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.69% | -350.12 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.35% | +305.78 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.21% | +26.93 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.19% | -154.45 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.58% | -75.65 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.94% | -121.75 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +1.89% | +245.76 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.94% | -252.46 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.36% | -177.70 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.90% | -376.99 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.24% | +291.38 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.39% | -441.46 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.43% | +55.83 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.40% | +51.78 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.29% | +37.15 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.27% | +34.72 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.12% | +15.67 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.13% | +277.49 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.56% | +202.57 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.10% | +272.97 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.48% | +192.13 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.85% | +110.18 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.03% | +263.69 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.74% | +487.07 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.86% | +372.99 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.50% | +455.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.35% | +305.78 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.14% | +408.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.24% | +422.48 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +1.49% | +194.19 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.13% | +407.09 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.55% | +332.45 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +2.80% | +365.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.59% | +467.72 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.73% | +485.15 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +2.89% | +376.05 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.73% | +355.36 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.38% | +309.84 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +6.73% | +876.84 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +2.52% | +327.95 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.40% | +443.06 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.70% | +351.91 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.45% | +709.06 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.24% | +291.38 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.45% | +318.75 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.96% | +385.57 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.97% | +387.26 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.29% | +168.34 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.70% | +481.21 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +6.59% | +857.68 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.24% | +291.58 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +12.08% | +1572.53 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.76% | -490.03 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.12% | -405.99 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.49% | -455.01 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.69% | -350.12 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.59% | -467.14 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.34% | -435.25 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.61% | -470.32 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.09% | -402.11 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.32% | -301.51 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.06% | -268.49 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.47% | -582.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.82% | -497.86 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.97% | -386.68 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.75% | -357.43 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.41% | -183.47 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -6.55% | -853.34 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.81% | -365.79 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.46% | -450.41 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.82% | -366.96 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -5.38% | -700.34 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.90% | -376.99 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.16% | -412.03 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.78% | -362.60 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Crude Oil's Potential To Stop The Economy Dead
Crude oil's bubble expanded even more on Tuesday, exceeding $120/barrel, and threatening to stop the declining economy dead (Philip Gotthelf, in COMMODITY FUTURES FORECAST WEEKLY REPORT). Fundamentally, oil should be $40 per barrel and thrice the price is not only not sustainable, but it's guaranteeing a severe hangover once it crashes back to earth. Technically, the market is "close" to its bubblicious pattern high. Not that we're recommending shorting this market, but we suspect those who are buying oil stocks in expectation of "1000% profits" (as we've seen much spam persist in declaring) are going to see returns much closer to 0% unless they're lucky enough to find a greater fool to unload their shares upon.
Speaking of the declining economy, recent government fiction has purported to show an economy that might be recovering from a temporary slowdown rather than plunging into recession. Anyone who actually believes those government reports has been programmed by the central planners in Washington to buy stocks because that's what you do when a recession hits bottom. Of course, the government is lying and the best statistic we've seen that proves the point is to cut out all of the statistical lies and obfuscations and go directly to the heartbeat of the economy. That is to say, the withholding tax revenue being collected by the US Treasury Department. When people lose their jobs, they stop paying withholding tax. When people's hours are cut back, they pay less tax. Fortunately, the government reports how much money it's taking in on a daily basis and an enterprising soul, Matt Trivisonno, has taken on the job of collecting years' worth of daily tax data and charting the rate of change of tax revenue. His site is Withholding Taxes Chart and it shows that both the stock market and withholding taxes track each other very closely. The rate of change of withholding tax revenue is the key statistic Matt charts and it shows that it flattened out and started heading down in mid-2007. The latest data shows that it has fallen from an annual rate of change of almost 8% to below 5%. This kind of decline is similar to what was last seen in 2001 as the country was falling into the last recession.
Matt reports the data continues to show an economy in decline:
Lots of people are being thrown out of work and having their hours cut. The recession is deepening. While unemployment claims eased-up in mid April, it is likely to turn out to be only a blip. We may have had fewer layoffs, but lots more hour-cuts. That would explain why the withholding taxes continue to move down. And of course, the withholding numbers are not "massaged" at all like the unemployment numbers, so these are the numbers that I trust the most.
The lemmings were still boarding the Titanic on Tuesday as the dip in stocks was bought:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.40% | +51.29 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.47% | +60.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.88% | +113.77 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.97% | -126.07 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.88% | +114.45 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.92% | +118.84 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +228.87 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.83% | -237.70 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.77% | +100.15 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.70% | +91.38 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.43% | +55.60 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.04% | +135.35 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.11% | +14.41 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.02% | -132.55 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.81% | +104.75 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.82% | +105.88 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.51% | +195.31 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.74% | -225.39 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.99% | +127.94 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.62% | +80.01 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.97% | +255.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.81% | -234.92 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.80% | +103.91 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.68% | +88.68 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.01% | +260.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.94% | -252.14 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.26% | +162.99 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.78% | +230.40 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.36% | +176.26 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.42% | +54.12 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.64% | -82.53 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.63% | +82.25 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.55% | +200.99 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.80% | +362.90 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.12% | -275.39 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +0.75% | +97.32 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.72% | -93.44 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.32% | -41.13 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.32% | -41.97 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.64% | -83.45 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.06% | +7.81 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.71% | -91.48 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.37% | -47.56 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.99% | -128.39 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.92% | -119.87 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.11% | +14.41 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.87% | -112.82 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.81% | -234.92 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -0.97% | -126.07 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.83% | -237.70 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.94% | -252.14 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.02% | -132.55 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.74% | -225.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -2.00% | -259.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.55% | -201.57 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.14% | -147.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.70% | -349.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.50% | -194.76 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.55% | -201.34 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.09% | -400.14 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.03% | -133.01 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.74% | -95.44 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -1.13% | -146.20 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.36% | +46.13 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.86% | -111.71 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -5.01% | -649.31 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -1.24% | -160.60 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.12% | -275.39 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.14% | -277.41 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.38% | -48.74 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.12% | -145.56 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.39% | -50.98 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.43% | -185.18 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.42% | -314.34 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.83% | -108.23 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.35% | -434.63 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.97% | +255.67 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.88% | +113.77 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.76% | +228.87 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.01% | +260.77 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.04% | +135.35 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.51% | +195.31 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.48% | +62.12 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.57% | +203.40 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.82% | +106.87 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.91% | +247.18 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.67% | +216.61 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.30% | +169.06 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +2.41% | +312.60 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.04% | +134.40 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.61% | +78.79 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +1.00% | +129.51 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.16% | -20.34 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.96% | +124.01 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +4.67% | +605.66 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +1.24% | +161.13 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.80% | +362.90 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +2.58% | +335.25 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.56% | +72.29 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
Rounding Up the Bulls
The market continued to work on its long, rounding top formation on Monday as it tries to drag in as much money from the sidelines as it can before it starts the next leg down in the current bear market:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.68% | -88.66 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.71% | -92.92 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.40% | -182.33 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.47% | +191.88 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.42% | -54.78 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.53% | -69.19 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.08% | -141.60 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.10% | +143.29 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.14% | -18.06 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.30% | -39.10 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.35% | -45.24 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.89% | -116.10 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.64% | +83.95 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.79% | +102.75 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.24% | -30.91 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.34% | -45.02 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.85% | -111.06 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.08% | +140.88 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.39% | -51.57 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.29% | -37.48 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.06% | -138.64 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.97% | +126.04 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.10% | -13.05 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.13% | +16.95 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.31% | -39.87 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.34% | +44.52 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.97% | +126.24 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.41% | +314.78 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.25% | +293.34 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.00% | +260.92 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.89% | -508.54 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +4.27% | +557.93 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.75% | -97.65 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.41% | -445.09 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.76% | +98.99 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.22% | -158.91 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.15% | +19.26 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.04% | +5.12 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.14% | +18.56 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +14.17 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.53% | +68.85 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.74% | +96.47 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.48% | +62.85 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.07% | +8.78 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.64% | +83.95 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.42% | +54.40 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.97% | +126.04 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.47% | +191.88 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.10% | +143.29 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +0.34% | +44.52 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.79% | +102.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.08% | +140.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +0.40% | +52.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.64% | +84.10 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.27% | +35.64 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.71% | +92.21 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.46% | +59.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.73% | +95.78 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.52% | -590.85 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.25% | +32.15 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.75% | +228.68 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +2.42% | +315.61 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.49% | +63.33 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.29% | +37.60 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -2.20% | -286.90 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.60% | +78.15 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.76% | +98.99 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.97% | +126.34 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.99% | +260.26 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.09% | -11.12 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.16% | -21.21 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.36% | -46.88 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -0.02% | -2.00 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.42% | -55.18 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +2.95% | +385.22 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.06% | -138.64 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.40% | -182.33 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -1.08% | -141.60 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -0.31% | -39.87 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -0.89% | -116.10 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.85% | -111.06 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.40% | -52.71 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.62% | -80.61 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.28% | +35.97 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.05% | +6.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.32% | -42.27 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.19% | +24.36 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +4.45% | +581.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.35% | -45.61 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.46% | -190.23 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.23% | -291.40 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.52% | -67.89 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.54% | -70.20 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +2.53% | +330.57 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.37% | -48.15 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -3.41% | -445.09 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.11% | -145.54 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.08% | -271.52 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, May 04, 2008
Still Playing the Public For Fools
The monthly piece of fiction the government calls the Employment Report is hardly fooling any of the people any of the time. Others have dissected the latest report which purports to show the economy recovering from recession (or, perhaps, never having entered one). Of course, anyone who actually reads the report can see right through it, so we won't spend effort here where others have already ripped the report to shreds. John Mauldin, for instance, did a good job of covering most of the issues here.
But, day-traders don't have time to read and loved the idea that the unemployment rate fell last month instead of rose. They bid the stock market up again. This is how the public is played for fools once again. The week ended with nice gains:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.29% | +166.34 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.59% | +204.43 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.98% | +383.85 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.82% | -363.15 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.13% | +146.30 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.45% | +186.65 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.72% | +350.23 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.78% | -358.48 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.14% | +147.43 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.45% | +186.75 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.67% | +85.86 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.60% | +206.78 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -107.21 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.89% | -244.27 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.62% | +80.53 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.86% | +111.17 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.73% | +223.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.13% | -274.00 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +3.40% | +438.61 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +3.44% | +442.94 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +7.24% | +933.38 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -7.15% | -921.28 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.83% | +107.25 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.77% | +99.68 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.66% | +214.00 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.95% | -251.37 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -2.33% | -300.52 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.88% | -500.61 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.72% | -480.03 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -3.08% | -397.38 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +6.00% | +774.13 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -6.51% | -839.84 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.22% | +286.07 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.91% | +761.53 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.55% | -586.65 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.63% | +339.61 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.23% | -29.48 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.46% | -59.68 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.34% | +44.42 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.92% | +118.35 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.23% | -29.46 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -3.56% | -458.89 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.28% | -164.54 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.19% | -153.28 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.90% | -116.01 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -107.21 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.80% | -103.12 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -7.15% | -921.28 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.82% | -363.15 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -2.78% | -358.48 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.95% | -251.37 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.89% | -244.27 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.13% | -274.00 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.66% | -213.78 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.18% | -280.43 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.78% | -616.80 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.75% | -225.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.38% | -177.28 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.82% | -234.72 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +6.60% | +851.39 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.42% | -53.91 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.01% | -646.29 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -5.90% | -760.50 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.35% | -173.69 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.72% | -221.17 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +3.91% | +504.57 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.28% | +36.31 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.55% | -586.65 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -4.65% | -598.93 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.32% | -299.25 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.83% | -235.35 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.30% | -167.05 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.98% | -255.38 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -4.10% | -529.02 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -4.12% | -531.00 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -7.22% | -930.96 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +7.24% | +933.38 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.98% | +383.85 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.72% | +350.23 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.66% | +214.00 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.60% | +206.78 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.73% | +223.09 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +4.45% | +573.19 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +2.21% | +284.68 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +1.23% | +159.19 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.62% | +209.24 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.23% | +29.88 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.32% | +41.02 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.53% | -713.22 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.84% | +108.58 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +4.42% | +569.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +5.32% | +685.49 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.94% | +121.79 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +3.57% | +460.09 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.50% | -580.16 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -0.99% | -127.74 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.91% | +761.53 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +4.59% | +591.09 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.61% | +336.95 |
While government lies are often pitifully transparent and almost laughable, what's really serious is the virtual certainty that the US government's insistence on turning food into ethanol to maintain the public's ravenous appetite for fuel is going to create mass starvation in the future. If you thought the casualties of the Mideast wars were bad, the number of people who are projected to die of starvation are huge. Based upon laws on the books of the US government today, this Administration is likely to end up killing more people than even Hitler did.
For instance, Wheat hit $25 in February. It has dropped in half since, but any severe weather which reduces the crop in any of the grains is going to force Wheat prices much higher. The irony is that, at current prices of Corn, ethanol producers can't actually make a profit.
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Friday, May 02, 2008
Hope Springs Eternal as Employment Guess Looms
The monthly exercise called the Employment Report commences Friday morning at 8:30am EDT as the Bureau of Labor Statistics guesses how many jobs were created or destroyed last month. They admit their numbers may be off by several hundred thousand, but the traders love to game the numbers anyway.
The market got a boost from beginning of month buying as the suggestion that Sovereign Wealth Funds would be putting capital into money center banks generated hope that the credit crunch was nearly over:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.48% | +189.87 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.54% | +197.16 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.05% | +390.64 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.11% | -399.16 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.69% | +216.97 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.96% | +251.03 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.98% | +510.61 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.76% | -482.66 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.03% | +131.57 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.84% | +108.00 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.70% | +218.24 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +3.15% | +403.84 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.11% | -270.45 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.75% | -481.20 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.89% | +242.91 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.89% | +242.40 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.04% | +518.52 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.68% | -472.21 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +3.18% | +407.46 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +3.16% | +404.62 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +6.38% | +818.51 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -6.28% | -805.42 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.30% | +166.89 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.42% | +182.58 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.42% | +309.66 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.63% | -336.81 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -3.16% | -405.29 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.09% | -267.42 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.07% | -264.88 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -3.07% | -393.56 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +5.92% | +758.43 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -6.04% | -774.16 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.93% | +503.61 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +7.03% | +900.64 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.43% | -824.59 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +3.89% | +498.08 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.37% | -46.81 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.33% | -41.69 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.49% | -62.48 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.15% | +19.35 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.37% | -47.68 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -3.42% | -437.89 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.56% | -200.55 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -2.02% | -259.42 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.18% | -150.97 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.11% | -270.45 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.88% | -240.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -6.28% | -805.42 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.11% | -399.16 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.76% | -482.66 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.63% | -336.81 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -3.75% | -481.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -3.68% | -472.21 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -3.31% | -423.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -3.24% | -415.69 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -3.36% | -430.28 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.98% | -382.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -3.99% | -511.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.69% | -472.66 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.53% | +196.28 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.32% | -169.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.56% | -712.56 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -7.66% | -982.56 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.52% | -195.47 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.47% | -445.14 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +5.25% | +673.66 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -5.09% | -652.12 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -6.43% | -824.59 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -5.81% | -745.40 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.09% | -268.26 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.49% | -62.64 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.54% | -197.16 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.32% | -2 |