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 Add Market Clues Blog to My Yahoo!Links: MyClues Home Page Thermopower, a breakthrough alternative energy, carbon-free and completely clean RSS Feed Market Clues Subscription Information Page Time & Cycles TFNN - Tom O'Brien T Theory - Terry Laundry Elliott Wave International's Market Report My Yahoo! Google News "The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens." ---John Maynard Keynes "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." ---Thomas Jefferson "I place economy among the first and most important republican virtues, and public debt as the greatest of the dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt." ---Thomas Jefferson
"I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more
dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be
paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
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Thursday, July 31, 2008
US Destined For the Scrapheap of History?
Here's a whimsical doom-and-gloom piece on the US going bust: The Black-Scholes Atomic Debt Bomb & 7 Predictions.
Ravi Batra, a professor at Southern Methodist University, predicted last century that both the US and the USSR would dissolve in the next few decades. He said the USSR would dissolve first (he was right) and that the US would follow in a couple of decades. The jury is still out, but considering the incompetence with which the government is operating, it's certainly a possibility.
Looking on the bright side, a reformation of the US is bound to be an improvement over what we have now.
Our Fearless Forecast
A breakdown in the government isn't imminent, no matter how much gloom and doom there is right now. And, we suspect the Election will not only be held this November, there will be no bush in the White House by the end of January 2009.
Stocks ran into the ceiling of the trading range on Thursday:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.78% | -205.67 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.98% | -228.82 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.84% | -444.33 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.90% | +452.30 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.31% | -151.80 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.37% | -158.54 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.68% | -310.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.71% | +313.74 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.48% | -171.31 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.42% | -163.96 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.68% | -78.53 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.07% | -239.60 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.55% | +63.55 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.78% | +206.21 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.66% | -75.90 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.40% | -46.91 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.91% | -104.95 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.05% | +122.16 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.20% | -23.13 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.24% | -27.96 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.41% | -47.03 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.32% | +37.10 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.43% | -165.37 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.17% | -135.56 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.78% | -321.91 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.34% | +271.54 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.36% | +41.33 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.02% | +2.70 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.32% | +37.42 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.63% | +72.46 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.25% | -144.90 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.01% | +116.79 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.31% | -35.57 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.76% | -88.22 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.95% | +110.55 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.04% | -120.53 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.99% | +114.85 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.80% | +92.52 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.51% | +59.14 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.63% | +72.45 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.21% | +23.77 |
| UltraShort Lehman 7-10 Year Treasury ProShares (PST) | -1.61% | -186.94 |
| UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares (TBT) | -2.03% | -234.99 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.33% | +37.71 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.99% | +230.07 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.51% | +175.43 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.51% | +174.77 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.55% | +63.55 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.73% | +84.18 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.32% | +37.10 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.90% | +452.30 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.71% | +313.74 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.34% | +271.54 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +1.78% | +206.21 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.05% | +122.16 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.09% | +242.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.16% | +250.65 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.28% | +148.20 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +3.20% | +370.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.12% | +245.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.51% | +174.96 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +4.98% | +576.60 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +2.61% | +302.62 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.85% | +98.17 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.81% | +209.99 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.92% | -106.73 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.30% | +382.59 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +7.39% | +856.49 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.36% | +272.87 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.95% | +110.55 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.90% | +104.42 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.26% | +145.88 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.98% | +229.48 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.10% | -11.19 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.17% | +251.25 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.69% | +427.04 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.46% | +285.28 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +6.84% | +792.65 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.41% | -47.03 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.84% | -444.33 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.68% | -310.03 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.78% | -321.91 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.07% | -239.60 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.91% | -104.95 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.71% | -198.06 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.71% | -314.13 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.03% | -118.79 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.85% | -330.46 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -1.72% | -198.97 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.49% | -172.38 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.36% | -620.90 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -3.04% | -352.61 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.37% | -274.14 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.67% | -192.97 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.96% | +111.59 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.78% | -438.08 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.84% | -792.40 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.17% | -251.30 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.76% | -88.22 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.80% | -92.29 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.16% | -134.23 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -1.82% | -210.89 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -3.51% | -406.76 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +3.41% | +395.13 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +2.61% | +302.18 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -5.52% | -639.72 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -2.31% | -267.43 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Earthquakes, Recession, Illegal Immigrants, Jobs and Withholding Taxes
An interesting discussion on Earthquakes and the Markets: "Major earthquakes in the USA are rare and their occurrence near key US market dates is a statistical oddity."
The current recession must be getting pretty bad. Illegal immigrants are going home.
On the other hand, jobs are up according to ADP:
Nonfarm private employment increased 9,000 from June to July 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The estimated change in employment from May to June was revised up from a decrease of 79,000 to a decrease of 77,000.
Though July's figures showed a slight employment gain, the ADP Report's recent three-month average of negative 14,000 suggests that the weakened employment situation continues.
One of the best concurrent measures of the economy is the rate of growth in withholding taxes collected and reported by the US government. This is a figure which is never fudged the way they fudge the inflation and other reports. According to Matt Trivisonno, who collects and publishes the data from the Treasury every day,
While the second quarter came in stronger than first, I do not consider that to be any sort of turn-around. On the annual chart below, you can see that the drop-off from 2007 is still much larger than 2001's drop-off from 2002. So, this supposedly "short and shallow" recession is looking a good deal worse than the last recession.
Stock traders are eager to call a bottom to the recession as they piled into beaten-down financials Wednesday. This came despite a big jump in oil prices. Will they be right? Yes, but they're probably still a bit early:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.63% | +186.13 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.86% | +212.31 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.72% | +423.45 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.65% | -416.22 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.63% | +185.78 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.85% | +211.25 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.58% | +407.88 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.69% | -420.89 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.74% | +197.80 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.59% | +181.62 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.44% | +49.80 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.92% | +104.50 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.08% | -9.37 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.78% | -88.77 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.50% | +56.78 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.60% | +68.85 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.05% | +120.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.15% | -131.48 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.47% | +53.30 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.51% | +57.82 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.64% | +186.56 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.51% | -172.07 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.47% | +167.52 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.40% | +159.45 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +3.06% | +348.77 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.85% | -324.46 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.57% | +64.76 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.23% | +25.69 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.76% | -86.13 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.18% | -134.62 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +2.60% | +296.75 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -2.20% | -250.33 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.82% | +93.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.19% | +135.75 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.89% | -215.02 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.61% | +183.93 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.10% | +11.31 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.19% | +22.15 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.11% | +12.56 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.48% | +54.57 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.02% | +2.75 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.51% | -58.28 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.85% | -210.41 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.92% | -218.61 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.96% | -222.98 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.08% | -9.37 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.69% | -79.20 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.51% | -172.07 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.65% | -416.22 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.69% | -420.89 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.85% | -324.46 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.78% | -88.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.15% | -131.48 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -3.33% | -379.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.57% | -293.17 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -2.19% | -249.31 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.34% | -380.73 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -0.55% | -62.93 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.99% | -226.57 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -7.96% | -907.12 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.09% | -124.48 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -0.54% | -61.76 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -3.48% | -396.11 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.07% | -7.50 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.99% | -340.38 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -9.91% | -1129.49 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +0.92% | +104.31 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.89% | -215.02 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.98% | -112.08 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -3.37% | -384.23 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.84% | -210.19 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.93% | -106.33 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.90% | -216.11 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -2.63% | -299.20 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.37% | -156.65 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -4.83% | -550.64 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.64% | +186.56 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.72% | +423.45 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.58% | +407.88 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +3.06% | +348.77 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.92% | +104.50 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.05% | +120.24 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +3.74% | +426.81 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +3.70% | +421.74 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.32% | +264.22 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +3.38% | +385.11 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.83% | +94.41 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.70% | +194.06 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +8.27% | +942.98 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.37% | +156.53 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.58% | +66.38 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +3.49% | +398.33 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.17% | -19.57 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +3.13% | +356.77 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +9.51% | +1084.40 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -1.22% | -139.56 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.19% | +135.75 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.13% | +128.57 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +3.20% | +364.64 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | +0.63% | +71.30 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +0.59% | +67.10 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +2.95% | +335.93 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -5.66% | -644.78 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -3.33% | -379.09 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +8.73% | +995.52 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | +3.04% | +346.44 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Bear Market End Game
The recession is now in its eighth month and that's about as long as most recessions last. This one might last longer due to the extended hangover suffered by the debt-dependent portions of the economy, but the lessons learned will hopefully last even longer.
After a series of evermore outrageous financial bubbles blown by Wall Street over the last two decades, sanity is beginning to return. Merrill Lynch finally sold some of their "toxic waste" paper for 22¢ on the dollar Tuesday. That's definitely a haircut! It means we are nearing the end of the long financial nightmare of a credit crunch and beginning to see the light of a new dawn emerging. The biggest question remaining is whether there will be a second shoe to drop later. There, the answer is likely to be "Yes," but we can enjoy the recovery while it lasts.
This economy is not unlike that of the 'Seventies, another time of high inflation and higher energy prices. The fever in the oil market seems to have broken for the moment, although bear market rallies are always going to happen in a post-bubble market. These bear market rallies will put intense pressure on the stock market. But, on Tuesday, that pressure was off as oil dropped below key support levels and gave stocks some breathing room to the upside:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +2.39% | +266.48 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +2.13% | +236.72 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.20% | +467.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -4.47% | -497.13 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +2.30% | +256.55 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +2.15% | +239.57 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +4.24% | +471.76 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -4.22% | -470.24 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.93% | +214.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.89% | +210.10 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.57% | +286.17 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +5.19% | +577.91 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.15% | -572.71 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.60% | +289.59 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.45% | +272.35 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.84% | +538.90 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.83% | -537.41 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +2.17% | +241.27 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.07% | +230.54 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.02% | +335.97 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.21% | -356.87 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.13% | +237.47 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.07% | +229.89 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.18% | +464.96 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -3.93% | -437.27 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.21% | -23.25 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.46% | -273.85 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.04% | -227.22 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.24% | -138.34 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +2.56% | +284.66 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -2.53% | -282.05 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.35% | +262.05 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.13% | +571.17 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.97% | -553.49 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +6.73% | +748.68 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.41% | -45.23 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.28% | -31.72 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.12% | -13.37 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.25% | -27.69 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.08% | -9.40 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.97% | -219.46 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -2.25% | -250.68 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -2.17% | -241.84 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.49% | -165.69 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.51% | -279.87 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.21% | -356.87 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -4.47% | -497.13 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -4.22% | -470.24 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -3.93% | -437.27 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.15% | -572.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -4.83% | -537.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -5.52% | -614.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -3.18% | -354.37 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.11% | -457.95 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.48% | -387.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -6.31% | -702.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -3.48% | -387.75 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -2.99% | -332.98 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.90% | -434.53 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -6.27% | -698.24 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -13.06% | -1453.52 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.77% | -85.72 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -4.87% | -541.89 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.16% | +129.11 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -10.40% | -1157.63 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.97% | -553.49 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.33% | -371.14 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.72% | -79.96 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -2.65% | -295.00 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.57% | -63.54 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.90% | -211.65 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -5.33% | -593.16 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.71% | -78.57 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -5.44% | -606.01 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.02% | +335.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.20% | +467.13 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +4.24% | +471.76 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.18% | +464.96 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +5.19% | +577.91 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +4.84% | +538.90 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.48% | +164.18 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +3.25% | +361.47 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +4.83% | +538.19 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +3.52% | +391.59 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +6.87% | +764.37 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.71% | +412.75 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +3.61% | +401.30 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +4.56% | +507.12 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +6.33% | +704.31 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +12.53% | +1395.03 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.55% | +172.77 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +4.68% | +520.76 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.98% | -108.89 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +10.36% | +1153.22 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +5.13% | +571.17 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +3.64% | +404.84 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.08% | +8.65 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | +2.47% | +275.22 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +3.24% | +360.81 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +3.36% | +374.15 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +1.37% | +152.59 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -4.91% | -546.31 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -1.26% | -140.41 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Retesting the Lows
The stock market slipped back as oil showed some spunk at chart support levels Monday. Clearly, the stock market is unhappy when oil doesn't move down vigorously. Even a minor bounce in oil now sends stocks tumbling and that isn't likely to change anytime soon. Consequently, the market moved back toward the old lows:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.11% | -239.61 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.57% | -178.77 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.58% | -407.50 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.58% | +407.36 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.66% | -188.72 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.51% | -171.27 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.04% | -345.62 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.07% | +348.70 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.61% | -183.37 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.41% | -159.82 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.71% | -194.52 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.49% | -396.36 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.14% | +357.41 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.89% | -214.56 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.91% | -216.72 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.52% | -400.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.96% | +336.03 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.78% | -202.08 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.88% | -213.50 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.08% | -349.82 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.78% | +316.06 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.19% | -135.35 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.11% | -126.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.20% | -249.73 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.10% | +238.61 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.03% | +3.39 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +0.10% | +11.58 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.29% | +33.26 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.04% | +4.96 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.26% | -29.86 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.87% | -212.51 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.72% | -309.59 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.94% | +333.89 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.94% | -447.63 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.01% | +114.79 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.57% | +65.18 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.56% | +64.09 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.58% | +66.00 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.21% | +23.36 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.84% | +208.96 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.88% | +214.07 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.72% | +195.82 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.00% | +113.37 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.88% | +214.31 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.78% | +316.06 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +3.58% | +407.36 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +3.07% | +348.70 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.10% | +238.61 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.14% | +357.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +2.96% | +336.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +4.46% | +506.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.26% | +256.73 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +1.66% | +188.83 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.82% | +207.39 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +3.94% | +447.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +2.81% | +319.74 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.28% | -32.30 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.80% | +204.45 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +4.33% | +492.00 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +7.71% | +876.39 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.24% | +141.25 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.62% | +411.45 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +0.44% | +50.47 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +5.12% | +582.10 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +2.94% | +333.89 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.03% | +344.36 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.41% | +46.60 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.59% | +180.58 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.40% | +159.05 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +3.35% | +381.33 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +2.49% | +282.89 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.41% | +273.99 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +5.80% | +659.48 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.08% | -349.82 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -3.58% | -407.50 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -3.04% | -345.62 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -2.20% | -249.73 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -3.49% | -396.36 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -3.52% | -400.62 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.19% | -134.83 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -2.98% | -339.27 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -2.18% | -247.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -5.04% | -573.46 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.23% | -367.00 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -0.83% | -93.82 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.67% | -304.08 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -5.52% | -627.69 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -7.43% | -844.52 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -2.08% | -236.89 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -3.53% | -401.70 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.72% | -81.51 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -4.41% | -501.83 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -2.72% | -309.59 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.54% | -402.97 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.23% | +26.57 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Portfolio (PQBW) | +0.29% | +33.32 |
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -2.72% | -308.96 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -2.99% | -339.69 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -1.69% | -191.79 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -0.26% | -29.41 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +2.12% | +241.11 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Crime Spree on Wall Street
The recent bear market on Wall Street has been described by the current bush in the White House as, "Wall Street got drunk and went on a bender." A more accurate description of the bear market should instead be, "The regulators got bribed and let the criminals on Wall Street go unpunished." It's one thing for the criminals to do what comes naturally, but it's an entirely different thing when authorities shirk their responsibility for enforcing the laws on the books, which is exactly what the current Administration has done.
Specifically, the Administration has disavowed any intention of enforcing the short-selling laws, which require that shares to be sold short must already exist and must be borrowed from their owner. In fact, the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission has declared that he doesn't think that naked short selling is actually a crime! Short sellers have been allowed to manufacture share after share after share out of thin air and continuously sell those shares short, driving prices down and down to the point where legitimate investors are forced to sell their shares to avoid further losses. This results in a waterfall of selling which reduces many stocks' values to mere shadows of their true value. This is unconscionable, criminal behavior both from the short sellers and from the Administration, which ignores the laws of the land in order to aggrandize their fellow travelers in the Power Elites. It's pretty clear from their actions that the current Administration's goal is to drive the stock market to fire sale prices in order to buy assets at very cheap prices. At that point, when long term investors have sold their holdings at a few pennies on the dollar, prices will again be raised back up to generate ill-gotten gains for the Power Elites who have engineered this operation and directed it through their puppet representatives in the government.
This is exactly what the Administration did when it came into office in 2001. It drove prices down to bargain basement levels by naked short sales, loaded up on cheap shares near the bottom, then allowed prices to rise back up to new highs.
This manipulation was clear from the very unusual pattern of the last bear market. Historically, during a recession, the stock market tends to bottom ahead of the actual bottom in the economy. The recession ended in November 2001, but stocks continued to plummet lower for the next fifteen months! This was a break in the pattern of the stock market rallying before the economy as it discounts a recovery from recession. This abnormal behavior was caused by the Power Elites, through their puppet representatives in the government (led by the bush in the White House, of course), as they encouraged criminals to drive share prices lower and lower. When the Elites finally decided to allow prices to rise back up, NASDAQ shares had reached Depression-era levels of valuation. Making a big profit is easy when you can buy assets at 10¢ on the dollar!
The operation was a grand success: the Power Elites made massive profits on this "dump and pop" scheme, so they're only too happy to "do it again" now. Apparently, you can fool most of the people most of the time during these times of idiocracy which the US has fallen into. Best plan: recognize what the Power Elites are doing and play their game alongside them. Trying to stand in the way of them is like driving a Toyota Celica and trying to cut off a tractor trailer on the freeway (we saw it happen in real life; the Toyota got crushed like a bug).
Friday's market, however, was a typically dull, summer doldrums day on Wall Street:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.19% | +21.41 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.33% | -36.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.20% | -22.45 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.17% | +19.48 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.34% | +39.14 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.04% | +4.52 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.31% | +34.80 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.13% | -14.76 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.31% | +34.81 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.04% | +4.43 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.95% | +107.75 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.84% | +208.31 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.77% | -86.90 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.29% | -146.34 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.03% | +116.66 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.03% | +116.55 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.70% | +192.87 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.89% | -101.10 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.36% | +153.91 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.30% | +147.29 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.52% | +286.05 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.51% | -285.22 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.43% | +49.29 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.29% | +33.01 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.39% | +43.75 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.30% | -34.47 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +2.23% | +252.82 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +1.25% | +141.87 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.00% | +113.47 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.39% | +44.74 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.49% | -55.07 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.66% | +74.86 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.61% | +68.99 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.68% | +190.16 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.26% | -256.99 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.67% | -75.58 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.00% | -113.43 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.58% | -65.98 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.62% | -70.39 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.53% | -59.88 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.13% | -15.07 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.26% | -143.01 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.15% | +16.72 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.21% | -24.38 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.06% | -7.18 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.77% | -86.90 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.80% | -91.15 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.51% | -285.22 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.17% | +19.48 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.13% | -14.76 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.30% | -34.47 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.29% | -146.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.89% | -101.10 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.12% | -13.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.21% | -136.88 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.28% | -31.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.01% | -1.48 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.93% | -218.61 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -2.08% | -236.31 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -3.98% | -451.99 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.13% | +14.81 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.21% | +23.43 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.11% | +126.23 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.99% | -112.85 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.72% | -81.20 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.50% | -170.55 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -3.52% | -399.41 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -2.26% | -256.99 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -3.25% | -368.93 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.48% | +54.21 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.04% | -4.22 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.08% | -9.57 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.93% | +105.21 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.25% | +28.31 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.49% | +169.31 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -1.86% | -210.91 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.52% | +286.05 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.20% | -22.45 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.31% | +34.80 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.39% | +43.75 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.84% | +208.31 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.70% | +192.87 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.32% | -36.33 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.73% | +196.86 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.26% | +143.20 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.69% | +305.77 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +2.37% | +269.12 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +3.98% | +451.43 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +0.20% | +23.14 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -1.20% | -136.08 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.40% | +159.18 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.86% | +211.04 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.16% | +131.41 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +3.26% | +370.04 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.68% | +190.16 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +3.21% | +364.82 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.25% | -141.43 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Portfolio (PQBW) | +0.29% | +33.35 |
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -0.31% | -35.28 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -0.27% | -31.14 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Long (BDG) | +0.53% | +59.98 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +2.58% | +292.55 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +1.05% | +118.66 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -4.02% | -456.70 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Oil Turns Up While Stocks Retrace Rally
The stock market was dragged lower by oil prices not continuing lower as in prior sessions. However, considering that, going into Thursday, the broad stock market had retraced about 2/3rds of its recent decline meant that the oversold condition was effectively neutralized and that a retracement (pullback in stock prices) was in order. Although oil prices didn't move up that much ($1.05 on September West Texas Intermediate), the fact that oil not only moved in the wrong direction, but that it remains at the nose-bleed level of $125 proved too much competition for stocks. Bubble-levels continue to prevail in energy, providing a 100-mph headwind for the economy. Only a continual decline in prices until they move well below the $100 price will finally begin to take the pressure off the economy and earnings.
Option traders were bullishly buying calls on the dip, which isn't a good read for sentiment. Toward the close, they finally decided it was time to buy puts. By that time the Dow was down far more than 200 points, though. This "buy the dip" mentality needs to be washed out of the market before we can see a return to the uptrend.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.43% | -283.10 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.27% | -264.21 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.53% | -527.16 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.96% | +577.24 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.28% | -265.00 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.17% | -252.23 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.55% | -529.52 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.45% | +517.81 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.46% | -285.58 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.31% | -269.25 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.67% | -310.53 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.31% | -617.61 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.31% | +268.59 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.68% | +544.65 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.38% | -277.23 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.53% | -294.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -4.78% | -555.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.69% | +545.70 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.71% | -198.42 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.50% | -174.34 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.31% | -384.84 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.46% | +402.39 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -3.03% | -353.01 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.86% | -332.88 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -6.15% | -715.35 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.10% | +710.10 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -2.18% | -253.48 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.27% | -148.11 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.28% | -148.73 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.84% | +97.61 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.80% | -208.94 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.74% | +202.98 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.22% | -491.02 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -7.02% | -816.81 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.52% | +758.53 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.70% | -663.60 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.98% | +113.53 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.86% | +100.30 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.70% | +80.85 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.88% | +102.81 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.28% | +32.38 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.31% | +152.46 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.29% | +266.40 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.29% | +265.81 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +2.90% | +336.95 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.31% | +268.59 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +2.08% | +242.34 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.46% | +402.39 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.96% | +577.24 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.45% | +517.81 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +6.10% | +710.10 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +4.68% | +544.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +4.69% | +545.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +5.74% | +667.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +2.64% | +306.56 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +6.65% | +773.63 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.48% | +520.83 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +5.07% | +589.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +3.75% | +436.46 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +5.80% | +674.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +3.58% | +416.57 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +5.38% | +625.49 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +11.35% | +1320.42 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.42% | +48.91 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +5.00% | +581.99 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.53% | +177.47 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +14.17% | +1648.68 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.52% | +758.53 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +3.64% | +423.54 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.97% | +228.58 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +3.42% | +398.39 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.83% | +212.64 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.36% | +274.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +5.58% | +649.08 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.60% | +70.12 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +8.76% | +1019.37 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.31% | -384.84 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.53% | -527.16 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.55% | -529.52 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -6.15% | -715.35 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.31% | -617.61 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -4.78% | -555.65 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -5.51% | -641.43 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -3.26% | -379.76 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -7.28% | -846.58 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -6.06% | -704.73 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -6.34% | -738.07 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.85% | -447.82 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -4.05% | -471.50 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.91% | -339.03 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -4.48% | -521.15 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -11.84% | -1377.19 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.50% | -58.12 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -5.48% | -637.94 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -0.98% | -114.50 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -13.80% | -1604.98 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -7.02% | -816.81 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -3.82% | -444.38 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -1.52% | -176.25 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Portfolio (PQBW) | -0.54% | -63.14 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +4.00% | +464.73 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -1.26% | -146.01 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -0.56% | -64.79 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +1.12% | +130.58 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | +0.26% | +30.11 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Oil Continues to Push Stocks Higher
The decline in oil prices continued on Wednesday, helping push the stock market higher. Although oil prices are still far too high according to the International Energy Outlook 2008 published by the Department of Energy, they will retreat in coming years. Apparently, the analysts working for the government think that there's a lot more oil hiding under the sands in the Mideast than has been found so far, since they say:
… total supply in 2030 is projected to be 28.2 million barrels per day higher than the 2005 level of 84.3 million barrels per day. The reference case assumes that OPEC producers will choose to maintain their market share of world liquids supply, and that OPEC member countries will invest in incremental production capacity so that their conventional oil production represents approximately 40 percent of total global liquids production throughout the projection. Increasing volumes of conventional liquids (crude oil and lease condensates, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gain) from OPEC members contribute 12.4 million barrels per day to the total increase in world liquids production, and conventional liquids supplies from non-OPEC countries add another 8.6 million barrels per day.
Now, where this mysterious extra supply of oil is going to come from is never explained. Presumably, higher prices will generate more oil? That's how supply and demand is taught in school: higher demand drives higher prices and supply rises to meet demand. In the real world, oil is a finite resource and that "law" fails miserably. The government analysts assume that oil is something that can be produced in greater quantity in reaction to higher prices. That's our government at work.
While we don't know any of the energy analysts working for the government personally, we are quite familiar with "forecasting" methods employed in government agencies. Actually, the techniques they use are quite sophisticated … for a kindergartner. In essence, highly paid analysts take a straight edge and lay it along the curve and draw a straight line into the future. That constitutes a prediction of future prices (or welfare clients, or drug addicts, etc.). In other words, the government has been known to use forecasting techniques which would be laughable in the private sector. No wonder the Energy Department was caught flat-footed by the current high price of oil. It forecast oil prices would reach current levels … after 2030. Prices have not followed that straight line extrapolation for the last couple of years. And, they are not likely to in the future.
In any case, this current correction in oil prices is going to end and oil prices are going to rise again. When they do, stocks will fall (eventually the tables will turn and oil will plunge rapidly in a crash, but that's not something you should trade on today). Today, in fact, stocks maintained their upward trajectory:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.26% | +29.88 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.46% | +53.15 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.46% | +53.19 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.04% | -120.35 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.39% | +45.06 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.62% | +71.94 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.20% | +139.35 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.35% | -157.16 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.16% | +18.85 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.28% | +32.55 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.51% | +58.85 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.96% | +111.86 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.03% | -3.19 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.61% | -71.34 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.31% | +36.09 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.64% | +74.68 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.85% | +98.09 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.02% | -118.46 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.28% | +148.53 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.32% | +152.87 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.68% | +311.43 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.66% | -308.96 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.09% | +10.38 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.14% | +15.70 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.89% | +103.32 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.06% | -123.30 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.76% | -204.15 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -5.13% | -595.73 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -4.95% | -573.94 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.68% | -310.45 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +5.78% | +670.33 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -4.93% | -572.48 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.43% | +165.58 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.47% | +170.12 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.12% | -130.31 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.28% | +264.77 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.20% | -23.12 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.16% | -18.64 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.12% | +14.04 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.35% | -40.64 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.05% | -5.61 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.29% | -150.10 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.35% | -40.07 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.45% | -52.45 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.11% | -13.20 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.03% | -3.19 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.27% | -31.11 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -2.66% | -308.96 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.04% | -120.35 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.35% | -157.16 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.06% | -123.30 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.61% | -71.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.02% | -118.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.16% | -134.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.78% | +90.27 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.50% | -174.44 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.26% | +30.08 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.17% | -136.12 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.63% | +73.01 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +4.52% | +525.00 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.41% | -395.28 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -1.69% | -196.17 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -5.01% | -581.73 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.72% | -199.27 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -2.11% | -245.08 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.40% | +743.13 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -6.89% | -799.35 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.12% | -130.31 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.32% | -268.83 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +4.55% | +527.66 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.75% | -87.15 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.20% | +22.82 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.73% | -85.15 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.76% | +87.95 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.96% | -111.67 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.79% | -323.62 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +2.68% | +311.43 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +0.46% | +53.19 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.20% | +139.35 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.89% | +103.32 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.96% | +111.86 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +0.85% | +98.09 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +3.57% | +413.78 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.38% | +44.61 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +3.09% | +358.10 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +0.89% | +103.52 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +2.05% | +237.85 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.07% | -8.67 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -5.63% | -652.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +3.14% | +364.83 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +1.91% | +221.69 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +5.11% | +593.02 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +2.06% | +238.70 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.34% | +154.98 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -7.68% | -890.69 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +6.50% | +753.77 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.47% | +170.12 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +2.61% | +302.49 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -3.92% | -454.37 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Portfolio (PQBW) | +1.70% | +197.07 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -1.13% | -130.94 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +4.67% | +542.01 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +2.55% | +296.03 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -6.23% | -722.61 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -3.58% | -415.06 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Bears Fold and Cover
While the playing field is tilted to favor the bears over the bulls, Tuesday's stock market saw the bulls win again.
Since the government last year eliminated the last vestiges of the short sale uptick rule which prevented massive short selling on downticks, it has been clear that it favors shorting stocks over buying them long. Actually, the head of the SEC, Christopher Cox, in an emergency order last week prohibiting naked short sales on a list of financial institutions, implicitly declared that the government did not intend to enforce the laws on the books prohibiting naked short sales on other stocks. A naked short sale occurs when shares which don't exist are sold short. And, Cox explicitly stated that, in his opinion, naked short selling is not illegal despite the fact that the security laws clearly require that shares sold short must exist prior to the sale. In other words, the government has announced to all the world that it prefers selling of stocks short to buying by allowing shorts to create an infinite number of phantom shares and to sell them short on all of the stocks not on the "protected" list.
Clearly, there is a bearish bias from the current Administration in Washington. Why that is isn't exactly clear. They prefer destruction of capital to creation of capital for some strange reason. A company which is targeted by short sellers cannot simply go out and buy an infinite number of shares on the long side -- they are limited to the number of shares issued and outstanding. But, their enemies, the short sellers, can sell an endless number of shares short as they wish with no fear of being brought to justice, even shares which do not exist. By using this naked short selling exemption, the value of all shares (except for the favored few on the exemption list) could theoretically be driven to a price of zero. There is no logic at all in this picture -- there is no reason any investor should actually hold stocks for the long term when this rule is in effect since all it would take for their investment to evaporate into space is a decision by a short seller to target their portfolio and eliminate its value. The criminals have found their perfect crime: naked short selling. And, they have the government on their side reinforcing their "right" to destroy equity. The simplest explanation for such a policy is that the government is subconsciously sowing the seeds of its own destruction in the name of "free markets."
Another simple explanation and one we have no direct evidence of its validity is that there are very wealthy powers "behind the throne" which are looking to buy ownership in US companies by driving the price of their shares as near to zero as they can. Whether those buyers are American or foreign, such a campaign would undermine the entire nation. If the politicians are in on the deal, they are guilty of treason. The more immediate question is whether the two heads of the current single party (plutocrat) Presidential election campaign are part of the conspiracy or not.
The bears failed to stop the market from moving higher on Tuesday despite poor earnings reports. Initially, the market fell, but a sudden mini-crash in oil prices revived the patient, who went on to soar 135 points. The non-shortable financials were the stars of the show. The government has declared them "off-limits" for illegal naked short sales by the bears while allowing illegal shorting for all other stocks for reasons only known in the halls of the White House. With the playing field a bit more level (but still tilted in favor of the shorts), the market clawed its way back:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.18% | +135.16 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.92% | +105.02 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.13% | +244.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.91% | -218.77 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.27% | +145.25 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.02% | +117.28 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.10% | +240.79 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.94% | -222.62 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.79% | +90.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.80% | +91.40 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +2.51% | +287.78 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +5.11% | +585.69 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.99% | -342.40 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.22% | -598.43 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.75% | +315.44 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +2.51% | +287.83 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +5.58% | +640.38 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -5.27% | -604.66 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.13% | +15.31 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.22% | -25.59 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +22.76 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.29% | +148.44 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.19% | +137.01 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.32% | +265.49 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.13% | -244.49 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.45% | -165.71 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.41% | -391.10 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.68% | -421.58 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.17% | -248.35 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +4.75% | +544.95 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -4.39% | -503.65 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.54% | -520.94 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -5.76% | -661.01 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.97% | +684.06 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +5.51% | +631.56 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.50% | -56.83 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.34% | -39.35 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.22% | -25.38 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.64% | +73.92 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.08% | -9.70 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.35% | +40.60 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.04% | -119.27 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.27% | -145.28 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.89% | -101.61 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.99% | -342.40 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -2.56% | -293.57 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.20% | +22.76 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.91% | -218.77 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.94% | -222.62 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -2.13% | -244.49 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -5.22% | -598.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -5.27% | -604.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -4.32% | -495.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.93% | -221.74 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.13% | -473.43 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.42% | -48.30 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -6.60% | -756.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -4.19% | -480.82 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.27% | +375.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.48% | -398.76 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -5.34% | -612.51 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -10.43% | -1195.82 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.83% | -209.34 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -3.60% | -413.38 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +5.48% | +628.35 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -5.19% | -595.46 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +5.97% | +684.06 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +0.34% | +39.06 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +0.26% | +30.28 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.36% | +41.02 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.79% | -90.90 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -0.75% | -86.01 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.06% | -121.84 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -2.86% | -328.41 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.96% | -339.43 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.22% | -25.59 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +2.13% | +244.38 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +2.10% | +240.79 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +2.32% | +265.49 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +5.11% | +585.69 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +5.58% | +640.38 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.15% | +131.36 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.33% | +37.92 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +2.21% | +253.22 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.23% | -26.06 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +6.10% | +699.60 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.98% | +456.47 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -2.25% | -258.58 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +4.19% | +480.99 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +4.68% | +536.14 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +10.02% | +1149.54 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +1.66% | +190.64 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +4.26% | +488.98 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.30% | -492.82 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +5.04% | +577.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -5.76% | -661.01 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.90% | -103.59 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.61% | -69.69 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite Portfolio (PQBW) | +0.13% | +14.63 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +0.73% | +83.81 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | -0.24% | -27.32 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +5.34% | +612.83 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +2.90% | +332.52 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -5.86% | -672.32 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -1.76% | -201.51 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, July 21, 2008
Oil and Financials Pressure Stocks
Stocks declined for the most part Monday as the four-day pullback in Oil concluded. At the same time, financials lost momentum and once again pressured the market.
But, the broad market continued in good shape, with advancers almost doubling decliners on the NYSE. This is a sign that the oversold rally is only taking a brief intermission before further recovery.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.25% | -29.23 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.36% | -40.97 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.66% | -75.60 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.88% | +101.41 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.35% | -39.88 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.06% | +7.30 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.20% | +23.22 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.16% | -18.43 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.54% | +62.41 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.56% | +63.90 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.53% | +60.41 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.25% | +143.91 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.19% | -21.42 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.17% | -133.94 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.53% | +60.50 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.22% | +140.20 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.23% | +256.18 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.30% | -264.87 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.00% | -114.76 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.43% | +48.99 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.03% | +3.21 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.09% | -10.13 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.67% | +76.85 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.73% | +83.59 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.67% | +192.05 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.82% | -209.35 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.03% | -3.32 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.29% | +263.52 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.46% | +283.06 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.01% | +115.98 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -2.26% | -260.14 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +2.25% | +258.14 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.09% | -125.06 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.17% | -134.91 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.13% | +129.83 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.87% | -100.23 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.39% | +44.49 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.23% | +26.36 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.40% | +46.46 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.11% | +12.75 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.05% | +5.56 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.20% | -23.21 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.18% | +20.54 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.12% | -13.23 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -1.04% | -119.15 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.19% | -21.42 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.03% | -118.89 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -0.09% | -10.13 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +0.88% | +101.41 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.16% | -18.43 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.82% | -209.35 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -1.17% | -133.94 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -2.30% | -264.87 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.16% | -18.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.33% | +37.93 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.88% | +101.50 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.12% | -128.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.50% | -172.54 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.24% | -143.12 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -7.06% | -812.15 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.33% | +37.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.29% | +263.04 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -0.57% | -65.62 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.12% | +128.21 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.33% | -38.02 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -6.22% | -714.97 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.48% | -54.97 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.13% | +129.83 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.93% | +222.12 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -2.27% | -261.11 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.95% | -109.12 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.59% | -68.29 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.14% | -130.97 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -1.66% | -190.78 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.51% | -58.21 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.34% | -269.45 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +0.03% | +3.21 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -0.66% | -75.60 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +0.20% | +23.22 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.67% | +192.05 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.25% | +143.91 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +2.23% | +256.18 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +0.59% | +67.64 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.35% | +40.26 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.78% | +89.97 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.69% | +194.86 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.73% | +198.54 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +1.34% | +153.83 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +6.29% | +722.58 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -1.38% | -159.19 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.31% | -265.46 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +0.49% | +56.49 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.69% | -193.97 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -0.09% | -9.87 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +5.46% | +627.74 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.76% | +86.91 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.17% | -134.91 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.28% | -147.63 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +2.54% | +291.68 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -0.48% | -55.74 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +1.66% | +190.29 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -3.92% | -450.18 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -2.07% | -238.22 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +5.76% | +662.68 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | +0.12% | +14.11 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, July 20, 2008
What Goes Up . . .
The market had a nice bounce last week off a severely oversold condition. This week, the real test will come as significant resistance levels are being tested right now. Friday's market featured options expiration and Monday will likely set the tone for the week as a whole:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.44% | +49.91 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.74% | +85.19 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.85% | +211.28 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.03% | -232.03 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.05% | -5.99 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.61% | +69.43 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.18% | +134.51 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.27% | -144.94 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.46% | +52.78 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.49% | +56.50 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.29% | -32.97 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.06% | +7.05 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.29% | -33.41 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.91% | +104.34 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.44% | -50.44 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.70% | +80.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.42% | -48.38 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +38.65 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.63% | -186.76 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.30% | -263.34 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.14% | -131.04 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.32% | +150.75 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.24% | -27.54 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.31% | -35.76 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.46% | +52.39 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.03% | -3.89 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.11% | -127.55 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.22% | -25.73 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.56% | -64.67 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.05% | -6.07 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.56% | +63.97 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -0.41% | -47.40 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.68% | -77.38 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.34% | -38.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.96% | +109.90 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.51% | +172.70 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.37% | -42.87 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.34% | -39.24 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.58% | -66.68 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.18% | -20.74 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.18% | -20.73 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.87% | +213.86 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.47% | -54.27 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.52% | -58.95 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.11% | +12.79 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.29% | -33.41 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.40% | +46.05 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.32% | +150.75 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -2.03% | -232.03 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -1.27% | -144.94 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -0.03% | -3.89 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.91% | +104.34 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +0.34% | +38.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -1.13% | -129.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.04% | +119.06 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -0.77% | -88.48 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -0.55% | -62.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.95% | +109.29 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.69% | +79.55 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.82% | +93.55 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.53% | +61.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.60% | +183.51 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -4.62% | -528.55 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.08% | +123.10 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.27% | +31.06 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.86% | -213.19 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.96% | +109.90 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.64% | +187.91 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.61% | -184.09 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.53% | +61.17 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.48% | +54.38 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.48% | -169.67 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.38% | +43.79 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +1.57% | +179.32 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -2.29% | -262.14 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.14% | -131.04 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.85% | +211.28 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.18% | +134.51 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +0.46% | +52.39 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.06% | +7.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.42% | -48.38 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +1.98% | +226.07 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.82% | -94.17 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +0.47% | +53.44 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.71% | -81.00 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.75% | -85.83 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.20% | -22.48 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.30% | -149.20 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.84% | -96.72 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.30% | -34.75 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +4.15% | +474.50 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.58% | -66.00 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +0.07% | +7.87 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.84% | +210.06 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.98% | +112.34 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.34% | -38.94 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -1.29% | -147.11 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.57% | +64.90 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +2.91% | +333.17 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | -3.47% | -397.02 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Short (BOS) | +0.69% | +79.01 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +2.00% | +228.59 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +0.62% | +70.71 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -3.17% | -363.00 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -0.33% | -37.35 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Friday, July 18, 2008
Stocks Get Another Push Up From Oil's Decline
Oil continued to rachet lower Thursday, falling below $130 per barrel. Although stocks got a boost from the directional move down, oil is still expensive enough to represent a bite of 7½% of the planetary GDP and that's not an insignificant retardant to growth. We will need to see oil plunge a lot further to keep the stock rally fires burning.
Unfortunately, alternatives to expensive oil aren't ready to market yet. They've been suppressed for many years as cheap oil caused those projects to be abandoned in the past. Now that we desperately need them, many have been lost due to incompetence or simple neglect, much as 'Sixties moonship technology was lost by NASA and is having to be re-invented by carefully studying Apollo rocket museum pieces.
The McClellan Summation Index finally was able to turn up on Wednesday. It rose to -2851.434 from -2873.766. One small step for the index, one giant leap for the market. Still, this oversold rally likely has some work to do before we can declare an uptrend in progress, despite the past two days' results:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +4.42% | +484.12 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +4.42% | +484.08 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +8.53% | +934.76 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -8.35% | -915.65 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +3.09% | +338.28 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +3.52% | +385.86 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +6.88% | +754.25 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -6.69% | -733.00 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +3.15% | +345.70 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +2.54% | +278.92 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +4.96% | +544.18 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +9.61% | +1053.57 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.70% | -295.75 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -9.90% | -1085.56 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +5.18% | +567.37 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +3.83% | +419.33 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +9.79% | +1073.36 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -9.57% | -1049.26 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.42% | +155.38 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +3.16% | +346.92 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +4.36% | +478.14 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.52% | -495.32 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +3.82% | +418.61 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +3.87% | +424.04 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +6.69% | +733.33 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.88% | -753.76 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -2.48% | -271.85 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -3.81% | -417.35 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -3.53% | -387.25 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.03% | -222.28 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +4.42% | +484.38 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.82% | -419.12 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +6.03% | +661.41 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +11.05% | +1211.44 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -10.93% | -1198.20 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +16.89% | +1851.57 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -2.31% | -253.60 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -1.39% | -151.93 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -1.20% | -131.63 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -1.12% | -123.29 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.24% | -26.40 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -3.17% | -347.53 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -4.39% | -481.36 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -3.13% | -343.34 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -3.53% | -386.58 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.70% | -295.75 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -4.94% | -541.03 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.52% | -495.32 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -8.35% | -915.65 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -6.69% | -733.00 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -6.88% | -753.76 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -9.90% | -1085.56 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -9.57% | -1049.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -8.97% | -983.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -3.88% | -425.74 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -7.45% | -816.65 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -4.42% | -484.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -13.51% | -1480.89 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -6.40% | -701.85 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +4.04% | +442.76 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.37% | -259.78 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -11.39% | -1248.77 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -28.84% | -3161.34 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -2.86% | -313.21 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -9.41% | -1031.43 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +6.86% | +751.87 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -17.31% | -1897.79 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -10.93% | -1198.20 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -6.13% | -672.53 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +6.89% | +755.83 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -3.29% | -360.16 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -4.39% | -481.30 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -6.20% | -679.38 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -5.53% | -605.76 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -4.01% | -439.21 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -10.12% | -1109.42 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +4.36% | +478.14 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +8.53% | +934.76 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +6.88% | +754.25 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +6.69% | +733.33 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +9.61% | +1053.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +9.79% | +1073.36 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +8.93% | +979.22 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +3.68% | +403.10 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +9.35% | +1024.98 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +4.66% | +511.26 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +13.46% | +1475.66 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +5.58% | +611.43 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -3.17% | -347.18 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +2.38% | +260.78 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +10.88% | +1193.12 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +32.21% | +3530.56 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +2.32% | +254.81 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +8.85% | +970.30 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -6.67% | -730.84 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +16.86% | +1848.82 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +11.05% | +1211.44 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +6.29% | +689.26 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -6.02% | -659.51 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +2.65% | +290.09 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +1.34% | +147.21 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Long (BDG) | -2.46% | -269.85 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +11.47% | +1256.94 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +5.97% | +654.88 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -10.86% | -1190.05 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -3.39% | -371.46 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Stocks Rally As Oil Falls, Shorts Cover
The stock market rallied Wednesday following another sharp tumble in oil prices. Although oil prices are still in bubblicious territory, the drop through significant support near $136/bbl sent a message to the market that brought out the hopes of the bulls and the fears of the bears. Also encouraging to the bullish camp was the rally in bank stocks after the SEC finally got around to enforcing the law against naked short-selling (decades late).
Yesterday, we pointed out that the market was in historic oversold territory as measured by the McClellan Summation Index. Today, that indicator closed at -2873.766, down slightly from Tuesday's -2789.279. Rallies which start from such extremely low levels tend to last a very long time, although the market can make a lower low. In addition to the oscillator's oversold condition, the NYSE Common Stock Advance-Decline Line reached lows not seen since October 2005. It's certain that the stock market needed a rally here even if it will be classified only as a "bear market rally." In the last bear market, there were several rallies which saw the market gain 20% or more (some indices even reached new highs on the "bear market rallies") before rolling over to fall to a lower low. This bear market has several similarities to the last one and we may be just at the beginning of a very large move.
This looks like more than a one-day wonder:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +2.52% | +276.74 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +2.68% | +293.66 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.73% | +518.88 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -5.03% | -550.97 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +2.39% | +261.86 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +2.46% | +269.92 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +4.88% | +534.76 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -4.70% | -515.16 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +2.15% | +235.19 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.60% | +175.24 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +3.48% | +380.99 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.74% | +848.78 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.78% | -195.28 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.81% | -746.32 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +3.68% | +403.84 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +3.67% | +402.69 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +7.73% | +846.99 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.41% | -812.37 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +2.15% | +236.09 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.49% | +272.58 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +4.94% | +541.26 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.90% | -537.38 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.42% | +265.55 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.36% | +258.98 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.87% | +533.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -5.13% | -562.72 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.17% | -18.33 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.21% | -242.78 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.04% | -223.50 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.80% | -197.20 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +4.00% | +438.68 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -3.31% | -362.36 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.65% | +400.13 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.79% | +525.48 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.25% | -575.66 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +10.97% | +1202.78 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.81% | -198.16 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.91% | -100.05 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.76% | -83.77 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.79% | -86.19 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.10% | -10.56 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -2.36% | -258.37 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -2.71% | -296.58 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -2.40% | -262.82 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.22% | -243.09 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -1.78% | -195.28 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -3.59% | -393.60 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -4.90% | -537.38 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -5.03% | -550.97 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -4.70% | -515.16 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -5.13% | -562.72 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.81% | -746.32 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.41% | -812.37 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -5.36% | -587.15 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.85% | -311.93 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -4.16% | -455.90 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -3.52% | -386.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -9.16% | -1004.65 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -5.83% | -638.93 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.39% | -43.28 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -2.52% | -276.10 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -7.38% | -808.83 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -22.35% | -2450.04 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -1.17% | -128.32 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -6.27% | -687.12 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +3.03% | +332.30 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -13.77% | -1509.56 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -5.25% | -575.66 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -4.38% | -479.93 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +3.51% | +384.86 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -3.29% | -360.16 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -1.84% | -201.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -3.39% | -371.26 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -5.75% | -630.05 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -4.61% | -505.91 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -8.92% | -977.79 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +4.94% | +541.26 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +4.73% | +518.88 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +4.88% | +534.76 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +4.87% | +533.50 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +7.74% | +848.78 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +7.73% | +846.99 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +4.03% | +441.85 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.91% | +99.74 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +6.53% | +715.72 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.64% | +289.64 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +8.33% | +912.71 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +4.87% | +534.15 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.71% | +78.15 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.86% | +203.49 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +7.29% | +799.51 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +22.67% | +2484.74 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +0.82% | +90.16 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +5.37% | +588.74 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.28% | -468.86 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +12.96% | +1420.38 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.79% | +525.48 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +4.62% | +506.69 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -3.55% | -388.94 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | +4.92% | +539.23 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +2.35% | +257.34 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Long (BDG) | -2.73% | -299.36 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +5.67% | +621.56 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +3.03% | +331.93 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -4.37% | -479.33 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -1.10% | -120.94 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Oblivious To Risk
The stock market gyrated in a trading range Tuesday as it opened on the low of the day, rallied to a high, then fell to the close. Breadth was poor as the McClellan Oscillator ended at an extremely oversold level of -218.577. The Summation Index closed at -2789.279, which is historically one of the lowest readings ever. Index option traders remained bearish as they paid out twice the cash for put protection as they paid for calls.
General Motors, frantically "restructuring" every month now, announced more plans to avert bankruptcy Tuesday and closed up. Despite the modest uptick, GM's market capitalization now represents the price paid for the equivalent in oil used on planet Earth in just half of one day. Among all the highly-paid executives at this once mighty corporation, all of which are certainly well-rewarded and must live a high life in luxury and comfort, were there none who saw the handwriting on the wall? The older ones, but even the younger ones, must have known of the Arab Oil Embargoes of the 'Seventies. That was a time when gas guzzlers were shunned by the public and compacts became popular. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation would surely have shown that gas prices near $5 per gallon would kill most popular GM models. Yet, these highly-paid managers somehow failed to plan for just this eventuality?
Perhaps this is symptomatic of human society as a whole. After all, villagers in places as civilized as Italy live on the slopes of known volcanoes (over a million people today reside in the blast zone for the next eruption of Vesuvius, for instance). The risk is well-known … and ignored by most. California residents await the "Big One," the massive earthquake which will kill tens of thousands in less than a minute. Perhaps living with risk is the spice of life, but it just doesn't seem right at all. We certainly won't shed a tear when GM goes belly-up, as it and most major US corporations must do, but it's certainly something that could have been prevented.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.84% | -92.65 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.01% | -112.05 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.71% | -188.78 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.94% | +214.22 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.05% | -115.57 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.38% | -152.24 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.57% | -284.27 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.73% | +301.92 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.57% | -173.36 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.22% | -135.28 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.40% | -154.57 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -91.99 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.77% | +84.86 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.26% | -28.45 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.42% | -46.79 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.23% | -25.59 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.08% | +119.42 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.39% | +43.47 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.02% | +2.50 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.40% | -44.38 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.56% | +61.60 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.92% | -101.49 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.91% | -100.95 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.70% | -187.50 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.66% | +183.39 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -1.35% | -148.90 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.32% | -256.33 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.56% | -282.69 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.27% | +29.97 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -0.54% | -59.58 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +0.28% | +30.90 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.28% | +141.82 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.36% | +150.82 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.33% | -147.21 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.80% | -309.77 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.03% | -3.57 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.36% | +40.01 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.39% | +42.95 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.02% | -2.20 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.14% | +16.00 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.18% | +20.22 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.02% | +112.31 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.11% | +122.37 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.92% | +101.36 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.83% | -91.99 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.45% | +49.32 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +0.56% | +61.60 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.94% | +214.22 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.73% | +301.92 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.66% | +183.39 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +0.77% | +84.86 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.08% | +119.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.32% | +256.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.58% | +174.15 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -1.10% | -122.01 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.86% | +95.41 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +0.91% | +101.14 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +0.11% | +12.70 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +3.91% | +432.58 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -1.30% | -143.50 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.34% | +37.42 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +6.25% | +690.70 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -2.65% | -292.60 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.18% | +352.05 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +8.79% | +972.21 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +2.70% | +298.94 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.33% | -147.21 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -0.60% | -66.46 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.90% | +209.97 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +1.74% | +192.37 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.55% | +171.27 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.89% | +319.70 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +3.10% | +342.82 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.69% | +297.13 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +5.94% | +656.21 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -0.40% | -44.38 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.71% | -188.78 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.57% | -284.27 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.70% | -187.50 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.40% | -154.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -0.23% | -25.59 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.37% | -372.39 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.29% | -142.71 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.05% | -226.92 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.60% | -65.99 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -0.87% | -96.57 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +0.56% | +62.24 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -4.52% | -499.59 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +1.44% | +159.66 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -0.61% | -67.80 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -5.98% | -661.06 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +3.63% | +401.49 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -2.23% | -246.75 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -8.30% | -918.06 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -2.08% | -229.93 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +1.36% | +150.82 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.04% | +4.14 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.30% | -254.46 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -0.60% | -66.29 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +7.53% | +832.06 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +9.77% | +1080.54 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +4.67% | +516.07 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -7.85% | -867.83 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -5.09% | -562.27 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
No Help For Banks
Flashback to the Jimmy Stewart movie, It's a Wonderful Life. Customers of the bank are crowding into the bank and demanding their money. Too bad George Bailey is not around in our reality -- he was never born. The bank pays out all the money it has on hand and Federal regulators take it over. Large depositors are promised 50¢ on the dollar. This is 2008 and this is reality, not a movie.
It's no wonder bank stock investors unloaded their shares Monday. Insolvent banks are worthless to equity investors. And, there appear to be a lot of banks which are close to reaching insolvency right now:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.41% | -45.35 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.52% | -57.96 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.34% | -148.85 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.26% | +140.26 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.99% | -109.88 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -0.98% | -108.38 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.10% | -233.19 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.75% | +194.75 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.71% | -79.10 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.89% | -98.44 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.36% | -150.51 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.55% | -283.28 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.14% | +126.47 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.41% | +378.60 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.48% | -163.76 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -1.65% | -183.17 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -4.15% | -460.57 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.06% | +339.51 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -0.78% | -86.25 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -0.74% | -82.21 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.80% | -200.04 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.63% | +181.34 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.99% | -110.19 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.99% | -110.26 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.96% | -217.66 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.99% | +220.62 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.44% | -48.61 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +3.57% | +396.70 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.37% | +485.41 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.79% | +87.49 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.75% | -194.43 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.91% | +212.34 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.78% | -86.38 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.83% | -203.44 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.89% | +210.26 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -4.82% | -534.65 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.88% | +97.56 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.53% | +59.31 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.15% | +16.61 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.05% | +5.53 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.23% | +25.49 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +0.64% | +70.59 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.58% | +63.90 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.00% | +111.54 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.99% | +109.75 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +1.14% | +126.47 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +1.48% | +164.74 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +1.63% | +181.34 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.26% | +140.26 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +1.75% | +194.75 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.99% | +220.62 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +3.41% | +378.60 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +3.06% | +339.51 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.36% | +372.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +0.10% | +11.57 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +3.52% | +390.22 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.56% | +172.81 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +4.98% | +553.13 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.93% | +213.81 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.69% | -76.53 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -0.07% | -8.15 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +1.35% | +150.35 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +10.22% | +1134.86 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.83% | +91.89 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -0.01% | -1.56 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -1.41% | -156.76 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +6.74% | +748.29 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +1.89% | +210.26 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +2.36% | +261.86 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +2.24% | +249.05 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.31% | +34.85 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.09% | +10.51 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +0.47% | +52.43 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +1.08% | +120.03 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.25% | -138.27 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +1.91% | +212.42 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -1.80% | -200.04 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.34% | -148.85 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.10% | -233.19 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.96% | -217.66 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -2.55% | -283.28 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -4.15% | -460.57 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.28% | -364.46 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.56% | +62.66 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.50% | -166.88 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -0.38% | -41.81 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.16% | -461.45 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -1.72% | -191.07 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.66% | +73.56 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -1.05% | -116.36 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -9.81% | -1089.04 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.97% | -107.95 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.03% | -114.56 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +1.62% | +180.36 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -6.82% | -757.25 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -1.83% | -203.44 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -2.16% | -239.90 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -2.33% | -258.46 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -2.25% | -250.24 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +0.97% | +108.02 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | -1.12% | -124.86 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Short (BOS) | +0.21% | +23.73 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +0.37% | +41.09 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -0.47% | -52.05 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +1.09% | +120.83 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | +0.49% | +54.23 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, July 13, 2008
A Difference of Opinion
We've followed sentiment for years and seldom have seen such a difference of opinion in the short term measures by options traders. Two indices we track, the OEX and QQQQ, tend to behave slightly differently. The OEX options traders have historically been right only in the middle of trends, consistently missing the turns quite badly. The QQQQ options traders, on the other hand, don't have a great record of being in tune with the market, but have had their moments of brilliance. Enough to pay attention when they are pressing the bull or bear case hard.
The OEX traders are consistently trying to call a bottom in the market right now. They buy calls on short term rallies (even if those rallies only last an hour or two). While they have been right on the trend the last few weeks (i.e., consistently buying puts), this tendency to buy calls in hope of a bounce is not something that has tended to work for them in the past. Indeed, they have had some incredibly bad trades trying to catch bottoms. It's not unlike trying to catch falling knives.
The QQQQ traders are, instead, heavily buying puts, which is an indication that they think the market is going lower despite its "oversold" condition.
From a sentiment perspective, the market doesn't look bullish at all. And, oversold conditions are the only condition from which the stock market starts a crash. So, this time the OEX traders are going to be spectacularly right (a huge oversold rally) or spectacularly wrong (a crash). It will be interesting at the very least.
Friday's market was a very emotional one with volatility kicking up its heels. Close to a turn? Absolutely!
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.14% | -128.48 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.12% | -125.94 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.12% | -238.07 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.13% | +238.66 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.02% | -114.76 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.13% | -127.21 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.21% | -247.84 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.37% | +266.21 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.05% | -118.07 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.63% | -71.30 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.31% | +35.32 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.46% | +51.23 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.95% | -106.56 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.49% | -55.43 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.60% | +67.16 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.55% | +62.10 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.17% | +131.07 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.90% | -100.75 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.49% | -167.62 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -1.59% | -178.55 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.78% | -312.00 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.71% | +303.96 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.38% | -42.17 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.39% | -44.15 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.59% | -178.54 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.81% | +202.80 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.22% | +24.64 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.66% | +523.61 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +4.37% | +490.83 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +1.74% | +195.70 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -3.95% | -443.71 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +3.32% | +373.04 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -1.00% | -112.23 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.30% | -34.19 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.51% | +57.62 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.09% | -234.58 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.42% | -159.74 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.93% | -104.97 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.57% | -63.50 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.77% | -86.52 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.21% | -23.03 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +1.51% | +169.76 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +1.06% | +119.21 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +1.00% | +112.36 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.25% | +28.27 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.95% | -106.56 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -0.61% | -68.78 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +2.71% | +303.96 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +2.13% | +238.66 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.37% | +266.21 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.81% | +202.80 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -0.49% | -55.43 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -0.90% | -100.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +2.08% | +233.62 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.01% | +113.83 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +2.44% | +274.07 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +0.51% | +57.58 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.35% | -151.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.73% | -193.88 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -1.79% | -200.46 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.48% | +53.85 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +2.44% | +274.21 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +4.07% | +457.08 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +1.15% | +129.10 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +2.34% | +262.27 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +1.23% | +138.12 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -0.24% | -26.86 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.51% | +57.62 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +1.17% | +131.50 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.07% | +119.82 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +0.59% | +66.67 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.53% | +171.38 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.96% | +332.36 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +1.11% | +124.14 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +2.78% | +311.69 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -0.15% | -16.61 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -2.78% | -312.00 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -2.12% | -238.07 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.21% | -247.84 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.59% | -178.54 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +0.46% | +51.23 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.17% | +131.07 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -1.45% | -163.35 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.86% | -209.40 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -2.87% | -322.28 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.21% | -136.32 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +1.55% | +174.48 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -0.41% | -45.83 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +1.34% | +150.83 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +0.77% | +86.89 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -2.19% | -245.43 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -4.18% | -469.16 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -1.23% | -138.38 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -1.92% | -215.37 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -1.41% | -158.71 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +0.23% | +26.17 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -0.30% | -34.19 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -0.91% | -101.90 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | -0.12% | -13.51 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | -0.63% | -70.43 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -4.68% | -525.74 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +3.01% | +337.44 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Short (BOS) | -1.93% | -216.58 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Long (BDG) | +1.37% | +153.65 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -5.76% | -646.42 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -2.29% | -257.23 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +3.60% | +404.39 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | +1.26% | +141.00 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Friday, July 11, 2008
Rangebound Market
The market remains rangebound between two poles. At the north pole, the professional traders are eager to sell stocks to the public. At the south pole, the public is eager to buy the dip, trying to scoop up "bargains." Consequently, this market is likely to continue within this range until one of those two groups cries, "Uncle!" That didn't happen Thursday as the market closed about midway within the range. But, a breakout one way or the other is likely to be a fakeout destined to see a reversal:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.73% | +81.58 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.66% | +73.92 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.42% | +157.89 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.36% | -151.90 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.76% | +84.81 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.47% | +52.72 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.27% | +141.84 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.97% | -107.86 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.77% | +85.63 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.53% | +59.54 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.79% | +88.51 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.68% | +187.14 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.43 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.09% | -233.02 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.54% | +59.79 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.98% | +109.37 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.99% | +222.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.89% | -210.83 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.22% | +136.28 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +1.18% | +132.03 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.32% | +146.86 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.32% | -147.65 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.53% | +58.67 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.59% | +65.42 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.25% | +139.39 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.01% | -112.56 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +1.25% | +139.30 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.84% | +316.06 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.01% | +224.17 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.22% | +247.31 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -4.38% | -487.94 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +4.21% | +468.96 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.36% | +151.44 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.40% | +490.72 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.50% | -501.67 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.52% | -57.92 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.01% | -1.19 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.03% | +3.77 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.09% | +9.96 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | -0.57% | -63.51 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.12% | -13.43 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -1.06% | -118.03 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -0.72% | -80.48 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -0.58% | -64.95 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -0.55% | -61.05 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -0.01% | -1.43 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -1.16% | -129.46 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.32% | -147.65 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -1.36% | -151.90 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -0.97% | -107.86 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -1.01% | -112.56 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -2.09% | -233.02 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -1.89% | -210.83 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -0.28% | -31.49 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -1.15% | -127.66 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +0.19% | +21.23 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -1.69% | -188.77 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -1.91% | -213.35 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -1.44% | -160.19 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -4.92% | -548.07 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.91% | +100.96 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.01% | +335.65 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +1.81% | +201.47 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -0.67% | -74.72 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -1.84% | -205.09 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | -6.00% | -668.85 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -2.87% | -319.75 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -4.50% | -501.67 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -2.03% | -226.64 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.79% | -88.51 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -1.84% | -204.59 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.47% | -52.00 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.36% | -151.11 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -3.62% | -403.83 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -1.43% | -159.08 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -7.45% | -830.49 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.32% | +146.86 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +1.42% | +157.89 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +1.27% | +141.84 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +1.25% | +139.39 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +1.68% | +187.14 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +1.99% | +222.03 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.70% | -77.74 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +1.29% | +143.85 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -0.68% | -75.26 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +1.15% | +128.05 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +0.89% | +98.91 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +3.57% | +398.21 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +4.88% | +544.33 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -2.90% | -323.06 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.16% | -352.45 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -2.10% | -233.99 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.18% | -20.17 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +1.99% | +222.10 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | +6.11% | +680.97 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +2.14% | +238.87 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +4.40% | +490.72 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +1.66% | +185.10 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.78% | +87.09 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -3.50% | -389.64 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +3.60% | +401.41 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Short (BOS) | -3.05% | -339.86 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | -7.43% | -828.07 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | -3.65% | -407.07 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | +7.55% | +841.73 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Sellers Return
Stocks plunged Wednesday after rallying to resistance Tuesday and finding those levels impenetrable. Although oil prices continued to pull back, they remained at levels which exert tremendous contractionary pressure on the economy. Clearly, oil prices not only need to retreat for stocks to rally, they need to be back into the double-digit range to relieve the drag on the economy. As it is with an economy pushing toward its nine-month recession milestone, there is no hope for the economy to start growing anytime soon.
The current situation is being likened to a frog being boiled in water, slowly. While the water continues to rise in temperature, the frog is unworried. Only when it is too late to do anything about it, the frog realizes he is cooked and about to be eaten. That pretty much sums up the US today. Some think it may simply be that the terrorists have found a more convulted and ingenious method of attack to destroy the country. We don't know. What we do know is that high energy prices are slowly, but surely, killing the economy and that very few are willing to do anything at all about it. Frogs being boiled slowly, indeed.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.08% | -236.77 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.99% | -226.94 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.06% | -462.23 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.05% | +461.19 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.21% | -251.69 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.92% | -218.38 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.40% | -501.47 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.01% | +456.58 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.69% | -192.72 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.53% | -173.79 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.51% | -285.61 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.37% | -611.57 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.40% | +273.54 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.97% | +679.26 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.62% | -298.81 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.67% | -304.38 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.60% | -637.24 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.36% | +610.66 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.54% | -288.91 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | -2.65% | -302.13 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.85% | -438.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.78% | +430.33 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -1.44% | -163.47 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -1.48% | -168.85 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.15% | -358.45 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.60% | +295.82 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | +0.92% | +105.29 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.16% | -18.68 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +0.44% | +49.99 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.70% | +80.19 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | -1.18% | -134.67 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | +1.47% | +167.04 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.31% | -490.46 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -8.34% | -949.32 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.80% | +774.52 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.10% | -581.10 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.44% | +50.14 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.48% | +54.13 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.39% | +44.26 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.07% | +7.83 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.17% | +19.23 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | +2.53% | +288.38 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +2.05% | +233.15 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +2.13% | +242.89 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +1.54% | +175.45 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +2.40% | +273.54 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +3.03% | +344.89 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | +3.78% | +430.33 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +4.05% | +461.19 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +4.01% | +456.58 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +2.60% | +295.82 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +5.97% | +679.26 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +5.36% | +610.66 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +4.55% | +518.20 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +3.67% | +417.77 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +4.83% | +550.19 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +4.16% | +473.64 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +6.95% | +790.91 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +4.23% | +481.63 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +1.64% | +186.24 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +1.41% | +160.42 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +3.91% | +445.22 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +8.94% | +1017.30 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.42% | +48.25 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +3.82% | +434.90 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +4.40% | +501.43 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +13.34% | +1518.43 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +6.80% | +774.52 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | +5.35% | +609.62 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -1.65% | -188.36 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | +2.19% | +249.58 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +1.08% | +122.50 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +2.73% | +310.98 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +4.28% | +487.69 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +3.40% | +387.34 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | +3.57% | +406.24 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | -3.85% | -438.67 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -4.06% | -462.23 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -4.40% | -501.47 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -3.15% | -358.45 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -5.37% | -611.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -5.60% | -637.24 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -0.82% | -92.81 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -0.96% | -109.65 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -4.01% | -456.35 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -3.39% | -385.57 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -4.95% | -563.29 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | -3.21% | -365.65 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | +0.17% | +19.06 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | -0.25% | -28.44 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | -3.29% | -374.01 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | -9.14% | -1041.00 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | -0.36% | -41.04 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | -4.10% | -466.68 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -4.72% | -537.87 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | -13.82% | -1572.92 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | -8.34% | -949.32 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | -5.54% | -630.91 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +1.55% | +175.96 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | -2.94% | -334.41 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | +4.59% | +522.54 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Short (BOS) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +0.32% | +36.89 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +0.16% | +18.30 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -0.54% | -62.02 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, July 08, 2008
Oil Bubble Loosens Its Grip on Stocks
The bubble in oil relaxed its death grip on the stock market slightly and allowed the market a bit of breathing space. The two-day decline of approximately 6% in the (still) sky-high price of oil wasn't enough to significantly ease the pressure on the economy, of course, but did give the market hope that the bubble might have ended and led to the somewhat reluctant rally in stocks:
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +1.36% | +152.25 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +1.48% | +166.16 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.07% | +344.96 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.14% | -352.59 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +1.57% | +176.51 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.74% | +195.85 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.88% | +435.32 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.64% | -408.46 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.38% | +154.54 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.39% | +156.32 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +3.16% | +354.90 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +6.31% | +708.86 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.63% | -295.80 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.91% | -776.46 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +3.72% | +417.36 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +3.62% | +406.94 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +8.13% | +913.47 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.62% | -855.69 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +2.07% | +232.15 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +2.38% | +267.67 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.76% | +422.67 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.88% | -435.33 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +2.23% | +250.93 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +2.31% | +260.00 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +5.01% | +562.40 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.79% | -537.62 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -0.39% | -43.90 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.22% | -137.27 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.51% | -170.00 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.41% | -45.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +0.90% | +100.55 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.01% | -113.70 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.89% | +99.78 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.97% | +109.32 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.19% | +21.70 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +5.88% | +660.50 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.65% | +72.86 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.25% | +28.04 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.39% | +43.84 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.54% | +61.05 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.01% | +1.36 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -2.39% | -268.28 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | -1.62% | -182.34 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | -1.85% | -208.00 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | -2.19% | -246.11 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | -2.63% | -295.80 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | -3.71% | -417.12 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -3.88% | -435.33 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | -3.14% | -352.59 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | -3.64% | -408.46 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | -4.79% | -537.62 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | -6.91% | -776.46 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | -7.62% | -855.69 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | -4.72% | -530.70 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | -2.90% | -325.20 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | -6.22% | -698.33 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | -2.98% | -334.54 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | -8.30% | -932.45 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | -6.35% | -713.14 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | +0.78% | +87.54 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | -3.50% | -392.76 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | -4.65% | -522.74 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | -11.83% | -1328.74 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | -5.42% | -609.14 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | -4.17% | -468.13 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +2.61% | +293.30 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | -14.29% | -1604.84 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | +0.19% | +21.70 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.46% | -164.25 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | -0.59% | -66.42 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.59% | -66.50 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | -0.48% | -54.06 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | -1.32% | -148.41 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | -3.24% | -363.62 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | +0.65% | +73.07 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -3.06% | -343.52 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +3.76% | +422.67 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | +3.07% | +344.96 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | +3.88% | +435.32 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | +5.01% | +562.40 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | +6.31% | +708.86 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | +8.13% | +913.47 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | +2.14% | +240.91 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | +0.15% | +16.67 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | +4.59% | +516.05 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | +2.43% | +272.98 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | +6.37% | +715.43 |
| Ultra Russell2000 Growth ProShares (UKK) | +4.56% | +511.75 |
| Ultra Basic Materials ProShares (UYM) | -1.77% | -199.23 |
| Ultra Consumer Goods ProShares (UGE) | +3.15% | +353.52 |
| Ultra Consumer Services ProShares (UCC) | +3.59% | +402.82 |
| Ultra Financials ProShares (UYG) | +12.98% | +1458.29 |
| Ultra Health Care ProShares (RXL) | +7.00% | +786.35 |
| Ultra Industrials ProShares (UXI) | +2.95% | +331.42 |
| Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (DIG) | -2.51% | -281.63 |
| Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) | +14.76% | +1657.46 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +0.97% | +109.32 |
| Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM) | +0.91% | +102.72 |
| Ultra Utilities ProShares (UPW) | +0.32% | +35.45 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| NASDAQ Internet Portfolio (PNQI) | +1.43% | +160.96 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Short (BOM) | +4.86% | +545.76 |
| PowerShares DB Base Metals Double Long (BDD) | -7.95% | -892.39 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Short (DTO) | +8.58% | +963.16 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Short (SZO) | +4.58% | +514.62 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Double Long (DXO) | -6.99% | -784.57 |
| PowerShares DB Crude Oil Long (OLO) | -2.99% | -336.36 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, July 07, 2008
Oil Crisis Eases Slightly, But Credit Crunch Worsens
The usual suspects in Washington continued to turn a blind eye on an economy sliding deeper into recession by the day. Perhaps they will be known as the Hooverites of the 21st century, but this shocking lack of neglect of their duties will not go unnoticed, nor unpunished, by the citizens of the US. Not since 1930 has a bush in the White House been so out-of-touch with reality as this one is.
Easing oil prices were balanced by additional needs for capital to ease the credit crunch Monday as this double-hammer action on the economy continues to take its toll on the stock market. The possibility that the oil bubble had burst initially sent the Dow soaring, but the market couldn't hold those gains and plunged almost 300 points intraday. Sellers stepped back and let a short-covering rally push prices above the unchanged level briefly before pushing them down into the close. Overall, the price indices did not reflect the true damage to the market. Advancers (957) trailed decliners (2236) on the NYSE by 1279 issues, showing that while a few stocks can be run up the flagpole, the broad market was still plunging as it had last week. This intense weakness is unlikely to presage any kind of a lasting rally and confirms that the trend remains firmly on the downside for now.
One stock sector whose downturn will be good news will be the oil stocks. When those stocks trend down, it will indicate that the bubble is about to burst. So far, we've had strong hints that the sector has topped out, but no confirmation just yet. It will probably take the introduction of a cheaper alternative to oil as a primary energy source before oil stocks accelerate to zero. But, that day is coming and it's something for everyone to look forward to.
The oil crisis is, of course, a global phenomenon as you can tell very quickly by searching Google for "oil crisis" news. The problem is that there are so many suspects to blame, governments can't point their fingers at the perpetrators and devise a solution. This is very unlike the 'Seventies, when it was clearly the Mideast embargo of oil which caused that spike in the price and the widespread belief among the public that "we are running out of oil." Another difference today is that we have probably reached the Peak Oil date so many had anticipated for the last couple of decades. Now, speculators are viewing the market through a telescope and using price to force a solution. If it takes a deep recession or depression, they say, then so be it.
One of the major stumbling blocks for politicians in this Obama/McCain two-headed one-party plutocracy to admit is that they've been cooking the books for years, understating inflation and overstating employment and the national growth rate. The economy has been in a major slump this entire decade with a modest rebound in the middle which did nothing to rebuild consumer confidence. Consumer expectations have hit an all-time low now and the public mood is turning ugly very fast. Promises from both heads of the plutocracy will be made, but are unlikely to be kept past the January Inauguration.
The public will want to hang the perceived perpetrators, of course. Likely suspects are speculators, government bureaucrats, politicians, oil companies, and investment bankers. Things could get very tense . . . and soon.
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.50% | -56.58 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.74% | -83.88 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.43% | -161.48 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.66% | +187.05 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -0.86% | -97.07 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.02% | -115.29 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.09% | -235.89 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.20% | +248.44 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.96% | -108.25 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.03% | -116.26 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -1.09% | -122.52 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.85% | -209.27 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.60% | +68.24 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.14% | +241.88 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -1.11% | -125.81 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -0.95% | -107.23 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.24% | -252.75 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.90% | +214.42 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.59% | +66.69 |
| NASDAQ 100 TR SER I (QQQQ) | +0.60% | +68.29 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.52% | +171.23 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.75% | -197.83 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -0.78% | -88.52 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -0.74% | -83.58 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.78% | -200.92 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.48% | +166.72 |
| GREENHAVEN Continuous Commodity Indx Fnd (GCC) | -4.30% | -485.56 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.18% | -246.01 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.74% | -196.66 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.90% | -101.78 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE SHORT GOLD (DZZ) | +1.78% | +201.43 |
| DEUTSCHE BANK DOUBLE LONG GOLD (DGP) | -1.65% | -185.70 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.63% | +70.67 |
| Ultra Semiconductors ProShares (USD) | +2.82% | +317.88 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.00% | -112.58 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -2.91% | -328.16 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.46% | +51.50 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.47% | +52.77 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.35% | +39.68 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVEST (LQD) | +0.47% | +52.68 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.06% | +6.82 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| Short QQQ ProShares (PSQ) | -0.50% | -56.68 |
| Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG) | +0.70% | +79.09 |
| Short S&P500 ProShares (SH) | +0.95% | +107.14 |
| Short MC400 ProShares (MYY) | +0.50% | +56.42 |
| Short SmallCap 600 ProShares (SBB) | +0.60% | +68.24 |
| Short Russell 2000 ProShares (RWM) | +0.98% | +110.37 |
| UltraShort QQQ ProShares (QID) | -1.75% | -197.83 |
| UltraShort Dow30 ProShares (DXD) | +1.66% | +187.05 |
| UltraShort S&P500 ProShares (SDS) | +2.20% | +248.44 |
| UltraShort MC400 ProShares (MZZ) | +1.48% | +166.72 |
| UltraShort SmallCap 600 ProShares (SDD) | +2.14% | +241.88 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 ProShares (TWM) | +1.90% | +214.42 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Value ProShares (SJF) | +3.14% | +354.71 |
| UltraShort Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (SFK) | +1.10% | +124.10 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares (SJL) | +3.19% | +360.41 |
| UltraShort Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (SDK) | +1.42% | +160.03 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Value ProShares (SJH) | +2.33% | +262.67 |
| UltraShort Russell 2000 Growth ProShares (SKK) | +1.68% | +189.25 |
| UltraShort Basic Materials ProShares (SMN) | -0.18% | -20.27 |
| UltraShort Consumer Goods ProShares (SZK) | +0.76% | +85.62 |
| UltraShort Consumer Services ProShares (SCC) | +0.32% | +36.35 |
| UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF) | +6.66% | +752.33 |
| UltraShort Health Care ProShares (RXD) | +0.82% | +92.58 |
| UltraShort Industrials ProShares (SIJ) | +0.10% | +11.14 |
| UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) | +5.70% | +643.12 |
| UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (SRS) | +4.58% | +517.54 |
| UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares (SSG) | -1.00% | -112.58 |
| UltraShort Technology ProShares (REW) | -1.07% | -121.22 |
| UltraShort Utilities ProShares (SDP) | +1.79% | +201.73 |
| Short MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EUM) | -0.43% | -48.15 |
| Short MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFZ) | +0.71% | +80.71 |
| UltraShort MSCI EAFE ProShares (EFU) | +1.56% | +175.72 |
| UltraShort MSCI Emerging Markets ProShares (EEV) | +0.50% | +56.92 |
| UltraShort MSCI Japan ProShares (EWV) | -0.66% | -74.33 |
| UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ProShares (FXP) | -4.83% | -545.17 |
| Ultra QQQ ProShares (QLD) | +1.52% | +171.23 |
| Ultra Dow30 ProShares (DDM) | -1.43% | -161.48 |
| Ultra S&P500 ProShares (SSO) | -2.09% | -235.89 |
| Ultra MC400 ProShares (MVV) | -1.78% | -200.92 |
| Ultra SmallCap 600 ProShares (SAA) | -1.85% | -209.27 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 ProShares (UWM) | -2.24% | -252.75 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Value ProShares (UVG) | -3.74% | -422.26 |
| Ultra Russell 1000 Growth ProShares (UKF) | -1.21% | -136.53 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Value ProShares (UVU) | -1.80% | -203.17 |
| Ultra Russell MidCap Growth ProShares (UKW) | -1.03% | -116.06 |
| Ultra Russell 2000 Value ProShares (UVT) | -2.05% | -231.46 |
| Ultra Ru | ||