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Tuesday, December 01, 2009

To Be Effective or To Be Honest

Climate Change Scientists' Ethical Dilemma

Here is a quote from a leading scientist-activist behind the Climate Change movement:

I readily confess a lingering frustration: uncertainties so infuse the issue of climate change that it is still impossible to rule out either mild or catastrophic outcomes, let alone provide confident probabilities for all the claims and counterclaims made about environmental problems. Even the most credible international assessment body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has refused to attempt subjective probabilistic estimates of future temperatures. This has forced politicians to make their own guesses about the likelihood of various degrees of global warming.

On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but - which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we'd like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broadbased support, to capture the public's imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This 'double ethical bind' we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both.

            ---Stephen Schneider, Professor of Environmental Biology and Global Change at Stanford University

Schneider sounds like he should have been a banker, considering how he tries to balance "being effective and being honest". Anyone who admits to potentially compromising being honest cannot be trusted.

Be very skeptical of anyone claiming there is a "consensus" of scientists concerning Global Warming. And, keep your hand on your wallet. These scientists spend most of their time writing grant proposals and will do anything to get that next grant. That is, they are forced to "offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts". Clearly, they are not being honest, but believe their "greater effectiveness" makes up for that ethical lapse.

Herd On The Street

The Price-Earnings Ratio of the S&P 500 Index is currently 87 (no link currently available).

Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 30 Nov 2009 To 1 Dec 2009 (ETF tickers in the table are links to Money Flow charts)

SecurityPercentage Change From 20 Jan 2009Percentage Change From 30 Nov 2009Change in Dow Jones Industrial Average Points
Dow Jones Industrial Average (index)+31.73%+1.23%+126.74
DIAMONDS TRUST SERIES 1 (DIA)+31.89%+1.11%+114.85
ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM)+68.86%+2.29%+237.07
ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD)-54.03%-2.32%-240.50
S&P 500 (index)+37.64%+1.16%+119.63
S&P SPDRS (SPY)+38.14%+1.24%+127.97
ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO)+80.57%+2.28%+235.49
ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS)-58.94%-2.41%-249.07
NYSE Composite (index)+42.59%+1.69%+174.62
ISHARES NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYC)+43.16%+1.64%+169.77
S&P SmallCap 600 (index)+34.84%+1.49%+153.85
ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA)+63.65%+2.72%+281.81
SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB)-34.86%-1.43%-148.44
ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD)-61.95%-2.49%-257.96
Russell 2000 (index)+35.88%+1.64%+169.52
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM)+36.14%+1.55%+160.27
ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM)+65.11%+3.15%+326.32
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM)-63.82%-3.17%-327.96
NASDAQ-100 (index)+57.31%+1.16%+120.40
POWERSHARES QQQ (QQQQ)+57.40%+1.03%+106.87
ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD)+130.99%+2.12%+219.53
ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID)-67.13%-2.21%-229.13
S&P MidCap 400 (index)+43.14%+1.54%+159.23
ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 INDEX (IJH)+43.57%+1.36%+140.30
ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV)+87.84%+2.82%+291.60
ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ)-64.70%-2.92%-301.83
GREENHAVEN CONTINUOUS COMMODITY (GCC)+23.46%+0.57%+59.43
Amex Gold (index)+74.15%+5.42%+560.71
MV GOLD MINERS ETF (GDX)+73.83%+5.03%+520.18
SPDR GOLD SHARES (GLD)+38.88%+1.50%+155.66
ULTRA GOLD PROSHARES (UGL)+78.95%+2.89%+298.68
ULTRASHORT GOLD PROSHARES (GLL)-55.76%-2.98%-308.29
IPATH DJ AIG PLATINUM TR SUB-IDX (PGM)+94.41%+4.79%+495.49
PS DB GOLD DOUBLE SHORT ETN (DZZ)-54.15%-3.09%-319.60
PS DB GOLD DOUBLE LONG ETN (DGP)+83.04%+2.91%+301.01
ULTRA SILVER PROSHARES (AGQ)+143.09%+6.77%+700.55
ULTRASHORT SILVER PROSHARES (ZSL)-78.14%-6.62%-684.58
Semiconductor Sector (index)+59.97%+2.37%+245.09
ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD)+145.27%+5.72%+591.69
ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG)-75.34%-5.79%-598.79
ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SECTOR (IYF)+67.00%+0.29%+29.83
ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREAS BOND (TLT)-16.65%-1.43%-147.74
ISHARES 7-10 YEAR TREASURY (IEF)-5.50%-0.77%-80.04
ISHARES AGGREGATE BOND (AGG)+2.10%-0.58%-59.63
ISHARES IBOXX $ INVEST GRADE COR (LQD)+6.15%-0.92%-95.49
ISHARES 1-3 YEAR TREASURY BOND (SHY)-0.93%-0.66%-68.70
ProShares ETFs
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (TWQ)·-2.22%-229.54
ULTRASHORT 7-10 YEAR TREASURY PR (PST)-4.84%+1.04%+108.06
ULTRASHORT 20+ YEAR TREASURY PRO (TBT)+12.37%+2.33%+240.58
SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ)-41.00%-1.13%-116.61
SHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG)-30.54%-1.13%-117.33
SHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SH)-33.95%-1.19%-123.36
SHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MYY)-37.86%-1.46%-151.13
SHORT S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SBB)-34.86%-1.43%-148.44
SHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (RWM)-36.45%-1.73%-178.88
ULTRASHORT QQQ PROSHARES (QID)-67.13%-2.21%-229.13
ULTRASHORT DOW30 PROSHARES (DXD)-54.03%-2.32%-240.50
ULTRASHORT S&P500 PROSHARES (SDS)-58.94%-2.41%-249.07
ULTRASHORT MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MZZ)-64.70%-2.92%-301.83
ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SDD)-61.95%-2.49%-257.96
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (TWM)-63.82%-3.17%-327.96
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PR (SFK)-60.16%-2.80%-289.66
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP VAL PR (SJL)-70.03%-2.59%-267.75
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL MIDCAP GR PRO (SDK)-67.28%-3.10%-320.34
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 VALUE PRO (SJH)-64.34%-3.19%-329.56
ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PR (SKK)-70.07%-3.11%-321.21
ULTRASHORT BASIC MATERIALS PROSH (SMN)-80.21%-3.22%-332.60
ULTRASHORT CONSUMER GOODS PROSHA (SZK)-48.25%-2.92%-301.61
ULTRASHORT CONSUMER SERVICES PRO (SCC)-59.50%-2.65%-274.57
ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS PROSHARES (SKF)-87.84%-0.74%-76.19
ULTRASHORT HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXD)-42.85%-2.38%-246.17
ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (SIJ)-62.57%-2.73%-282.31
ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DUG)-55.65%-2.82%-292.09
ULTRASHORT REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (SRS)-88.09%-2.53%-261.29
ULTRASHORT SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHAR (SSG)-75.34%-5.79%-598.79
ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (REW)-71.36%-2.90%-299.50
ULTRASHORT UTILITIES PROSHARES (SDP)-50.75%-3.35%-346.16
SHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PROSHAR (EUM)-56.33%-2.79%-288.57
SHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFZ)-42.24%-2.75%-284.00
ULTRASHORT MSCI EAFE PROSHARES (EFU)-69.31%-5.59%-577.76
ULTRASHORT MSCI EMERGING MKTS PR (EEV)-83.51%-5.70%-589.37
ULTRASHORT MSCI JAPAN PROSHARES (EWV)-42.24%-7.23%-748.03
ULTRASHORT FTSE/XINHUA CHINA25 P (FXP)-84.61%-5.33%-551.90
ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD)+130.99%+2.12%+219.53
ULTRA DOW30 PROSHARES (DDM)+68.86%+2.29%+237.07
ULTRA S&P500 PROSHARES (SSO)+80.57%+2.28%+235.49
ULTRA MIDCAP400 PROSHARES (MVV)+87.84%+2.82%+291.60
ULTRA S&P SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES (SAA)+63.65%+2.72%+281.81
ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PROSHARES (UWM)+65.11%+3.15%+326.32
ULTRA RUSSELL1000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVG)+69.28%+2.32%+240.15
ULTRA RUSSELL1000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKF)+95.08%+2.45%+253.07
ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE PROSH (UVU)+82.50%+2.44%+252.87
ULTRA RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH PROS (UKW)+105.88%+3.12%+323.16
ULTRA RUSSELL2000 VALUE PROSHARE (UVT)+52.68%+2.98%+308.56
ULTRA RUSSELL2000 GROWTH PROSHAR (UKK)+77.44%+3.31%+342.73
ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHARES (UYM)+167.93%+3.30%+341.59
ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS PROSHARES (UGE)+62.55%+3.15%+325.41
ULTRA CONSUMER SERVICES PROSHARE (UCC)+85.14%+2.41%+249.51
ULTRA FINANCIALS PROSHARES (UYG)+108.06%+0.53%+54.93
ULTRA HEALTH CARE PROSHARES (RXL)+48.01%+2.50%+258.78
ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PROSHARES (UXI)+71.84%+2.75%+283.99
ULTRA OIL & GAS PROSHARES (DIG)+46.00%+2.88%+297.52
ULTRA REAL ESTATE PROSHARES (URE)+56.03%+2.81%+291.16
ULTRA SEMICONDUCTOR PROSHARES (USD)+145.27%+5.72%+591.69
ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PROSHARES (ROM)+156.59%+2.80%+289.88
ULTRA UTILITIES PROSHARES (UPW)+15.51%+3.70%+382.26
Other ETFs
PS NASDAQ INTERNET (PNQI)+104.94%+2.26%+233.88
PS DB BASE METALS DBLE SHRT ETN (BOM)-74.44%-5.47%-565.73
PS DB BASE METALS DBLE LONG ETN (BDD)+206.14%+4.25%+439.49
PS DB BASE METALS SHORT ETN (BOS)-47.70%-2.72%-280.89
PS DB CRUDE OIL DBLE SHORT ETN (DTO)-64.20%-2.37%-244.92
PS DB CRUDE OIL SHORT ETN (SZO)-35.72%-1.00%-102.93
PS DB CRUDE OIL LONG ETN (OLO)+50.00%+0.88%+90.94
IPATH S&P GSCI CRUDE OIL TTL RET (OIL)+37.18%+1.12%+115.96
IPATH DJ AIG NATURAL GAS TR SUB- (GAZ)-45.27%-2.44%-252.31
IPATH DJ AIG ENERGY TR SUB-IDX E (JJE)+6.39%-0.15%-16.00
MV AGRIBUSINESS ETF (MOO)+70.37%+3.04%+314.14
PS GLOBAL AGRICULTURE (PAGG)+71.63%+1.29%+133.84
PS DB AGRICULTURE (DBA)+6.82%+0.45%+46.86
IPATH DJ AIG AGRICULTURE TR SUB- (JJA)+13.98%+0.24%+25.25
ELEMENTS ROGERS INTL COMMODITY A (RJA)+10.50%-0.25%-25.80
IPATH DJ AIG COFFEE TR SUB-IDX E (JO)+11.88%+0.10%+10.21
IPATH DJ AIG COCOA TR SUB-IDX ET (NIB)+29.75%+3.50%+362.30
IPATH DJ AIG COTTON TR SUB-IDX E (BAL)+29.52%-1.42%-147.22
IPATH DJ AIG SUGAR TR SUB-IDX ET (SGG)+49.79%+0.61%+63.32
IPATH DJ AIG ALUMINUM TR SUB-IDX (JJU)+38.97%+1.78%+184.54
IPATH DJ AIG GRAINS TR SUB-IDX E (JJG)+4.80%-0.29%-29.50
IPATH DJ AIG COPPER TR SUB-IDX E (JJC)+111.98%+1.36%+140.37
IPATH DJ AIG LEAD TR SUB-IDX ETN (LD)+105.86%+4.43%+458.76
IPATH DJ AIG NICKEL TR SUB-IDX E (JJN)+45.32%-0.08%-8.47
IPATH DJ AIG TIN TR SUB-IDX ETN (JJT)+45.47%+0.87%+90.36
ULTRASHORT EURO PROSHARES (EUO)-31.12%-0.94%-97.36
ULTRASHORT YEN PROSHARES (YCS)-11.51%+0.32%+33.32
PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BULLISH (UUP)-15.54%-0.45%-46.66
PS DB US DOLLAR INDEX BEARISH (UDN)+16.22%+0.52%+54.14
Classic ETFs
BIOTECH HOLDRS (BBH)-41.49%+0.97%+99.95
ISHARES NASDAQ BIOTECHNOLOGY (IBB)+17.02%+1.47%+151.72
ISHARES COHEN & STEERS REALTY MA (ICF)+44.94%+1.23%+126.97
ISHARES DJ US UTILITIES (IDU)+7.81%+1.61%+166.52
ISHARES S&P NORTH AMER NATURAL R (IGE)+50.26%+1.79%+185.54
ISHARES S&P NORTH AMER TECHNOLOG (IGM)+65.68%+1.23%+127.02
ISHARES S&P NORTH AMER TECH-MULT (IGN)+61.42%+2.19%+226.38
ISHARES S&P NORTH AMER TECH-SOFT (IGV)+52.44%+1.83%+189.62
ISHARES S&P NORTH AMER TECH-SEMI (IGW)+69.16%+3.23%+334.01
ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 VALUE IND (IJJ)+38.87%+1.40%+144.81
ISHARES S&P MIDCAP 400 GROWTH IN (IJK)+48.01%+1.58%+163.92
ISHARES S&P SMALLCAP 600 INDEX (IJR)+34.99%+1.50%+155.04
ISHARES S&P SMALLCAP 600 VALUE I (IJS)+34.41%+1.71%+177.31
ISHARES S&P SMALLCAP 600 GROWTH (IJT)+35.51%+1.24%+127.86
ISHARES S&P 500 VALUE INDEX (IVE)+36.93%+1.18%+122.31
ISHARES RUSSELL 1000 INDEX (IWB)+39.08%+1.20%+123.71
ISHARES RUSSELL 1000 VALUE INDEX (IWD)+35.02%+1.22%+125.69
ISHARES RUSSELL 1000 GROWTH INDE (IWF)+42.87%+1.21%+125.66
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (IWM)+36.14%+1.55%+160.27
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 VALUE INDEX (IWN)+32.08%+1.90%+196.37
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDE (IWO)+40.40%+1.59%+164.07
ISHARES RUSSELL MIDCAP GROWTH IN (IWP)+49.42%+1.59%+164.24
ISHARES RUSSELL MIDCAP INDEX (IWR)+46.02%+1.54%+159.54
ISHARES RUSSELL MIDCAP VALUE IND (IWS)+41.77%+1.22%+125.73
ISHARES RUSSELL 3000 INDEX (IWV)+38.93%+1.13%+116.62
ISHARES RUSSELL 3000 VALUE INDEX (IWW)+34.66%+1.15%+118.86
ISHARES RUSSELL 3000 GROWTH INDE (IWZ)+42.81%+1.32%+136.95
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL ENERGY (IXC)+38.35%+2.00%+206.67
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL FINANCIALS (IXG)+87.98%+1.50%+155.10
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL HEALTHCARE (IXJ)+22.46%+1.27%+131.02
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY (IXN)+57.69%+1.87%+193.05
ISHARES S&P GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICA (IXP)+26.75%+2.05%+212.18
ISHARES DJ US CONSUMER SERVICES (IYC)+40.00%+1.30%+134.70
ISHARES DJ US ENERGY (IYE)+29.07%+1.47%+152.04
ISHARES DJ US FINANCIAL SERVICES (IYG)+88.53%+0.02%+1.89
ISHARES DJ US HEALTHCARE (IYH)+23.52%+1.27%+130.91
ISHARES DJ US INDUSTRIAL (IYJ)+36.84%+1.50%+155.05
ISHARES DJ US CONSUMER GOODS (IYK)+27.76%+1.45%+149.65
ISHARES DJ US BASIC MATERIALS (IYM)+75.92%+1.46%+151.41
ISHARES DJ US REAL ESTATE (IYR)+46.99%+1.29%+133.42
ISHARES DJ TRANSPORTATION AVERAG (IYT)+35.32%+1.13%+116.94
ISHARES DJ US TECHNOLOGY (IYW)·+1.37%+141.45
ISHARES DJ U.S. INDEX (IYY)+39.24%+1.20%+123.88
ISHARES DJ US TELECOM (IYZ)+23.98%+1.83%+189.30
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR LARGE CORE I (JKD)+34.05%+0.96%+99.60
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR LARGE GROWTH (JKE)+50.22%+1.12%+116.34
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR LARGE VALUE (JKF)+27.24%+1.08%+112.11
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR MID CORE IND (JKG)+43.99%+1.38%+142.50
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR MID GROWTH I (JKH)+45.33%+1.48%+153.35
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR MID VALUE IN (JKI)+45.47%+1.63%+168.39
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR SMALL CORE I (JKJ)+48.37%+1.84%+190.20
ISHARES MORNINGSTAR SMALL VALUE (JKL)+51.62%+1.87%+193.53
MIDCAP SPDRS (MDY)+43.38%+1.48%+153.55
ISHARES NYSE 100 INDEX (NY)+29.40%+1.29%+133.62
ISHARES S&P 100 INDEX (OEF)+35.71%+1.11%+114.85
OIL SERVICES HOLDRS (OIH)+75.52%+1.19%+123.19
FIDELITY NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX (ONEQ)+50.05%+1.40%+144.36
RYDEX S&P EQUAL WEIGHT (RSP)+53.81%+1.27%+130.98
SEMICONDUCTOR HOLDRS (SMH)+59.46%+2.91%+300.68
MATERIALS SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLB)+55.76%+1.94%+200.53
ENERGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLE)+30.66%+1.32%+136.55
FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLF)+81.56%+0.07%+7.06
INDUSTRIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLI)+34.36%+1.64%+169.22
TECHNOLOGY SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLK)+54.22%+1.61%+166.47
CONSUMER STAPLES SELECT SECTOR S (XLP)+19.71%+1.38%+142.93
UTILITIES SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLU)+6.76%+1.88%+194.66
HEALTH CARE SELECT SECTOR SPDR (XLV)+22.77%+1.76%+182.08
CONSUMER DISCRET SELECT SECTOR S (XLY)+49.85%+1.57%+162.65
300% Leverage ETFs
DIREXION DAILY 10-YE (TYD)·-2.31%-239.11
DIREXION 10Y BEAR (TYO)·+2.04%+210.97
DIREXION DAILY 30Y T (TMF)·-4.09%-422.72
DIREXION DAILY 30Y B (TMV)·+3.96%+410.14
DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BULL 3X (BGU)+96.42%+3.58%+369.98
DIREXION DAILY LARGE CAP BEAR 3X (BGZ)-77.09%-3.52%-363.66
DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X S (MWJ)+102.30%+4.08%+421.60
DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BEAR 3X S (MWN)-64.71%-4.42%-457.58
DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X (TNA)+60.28%+4.57%+472.41
DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X (TZA)-82.00%-4.84%-500.82
DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BULL 3X SH (ERX)+34.33%+3.90%+403.77
DIREXION DAILY ENERGY BEAR 3X SH (ERY)-74.48%-4.11%-424.77
DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X (FAS)+99.24%+0.77%+79.54
DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X (FAZ)-97.80%-0.97%-100.33
DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3 (TYH)+218.74%+4.34%+448.68
DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BEAR 3 (TYP)-86.48%-4.23%-437.11
DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BULL (DZK)+130.98%+8.19%+846.96
DIREXION DAILY DEVLPD MRKTS BEAR (DPK)-84.59%-7.81%-807.78
DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BULL 3 (EDC)+302.03%+8.09%+836.53
DIREXION DAILY EMRG MRKTS BEAR 3 (EDZ)-94.53%-8.08%-835.76
PROSHARES (UPRO)·+3.29%+339.97
PROSHARES (SPXU)·-3.41%-352.66




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