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Thursday, January 29, 2009
"Bad Bank" Idea Not So Popular
The idea of a "bad bank" apparently is getting some headwinds from various quarters and it was downplayed by the Treasury Secretary on Thursday. This discouraged stock market traders, who had cited the idea as the basis for buying bank stocks on Wednesday, and led to a retracement of that move on Thursday:
Change From 28 Jan 2009 To 29 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.70% | -226.44 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.57% | -215.19 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -5.12% | -428.62 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +5.24% | +438.81 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -3.22% | -269.73 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -3.25% | -272.18 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -6.13% | -513.41 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +6.09% | +510.00 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -3.65% | -305.33 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -3.67% | -307.31 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -4.32% | -361.78 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -8.31% | -695.78 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +4.21% | +352.84 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +8.22% | +688.29 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -4.18% | -350.23 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.92% | -327.93 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -7.83% | -655.80 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +7.84% | +656.90 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.38% | -199.51 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -2.54% | -212.49 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -4.81% | -402.72 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +4.97% | +415.86 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -3.46% | -289.54 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -3.46% | -289.68 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -6.98% | -584.90 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +6.67% | +558.56 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -0.96% | -80.42 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.95% | +414.76 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +5.10% | +427.35 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.39% | +200.26 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -4.97% | -416.36 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +5.22% | +437.02 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.61% | -386.06 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -8.89% | -744.35 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +9.83% | +823.01 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -7.20% | -603.28 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -2.30% | -192.62 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -1.30% | -109.07 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.89% | -74.43 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -1.20% | -100.18 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.19% | -15.88 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +2.59% | +217.23 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +5.61% | +470.14 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +2.50% | +209.03 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +2.43% | +203.11 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +3.09% | +258.93 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +3.40% | +284.50 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +4.21% | +352.84 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +3.93% | +329.03 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +4.97% | +415.86 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +5.24% | +438.81 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +6.09% | +510.00 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +6.67% | +558.56 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +8.22% | +688.29 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +7.84% | +656.90 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +4.68% | +392.33 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +5.22% | +437.44 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | +8.72% | +730.51 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +5.98% | +501.24 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +9.68% | +810.34 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +6.77% | +566.71 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +6.40% | +535.72 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +1.94% | +162.14 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +5.96% | +499.09 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +13.67% | +1144.58 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +1.35% | +112.94 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +7.28% | +609.38 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +6.42% | +537.97 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +13.79% | +1154.94 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +9.83% | +823.01 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +6.02% | +504.34 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +0.99% | +82.77 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +5.09% | +425.96 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +4.53% | +379.74 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +8.71% | +729.34 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +9.46% | +792.73 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +7.16% | +599.79 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +11.19% | +937.57 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -4.81% | -402.72 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -5.12% | -428.62 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -6.13% | -513.41 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -6.98% | -584.90 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -8.31% | -695.78 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -7.83% | -655.80 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -7.61% | -637.43 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -5.04% | -421.78 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -8.69% | -727.81 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -5.84% | -489.11 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -8.70% | -729.03 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -6.42% | -538.09 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -6.30% | -527.64 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -2.94% | -245.89 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -6.12% | -512.78 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -14.14% | -1184.41 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -2.05% | -171.62 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -6.76% | -565.97 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -6.91% | -579.08 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -14.85% | -1243.72 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -8.89% | -744.35 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -6.02% | -504.59 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -1.33% | -111.67 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -3.61% | -302.18 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +4.36% | +365.06 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -3.24% | -271.27 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +0.35% | +29.14 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +2.78% | +232.53 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +1.11% | +92.65 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -0.37% | -31.14 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +0.11% | +8.84 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -8.71% | -729.21 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +9.50% | +795.26 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -10.95% | -917.13 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +11.51% | +963.87 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -10.82% | -906.20 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +10.38% | +868.98 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -19.94% | -1669.66 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +19.32% | +1618.44 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Taxpayers, Let's Buy Another Trillion Dollars of Toxic Bank Debt
The market celebrated the idea that taxpayers would be eager to buy about a trillion dollars more of toxic debt. That's the implication of the government's latest plan to create a "Bad Bank" that would buy (at inflated prices of course) all of the toxic debt that's rightfully killing the banks after they ran a criminal Ponzi scheme to its ultimate conclusion. This sounds like a great plan for the banks. They get rid of their bad debt and taxpayers get a full load of it. We're sure this makes everyone happy---not!
Now, what we really need is for the government to take a stand here and demand that the banks sell all of this toxic debt in the market and take their losses. Once the toxic debt is gone, the banks that survive will be strong. Those who are insolvent get what they deserve: death. The first bank to take the pill should be Citibank, the biggest organized crime operation in history. Putting them under should be priority one for the government to clean up the banking system.
It's time to admit that the government allowed these banks to become too big. The only medicine for this economy is to take them out and let the strong banks thrive.
Federal Reserve Bank: Building a Bigger Bubble
The Fed is trying to reflate the economy. In plain talk, that says that the Fed is blowing a bigger bubble. Their current tactic is to buy US Treasury securities to keep interest rates low. This discourages long term investors from parking their cash in safe investments and encourages them to take on more risk by buying corporate debt and stocks.
Will the Fed be able to construct an even-larger financial bubble? Given their track record and the fact that the currency is backed only by faith in the United States government (despite the fact that the Fed isn't a part of the government), the answer has to be, "Yes." By treating the alcoholic hangover (excessive credit) with the "hair of the dog" treatment (more credit), the Fed is simply reflating the same old tired wretch of an economy in the hopes that the ultimate outcome will be better. This is the same thing they've been doing for the last thirty years and it's exactly what has gotten the economy into its present shape. Like the definition of insanity, doing what they've done over and over isn't going to change the outcome. It might delay the ultimate reckoning of course, but ultimately the entire financial system is going to be destroyed by this obsession with infinite credit creation.
Out of Work? Try a Ponzi Scheme
Considering how long Ponzi schemes seem to last (decades), how large they grow (tens of billions of dollars) and how hard it is for government to discover them (never), laid-off employees might consider starting a Ponzi scheme. It's criminal, you might get caught, but it certainly pays better than the old 9-5.
If you're worried about going to prison, just call yourself a bank. No one will ever charge you with a crime and you'll get to keep the profits even after you get caught. Remember, the modern banking motto is, "Privatize gains, socialize losses."
Colleges need to offer a new degree---MPS: Master of Ponzi Schemes.
Adding to Our Bottom Line
Stocks continued to move up on Wednesday as the shorts were forced to cover:
Change From 27 Jan 2009 To 28 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +2.46% | +200.72 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +2.66% | +217.63 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +5.16% | +422.11 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -5.12% | -418.56 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +3.17% | +259.53 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +3.38% | +276.59 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +6.76% | +552.83 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -6.90% | -564.42 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +3.50% | +286.08 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +3.34% | +273.10 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +3.79% | +309.57 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +7.12% | +581.96 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -3.67% | -300.03 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -7.25% | -592.92 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +3.83% | +312.94 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +4.12% | +336.86 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +7.52% | +614.46 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -8.05% | -658.09 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +3.07% | +250.56 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +3.51% | +287.18 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +6.67% | +545.40 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -6.88% | -562.64 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +3.71% | +303.15 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +3.99% | +326.15 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +7.70% | +629.39 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -7.83% | -640.35 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.34% | +109.86 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -2.07% | -169.02 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -2.21% | -180.74 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.10% | -89.72 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +2.48% | +203.08 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -2.36% | -193.21 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.44% | +199.78 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +5.00% | +408.44 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -5.67% | -463.84 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +11.03% | +901.94 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -2.50% | -204.26 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.64% | -52.46 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.06% | +4.79 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | +0.79% | +64.89 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.04% | -2.90 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +1.03% | +84.48 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +3.78% | +309.37 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -3.43% | -280.51 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -2.26% | -184.80 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -3.25% | -265.95 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -3.44% | -280.85 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -3.67% | -300.03 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -3.77% | -307.89 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -6.88% | -562.64 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -5.12% | -418.56 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -6.90% | -564.42 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -7.83% | -640.35 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -7.25% | -592.92 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -8.05% | -658.09 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -4.98% | -407.21 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -5.36% | -438.55 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -10.37% | -847.65 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -7.53% | -615.42 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -8.14% | -665.78 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -6.95% | -568.52 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -7.97% | -651.19 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -2.66% | -217.30 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -5.68% | -464.68 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | -21.74% | -1777.25 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -1.62% | -132.40 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -5.47% | -447.18 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -4.50% | -367.52 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -16.30% | -1332.17 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -5.67% | -463.84 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -6.08% | -497.36 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -1.36% | -110.78 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -5.35% | -437.44 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -3.14% | -256.80 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -5.82% | -476.04 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -10.19% | -833.27 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -3.63% | -296.49 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -7.69% | -628.39 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +6.67% | +545.40 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +5.16% | +422.11 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +6.76% | +552.83 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +7.70% | +629.39 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +7.12% | +581.96 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +7.52% | +614.46 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +7.08% | +578.84 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +5.00% | +409.12 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +8.55% | +698.80 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +6.82% | +557.25 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +7.50% | +613.10 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +6.11% | +499.11 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +6.64% | +542.88 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +3.18% | +260.28 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | +5.99% | +489.67 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | +20.36% | +1664.76 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +2.23% | +182.51 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +5.70% | +466.26 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +4.04% | +329.86 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +15.15% | +1238.60 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +5.00% | +408.44 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +5.92% | +483.55 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +1.41% | +115.34 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +2.34% | +191.16 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -2.95% | -241.32 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -1.20% | -98.10 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | -0.52% | -42.45 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | -1.08% | -88.05 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | -0.36% | -29.28 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +5.08% | +415.12 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +2.05% | +167.37 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +8.91% | +728.06 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -9.84% | -804.54 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +11.50% | +940.14 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -11.74% | -959.35 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +7.60% | +621.15 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -6.74% | -550.59 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +32.69% | +2672.17 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | -31.75% | -2595.83 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
Subscriber Links: MyClues Home
· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Waiting For Redemption
The stock market has been stuck in a relatively narrow trading range for more than a week now as it awaits a hoped-for solution to the global financial catastophe which has held the markets hostage for the last two years. Can the new Administration work miracles on the global financial system? Hope springs eternal for redemption and the market is reflecting that hope.
Change From 26 Jan 2009 To 27 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.72% | +58.70 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.54% | +44.05 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.25% | +101.60 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.39% | -112.72 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.89% | +72.57 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +1.02% | +82.44 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +2.18% | +177.30 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -2.13% | -173.03 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.35% | +109.61 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.54% | +124.99 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.29% | +104.69 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +2.57% | +208.34 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.21% | -98.52 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.67% | -216.87 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.23% | +99.54 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.09% | +88.59 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.40% | +194.90 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.41% | -195.93 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.66% | +53.17 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +0.72% | +58.55 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +1.65% | +133.62 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.62% | -131.45 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.42% | +115.21 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.19% | +96.85 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.60% | +211.24 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.71% | -220.25 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -2.18% | -176.60 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.90% | -153.97 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.47% | -119.46 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.64% | -52.01 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +1.28% | +103.83 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -1.14% | -92.71 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.52% | +285.76 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +6.75% | +547.43 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -6.45% | -523.48 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.76% | +223.96 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +2.35% | +190.83 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.66% | +53.27 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.51% | +41.45 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | +1.88% | +152.87 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.11% | +8.66 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -1.44% | -116.62 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -4.41% | -357.67 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -1.02% | -83.13 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -0.92% | -74.91 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -1.08% | -87.42 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -1.48% | -119.84 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.21% | -98.52 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -1.33% | -108.12 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.62% | -131.45 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.39% | -112.72 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -2.13% | -173.03 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.71% | -220.25 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.67% | -216.87 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.41% | -195.93 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -2.43% | -196.91 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -2.40% | -194.81 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | +1.04% | +84.59 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +0.02% | +2.02 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -2.22% | -179.94 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -2.87% | -233.14 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -2.92% | -236.85 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -0.96% | -78.24 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -0.26% | -20.76 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | -5.87% | -476.13 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -3.80% | -308.07 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -4.40% | -357.40 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +0.25% | +20.51 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -2.44% | -197.69 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -6.45% | -523.48 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -2.95% | -239.61 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -0.87% | -70.77 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -1.75% | -141.92 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -1.84% | -148.97 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -3.99% | -324.21 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -3.42% | -277.51 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -6.31% | -511.90 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -3.72% | -302.13 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +1.65% | +133.62 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.25% | +101.60 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +2.18% | +177.30 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.60% | +211.24 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +2.57% | +208.34 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.40% | +194.90 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +2.46% | +199.98 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +2.32% | +188.20 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +2.42% | +196.01 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +1.11% | +89.71 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.04% | +165.63 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +2.43% | +197.11 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +3.02% | +245.35 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +0.87% | +70.86 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -0.33% | -26.92 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | +8.22% | +667.44 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +4.43% | +359.78 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +3.82% | +309.91 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +0.28% | +22.85 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +5.24% | +425.21 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +6.75% | +547.43 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +3.22% | +261.43 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +0.41% | +33.54 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +0.68% | +55.31 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +9.35% | +758.75 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -5.66% | -459.40 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +3.87% | +313.70 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +12.91% | +1048.10 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +9.16% | +743.37 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -6.23% | -505.39 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -4.13% | -335.37 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +3.80% | +308.10 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -3.59% | -291.29 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +3.55% | +287.97 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -3.56% | -288.62 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -0.11% | -8.80 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -0.23% | -19.05 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +7.51% | +609.88 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | -8.42% | -683.54 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Monday, January 26, 2009
Monday, Monday: 77,000 Layoffs and Counting
The Wall Street Journal reported that banks really are hoarding TARP funds:
Lending at many of the nation's largest banks fell in recent months, even after they received $148 billion in taxpayer capital that was intended to help the economy by making loans more readily available.
Ten of the 13 big beneficiaries of the Treasury Department's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, saw their outstanding loan balances decline by a total of about $46 billion, or 1.4%, between the third and fourth quarters of 2008, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of banks that recently announced their quarterly results.
Surprise---not!
Your Tax Dollars At Work (article about Citicorp buying a new corporate jet for only $50 Million of taxpayer money).
But, it appears that some of the second half of the TARP money may find its way into consumers' hands, as reported by Bloomberg.com:
President Barack Obama's administration will direct more of the second half of a $700 billion financial rescue plan to open up credit for consumers and businesses and stem home foreclosures, his spokesman said.
The president has asked his economic advisers for recommendations "specifically addressing home foreclosures; addressing financial stability in banks," Gibbs said in today's regular White House news briefing. He refused to give details.
Obama and lawmakers in Congress have criticized the way the fund was used, saying it was spent with too little accountability or transparency.
Obama is set to unveil a financial rescue plan that is likely to be larger and more ambitious than originally planned as the economy and banking system worsen.
Lawrence Summers, director of the White House National Economic Council, said yesterday the $350 billion in the TARP program will get the next phase of the rescue started.
"What ultimately will be necessary is something that will play out over time," he said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
Obama's plan will initially include between $50 billion and $100 billion for foreclosure-mitigation programs and an unspecified amount of money to stabilize undercapitalized banks to unlock the flow of credit to consumers and businesses, Summers said. He didn't provide details of any other measures the administration is considering to help the banking system.
Obama also is trying to build bipartisan support for an economic stimulus plan. He is meeting tomorrow with Republican members of the House and Senate, Gibbs said.
Caterpillar Inc., Sprint Nextel Corp. and Home Depot Inc. led companies announcing plans today to cut at least 77,000 jobs as sales withered and construction slowed amid the global economic decline.
Obama, citing the job cuts at those companies as well as at Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. last week, said Congress must act quickly to approve economic stimulus legislation. Lawmakers are debating an $825 billion package of tax cuts and new federal spending backed by the president.
"We owe it to each of them and to every single American to act with a sense of urgency and common purpose," he said at the White House. "We can't afford distractions, and we cannot afford delays."
Danger From China's Currency Manipulation
One of the biggest obstacles to recovery from this Depression is going to be China and their tendency to manipulate their currency to their advantage (and to our disadvantage). After benefitting from a manipulated exchange rate for decades and driving most of their competitors out of business in the American market (including many American firms), the Chinese are finding it difficult to keep their workers employed. That's very bad news since unemployed Chinese tend to be very unhappy and start riots.
In past recessions, the Chinese have devalued their currency to gain competitive advantages. And, it appears they are planning to do the same thing to emerge from this recession. Fortunately, Obama is taking the offensive on this front and sending a strong message. His Treasury Secretary laid his cards on the table as he challenged the Chinese to forego their usual currency manipulation strategy:
President Obama -- backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists -- believes that China is manipulating its currency. President Obama has pledged as President to use aggressively all the diplomatic avenues open to him to seek change in China's currency practices.
Some think this is a declaration of trade war, but when a President stands up for Americans over foreigners when the latter try to take advantage of our perceived "weakness," it's simply good policy. It's something we haven't seen in quite a while and a very welcome change from the previous Administration, which was apparently afraid of confronting China for fear that they would stop buying Treasury bonds to finance the gargantuan deficits run up by the last Republican Administration.
China's incredible (as in, "not credible") response was:
China has never used so-called currency manipulation to gain benefits in its international trade. Directing unsubstantiated criticism at China on the exchange-rate issue will only help US protectionism and will not help towards a real solution to the issue.
The first step in negotiations is to lay the groundwork. Sounds to us like Obama and Geithner have drawn a line in the sand over which China will not be allowed to pass. The score so far: US 1, China 0.
One final note on China's role in the current depression: They were a contributing factor by buying up Treasury bonds and driving mortgage rates to rock-bottom levels which encouraged industry lenders like Countrywide, Bear Stearns and other banks to create products which artificially elevated home affordability, leading to our massive meltdown in the financial system. We don't really need China to buy our government debt---we can print money and avoid making interest payments to the communist country. Now, there's a good idea.
An Overvalued Stock Market
The stock market remains substantially overvalued at current levels. S&P Corporation estimates that S&P 500 earnings were $41.88 in 2008. At Monday's closing level, that means that stocks are trading at just about 20 times trailing earnings. Historically, bear markets tend to end when the PE Ratio hits just 10. In other words, the S&P 500 is overvalued by 100% by that metric. But, that's never stopped "irrational exuberance" from working its magic powers on the human psyche:
Change From 23 Jan 2009 To 26 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.48% | +38.47 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.68% | +55.17 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.12% | +90.22 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.05% | -84.89 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.66% | +53.70 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.69% | +55.40 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.99% | +80.01 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -1.11% | -89.63 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.94% | +76.27 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.73% | +59.27 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.84% | +148.28 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.80% | +145.42 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.31% | -105.68 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.54% | -205.13 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.95% | +157.54 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.13% | +90.98 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.14% | +172.73 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.14% | -172.51 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.88% | +71.33 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +0.73% | +58.70 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +1.51% | +122.14 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.54% | -124.69 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.59% | +48.01 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.66% | +53.36 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.20% | +97.05 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -1.18% | -95.71 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.01% | +81.37 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.93% | -75.48 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.50% | -40.22 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.47% | +38.32 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -0.89% | -71.69 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +0.84% | +67.67 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +1.25% | +101.32 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +1.67% | +135.27 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -1.91% | -154.11 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.54% | -124.05 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.87% | -70.51 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.25% | -20.15 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.10% | -7.93 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.89% | -72.11 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.13% | -10.52 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +0.07% | +5.88 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +1.99% | +160.76 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -0.59% | -47.62 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -0.58% | -46.87 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.67% | -54.14 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -0.75% | -60.31 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.31% | -105.68 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -0.94% | -76.30 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.54% | -124.69 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.05% | -84.89 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -1.11% | -89.63 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -1.18% | -95.71 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.54% | -205.13 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.14% | -172.51 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -1.62% | -130.47 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -0.75% | -60.37 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -0.82% | -65.92 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -2.44% | -197.47 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -2.27% | -183.08 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -2.17% | -175.31 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +4.39% | +354.76 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -1.83% | -147.99 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -1.19% | -96.12 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +2.85% | +229.94 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +0.70% | +56.63 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -1.89% | -152.68 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -3.57% | -288.72 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +1.05% | +84.42 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -1.91% | -154.11 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -2.00% | -161.63 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -4.26% | -344.46 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -1.39% | -112.18 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -1.92% | -155.39 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -3.76% | -303.61 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -2.73% | -220.63 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +0.53% | +42.68 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -0.57% | -46.27 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +1.51% | +122.14 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.12% | +90.22 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.99% | +80.01 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.20% | +97.05 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.80% | +145.42 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.14% | +172.73 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +0.97% | +78.15 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +0.93% | +74.83 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +2.55% | +206.32 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +1.72% | +138.90 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.54% | +205.26 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +3.07% | +247.68 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -2.63% | -212.73 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +1.62% | +130.53 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | +1.46% | +117.79 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -4.40% | -355.62 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -1.03% | -82.85 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +3.49% | +282.21 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +3.27% | +264.16 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -4.36% | -351.96 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +1.67% | +135.27 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +1.46% | +118.21 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +4.86% | +392.50 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +0.87% | +70.68 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -6.15% | -496.84 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +7.29% | +588.65 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | -2.92% | -236.12 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +0.93% | +75.28 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | -1.80% | -145.54 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -1.80% | -145.28 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +0.31% | +25.11 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +1.10% | +88.99 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -1.69% | -136.16 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +2.72% | +219.96 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -2.95% | -238.56 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +4.77% | +385.41 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -4.70% | -379.48 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -4.00% | -322.74 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +4.24% | +342.53 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 25, 2009
As Goes January, So Goes the Year
One of the best predictors of the year ahead in stocks is the January Barometer. It says that the market will simply play out the same pattern over the entire year that it played out in January. As we have seen, we opened the year on a rally which quickly peaked and, for the last three weeks, we've seen nothing but downside moves in stocks. If this is what's ahead, it's going to be another Year of the Bear no matter what that lunar calendar says it is (we're told it's the Year of the Ox in the Chinese lunisolar calendar).
If the barometer is to be correct, we should see a rally into February, then down for most of the year thereafter. Sounds like the honeymoon period for Obama might be pretty short, doesn't it?
Once again we get to say, "Happy New Year" --- the new lunar year begins tomorrow. It's also Australia Day, which commemorates the day the British fleet sailed into Sydney Harbour in 1788 (some indigenous Australians insist on calling it "Invasion Day" for some reason).
We're not the only ones viewing this depression as "Greater Depression" (or "Great Depression II", etc.): On the Road to 33% Unemployment
Change From 22 Jan 2009 To 23 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.56% | -45.24 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.79% | -64.05 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -1.40% | -113.31 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +1.39% | +113.19 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.34% | +27.78 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.44% | +35.34 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.86% | +70.09 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.61% | -49.77 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.46% | +37.49 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.65% | +53.14 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -0.45% | -36.68 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +0.41% | +33.15 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -0.08% | -6.40 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -0.49% | -39.80 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -0.32% | -25.68 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.50% | +40.46 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.40% | +113.97 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -1.07% | -86.88 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.25% | +19.96 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +0.49% | +39.54 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +0.40% | +32.45 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.01% | -81.84 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.96% | +78.02 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.22% | +98.76 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.56% | +207.88 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.15% | -174.72 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.91% | +155.41 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +9.10% | +739.48 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +8.52% | +691.96 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +4.67% | +379.35 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -9.00% | -731.05 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +10.02% | +814.15 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.65% | +296.50 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +8.76% | +711.54 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -8.27% | -671.40 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +2.86% | +231.94 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.78% | -63.61 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.02% | +1.69 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.16% | -12.73 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.67% | -54.03 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.02% | -1.92 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +0.77% | +62.57 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +1.54% | +125.42 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -0.44% | -35.75 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +0.82% | +66.31 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.26% | -20.89 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -0.96% | -77.86 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -0.08% | -6.40 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -0.40% | -32.59 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.01% | -81.84 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +1.39% | +113.19 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.61% | -49.77 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.15% | -174.72 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -0.49% | -39.80 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -1.07% | -86.88 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -0.59% | -47.55 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -2.11% | -171.78 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -0.22% | -17.64 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -1.66% | -135.04 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -0.69% | -56.25 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -0.13% | -10.16 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -5.97% | -484.77 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +2.02% | +163.88 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +1.19% | +96.95 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | -5.30% | -430.22 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -0.45% | -36.44 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +5.21% | +423.06 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -4.68% | -380.51 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -5.48% | -445.23 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -8.27% | -671.40 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -3.04% | -246.94 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -0.47% | -38.31 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -0.97% | -79.12 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +0.29% | +23.46 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +1.12% | +90.93 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -2.00% | -162.43 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -0.20% | -15.94 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -6.26% | -508.30 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +0.40% | +32.45 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -1.40% | -113.31 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.86% | +70.09 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.56% | +207.88 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +0.41% | +33.15 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.40% | +113.97 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +0.63% | +50.84 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +1.53% | +124.66 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -0.62% | -49.99 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +2.02% | +164.43 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +1.29% | +104.53 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -0.25% | -20.28 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +4.03% | +327.27 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -1.65% | -134.16 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -0.78% | -63.28 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | +5.30% | +430.35 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +0.09% | +6.95 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -5.52% | -448.34 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +4.40% | +357.45 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +6.99% | +568.03 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +8.76% | +711.54 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +4.01% | +325.57 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +0.84% | +68.45 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -0.37% | -30.35 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -6.12% | -497.05 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +8.10% | +657.64 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | -3.54% | -287.17 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | -10.08% | -819.13 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | -5.58% | -453.09 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +12.55% | +1019.46 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +4.66% | +378.83 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +1.85% | +149.93 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -1.41% | -114.41 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +1.75% | +141.96 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -1.86% | -150.79 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +6.70% | +543.98 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -7.17% | -582.01 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +7.52% | +610.66 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | -8.81% | -715.35 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Building a Bigger Bubble
As you know, the last thirty years have seen bubble after bubble blown by our financial "intelligentia" to hide the fact that our economy is out of balance and badly in need of restructuring. Each time a bubble bursts, the "authorities" come up with another Rube Goldberg scheme to keep the game going. If this sounds like Bernie Madoff is at the controls, you get the picture. So far, this pyramiding scheme has used financial debt to construct ever-loftier bubbles and keep the economic pie expanding.
The question before us today is whether or not this pyramid has reached an untenable level such that one more bubble is not possible. It appears that the financial "authorities" are simply relying upon that same old, tired conundrum again---more debt piled on top of old debt. This time, the governments of the world are being asked to back the debts created in private banks. Indirectly, of course, that means that the folly and enormous wealth concentrated in the hands of a few capitalist elites are being backed by the hard labor of the common taxpayer.
In Great Britain, for example, the government is planning to tackle the problem by nationalizing the banks, something the US has been doing in a slow, unmethodical way for the last two years. The problem in Britain, however, is that the Pound is not the world's reserve currency and there is far less in reserves than the debt to be assumed. In other words, if the government were treated as a bank and assumes this debt, it will be technically insolvent. This could present problems. The next entity to be bailed out by the US government is likely to be the government of Great Britain. An infusion of dollars, still the reserve currency of the world, is likely to be necessary to keep the Ponzi scheme running.
But, who will bail out the United States government? China? Perhaps they will. Perhaps they will instead decide to cut their losses and stop paying for our lifestyle choices. Do we want to take that chance? And, if we do get bailed out this time, what will happen when the bubble is larger next time?
At some point, the outcome is certain. That point, a serious inflection point, will come when the final bubble bursts and the common man rises up and overthrows the capitalist elites who destroyed the system with their greed. The only question is whether we are about to reach that bursting point soon or whether the current situation will be turned into yet another huge bubble of debt that keeps the boat afloat for one more round. If the latter, the market is due for one huge bear market rally starting soon before collapsing utterly.
Stocks gyrated in the range they have been trading within all week on Thursday:
Change From 21 Jan 2009 To 22 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.28% | -105.30 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.31% | -108.05 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -2.54% | -209.01 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +2.68% | +220.21 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -1.55% | -127.69 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -1.55% | -127.26 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -2.91% | -239.44 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +2.74% | +225.82 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -1.94% | -159.62 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -1.88% | -155.02 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.88% | -237.24 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -5.30% | -436.17 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.03% | +249.70 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +6.01% | +494.85 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.04% | -249.85 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.90% | -238.76 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -5.83% | -479.35 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +5.55% | +456.42 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.47% | -120.95 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -1.34% | -110.08 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -2.11% | -173.76 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +2.58% | +212.61 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.27% | -186.69 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.61% | -214.35 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -4.74% | -390.05 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.00% | +411.21 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -0.28% | -22.97 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.87% | -71.30 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.60% | -49.39 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.51% | +42.04 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -0.69% | -56.57 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +0.40% | +33.31 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.53% | -208.13 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -5.80% | -477.28 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +5.14% | +422.98 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.51% | -453.44 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.92% | -158.36 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.66% | -54.38 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.43% | -35.31 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.37% | -30.57 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.05% | +3.90 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +0.91% | +74.62 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +2.80% | +230.48 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +1.13% | +93.24 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +1.17% | +96.27 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +1.42% | +116.95 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +2.13% | +174.89 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.03% | +249.70 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +2.71% | +223.33 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +2.58% | +212.61 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +2.68% | +220.21 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +2.74% | +225.82 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.00% | +411.21 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +6.01% | +494.85 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +5.55% | +456.42 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +2.78% | +228.78 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +3.04% | +250.04 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -0.64% | -52.37 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +0.28% | +22.70 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +4.92% | +404.63 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +4.44% | +365.37 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +5.09% | +419.04 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +1.28% | +105.21 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -0.12% | -9.63 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +10.01% | +823.89 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -1.60% | -131.84 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +0.78% | +64.13 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +5.51% | +453.76 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +8.98% | +738.66 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +5.14% | +422.98 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +3.74% | +308.03 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +0.70% | +57.68 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +3.29% | +270.76 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +2.66% | +218.73 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +4.61% | +379.44 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +6.58% | +541.27 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +4.44% | +365.72 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +10.88% | +894.97 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -2.11% | -173.76 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -2.54% | -209.01 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -2.91% | -239.44 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -4.74% | -390.05 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -5.30% | -436.17 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -5.83% | -479.35 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -2.64% | -217.26 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -2.70% | -221.95 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -5.18% | -426.11 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -1.72% | -141.86 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -6.84% | -562.85 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -4.64% | -382.02 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -4.46% | -367.38 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -1.26% | -103.80 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -0.88% | -72.61 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -10.39% | -854.55 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +0.80% | +66.22 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -1.81% | -148.65 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -5.01% | -412.15 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -8.92% | -733.72 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -5.80% | -477.28 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -4.55% | -374.55 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -1.17% | -96.44 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -0.12% | -10.23 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +1.38% | +113.26 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +3.80% | +312.30 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -4.79% | -394.26 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +2.17% | +178.68 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +4.02% | +330.90 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +2.65% | +217.89 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -2.76% | -226.76 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -1.18% | -97.01 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -5.02% | -412.96 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +4.40% | +361.74 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -8.29% | -681.92 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +8.29% | +681.93 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -7.30% | -600.93 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +6.85% | +563.76 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -15.35% | -1263.30 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +15.73% | +1294.63 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
Is Your ISP Censoring Your Email? Internet email is dying, being choked to death by spam and overzealous service providers. If you're not getting these updates via email and you should be, switch to RSS, the spam-free alternative. For instructions, just visit: http://www.marketclues.net/rss.html.
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
Zombies Rise From the Dead
Bank stocks soared as bargain hunters once again bought shares in the dead companies. Up about 30%, these former giants are being slowly nationalized. Anyone betting on them to turn up is simply whistling past the graveyard.
The stars of the show were the technology companies, however. IBM and Apple reported better than expected earnings, lending substantial strength to the sector. Apple didn't report until after the close, but apparent insider buying tipped the news ahead of the announcement. These are real companies, not bank zombies, which means that absolute percentage gains were much more muted.
Nationalizing the Banking System
This is something we've advocated for a long time and it's finally getting to be a mainstream idea. There are huge advantages to moving from the partial nationalization we've seen so far to full nationalization. Again, we warn bank common stock shareholders that it's very likely your shares are currently worthless (your bank is likely insolvent) and the government isn't going to pay you much, if any, for your shares when full nationalization takes place. If you think buying bank stocks at 1994 prices is a bargain, you will not think so when you end up with a total loss.
Essentially, when banks get too big to fail, they are too big to remain private companies and they must be absorbed by the government. It's as simple as that.
Is Obama Really President?
Some constitutional scholars say that because Obama did not properly recite the oath of office---not his fault, the Chief Justice recited it incorrectly---he is not actually President yet. It looks like he will need to have a do-over in order to officially assume the Presidency. It won't be the first time. Two other Presidents ran into the same problem.
Stocks regained most of the ground lost yesterday as a relief rally staved off total collapse:
Change From 20 Jan 2009 To 21 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +3.51% | +279.01 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +3.56% | +283.29 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +6.80% | +540.67 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -7.14% | -567.79 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +4.31% | +342.95 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +4.32% | +343.34 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +8.52% | +677.00 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -8.58% | -681.64 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +4.27% | +339.35 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +4.34% | +345.16 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +4.68% | +372.00 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +9.16% | +728.31 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -4.20% | -333.68 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -8.72% | -693.25 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +5.33% | +423.62 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +4.98% | +396.26 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +9.18% | +729.75 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -9.58% | -761.35 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +4.13% | +328.49 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +4.26% | +338.32 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +7.66% | +609.15 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -8.03% | -638.50 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +4.61% | +366.39 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +4.67% | +371.10 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +8.63% | +686.14 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -9.27% | -737.03 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.03% | +82.22 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.97% | +236.19 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.49% | +198.21 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.44% | -34.80 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +0.69% | +55.03 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -0.58% | -45.71 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.07% | +243.98 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +6.16% | +489.49 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -4.76% | -378.40 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +11.52% | +916.03 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -3.16% | -251.10 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.89% | -70.78 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.52% | -41.65 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.50% | -39.71 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.15% | -12.22 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +2.21% | +175.94 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +6.22% | +494.72 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -4.11% | -326.97 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -3.52% | -279.75 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -4.48% | -356.42 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -4.53% | -359.78 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -4.20% | -333.68 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -5.20% | -413.36 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -8.03% | -638.50 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -7.14% | -567.79 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -8.58% | -681.64 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -9.27% | -737.03 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -8.72% | -693.25 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -9.58% | -761.35 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -8.58% | -681.82 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -7.20% | -572.57 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -4.16% | -330.42 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -5.25% | -417.33 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -9.55% | -759.37 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -9.45% | -751.04 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -9.64% | -765.90 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -2.39% | -189.68 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -3.95% | -313.71 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | -23.58% | -1874.57 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -2.07% | -164.20 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -5.69% | -451.95 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -12.38% | -984.39 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -19.24% | -1529.40 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -4.76% | -378.40 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -10.00% | -795.18 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -3.34% | -265.84 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -5.48% | -435.79 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -4.97% | -395.21 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -9.50% | -754.94 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -11.39% | -905.43 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -7.74% | -615.30 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -11.92% | -947.54 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +7.66% | +609.15 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +6.80% | +540.67 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +8.52% | +677.00 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +8.63% | +686.14 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +9.16% | +728.31 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +9.18% | +729.75 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +9.08% | +722.11 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +7.45% | +592.48 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +8.55% | +679.73 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +6.87% | +546.46 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +10.01% | +795.53 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +9.88% | +785.03 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +9.07% | +720.82 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +2.62% | +208.33 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | +4.02% | +319.24 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | +23.44% | +1863.52 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +4.73% | +375.68 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +5.38% | +427.27 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +13.27% | +1054.47 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +18.34% | +1458.00 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +6.16% | +489.49 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +10.25% | +814.86 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +3.45% | +273.93 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +2.42% | +192.40 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -0.08% | -6.43 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +10.21% | +811.70 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -7.87% | -625.55 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +6.09% | +484.13 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | -9.74% | -774.21 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | -5.98% | -475.02 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +2.42% | +192.32 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +1.63% | +129.89 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +12.10% | +961.85 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -12.67% | -1007.42 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +14.04% | +1116.35 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -14.85% | -1180.43 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +17.41% | +1384.27 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -17.92% | -1424.39 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +29.75% | +2364.93 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | -35.11% | -2790.97 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Market Tumbles as Obama Takes Control
Barack Hussein Obama became President of the United States of America at noon EST Tuesday. A more difficult job than being President following the bursting of a half-century bubble of virtually unabated excessive debt creation is hard to imagine, but we will soon see whether he can make lemonade out of a formerly-capitalist system gone sour. The public thinks he can do it, but we suspect it will take more than a single four-year term for any mortal to put much of a dent in the problem.
Certainly, his party and the powers that rule their candidates have to share the blame along with the Republicans.
We've said it before and we'll continue to repeat it: the banking system is insolvent and the common shares of bank stocks are worthless. Unfortunately, investors still think that buying "cheap" bank shares is smart, keeping them overvalued. Periodically, a few investors realize their shares are worthless and sell, causing them to edge closer to zero, their true value. This happened on Tuesday and it helped pull the whole market lower.
Change From 16 Jan 2009 To 20 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -4.01% | -332.13 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -3.97% | -328.48 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -7.59% | -628.69 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +7.76% | +643.03 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -4.70% | -389.22 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -5.28% | -437.13 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -10.49% | -868.91 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +10.34% | +856.10 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -6.11% | -506.39 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -6.31% | -522.92 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -6.90% | -571.28 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -12.91% | -1069.39 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +6.05% | +501.11 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +13.11% | +1085.70 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -7.03% | -581.83 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -6.78% | -561.23 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -13.20% | -1093.48 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +13.29% | +1100.77 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -4.27% | -353.49 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -4.96% | -410.96 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -9.52% | -788.69 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +9.34% | +773.18 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -6.00% | -496.47 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -5.96% | -493.85 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -11.73% | -971.52 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +11.85% | +981.31 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -1.39% | -115.18 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -0.12% | -9.74 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -0.16% | -13.39 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.19% | +181.22 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -3.31% | -274.09 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +5.20% | +430.84 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -7.16% | -592.84 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -12.59% | -1042.22 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +12.50% | +1035.55 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -13.94% | -1154.35 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.02% | -1.45 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.15% | -12.69 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.52% | -43.16 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -1.48% | -122.26 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.05% | +3.92 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +0.06% | +4.70 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +0.62% | +51.65 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +4.94% | +409.17 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +4.01% | +331.71 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +5.34% | +442.20 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +5.99% | +495.68 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +6.05% | +501.11 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +6.81% | +563.60 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +9.34% | +773.18 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +7.76% | +643.03 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +10.34% | +856.10 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +11.85% | +981.31 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +13.11% | +1085.70 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +13.29% | +1100.77 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +12.00% | +994.13 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +8.59% | +711.64 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | +10.80% | +894.73 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +10.44% | +864.71 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +15.46% | +1280.33 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +11.70% | +968.76 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +13.28% | +1099.48 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +4.54% | +376.08 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +10.88% | +901.25 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +28.75% | +2380.65 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +4.03% | +333.84 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +10.42% | +862.83 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +9.91% | +820.96 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +19.97% | +1653.74 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +12.50% | +1035.55 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +10.16% | +840.96 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +4.55% | +376.59 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +7.45% | +617.26 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +7.59% | +628.60 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +14.85% | +1229.91 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +15.13% | +1253.31 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +8.06% | +667.28 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +16.80% | +1390.93 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -9.52% | -788.69 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -7.59% | -628.69 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -10.49% | -868.91 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -11.73% | -971.52 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -12.91% | -1069.39 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -13.20% | -1093.48 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -12.48% | -1033.15 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -9.17% | -759.21 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -12.05% | -997.67 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -10.92% | -904.45 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -14.81% | -1226.04 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -11.92% | -987.45 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -12.04% | -996.93 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -4.98% | -412.45 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -10.20% | -844.76 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -28.91% | -2393.79 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -5.97% | -494.58 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -10.52% | -871.27 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -10.12% | -838.45 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -21.50% | -1780.38 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -12.59% | -1042.22 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -9.95% | -824.14 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -4.94% | -409.41 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -4.78% | -395.56 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +5.06% | +419.08 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -7.79% | -644.91 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +1.32% | +109.09 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +5.48% | +453.56 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +4.25% | +352.07 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -11.43% | -946.42 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -4.87% | -403.33 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -15.47% | -1281.30 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +15.91% | +1317.55 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -19.81% | -1640.26 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +20.26% | +1677.78 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -13.79% | -1141.99 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +14.14% | +1170.73 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -40.44% | -3348.69 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +40.79% | +3378.09 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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Monday, January 19, 2009
I Want My Bailout Money
Markets in the US were closed Monday, but we thought this musical interlude quite appropriate for the times:
I Want My Bailout Money (commentary)
Lyrics:
I want my bailout money Keep the bills coming Sweet green cash just drippin like honey I'm a new kind of thug with a Washington buzz 'cause Dealing debt pays better than dealing drugs What do you think will happen when they double the money supply? The falling dollar makes it harder for you to survive They take those billions and trillions and give it to their own kind Hope you don't mind bein robbed blind How do you think we got runaway credit? Ain't nothin goin down unless the crooks in Washington let it Now they regret it but they still don't get it Cause the economy is crashin so bad it needs a paramedic I want my bailout money Sweet green cash just dripping with honey Gotta keep this economy running I need another hit of my bailout money Look at the stash, it's like a mad dash for the cash They got the taxpayer takin it in the ass the CEOs they are havin a blast While the workin poor trying to make the paycheck last The bailout money is created with new debt While they rollin in their limos and private jets All the workers on the street drippin sweat While collar hustlers are takin everything they can get They put the nation on a hyperinflation track No Presidential administration can take it back And now the taxpayers pickin up the slack Like they put a high dollar Big Brother monkey on your back I want my bailout money Sweet green cash just dripping with honey Gotta keep this economy running I need another hit of my bailout money The prisons are filled with brothers caught on a fifty-dollar jack But when Whitey takin trillions, the cops they turn their back The incompetent bankers, they get their jobs back Cause those crankers smoking money like it was crack They take your car, your home, everything that you own And when you're jobless and broke, you still gotta pay the loan If you're thinkin of stealin some food, please don't Just go to Washington and you can steal everything you want How we gonna solve this, dissolve the big scam We resolve we won't let 'em steal from a fellow man Raise our hands and ask "What is this?" Then we put the Federal Reserve out of business! You take a look at a dollar bill, you see that eye above the pyramid lookin back at you That eye is laughin at you suckers! I want my bailout money Keep the con running Sweet green cash just dripping with honey Gotta keep this economy running I need another hit of my bailout money Aren't you tired of payin for that? Tired of breakin your back for that? Bein oppressed and suppressed while you keep payin your tax for that? We gotta get out of this financial trap And it's never gonna stop until you take your country back The politicians are useless, don't you know that they used us And the bankers refused us while the media schooled us The authorities knew this was happening to us Cause they make more money every time that they screw us You didn't think they're printing all that funny money just for you, did ya? Drownin' in debt but the Fed isn't done yet What are we gonna get? Gonna print funny money Budget's in the red, economy nearly dead Politician's said that we Gonna print funny money Hangin' by a thread, the people are bein' bled But get it through your head that we Gonna print funny money The bankers gotta stay ahead, gotta make more bread That's when they said, "Print more money!"
Song and Lyrics © 2009 by Michael Adams, All Rights Reserved.
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Sunday, January 18, 2009
$9 Trillion More Bailout Money Needed
Government Moron of the Week Award
This week's Government Moron of the Week award goes to the Food and Drug Administration, which advised consumers to avoid eating any food containing peanut butter. This follows last year's warning for consumers to stop eating all tomatoes. Next week, the agency is set to ask all consumers to stop drinking water.
The Black Hole Known as the Financial System
Now that government has spent $9 Trillion bailing out the private banking system they seem to think is so important (and, by the way, refusing to fund Thermopower technology which would create a boom in the economy for a measly $15 Million), it appears that another $9 Trillion will be needed just to tread water this year. The black hole known as the financial system just continues to grow and grow and eat money like candy.
Last month, the government reported that 952,151 jobs were lost as the economy continues to freefall into a Greater Depression than any we have ever seen before.
This is exactly what you get---and will continue to get---when you put morons in charge of the economy.
The best read on the severity of the financial crisis comes from America's main financier---the Bank of China:
A top Bank of China official warned the world should brace for "a second round of financial crisis" due to rising bad loans as the real economy falls into recession, in remarks published Thursday.
Efforts by governments around the world to bail out markets have so far failed to solve the deep-rooted problems behind the current crisis, Zhu Min, a vice president for the bank, wrote in the China Securities Journal.
"The real estate market will continue to see corrections and the stock prices of financial institutions will continue to see wide swings," he said.
Banks will remain reluctant to lend and currencies will continue to fluctuate as funds are reallocated around the world, he wrote.
"Rising defaults of industrial loans and personal loans caused by a recession in the real economy could lead to a second round in the financial crisis," Zhu wrote in the full page commentary.
The scale and nature of the crisis had been misjudged, and the lack of structure and vision in government efforts to stabilise the markets could lead to unforeseen pitfalls, he warned.
"We think the government decisions during the global financial crisis were full of contradictions and mistakes," he said.
In the next one or two years, big financial institutions previously bailed out by governments could fall into trouble again, he predicted, while smaller banks could go bankrupt and hedge funds could collapse.
Governments have injected billions of dollars into financial institutions and made concerted interest rates cuts after the crisis deepened in September with the collapse of US bank Lehman Brothers.
Thus, it's clear to those who provide the majority of the funds to finance the US government---China---that Washington has a major problem on its hands and will have to continue bailing out banks. The question is: How long will the Chinese continue to lend the funds the US needs to continue bailing out the banks? If China simply stopped lending money, the US would be forced to confront either letting the banks fail, or paying much higher interest rates to attract foreign savings to finance our exploding deficits. In the end, it may come down to no choice at all---the banks may have to be allowed to fail.
$825,000,000,000 Stimulus Package Too Little, Too Late
The stimulus package proposed by the Democrats is far too small to turn the economy around (the notional value of the debt created by the Wall Street banks is $425,000,000,000,000), but that doesn't stop the Republicans from whining about it. Somehow, losing the Elections has given them the right to criticize spending money to help fix the problems they created in the last eight years? Even a trillion dollars would just be a drop in the bucket in an economy which has hundreds of times that much in toxic debt created by Wall Street banks.
So, while the Republicans whine about it, this stimulus program is just a small down payment on the following ones. Let's see, why not a trillion dollars every quarter? That might help turn the economy around by, say, 2011.
Obama Likely To Disappoint the Public
According to the Associated Press' poll of Americans on the upcoming Obama Presidency, "With the U.S. facing the gravest economic crisis since the Great Depression, the poll found broad optimism that Obama could help turn things around. Seventy-one percent of those polled said the economy will likely improve during the first year of his presidency; 65 percent said unemployment will go down; 72 percent said the stock market would be on the rise; and 63 percent said their personal economic situation would improve."
Unfortunately, most Americans will be disappointed. The unemployment rate will continue to rise during 2009. Very few will find their personal economic situation improving, either. The economy certainly will not improve. But, there's a chance that the stock market will find a temporary low in 2009 and experience a typical bear market rally. One out of four isn't bad considering that we're in a Greater Depression.
The Peter Principle
According to the Peter Principle, "In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence." The Carver Principle extends the Peter Principle to the society,
In a capitalistic system, incompetents rise until they control the economy, stifle innovation and strangle it to death.
Thus, over time and before your very eyes, you see a persistently diminishing rate of true innovation due to the incompetents controlling an increasing share of the investment capital of society. Instead of inventing new products, old products are simply given a makeover and new products are stifled. Vulture capitalists seize vulnerable public companies, rip them apart to sell the pieces, fire creative workers and generally ravage the companies until they are only hollow shells incapable of innovating, or even surviving. Investors grow increasingly conservative and unwilling to bet money on anything truly new. As the incompetents rise toward the top and occupy roles as decisionmakers, they clog the arteries of the system, impeding the lifeblood of society. Eventually, the country reaches a critical state where blockages prevent the system from functioning and the body dies.
The United States is in this critical condition right now.
If Karl Marx were alive today, he would say, "I told you so!"
And, as Robert A. Heinlein wrote, "Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded---here and there, now and then---are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty. This is known as "bad luck."
Beginning of the End of Capitalism
The current bear market is the beginning of the end of capitalism. The people are indeed about to "slip back into abject poverty." The current Greater Depression will continue for decades and be much more severe than the Great Depression.
On the bright side, things will be much worse in some other areas of the world, particularly Europe. The United States Dollar will rise in value against the Euro, at least during the next decade. In fact, the Euro is unlikely to survive as a currency.
What's more, we have identified a major bull market. And, no, it's definitely not the stock market, which waddled like a duck on Friday:
Change From 15 Jan 2009 To 16 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.84% | +68.73 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.62% | +50.97 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.14% | +93.86 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.51% | -123.98 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.49% | +40.20 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.78% | +64.22 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +1.30% | +106.89 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -1.24% | -101.97 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.74% | +61.04 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.86% | +70.41 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.10% | +90.10 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +3.76% | +308.64 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.11% | -91.06 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.41% | -197.93 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.82% | +67.46 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.11% | +91.11 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.56% | +128.17 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.55% | -209.11 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.25% | +102.49 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +1.10% | +90.31 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.50% | +205.23 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -2.55% | -209.33 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.46% | +119.80 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.70% | +139.52 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +3.68% | +302.25 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -3.30% | -271.08 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.27% | +104.10 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +5.24% | +429.96 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +6.18% | +507.47 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.89% | +237.01 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -4.68% | -384.28 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +5.62% | +461.79 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +3.55% | +291.50 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +5.18% | +425.69 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -9.10% | -747.37 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -1.84% | -151.01 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.54% | -126.63 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.92% | -75.66 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.51% | +42.23 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.05% | +3.89 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | +2.17% | +177.88 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +3.43% | +281.87 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -1.46% | -119.74 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -0.77% | -63.03 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.43% | -35.40 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -1.64% | -134.87 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.11% | -91.06 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -0.97% | -79.57 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -2.55% | -209.33 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.51% | -123.98 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -1.24% | -101.97 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -3.30% | -271.08 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -2.41% | -197.93 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.55% | -209.11 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +0.56% | +46.06 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -1.81% | -148.36 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -1.04% | -85.66 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -3.51% | -288.40 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -2.07% | -170.00 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -2.11% | -173.45 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -4.21% | -345.47 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -3.43% | -282.03 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -3.17% | -260.53 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +3.22% | +264.32 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -2.83% | -232.63 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -1.55% | -127.23 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -2.46% | -201.69 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -6.80% | -558.83 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -9.10% | -747.37 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -2.27% | -186.67 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -4.68% | -384.60 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -0.89% | -73.39 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -0.82% | -67.03 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -1.51% | -124.40 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -2.45% | -201.61 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -1.21% | -99.46 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -2.59% | -212.94 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.50% | +205.23 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.14% | +93.86 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +1.30% | +106.89 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +3.68% | +302.25 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +3.76% | +308.64 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.56% | +128.17 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +1.05% | +85.83 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +2.31% | +189.61 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +3.68% | +302.41 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +2.86% | +234.64 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.30% | +188.79 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +2.30% | +188.74 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +2.73% | +224.32 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +3.38% | +277.66 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | +3.63% | +298.16 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -3.27% | -268.92 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +2.94% | +241.69 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +2.36% | +193.73 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +1.79% | +147.20 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +6.96% | +571.76 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +5.18% | +425.69 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +2.06% | +169.25 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +4.73% | +388.71 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +0.85% | +70.19 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -3.22% | -264.62 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +1.25% | +103.02 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +0.35% | +28.57 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDG) | -0.84% | -68.91 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +1.13% | +92.69 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +0.30% | +24.27 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -3.78% | -310.44 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -2.43% | -199.29 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +1.99% | +163.70 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -2.31% | -189.85 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +2.19% | +180.03 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -3.28% | -269.64 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +3.08% | +252.73 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -3.12% | -256.38 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -5.60% | -459.95 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +6.12% | +502.49 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Thursday, January 15, 2009
How a Real Bailout Works in New York City
When an airliner takes off and then loses power only one or two thousand feet off the ground in the middle of New York City, you definitely have an emergency situation. Unlike the banking system and the bankers who run those banks, airline pilots, ferry personnel and other rescue personnel have to train for emergencies and react to them without pause. They don't assume that things will always work perfectly every time. They plan on things breaking and know how to react when things break. So, when an airline pilot found himself in an emergency situation Thursday afternoon, he did exactly what he needed to do: land the plane like a glider in the Hudson River. And, when ferry crews saw a plane land in the river, they did exactly what they needed to do: rescue the passengers---they were a real Plunge Protection Team. Both crew and passengers did exactly what they needed to do and all of them are alive today.
Contrast this to bankers who assume that home prices will always go up. And, that debtors will always repay their loans. And that nothing will ever go wrong. Then, they print $50 for every dollar in deposits they hold and loan it out to anyone who proves they can breathe. When something goes wrong, they have no plan, no way to recover. And, they crash land the entire world economy into the water.
Oh, wait, bankers do have a plan. Their plan is to demand that you pay for their mistakes. "Heads we win, tails you lose" is their modus operandi.
If we trained pilots the way we train bankers, we would teach them how to takeoff, but not to land.
This is similar to the situation with energy. We know how to permanently eliminate the need to burn oil and other polluting fossil fuels, but we aren't doing it. We could have an unlimited source of free and clean energy, but governments are run by morons who block progress.
The stock market trend continues to point down, but exhibited a typical bear bounce to relieve its extremely oversold condition after seven days on the downside. This is just a brief intermission before resumption of the main trend:
Change From 14 Jan 2009 To 15 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.15% | +12.35 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.12% | +9.99 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +0.47% | +38.25 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -0.25% | -20.35 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.18% | +15.08 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.04% | +2.92 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.22% | +17.83 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.13% | -10.27 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.36% | +29.35 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.35% | +28.55 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.80% | +147.46 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.44% | +117.79 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.76% | -144.48 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -3.30% | -270.83 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +2.09% | +171.00 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.61% | +132.32 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +3.97% | +325.25 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.96% | -242.48 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.71% | +140.12 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +1.64% | +134.62 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.93% | +240.60 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -2.69% | -220.90 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.72% | +141.01 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.52% | +124.99 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.77% | +226.94 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.74% | -224.40 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +0.61% | +50.35 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +4.24% | +348.00 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +3.30% | +270.43 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.75% | +61.66 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -1.36% | -111.82 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +1.29% | +106.15 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +2.50% | +205.40 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +3.47% | +284.16 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -1.77% | -145.30 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.27% | -268.12 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.16% | +13.44 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.08% | -6.64 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.01% | -0.80 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | +0.20% | +16.17 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.11% | -8.73 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -1.17% | -95.61 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -0.59% | -48.38 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -1.37% | -112.51 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | -0.14% | -11.22 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.69% | -56.38 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -1.43% | -117.00 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.76% | -144.48 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -1.64% | -134.47 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -2.69% | -220.90 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -0.25% | -20.35 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.13% | -10.27 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.74% | -224.40 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -3.30% | -270.83 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.96% | -242.48 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -0.23% | -18.49 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -1.73% | -141.82 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -3.44% | -281.90 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -3.73% | -305.90 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -2.62% | -215.10 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -3.91% | -320.40 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -3.86% | -316.14 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -0.52% | -42.33 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | -4.36% | -357.28 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +6.84% | +561.04 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -1.44% | -117.74 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -1.94% | -158.68 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -2.07% | -169.49 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -6.16% | -505.50 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -1.77% | -145.30 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -1.50% | -123.39 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -1.01% | -83.10 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -1.39% | -113.69 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -0.78% | -63.79 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -1.62% | -132.70 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -1.80% | -147.92 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -2.77% | -227.31 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | -3.24% | -265.81 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.93% | +240.60 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +0.47% | +38.25 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.22% | +17.83 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.77% | +226.94 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.44% | +117.79 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +3.97% | +325.25 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -0.58% | -47.92 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +1.91% | +156.77 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +1.02% | +83.74 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +4.27% | +349.77 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.78% | +227.94 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +4.11% | +337.06 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +5.78% | +473.84 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +0.59% | +48.61 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | +3.77% | +308.93 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -7.24% | -593.94 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +0.73% | +60.17 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +1.56% | +128.13 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +2.45% | +200.77 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +7.00% | +573.82 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +3.47% | +284.16 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +1.24% | +101.84 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +0.90% | +73.59 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +0.44% | +35.72 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | +0.31% | +25.57 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +2.87% | +235.57 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +0.36% | +29.50 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +0.30% | +24.80 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +5.00% | +409.61 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +1.85% | +151.62 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -2.35% | -192.62 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -0.80% | -65.80 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +1.31% | +107.64 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -0.74% | -60.36 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +5.72% | +468.76 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -4.92% | -403.06 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +3.24% | +265.48 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -3.10% | -254.07 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -10.61% | -869.71 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +10.45% | +856.55 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
TARP's First $350 Billion Has Gone Up in Smoke
While the Congress asks the Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve chief what the $350 Billion in bailout funds have been used for, they are mum on the subject. There's a good reason they're silent---the money has disappeared down a black hole of falling mortgage paper.
Meredith Whitney, the single analyst most responsible for exposing the Wall Street banks' Subprime Mortgage Ponzi Scheme that's at the heart of the current Greater Depression, revealed after the market closed Wednesday afternoon that the money the taxpayers had given Wall Street as part of the TARP bailout is now gone.
This revelation, which came after the market closed, came on top of devastating news indicating that the economy remains in freefall into the deepest depression in the country's history. This sent the market plunging from the opening bell. In the last days of the Bush Administration it's clear that they have made no progress whatsoever in dodging this historic catastophe which threatens to completely destroy our financial system. After decades of an expanding debt bubble, there is nothing that can be done to stop its inevitable deflation.
One bank is particular egregious. Citibank has lost as much taxpayer money as was lost in the Madoff Ponzi Scheme in just the last six months. These "blackhole banks" are doing exactly what we said they would do: implode and take our money with them. And, eventually, they are going to drag the country into insolvency and leave the US Dollar totally worthless.
Change From 13 Jan 2009 To 14 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.94% | -248.42 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.77% | -234.18 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -5.53% | -466.82 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +5.72% | +483.32 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -3.53% | -298.00 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -3.15% | -265.74 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -6.24% | -526.96 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +6.04% | +510.64 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -3.79% | -320.56 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -3.94% | -332.49 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -4.26% | -359.69 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -8.12% | -686.18 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +4.19% | +353.90 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +8.53% | +720.43 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -4.35% | -367.69 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -4.40% | -371.36 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -8.52% | -719.92 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +8.75% | +739.40 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -3.84% | -324.48 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -3.05% | -257.49 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -6.01% | -507.49 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +6.03% | +509.09 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -3.98% | -336.65 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -3.99% | -336.77 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -7.78% | -657.63 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +7.78% | +657.06 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -1.44% | -121.93 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -4.98% | -420.83 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -4.47% | -377.78 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -1.35% | -113.86 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +2.07% | +174.88 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -2.34% | -197.60 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.17% | -351.91 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -7.55% | -637.99 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +8.13% | +686.93 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.21% | -439.92 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.65% | +139.30 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.56% | +47.27 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.14% | -11.46 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.44% | -37.33 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.12% | +10.00 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -0.10% | -8.07 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -3.78% | -319.09 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +3.10% | +262.01 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +2.76% | +232.90 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +3.38% | +285.55 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +3.91% | +329.99 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +4.19% | +353.90 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +4.21% | +355.36 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +6.03% | +509.09 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +5.72% | +483.32 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +6.04% | +510.64 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +7.78% | +657.06 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +8.53% | +720.43 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +8.75% | +739.40 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +6.56% | +554.21 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +6.06% | +512.13 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | +8.35% | +705.55 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +7.70% | +650.22 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +8.15% | +688.31 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +7.37% | +622.43 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +9.62% | +812.66 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +6.27% | +529.62 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +5.97% | +504.77 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +10.69% | +902.78 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +3.93% | +332.00 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +7.22% | +609.88 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +8.04% | +679.18 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +10.61% | +896.41 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +8.13% | +686.93 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +6.38% | +538.76 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +3.50% | +296.01 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +4.31% | +364.49 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +4.16% | +351.67 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +8.14% | +687.41 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +9.15% | +772.73 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +6.02% | +508.67 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +5.01% | +423.51 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -6.01% | -507.49 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -5.53% | -466.82 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -6.24% | -526.96 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -7.78% | -657.63 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -8.12% | -686.18 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -8.52% | -719.92 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -7.34% | -620.17 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -6.42% | -542.57 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -7.68% | -648.58 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -6.40% | -540.75 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -8.87% | -749.08 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -7.75% | -655.04 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -9.05% | -764.69 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -5.74% | -484.55 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -6.53% | -551.28 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -10.46% | -883.74 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -3.07% | -259.59 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -7.60% | -642.38 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -8.60% | -726.69 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -10.69% | -902.77 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -7.55% | -637.99 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -6.37% | -538.35 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -3.08% | -259.83 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -1.71% | -144.69 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -2.80% | -236.82 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +5.09% | +430.34 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -6.24% | -527.14 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +2.58% | +217.72 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +2.57% | +217.49 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +1.79% | +151.62 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +1.02% | +85.92 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -1.09% | -92.20 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -9.78% | -826.13 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +9.97% | +842.04 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -13.15% | -1110.98 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +13.03% | +1100.47 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -12.73% | -1075.31 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +13.17% | +1112.63 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -15.48% | -1307.74 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +15.63% | +1320.32 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Government Is Driving the Economy Into Depression
PBS Rushes Ascent of Money To Air
The US government television agency, PBS, has rushed a special two-hour program, Ascent of Money, to air this evening. They are getting serious about the depression now and trying to explain to a very concerned public just why we got into this depression. The full series will be aired in a few months.
Elliott Wave International's Free Financial Forecast December Issue
We've been told that readers of this blog can obtain a free issue of the EWI Financial Forecast December issue. Just click here to read this issue (free registration required for those not already a member of Club EWI).
Perp Corner: The Banking System
As we've mentioned several times, the banking system is insolvent and the economy is in freefall into a Greater Depression than the last Great Depression of the Thirties. Banks are insolvent because they printed too much money based upon overly-inflated real estate values. In the capitalist system, banks are granted the right to print money using the fractional reserve banking system. Typically, a bank will print a certain number of dollars for each dollar on deposit---the bank doesn't loan out deposited money, it uses those deposits as a "reserve" and prints several dollars which are loaned out for each dollar on deposit. This system only works when loans are paid off. When debtors fail to pay off, those printed dollars are essentially destroyed and cause the bank to fall afoul of their reserve requirements. Once the bank falls below the level of reserves required to maintain their outstanding loans, normally the bank will be closed by the government and its remaining assets sold to the highest bidder. This stops the problem and keeps it from spreading throughout the banking system.
This process has been subverted by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Secretary. Instead of stopping the bleeding of dollars from the banking system, they have borrowed taxpayer money and given it to the insolvent banks. As real estate values continue to fall, money is continually being destroyed, leaving the banks unable to make new loans because they do not have the reserves to print new money. By rescuing the big banks that caused the current financial catastrophe, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are spreading the virus to healthy banks, dragging them under and pushing the economy deeper into depression.
Sometimes to cure the system, you have to excise the diseased portions. Wall Street banks are the source of the problem and are a continuing black hole for taxpayer bailout money. The government must immediately seize and shut down those banks. These banks can be replaced by a government bank which prints money and loans it to qualified borrowers. In other words, let's claw back the right to print money from the perpetrators of the current crisis and return it to the people from which it was taken.
One of the biggest problems facing the economy today is that the government's enormous debt is crowding out the private businesses which need to borrow money. When the government borrows 9 Trillion dollars, a figure which will be reached before spring has sprung, and causes interest rates to rise, the rest of the economy is left with higher interest rates---or a lack of money available to borrow. A better alternative would be for the government to simply print the money to pay for the stimulus programs---it would save time and money and it would allow private borrowers to obtain financing. The normal objection that this would stoke inflation is a moot point---the problem is deflation, not inflation. As long as asset prices are falling faster than the government can print money, there will be no inflationary pressure.
No market can go down continuously and a relief rally may have taken hold on Wall Street late Tuesday. It won't last long:
Change From 12 Jan 2009 To 13 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.30% | -25.41 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.44% | -36.98 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -0.91% | -76.86 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +0.83% | +70.26 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.21% | +17.82 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.18% | +15.59 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.08% | +6.91 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.09% | -7.87 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -0.22% | -18.61 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -0.18% | -14.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.74% | +62.78 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.49% | +126.61 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -0.53% | -45.01 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -1.83% | -155.10 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.06% | +90.20 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.33% | +112.50 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.31% | +195.41 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.73% | -231.19 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.23% | +19.54 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +0.03% | +2.87 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -0.11% | -9.59 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -0.05% | -4.43 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.11% | +94.31 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.07% | +90.71 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.69% | +142.94 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.38% | -201.73 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -0.09% | -7.88 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.52% | +213.16 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +1.97% | +166.84 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.15% | +12.59 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -0.36% | -30.14 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +0.19% | +16.10 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +0.81% | +68.90 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -0.38% | -32.20 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +0.37% | +31.34 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.08% | +91.32 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.11% | +8.93 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.07% | +6.04 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.16% | +13.98 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.22% | -18.26 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.01% | +1.00 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -0.42% | -35.45 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | +0.47% | +39.93 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -0.08% | -6.91 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +0.42% | +35.91 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.17% | -14.75 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -1.17% | -99.09 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -0.53% | -45.01 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -1.08% | -91.82 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -0.05% | -4.43 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +0.83% | +70.26 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.09% | -7.87 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -2.38% | -201.73 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -1.83% | -155.10 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.73% | -231.19 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -0.17% | -14.31 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -0.60% | -51.16 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -1.59% | -134.54 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -0.45% | -38.13 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -2.19% | -185.33 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -1.58% | -133.53 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -1.18% | -99.87 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | -0.65% | -54.98 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +0.31% | +26.48 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | -2.73% | -231.24 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -1.74% | -147.72 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +3.29% | +279.16 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -4.16% | -352.81 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | -5.91% | -500.83 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +0.37% | +31.34 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +0.34% | +28.77 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +3.27% | +277.32 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | -0.38% | -32.08 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +1.80% | +152.24 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +3.64% | +308.22 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | -1.36% | -115.20 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +2.88% | +243.73 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +1.90% | +161.06 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -0.11% | -9.59 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -0.91% | -76.86 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.08% | +6.91 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.69% | +142.94 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +1.49% | +126.61 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +2.31% | +195.41 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +0.42% | +35.84 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +0.65% | +54.77 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +1.85% | +156.93 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -0.57% | -48.06 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.33% | +197.71 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +1.61% | +136.44 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | 0.00% | 0.00 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | +1.07% | +90.68 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -0.26% | -21.89 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | +1.49% | +125.94 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +1.97% | +167.17 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -2.40% | -202.99 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +3.74% | +316.58 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | +4.20% | +356.05 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -0.38% | -32.20 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -0.69% | -58.71 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -3.13% | -265.21 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | +0.93% | +78.46 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -0.23% | -19.22 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -5.01% | -424.95 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +4.40% | +372.97 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | -1.92% | -162.62 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | -4.76% | -403.45 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | -2.48% | -209.80 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +4.61% | +390.64 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | +3.38% | +286.81 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +0.40% | +33.59 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -0.77% | -65.39 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +3.98% | +336.95 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -4.00% | -338.96 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +5.75% | +487.47 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -7.13% | -604.04 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +3.40% | +287.83 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | -4.15% | -351.62 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
"Make no small plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood."
Those stirring words from Daniel Hudson Burnham are exactly what we need from the new Administration. We have an economy in freefall, heading for a bigger depression than the last on the weight of $52 Trillion in debt (almost $200,000 for every man, woman and child in America today). We need no wishy-washy plans---we need a bold initiative to revitalize a country which has grown bloated and lazy. Pushing paper from one inbox to another, we seem to have lost the will to advance via production. Our only creativity is concentrated in ever more outrageous expansion of debt, dance moves and fashion bling. We depend for our toys on a steady flow of shoddy and dangerous products from China. We have computer systems which can only be fixed by moronic Indian software "engineers" whose greatest talent lies in denial that a problem exists.
If we're suffering from a hangover from too much debt, it makes no sense to add more debt on top of the old---our children and grandchildren will never be able to pay it back. We need to create a society which knows how to roll up its sleeves and accomplish something. We need to invest in infrastructure, including green alternatives to end the Era of Fossil Fuels. We need to make big changes now while the iron is hot.
- The first step in the process should be to admit publically that we are in a depression. As it is, we are in denial, calling it a recession. Face facts: this is a genuine depression that threatens to last a decade or more.
- The next step is to close all insolvent banks. That will eliminate the source of the problem. This will actually eliminate almost all private banks today since most are already insolvent. If we admit that some institutions are "too big to save" and let them fail, perhaps it will stiffen the backbone of their competitors---and clear the detritus from the system.
- Third, the scoundrels and thieves on Wall Street who so egregiously abused the financial system and caused this depression must not go unpunished. They must first be summoned from their luxury abodes in Monte Carlo and be required to repay all of the bonuses they received from their nefarious activities. Then, they must be required to perform community service for the poor for several years. We have, as yet, not seen a single one of these criminals even indicted for their activities, probably due to bribes they have paid to the "authorities."
- Next, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must be indicted, convicted and executed for failure to perform its job. Duties formerly assigned to the SEC should be reassigned to another government agency.
- In order to rebuild the country, we need government to create a National Infrastructure Bank (a bill to do so has been introduced into the last Congress). This bank will be empowered by the government to print money and make grants to American entrepreneurs for strengthening and extending infrastructure in this country. One of the biggest problems today is that private capital is not available to new businesses. Government needs to step into the void and print money to create that capital. There are worthy projects (example: Thermopower) which can energize the country with enormous and lasting benefits, but cannot obtain capital from the private sector. They fall between the cracks of existing businesses and require too much capital to be obtained from private sources. These projects must proceed if we have any hope of emerging from this economic black hole without the mortal wound of a debt which can never be repaid.
- The next thing the government should do is at least double spending on basic science research. This will ensure that the economy can emerge from this depression ready to hit the ground running.
- Next, the government needs to eliminate taxes on research and development. Taxes on R&D are like driving down the street with one foot on the accelerator and the other foot on the brake. You're just not going to get you where you need to go by taxing research and development. It's like the farmer eating some of his seed corn instead of saving it for planting next Spring.
- Extend the free internet to the whole country by making it wireless. Internet access should be free for all human beings as a basic right.
- Eliminate all capital gains taxes---this will energize entrepreneurs to create jobs and generate income (which can be taxed). In any case, capital gains taxes are generally confiscation of wealth by the government due to high inflation rates. For example, the stock market, on an inflation-adjusted basis, has lost all of its gains since 1973, but you don't get to avoid capital gains taxes on inflated gains.
- Stop giving American companies tax incentives to export jobs overseas. This is the most insane policy ever in the history of government. It needs to stop---now!
- Pass a federal usury law to eliminate high interest rates on loans. Interest rates must be low enough to enable the borrower to pay the loan back. Setting them to outrageous levels over 10% are counterproductive. In fact, no interest rate should be allowed to ever exceed the rate the government can borrow by 2%. Credit card companies should be bound by the contracts they write just like any other business and should not be allowed to arbitrarily change their contract terms at a moment's notice.
- Eliminate the disasterous health care system where an employer is necessary in order to obtain health care. This will help make American business competitive with the world. We've priced ourselves out of the market by putting too many taxes and costs on employers. It's time for the government to shoulder the responsibility of the health care of our citizens. At the same time, the medical industry must be required to toe the line on outrageous cost increases. If possible, rollbacks in medical fees should be mandated and no one should be charged for unnecessary or phantom procedures. Treble damages should assessed and returned to the victim should the provider violate the law.
Implementation of the above list should be considered only a good first step in a long journey toward a livable society. Eventually, we will include a list of truly radical steps which should follow the above. America has a golden opportunity to save itself from ruin, but it must act now or disappear into the history books like other once-great civilizations.
The depression continues to drag stocks down into a seemingly bottomless pit:
Change From 9 Jan 2009 To 12 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.46% | -125.21 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.57% | -134.77 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -3.16% | -271.35 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +3.07% | +264.23 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.19% | -187.97 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.40% | -206.56 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -4.52% | -388.59 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +4.73% | +406.35 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.68% | -230.16 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.56% | -220.53 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -2.53% | -217.52 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -5.55% | -477.03 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +2.45% | +210.59 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +5.19% | +446.64 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -2.60% | -223.51 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.97% | -255.49 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -5.83% | -501.01 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +6.27% | +539.08 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -1.72% | -147.97 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -1.83% | -157.28 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -3.71% | -318.72 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +3.91% | +335.94 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.78% | -239.25 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.84% | -243.93 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -5.44% | -467.77 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.70% | +489.75 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -4.74% | -407.67 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -6.93% | -596.21 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -7.54% | -648.17 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -3.77% | -323.80 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +7.08% | +609.08 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -7.82% | -672.67 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -2.88% | -247.25 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -6.13% | -527.48 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +6.07% | +521.71 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -5.02% | -431.90 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +1.04% | +89.25 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.62% | +53.73 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | +0.53% | +45.30 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.52% | -44.42 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.02% | +2.04 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -1.41% | -120.91 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -3.29% | -282.58 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +1.84% | +158.30 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +1.58% | +135.71 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +2.37% | +203.90 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +2.84% | +244.20 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +2.45% | +210.59 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +2.65% | +228.27 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +3.91% | +335.94 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +3.07% | +264.23 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +4.73% | +406.35 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.70% | +489.75 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +5.19% | +446.64 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +6.27% | +539.08 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +4.82% | +414.06 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +4.28% | +368.13 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +5.43% | +466.84 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +6.15% | +529.03 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +5.45% | +468.32 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +9.88% | +849.75 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +2.00% | +171.85 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +4.19% | +359.97 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +10.13% | +871.10 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +1.79% | +154.02 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +5.02% | +431.88 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +6.37% | +548.13 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +11.91% | +1024.06 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +6.07% | +521.71 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +3.32% | +285.40 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +0.14% | +11.91 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +4.88% | +419.55 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +2.40% | +205.95 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +4.79% | +411.77 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +9.41% | +808.92 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +4.30% | +369.55 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +11.50% | +988.62 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -3.71% | -318.72 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -3.16% | -271.35 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -4.52% | -388.59 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -5.44% | -467.77 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -5.55% | -477.03 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -5.83% | -501.01 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -4.83% | -415.37 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -4.12% | -354.02 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -6.84% | -587.93 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -6.04% | -519.31 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -4.87% | -418.83 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -5.18% | -445.43 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -8.67% | -745.26 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -2.18% | -187.54 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -4.72% | -406.26 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -9.25% | -795.30 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -2.63% | -225.91 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -5.59% | -480.49 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -6.61% | -568.04 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -10.86% | -933.99 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -6.13% | -527.48 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -3.13% | -269.33 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -0.42% | -36.08 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -1.16% | -99.68 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -4.82% | -414.49 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +9.24% | +794.30 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -11.66% | -1003.01 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +4.12% | +354.11 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +7.91% | +680.33 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +4.88% | +419.63 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -5.37% | -461.70 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -1.12% | -95.93 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -7.27% | -624.82 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +7.75% | +666.86 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -8.98% | -772.56 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +8.29% | +713.10 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -9.50% | -817.11 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +10.42% | +895.95 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -15.14% | -1302.27 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +15.73% | +1352.33 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Monthly Whitewash of the Employment Situation
You Can Fool Most of the People Most of the Time
The media whitewashed the employment figures, as usual, Friday morning. But, they were pretty bad no matter how much lipstick you use. The headline figures were 7.2% unemployment and more than half a million jobs lost. The real figures showed 13.5% unemployment (the historically-comparable U-6 figure in the appendix to the report) and 954,000 jobs lost in December. If you were watching the mass media outlets, like CNBC or Bloomberg, you got bad data. They simply refused to report the real figures, probably because government has laid down the law: be our propaganda machine or we will not grant your reporters access to government officials for interviews and "off the record" information. People should let CNBC and Bloomberg advertisers know that they should demand that these so-called "news" organizations start reporting the truth instead of government propaganda. Maybe if advertisers put pressure on the networks, they would shape up and start telling the people the truth.
But, cheer up. The January figures to be released at the beginning of February, then revised in early March, are likely to be much worse! Eventually, the truth will come out. Unfortunately, after the public has been lied to for decades, it will be impossible for mass media to regain credibility in the future.
Ironically, the government doesn't actually lie outright. The truth is in the report, just not in the first few paragraphs. Reporters have been instructed by their management that they are to report only the information found in the first few paragraphs of the report. If they dig into the details and report what is already "hidden" in plain sight, they will be fired. And, in this economy, with newspapers dropping like flies, any journalist out of a job is going to end up permanently unemployed.
With the unemployment rate now at 13½% and rising rapidly, do you really think this isn't another Great Depression? It got to 25% in the Thirties and we're more than halfway there at this 14-month point in the current depression. This one is going to be larger than the 1930's depression. It may have to be called the "Greater Great Depression" itself and relegate the former one to the title, "Lesser Great Depression." The government must realize it is a depression, but isn't saying so publically for fear of causing a panic. The rate of decline in the economy this time is almost twice as fast as the Great Depression of the 1930s. That's because the level of debt going into this depression dwarfs the former one. And, remember that the last depression only ended due to a World War that destroyed vast property and irretrievable lives. What will it take to put Humpty back together again this time?
Let's not get all gloomy with the figures. There was a piece of "good news" in the report. That was that weekly hours worked dropped to the lowest level ever recorded. We are now vying with the French in that department. Of course, this is only good news for those who actually still have a job. And, it's likely that there will be at least six million more who will lose their jobs this year.
This entire depression could have been avoided if government had simply done their job and enforced regulations already on the books. Instead, they were bribed to look the other way by super-rich criminals (plutocrats) while the country was drained of its savings and pushed into a black hole of debt. Yet, today, when it's clear to see who did this to us, the criminals are still running the show on Wall Street and in Washington. The criminals should be locked up in a prison for life and their property seized by the public, starting with the outgoing President and his family.
These crooks in Washington and New York are not content with driving the country into the ground. Their intent is to make the prudent citizens of this country actually pay for their debts as a condition of recovery.
No real recovery in the economy will happen until the crooks are in jail instead of running corporations and government. It's time for a serf's revolt to overthrow the crooked lords.
The "Sorry We Missed It" Department
The Onion did a very good piece on why we need another bubble: Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In. Indeed.
In inflation-adjusted terms, the stock market has lost all of its gains since 1973. Think of that. All real gains of the last 36 years have disappeared! It's no wonder that Wall Street continued to drift lower on Friday as the reality of the current depression begins to sink in:
Change From 8 Jan 2009 To 9 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -1.64% | -143.28 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -1.48% | -128.99 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -3.09% | -270.10 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +3.02% | +263.63 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.14% | -187.39 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -2.14% | -187.26 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -4.47% | -390.43 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +4.17% | +364.53 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.29% | -199.87 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.23% | -194.68 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.87% | -338.56 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -7.43% | -649.78 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.41% | +298.28 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +7.94% | +694.38 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -4.13% | -360.66 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -3.70% | -323.60 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -7.63% | -667.23 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +7.12% | +622.63 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.33% | -204.02 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -2.24% | -196.11 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -4.44% | -388.55 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +4.26% | +372.58 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -2.72% | -238.21 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.56% | -223.92 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -5.20% | -454.24 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +4.89% | +427.15 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +1.76% | +153.72 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -1.81% | -157.81 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -1.51% | -132.00 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -0.64% | -55.90 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +0.81% | +70.48 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -1.32% | -115.83 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -3.26% | -285.21 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -6.03% | -527.36 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +5.97% | +522.10 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -3.18% | -278.05 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.15% | +13.20 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.46% | +40.49 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.34% | -29.75 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | +1.24% | +108.70 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.07% | +6.22 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -0.28% | -24.52 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -0.10% | -8.38 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +2.29% | +200.52 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +1.49% | +129.84 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +2.16% | +188.51 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +2.46% | +215.45 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.41% | +298.28 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +3.93% | +343.61 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +4.26% | +372.58 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +3.02% | +263.63 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +4.17% | +364.53 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +4.89% | +427.15 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +7.94% | +694.38 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +7.12% | +622.63 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +4.70% | +410.91 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +4.08% | +356.30 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +5.15% | +450.63 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +7.75% | +677.96 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +7.53% | +658.03 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +5.97% | +521.63 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +2.79% | +243.80 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +5.16% | +451.13 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +6.30% | +550.72 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +1.26% | +110.11 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +3.86% | +337.81 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +6.62% | +578.72 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +8.66% | +756.89 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +5.97% | +522.10 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +4.82% | +421.61 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +1.74% | +151.90 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +1.95% | +170.06 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +3.42% | +299.19 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +6.59% | +576.29 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +4.46% | +389.85 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +2.39% | +208.57 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +8.41% | +735.65 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -4.44% | -388.55 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -3.09% | -270.10 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -4.47% | -390.43 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -5.20% | -454.24 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -7.43% | -649.78 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -7.63% | -667.23 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -4.24% | -370.69 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -3.95% | -345.68 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -4.69% | -409.97 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -4.09% | -357.44 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -9.08% | -793.88 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -7.47% | -652.82 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -6.54% | -571.94 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -3.43% | -299.52 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -4.47% | -390.47 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -5.98% | -522.65 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -1.39% | -121.76 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -3.47% | -303.14 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -5.35% | -468.10 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -9.80% | -856.52 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -6.03% | -527.36 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -4.77% | -417.19 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -1.94% | -169.56 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -0.30% | -26.59 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -0.57% | -50.03 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | -9.31% | -813.87 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | +14.41% | +1260.03 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | -4.69% | -410.12 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDG) | +3.45% | +301.23 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +5.47% | +478.47 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +2.20% | +192.00 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -2.61% | -228.56 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -1.69% | -148.18 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -6.58% | -574.98 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +5.82% | +508.63 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -11.47% | -1002.51 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +12.05% | +1053.15 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -9.76% | -853.31 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +8.51% | +743.98 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -10.45% | -914.02 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +8.32% | +727.59 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Friday, January 09, 2009
How Many Jobs Were Lost in December?
Whatever number the government reports on Friday morning as jobs lost in December, it's going to pale in comparison to the jobs lost in January (which we won't hear about for another two months). The market has probably already discounted the December number after the ADP report yesterday, which was 693,000. Any number better than that is likely to be greeted with relief and buying. After more than a year of seeing the economy descend into depression, the powers-that-be on Wall Street and Capitol Hill still don't get it. Some of them actually believe the economy will bottom in 2009! These pampered pet dogs of the plutocrats are inbred and retarded. In other words, they are a product of America's public education system. It's no wonder that there's no end in sight for this decline in the economy. There are no leaders on Capitol Hill capable of steering the ship of state.
The digital TV transition due to happen on the 17th of February looks like it's going to be postponed. This transition has been planned for three years, but suddenly, the Democrats have decided to delay it. If that's a sign of the kind of governance we're going to see, it doesn't look good at all.
In a sign of total ignorance of reality, the leader of the Budget Committee, a Democrat, declared that a stimulus package would likely not be needed since the economy would bottom in April. Apparently, he also believes the tooth fairy will provide cash for all the unemployed workers who are losing their health care benefits because they have lost their jobs. The USA is the most backward country in the world because it relies upon employers to provide health care for its citizens. When a depression hits and workers lose their jobs, they lose their health care as well and the system utterly fails.
Stocks waffled Thursday ahead of the Employment Report, which is expected to show a rise in the real unemployment rate above 13% (the real figure will be buried in the appendix to the report and ignored by the mouthpieces for the government known as the media). The report is due out at 8:30am EST Friday morning. Look for the market to rally after the bad news is out.
Change From 7 Jan 2009 To 8 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -0.31% | -27.24 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -0.49% | -42.92 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -0.97% | -84.88 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +0.93% | +81.23 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.34% | +29.98 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.41% | +35.79 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.67% | +59.14 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.69% | -60.52 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +0.66% | +57.60 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +0.39% | +34.60 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +0.52% | +45.65 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +0.68% | +59.66 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +0.02% | +1.54 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -1.34% | -117.10 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +0.98% | +86.09 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +0.48% | +42.31 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.19% | +104.19 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -1.17% | -102.87 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +1.11% | +97.43 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +1.05% | +92.19 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.16% | +189.77 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.98% | -173.45 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +0.78% | +68.39 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +0.52% | +45.48 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.14% | +99.73 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -1.09% | -95.89 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -0.36% | -31.52 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +5.85% | +513.36 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +5.79% | +507.80 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +2.07% | +181.22 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -3.34% | -292.87 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +4.39% | +384.96 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -0.26% | -22.80 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +0.40% | +35.41 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -0.10% | -8.50 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -0.05% | -4.04 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -0.08% | -7.01 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.27% | +23.53 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.76% | -66.84 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | +0.72% | +62.75 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | +0.02% | +2.08 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -1.04% | -90.86 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -0.17% | -14.69 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | -1.08% | -94.58 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +0.54% | +47.50 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | -0.35% | -30.59 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | -0.62% | -54.34 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +0.02% | +1.54 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | -0.93% | -81.68 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.98% | -173.45 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +0.93% | +81.23 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -0.69% | -60.52 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -1.09% | -95.89 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -1.34% | -117.10 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -1.17% | -102.87 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | -0.58% | -51.01 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | -0.77% | -67.28 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | -0.13% | -11.28 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | -2.20% | -192.53 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | -1.31% | -115.02 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | -1.87% | -163.72 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | -6.05% | -530.90 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +1.17% | +102.59 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +1.00% | +87.73 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +0.59% | +51.45 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | -1.00% | -87.48 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | -1.20% | -105.46 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | -3.04% | -266.43 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +2.25% | +197.00 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -0.10% | -8.50 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | -1.70% | -148.74 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | -0.72% | -63.37 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +0.60% | +52.98 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | -1.43% | -125.16 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | -2.95% | -259.08 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +1.02% | +89.38 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | -2.85% | -249.52 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +1.69% | +148.55 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.16% | +189.77 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -0.97% | -84.88 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +0.67% | +59.14 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +1.14% | +99.73 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +0.68% | +59.66 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +1.19% | +104.19 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | +0.22% | +19.36 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | +0.60% | +52.51 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | +1.05% | +91.74 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | +1.21% | +105.84 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | +2.18% | +190.86 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | +1.64% | +143.91 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | +5.80% | +508.72 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -0.28% | -24.56 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -0.28% | -24.67 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -0.90% | -78.72 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | +0.87% | +76.39 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | +0.82% | +71.91 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | +1.73% | +151.60 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -0.67% | -58.86 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +0.40% | +35.41 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | +1.60% | +140.47 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | +0.95% | +83.25 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -0.96% | -84.53 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -3.52% | -308.66 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +5.07% | +444.32 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -3.93% | -344.79 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +2.33% | +204.24 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDG) | -3.04% | -266.93 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +1.11% | +97.66 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +0.12% | +10.71 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | +1.66% | +145.68 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -0.69% | -60.78 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | +1.01% | +88.91 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | -1.38% | -121.13 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | +2.01% | +176.00 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | -1.70% | -148.89 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | +3.93% | +345.05 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | -3.73% | -326.82 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | +1.37% | +120.56 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +0.71% | +62.02 |
Additional stock market commentary -- for subscribers only -- can be found here: Subscriber Notes (if you're reading this in plain text format or on the blog, visit the MyClues Home Page and click on "Subscriber Notes" in the Quick Links section at the top of the page).
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Wednesday, January 07, 2009
Job Loss Rate Hits 8.3 Million Per Annum
The Employment Report released Wednesday morning was a shocker for the crowd (but right in line with our estimate). According to the largest payroll processor in the US, ADP, the economy is losing jobs at the rate of 8.3 Million per annum. The figure for December alone was 693,000, about 50% higher than the consensus estimate. This depression is going to surpass the last depression in fairly short order.
The most noteworthy news in the report was that those engines of job creation, midcap and smallcap companies, are destroying jobs at a fast pace. Remember, large cap companies have not created any net new jobs in decades---every new job created has been in the midcap and smallcap companies. Because jobs are being rapidly lost in the job creation companies, this depression is only going to accelerate to the downside from here, with no recovery in sight.
Obama Is Thinking Way Too Small
We've said it before, but it bears repeating, Obama's proposed stimulus plan is just undersized and won't do more than provide a minor cushion for this decline into economic depression. Passage of the plan by Congress, which is by no means a certainty (Republicans, who acted like profligate spenders during the last eight years, are talking like fiscal conservatives again and could block the plan in the Senate), could cause a plateau for a few months, but the layoffs should start accelerating again as soon as business leaders determine that the stimulus is not enough.
Obama seems to be acting more like a fiscal conservative, also. This is no time for fiscal conservatism. The danger here is that he will send the economy into depression because of failure to take decisive action toward recovery. But, every sign points toward this outcome right now. Rather than being a hero and saving the economy, Obama is acting more like Jimmy Carter. Maybe we should expect him to wear a sweater, give us fireside chats, and ask us to turn down our thermostats to save money?
The Banking System is (Still) Insolvent
After $8 Trillion, the banking system is still insolvent and losing a quarter of a trillion dollars every month. Clearly, the bailout money from the government is going into a bottomless black hole of private greed called Wall Street.
The solution is something we proposed over a year ago: seize and nationalize all the banks. Actually, that's what's happening on an ongoing basis. As each bank drops into insolvency, the government rushes several billion dollars to the bank to prop it up, and takes away shares in return. The end result is likely to be identical, it just takes longer to accomplish.
End Game for the United States?
Some say this is the beginning of the end of the United States as a country. One of them was a cabinet member in the Reagan Administration, an assistant editor at the Wall Street Journal, and a contributing editor of the National Review (a generally Republican and conservative magazine). Paul Craig Roberts has made it clear in numerous columns through the years that the decisions made while the now-outgoing administration was in charge have been an unmitigated disaster for the United States and its future as global leader. He now questions whether there will be a recovery:
Today the situation is different. In the 21st century real wages have not risen. Workers have spent more by accepting deteriorating household balance sheets. They have maxed out their credit cards and spent the equity in their homes. Imitators of the US government, American consumers borrow to pay their bills.
The expansion of household debt relative to income created the illusion that the economy was sound. But the consumer economy was as much of a credit-based bubble as the real estate bubble and the financial sector bubble. The economy has lost its real basis.
He points out that we've been able to consume more than we produce by printing the world's reserve currency. When that comes to an end, it will have disasterous consequences:
This ability might be coming to an end. The US has been using up the bulk of the world's supply of saving for years in order to finance its consumption. Considering the outlook for the US economy and dollar, the productive nations of the world and those with oil have more dollars and dollar-denominated assets than they want. The US, with its collapsing economy, its bailouts of financial institutions, and its wars, is facing the largest government budget deficit in its history, both in absolute amount and as a percentage of national income. The easy monetary policy, which the Fed hopes will arrest deflation, threatens inflation and further deterioration in the dollar. Foreigners simply do not want to lend more large sums to a country that, from all appearances, has no way to close its trade and budget deficits. They certainly do not want to lend when the interest rate offered is close to zero and the reserve currency status of the dollar is in doubt.
The United States is walking on quicksand. It is dependent on foreigners for the funding to conduct the day-to-day operations of its government. Its economy is a hollow shell reduced to dependence on a financial sector that is discredited worldwide. America's government believes that its foreign wars of aggression are more important than any domestic needs, including the health care of its population.
Now that its supply route to feed its war of aggression in Afghanistan is threatened, the American government has the delusion that it will be able to supply its army in Afghanistan through thousands of miles of Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia. Only a government totally oblivious to reality would imagine that Russia's Putin, whose nose is rubbed in excrement every day by the US government, will permit America to transit Russian territory to resupply US imperial legions in Afghanistan.
What we are witnessing is a once great power engaging in fantasy to disguise from itself that it is a failed state.
The handwriting is on the wall. We estimate that the US Dollar will lose its reserve currency status within the next decade. When that happens, anyone whose portfolio is dollar-based will be destitute.
Change From 6 Jan 2009 To 7 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | -2.72% | -245.40 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | -2.54% | -229.00 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -4.79% | -431.46 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +4.96% | +447.18 |
| S&P 500 (index) | -2.92% | -263.60 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | -3.00% | -270.06 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -5.72% | -515.88 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +5.86% | +528.28 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | -2.84% | -256.44 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | -2.47% | -222.98 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | -3.52% | -317.57 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -7.04% | -634.71 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.55% | +320.21 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +6.68% | +602.33 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | -3.41% | -307.56 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | -2.95% | -265.62 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -6.52% | -588.21 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +5.82% | +524.26 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | -2.89% | -260.59 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | -2.84% | -256.09 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -5.59% | -504.19 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +5.36% | +482.80 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | -3.26% | -293.64 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | -2.90% | -261.05 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -6.35% | -572.75 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.68% | +512.51 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | -2.62% | -236.62 |
| Amex Gold (index) | -8.36% | -753.91 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | -7.85% | -707.72 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | -2.80% | -252.04 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | +5.15% | +464.30 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | -5.78% | -520.99 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | -4.88% | -439.69 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -10.37% | -935.22 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +10.12% | +912.50 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | -4.55% | -410.32 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | +0.39% | +35.35 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | +0.02% | +1.86 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.92% | -82.73 |
| ISHARES GS $ INVESTO (LQD) | -0.84% | -75.52 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 1-3YR (SHY) | -0.07% | -6.41 |
| ProShares ETFs | ||
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 7-10 (PST) | -0.09% | -8.33 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT LEHMAN 20YR (TBT) | -0.36% | -32.24 |
| SHORT QQQ PROSHARES (PSQ) | +2.81% | +253.12 |
| SHRT DOW30 PROSHARES (DOG) | +2.46% | +221.76 |
| SHRT S& P500 PROSHRS (SH) | +2.97% | +268.12 |
| SHRT MC400 PROSHARES (MYY) | +3.04% | +274.10 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | +3.55% | +320.21 |
| SHORT RUSSELL2000 PR (RWM) | +3.36% | +303.06 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | +5.36% | +482.80 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | +4.96% | +447.18 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | +5.86% | +528.28 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | +5.68% | +512.51 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | +6.68% | +602.33 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | +5.82% | +524.26 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K VALU (SJF) | +5.58% | +502.89 |
| PST ULSHT RSL1K GR (SFK) | +5.44% | +490.74 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC VAL (SJL) | +5.77% | +520.27 |
| PST ULSHT RSL MC GR (SDK) | +7.30% | +658.08 |
| PST ULTSHT RSL2K VAL (SJH) | +6.39% | +575.65 |
| PST ULSHT RSL2K GR (SKK) | +6.41% | +577.75 |
| ULTRASHORT BASIC MAT (SMN) | +10.46% | +943.38 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SZK) | +1.72% | +155.24 |
| ULTRASHORT CONSUMER (SCC) | +5.57% | +501.88 |
| ULTRASHORT FINANCIAL (SKF) | +8.64% | +778.81 |
| ULTRASHORT HEALTH CA (RXD) | +3.16% | +284.48 |
| ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIA (SIJ) | +6.92% | +623.70 |
| ULTRASHORT OIL & GAS (DUG) | +7.75% | +698.27 |
| ULTRASHORT REAL ESTA (SRS) | +5.61% | +505.67 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | +10.12% | +912.50 |
| ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOG (REW) | +6.83% | +615.91 |
| ULTRASHORT UTILITIES (SDP) | +3.55% | +319.87 |
| PROSHARES SHR MSCI E (EUM) | +5.57% | +502.51 |
| PROSHARES SHORT MSCI (EFZ) | +1.74% | +156.87 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (EFU) | +3.45% | +310.72 |
| PROSHARES UTLRASHORT (EEV) | +11.05% | +995.78 |
| PROSHARES US MSCI JP (EWV) | +2.65% | +238.90 |
| PROSHARES ULTRASHORT (FXP) | +15.64% | +1409.66 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | -5.59% | -504.19 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | -4.79% | -431.46 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | -5.72% | -515.88 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | -6.35% | -572.75 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | -7.04% | -634.71 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | -6.52% | -588.21 |
| PST ULT RUS1000 VAL (UVG) | -5.67% | -511.53 |
| PST ULT RSL1000 GR (UKF) | -5.34% | -481.78 |
| PST ULT RSL MC VALU (UVU) | -6.66% | -600.66 |
| PST ULT RSL MC GR PS (UKW) | -6.30% | -567.99 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 VALU (UVT) | -6.63% | -597.79 |
| PST ULT RSL2000 GR (UKK) | -6.88% | -619.95 |
| ULTRA BASIC MATERIAL (UYM) | -12.21% | -1100.80 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER GOODS (UGE) | -2.46% | -221.62 |
| ULTRA CONSUMER SERVI (UCC) | -5.54% | -499.06 |
| ULTRA FINANCIALS PRO (UYG) | -8.54% | -769.76 |
| ULTRA HEALTH CARE PR (RXL) | -1.74% | -156.81 |
| ULTRA INDUSTRIALS PR (UXI) | -7.21% | -649.87 |
| ULTRA OIL & GAS PROS (DIG) | -8.01% | -722.18 |
| ULTRA REAL ESTATE PR (URE) | -6.14% | -553.68 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | -10.37% | -935.22 |
| ULTRA TECHNOLOGY PRO (ROM) | -6.93% | -624.74 |
| ULTRA UTILITIES PROS (UPW) | -3.30% | -297.40 |
| Other ETFs | ||
| PS NQ100 BUYWRITE (PQBW) | -0.60% | -53.98 |
| PWRSHRS NDQ INTERNET (PNQI) | -2.09% | -188.83 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOM) | +10.90% | +982.46 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDD) | -8.59% | -774.74 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BOS) | +4.99% | +449.86 |
| POWERSHARES DB BASE (BDG) | -2.95% | -266.30 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DTO) | +30.85% | +2781.25 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (SZO) | +14.39% | +1297.54 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (DXO) | -12.75% | -1149.75 |
| POWERSHARES DB CRUDE (OLO) | -7.17% | -646.30 |
| 300% Leverage ETFs | ||
| Direxion Large Cap Bull 3x Shares (BGU) | -8.41% | -757.87 |
| Direxion Large Cap Bear 3x Shares (BGZ) | +8.81% | +793.82 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bull 3x Shares (TNA) | -9.14% | -824.25 |
| Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x Shares (TZA) | +8.56% | +771.94 |
| Direxion Energy Bull 3x Shares (ERX) | -12.10% | -1091.20 |
| Direxion Energy Bear 3x Shares (ERY) | +11.58% | +1044.32 |
| Direxion Financial Bull 3x Shares (FAS) | -13.73% | -1238.11 |
| Direxion Financial Bear 3x Shares (FAZ) | +12.73% | +1147.18 |
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· Quarter-Hourly Chart Comments
· Detailed Comments . . . .
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Layoffs Accelerate
Tuesday brought news of expanding layoffs. Alcoa announced they would be laying off 13,500 workers, taking almost a billion dollars in charges and ceasing their stock buybacks. Both IBM and Microsoft are said to be readying an announcement of massive layoffs in the second half of January. This is significant for IBM, at least, because IBM employs the best group of economists on the planet. The only reason IBM would even be considering layoffs is if those economists are not looking for a turn up in the economy in the second half of the year. And, if IBM economists are not looking for a bottom in the second half of the year, the stock market has no business calling a recovery either.
Stocks struggled higher as a major top may be forming here:
Change From 5 Jan 2009 To 6 Jan 2009
| Security | Percentage Change | Change in Dow Industrials Points |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials (index) | +0.69% | +62.21 |
| DIAMONDS TRUST SER 1 (DIA) | +0.50% | +44.91 |
| ULTRA DOW30 PROSHRS (DDM) | +1.02% | +91.41 |
| PT ULTRSHRT DOW30 PS (DXD) | -1.18% | -105.33 |
| S&P 500 (index) | +0.71% | +64.00 |
| S& P DEP RECEIPTS (SPY) | +0.67% | +59.78 |
| ULTRA S& P500 PROSHRS (SSO) | +1.62% | +144.61 |
| PT ULTRSHRT SP500 PS (SDS) | -1.22% | -109.03 |
| NYSE Composite (index) | +1.02% | +91.54 |
| ISHARES NYSE CMP IDX (NYC) | +1.13% | +101.19 |
| S&P SmallCap 600 (index) | +1.69% | +151.42 |
| PROSH ULTRA SMALLCAP (SAA) | +2.82% | +252.25 |
| SHORT SMALLCAP600 PR (SBB) | -1.82% | -163.30 |
| ULTRASHORT SMALLCAP6 (SDD) | -3.45% | -309.28 |
| Russell 2000 (index) | +1.91% | +170.89 |
| ISHARE RUS 2000 INDX (IWM) | +1.69% | +150.99 |
| ULTRA RUSSELL2000 PR (UWM) | +3.79% | +339.71 |
| ULTRASHORT RUSSELL20 (TWM) | -2.65% | -237.12 |
| NASDAQ-100 (index) | +0.75% | +67.44 |
| POWERSHARES QQQ TR 1 (QQQQ) | +1.00% | +89.47 |
| ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES (QLD) | +2.05% | +183.59 |
| PT UTLRSHRT QQQ PS (QID) | -1.89% | -169.34 |
| S&P MidCap 400 (index) | +1.61% | +144.09 |
| ISHARE SP MC 400 INX (IJH) | +1.20% | +107.55 |
| ULTRA MC400 PROSHRS (MVV) | +2.45% | +218.94 |
| PT ULTRSHR MC400 PS (MZZ) | -1.90% | -170.25 |
| GREENHAVEN CONT IDX (GCC) | +2.10% | +187.94 |
| Amex Gold (index) | +2.56% | +228.99 |
| MKT VECT GOLD MNRS (GDX) | +2.74% | +245.40 |
| STREETTRACKS GOLD TR (GLD) | +0.77% | +68.88 |
| DB GOLD DBL SH ETN (DZZ) | -1.57% | -140.96 |
| DB GOLD DBL LG ETN (DGP) | +1.73% | +154.80 |
| Semiconductor Sector (index) | +5.05% | +451.87 |
| ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS (USD) | +10.68% | +956.25 |
| ULTRASHORT SEMICONDU (SSG) | -8.90% | -796.95 |
| ISHARE DJ FIN SC INX (IYF) | +1.79% | +160.30 |
| ISHARES LEHMAN 20 YR (TLT) | -1.01% | -90.04 |
| ISHARESLEHMAN 7-10YR (IEF) | -0.06% | -5.54 |
| ISHARES LEH AGG FD (AGG) | -0.56% | -50.21 |