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Tuesday, June 18, 2013

How To Tell When the Stock Bull Market Ends

There's a simple indicator which can tell you when the stock bull market has ended.

Unfortunately, it's not easy to obtain this indicator. But, here it is. It's the number of new 52-week lows attained by common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. When the number of new lows stays below 40, it's a sign that it's a correction and not a new bear market. So far in the current correction, the maximum number of new lows has been 36, comfortably below the 40 warning level.

Moreover, during the April correction, the number of new lows hit 78 at its maximum, yet the market continued higher.

So, while this isn't a foolproof indicator (no single indicator ever is), it's a pretty good one. Right now, it's saying “correction” not “bear market.”