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Saturday, June 15, 2013

Why Tesla Will Crush The Competition

AutofilTV put the Tesla Model S to the test in Norway last winter. The results were highly impressive as the video below demonstrates:

Essentially this shows that the Model S has a better than 200 mile range (actually, 205 miles) in one of the coldest environments on Earth where people actually live and work.

We thought it would be interesting to calculate what the Model S could do in the near future—say, the next five years—with battery technology that's in the pipeline. Currently, the Model S has a battery pack with 240 Wh/kg (240 watt-hours per kilogram) capacity. A conservative estimate of advances in battery technology are projected to quintuple that capacity. We said “conservative”—it could be much higher than that. Being less than a quintupling of capacity is extremely unlikely.

The bottom line is that, even in a country with frigid winters like Norway, a fully-charged battery in 2018 should be able to have a range greater than 1000 miles. Think about it. Who would ever have range anxiety with that kind of range? Oh, it might take quite a while to charge the battery up to full capacity in the first place. But, putting the car on the charger overnight should be quite adequate even for extensive driving on a daily basis. For a long road trip, even a 500-mile segment would only mean the battery had half a charge left at the end of the day (500 miles)—plus a recharge overnight would top it up.

Bottom Line: Tesla has a technology lead now of about five years right now. Essentially, it is going to own the car market in the future.