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Friday, December 13, 2013

Go North, Young Man

With Climate Change drastically altering the Arctic environment, that's where the money is heading. Washington’s Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars said this week, “As climate change renders the Arctic increasingly accessible, there has been a substantial uptick in industry interest in the region.” About $100 billion in investments by Big Oil is heading for the top of the world over the next decade. The idea is that we plunder the Earth's fossil fuel for those living now and push the consequences onto our grandchildren. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the Arctic could contain 30 percent of the world’s undiscovered natural gas reserves and 13 percent of such reserves for oil.

And, just what are those consequences? Nothing less than a massive restructuring of the jet stream, the main driver of weather. NOAA reports:

  • Air temperatures: While Eurasia had spring air temperatures as much as 7°F above normal, central Alaska experienced its coldest April since 1924 with birch and aspen trees budding the latest (26 May) since observations began in 1972. Summer across a broad swath of the Arctic was cooler than the previous six summers, when there had been pronounced retreat of sea ice. But Fairbanks, just below the Arctic Circle in Alaska, experienced a record 36 days with temperatures at or exceeding 80°F.

  • Snow cover: The snow extent in May and June across the Northern Hemisphere (when snow is mainly located over the Arctic) was below average in 2013. The North American snow cover during this period was the fourth lowest on record. A new record low was reached in May over Eurasia.

  • Sea ice: Despite a relatively cool summer over the Arctic Ocean, the extent of sea ice in September 2013 was the sixth lowest since observations began in 1979. The seven lowest recorded sea ice extents have occurred in the last seven years.

  • Ocean temperature and salinity: Sea surface temperatures in August were as much as 7°F higher than the long-term average of 1982-2006 in the Barents and Kara Seas, which can be attributed to an early retreat of sea ice cover and increased solar heating. Twenty-five percent more heat and freshwater is stored in the Beaufort Gyre, a clockwise ocean current circulating north of Alaska and Canada, since the 1970s.

  • Greenland ice sheet: During a summer when air temperatures were near the long-term average, melting occurred across as much as 44 percent of the surface of the Greenland ice sheet, close to the long-term average but much smaller than the record 97 percent in 2012.

  • Vegetation: The Arctic is greening as vegetation responds to warmer conditions and a longer growing season. Since observations began in 1982, Arctic-wide tundra vegetation productivity (greenness) has increased, with the growing season length increasing by 9 days each decade.

  • Wildlife: Large land mammal populations continued trends seen over the last several decades. Muskox numbers have increased since the 1970s, in part due to conservation and introduction efforts, while caribou and reindeer herds continue to have unusually low numbers.

For the first time, scientists also released new information on marine fishes and black carbon. Highlights:

  • Marine fishes: The long-term warming trend, including the loss of sea ice and warming of waters, is believed to be contributing to the northward migration into the Arctic of some fish such as Atlantic mackerel, Atlantic cod, capelin, eelpout, sculpin and salmonids.

  • Black carbon: While black carbon (soot) originating from outside the Arctic has decreased by 55 percent since the early 1990s, primarily due to economic collapse in the former Soviet Union, increasing numbers of wildfires fueled by greater amounts of vegetation in a warmer, drier climate, have the potential to increase atmospheric black carbon in the high latitudes.

“The Arctic Report Card presents strong evidence of widespread, sustained changes that are driving the Arctic environmental system into a new state and we can expect to see continued widespread and sustained change in the Arctic,” said Martin Jeffries, principal editor of the 2013 Report Card, science adviser for the U.S. Arctic Research Commission, and research professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. “But we risk not seeing those changes if we don’t sustain and add to our current long-term observing capabilities. Observations are fundamental to Arctic environmental awareness, government and private sector operations, scientific research, and the science-informed decision-making required by the U.S. National Strategy for the Arctic.”

In 2006, NOAA’s Climate Program Office introduced the State of the Arctic Report which established a baseline of conditions at the beginning of the 21st century. It is updated annually as the Arctic Report Card to document the often-quickly changing conditions in the Arctic. To view this year’s report, visit http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/.