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Thursday, August 07, 2014

El Nino Arrival Delayed, But Still 65% Probable

The imminent arrival of El Nino was not to be. According to the Climate Prediction Center:
Over the last month, model forecasts have slightly delayed the El Niño onset, with most models now indicating an onset during July-September, with the event continuing into early 2015. A strong El Niño is not favored in any of the ensemble averages, and slightly more models call for a weak event rather than a moderate event. At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during August-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5°C and 0.9°C). The chance of El Niño has decreased to about 65% during the Northern Hemisphere fall and early winter.