|Skeptics like to pick random data to “prove” their point, such as declaring that Global Warming stopped in the late Nineties. Of course, that only fools other deniers. Certainly, it is the case that air temperatures have had a flat period from 1998 to 2014. But, overall global temperatures have continued to rise in the oceans, which have absorbed the excess heating of Global Warming for the past seventeen years.
That's coming to an end, however. The oceans are beginning to give us back all that heat in a big way. The reason is that the Pacific Ocean has been in the negative (cool) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO tends to run a couple of decades in the negative phase, then another few decades in the positive (warm) phase. It has been studied extensively and its current negative phase is powerful enough to suppress El Ninos. It also brings extensive drought to the American Southwest. We've certainly seen quite a bit of drought in the last several years.
Theodor Landscheidt studied cycles of the PDO before he passed away several years ago. He was particularly interested in understanding how the cycles of the sun affected our weather. He created a model of the PDO and published it online in Long-Range Forecast of U.S. Drought Based on Solar Activity. In that paper, he predicted that we would be suffering drought under the influence of the negative (cool) phase of the PDO until early 2016. He was correct in that prediction to date—but is his prediction of 2016 on target still?
We may be seeing a phase transition in the PDO from negative to positive right now, almost two years earlier than his prediction. Axel Timmermann of the University of Hawaii and Kevin Trenberth of the US National Center for Atmospheric Research are suggesting we may be seeing the PDO turn positive in Warming Pacific Drives Global Temperatures:
The hiatus in global warming of air temperatures is either over now or will be over very soon. This will cement public opinion concerning Global Warming and create a consensus that we have to do something about the problem, rather than letting it fester as we have for the last few decades.
The good news? Fighting Global Warming will create many new jobs and will stimulate the economy. We've all heard about the bad news of Global Warming. Take heart that the effort to rollback the warming will create many, many jobs to boost the economy in coming years.