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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds nearing an important buy signal now.

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Risk-on returns as oil and stocks bounce and bonds take gas.

Monday, December 28, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. "Buy bonds" proved profitable on Monday. Has Santa left the building?

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Seasonals Continue This Week in the Energy Markets

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis reports have been updated on the website. Santa brought a January Effect rally last week.

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Global Warming Brings a Blue Christmas to Texas

A White Christmas is rare in Texas, but climate change may be responsible for the first Blue Christmas this year. The state flower—bluebonnets—normally bloom in spring. But, reports are that the bluebonnets are being fooled by global warming and blooming months early this year.

Somebody should tell Ted Cruz. He's a science denier. If the bluebonnets are blooming early, it shows how big changes are happening to our climate.

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa Clause Rally boosts stocks, but pummels bonds. Reversal coming?

Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A weak DXY helped lift equities today. Bonds could be close to a change-in-trend.

Monday, December 21, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Has volatility been drained from the market? Mahoney has Christmas Day to be a high on his Panic Scale.

Do We Need the Fed?

By Ron Paul, originally published at Ron Paul Institute

Stocks rose Wednesday following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of the first interest rate increase since 2006. However, stocks fell just two days later. One reason the positive reaction to the Fed’s announcement did not last long is that the Fed seems to lack confidence in the economy and is unsure what policies it should adopt in the future.

At her Wednesday press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen acknowledged continuing “cyclical weakness” in the job market. She also suggested that future rate increases are likely to be as small, or even smaller, then Wednesday’s. However, she also expressed concerns over increasing inflation, which suggests the Fed may be open to bigger rate increases.

Many investors and those who rely on interest from savings for a substantial part of their income cheered the increase. However, others expressed concern that even this small rate increase will weaken the already fragile job market.

These critics echo the claims of many economists and economic historians who blame past economic crises, including the Great Depression, on ill-timed money tightening by the Fed. While the Federal Reserve is responsible for our boom-bust economy, recessions and depressions are not caused by tight monetary policy. Instead, the real cause of economic crisis is the loose money policies that precede the Fed’s tightening.

When the Fed floods the market with artificially created money, it lowers the interest rates, which are the price of money. As the price of money, interest rates send signals to businesses and investors regarding the wisdom of making certain types of investments. When the rates are artificially lowered by the Fed instead of naturally lowered by the market, businesses and investors receive distorted signals. The result is over-investment in certain sectors of the economy, such as housing.

This creates the temporary illusion of prosperity. However, since the boom is rooted in the Fed’s manipulation of the interest rates, eventually the bubble will burst and the economy will slide into recession. While the Federal Reserve may tighten the money supply before an economic downturn, the tightening is simply a futile attempt to control the inflation resulting from the Fed’s earlier increases in the money supply.

After the bubble inevitably bursts, the Federal Reserve will inevitability try to revive the economy via new money creation, which starts the whole boom-bust cycle all over again. The only way to avoid future crashes is for the Fed to stop creating inflation and bubbles.

Some economists and policy makers claim that the way to stop the Federal Reserve from causing economic chaos is not to end the Fed but to force the Fed to adopt a “rules-based” monetary policy. Adopting rules-based monetary policy may seem like an improvement, but, because it still allows a secretive central bank to manipulate the money supply, it will still result in Fed-created booms and busts.

The only way to restore economic stability and avoid a major economic crisis is to end the Fed, or at least allow Americans to use alterative currencies. Fortunately, more Americans than ever are studying Austrian economics and working to change our monetary system.

Thanks to the efforts of this growing anti-Fed movement, Audit the Fed had twice passed the House of Representatives, and the Senate is scheduled to vote on it on January 12. Auditing the Fed, so the American people can finally learn the full truth about the Fed’s operations, is an important first step in restoring a sound monetary policy. Hopefully, the Senate will take that step and pass Audit the Fed in January.

Copyright © 2015 by RonPaul Institute. Permission to reprint in whole or in part is gladly granted, provided full credit and a live link are given.
Please donate to the Ron Paul Institute

Sunday, December 20, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Volatility rules in stock and bond markets.

Friday, December 18, 2015

The Booming Solar Market: An Entrepreneurial Opportunity

Mike Munsell of Greentech Media writes:

The ITC extension currently written into the omnibus spending bill will result in a 20-gigawatt annual solar market in the U.S. by 2020.

A five-year extension to the solar investment tax credit (ITC), which is currently included in the omnibus spending bill under consideration in Congress, would result in 25 gigawatts (GW) of additional solar capacity over the next five years -- a 54 percent increase over a no-extension scenario. According to GTM Research, which just released a preliminary updated state- and segment-level forecasts based on the current omnibus language, ITC extension will foster $40 billion in incremental investment in solar between 2016 and 2020.

FIGURE: U.S. PV Installations With and Without ITC Extension, 2010-2020

Source: GTM Research

"The ITC extension currently written into the omnibus spending bill will result in a 20-gigawatt annual solar market in the U.S. by 2020," said Shayle Kann, senior VP of GTM Research. "At that rate, more solar will be installed each year than was added to the grid cumulatively through 2014."

Compare that projection to the total amount of solar added during 2015: just 3 gigawatts. Clearly, this slow-growth economy has a pocket of high growth within it.

Thursday, December 17, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Santa is MIA, but our signals are working profitably.

Sustainable Non-Fossil Fuel Energy Is Within Reach

Elon Musk explains what it will take to tap into an endless source of free energy in this talk he gave in Paris on December 2nd:

In an interview on December 15 at the American Geophysical Union meeting, Musk mentioned that if we covered just a corner of Utah or Nevada with solar panels, we could power the entire US, as Nature News' Lauren Morello reported.

Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Long term rates are heading lower, not higher. The TV journalists get it wrong.

Solar Savings

According to Solar City, their customers have reaped the following benefits by going solar: Estimated savings by their customers so far: $145,800,888 and
2,462,014 Tons of CO2 conserved by their customers and counting

Equivalent to not driving a car for 5,827,884,920 miles or avoiding the use of 1,402,645,723 gallons of water.

Solar City Urges Congress To Boost Solar and Fight Climate Change

WASHINGTON, Dec. 16, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- SolarCity urged Congress to swiftly pass comprehensive legislation that includes an extension of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar. The provision, included in sweeping appropriations and tax bills introduced by House Speaker Paul Ryan today, is the result of weeks-long bipartisan negotiations between Senate and House leaders.

The proposed legislation would follow on the heels of the historic global climate agreement in Paris, where 195 countries committed to tackle climate change and galvanize greater investment in clean energy. Consistent, long-term policies supporting solar energy, along with other clean energy sources, are critical to the growth of a lower-carbon economy. This week, analysts told the National Journal that lifting the ban on crude oil exports would have a negligible impact on U.S. carbon emissions, while greater support and certainty for solar could more than double the nation's total installed solar capacity.

"On behalf of over 15,000 employees here in the U.S. and nearly 300,000 customers, SolarCity applauds the bipartisan agreement that prioritizes the growth of solar in the United States," said SolarCity CEO Lyndon Rive. "Using clean energy is the most important step an individual can take to address climate change and protect future generations. Combined with the historic Paris climate agreement, long-term certainty for the ITC sends a strong signal to the marketplace that investment in clean energy is the right way to drive continued economic growth and job creation. We urge Congress to act quickly to enact the measure."

BACKGROUND:

The ITC, which was set to expire at the end of 2016, is a 30% federal tax credit for businesses (under Section 48 of the tax code) and homeowners (under Section 25D) to incentivize installation of solar energy systems, fuel cells, combined heat and power systems, microturbines, small wind systems, and geothermal heat pumps.

Since its creation in 2006, the ITC has delivered job growth, cost reductions, and domestic energy deployment across the country.

About SolarCity
SolarCity (SCTY) provides clean energy. The company has disrupted the century-old energy industry by providing renewable electricity directly to homeowners, businesses and government organizations for less than they spend on utility bills. SolarCity gives customers control of their energy costs to protect them from rising rates. The company makes solar energy easy by taking care of everything from design and permitting to monitoring and maintenance. SolarCity currently serves 19 states. Visit the company online at www.solarcity.com and follow the company on Facebook & Twitter.

SolarCity is an Equal Opportunity / Affirmative Action employer committed to diversity in the workplace. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, protected veteran status, gender identity or any other factor protected by applicable federal, state or local laws.

This release contains forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, statements regarding projections as to manufacturing timelines, volume and costs. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times at, or by, which such performance or results will be achieved, if at all. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in or suggested by the forward looking statements. You should read the section entitled "Risk Factors" in SolarCity's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and identifies certain of these and additional risks and uncertainties. We do not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

To view the original version on PR Newswire, visit:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/solarcity-urges-swift-passage-of-bipartisan-year-end-tax-package-300193675.html

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Turnaround Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Fed hikes rates, the economy goes into recession. Will they be blamed?

Monday, December 14, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Ready for Turnaround Tuesday?

Ben Hunt's Storm Warning

Ben Hunt thinks there's a storm coming in the markets. He published a note today called Storm Warning:
Can everyone saying “a 25 bps rate hike doesn’t change anything” or “manufacturing is a small part of the US economy today, so the ISM number doesn’t mean much” or “trade with China is only a few percent of US GDP, so their currency devaluation isn’t important” just stop? Seriously. Can you just stop? Maybe if you were making these statements back in the ‘80s – and by that I mean the 1880s, back when the US was effectively a huge island in the global economy – it would make some sense, but today it’s just embarrassing.

There is a Category 5 deflationary hurricane forming off the Chinese coast as Beijing accelerates the devaluation of the yuan against the dollar under the guise of “reform”. I say forming … the truth is that this deflationary storm has already laid waste to the global commodity complex, doing trillions of dollars in damage. I say forming … the truth is that this deflationary storm has driven inflation expectations down to levels last seen when the world was coming to an end in the Lehman aftermath. And now the Fed is going to tighten? Are you kidding me?

Look, I’m personally no fan of ZIRP and QE and “communication policy”, certainly not the insatiable market devourers they’ve become over the past few years. But you can’t just wish away the Brave New World of globally interlocked, policy-driven, machine-dominated capital markets in some wave of nostalgia and regret for “normalized” days. In an existential financial crisis, emergency government action always becomes permanent government policy, reshaping markets in similarly permanent ways. This was true in the 1930s and it’s true today. It’s neither good nor bad. It just IS. Did QE1 save the market? Yes. Did QE2 and QE3 and all the misbegotten QE children in Europe and Asia break the market? Yes. And in the immortal words of shopkeepers everywhere: you break it, you bought it. The Fed owns capital markets today, like it or not, and raising rates now, as opposed to a year ago when there was a glimmer of a chance to walk back the Narrative of central bank omnipotence, isn’t “brave” or “prudent” or “necessary” or any of the other laudatory adjectives you’ll hear from Fed media apologists after they raise. It’s simply buyer’s remorse. The Fed is sick and tired of owning the market, sick and tired of giving interviews to CNBC every time some jobs report hits the wires, sick and tired of this Frankenstein’s monster called communication policy. So they’re going to raise rates, declare victory, and hope that things go their way.

Am I annoyed by China’s currency actions and their adept use of communication policy to shape the Narrative around devaluation? Not at all. This is exactly what China must do to bolster economic growth while maintaining the pleasant diplomatic fiction that they’re not a command economy. What annoys me is the Fed’s apparent hell-bent intention to force a low-level currency war with China AND whack our own manufacturing and industrial base on the kneecaps with a crowbar, just so they can get out of the communication policy corner they’ve painted themselves into.

Three or four years ago, one of THE dominant market narratives, particularly in the value investment crowd, was the “renaissance of American manufacturing”. Not only was the manufacturing sector going to be the engine of job growth in this country (remember “good jobs with good wages”? me, neither), but this was going to be the engine of economic growth, period (remember the National Export Initiative and “doubling exports in five years”? me, neither). Now we are told that we’re just old fogies to worry about a contracting US manufacturing sector. Now we are told that a global recession in the industrial and commodity complex is well contained here in our vibrant services-led economy. Right. You want some fries with that?

So what’s to be done? You do what you always do in a deflationary, risk-off world – you buy long-dated US Treasuries. Stocks down, USTs up. Of course, if you think that the yield curve is going to steepen after the Fed does whatever it’s going to do this week … you know, because the Fed rate hike is obviously an all-clear sign that we have a robust self-sustaining economic recovery and we’re off to the races … then you want to do the exact opposite, which is to buy stocks and sell the 10-year UST. Yep, time to load up on some bank stocks if that’s your view.

What else can you do? You can read the Epsilon Theory note “I Know It Was You, Fredo” and consider ways to make your portfolio more convex, i.e., more resilient and responsive to both upside and downside surprises in these policy-driven markets. The big institutional allocators use derivative portfolio overlays to inject convexity into their portfolio, and that’s all well and good. But there are steps the rest of us can take, whether that’s adopting strategies that can short markets and asset classes (like some tactical strategies and most trend-following strategies) or whether that’s investing in niche companies and niche strategies that are designed to outperform in either a surprisingly deflationary or a surprisingly inflationary world. The trick really isn’t to choose this fund or that fund. The trick is to broaden your perception of portfolio outcomes so that you don’t have a misplaced faith in either the Fed or econometric models.

I suppose there’s one more thing we should all do. We should all prepare ourselves to perform some emergency surgery on the deck of whatever portfolio ship we’re sailing in 2016. Because with a Fed hike the currency wars will begin in earnest, magnifying the deflationary storm already wreaking havoc in industrials, energy, and materials. No sector or strategy is going to be immune, and we’re all going to suffer some casualties.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. #WeekendAnalysis will be available later today on the website.

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Goldman Sachs: Investors Should Be Focused on 4 Technologies for Maximum Climate Impact

The investment bank urges investors to focus on solar, wind, LEDs and electric cars for maximum climate impact.

Stephen Lacey of GreentechMedia writes:

A perennial debate has once again emerged at this year's U.N. climate talks: in order to make a meaningful dent in carbon emissions, do we need to invest more in R&D or more in the deployment of existing technologies?

The world's largest investment bank, Goldman Sachs, is now weighing in.

In a report issued this week, Goldman concluded that the most effective mid-term solution for lowering carbon emissions -- and making money -- is backing existing technologies that are ready to scale. In fact, analysts at the bank believe that the majority of investor dollars should go to only four technologies: solar photovoltaics, onshore wind, LED lighting and electric cars.

"We believe investors should focus on this set of front-runners with the potential to shift emission trajectories and reshape competitive dynamics on a five- to 10-year view," wrote the group of analysts.

These four areas collectively make up the vast majority of the low-carbon investment opportunity, which Goldman values at $600 billion a year.  

"There are many other low-carbon technologies that either lack the scale or the momentum to drive significant large-scale global change in 2015-2025. They include: (1) mature technologies with relatively slow, stable growth trajectories; (2) early-stage technologies that have growth but still lack scale; and (3) technologies that are gradually losing regulatory support," wrote the Goldman analysts.

Those technologies include biofuels, nuclear, large hydro, carbon capture, marine power and offshore wind. 

The report's findings contradict the conclusions of some of the world's top tech billionaires, who believe far more money needs to flow into early-stage technologies in order to radically improve upon the cost and performance of intermittent renewables. This week, those billionaires formed the Breakthrough Energy Coalition and pledged to spend far more on cleantech R&D.

“The existing system of basic research, clean energy investment, regulatory frameworks, and subsidies fails to sufficiently mobilize investment in truly transformative energy solutions for the future,” states the coalition's website.

It's not surprising that the bankers at Goldman Sachs, who are focused on profits, see the world differently than tech CEOs who are willing to fund risky ideas that may not pay off for decades. 

Goldman isn't betting against technologies outside of its four preferred areas. Instead, the bank is focused on the "greatest market dislocations" between now and 2025. Solar PV, wind, electric cars and LEDs are the technologies best prepared to erode fossil-fuel consumption within that timeframe.

By 2020, wind and solar alone will be producing the oil equivalent of 6.2 million barrels per day -- adding more energy to the global supply, as American shale producers did from 2010-2015.

"We expect wind and solar to account for over half of (capacity-adjusted) new installations in electricity generation capacity by 2025. In energy terms, this now puts the phenomenon of solar PV and onshore wind on par with U.S. shale oil production," wrote the Goldman researchers.

In order to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, climate scientists say greenhouse-gas emissions need to peak by around 2020. On their current trajectories, solar PV and wind could eliminate 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions each year by 2025 -- or about one-sixth of the emissions pumped into the atmosphere globally in 2014

The Goldman report only looks at macroeconomic trends. It does not consider the limitations of conventional renewables due to grid constraints, land-use conflicts or performance. Some argue those factors will create an upper limit to the amount of wind and solar that can be deployed on grids around the world. 

study released by MIT this week backs up Goldman's conclusions about installation and cost trends. After examining the climate pledges of countries around the world, MIT researchers found that conventional wind and solar would be the biggest beneficiaries of carbon reduction efforts. 

According to the report, global solar installations will grow fivefold and wind will grow nearly threefold by 2030 under voluntary carbon-reduction plans established by countries. This could result in a 50 percent cost reduction for solar PV and a 25 percent cost reduction for wind by that date. 

Friday, December 11, 2015

Deflationary Signs

Damn the Matrix stays on top of the accelerating global deflationary trend:

Researchers at the University of East Anglia, UK, and the Global Carbon Project found that carbon emissions could decline by 0.6% in 2015, a departure from a decade of growing 2.4% per year. The research, published in Nature Climate Change, attributes the decline to a reduction in China’s coal consumption as its economy slows and it moves to cleaner, renewable energy sources.

“China is trying to deal massively with its air pollution problem,” says study co-author Corinne Le Quéré, director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in Norwich. “And its renewables are growing very fast.”

The results are in line with a pair of analyses released earlier this year by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the International Energy Agency, which show the rate of global emissions growth slowing significantly in 2014.

 

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The Santa Rally is due to happen very soon now.

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Will Santa Claus(e) appear on Wall St this year? Seasonals say yes.

Tuesday, December 08, 2015

"Magical Thinking": Will Staying Below 2C Save the Earth?

The politicians love to think that staying below at 2°C rise in average global temperatures over the years 1800-present will somehow “save the planet.” If you believe that, you have yet to realize politicians lie with the regularity of sunrise.

538 points out why The 2-Degree Warming Limit Is Arbitrary And Beside The Point:

Two degrees became the default goal almost by happenstance. The number originated with Yale economist William Nordhaus, who back in the 1970s published a paper suggesting that a rise in global temperature of more than 2 degrees would represent temperatures hardly seen over the past several hundred thousand years. Nordhaus’s number was based on preliminary intuition, though climate data has confirmed that during the past 100,000 years, global mean temperatures have rarely, if ever, reached much higher than 2 C above those around 1800.

Two degrees isn’t a magic number that will somehow hold catastrophe at bay. We have already nearly arrived at a 1-degree temperature rise, and as Reto Knutti and his colleagues argue in this week’s Nature Geoscience, the 2-degree goal is not a scientific one. Although the 2-degree limit is often referred to as a “guardrail,” Knutti told me, “there’s no scientific research to show that 2 degrees of warming is safe.” And there’s a reason for that — science alone can’t determine what’s an unacceptable level of danger.

The best analogy for this, he said, is speed limits on roads. “You could quantify the risk of dying at certain speeds, but even if you could quantify that perfectly, it would still not tell us what speed limit is appropriate — that’s a judgment call,” he said. Set a universal speed limit of 30 mph, and the roads are safer. But now it takes a long time to get places. On the other hand, if the speed limit is set very high, people can get to their destinations faster — but the roads become more dangerous. Science alone can’t determine the right middle ground between these two extremes.

The 2-degree limit is similarly a compromise between costs, benefits and risks. Set the warming limit too high, and it may not inspire the appropriate urgency. Set it too low, and it may be so strict that countries don’t sign on to the agreement because they’re afraid their economies will become too stunted if they have to stop using fuels that produce emissions. Given the social, political, and economic factors at play, science can’t provide a one-size-fits-all solution. Climate change affects regions and countries differently, and it’s difficult to precisely predict at which temperatures and greenhouse gas emission levels climate change will become unbearable. Residents of the Persian Gulf region may cry uncle sooner than those living in northern climates, and island states will feel the change before landlocked countries.

Determining where to draw the line requires judgment calls as well as science. It’s a question of priorities. For instance, Knutti said, the world could ask itself, “Do you care or not if the polar bear goes extinct?” There are reasons polar bears might matter: They’re icons of the fight against global warming, and their extinction might be a harbinger of a cascade of habitat changes that could ripple down the food chain. But on the other hand, setting a temperature limit to save the polar bear may not allow for a developing country to hit its GDP target. Which matters more to the world at large?

There’s not always agreement about what the priorities should be, obviously. Developed nations made their wealth with fossil fuels, and they aren’t going to give them up if that would require relinquishing the lifestyles they’ve become accustomed to. Even staunch environmentalists tend to go green only as long as it’s convenient.

Meanwhile, poor countries would like to develop their economies and lift their standards of living. But doing so without the fossil fuels that got the rest of the world there is an expensive challenge, especially as they face more extreme weather events because of climate change.

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Where is Santa Claus(e) this year? Will the 'bots be good elves and make put options disappear into expiration?

Monday, December 07, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. If we're to have a Santa Rally this year, we need a buy signal in a key broad market instrument soon.

Sunday, December 06, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. #WeekendAnalysis to follow shortly. Seasonal uptrend in equities persists.

Saturday, December 05, 2015

Fighting Socialism: Monopoly Utilities Want To Kill Solar

Conservative Republicans have gotten the message: Monopoly utilities want to extinguish the independent rooftop solar market in America to protect their socialist control of how we get our electricity.

They have engaged in class warfare and tried to sabotage net metering, a billing method that gives individual homeowners fair credit for power produced on their own rooftops. They would like to deny us Americans energy choice and maintain their monopoly status.

Chairman of Don't Kill Solar, Barry Goldwater, Jr writes:

As a son of Arizona, I know we have no greater resource than the sun. Republicans want the freedom to make the best choice and the competition to drive down rates.That choice may mean they save money, and with solar that is the case. Solar companies have a track record of aggressively reducing costs in America. We can't let solar energy — and all its advantages and benefits it provides us — be pushed aside by monopolies wanting to limit energy choice. That's not the conservative way and it's not the American way.

Friday, December 04, 2015

"We will lose half our coastal cities": Jim Hansen

The COP21 Climate Talks in Paris aim to limit global warming to 2°C this century, but James Hansen, who sounded the warming warning way back in 1988 says:

What I am hearing is that the heads of state are planning to clap each other on the back and say this is a very successful conference. If that is what happens, we are screwing the next generation, because we are doing the same as before.

[A rise of ] 2C is definitely dangerous. We are at the point now where temperatures are hitting the 1C mark and are are on a path above 1C. Even if we reduce emissions 6% a year we will still get 1C.

Instead we hear the same old thing as Kyoto [in 1997]. We are asking each country to cap emissions, or reduce emissions. In science when you do a well conducted experiment you expect to get the same result. So why are we talking about doing the same again? This is half-arsed and half-baked.

Hansen, who was speaking at a climate summit for the first time, said the planet was out of energy balance. “There is more warming in the pipeline that will take us into real danger. We are on the edge of handing our children a climate system that is out of control, and that could mean losing half our coastal cities.”

Thursday, December 03, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big move in bonds was tipped here first.

Elon Musk Can Be Wrong

Rockstar entrepreneur Elon Musk is right most of the time. But, he can certainly be wrong. We've written before that he's wrong about Lithium-ion battery technology as he's betting the future of Tesla on that obsolete technology. We will be proven correct in the long run and Musk may very well snap to the facts. The inventor of Lithium-ion battery technology agrees with us, by the way.

Today, we find that Musk thinks that we can only solve the Climate Change problem with a Carbon Tax. Well, there's another thing Musk is wrong about. What will solve the problem is technology. Strangely enough, we agree with Bill Gates on this point. We read in Fortune that:

As world leaders and policymakers continue climate negotiations in Paris, serial entrepreneur Elon Musk appealed to a younger, seemingly less powerful group to help prevent global warming.

His message: only a carbon tax—not innovation, conservation, or renewable energy—will accelerate the transition from carbon-producing fossil fuels to sustainable energy.

“I think you have tremendous power—you have the power to make change,” Musk told students during a conference at the Sorbonne in Paris, just a 30-minute drive from the 2015 U.N. Climate Change Conference, where negotiations are underway to pass an international treaty that would cut emissions enough to prevent the world’s temperature from rising 2 degrees Celsius.

Musk, who has pushed for a carbon tax before, said the tax should be revenue neutral and phased in over a period of years. A revenue neutral tax means governments would still receive the same amount of money despite a change in the tax code. Under Musk’s scenario, taxes would be weighted heavily on carbon, and reduced in other areas. This approach already occurs, Musk said, citing how taxes are higher on cigarettes and alcohol than fruits and vegetables.

Musk encouraged students to press politicians to take action on climate change because “governments respond to popular pressure.”

Eventually, the world will run out of carbon to mine and burn, and will have to move to sustainable energy, Musk predicted at the conference. A hidden subsidy that benefits all carbon-producing activity—about $5.3 trillion annually, according to the IMF—is delaying that transition, he said.

The net result of this “untaxed negative externality” is 35 gigatonnes of carbon per year being emitted into the atmosphere—additional carbon that Musk described as the “turd in the punch bowl.”

Musk, who is chief executive of all-electric automaker Tesla Motors and aerospace manufacturer SpaceX, said governments, which set how companies are rewarded financially, must send a clear message.

“The fundamental problem is the rules today incent people to create carbon; this is madness,” Musk said. “So what can you do? Whenever you have the opportunity, talk to your politicians, ask them to enact a carbon tax.” Musk also encouraged the audience to talk to their friends about it and to “fight the propaganda from the carbon industry,” which he compared to the tobacco industry’s often spurious strategies to convince consumers smoking is safe.

This idea that government has to coerce the public into doing the right thing is where conservatives lose patience with environmentalists. We say let the market decide which is the best course of action. Let the technology force the outcome. And, we think the market is going to tell the fossil fuel industry to keep their polluting fuel in the ground. That's because we have an unlimited supply of clean green fuel for our energy coming from 93 million miles in the sky. We can take this free energy and store it in advanced batteries and have it available at any time in the future. We can create electric transportation and store that solar energy to put to use in transporting goods from place to place on the surface of this planet—and in the air as well. It's called solar+storage and it's now cheaper than burning polluting fossil fuel in many parts of the planet. Let the market decide, not government. Tell politicians to keep their greedy hands off the economy. You know that if the politicians pass a tax, they'll find a way to funnel some of those funds into the hands of their sponsors in industry. The public will pay higher taxes and receive no benefits from the tax while some gets funneled into corporate coffers that finds its way back into politicians' pockets.

Wednesday, December 02, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Today was a significant change-in-trend day. We're adding significant indicators to our daily chart rotation.

Getting Rid of Fossil Fuel Before It's Too Late

The Breakthrough Energy Coalition aims to spur the transition away from fossil fuels to sustainable (and non-polluting energy) via private-public partnerships. See Introducing the Breakthrough Energy Coalition:

THE WORLD NEEDS WIDELY AVAILABLE ENERGY that is reliable, affordable and does not produce carbon. The only way to accomplish that goal is by developing new tools to power the world. That innovation will result from a dramatically scaled up public research pipeline linked to truly patient, flexible investments committed to developing the technologies that will create a new energy mix. The Breakthrough Energy Coalition is working together with a growing group of visionary countries who are significantly increasing their public research pipeline through the Mission Innovation initiative to make that future a reality.

The real problem is in commercializing the sustainable energy breakthroughs we already have. Consequently, this part of the initiative will end up being far more important:

Government research, however, is not enough. We must also add the skills and resources of leading investors with experience in driving innovation from the lab to the marketplace. The private sector knows how to build companies, evaluate the potential for success, and take the risks that lead to taking innovative ideas and bringing them to the world. But in the current business environment, the risk-reward balance for early-stage investing in potentially transformative energy systems is unlikely to meet the market tests of traditional angel or VC investors – not until the underlying economics of the energy sector shift further towards clean energy. Experience indicates that even the most promising ideas face daunting commercialization challenges and a nearly impassable Valley of Death between promising concept and viable product, which neither government funding nor conventional private investment can bridge. This collective failure can be addressed, in part, by a dramatically scaled-up public research pipeline, linked to a different kind of private investor with a long term commitment to new technologies who is willing to put truly patient flexible risk capital to work. These investors will certainly be motivated partly by the possibility of making big returns over the long-term, but also by the criticality of an energy transition. Success will provide the economic proof points necessary for the mainstream market-driven clean energy economy required for our planetary future.

We are committed to doing our part and filling this capital need by coming together in a new coalition. We will form a network of private capital committed to building a structure that will allow informed decisions to help accelerate the change to the advanced energy future our planet needs. Success requires a partnership of increased government research, with a transparent and workable structure to objectively evaluate those projects, and committed private-sector investors willing to support the innovative ideas that come out of the public research pipeline.

  • Invest Early

    The most transformative ideas are emerging out of research institutions and the great capital gap is in getting these ideas out of the lab and on the path to commercialization. We’ll take a flexible approach to early stage, providing seed, angel and Series A investments, with the expectation that once these investments are de-risked, traditional commercial capital will invest in the later stages.

  • Invest Broadly

    We don’t know where the best ideas will come from to transition the world to a near zero-emissions energy future, so we will invest across a number of sectors:

    • a. Electricity generation and storage;

    • b. Transportation;

    • c. Industrial use;

    • d. Agriculture; and

    • e. Energy system efficiency

  • Invest Boldly

    We are looking for outliers both in developing novel technologies AND in innovations which enable current technologies to be dramatically more efficient, scalable, or cheaper. Whether core or enabling technology, the key differentiating factor must be a credible pathway to rapid scaling – providing affordable energy to the greatest number of people without overburdening essential resources including land use.

  • Invest Wisely

    One of the challenges to effective financing in this area is a lack of depth in terms of technical review and analysis of underlying science and technology to guide investment decisions. To tackle this, we will work with a coalition of the world’s best minds, in partnership with leading public and private institutions, to guide investment decision-making.

  • Invest Together

    Because the foundation of these innovations will likely come through government research pipelines, we will focus our investments on those countries that have committed to increase the size of those pipelines by participating in the international initiative known as Mission Innovation. Those countries are making a serious commitment to using smart government spending to increase the rate of innovation in their domestic innovation sector while helping the world find solutions to the serious problems created by climate change, high costs of power, and energy price volatility.

Over the next year, we will work together to develop effective and creative mechanisms to analyze potential investments coming out of the research pipeline, create investment vehicles to facilitate those investments, and expand the community of investors who join us in this endeavor.

Gates speaks to the problems we face:

Tuesday, December 01, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds rallied and stocks followed to the upside. Is a Change-in-Trend at hand in either market?

Monday, November 30, 2015

Sunday, November 29, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A choppy week ahead, but seasonals point up in most indices.

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and open for a half-day session on Friday.

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds remain the favorite flight-to-quality market.

Monday, November 23, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The leading index in equities may be close to a significant signal now.

Global Climate March, 29 November 2015



On the eve of the most important global climate meeting of our lifetime, hundreds of thousands are hitting the streets worldwide, with love and hope, to show leaders how to lead, and fight for a beautiful, equitable, post-fossil fuel 100% clean energy future. Find your march here: http://globalclimatemarch.org

Sunday, November 22, 2015

Last Week's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Later, we'll have the #WeekendAnalysis PDF updated for subscribers.

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Video: Elon Musk's Top 10 Rules For Success

Elon Musk Video: How I Became the Iron Man


"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Elon Musk, the entrepreneur who helped create PayPal, built America's first viable fully electric car company, started the nation's biggest solar energy supplier, and may make commercial space travel a reality in our lifetime. (Source: Bloomberg)

Bloomberg Television offers extensive coverage and analysis of international business news and stories of global importance. It is available in more than 310 million households worldwide and reaches the most affluent and influential viewers in terms of household income, asset value and education levels. With production hubs in London, New York and Hong Kong, the network provides 24-hour continuous coverage of the people, companies and ideas that move the markets.

Thursday, November 19, 2015

Video: Big Polluters Call the "Fixer"


Jeff Goldblum is The Fixer — the guy Big Polluters call to clean up their mess. Only they might not like his advice.

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big picture should make any long term investor quite nervous here.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The dead rat bounce continues in the stock market with a buy signal this morning.

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is the "Dead Rat Bounce" over in equities?

Monday, November 16, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stock rally today was our expectation. We have a name for it: Dead Rat Bounce.

Sunday, November 15, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Equities: due for a bounce. Bonds: due for a pullback.

Saturday, November 14, 2015

How Could Paris Climate Talks Ratchet Up To Success?

How could the UN climate talks in Paris next month ratchet up the national plans (INDCs) and succeed in limiting global warming? Drew Jones of Climate Interactive presents scenarios from the C-ROADS simulation and explores how far these contributions get us, and what more is needed to keep warming to within 2° Celsius (3.6°F) of temperature change above pre-industrial levels.

The C-ROADS simulation, which created the scenarios, is available for download along with all assumptions and equations at climateinteractive.org.

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Internals continue to collapse in the stock market. Deja vu all over again?

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Why the topping process isn't finished quite yet

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Stocks find a cycle low while bonds build "cause" to rally.

Monday, November 09, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The market misunderstood the implications of the Employment Report. The Fed isn't raising rates.

Jobs Report Misinterpreted

Last week, the government reported that 271,000 new jobs were created in the month of October, much to the surprise of markets. Stocks and bonds tumbled on the belief that this would give the Fed permission to raise interest rates to slow an overheating economy.

Apparently, no one realized that the Employment Report is one of the most lagging indicators of the economy. The good news on jobs reflects the economy as it was several months ago. It's not unusual to see a high number of new jobs being reported just before the economy dips into recession. Other data series which are more up-to-date show the economy in a position which has led to recession shortly thereafter. That's not to say they are saying we're about to enter recession. But, they are saying that the Fed had better not take the most lagging indicator into consideration when hiking interest rates.

With corporate earnings sliding, many corporations are over-indebted today due to borrowing money to buy back their shares and artificially boost earnings. The JNK ETF reflects a strong downtrend that is a forecast of a falling economy. The last time the Fed hiked rates in 2007 they did so in a declining economy and that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Will they do it again?

Well, when you consider that most of the Fed members are lawyers and not economists, it doesn't look good for the economy or the country.

Is Japan's Wicked Winter Almost Over?

Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun

By Elliott Wave International

The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."

Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.

Take a look at this chart:

Japan's economy has gone through a very long winter. The nation has experienced deflation for most of the past 25 years.

Here's a September 25 Financial Times headline:

Japan falls back into deflation for first time since 2013

But a change of seasons may be closer than many observers realize. Review this chart and commentary excerpted from a Special Report by Mark Galasiewski in the October issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Global Market Perspective:

Let's see how that [Kondratieff] template has applied to Japan since the low in Japanese interest rates in 1946.

This chart shows three markers of the Japanese economy. At the top is the inflation-adjusted TOPIX. In the middle is the chart of 10-year JGB yields, showing the 1946 low at 3.69% and the 1961 high near 15%, followed by the long five-wave decline through to the present. At the bottom is the year-over-year percentage change in Japan's GDP.

... Japan's Spring lasted from the end of the Pacific War to the late 1950s. ... Japan's Summer extended from the late 1950s to the early 1980s. Japan's so-called bubble economy of the late 1980s and early 1990s was its Autumn. ... Finally, Japan's Winter lasted more than 20 years.

We conclude from the data that Japan is in the process of ending a Kondratieff Winter and is beginning a Kondratieff Spring ... .

Is this sleeping giant ready to offer opportunities for investors?

You can learn now in a new free report from Elliott Wave International, 3 Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks.

You'll get Galasiewski's Special Section on Japan, as presented to Elliott Wave International subscribers in Global Market Perspective.

Access your free report now >>


Sunday, November 08, 2015

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. What leading smallcap index sports a PE Ratio of 188 now?

Friday, November 06, 2015

Carbon Bubble: Sleepwalking Into the Next Crisis

Jules Peck summarizes last week's Guildhall meeting in the city of London discussing climate change in From Business as Usual to Business as Urgent -- City Signs Up for One Way Ticket to the Low Carbon Economy:
A major theme running throughout the event was that of stranded carbon assets, a concept that many leading figures have come out in support of. For example Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England has said that the "vast majority of reserves are unburnable" if global temperature rises are to be limited to below 2C and that this represents "potentially huge losses" to asset managers. Because of this the Bank of England and the G20 are both now examining the risk this issue poses to the global economy.

Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said:

In a phrase that was echoed by other speakers Figueres said that "we are not in a world of business as usual, we're in a world of business as urgent" and argued that, while a climate change deal to be agreed in Paris in December will not come up with a global carbon price, this was not relevant because "We already have a strong carbon price signal" in many jurisdictions around the world, with almost 80% of global emissions under some sort of carbon pricing now.
Figeures made it clear that the Paris deal will sketch out a roadmap to a net-zero emission economy in which most reserves booked by fossil fuel companies will not be able to be burnt and will therefore become stranded assets. But she warned that, despite this, the energy industry is still banking on ever-rising demand for its products as if nothing has changed. For Figueres, "these [projections] are pure fiction".

A shift out of carbon assets is rapidly underway:

From other panel discussions it became clear that many investors are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance commented that talk of such litigation risks "is setting off alarm bells that there could be long tail risks" for those not incorporating such issues into their analysis and that "Paris gives us all a non-exchangeable, one-way ticket to a low-carbon economy."
Karmali said that because of this, and the increased risks associated with carbon heavy assets, his bank has now accelerated its shift out of coal stocks to "a very low level" and that Bank of America now have three times the exposure to renewables as they do to coal. Underlining how significant this shift is, he described this as "remarkable for a conservative institution like ourselves".
Mark Lewis of Barclays shook the audience with a cautionary tale that ten years ago, the utility sector ignored the signs of the coming tsunami of renewables and that those utilities lost 60-80% of their value. He also pointed out that sell side analysts completely misread the way the market would shift on renewables. He warned that translating what comes out of the Paris talks for financial analysts will not be straight forward and it will need their clients to be calling for more incorporation of carbon risk in asset mangers investments for this issue to become of focus for most mainstream financial analysis.
Echoing what Figueres had said, Lewis underlined that a huge market shift away from high carbon assets is underway, whether or not analysts are always recognising this, and quoted the CEO of energy company ENEL that "there is a huge tide flowing, you can decide in which direction to swim but the flow is not in your control and nor is the direction it is flowing."
However, despite some city institutions being more and more engaged with these issues, Helena Morrissey, CEO of Newton and chairman of Investment Management Association, warned that the impact of climate policy is still not high enough on agenda of most investment companies and that there is a need for an end to silos and a shift to integrated investing in which climate change becomes fully part of the mainstream way of doing thing for city institutions.
Morrissey warned her peers that "We slept walked into the financial crisis and we have no excuse for sleepwalking into a climate crisis" and called for more sense of urgency from the investment community who should stop delaying tough decisions for lack of a clear enough roadmap from politicians. She also called for more pressure from clients and others to encourage bodies like the Investment Association to take carbon risk more seriously.
Anthony Hobley of Carbon Tracker echoed this idea of sleepwalking into crisis saying that the old energy order is living on borrowed time and compared what is happening today with the inevitable shift away from carbon to the decline of Britain's canals in the mid-19th century when railways burst onto the scene and drove down cargo tolls, destroying the business model.
Giving Kodak and Blockbuster as more recent examples, Hobley pointed out that technology takes no prisoners and to a long graveyard of industries and companies that stuck doggedly to business as usual at key inflexion points and said that "Incumbents invariably fail to see it coming."
Hobley underlined what other speakers had said in terms of the message expected to come from the December Paris climate summit saying that "Most international laws or treaties are not about breaking new ground. They are about codifying what the major powers are doing anyway. The success of Paris will be in codifying what is already happening. For incumbents and for you as investors it will open a window for you to see the transition that is already taking place. It will give the incumbents an opportunity to get on the train before it departs the station."

Thursday, November 05, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The stock market continues to collapse on the inside. It's smaller than it looks from the outside.

Carbon Bubble End Game: TBTF Redux

It's highly likely that fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil will not be allowed, either by the free market or government fiat, to extract all of their reserves in the ground. That means the Carbon Bubble will be popped, sooner or later, and asset prices of fossil fuel companies have a strong future downtrend to contend with.

Since Exxon has done the most research on the subject of Climate Change by their own admission, you would think they had a plan: the handwriting is on the wall. So far, the only part of the plan we've seen them implement is funding climate change deniers. That hasn't worked, obviously. What exactly is their plan?

Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, appeared on Fox Business yesterday, but gave no hint that he even understood the basics of the changes that are already in the pipeline. When asked about the effect of self-driving cars, he answered that it would increase the demand for gasoline because more cars would be sold. That answer shows that he hasn't thought the process through at all. When driverless cars are sold, they are most likely going to be electric cars, not gas-guzzlers, and that will reduce demand for internal combustion cars.

Electric cars have so many advantages over fossil fuel cars that the economics of electrics will trounce fossil fuels. They have far fewer moving parts, they will be much more economical to operate and batteries will drop sharply in the near future. That means driverless cars will be cheaper to own and operate than fossil fuel cars.

This one point reveals that the head of ExxonMobil has no plans on how to deal with the bursting of the Carbon Bubble. If you had to make out a list of the Too Big To Fail companies, ExxonMobil would surely be near the top of the list. That means that when ExxonMobil goes down in flames, it will be the taxpayers who are called on to bail them out of their misery. Just like General Motors in 2008 in fact. That's not only a shame, it's a disgrace for the public, which have been misled and lied to by the fossil fuel companies for several decades.

Bill McKibben: Carbon Bubble Makes Housing Bubble Look Small

Bill McKibben, author of "The End of Nature" and head of 350.org, talks about efforts to bring awareness to climate change and global warming. He speaks with Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)

Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. How will the upward wedge on the SPX break? Two possibilities present themselves.

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Tom Mahoney's Panic Scale links today's market to 1929 and the 2010 Flash Crash.

Monday, November 02, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Investors seem never to learn the lessons of history...even recent history.

Sunday, November 01, 2015

Join the Global Apollo Program

Leading scientists, business figures, academics and MPs have called on world leaders to adopt the Global Apollo Program (GAP) by the time of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, in December 2015.
The GAP plan for internationally coordinated RD&D (research, development and demonstration) into renewable energy technology aims to make renewable energy cheaper than fossil fuels.
This can be achieved by increasing governments spending on research to $15bn a year for the next 10 years.
That compares to almost $100 billion currently invested in defence R&D globally each year.
For more information visit www.globalapolloprogram.org or follow us on Twitter @global_apollo.

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Big changes are coming this week.

The Global Apollo Program

Climate change is the greatest threat to global stability and prosperity. By 2035 the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will exceed the critical level consistent with a temperature rise of less than 2˚C.

There is no shortage of energy on earth. The sun delivers 5000 times more power to the surface of the earth than humanity needs. The cost of renewables has been falling. But not fast enough. Renewable energy gets less than 2% of the world’s publicly funded RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration).

The Global Apollo Program’s aim is to accelerate the decarbonisation of the world economy through more rapid technical progress, achieved through an internationally-coordinated program of research and development over a 10-year period.

The Program will focus on several key areas: generation from renewables, electricity storage, grid management, the electrification of transport, and the use of hydrogen.

The results of all research will be made public but patentable intellectual property will be protected and remain with those who made the discoveries.

This strategy is about making energy cheaper and cleaner. It is an optimistic, pro-growth, pro-technology, pro-business solution.

This is the greatest scientific challenge in the world today but it is solvable. We can create a world powered by limitless clean energy.

Official Website: The Global Apollo Program To Combat Climate Change

Saturday, October 31, 2015

COP21: Political support growing for global clean energy R&D push, says UK climate envoy

The upcoming Paris Climate Conference (COP21) is just less than a month away. And, while we've seen little progress in reaching even the 2°C maximum global warming temperature boundary—already about 0.5°C too high to avoid serious climate problems—some optimism about the problem is being heard that have changed the views of many political and business leaders.

That change is a swerve away from regarding climate change mitigation as a retardation of growth to one where climate change represents a business opportunity. Ben Willis reports on one aspect of that change of heart in OP21: Political support growing for global clean energy R&D push, says UK climate envoy:

The UK government's special representative on climate change has spoken of his optimism that plans for a concerted international push on clean energy research will be given additional impetus by the climate talks in Paris in December.
Speaking to PV Tech, Sir David King, one of the co-promoters of a so-called "Global Apollo Programme" on clean energy R&D, said he believed the plan was gaining political traction and would be accelerated in the run-up to COP21 at the end of the year.
Launched in June, the Apollo programme set out plans for a 10-year, US$150 billion international R&D initiative aimed at making clean energy cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide by 2025.
The programme boasts an impressive list of co-authors, including the UK's former cabinet secretary Gus O'Donnell, the London School of Economics' climate economist Nicholas Stern and the former President of the Royal Society Martin Rees. It has also gained the backing of host of luminaries including the naturalist Sir David Attenborough and Professor Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University.
Sir David, the UK's former chief scientific advisor and now the UK foreign secretary's special representative on climate change, told PV Tech the initiative was now also coming to the attention of energy ministers in the G7 group of industrialised countries and beyond, referring to a communiqué issued after a G7 meeting in June, in which leaders committed to decarbonising the global economy this century. "The second part of the statement was a major thrust in R&D demonstration in renewable energy technology so that we can roll out cheap energy around the world," he said. "So that's got the blessing of the G7 heads of government — they've asked for their energy ministers to report back to the next meeting of the G7, which will be next year... So it's rolling. And it's rolling in another sense because of Paris. And so there's a useful means of accelerating the process because everyone's trying to get things in before Paris."
Sir David added: "It's already with the right people — it's got the attention of the heads of government; that was the whole point of taking it through the G7. I think that all I can say at this stage is watch out for announcements. The IEA [International Energy Agency] has an energy ministerial meeting coming up in November, there's a G20 meeting in late November; these are all opportunities for heads of government and ministers of energy to develop the elements of the programme into something before Paris."
Sir David has already publicly stated his belief that solar offers perhaps the most realistic solution to the climate change problem.
In the interview with PV Tech, he added that storage technology should be a key beneficiary of the proposed R&D programme as it has not enjoyed the same support as PV from public subsidies. "The sun doesn't shine anywhere in the world at night, so energy storage and smart grids have become a part of rolling out base-load electricity from that source. And energy storage and smart grids got no benefits from feed-in tariffs," he said.
Asked what he felt would happen at the COP21 talks, Sir David said he believed a deal would be reached, but that issues such as the flow of funds from the developed to developing worlds to fund climate mitigation and adaptation activities would be a big issue for negotiators to overcome.
Concluding, Sir David said the global shift to clean energy was not a possibility but a necessity: "It's going to happen — we have to do it. So when the G7 heads of government announced they are going to decarbonise the world's economy by the end of the century, they mean it. And I believe we have, frankly, no option."

For the complete interview, click here.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds broke a key trendline, but remain near a seasonal low in price.

Carbon Bubble: Prince Charles Weighs In

The Prince of Wales weighed in on the Carbon Bubble yesterday in a video address to leading figures from international finance in London, just weeks before the Paris climate talks begin.

Prince Charles said that climate change is an increasing source of risk to the finance community. He said that business leaders should divest from a fossil fuel industry increasingly on the skids:

There are therefore two factors to consider: firstly, whether to divest from sectors, especially those directly involved in fossil fuels, which will be severely impacted by any agreement to limit global temperatures to a two-degree rise. Secondly, whether to invest in sectors which support the low carbon economy and are therefore better positioned in terms of risk and opportunities.

Some investors, such as philanthropic trusts and foundations, will also have to consider whether continuing to invest in high carbon assets represents a significant conflict to their overall mission and objectives.

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A market that's in the home stretch and it's key.

Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation

Weakest economic recovery in seven decades gets weaker
By Elliott Wave International

Most people extrapolate present trends into the future. But yesterday's trend can look like day vs. night when tomorrow arrives.

Almost no one expected deflation when the December 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist said:

Inflation has raged, but deflation is next.

What followed was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the weakest economic recovery since World War II.

The American economy remains weak. Growth is at the lowest level in more than three decades. ... Wages have been rising at the slowest pace since the 1980s. ... This is the weakest recovery since World War II ... . (U.S. News & World Report, August 23)

A co-founder of AOL and the chairman of Quicken Loans just graded the U.S. economy: They scored its performance near the bottom of the class.

Grading the U.S. economy, the rosiest scores from two billionaires on [October 23] would average about 68, equal to a D+ on a report card. (CNBC, October 23)

Deflationary pressures are increasingly evident.

U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1% in August. Producer prices have been even weaker. The nation's PPI fell 2.9% in August, and it's declined every month since December 2014.

These charts are from our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby:

The graphs show several key economic measures that reflect years of broad-based distress, despite historic monetary and fiscal stimulus.

The chart above of real mean and median U.S. personal income shows another long-term reversal that is hitting most Americans in their pocketbook. While the mean measure shows, on average, that personal income peaked with the real estate boom in 2006, the median measure shows that half of all U.S. citizens are earning less money in real terms than they were in 2000. The five-wave form of the rise in mean income is further Elliott wave evidence that the decline is about to accelerate.

Our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said, "Deflation is just getting started." The October Financial Forecast provided a reminder of that warning and added that deflation "is already deeply entrenched in many flagship quarters of the global economy."

Get the full picture of what we see as a worldwide deflationary trend in our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby.

Here's what you will learn:

  • Currency devaluation's role in the developing global crisis
  • How the self-reinforcing aspect of deflation is already apparent in commodities trading
  • Why the top 1% of earners are in for a rude awakening
  • How Europe's biggest economies are screeching to a halt
  • The hair-raising future for U.S. stocks

Just recall how swiftly the 2007-2009 financial crisis unfolded. We anticipate that the next global financial crisis could be even more sudden and severe.

Prepare now with our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby. CLICK TO CONTINUE READING >>


This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Dispatch: U.S. On the Precipice of Deflation. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Bursting the Carbon Bubble: Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change:
Oil, gas and coal companies face the mounting risk of legal damages for alleged climate abuse as global leaders signal an end to business-as-usual and draw up sweeping plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Bank of America has warned.
Investors in the City are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exhorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. "It is setting off alarm bells that there could be these long tail risks," said Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance.

Fossil fuel companies have known for decades of the risk that their underground reserves were being overvalued.

Now, it seems the movement to keep those resources in the ground is unstoppable.

While the exact contours are still unclear, Paris is likely to sketch a way towards zero net emissions later this century. It implies that most fossil fuel reserves booked by major oil, gas and coal companies can never be burned.
A deal would also send a moral signal with legal ramifications. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank England, warned last month that by those who had suffered losses from climate change may try to bring claims on third-party liability insurance.
He specifically mentioned the parallel of asbestos claims in US courts, which have mounted over the years to $85bn and devastated some Lloyd's syndicates.
Mr Carney said it would be "premature to draw too close an analogy with climate risks" and acknowledged that previous carbon lawsuits have failed, but he warned that the risk is "significant, uncertain and non-linear". The UN has already floated ideas on compensation.

This is a far bigger problem for the fossil fuel companies than asbestos and tobacco ever were.

It's the bursting of the biggest financial bubble in history, the bursting of the Carbon Bubble.

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Another 162 MW Of Solar Approved For Austin, Texas

Austin, Texas just might become the most solar powered city in America. About two weeks ago, it approved the development of a new round of 288 MW of solar power projects. Even more recently, it approved an additional 162 MW, bringing the total to 450 MW, and that is just for new projects. If these new…

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The most extended the blue chips have been versus the broad market is right now.

Monday, October 26, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Our best indicator says stocks are retesting a high from late 2014 right now.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. As risk/reward shifts, it's getting to be time to change.

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A stronger dollar is a headwind for US company earnings.

Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Big reversal today could upset some portfolios if they aren't using stop orders.

Bursting the Carbon Bubble: 90 Companies

The Carbon Bubble came about because much of the fossil fuels in the ground can never be burned because doing so would doom our civilization. Yet, the stock market valuation of public fossil fuel companies reflect that investors think that all fossil fuels can be ultimately extracted and burned. Thus, we have yet another stock market bubble in the stocks of fossil fuel companies that will crater at some point in the future.

Kenny Ausubel writes in Epic Change -- Part 1:

In 1979 Exxon intern Steve Knisely was tasked with analyzing how global warming might affect future fuel use. Knisely projected that by 2010 there would be 400ppm of CO₂ in the atmosphere and "noticeable temperature changes." He foresaw the fossil fuel industry might need to leave 80% of its recoverable reserves in the ground.
By 1981 Exxon scientists and researchers had concluded that rising CO₂ levels could create catastrophic impacts within the first half of the 21st century. Yet starting in 1989, the same year as the Exxon Valdez spill, the company began arguing that the uncertainty inherent in computer models makes them useless for important policy decisions.
Exxon knowingly ramped up the fossil fuel industry despite the calamitous probabilities. Call it racket science. This is criminal behavior on the scale of a psychopathic James Bond cartoon villain.
In 2013, Richard Heede, a scientist at the Climate Accountability Institute, gathered a group of lawyers. He showed them that nearly 2/3 of the world's CO₂ and methane emissions dating back to the birth of the industrial era were the responsibility of just 90 companies.
The resulting lawsuits against these "carbon majors" are radical because they shift the culpability from developed countries to corporations. The lawsuits assign blame and name names. Big Carbon is taking it very seriously because a federal appeals court found that US cities and individuals suffering economic and other damages have standing to sue under the National Environmental Policy Act. The companies are also vulnerable to fraud and civil conspiracy charges for funding climate-deniers while internally acknowledging the science.
But isn't it time for a sentence of corporate death — capital punishment for crimes of capital?

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Put replenishment season promises options sellers will be shorting futures.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Indicators are pointing toward reversals in two key markets.

Sunday, October 18, 2015

Kent Moors: Why 2015 Is the Year of the Battery, and How You Can Profit From It

Kent Moors covers the energy field and writes in Why 2015 Is the Year of the Battery, and How You Can Profit From It:
Renewable power is on the rise. U.S. wind power capacity grew by 8.3% in 2014, and total renewable electric power will grow by 5.5% in 2016.
Utility-scale solar power capacity alone is expected to increase by 100% over 2015 and 2016. And in Europe, renewable power generation increased by 84% from 2003 to 2013.
But the great stumbling block for solar energy, as well as wind power and electric vehicles, has always been storage. The sun doesn't always shine, and the wind doesn't always blow. And we don't always need power when they do.
Batteries can bridge this gap by storing renewable power for when its needed, but conventional batteries, even the most high-tech ones, are inefficient and expensive, and don't last more than a few years.
But in 2015, that's all changing.
Recently, researchers at Ohio State University announced a breakthrough battery that's 20% more efficient and 25% cheaper than anything else on the market.
That's just one of the battery breakthroughs that could transform the energy industry and create some of the most exciting opportunities I've seen.
Because whoever figures out the "holy grail" of energy storage is going to make an absolute fortune, and not just in the energy industry. The implications are far-reaching across almost every industry you can imagine (and some you can't)....(more)

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Exciting times are ahead for both stocks and bonds.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Fossil Fuels: A Risky Business

The fossil fuel industry is inflating a 'carbon bubble’ based on risky demand & price assumptions.

The Fossil Fuel Stock Market Bubble

Despite the massive loss in value of fossil fuel companies like Chevron and Exxon Mobil over the last 14 months, these stocks are still in bubble valuation territory. Many are headed for eventual bankruptcy. Thus there is a fossil fuel stock market bubble.

This is because true costs of carbon dioxide in intensifying global warming are not taken into account in a company's stock market valuation. Currently the price of fossil fuels companies shares is calculated under the assumption that all fossil fuel reserves will be consumed. An estimate made by Citi puts the loss in value of the fossil fuel companies due to the impact of the growing renewables industry at $100 trillion. According to the UK's Committee on Climate Change, overvaluing companies that produce fossil fuels and greenhouse gases poses a serious threat to the economy. The committee warned the British government and Bank of England of the risks of the carbon bubble in 2014.

The stranding of carbon assets will come about because of the free market. Of course, many fossil fuel companies will lobby government to avoid this outcome, but that's a rear guard action which will ultimate fail to prevent fossil fuels from being phased out. Already, many renewable sources of energy, such as wind and solar, are more economical than fossil fuels. In 2014, for the first time, wind and solar were cheaper than coal and gas in the USA, Australia and China. Switching to electricity based transportation like electrical vehicles from fossil fuel based transportation will reduce and eliminate the demand for fossil fuels, particularly petroleum.

Once the investment world realizes that fossil fuels are becoming obselete, the value of those companies will trend toward zero. Thus, those who are buying those stocks with the expectation that fossil fuels will rebound as they have in the past are subjecting themselves to severe financial risk.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bearish investors big put premiums to a new all-time high despite today's rally.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Bonds are sending a big message about the state of the economy.

Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Is there life left in the rally? Yes, but only very short term.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The highest reading in history occured today in the SKEW Index.

Paul Craig Roberts: Obama Has Come To His Senses

Paul Craig Roberts recognizes Obama has come to his senses:

Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge and others are misinterpreting Steve Kroft’s interview with President Obama. They see weakness and confusion in Obama’s responses and conclude that Kroft shredded Obama.

What I see is entirely different.

Read more:

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/10/12/obama-shows-strength-by-recognizing-the-failure-of-the-neoconservative-policy-paul-craig-roberts/

Electricity Storage Taking Off

We've written about the huge opportunity of marrying storage to solar power. When the sun isn't shining, storage kicks in and fills the gap. This allows energy storage during the day to be utilized during the night hours. And, it avoids drawing power from the grid, which can be a big power savings.

Enphase says Asia-Pacific is going to be one place where it's going to profit hugely from storage:

The company plans to sell the products, which combine solar power, storage and energy management technologies, in Australia in the second quarter of 2016, Chief Executive Officer Paul Nahi said in an interview in Sydney. Enphase said on Oct. 6 that it's joining with SA Power Networks in South Australia and Genesis Energy Ltd. in New Zealand to test the systems.
Enphase expects Asia-Pacific to become a "multi-hundred-million-dollar-a-year" market for the company in the coming years and aims to get half of its revenue from outside the U.S., according to Nahi. Tesla Motors Inc. and Panasonic Corp. are among companies jumping into an Australian storage market that Morgan Stanley estimates could be worth A$24 billion ($17 billion) after a surge in the use of solar power in the country. "The fact that Australia is leading the global charge for storage has really reinforced our decision to invest heavily in this area," Nahi said.