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Thursday, February 19, 2015

Industries Going the Way of the Dodo Bird By 2030

It's interesting to realize that some of the leading industries today will cease to be big players at some point in the next 15 years. They will either be gone (like buggy whip manufacturers) or too decimated to play a big role. Here are some of those industries:

  1. Automobile manufacturers. Most will go bankrupt due to autonomous cars. Ride-sharing tends to reduce the number of vehicles on the road by 93%. Car ownership by individuals will disappear—most cars will be summoned via phone app, drive to your current location, pick you up and deliver you to your destination, then move on to their next assignment. Most cars today are used less than 10% of the time, and are very expensive compared to incomes. We don't need so many cars on the road. This also means that new highway construction will be decimated as well because we will have too many lanes for the traffic (autonomous cars will use lane space more efficiently).

  2. The oil industry will virtually disappear as electrics become dominant. An electric motor is 5 times as efficient as an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE). With the number of cars needed being reduced by about 90%, ICE will disappear gradually (except maybe in Cuba, where they will last 50 years). The need for oil will be decimated as well since the only good uses remaining for it are in fertilizers, plastics and pesticides.

  3. The nuclear power industry will bite the dust finally. Too dangerous and no one wants to insure them against catastrophic risks which will run into the $Trillions.

  4. Service stations and auto parts stores will be rarities in 2030. Electric cars need far less service than ICE cars and use far fewer parts which need to be replaced.

  5. Insurance companies. 85% of auto accidents are due to human error. Autonomous cars will have far fewer accidents. This will lead to rock bottom insurance rates and the death of most auto insurance companies.

  6. Electric utilities will go bankrupt because they won't realize until it's too late that they can never pay back the bonds used to construct conventional power plants. Solar will become the dominant source of energy by 2030 and crush virtually all other forms of energy. The public will go off-grid in a very big way, leaving a customer base too small for utilities to serve profitably.