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Saturday, May 23, 2015

More Evidence the Economy Is In Recession

Dave Kranzler collects the fundamentals which point toward the US economy being in recession now, or very close to one:

There are many other economic data series which are indicating a rapid decline in economic activity across the country. For instance today (Thursday, May 21) the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing index plunged to -13 in May from April's -7 reading. Wall Street had been expecting the index to print at -2. Looked at collectively, I believe the data I presented above indicates the likelihood that the U.S. economy is currently in a recession. If not a recession, then it's headed into one. I believe this economic downturn has a high probability of being worse and last longer than the 2009 recession. While it's impossible to forecast when the stock market will reflect my expected reality with a sharp sell-off, I would advise investors to move their stock holdings into short term Treasuries and other short duration havens of wealth preservation.

Note that the stock market will be falling 50% or more in the future. The decline could start at any time, even overnight when US investors are sleeping.