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Monday, June 29, 2015

A Roseanne Roseannadanna Market

John Hussman writes in Durable Returns, Transient Returns:
This is not a Goldilocks market. No, this is a Roseanne Roseannadanna market (Gilda Radner’s character from Saturday Night Live). Though investors seem to believe that catalysts for a market plunge should be known ahead of time, they’re likely to learn in hindsight that the specific catalyst didn’t matter. History teaches that once obscene valuation is coupled with overvalued, overbought, overbullish extremes, and is then joined by deterioration in market internals, the outcome is already baked in the cake. Afterward, investors discover “Well Jane, it just goes to show you… It’s always something. If it’s not one thing, it’s another.”
The market is on tap to lose half of its value multiple times in the next big half cycle. The last two half cycles took place during 2000-2003 and 2007-2009. The next one is likely to be even bigger.