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Friday, July 31, 2015

The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market


Only a shift in investor psychology -- i.e. the Elliott wave pattern -- can

By Elliott Wave International

For many commodity investors, the last four years have felt like one long, bad dream. The kind where you're tied to a railroad track as a train heads straight for you -- in slow motion. You can't move, can't scream, can't do anything but lay there and wait for the point of impact. On July 29, that point seemed closer than ever when the S&P GSCI index, a measure of a basket of 24 commodities, plunged to its lowest level in 13 years.

Meanwhile, the bellwether Thomson Reuters Core Commodity CRB Index dove to a 7-year low, having dropped 34%-plus since June 2014.

But, according to the mainstream experts, there's one surefire way to stop the commodity bear market train in its tracks; namely, the Federal Reserve jumps into the conductor's seat and slams on the brakes via easy money and low rates. Here, a July 29 news source cuts to the chase:

"Driving the selloff in commodities are expectations that the Fed will raise borrowing costs in coming months, a move that investors expect to further boost the dollar and pressure the prices of commodities.

"It's hard to see how the Fed would even consider hiking rates against such a weak backdrop."

From our standpoint, it's hard to see how belief in the Fed's ability to re-route the commodity rout persists -- even as the facts say otherwise. Case in point: If maintaining a loose monetary policy is good for commodities, then why did the market crash 60% in 2008 -- the same year the Fed slashed rates seven times to record low of 0-.25% while launching the first round of quantitative easing?

Chalk it up to a glitch, perhaps?

Not likely. Because in 2011, as commodity prices came barreling back to multi-year highs, the same Fed-led explanations reemerged. After all, the world's largest central bank was smack dab in the middle of injecting a few trillion more dollars into the U.S. economy via QE 2 and QE 3. The mainstream saw no reason for the commodity bull run to end, to wit:

In April 2011, the Daily Sentiment Index (prepared by Trade-Futures.com) showed the percentage of commodity bulls at a record 93%.

Yet -- that same month, the Thomson Reuters CRB Index peaked and turned down in the four-year long, 30%-plus bear market we see today.

Despite the Fed's supposed pro-inflation, rate-slashing, money printing campaign, our May 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist identified a perfect bearish trifecta on the CRB Index's price chart: A three-step, countertrend rally ... inside of a parallel trend channel ... at a [Fibonacci] 62% retracement:

With all these changes occurring, the commodity rebound -- it has not been a bull market -- is probably over.

I think the dollar is starting a 5-year bull market, which will coincide with a bear market in everything else."

Two years into the commodity selloff, our November 2013 Elliott Wave Theorist put the fallacy of a Fed-led market to bed:

Charts tell the truth. Notice the four short arrows on the chart. Based on their positions, you might think they would mark the timing of accurate sell signals generated by a secret indicator. But there's no secret indicator. These happen to be the times at which the Fed launched its inflationary QE programs!

Investors believed the Fed's QE actions would be bullish for commodities. But -- ironically yet naturally -- every launch of a new QE program provided an opportunity to sell commodities near a high.

None of the believers in omnipotent monetary authorities and their pledges to inflate saw any of those changes coming. Meanwhile, we couldn't see how it could turn out any other way.


Understanding the Fed eBook

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Fed Can't Stop the Commodity Bear Market. EWI is the world's largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The message our lead dog is sending. Flight-to-quality into bonds.

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. It's been a nice rally, especially in the Dow. What's next?

Investors Fleeing Fossil Fuels

The inexorable Law of Supply and Demand is at work. Robert Scribbler writes in Climate Change Changes Everything — Massive Capital Flight From Fossil Fuels Now Under Way:

Massive Investor Flight Away From Fossil Fuels

And this year it appears that a number of investors are starting to get it. Get the fact that there’s no future left in burning coal, oil or gas. No future worth living in at least. For investors by the droves are now engaged in removing their assets from fossil fuel based companies.

Some are being pushed out by divestment campaigns run by responsible college students. Students who look to the future and don’t like what they see and so, encourage their schools to scrub carbon emissions from their investment funds. It’s a campaign that has also touched churches — including the great Catholic Church itself — setting off a broadening wave of religious-based divestment. And it’s a campaign that has reached into the sovereign wealth funds of entire nations.

Still more are being shoved along by a death spiral of coal, oil and gas prices. A wholesale disintegration of the paper billions of dollars once claimed on fossil fuel company balance sheets. A disintegration led by plummeting demand for fossil fuel products due to a combined increased efficiency and an ever more rapid adoption of non carbon based energy sources.

It is perhaps for these combined reasons and due to the encroachment of ever-more inexpensive and accessible renewable energy sources that has led to a massive flight of capital away from fossil fuel based energy. Arch Coal, for example, has lost 95 percent of its market capitalization in the past year. Other corporations who’ve cast their lot with continued fossil fuel burning have suffered similar, though slightly less dramatic fates. Suncor, one of the chief tar sands extractors, has lost 20 percent of its value, Exxon Mobil 12 percent, Chevron 18 percent, Chesapeake Energy 55 percent, Conoco Phillips 24 percent, Suncoke 36 percent, and Peabody 85 percent. These are industry-wide losses that are in the process of setting off a string of malinvestment-based bankruptcies that would put the ‘tempest in a teapot’ hype surrounding Solyndra to shame. In essence, it’s the epic and compounding failure of drill, baby, drill politics.

Investors told late last year that oil, gas and coal fortunes would rebound have been sorely disappointed. Coal continues its 5 year long string of monthly bankruptcies. Oil and gas companies trail the S&P 500 by 40 percent. And more than 118 billion dollars in new oil projects has now been shelved. Growing ever more sour on what appears to be an escaped-from-reality chorus of fossil fuel cheerleaders, investors have finally had enough and gone in search of greener pastures. In this case, green pastures include a wind farm now being built off Cape Cod. One that will provide renewable energy based electricity to 30,000 homes that previously got their electricity through dirty, expensive and hothouse-amplifying diesel fuel burning.

It’s the kind of choice investors and the rest of us need to be making if we’re going to avoid the worst of this climate change nightmare we’ve already set in play. And we’d better get a move on. For as commenter Mblanc from the UK recently noted in response to a previous post:

I’ve got a really bad feeling about this. That feeling has been building up over the last few months. Every time I see an anomaly map these days, I can’t help feeling that we in the UK are right in the firing line of Greenland ice melt, and the firing might have already started.

It’s starting. Climate change changes everything — makes our world, our nations and our homes less secure, more vulnerable in the path of oncoming and ever more violent weather. But, if Hansen and other scientists have it right, we can still avoid the worst impacts if we don’t listen to the fossil fuel cheerleaders and keep making all the wrong choices. Thankfully, it appears investors may have wised up a bit. Let’s hope that trend continues.

How Free Energy From Space Can Produce Clean Water

One of the biggest problems is the availability of clean water. A group in Egypt may have found an answer which uses free energy from space—the sun, in other words.

Innovative System to Extract Water from Air Using Solar Energy describes a way to extract water from the air using free energy from space. It works by adsorbing water during the day out of the air and collecting it in a tank at night. It costs about $100 to build and just works to produce up to 2.3 L of water per square meter.

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. What is the lead dog stock index saying right now about the possibility of a rally?

Monday, July 27, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Markets at turning points this week. What goes up will come down?

Is Global Warming the Central Issue for 2016?

The Democratic candidates for the 2016 Presidential campaign seem to be coming together to make Global Warming the main issue. ThinkProgress reports:

Hillary Clinton is going all in on renewable energy.

On Sunday evening, the Democratic presidential candidate released a fact sheet detailing her plan to fight climate change, and it focuses heavily on promoting clean energy generation across the country.

Among other things, the plan includes a promise to install half a billion solar panels by 2021, or the end of Clinton’s first term. That would represent a 700 percent increase from current installations, she said. Clinton also promised that, if elected, enough renewable energy would be produced to power every home in the country within 10 years.

“We can make a transition over time from a fossil fuel economy, predominantly, to a clean renewable energy economy, predominantly,” Clinton said in Iowa on Sunday, Yahoo reported.

Democratic contender Martin O’Malley arguably has an even more aggressive climate agenda. His plan is to make the country powered completely by renewable energy by 2050 — meaning no fossil fuel use at all. He has condemned President Obama for approving offshore drilling, supporting domestic oil production, and shying away from bold stances on high-carbon tar sands oil from Canada, which would be transported by the Keystone XL pipeline if it were approved.

“We cannot meet the climate challenge with an all-of-the-above energy strategy, or by drilling off our coasts, or by building pipelines that bring oil from tar sands in Canada,” O’Malley wrote in an op-ed published last month.

Clinton’s other Democratic rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) hasn’t released an official climate plan yet. But in an interview with the Washington Post in May, he said he would go further than President Obama has in tackling the problem.

Sanders’ plan, he said, “would look like a tax on carbon; a massive investment in solar, wind, geothermal; it would be making sure that every home and building in this country is properly winterized; it would be putting substantial money into rail, both passenger and cargo, so we can move towards breaking our dependency on automobiles. And it would be leading other countries around the world.”

If the Democrats make Global Warming the central issue in the campaign, the Republican Party will be facing very strong headwinds, making their hold on Congress tenuous at best. And, recapturing the White House for the GOP virtually impossible.

The biggest worry, though: Getting a Democratic sweep of the Congress and the Presidency and then seeing a replay of the Clinton-Gore Administration, which dropped the ball on Global Warming. They weren't even as effective as the Bush-Cheney Republican Administration which followed them in office.

Do We Need to Bring Back Internment Camps?

By Ron Paul, originally published at Ron Paul Institute For Peace and Prosperity.

Last week, Retired General Wesley Clark, who was NATO commander during the US bombing of Serbia, proposed that “disloyal Americans” be sent to internment camps for the “duration of the conflict.” Discussing the recent military base shootings in Chattanooga, TN, in which five US service members were killed, Clark recalled the internment of American citizens during World War II who were merely suspected of having Nazi sympathies. He said: “back then we didn’t say ‘that was freedom of speech,’ we put him in a camp.”

He called for the government to identify people most likely to be radicalized so we can “cut this off at the beginning.” That sounds like “pre-crime”!

Gen. Clark ran for president in 2004 and it’s probably a good thing he didn’t win considering what seems to be his disregard for the Constitution. Unfortunately in the current presidential race Donald Trump even one-upped Clark, stating recently that NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden is a traitor and should be treated like one, implying that the government should kill him.

These statements and others like them most likely reflect the frustration felt in Washington over a 15 year war on terror where there has been no victory and where we actually seem worse off than when we started. The real problem is they will argue and bicker over changing tactics but their interventionist strategy remains the same.

Retired Army Gen. Mike Flynn, who was head of the Defense Intelligence Agency during the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, told al-Jazeera this week that US drones create more terrorists than they kill. He said: “The more weapons we give, the more bombs we drop, that just … fuels the conflict.”

Still Washington pursues the same strategy while expecting different results.

It is probably almost inevitable that the warhawks will turn their anger inward, toward Americans who are sick of the endless and costly wars. The US loss of the Vietnam war is still blamed by many on the protesters at home rather than on the foolishness of the war based on a lie in the first place.

Let’s hope these threats from Clark and Trump are not a trial balloon leading to a clampdown on our liberties. There are a few reasons we should be concerned. Last week the US House passed a bill that would allow the Secretary of State to unilaterally cancel an American citizen’s passport if he determines that person has “aided” or “abetted” a terrorist organization. And as of this writing, the Senate is debating a highway funding bill that would allow the Secretary of State to cancel the passport of any American who owes too much money to the IRS.

Canceling a passport means removing the right to travel, which is a kind of virtual internment camp. The person would find his movements restricted, either being prevented from leaving or entering the United States. Neither of these measures involves any due process or possibility of appeal, and the government’s evidence supporting the action can be kept secret.

We should demand an end to these foolish wars that even the experts admit are making matters worse. Of course we need a strong defense, but we should not provoke the hatred of others through drones, bombs, or pushing regime change overseas. And we must protect our civil liberties here at home from government elites who increasingly view us as the enemy.

Sunday, July 26, 2015

Hillary Clinton: Global Warming's Threat To America (Video)

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Stocks took it on the chin last week. Are we near a turn to the upside now?

Saturday, July 25, 2015

Obama's Hypocrisy Exposed Again

Over the years, we've noticed a tendency for Barack Obama to say the right things and do the wrong things. At first, it could be rationalized as an inexperienced politician trying to maximize the approval of citizens. But, it became clear that this man is an inveterate liar who sold his soul to the highest bidder. His blather is not to be believed.

With Global Warming having been proved beyond a shadow of a doubt as the major challenge for the continuation of life on Earth, you would think the president would be fighting the fossil fuel industry on every front. Sadly, the ethical sham that is Obama is proving he's a chameleon whose colors are set by who's next with bribe money.

The latest proof comes from Obama's approval for Shell to drill in the Arctic. We don't need more oil and we certainly don't need more climate change in the Arctic. Obama will go down in history as yet another corrupt politician who should have been spending more time in the Big House than in the White House.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Have the central bankers created a permanently-high stock market plateau? Could be.

New York City: We Hardly Knew You

If you want to see New York City, do so soon. It's not going to be a viable city for too much longer.

Climate scientist James Hansen and fellow scientists have just published a forecast for sea level rise that says sea levels are likely to rise by 50 feet in the next 50 years. This will flood New York City and many other coastal cities around the world. The first to go will likely be Miami, which regularly sees flooding at high tides right now.

The UN's IPCC is wrong in assuming that seas will only rise 3 feet this century. Instead, the rise is likely to be much more. Hansen et al. have studied what happened the last time CO2 was at this level: seas were much higher. This was during the last interglacial period called the Eemian. The UN thinks we should keep the total rise in Earth's temperature to 2°C over pre-industrial levels, but that would result in a 50-foot rise in seas if Hansen's group is right. Hansen's paper proposes that we keep the rise to just 1½°C. But, since the temperature of the Earth has already risen about a degree already, that leaves just ½°C for temperatures to rise. Moreover, given the level of CO2 in the atmosphere already, most of that is already “baked in the cake.”

Only an immediate reversal of CO2 emissions and return to lower levels can possibly head off these catastrophic sea level rises. This would include a moratorium on building new coal-fired generators as well.

A reasonable person can only conclude that humanity has set its course for disaster and will not turn away from the consequences of both greed and folly. The politicians have lied to us for years about why they cannot take action to avert disaster. Maybe it will soon be time for the population to take action to punish those who have set humanity on this course.

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Buy the dip is new mantra despite givebacks. A very short term rally could end quickly, though.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Disappointment on Apple sees the collapse spreading to the blue chips.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Only four stocks pushed the NASDAQ-100 to new, all-time highs. Optical illusion?

June 2015: Earth's Warmest June on Record

Jeff Masters of Weather Underground reports that June 2015 was the warmest June ever:
June 2015 was Earth's warmest June since global record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA also rated June 2015 as the warmest June on record. June 2015's warmth makes the year-to-date period (January - June) the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July continues to intensify, and strong El Niño events release a large amount of heat to the atmosphere, typically boosting global temperatures by at least 0.1°C. This extra bump in temperature, when combined with the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, makes it likely that 2015 will be Earth's second consecutive warmest year on record. Four of the six warmest months in recorded history (for departure from average) have occurred this year, according to NOAA.

Ron Paul: Iran Agreement Boosts Peace, Defeats Neocons

By Ron Paul

Last week’s successfully concluded Iran agreement is one of the two most important achievements of an otherwise pretty dismal Obama presidency. Along with the ongoing process of normalizing relations with Cuba, this move shows that diplomacy can produce peaceful, positive changes. It also shows that sometimes taking a principled position means facing down overwhelming opposition from all sides and not backing down. The president should be commended for both of these achievements.

The agreement has reduced the chance of a US attack on Iran, which is a great development. But the interventionists will not give up so easily. Already they are organizing media and lobbying efforts to defeat the agreement in Congress. Will they have enough votes to over-ride a presidential veto of their rejection of the deal? It is unlikely, but at this point if the neocons can force the US out of the deal it may not make much difference. Which of our allies, who are now facing the prospect of mutually-beneficial trade with Iran, will be enthusiastic about going back to the days of a trade embargo? Which will support an attack on an Iran that has proven to be an important trading partner and has also proven reasonable in allowing intrusive inspections of its nuclear energy program?

However, what is most important about this agreement is not that US government officials have conducted talks with Iranian government officials. It is that the elimination of sanctions, which are an act of war, will open up opportunities for trade with Iran. Government-to-government relations are one thing, but real diplomacy is people-to-people: business ventures, tourism, and student exchanges.

I was so impressed when travel personality Rick Steves traveled to Iran in 2009 to show that the US media and government demonization of Iranians was a lie, and that travel and human contact can help defeat the warmongers because it humanizes those who are supposed to be dehumanized.

As I write in my new book, Swords into Plowshares:

Our unwise policy with Iran is a perfect example of what the interventionists have given us—60 years of needless conflict and fear for no justifiable reason. This obsession with Iran is bewildering. If the people knew the truth, they would strongly favor a different way to interact with Iran.
Let’s not forget that the Iran crisis started not 31 years ago when the Iran Sanctions Act was signed into law, not 35 years ago when Iranians overthrew the US-installed Shah, but rather 52 years ago when the US CIA overthrew the democratically-elected Iranian leader Mossadegh and put a brutal dictator into power. Our relations with the Iranians are marked by nearly six decades of blowback.

When the Cold War was winding down and the military-industrial complex needed a new enemy to justify enormous military spending, it was decided that Iran should be the latest “threat” to the US. That’s when sanctions really picked up steam. But as we know from our own CIA National Intelligence Estimate of 2007, the stories about Iran building a nuclear weapon were all lies. Though those lies continue to be repeated to this day.

It is unfortunate that Iran was forced to give up some of its sovereignty to allow restrictions on a nuclear energy program that was never found to be in violation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. But if the net result is the end of sanctions and at least a temporary reprieve from the constant neocon demands for attack, there is much to cheer in the agreement. Peace and prosperity arise from friendly relations and trade – and especially when governments get out of the way.

Re-blogged from Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity.

Sunday, July 19, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. The equity is collapsing internally now.

The Stock Market Collapse Has Started

Friday's market reminds us of two other tops, one in 2000 and one in 2007. The parallels are clear as day. Our preliminary #SubscriberNotes describes why the stock market collapse has already begun.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Are we near the end of the run?

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Time to hunker down as holding long stocks is the risk.

New Report on the Current Bubble in Markets

Exclusive invitation: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a new subscriber report, A Bubble in Trouble. On an exclusive, limited-time basis, they've allowed us to share it with you, for FREE. Learn more and read their research-packed report now >>

Exclusive invitation: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released a new subscriber report, A Bubble in Trouble. On an exclusive, limited-time basis, they've allowed us to share it with you, for FREE. Learn more and read their research-packed report now >>

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Great profits on paper. But, is it time cash in our chips and short this puppy?

Monday, July 13, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Why the current rally is doomed to fail.

First Battery-Powered Airplane To Cross the English Channel

Airbus' E-Fan battery-powered airplane takes off from England and lands in France last Friday to become the first battery-powered plane to cross the English Channel:

Greece Today, America Tomorrow?

By Ron Paul from Ron Paul Institute For Peace and Prosperity

The drama over Greece’s financial crisis continues to dominate the headlines. As this column is being written, a deal may have been reached providing Greece with yet another bailout if the Greek government adopts new “austerity” measures. The deal will allow all sides to brag about how they came together to save the Greek economy and the European Monetary Union. However, this deal is merely a Band-Aid, not a permanent fix to Greece’s problems. So another crisis is inevitable.

The Greek crisis provides a look into what awaits us unless we stop overspending on warfare and welfare and restore a sound monetary system. While most commentators have focused on Greece’s welfare state, much of Greece’s deficit was caused by excessive military spending. Even as its economy collapses and the government makes (minor) cuts in welfare spending, Greece’s military budget remains among the largest in the European Union.

Despite all the handwringing over how the phony sequestration cuts have weakened America’s defenses, the United States military budget remains larger than the combined budgets of the world’s next 15 highest spending militaries. Little, if any, of the military budget is spent defending the American people from foreign threats. Instead, the American government wastes billions of dollars on an imperial foreign policy that makes Americans less safe. America will never get its fiscal house in order until we change our foreign policy and stop wasting trillions on unnecessary and unconstitutional wars.

Excessive military spending is not the sole cause of America’s problems. Like Greece, America suffers from excessive welfare and entitlement spending. Reducing military spending and corporate welfare will allow the government to transition away from the welfare state without hurting those dependent on government programs. Supporting an orderly transition away from the welfare state should not be confused with denying the need to reduce welfare and entitlement spending.

One reason Greece has been forced to seek bailouts from its EU partners is that Greece ceded control over its currency when it joined the European Union. In contrast, the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is the main reason the US has been able to run up huge deficits without suffering a major economic crisis. The need for the Federal Reserve to monetize ever-increasing levels of government spending will eventually create hyperinflation, which will lead to increasing threats to the dollar’s status. China and Russia are already moving away from using the dollar in international transactions. It is only a matter of time before more countries challenge the dollar’s reserve currency status, and, when this happens, a Greece-style catastrophe may be unavoidable.

Despite the clear dangers of staying on our recent course, Congress continues to increase spending. The only real debate between the two parties is over whether we should spend more on welfare or warfare. It is easy to blame the politicians for our current dilemma. But the politicians are responding to demands from the people for greater spending. Too many Americans believe they have a moral right to government support. This entitlement mentally is just as common, if not more so, among the corporate welfare queens of the militarily-industrial complex, the big banks, and the crony capitalists as it is among lower-income Americans.

Congress will only reverse course when a critical mass of people reject the entitlement mentality and understand that the government is incapable of running the world, running our lives, and running the economy. Therefore, those of us who know the truth must spread the ideas of, and grow the movement for, limited government, free markets, sound money, and peace.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

Friday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Expecting more profits from short term trading directly ahead.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

Greece wants Germany to repay €279bn it was forced to loan the Nazi authorities during WWII

In a shocking turn, Greece is demanding that Germany repay its own debts before demanding debts be repaid by Greece. The Independent:
The Greek government has demanded that Germany pays it back €279bn (£205bn) in loans Greece was forced to give the Nazi authorities who occupied the country during World War Two.
Greece has long demanded reparations from Germany but in a statement on Monday Greece's deputy finance minister Dmitris Mardas put an exact figure on the amount the country says it is owed for the first time.
Mr Mardas was speaking at a committee set up by the country's left-wing Syriza government to calculate how much money Germany owed Greece.

Thursday, July 09, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Which index should turn up in relative strength to warn the trend is turning up? We tell you tonight.

Wednesday, July 08, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Can Shanghai's crash be stopped? Or, even derailed?

PIIGS: Big Users of Oil

Gail Tverberg makes an interesting point. The PIIGS countries (Greece, Portugal, Italy and Ireland) turn out to be very big users of oil—and are financial basket cases. Is there a connection between high oil usage and debt? What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common explores this aspect of modern debt.

Tuesday, July 07, 2015

Tuesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Oil prices continue to decline toward our long term target of ten dollars per barrel.

Monday, July 06, 2015

Monday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Punk breadth, but the buyers are playing the seasonal tendencies in equities.

Germany Has Never Paid Its Debts

The Greek crisis needs to be put into perspective: Greece will never repay its debts.

Yet, Germany demands that Greece repay its debts. Germany should remember that it has never repaid any of its own debts.

Thus, the German people should realize that if they require Greece to pay its debts, it should start by paying its own debts as a good example.

Reference Thomas Piketty in a Zeit Online interview.

Sunday, July 05, 2015

Today's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. Greece could be within 24 hours of a new bailout deal.

Friday, July 03, 2015

The End of the Oil Age

Norman Pagett writes in The End of the Oil Age:

But how can we define an oil age? It has been about 150 years since the first deep oilwells were sunk, and just over 200 years since the viable steam engine was developed. The two are linked, because the steam engine made deep drilling of oilwells possible and gave us access to a hundred million years worth of fossilized sunlight. Perhaps we have not strictly had an oil age, but rather the first and only age where we enjoy vast amounts of surplus energy that we have extracted from hydrocarbon fuels, of which oil is the most energy dense. It has brought us material wealth, and the means to indulge in wholesale killing of each other and all other species. It gave excesses of food and a population that consumed that food and grew to five or six times the sustainable level of the planet. In the timespan of human existence, the ascendance of modern industrialised man has been a short flash of light and heat that has briefly lifted us out of the mire of the middle ages, but at a considerable cost to the environment.

Pagett is another gloom-and-doomer who explains why the old growth model is totally busted. And, what that means for our species. But, is the ultimate outcome of our civilization to fail miserably? The probability seems high, but humans over history have shown that last-minute saves are our speciality. Perhaps when faced with extinction, we will change our model to fit the environment. Moreover, we may be able to change our environment to fit within it. Perhaps we can find a “living wage” that doesn't doom us to fall back into the Dark Ages.

One part of our solution is what Kent Moors calls “Space Energy.” Planet Earth is surrounded in space by vast amounts of energy. If we could tap this energy, it would dwarf the amounts we extract from the ground in the form of fossil fuels. Moreover, it's highly likely that we are going to tap this infinite source of power in the next few decades. Thus, one problem is solved: unlimited, virtually-free energy for our use, replacing dirty fuel with clean, sustainable energy. As Dr. Moors points out, Albert Einstein didn't win his Nobel Prize for relativity. He won it for “Space Energy.” Now, 110 years later, we are on the verge of “Space Energy” taking the lead in energy and eliminating fossil fuels entirely.

Thursday, July 02, 2015

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Cash markets are closed on Friday, but CMEgroup futures will trade until 13:00.

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

Wednesday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops

#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Illiquid markets going into Sunday's Greek referendum magnify risk for traders.