|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website.|
Monday, November 30, 2015
Sunday, November 29, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes #WeekendAnalysis have been updated on the website. A choppy week ahead, but seasonals point up in most indices.|
Saturday, November 28, 2015
Thursday, November 26, 2015
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Markets will be closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and open for a half-day session on Friday.|
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Monday, November 23, 2015
On the eve of the most important global climate meeting of our lifetime, hundreds of thousands are hitting the streets worldwide, with love and hope, to show leaders how to lead, and fight for a beautiful, equitable, post-fossil fuel 100% clean energy future. Find your march here: http://globalclimatemarch.org
Sunday, November 22, 2015
Saturday, November 21, 2015
"Bloomberg Risk Takers" profiles Elon Musk, the entrepreneur who helped create PayPal, built America's first viable fully electric car company, started the nation's biggest solar energy supplier, and may make commercial space travel a reality in our lifetime. (Source: Bloomberg)
Bloomberg Television offers extensive coverage and analysis of international business news and stories of global importance. It is available in more than 310 million households worldwide and reaches the most affluent and influential viewers in terms of household income, asset value and education levels. With production hubs in London, New York and Hong Kong, the network provides 24-hour continuous coverage of the people, companies and ideas that move the markets.
Thursday, November 19, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The big picture should make any long term investor quite nervous here.|
Wednesday, November 18, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The dead rat bounce continues in the stock market with a buy signal this morning.|
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
Monday, November 16, 2015
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Saturday, November 14, 2015
How could the UN climate talks in Paris next month ratchet up the national plans (INDCs) and succeed in limiting global warming? Drew Jones of Climate Interactive presents scenarios from the C-ROADS simulation and explores how far these contributions get us, and what more is needed to keep warming to within 2° Celsius (3.6°F) of temperature change above pre-industrial levels.
The C-ROADS simulation, which created the scenarios, is available for download along with all assumptions and equations at climateinteractive.org.
Thursday, November 12, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. Internals continue to collapse in the stock market. Deja vu all over again?|
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Tuesday, November 10, 2015
Monday, November 09, 2015
|Last week, the government reported that 271,000 new jobs were created in the month of October, much to the surprise of markets. Stocks and bonds tumbled on the belief that this would give the Fed permission to raise interest rates to slow an overheating economy.
Apparently, no one realized that the Employment Report is one of the most lagging indicators of the economy. The good news on jobs reflects the economy as it was several months ago. It's not unusual to see a high number of new jobs being reported just before the economy dips into recession. Other data series which are more up-to-date show the economy in a position which has led to recession shortly thereafter. That's not to say they are saying we're about to enter recession. But, they are saying that the Fed had better not take the most lagging indicator into consideration when hiking interest rates.
With corporate earnings sliding, many corporations are over-indebted today due to borrowing money to buy back their shares and artificially boost earnings. The JNK ETF reflects a strong downtrend that is a forecast of a falling economy. The last time the Fed hiked rates in 2007 they did so in a declining economy and that led to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Will they do it again?
Well, when you consider that most of the Fed members are lawyers and not economists, it doesn't look good for the economy or the country.
Economic blossoms may bloom again in the Land of the Rising Sun
By Elliott Wave International
The winter season is a common metaphor for a bleak period in someone's life: Borrowing a line from Shakespeare, John Steinbeck titled his final novel "The Winter of Our Discontent."
Nikolai Kondratieff used "winter" to describe the worst part of an economic cycle. Indeed, the famous Russian economist used all four seasons as metaphors for the four natural phases of expansion and contraction that an economy goes through in 50 or 60 years.
Take a look at this chart:
Japan's economy has gone through a very long winter. The nation has experienced deflation for most of the past 25 years.
Here's a September 25 Financial Times headline:
Japan falls back into deflation for first time since 2013
But a change of seasons may be closer than many observers realize. Review this chart and commentary excerpted from a Special Report by Mark Galasiewski in the October issue of Elliott Wave International's monthly Global Market Perspective:
Is this sleeping giant ready to offer opportunities for investors?
You can learn now in a new free report from Elliott Wave International, 3 Reasons to Get Excited About Japanese Stocks.
You'll get Galasiewski's Special Section on Japan, as presented to Elliott Wave International subscribers in Global Market Perspective.
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Friday, November 06, 2015
|Jules Peck summarizes last week's Guildhall meeting in the city of London discussing climate change in From Business as Usual to Business as Urgent -- City Signs Up for One Way Ticket to the Low Carbon Economy:
A major theme running throughout the event was that of stranded carbon assets, a concept that many leading figures have come out in support of. For example Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England has said that the "vast majority of reserves are unburnable" if global temperature rises are to be limited to below 2C and that this represents "potentially huge losses" to asset managers. Because of this the Bank of England and the G20 are both now examining the risk this issue poses to the global economy.
Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, said:
In a phrase that was echoed by other speakers Figueres said that "we are not in a world of business as usual, we're in a world of business as urgent" and argued that, while a climate change deal to be agreed in Paris in December will not come up with a global carbon price, this was not relevant because "We already have a strong carbon price signal" in many jurisdictions around the world, with almost 80% of global emissions under some sort of carbon pricing now.
Figeures made it clear that the Paris deal will sketch out a roadmap to a net-zero emission economy in which most reserves booked by fossil fuel companies will not be able to be burnt and will therefore become stranded assets. But she warned that, despite this, the energy industry is still banking on ever-rising demand for its products as if nothing has changed. For Figueres, "these [projections] are pure fiction".
A shift out of carbon assets is rapidly underway:
From other panel discussions it became clear that many investors are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance commented that talk of such litigation risks "is setting off alarm bells that there could be long tail risks" for those not incorporating such issues into their analysis and that "Paris gives us all a non-exchangeable, one-way ticket to a low-carbon economy."
Karmali said that because of this, and the increased risks associated with carbon heavy assets, his bank has now accelerated its shift out of coal stocks to "a very low level" and that Bank of America now have three times the exposure to renewables as they do to coal. Underlining how significant this shift is, he described this as "remarkable for a conservative institution like ourselves".
Mark Lewis of Barclays shook the audience with a cautionary tale that ten years ago, the utility sector ignored the signs of the coming tsunami of renewables and that those utilities lost 60-80% of their value. He also pointed out that sell side analysts completely misread the way the market would shift on renewables. He warned that translating what comes out of the Paris talks for financial analysts will not be straight forward and it will need their clients to be calling for more incorporation of carbon risk in asset mangers investments for this issue to become of focus for most mainstream financial analysis.
Echoing what Figueres had said, Lewis underlined that a huge market shift away from high carbon assets is underway, whether or not analysts are always recognising this, and quoted the CEO of energy company ENEL that "there is a huge tide flowing, you can decide in which direction to swim but the flow is not in your control and nor is the direction it is flowing."
However, despite some city institutions being more and more engaged with these issues, Helena Morrissey, CEO of Newton and chairman of Investment Management Association, warned that the impact of climate policy is still not high enough on agenda of most investment companies and that there is a need for an end to silos and a shift to integrated investing in which climate change becomes fully part of the mainstream way of doing thing for city institutions.
Morrissey warned her peers that "We slept walked into the financial crisis and we have no excuse for sleepwalking into a climate crisis" and called for more sense of urgency from the investment community who should stop delaying tough decisions for lack of a clear enough roadmap from politicians. She also called for more pressure from clients and others to encourage bodies like the Investment Association to take carbon risk more seriously.
Anthony Hobley of Carbon Tracker echoed this idea of sleepwalking into crisis saying that the old energy order is living on borrowed time and compared what is happening today with the inevitable shift away from carbon to the decline of Britain's canals in the mid-19th century when railways burst onto the scene and drove down cargo tolls, destroying the business model.
Giving Kodak and Blockbuster as more recent examples, Hobley pointed out that technology takes no prisoners and to a long graveyard of industries and companies that stuck doggedly to business as usual at key inflexion points and said that "Incumbents invariably fail to see it coming."
Hobley underlined what other speakers had said in terms of the message expected to come from the December Paris climate summit saying that "Most international laws or treaties are not about breaking new ground. They are about codifying what the major powers are doing anyway. The success of Paris will be in codifying what is already happening. For incumbents and for you as investors it will open a window for you to see the transition that is already taking place. It will give the incumbents an opportunity to get on the train before it departs the station."
Thursday, November 05, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. The stock market continues to collapse on the inside. It's smaller than it looks from the outside.|
|It's highly likely that fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil will not be allowed, either by the free market or government fiat, to extract all of their reserves in the ground. That means the Carbon Bubble will be popped, sooner or later, and asset prices of fossil fuel companies have a strong future downtrend to contend with.
Since Exxon has done the most research on the subject of Climate Change by their own admission, you would think they had a plan: the handwriting is on the wall. So far, the only part of the plan we've seen them implement is funding climate change deniers. That hasn't worked, obviously. What exactly is their plan?
Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, appeared on Fox Business yesterday, but gave no hint that he even understood the basics of the changes that are already in the pipeline. When asked about the effect of self-driving cars, he answered that it would increase the demand for gasoline because more cars would be sold. That answer shows that he hasn't thought the process through at all. When driverless cars are sold, they are most likely going to be electric cars, not gas-guzzlers, and that will reduce demand for internal combustion cars.
Electric cars have so many advantages over fossil fuel cars that the economics of electrics will trounce fossil fuels. They have far fewer moving parts, they will be much more economical to operate and batteries will drop sharply in the near future. That means driverless cars will be cheaper to own and operate than fossil fuel cars.
This one point reveals that the head of ExxonMobil has no plans on how to deal with the bursting of the Carbon Bubble. If you had to make out a list of the Too Big To Fail companies, ExxonMobil would surely be near the top of the list. That means that when ExxonMobil goes down in flames, it will be the taxpayers who are called on to bail them out of their misery. Just like General Motors in 2008 in fact. That's not only a shame, it's a disgrace for the public, which have been misled and lied to by the fossil fuel companies for several decades.
|Bill McKibben, author of "The End of Nature" and head of 350.org, talks about efforts to bring awareness to climate change and global warming. He speaks with Olivia Sterns on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
Wednesday, November 04, 2015
|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. How will the upward wedge on the SPX break? Two possibilities present themselves.|
Tuesday, November 03, 2015
Monday, November 02, 2015
Sunday, November 01, 2015
Leading scientists, business figures, academics and MPs have called on world leaders to adopt the Global Apollo Program (GAP) by the time of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris, in December 2015.
The GAP plan for internationally coordinated RD&D (research, development and demonstration) into renewable energy technology aims to make renewable energy cheaper than fossil fuels.
This can be achieved by increasing governments spending on research to $15bn a year for the next 10 years.
That compares to almost $100 billion currently invested in defence R&D globally each year.
For more information visit www.globalapolloprogram.org or follow us on Twitter @global_apollo.
Climate change is the greatest threat to global stability and prosperity. By 2035 the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will exceed the critical level consistent with a temperature rise of less than 2˚C.
There is no shortage of energy on earth. The sun delivers 5000 times more power to the surface of the earth than humanity needs. The cost of renewables has been falling. But not fast enough. Renewable energy gets less than 2% of the world’s publicly funded RD&D (Research, Development and Demonstration).
The Global Apollo Program’s aim is to accelerate the decarbonisation of the world economy through more rapid technical progress, achieved through an internationally-coordinated program of research and development over a 10-year period.
The Program will focus on several key areas: generation from renewables, electricity storage, grid management, the electrification of transport, and the use of hydrogen.
The results of all research will be made public but patentable intellectual property will be protected and remain with those who made the discoveries.
This strategy is about making energy cheaper and cleaner. It is an optimistic, pro-growth, pro-technology, pro-business solution.
This is the greatest scientific challenge in the world today but it is solvable. We can create a world powered by limitless clean energy.
Official Website: The Global Apollo Program To Combat Climate Change