|#SubscriberNotes have been updated on the website. A market that's in the home stretch and it's key.|
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Weakest economic recovery in seven decades gets weaker |
By Elliott Wave International
Most people extrapolate present trends into the future. But yesterday's trend can look like day vs. night when tomorrow arrives.
Almost no one expected deflation when the December 2007 Elliott Wave Theorist said:
Inflation has raged, but deflation is next.
What followed was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression and the weakest economic recovery since World War II.
The American economy remains weak. Growth is at the lowest level in more than three decades. ... Wages have been rising at the slowest pace since the 1980s. ... This is the weakest recovery since World War II ... . (U.S. News & World Report, August 23)
A co-founder of AOL and the chairman of Quicken Loans just graded the U.S. economy: They scored its performance near the bottom of the class.
Grading the U.S. economy, the rosiest scores from two billionaires on [October 23] would average about 68, equal to a D+ on a report card. (CNBC, October 23)
Deflationary pressures are increasingly evident.
U.S. consumer prices fell 0.1% in August. Producer prices have been even weaker. The nation's PPI fell 2.9% in August, and it's declined every month since December 2014.
These charts are from our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby:
The graphs show several key economic measures that reflect years of broad-based distress, despite historic monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The chart above of real mean and median U.S. personal income shows another long-term reversal that is hitting most Americans in their pocketbook. While the mean measure shows, on average, that personal income peaked with the real estate boom in 2006, the median measure shows that half of all U.S. citizens are earning less money in real terms than they were in 2000. The five-wave form of the rise in mean income is further Elliott wave evidence that the decline is about to accelerate.
Our July Elliott Wave Financial Forecast said, "Deflation is just getting started." The October Financial Forecast provided a reminder of that warning and added that deflation "is already deeply entrenched in many flagship quarters of the global economy."
Get the full picture of what we see as a worldwide deflationary trend in our new report, Deflation and the Devaluation Derby.
Here's what you will learn:
Just recall how swiftly the 2007-2009 financial crisis unfolded. We anticipate that the next global financial crisis could be even more sudden and severe.
Bursting the Carbon Bubble: Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change
|Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes in Fossil fuel companies risk plague of 'asbestos' lawsuits as tide turns on climate change:
Oil, gas and coal companies face the mounting risk of legal damages for alleged climate abuse as global leaders signal an end to business-as-usual and draw up sweeping plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions, Bank of America has warned.
Investors in the City are increasingly concerned that fossil fuel groups and their insurers are on the wrong side of a powerful historical shift and could be swamped with exhorbitant class-action lawsuits along the lines of tobacco and asbestos litigation in the US. "It is setting off alarm bells that there could be these long tail risks," said Abyd Karmali, Bank of America's head of climate finance.
Fossil fuel companies have known for decades of the risk that their underground reserves were being overvalued.
Now, it seems the movement to keep those resources in the ground is unstoppable.
While the exact contours are still unclear, Paris is likely to sketch a way towards zero net emissions later this century. It implies that most fossil fuel reserves booked by major oil, gas and coal companies can never be burned.
A deal would also send a moral signal with legal ramifications. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank England, warned last month that by those who had suffered losses from climate change may try to bring claims on third-party liability insurance.
He specifically mentioned the parallel of asbestos claims in US courts, which have mounted over the years to $85bn and devastated some Lloyd's syndicates.
Mr Carney said it would be "premature to draw too close an analogy with climate risks" and acknowledged that previous carbon lawsuits have failed, but he warned that the risk is "significant, uncertain and non-linear". The UN has already floated ideas on compensation.
This is a far bigger problem for the fossil fuel companies than asbestos and tobacco ever were.
It's the bursting of the biggest financial bubble in history, the bursting of the Carbon Bubble.